首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 78 毫秒
1.
We studied the wave characteristics during the very severe cyclonic storm THANE which crossed the east coast of India between Puducherry and Cuddalore based on waves measured at a location in Bay of Bengal at 14 m water depth. Objective of the paper is to document the highest wave height measured in the nearshore waters of east coast of India. On 29 December 2011, cyclone passed within 77–315 km of the wave measurement location with maximum wind speed of 46.3 m/s (90 knots) and resulted in maximum wave height of 8.1 m. Maximum wave height recorded is 0.54 times the water depth, and the ratio of crest height to wave height of the highest wave recorded is 0.65. Maximum value of significant wave height estimated using the parametric wave model for deep-water conditions is 6.4 m, whereas the measured value is 6 m indicating that parametric wave model estimates the wave height reasonably well (within 8 % error) during the cyclone period.  相似文献   

2.
The devastation due to storm surge flooding caused by extreme wind waves generated by the cyclones is a severe apprehension along the coastal regions of India. In order to coexist with nature’s destructive forces in any vulnerable coastal areas, numerical ocean models are considered today as an essential tool to predict the sea level rise and associated inland extent of flooding that could be generated by a cyclonic storm crossing any coastal stretch. For this purpose, the advanced 2D depth-integrated (ADCIRC-2DDI) circulation model based on finite-element formulation is configured for the simulation of surges and water levels along the east coast of India. The model is integrated using wind stress forcing, representative of 1989, 1996, and 2000 cyclones, which crossed different parts of the east coast of India. Using the long-term inventory of cyclone database, synthesized tracks are deduced for vulnerable coastal districts of Tamil Nadu. Return periods are also computed for the intensity and frequency of cyclones for each coastal district. Considering the importance of Kalpakkam region, extreme water levels are computed based on a 50-year return period data, for the generation of storm surges, induced water levels, and extent of inland inundation. Based on experimental evidence, it is advocated that this region could be inundated/affected by a storm with a threshold pressure drop of 66 hpa. Also it is noticed that the horizontal extent of inland inundation ranges between 1 and 1.5 km associated with the peak surge. Another severe cyclonic storm in Tamil Nadu (November 2000 cyclone), which made landfall approximately 20 km south of Cuddalore, has been chosen to simulate surges and water levels. Two severe cyclonic storms that hit Andhra coast during 1989 and 1996, which made landfall near Kavali and Kakinada, respectively, are also considered and computed run-up heights and associated water levels. The simulations exhibit a good agreement with available observations from the different sources on storm surges and associated inundation caused by these respective storms. It is believed that this study would help the coastal authorities to develop a short- and long-term disaster management, mitigation plan, and emergency response in the event of storm surge flooding.  相似文献   

3.
A three-dimensional numerical model is described to study theresponse of a coastal ocean excited by a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. The numericalexperiments have been carried out using the model to understand the dynamics and thermodynamics ofthe ocean due to different cyclonic systems approaching in different directions. In the firstexperiment, the model is used to simulate the vertical thermal structure of the ocean as a response ofpassage of the less intensified 1997 cyclone, which was skirting the east coast of India before crossingthe Bangladesh coast. The simulations are compared with the buoy data available during the storm period.In the next experiment, it is considered an idealized cyclone with hurricane winds movingnormal to the east coast of India crossing between Visakhapatnam and Kakinada to evolve thermalstructure and currents of the ocean. A net decrease of the SST of 6–7 °C is simulated whenthe severe cyclonic storm moved over the coastal ocean.  相似文献   

4.
The statistical relationship between the summer monsoon rainfall over all India, northwest India and peninsular India, onset dates of monsoon and the index of mid latitude, (35° to 70°N) meridional circulation at 500 hPa level over different sectors and hemisphere based on 19 years (1971–1989) data, have been examined. The results indicate that (i) the summer monsoon rainfalls over all India, northwest India and peninsular India show a significant inverse relationship with the strength of meridional index during previous January over sector 45°W to 90°E. (ii) The summer monsoon rainfalls over all India and peninsular India show a significant inverse relationship with the strength of meridional index during previous December over sector 90°E to 160°E, (iii) The summer monsoon rainfall over northwest India shows a significant direct relationship with the meridional index during previous May over sector 160°E to 45°W. Significant negative relationships are also observed between the meridional circulation indices of previous October (sector 3 and 4), previous December (sectors 1, 3 and 4), previous winter season (sector 3 and 4) and the onset dates of summer monsoon over India. The meridional circulation index thus can have some possible use for long range forecasting of monsoon rainfall over all India, northwest India and peninsular India, as well as the onset dates of monsoon.  相似文献   

5.
Objective analysis of daily rainfall at the resolution of 1° grid for the Indian monsoon region has been carried out merging dense land rainfall observations and INSAT derived precipitation estimates. This daily analysis, being based on high dense rain gauge observations was found to be very realistic and able to reproduce detailed features of Indian summer monsoon. The inter-comparison with the observations suggests that the new analysis could distinctly capture characteristic features of the summer monsoon such as north-south oriented belt of heavy rainfall along the Western Ghats with sharp gradient of rainfall between the west coast heavy rain region and the rain shadow region to the east, pockets of heavy rainfall along the location of monsoon trough/low, over the east central parts of the country, over north-east India, along the foothills of Himalayas and over the north Bay of Bengal. When this product was used to assess the quality of other available standard climate products (CMAP and ECMWF reanalysis) at the gird resolution of 2.5°, it was found that the orographic heavy rainfall along Western Ghats of India was poorly identified by them. However, the GPCC analysis (gauge only) at the resolution of 1° grid closely discerns the new analysis. This suggests that there is a need for a higher resolution analysis with adequate rain gauge observations to retain important aspects of the summer monsoon over India. The case studies illustrated show that the daily analysis is able to capture large-scale as well as mesoscale features of monsoon precipitation systems. This study with data of two seasons (2001 and 2003) has shown sufficiently promising results for operational application, particularly for the validation of NWP models.  相似文献   

6.
Coastal flooding induced by storm surges associated with tropical cyclones is one of the greatest natural hazards sometimes even surpassing earthquakes. Although the frequency of tropical cyclones in the Indian seas is not high, the coastal region of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar suffer most in terms of life and property caused by the surges. Therefore, a location-specific storm surge prediction model for the coastal regions of Myanmar has been developed to carry out simulations of the 1975 Pathein, 1982 Gwa, 1992 Sandoway and 1994 Sittwe cyclones. The analysis area of the model covers from 8° N to 23° N and 90° E to 100° E. A uniform grid distance of about 9 km is taken along latitudinal and longitudinal directions. The coastal boundaries in the model are represented by orthogonal straight line segments. Using this model, numerical experiments are performed to simulate the storm surge heights associated with past severe cyclonic storms which struck the coastal regions of Myanmar. The model results are in agreement with the limited available surge estimates and observations.  相似文献   

7.
Mumbai city, the economical capital of India, is located on the west coast of stable intra-plate continental region of Peninsular India which has an experience of significant historical earthquakes in the past. The city stood as the fourth most populous city in the world. Recent seismo-tectonic studies of this city highlighted the presence of active West coast fault and Chiplun fault beneath the Deccan basalt. In the present study, spatial variability of probabilistic seismic hazard for Mumbai region (latitudes of 18.85–19.35°N and longitudes of 72.80–73.15°E at a grid spacing of 0.05°) which includes Mumbai city, Suburban, part of Thane district and Navi Mumbai, in terms of ground motion parameters; peak horizontal acceleration and spectral acceleration at 1.0-s period for 2 and 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years are generated. The epistemic uncertainty in hazard estimation is accounted by employing seven different ground motion prediction equations developed for worldwide shallow crustal intra-plate environments. Further, the seismic hazard results are deaggregated for Mumbai (latitude 18.94°N, longitude 72.84°E) to understand the relative contributions of earthquake sources in terms of magnitude and distance. The generated hazard maps are compared with the zoning specified by Indian seismic code (IS1893: Part 1 in Indian standard criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, Part 1—General provisions and buildings. Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, India, 2002) for rocky site. Present results show an underestimation of potential seismic hazard in the entire study region by non-probabilistic zoning prescribed by IS1893: Part 1 with significantly higher seismic hazard values in the southern part of Navi Mumbai.  相似文献   

8.
Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data to identify the major modes of oscillation over the summer monsoon region (7·5° N-32·5° N, 62·5° E-142·5° E) for two summers 1975 and 1977, each consisting of 120 days from 18 May through 14 September. Power spectrum analysis of time-dependent coefficients of the dominant eigenvectors exhibit spectral peaks in the long (<15 days) and short (4–8 days) period ranges. A detailed study is confined to 4–8 day filtered OLR perturbations. Standard deviation patterns of filtered OLR show large intraseasonal variability in the activity of monsoon disturbances over the Bay of Bengal. Lag-correlations reveal systematic westward movement of 4–8 day OLR perturbations from the Western Pacific to the Bay of Bengal in both summers. EOF analysis is also applied to 4–8 day filtered OLR data to further investigate possible teleconnections in disturbance activity between the Western Pacific and the Bay of Bengal. A compositing technique is utilized to detail the structural features (zonal wavelength and phase speed) of 4–8 day OLR disturbances. Composite diagrams for summer 1975 showed that OLR disturbances which originated near northeastern Burma moved west ward with phase speed (wavelength) of about 3–4° per day (≈20–25° longitude) reaching maximum intensity in the Bay of Bengal. In summer 1977, the disturbance activity in the Bay of Bengal was associated with OLR perturbations which originated in the Western Pacific and moved westward across the South China Sea and Indochina with phase speed (wavelength) of above 8° per day (40° longitude).  相似文献   

9.
Relationship of outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) with convective available potential energy (CAPE) and temperature at the 100-hPa pressure level is examined using daily radiosonde data for a period 1980–2006 over Delhi (28.3°N, 77.1°E) and Kolkata (22.3°N, 88.2°E), and during 1989–2005 over Cochin (10°N, 77°E) and Trivandrum (8.5°N, 77.0°E), India. Correlation coefficient (R xy) between monthly OLR and CAPE shows a significant (~???0.45) anti-correlation at Delhi and Kolkata suggesting low OLR associated with high convective activity during summer (seasonal variation). Though, no significant correlation was found between OLR and CAPE at Cochin and Trivandrum (low latitude region); analysis of OLR and temperature (at 100-hPa) association suggests that low OLR peaks appear corresponding to low temperature at Delhi (R xy~ 0.30) and Kolkata (R xy ~ 0.25) during summer. However, R xy between OLR and temperature becomes opposite as we move towards low latitudes (~8°–10°N) due to strong solar cycle influence. Large scale components mainly ENSO and quasi-biennial oscillaton (QBO) that contributed to the 100-hPa temperature variability were also analyzed, which showed that ENSO variance is larger by a factor of two in comparison to QBO over Indian region. ENSO warm conditions cause warming at 100-hPa over Delhi and Darwin. However, due to strong QBO and solar signals in the equatorial region, ENSO signal seems less effective. QBO, ENSO, and solar cycle contribution in temperature are found location-dependent (latitudinal variability) responding in consonance with shifting in convective activity regime during El Niño, seasonal variability in the tropical easterly jet, and the solar irradiance.  相似文献   

10.
In the present study, diagnostic studies were undertaken using station-based rainfall data sets of selected stations of Guyana to understand the variability of rainfall. The multidecadal variation in rainfall of coastal station Georgetown and inland station Timehri has shown that the rainfall variability was less during the May–July (20–30%) of primary wet season compared to the December--January (60–70%) of second wet season. The rainfall analysis of Georgetown based on data series from 1916 to 2007 shows that El Niño/La Niña has direct relation with monthly mean rainfall of Guyana. The impact is more predominant during the second wet season December--January. A high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model was made operational to generate real-time forecasts up to 84 h based on 00 UTC global forecast system (GFS), NCEP initial condition. The model real-time rainfall forecast during July 2010 evaluation has shown a reasonable skill of the forecast model in predicting the heavy rainfall events and major circulation features for day-to-day operational forecast guidance. In addition to the operational experimental forecast, as part of model validation, a few sensitivity experiments are also conducted with the combination of two cloud cumulus (Kain--Fritsch (KF) and Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ)) and three microphysical schemes (Ferrier et al. WSM-3 simple ice scheme and Lin et al.) for heavy rainfall event occurred during 28–30 May 2010 over coastal Guyana and tropical Hurricane ‘EARL’ formed during 25 August–04 September 2010 over east Caribbean Sea. It was observed that there are major differences in the simulations of heavy rainfall event among the cumulus schemes, in spite of using the same initial and boundary conditions and model configuration. Overall, it was observed that the combination of BMJ and WSM-3 has shown qualitatively close to the observed heavy rainfall event even though the predicted amounts are less. In the case of tropical Hurricane ‘EARL’, the forecast track in all the six experiments based on 00 UTC of 28 August 2010 initial conditions for the forecast up to 84 h has shown that the combination of KF cumulus and Ferrier microphysics scheme has shown less track errors compared to other combinations. The overall average position errors for all the six experiments taken together work out to 103 km in 24, 199 km in 48, 197 km in 72 and 174 km in 84 h.  相似文献   

11.
Prediction of heavy rainfall events due to severe convective storms in terms of their spatial and temporal scales is a challenging task for an operational forecaster. The present study is about a record-breaking heavy rainfall event observed in Pune (18°31′N, 73°55′E) on October 4, 2010. The day witnessed highest 24-h accumulated precipitation of 181.3 mm and caused flash floods in the city. The WRF model-based real-time weather system, operating daily at Centre for Development of Advanced Computing using PARAM Yuva supercomputer showed the signature of this convective event 4-h before, but failed to capture the actual peak rainfall and its location with reference to the city’s observational network. To investigate further, five numerical experiments were conducted to check the impact of assimilation of observations in the WRF model forecast. First, a control experiment was conducted with initialization using National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)’s Global Forecast System 0.5° data, while surface observational data from NCEP Prepbufr system were assimilated in the second experiment (VARSFC). In the third experiment (VARAMV), NCEP Prepbufr atmospheric motion vectors were assimilated. Fourth experiment (VARPRO) was assimilated with conventional soundings data, and all the available NCEP Prepbufr observations were assimilated in the fifth experiment (VARALL). Model runs were compared with observations from automated weather stations (AWS), synoptic charts of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Comparison of 24-h accumulated rainfall with IMD AWS 24-h gridded data showed that the fifth experiment (VARALL) produced better picture of heavy rainfall, maximum up to 251 mm/day toward the southern side, 31 km away from Pune’s IMD observatory. It was noticed that the effect of soundings observations experiment (VARPRO) caused heavy precipitation of 210 mm toward the southern side 49 km away from Pune. The wind analysis at 850 and 200 hPa indicated that the surface and atmospheric motion vector observations (VARAMV) helped in shifting its peak rainfall toward Pune, IMD observatory by 18 km, though VARALL over-predicted rainfall by 60 mm than the observed.  相似文献   

12.
Numerical simulation of a typical tropical thunder storm event at Pune (18.53°N, 73.85°E), India, has been performed using the three nested domain configuration of Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research Weather Model (version 3.2). The model simulations have been compared with observations. Sensitivity to cumulus parameterization schemes, namely Betts–Miller (BM), Grell–Devenyi (GD), and Kain–Fritsch (KF), for simulation of vertical structure and time evolution of weather parameters has been evaluated using observations from automatic weather station and global positioning system radiosonde ascents. Comparison of spatial distribution of 24-h accumulated rain with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data shows that BM scheme could simulate better rain than GD and KF schemes. The BM scheme could well simulate the development of storm and heavy rain as it could generate sufficiently humid and deep layer in the lower and middle atmosphere, along with co-existence of updrafts and downdrafts and frozen hydrometeors at the middle level and rain water near the surface.  相似文献   

13.
Rainfall is one of the pivotal climatic variables, which influence spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. In this study, we have attempted to understand the interannual long-term trend analysis of the daily rainfall events of ≥?2.5 mm and rainfall events of extreme threshold, over the Western Ghats and coastal region of Karnataka. High spatial resolution (0.25°?×?0.25°) daily gridded rainfall data set of Indian Meteorological Department was used for this study. Thirty-eight grid points in the study area was selected to analyze the daily precipitation for 113 years (1901–2013). Grid points were divided into two zones: low land (exposed to the sea and low elevated area/coastal region) and high land (interior from the sea and high elevated area/Western Ghats). The indices were selected from the list of climate change indices recommended by ETCCDI and are based on annual rainfall total (RR), yearly 1-day maximum rainfall, consecutive wet days (≥?2.5 mm), Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), annual frequency of very heavy rainfall (≥?100 mm), frequency of very heavy rainfall (≥?65–100 mm), moderate rainfall (≥?2.5–65 mm), frequency of medium rainfall (≥?40–65 mm), and frequency of low rainfall (≥?20–40 mm). Mann-Kendall test was applied to the nine rainfall indices, and Theil-Sen estimator perceived the nature and the magnitude of slope in rainfall indices. The results show contrasting trends in the extreme rainfall indices in low land and high land regions. The changes in daily rainfall events in the low land region primarily indicate statistically significant positive trends in the annual total rainfall, yearly 1-day maximum rainfall, SDII, frequency of very heavy rainfall, and heavy rainfall as well as medium rainfall events. Furthermore, the overall annual rainfall strongly correlated with all the rainfall indices in both regions, especially with indices that represent heavy rainfall events which is responsible for the total increase of rainfall.  相似文献   

14.
Simulation of a flood producing rainfall event of 29 July 2010 over north-west Pakistan has been carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This extraordinary rainfall event was localized over north-west Pakistan and recorded 274 mm of rainfall at Peshawar (34.02°N, 71.58°E), within a span of 24 h on that eventful day where monthly July normal rainfall is only 46.1 mm. The WRF model was run with the triple-nested domains of 27, 9, and 3 km horizontal resolution using Kain–Fritsch cumulus parameterization scheme having YSU planetary boundary layer. The model performance was evaluated by examining the different simulated parameters. The model-derived rainfall was compared with Pakistan Meteorological Department–observed rainfall. The model suggested that this flood producing heavy rainfall event over north-west region of Pakistan might be the result of an interaction of active monsoon flow with upper air westerly trough (mid-latitude). The north-west Pakistan was the meeting point of the southeasterly flow from the Bay of Bengal following monsoon trough and southwesterly flow from the Arabian Sea which helped to transport high magnitude of moisture. The vertical profile of the humidity showed that moisture content was reached up to upper troposphere during their mature stage (monsoon system usually did not extent up to that level) like a narrow vertical column where high amounts of rainfall were recorded. The other favourable conditions were strong vertical wind shear, low-level convergence and upper level divergence, and strong vorticity field which demarked the area of heavy rainfall. The WRF model might be able to simulate the flood producing rainfall event over north-west Pakistan and associated dynamical features reasonably well, though there were some spatial and temporal biases in the simulated rainfall pattern.  相似文献   

15.
Wavenumber-frequency spectral analysis of different atmospheric variables has been carried out using 25 years of data. The area considered is the tropical belt 25°S–25°N. A combined FFT-wavelet analysis method has been used for this purpose. Variables considered are outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), 850 hPa divergence, zonal and meridional winds at 850, 500 and 200 hPa levels, sea level pressure and 850 hPa geopotential height. It is shown that the spectra of different variables have some common properties, but each variable also has few features different from the rest. While Kelvin mode is prominent in OLR and zonal winds, it is not clearly observed in pressure and geopotential height fields; the latter two have a dominant wavenumber zero mode not seen in other variables except in meridional wind at 200 hPa and 850 hPa divergences. Different dominant modes in the tropics show significant variations on sub-seasonal time scales.  相似文献   

16.
A very severe cyclonic storm ‘Thane’ developed over the Bay of Bengal during 25–30 December 2011, crossed the Tamilnadu coast between Pondicherry and Cuddalore (southeast coast of India) in early hours of 30 December with a wind speed 120–140 km/h. The offshore tide record reveals that the surge started to generate around 1100 hours on 29 December 2011 with a height 0.4 m and later raised to 0.68 m at the time of land fall, that is, early hours (0000 hours) of 30 December 2011. Field reconnaissance survey on surge run-up and inundation distance at 15 selected locations of cyclone affected areas reveals that the vulnerability levels are highly variable along the coast. The inundation distance extended up to 30–230 m landward from the shoreline and run-up reached to 1.6–3.2 m above chart datum depending upon the cross-shore geometry of the location. In the areas (Verranampattinam, Chinamudaliyar kuppam and Silver beach) near cyclone landfall, the run-up was up to 2.5–3.2 m and the inundation distance extended up to a maximum of 230 m. However, in the areas located about 150 km north of cyclone landfall, the run-up limited from 1.6 to 1.7 m and the inundation distance extended up to only a maximum of 169 m. The inundation distance is mainly influenced by the slope of the beach. In the areas having beach slope between 1 in 135 and 1 in 220, the inundation distance was 210–230 m. However, in the areas having beach slope 1 in 17 to 1 in 34, the inundation distance is restricted between 35 and 50 m.  相似文献   

17.
Two bottom-mounted recording Doppler current profilers (RDCP) were deployed at nearshore locations (approximately 3 and 8 km offshore, in about 18 m water depth) in the southeast Chukchi Sea, Alaska, from October 2009 to September 2010 (UTC) with the goal of linking observed wave activity—wind-sea and swells—to their synoptic drivers. The northerly RDCP recorded a total of 16 events of elevated wave states: 15 exceeding 1 m significant wave height (SWH), and 1 exceeding 2 m SWH. The southerly RDCP recorded a total of 25 events of elevated wave states: 23 exceeding 1 m SWH, 2 m exceeded on two occasions and a SWH of 3 m was observed. Detailed analysis of the three large events (i.e., SWH events ≥2 m), including comparison with high-resolution reanalysis wind data (North America regional reanalysis), strongly suggested the wave energy evolved from a distant storm and would be defined as swell. Due to the close proximity of the shoreline to the east of the instruments, wind speeds based on reanalysis were constrained so fetch was westerly. Wave direction was also westerly, varying about 25° to the north (clockwise) or the south (counterclockwise) from the wind direction which is believed to be influenced by fetch and the strong current flow located where the nearshore RDCPs were deployed. Shore-fast sea ice is also believed to play a role but shown to only dampen wave activity for 3 months (January–April 2010), thus implying early ice breakup in this nearshore region. Two events appeared to be driven by southwesterly winds associated with cyclonic systems that moved into the eastern Chukchi Sea and then stalled. However, the second storm event appeared to be driven by northwesterly winds associated with a cyclonic system over the Brooks Range, a less common occurrence. Given that the typical storm activity in the region occurs as storms move into the Bering Sea in fall, this represents another potential source for wave conditions posing danger to people on the water or to coastal infrastructure.  相似文献   

18.
Hydrography of the eastern Arabian Sea and associated chemical and biological responses were studied during the withdrawal phase of summer monsoon 2003. The shelf region off the southwest coast of India (10°N–15°N) continued to exhibit upwelling of colder (<28.5 °C), nutrient rich (nitrate >2.0 μM, phosphate >0.8 μM, silicate >4.0 μM) and relatively low oxygenated waters (~180 μM). The vertical advection of nutrients, coupled with anthropogenic terrestrial inputs, enhanced the levels of chlorophyll and primary productivity near the coastal margin off Cochin. The influence of both natural and anthropogenic nutrient loadings on the coastal system of the western continental shelf of India leads to eutrophication and hypoxia with negative impacts on the environment in general and fisheries in particular.  相似文献   

19.
Hazard analysis is the first step in any disaster management activity. Drought is a serious environmental hazard strongly limiting the agricultural production in the tropical countries like India. A comprehensive drought hazard map is useful for multiple perspectives such as agriculture, environment and hydrology. In this study, daily rainfall data of the Climate Prediction Centre during the south-west monsoon season (June–September) of 12 years, over India was analysed. Based on rainfall and rainy days, six indicators of drought were generated which were then synthesized into a composite index of drought hazard for every 10 × 10 km pixel. The weights for the composite index were generated through variance approach. The index has effectively captured the spatial variations in meteorological drought across India by showing a typical pattern with increasing hazardous area from east to west. The drought hazard map also shows considerable agreement with the climate classification map and the drought proneness map reported by other studies. Thus, the current study presents a simple and novel approach for drought hazard analysis, using the routinely available geospatial rainfall data products. The methodology can be extended to other geographies and disasters too. Use of time series data of longer period would improve the reliability of the composite drought hazard index.  相似文献   

20.
The summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa, a state on the eastern coast of India, is more significantly related than Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) to the cyclonic disturbances developing over the Bay of Bengal. Orissa experiences floods and droughts very often due to variation in the characteristics of these disturbances. Hence, an attempt was made to find out the inter-annual variability in the rainfall over Orissa and the frequencies of different categories of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa during monsoon season (June–September). For this purpose, different statistical characteristics, such as mean, coefficient of variation, trends and periodicities in the rainfall and the frequencies of different categories of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa, were analysed from 100 years (1901–2000) of data. The basic objective of the study was to find out the contribution of inter-annual variability in the frequency of cyclonic disturbances to the inter-annual variability of monsoon rainfall over Orissa. The relationship between summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa and the frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa shows temporal variation. The correlation between them has significantly decreased since the 1950s. The variation in their relationship is mainly due to the variation in the frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa. The variability of both rainfall and total cyclonic disturbances has been above normal since the 1960s, leading to more floods and droughts over Orissa during recent years. The inter-annual variability of seasonal rainfall over Orissa and the frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa during monsoon season show a quasi-biennial oscillation period of 2–2.8 years. There is least impact of El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual variability of both the seasonal rainfall over Orissa and the frequencies of monsoon depressions/total cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号