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1.
The devastating effects of fossil fuels on the environment, limited natural sources and increasing demand for energy across the world make renewable energy sources more important than in the past. The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference resulted in a global agreement on net zero CO2 emissions shortly after the middle of the twenty-first century, which will lead to a collapse of fossil fuel demand. The focus of the study is to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system in Iran by 2030 using an hourly resolution model. The optimal sets of renewable energy technologies, least-cost energy supply, mix of capacities and operation modes were calculated and the role of storage technologies was examined. Two scenarios have been evaluated in this study: a country-wide scenario and an integrated scenario. In the country-wide scenario, renewable energy generation and energy storage technologies cover the country’s power sector electricity demand. In the integrated scenario, the renewable energy generated was able to fulfil both the electricity demand of the power sector and the substantial electricity demand for water desalination and synthesis of industrial gas. By adding sector integration, the total levelized cost of electricity decreased from 45.3 to 40.3 €/MWh. The levelized cost of electricity of 40.3 €/MWh in the integrated scenario is quite cost-effective and beneficial in comparison with other low-carbon but high-cost alternatives such as carbon capture and storage and nuclear energy. A 100% renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a real policy option.  相似文献   

2.
Oil plays an important role in ensuring national energy security. It is of great significance for China’s energy policy-making to predict the future oil demand scientifically. Combined with the grey correlation analysis and combination model of ARIMA-BP neural network, data on six driving variables of China’s GDP, international oil price, energy consumption per unit GDP, industrial structure, urbanization rate and oil production in 1999-2018 were selected to predict China’s oil demand under different scenarios in 2020-2030. The results show that the selected driving variables are highly correlated with China’s oil demand, and the combined model is more accurate than the single model. From 2020 to 2030, China’s oil demand and import will continue to increase, but the growth rate will gradually slow down. Under the three scenarios, the predicted average oil demand in 2020, 2025 and 2030 will be 675.7703 million tons, 732.2725 million tons and 760.8155 million tons, respectively; the predicted average external dependence in 2020-2030 will be 76.19%, far exceeding the international warning line of 50%. The contradiction between China’s oil supply and demand will be more acute, and accordingly, some policy suggestions were put forward.  相似文献   

3.
Tunisia has invested heavily in irrigation schemes to secure water supply. The management of irrigation systems has been denied to local water user associations (WUA). These WUAs are assimilated to a natural monopoly. They sell water to farmers at the unit operational cost (marginal production cost). Such a price does not allow for budgetary balance, which leads to a chronic deficit of these WUA. It also does not reflect the scarcity of the resource, a situation that contributed to irrigated area expansion, an increase in the agricultural water demand, and misallocation of the resource. Low cost recovery results in poor maintenance, infrastructure deterioration, and water distribution inefficiency. The purpose of this paper is two folds: (i) to propose an alternative price scheme which ensures cost recovery and water use efficiency and (ii) to examine the impact of this new price on the farms’ surplus. To achieve this goal, we assumed that irrigation’s water price increase will be necessary. A field survey of 75 farmers in the center of Tunisia was conducted to estimate the irrigation water demand function. We also used the data collected on 36 WUAs in the region to estimate the irrigation water production cost function using the OLS method for both demand and cost functions, and the peak and the non-peak irrigated demand functions (i.e., summer and winter). The methodology consisted of maximizing social surplus to derive optimal prices for both seasons. The main results show that an increase in price in the range of 11 to 15 % in the winter and 50 to 75 % in the summer results in 11 % decrease of the annual quantity consumed and in a 2 % increase in the social surplus.  相似文献   

4.
Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions of the world in the next decades with rising flood losses as a consequence. First and foremost, it can be attributed to the expansion of settlement and industrial areas into flood plains and the resulting accumulation of assets. For a future-oriented and a more robust flood risk management, it is therefore of importance not only to estimate potential impacts of climate change on the flood hazard, but also to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of flood exposure due to land use changes. In this study, carried out in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria), various land use scenarios until 2030 were developed by means of a spatially explicit land use model, national spatial planning scenarios and current spatial policies. The combination of the simulated land use patterns with different inundation scenarios enabled us to derive statements about possible future changes in flood-exposed built-up areas. The results indicate that the potential assets at risk depend very much on the selected socioeconomic scenario. The important conditions affecting the potential assets at risk that differ between the scenarios are the demand for new built-up areas as well as on the types of conversions allowed to provide the necessary areas at certain locations. The range of potential changes in flood-exposed residential areas varies from no further change in the most moderate scenario ‘Overall Risk’ to 119 % increase in the most extreme scenario ‘Overall Growth’ (under current spatial policy) and 159 % increase when disregarding current building restrictions.  相似文献   

5.

In this work, a dynamic GIS modeling approach is presented that incorporates: a) geoinformatic techniques, b) 55-year historical meteorological data, and c) field measurements, in order to estimate soil erosion risk in intensively cultivated regions. The proposed GIS-based modeling approach includes the estimation of soil erosion rates due to surface water flow under current and future climate change scenarios A2 and B1 for the years 2030 and 2050. The soil erosion was estimated using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). The proposed soil erosion model was validated using field measurements at different sites of the study area. The results show that an extended part of the study area is under intense erosion with the mean annual loss to be 4.85 t/ha year−1. Moreover, an increase in rainfall intensity, especially for scenario B1, can generate a significant increase (32.44 %) in soil loss for the year 2030 and a much more (50.77 %) for the year 2050 in comparison with the current conditions. Regarding the scenario A2, a slight decrease (1.85 %) in soil loss was observed for the year 2030, while for 2050 the results show an adequate increase (7.31 %) in comparison with the present. All these approaches were implemented at one of the most productive agricultural areas of Crete in Greece dominated by olive and citrus crops.

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6.
Taiwan’s feed-in tariff (FIT) policy, revised in 2009, sets a goal to increase the installation capacity 6,500–10,000 MW (megawatts) of renewable power systems in 20 years. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the goal can be achieved or not. This paper presents an overview of FIT policies implemented in some leading countries and their performance of renewable electricity installed capacity and generation. This paper presents two outlook scenarios for Taiwan’s renewable power installation capacity by using Germany as a benchmark after a detailed analysis and discussion on Taiwan’s historical evolution of renewable energies. The Moderate Scenario projects that total cumulative capacity of renewable power systems increases from 5,813.8 MW in 2010 to 7,245.99 MW in 2030, while the Optimistic Scenario estimates the total renewable power capacity will be 11,977.14 MW in 2030. The total increase in the new installation capacity attain to 1,432.19 and 6,163.64 MW for the two scenarios, respectively.  相似文献   

7.
Recent changes in land use practices, such as increase in orange orchards in central India, has put undue pressure on the groundwater resources. Excess withdrawal from the aquifers has resulted in groundwater table decline. The stage of groundwater development in some watersheds has reached 155.85 %, converting these into overexploited watersheds. In the present research paper, a groundwater flow model has been developed to evaluate the groundwater system in a basaltic terrain with Bazada formation. A conceptual model has been developed and calibrated for steady and transient states and the sensitivity analysis was carried out. Future predictions, for current scenario where present practices are continued and for scenario with 20 % reduction in groundwater draft have been made, to select the best strategy for mitigating the problem. The modeling results show that the decline in groundwater level in basaltic and Bazada unconfined aquifers will result into drying up (water level more than 15 m bgl) of 243 km2 area by 2020. To restore the groundwater level, it is simulated that the groundwater draft rate must be reduced by 20 % for next 10 years. It may be achieved by adopting groundwater management strategies, particularly for irrigation sector.  相似文献   

8.
景锦  李鹏远  李天骄 《地球学报》2023,44(2):305-314
在全球能源低碳转型的背景下,白银不仅广泛应用于电子电气、钎焊合金等传统工业领域以及首饰银器和投资领域,更是与光伏、电动汽车和5G技术等绿色清洁能源领域密切相关。本研究采用部门分析法分别预测在既定政策情景(STEPS)、宣布承诺情景(APS)和2050年净零排放情景(NZE)三种情景下光伏、电动汽车领域的白银需求,并使用ARIMA模型分析传统工业领域需求,预测至2035年全球白银需求。研究结果表明,三种情景下, 2035年工业领域对白银的需求量分别为19 360 t、21 621 t和26 894 t。在中情景下(APS情景)低碳领域白银需求量将在2031年超过传统工业领域白银需求量;在高情景下(NZE情景)低碳领域需求量将在2024年超过传统工业领域白银需求量。  相似文献   

9.
不锈钢产业是镍最大的消费领域,对全球镍消费趋势起决定性作用.近年来,电动汽车产业逐渐发展,动力电池对镍需求也逐渐得到重视,该领域的镍消费普遍被认为是最具发展潜力的镍消费领域.本文通过对镍需求的历史和现状进行分析,对未来不锈钢及电动汽车领域等重要部门的镍需求进行了展望,认为未来镍需求将由2019年243万t增长至2030年445万t,其中不锈钢领域仍为其第一大消费领域,电池领域上升为第二大消费领域;通过梳理全球镍资源情况及供应开发情况,认为由于受到疫情冲击,2020年镍矿供需形势紧张状态将有所缓解,但随着未来疫情好转,未来几年内镍仍将处于供需紧张状态;此外,通过梳理镍供应链条,本文认为市场对硫酸镍以及硫化镍矿需求未来有望持续增长,这对镍盐价格将形成有力支撑,对推动全球红土镍矿湿法产能建设也将形成一定促进作用.  相似文献   

10.
A sandwich domestic wastewater-fed dual-chamber microbial fuel cell (MFC) was designed for energy generation and wastewater treatment. The generated power density by the MFC was observed to increase with increasing chemical oxygen demand (COD) of the domestic wastewater. The maximum power density was 251 mW m?2 when the COD was 3400 mg L?1 at a current density of 0.054 mA cm?2 and external resistance of 200 Ω. These values dropped to 60 mW m?2 (76 % lower) and 0.003 mA cm?2 using wastewater 91 % diluted to 300 mg L?1 COD. Maximum removals were: COD, 89 %; nitrite, 60 %; nitrate, 77 %; total nitrogen, 36 %; and phosphate, 26 %. Coulombic efficiency ranged from 5 to 7 %. The use of full-strength domestic wastewater reduces cost, and with improved reactor design, the ultimate goal of large-scale operation could be achieved.  相似文献   

11.
This paper proposes a decision support system for Yamchi reservoir operation in semi-arid region of Iran. The paper consists of the following steps: Firstly, the potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow are predicted. The study then presents the projections of future changes in temperature and precipitation under A2 scenario using the LARS-WG downscaling model and under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) in the northwestern of Iran. To do so, a general circulation model of HadCM3 is downscaled by using the LARS-WG model. As a result, the average temperature, for the horizon 2030 (2011–2030), will increase by 0.77 °C and precipitation will decrease by 11 mm. Secondly, the downscaled variables are used as input to the artificial neural network to investigate the possible impact of climate change on the runoffs. Thirdly, the system dynamics model is employed to model different scenarios for reservoir operation using the Vensim software. System dynamics is an effective approach for understanding the behavior of complex systems. Simulation results demonstrate that the water shortage in different sectors (including agriculture, domestic, industry, and environmental users) will be enormously increased in the case of business-as-usual strategy. In this research, by providing innovative management strategies, including deficit irrigation, the vulnerability of reservoir operation is reduced. The methodology is evaluated by using different modeling tests which then motivates using the methodology for other arid/semi-arid regions.  相似文献   

12.
Evidence for climate change impacts on the hydro-climatology of Japan is plentiful. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the impacts of possible future climate change scenarios on the hydro-climatology of the upper Ishikari River basin, Hokkaido, Japan. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was set up, calibrated, and validated for the hydrological modeling of the study area. The Statistical DownScaling Model version 4.2 was used to downscale the large-scale Hadley Centre Climate Model 3 Global Circulation Model A2 and B2 scenarios data into finer scale resolution. After model calibration and testing of the downscaling procedure, the SDSM-downscaled climate outputs were used as an input to run the calibrated SWAT model for the three future periods: 2030s (2020–2039), 2060s (2050–2069), and 2090s (2080–2099). The period 1981–2000 was taken as the baseline period against which comparison was made. Results showed that the average annual maximum temperature might increase by 1.80 and 2.01, 3.41 and 3.12, and 5.69 and 3.76 °C, the average annual minimum temperature might increase by 1.41 and 1.49, 2.60 and 2.34, and 4.20 and 2.93 °C, and the average annual precipitation might decrease by 5.78 and 8.08, 10.18 and 12.89, and 17.92 and 11.23% in 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for A2a and B2a emission scenarios, respectively. The annual mean streamflow may increase for the all three future periods except the 2090s under the A2a scenario. Among them, the largest increase is possibly observed in the 2030s for A2a scenario, up to approximately 7.56%. Uncertainties were found within the GCM, the downscaling method, and the hydrological model itself, which were probably enlarged because only one single GCM (HaDCM3) was used in this study.  相似文献   

13.
Predicting soil erosion change is an important strategy in watershed management. The objective of this research was to evaluate land use change effects on soil erosion in the north of Iran using five land use scenarios. Three land use maps were created for a period of 25 years (1986–2010) to investigate land use transition and to simulate land use for the year 2030. Additionally, the RUSLE model was used to estimate erosion and the effect of land use change. The results showed that CLUE-s is suitable for modeling future land use transition using ROC curve. The median soil loss in the basis period was 104.52 t ha?1 years?1. Results indicate that the range of soil loss change is 2–32% in simulated period and soil loss value was higher than basis period in all scenarios. Thirty percent decrease in demand scenario has the lowest soil loss in simulated period, and the soil loss value under this scenario will be only 2% more than the basis period. Thus, the soil conversion effects resulted from the demand of each land use.  相似文献   

14.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2007,339(11-12):775-783
Here we explore the effects of projected future changes in global ozone concentrations on premature human mortality, under three scenarios for 2030. We use daily surface ozone concentrations from a global atmospheric transport and chemistry model, and ozone–mortality relationships from daily time-series studies. The population-weighted annual average 8-h daily maximum ozone is projected to increase, relative to the present, in each of ten world regions under the SRES A2 scenario and the current legislation (CLE) scenario, with the largest growth in tropical regions, while decreases are projected in each region in the maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenario. Emission reductions in the CLE scenario, relative to A2, are estimated to reduce about 190,000 premature human mortalities globally in 2030, with the most avoided mortalities in Africa. The MFR scenario will avoid about 460,000 premature mortalities relative to A2 in 2030, and 270,000 relative to CLE, with the greatest reductions in South Asia.  相似文献   

15.
Within the sizable literature on electricity demand relatively little attention is given to regional variations in electricity demand elasticities. This paper investigates 39 electric utility companies having a total of 93 separate operating regions in order to assess the nature of regional electricity demand elasticity variations. Residential, commercial, and industrial demand functions are estimated for each operating region using a flow adjustment model of demand. The resulting electricity price, measure of economic activity, and natural gas price elasticities vary regionally, but not in a systematic manner. The demand elasticities found in each sector range from highly inelastic to highly elastic with the pattern of elasticity variations exhibiting few spatial trends or relationships. Comparisons between operating region results and more aggregated statewide results indicate that statewide and national analysis of electricity demand masks much regional detail — a result which has important implications for energy policy making.  相似文献   

16.
中国的用水何时达到顶峰   总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9  
从中国实际用水增长业已放慢的趋势、已经开始启动的供水价格的大幅上升趋势和水价与用水的关系、经济增长方式由粗放型向集约型转变(高耗水行业已经接近顶峰)和用水与产业结构的关系、日益严格的环境立法和执法对用水的影响、中国水资源本身的限制等5个方面,分析中国的用水变化趋势,提出中国的农业用水量、工业用水量和总用水量目前均已接近顶峰,可望在10年内达到顶峰,最大用水量不大可能超过6500×108m3。  相似文献   

17.
Information on use/land cover change is important for planners and decision makers to implement sustainable use and management of resources. This study was intended to assess the land use land cover (LULC) change in the Koga watershed. The MSS of 1973, TM images of 1986, 1995 and 2011 were used together with survey and demographic data to detect the drivers of land cover changes. The result revealed that a remarkable LULC change occurred in the study area for the past thirty eight years. The area of cultivated and settlement has increased by 7054.6 ha, while, grass and bush lands decreased by 4846.5 and 3376 ha respectively. Wetland also declined from 580.2 ha to 68.3 ha. The growing demand for cultivable land and fuel wood were the major causes to the deterioration of grass and bush lands. Hence, the appropriate land use policy should be employed to sustain available resource in the watershed.  相似文献   

18.
As a main clean energy in China, natural gas has received great attention under the requirement of the low-carbon development strategy. The demand projection of natural gas in China is very important for energy policymakers in future energy sources planning. The natural gas demand is influenced by a series of factors, which have a huge causal impact on demand projection. Therefore, the authors analyzed the influencing factors and the sector consumption of natural gas, and focused on the industrial, residential and transport sector to build a hybrid model. Based on the unit root tests, co-integration test and Granger causality test, the influencing factors of the natural gas demand were identified. Then the grey model and regression analysis were utilized to predict the demand for each factor. Finally, based on the projection above, the total natural gas demand for China will be 6 378.6×108 m3 in 2025.  相似文献   

19.
天然气作为一种优质的清洁能源,在我国低碳经济的发展要求下受到越来越多的关注,分析我国未来天然气需求量可以为我国能源政策提供相关借鉴。影响天然气需求的因素很多,这些因素可以极大影响天然气的需求预测结果。从影响天然气需求预测的影响因子入手,分析了天然气的部门消费量,重点选取工业、生活和交通3个部门作为研究对象,并建立一个混合模型。根据单位根检验、协整方程以及格兰杰因果检验3个因果,确定了天然气需求量的影响因子,然后利用灰色预测和回归分析对每个部门的需求量进行预测。最后,基于以上研究预测我国天然气需求量到2025年将达到6 378亿m3。  相似文献   

20.
中国主要铂族金属供需预测及对策建议   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
铂族金属作为重要的战略性矿产,广泛应用于汽车尾气催化剂、首饰、化工催化剂、电气电子等多个领域。分析了中国铂族金属的供需现状,并运用部门消费法对中国2030年之前的铂、钯和铑3种主要金属的需求总量进行长尺度的预测,同时定量分析了未来中国铂族矿山的供应能力,认为随着国民收入的增加,对首饰及汽车的需求仍会增长,再加上汽车尾气排放标准的严格,2030年之前中国主要铂族金属的需求仍会增长,但受铂族资源禀赋限制,供应依旧乏力。针对这些问题,提出了相关对策建议。  相似文献   

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