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Development of an empirical model for rainfall-induced hillside vulnerability assessment: a case study on Chen-Yu-Lan watershed,Nantou, Taiwan 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Tsu-Chiang Lei Yi-Min Huang Bing-Jean Lee Meng-Hsun Hsieh Kuan-Ting Lin 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(2):341-373
In Taiwan, the hillside is about 70 % of total area. These areas also have steep topography and geological vulnerability. When an event of torrential rain comes during a typhoon, the landslide disasters usually occur at these areas due to the long duration and high intensity of rainfall. Therefore, a design which considers the potential landslide has become an important issue in Taiwan. In this study, a temporal characteristic of landslide fragility curve (LFC) was developed, based on the geomorphological and vegetation factors using landslides at the Chen-Yu-Lan watershed in Taiwan, during Typhoon Sinlaku (September 2008) and Typhoon Morakot (August 2009). This study addressed an effective landslide hazard assessment process, linking together the post-landslide damage and post-rainfall data for LFC model. The Kriging method was used to interpolate the rainfall indices (R 0, R, I) for numerical analysis. Remote sensing data from SPOT images were applied to analyze the landslide ratio and vegetation conditions. The 40-m digital elevation model was used for slope variation analysis in the watershed, and the maximum likelihood estimate was conducted to determine the mean and standard deviation parameters of the proposed empirical LFC model. This empirical model can express the probability of exceeding a damage state for a certain classification (or conditions) of landslides by considering a specific hazard index for a given event. Finally, the vulnerability functions can be used to assess the loss from landslides, and, in the future, to manage the risk of debris flow in the watershed. 相似文献
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Weng Meng-Chia Lin Cheng-Han Shiu Wen-Jie Chao Wei-An Chiu Chia-Chi Lee Ching-Fang Huang Wei-Kai Yang Che-Ming 《Landslides》2022,19(3):687-701
Mega-earthquakes and extreme climate events accompanied by intrinsic fragile geology lead to numerous landslides along mountain highways in Taiwan, causing enormous life and economic losses. In this study, a system for rapid slope disaster information integration and assessment is proposed with the aim of providing information on landslide occurrence, failure mechanisms, and subsequent landslide-affected areas to the highway authority rapidly. The functionality of the proposed system is deployed into three units: (1) geohazard rapid report (GeoPORT I), (2) multidisciplinary geological survey report (GeoPORT II), and (3) site-specific landslide simulation report (GeoPORT III). After landslide occurrence, the seismology-based monitoring network rapidly provides the initial slope disaster information, including preliminary location, event magnitude, earthquake activity, and source dynamics, within an hour. Within 3 days of the landslide, a multidisciplinary geological survey is conducted to collect high-precision topographical, geological, and remote-sensing data to determine the possible failure mechanism. After integrating the aforementioned information, a full-scale three-dimensional landslide simulation based on the discrete element method is performed within 10 days to reveal the failure process and to identify the areas potentially affected by subsequent disasters through scenario modeling. Overall, the proposed system can promptly provide comprehensive and objective information to relevant authorities after the event occurrence for hazard assessment. The proposed system was validated using a landslide event in the Central Cross-Island Highway of Taiwan.
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随着社会经济的发展,人类工程活动日趋强烈,中山市崩塌、滑坡地质灾害呈加剧趋势。根据中山市1:50000地质灾害详细调查数据,结合中山市环境地质特征,对中山市崩塌、滑坡地质灾害的发育规律进行了分析。统计分析表明,4~9月是汛期雨季,是中山市崩塌、滑坡地质灾害的高发季节。崩塌、滑坡地质灾害多发生在坡高10~30m的斜坡带上,均分布于山体坡脚,临近居民区及建筑物,与人类工程活动密切相关。本地区崩塌、滑坡地质灾害具有突发性强、规模小、危害性大等特征,为中山市今后崩塌、滑坡地质灾害防治工作提供基础依据。 相似文献
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秦岭山区地质构造复杂、岩体结构破碎、斜坡类型特殊,是中国地质灾害高发区之一。为了查明秦岭山区崩滑地质灾害发育的主控因子,以南秦河小流域为例,通过野外实地调查和室内综合研究,查明区内滑坡、崩塌地质灾害的发育特征,分析灾害发育的孕灾环境。最后得出,长期构造变形作用下的地层奠定了灾害发育的物质基础,多种结构面对崩滑灾害的形成起着控制作用,斜坡结构类型控制着崩滑灾害的成灾模式,构造断裂控制着崩滑灾害的空间分布,人类工程活动加剧了崩塌和滑坡的发育程度,而极端降雨是崩滑地质灾害发生的主要诱因。 相似文献
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金沙江上游巴塘—德格河段地处青藏高原东部,该区地质、地形、地貌极其复杂,滑坡灾害最为发育,开展区域滑坡易发性评价对防灾减灾工作有着重要的意义。本文以金沙江上游巴塘—德格河段为研究区,在滑坡编录与野外实际调查的基础上,通过对滑坡分布规律和影响因素分析,选取高程、坡度、坡向、曲率、地形起伏度、地表切割度、地表粗糙度、地层岩性、断层、水系和道路等11个影响因子,构建了滑坡易发性评价指标体系。利用皮尔森系数去除高相关性影响因子,运用频率比方法定量分析各个因子与滑坡发育的关系。通过频率比模型选取非滑坡样本,采用集成学习算法模型进行滑坡易发性评价,根据易发性指数将研究区划分为极高易发区、高易发区、中易发区、低易发区及极低易发区5个等级。由滑坡易发性分区图和ROC曲线表明,高和极高易发区主要沿金沙江沿岸和沟谷分布,随机森林模型的成功率曲线下面积AUC=0.84,历史滑坡灾害位于高-极高易发区的灾害数占总滑坡数的84.8%,梯度提升树模型的成功率曲线下面积AUC=0.79,历史滑坡灾害位于高-极高易发区灾害数占总滑坡数的79.3%。由AUC值和历史灾害的分布可知,随机森林模型比梯度提升树模型在本研究区滑坡易发性评价中有着更好的评价精度和更高的预测能力。 相似文献
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《地学前缘(英文版)》2015,6(6)
The governing factors that influence landslide occurrences are complicated by the different soil conditions at various sites.To resolve the problem,this study focused on spatial information technology to collect data and information on geology.GIS,remote sensing and digital elevation model(DEM) were used in combination to extract the attribute values of the surface material in the vast study area of SheiPa National Park,Taiwan.The factors influencing landslides were collected and quantification values computed.The major soil component of loam and gravel in the Shei-Pa area resulted in different landslide problems.The major factors were successfully extracted from the influencing factors.Finally,the discrete rough set(DRS) classifier was used as a tool to find the threshold of each attribute contributing to landslide occurrence,based upon the knowledge database.This rule-based knowledge database provides an effective and urgent system to manage landslides.NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index),VI(Vegetation Index),elevation,and distance from the road are the four major influencing factors for landslide occurrence.The landslide hazard potential diagrams(landslide susceptibility maps) were drawn and a rational accuracy rate of landslide was calculated.This study thus offers a systematic solution to the investigation of landslide disasters. 相似文献
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近年来受多次地震影响,芦山县的地质环境和生态结构较为脆弱,滑坡灾害高发,制约了县内基础建设和经济发展,威胁着人民生命财产安全,研究静态地质环境下芦山县滑坡影响因素的空间分异性,可为区内国土空间规划提供基础资料,为滑坡灾害预测与防治提供数据支持。本文使用信息量模型和地理探测器分析了高程、坡度等12个影响因素与滑坡发育的关系,总结了滑坡发育规律,分析了影响因素的空间分异特征,并使用GIS加权叠加生成了滑坡易发性评价图。研究结果表明: ①滑坡主要集中于高程较低([571,1 300) m)、距道路距离较近([0,300) m)、距水系距离较近([0,300) m)、地形起伏度较小([0,30) m)、坡度较缓([0°,30°))、距断层距离较近([0,600) m)的地区,岩土类型以粉砂质泥岩、泥质粉砂岩、泥岩等软弱沉积岩和砂卵砾石土层的第四系堆积物为主,土地利用类型以建设用地、农业用地等为主; ②滑坡发育主要受高程、距道路距离、工程地质岩组等因素控制,此外土地利用类型、距水系距离、地形起伏度、坡度、距断层距离等因素也有较高的贡献率; ③两种不同影响因素对滑坡发育的作用较单一因素而言均呈现双因子或非线性增强,以高程和距道路距离与其他因素的交互作用最为强烈; ④滑坡高易发区和极高易发区主要分布于东南部中低山峡谷区、丘陵区以及河流沟谷地貌。 相似文献
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黄土高原是我国地质灾害最为发育的地区之一,其中降雨诱发的浅层黄土滑坡又最为典型。以典型黄土地貌区-柳林县为例,应用SINMAP模型,探讨模型在黄土地区的适用性,分析了随着研究区内降雨量的增加,滑坡变形失稳区域的面积变化、分布位置和扩展趋势。研究表明,随着降雨量的增加,滑坡所处位置逐渐由稳定状态向失稳状态发展,位于失稳分区的滑坡数量逐渐增加,说明降雨对该研究区的斜坡稳定性影响较为明显。通过将模拟结果与实际发生的由降雨触发的滑坡灾害进行对比分析,可以得出SINMAP模型在黄土地区,对区域性降雨诱发浅层黄土滑坡稳定性的模拟预测有效,可以用于黄土地区浅层滑坡的稳定性评价研究。 相似文献
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汉台区地处秦巴山区,地质条件复杂,地形地貌差异明显,地质灾害分布极不均匀。2008年“5．12汶川大地震”和2010年陕南山洪后地质灾害频发,严重制约着当地社会经济的发展。在进行详细的地质灾害野外调查和室内资料整理、数理统计分析的基础上,充分的研究了地质灾害的发育特征和分布规律。汉台区地质灾害类型主要有滑坡、崩塌、泥石流三种,滑坡以小型残坡积层滑坡为主、崩塌以中型岩质崩塌为主、泥石流主要由采矿弃渣引发;北部中低山区的河东店镇、武乡镇、汉王镇地质灾害发育,南部平原区地质灾害不发育。地质灾害发育特征及分布规律的研究为地方政府地质灾害的防治、减灾工作提供了依据。 相似文献
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Javed Mallick Ram Karan Singh Mohammed A. AlAwadh Saiful Islam Roohul Abad Khan Mohamed Noor Qureshi 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(7):276
Landslides are natural geological disasters causing massive destructions and loss of lives, as well as severe damage to natural resources, so it is essential to delineate the area that probably will be affected by landslides. Landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) is making increasing implications for GIS-based spatial analysis in combination with multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) methods. It is considered to be an effective tool to understand natural disasters related to mass movements and carry out an appropriate risk assessment. This study is based on an integrated approach of GIS and statistical modelling including fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP), weighted linear combination and MCE models. In the modelling process, eleven causative factors include slope aspect, slope, rainfall, geology, geomorphology, distance from lineament, distance from drainage networks, distance from the road, land use/land cover, soil erodibility and vegetation proportion were identified for landslide susceptibility mapping. These factors were identified based on the (1) literature review, (2) the expert knowledge, (3) field observation, (4) geophysical investigation, and (5) multivariate techniques. Initially, analytical hierarchy process linked with the fuzzy set theory is used in pairwise comparisons of LSM criteria for ranking purposes. Thereafter, fuzzy membership functions were carried out to determine the criteria weights used in the development of a landslide susceptibility map. These selected thematic maps were integrated using a weighted linear combination method to create the final landslide susceptibility map. Finally, a validation of the results was carried out using a sensitivity analysis based on receiver operator curves and an overlay method using the landslide inventory map. The study results show that the weighted overlay analysis method using the FAHP and eigenvector method is a reliable technique to map landslide susceptibility areas. The landslide susceptibility areas were classified into five categories, viz. very low susceptibility, low susceptibility, moderate susceptibility, high susceptibility, and very high susceptibility. The very high and high susceptibility zones account for 15.11% area coverage. The results are useful to get an impression of the sustainability of the watershed in terms of landsliding and therefore may help decision makers in future planning and mitigation of landslide impacts. 相似文献
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Global climate change has increased the frequency of abnormally high rainfall; such high rainfall events in recent years have occurred in the mountainous areas of Taiwan. This study identifies historical earthquake- and typhoon-induced landslide dam formations in Taiwan along with the geomorphic characteristics of the landslides. Two separate groups of landslides are examined which are classified as those that were dammed by river water and those that were not. Our methodology applies spatial analysis using geographic information system (GIS) and models the geomorphic features with 20?×?20 m digital terrain mapping. The Spot 6 satellite images after Typhoon Morakot were used for an interpretation of the landslide areas. The multivariate statistical analysis is also used to find which major factors contribute to the formation of a landslide dam. The objective is to identify the possible locations of landslide dams by the geomorphic features of landslide-prone slopes. The selected nine geomorphic features include landslide area, slope, aspect, length, width, elevation change, runout distance, average landslide elevation, and river width. Our four geomorphic indexes include stream power, form factor, topographic wetness, and elevation–relief ratio. The features of the 28 river-damming landslides and of the 59 non-damming landslides are used for multivariate statistical analysis by Fisher discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis. The principal component analysis screened out eleven major geomorphic features for landslide area, slope, aspect, elevation change, length, width, runout distance, average elevation, form factor, river width, stream power, and topography wetness. Results show that the correctness by Fisher discriminant analysis was 68.0 % and was 70.8 % by logistic regression analysis. This study suggests that using logistic regression analysis as the assessment model for identifying the potential location of a landslide dam is beneficial. Landslide threshold equations applying the geomorphic features of slope angle, angle of landslide elevation change, and river width (H L/W R) to identify the potential formation of natural dams are proposed for analysis. Disaster prevention and mitigation measures are enhanced when the locations of potential landslide dams are identified; further, in order to benefit such measures, dam volume estimates responsible for breaches are key. 相似文献
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As global warming accelerates, abnormal weather events are occurring more frequently. In the twenty-first century in particular, hydrological disruption has increased as water flows have changed globally, causing the strength and frequency of hydrological disasters to increase. The damage caused by such disasters in urban areas can be extreme, and the creation of landslide susceptibility maps to predict and analyze the extent of future damage is an urgent necessity. Therefore, in this study, probabilistic and data mining approaches were utilized to identify landslide-susceptible areas using aerial photographs and geographic information systems. Areas where landslides have occurred were located through interpretation of aerial photographs and field survey data. In addition, topographic maps generated from aerial photographs were used to determine the values of topographic factors. A frequency ratio (FR) model was utilized to examine the influences of topographic, soil and vegetation factors on the occurrence of landslides. A total of 23 variables that affect landslide frequency were selected through FR analysis, and a spatial database was constructed. Finally, a boosted tree model was applied to determine the correlations between various factors and landslide occurrence. Correlations among related input variables were calculated as predictor importance values, and sensitivity analysis was performed to quantitatively analyze the impact of each variable. The boosted tree model showed validation accuracies of 77.68 and 78.70% for the classification and regression algorithms using receiver operating characteristic curve, respectively. Reliable accuracy can provide a scientific basis to urban municipalities for policy recommendations in the management of urban landslides. 相似文献
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中尼交通廊道作为中国近年来建设的重点区域,地质灾害频发,尤其是滑坡灾害层出不穷。文章基于对G216国道沿线地质灾害的实地调查以及遥感解译结果,以最大熵模型为方法,利用169个灾害点数据和8个评价因子图层预测了研究区滑坡灾害的易发性分布。根据占比划分五级风险区。结果表明,滑坡易发概率以G216为中心向外辐射逐渐降低。同时采用刀切法检验评价因子对预测结果的贡献度,确定了滑坡主导因素及其阈值。最后通过ROC曲线验证了模型的可靠性。为中尼边境公路区域建设提供一种地质灾害预测分析模型,也为青藏地区公路边坡防灾减灾提供有效支撑。 相似文献
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Mapping of micro topography using airborne laser scanning 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Intense rainfall conditions and seismic activity commonly trigger fluidised landslides which are characterized by rapid movement and long run-out. They are potentially a very dangerous form of landslide phenomena and may result in extensive damage due to their sudden movement. Until now, photogrammetry has been used to produce maps and investigate such landslides in areas where these disasters occur. Recently, however, airborne laser scanning technology has become a promising technique for making topographical maps and investigating the micro topographic details of these landslide disasters, particularly on slopes around urban areas where the potential risk is high. In this study, airborne laser scanning was carried out in the Tama Hills, near Tokyo, Japan, which is extensively affected by this type of landsliding. The effectiveness of this technique was tested and compared with a laser contour map and aerial photograph interpretations. 相似文献
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分形分维理论在地质灾害发育及空间分布规律中的应用——以长安区滑坡、崩塌地质灾害为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
长安区区内地层岩性、地质构造多样,加之人类经济工程活动、降雨、地震等诱发影响,秦岭北坡及黄土台塬边缘滑坡崩塌地质灾害发育,是陕西省地质灾害较严重的县(区)之一。本文以长安区为研究区域,在对长安区自然地理及区域地质环境条件等资料充分收集的基础上,结合长安区滑坡崩塌灾害点的实际调查资料,详细分析了长安区的滑坡崩塌灾害发育特征及空间分布规律,并采用网络覆盖法,对长安区滑坡崩塌地质灾害的空间分布进行了分形分维计算。求得地质灾害的空间分布分维值为0.876 6,反应出长安区滑坡崩塌地质灾害空间分布特性的复杂性。研究结果表明,分形分维理论能合理评价地质灾害空间分布特征,对类似地区的地质灾害空间分布特征分析具有借鉴意义。 相似文献
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在前人有关地质灾害的研究中,滑坡地质灾害以群体式出现的专业术语有"滑坡群"和"滑坡带"两种,但对其内涵的认识存在模糊性和局限性,缺乏层次性,多数情况下其只是对多个滑坡聚集的简称,没有体现出对地质灾害研究的指导意义。本文修正了"滑坡群"的概念,丰富了"滑坡群"的内涵,将"滑坡群"与相同的局部构造、活动构造相联系,使"滑坡群"内部的个体滑坡、相同新构造活动区域"滑坡群"之间的对比成为可能,实现了基础地质研究与灾害地质研究的有机结合。在此指导下提出了"滑坡群"评价方法,包括局部构造样式以及形成机理、局部构造与地质灾害空间演化规律、"滑坡群"内部个体滑坡对比,并建立了"滑坡群"时空演化模式,为预测滑坡破坏过程提供依据。 相似文献
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Evaluating the performance of a physically based model for landslide prediction was conducted in this study. The model was developed based on the basis of the infinite slope instability analysis and TOPMODEL for saturated water level estimation, which enabled to predict the location and time of occurrence of shallow landslides. Field data from 2008 to 2013 in two areas vulnerable to landslide in Taiwan were collected to test the applicability of the model for landslide prediction. Three indexes including the probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), and threat score (TS) were adopted to assess the advantages and disadvantages of the model. The results indicated that the POD for the landslide prediction by using the proposed model was 1.00, the FAR was lower than 0.25, and the overall TS value was higher than 0.75. It is promising to apply the proposed model for landslide early warnings to reduce the loss of life and property. 相似文献