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1.
Random finite element method (RFEM) provides a rigorous tool to incorporate spatial variability of soil properties into reliability analysis and risk assessment of slope stability. However, it suffers from a common criticism of requiring extensive computational efforts and a lack of efficiency, particularly at small probability levels (e.g., slope failure probability P f ?<?0.001). To address this problem, this study integrates RFEM with an advanced Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method called “Subset Simulation (SS)” to develop an efficient RFEM (i.e., SS-based RFEM) for reliability analysis and risk assessment of soil slopes. The proposed SS-based RFEM expresses the overall risk of slope failure as a weighed aggregation of slope failure risk at different probability levels and quantifies the relative contributions of slope failure risk at different probability levels to the overall risk of slope failure. Equations are derived for integrating SS with RFEM to evaluate the probability (P f ) and risk (R) of slope failure. These equations are illustrated using a soil slope example. It is shown that the P f and R are evaluated properly using the proposed approach. Compared with the original RFEM with direct MCS, the SS-based RFEM improves, significantly, the computational efficiency of evaluating P f and R. This enhances the applications of RFEM in the reliability analysis and risk assessment of slope stability. With the aid of improved computational efficiency, a sensitivity study is also performed to explore effects of vertical spatial variability of soil properties on R. It is found that the vertical spatial variability affects the slope failure risk significantly.  相似文献   

2.
This paper investigates, using the random field theory and Monte Carlo simulation, the effects of random field discretization on failure probability, p f, and failure mechanism of cohesive soil slope stability. The spatial sizes of the discretized elements in random field Δx, Δy in horizontal and vertical directions, respectively, are assigned a series of combinational values in order to model the discretization accuracy. The p f of deterministic critical slip surface (DCSS) and that of the slope system both are analyzed. The numerical simulation results have demonstrated that both the ratios of Δy/λ y (λ y  = scale of fluctuation in vertical direction) and Δx/λ x (λ x  = scale of fluctuation in horizontal direction) contribute in a similar manner to the accuracy of p f of DCSS. The effect of random field discretization on the p f can be negligible if both the ratios of Δx/λ x and Δy/λ y are no greater than 0.1. The normalized discrepancy tends to increase at a linear rate with Δy/λ y when Δx/λ x is larger than 0.1, and vice versa for p f of DCSS. The random field discretization tends to have more considerable influence on the p f of DCSS than on that of the slope system. The variation of p f versus λ x and λ y may exhibit opposite trends for the cases where the limit state functions of slope failure are defined on DCSS and on the slope system as well. Finally, the p f of slope system converges in a more rapid manner to that of DCSS than the failure mechanism does to DCSS as the spatial variability of soil property grows from significant to negligible.  相似文献   

3.
提出了基于子集模拟的边坡风险评估的高效随机有限元法（RFEM）,推导了基于子集模拟的边坡失效概率和失效风险的计算公式,并给出了基于高效RFEM的边坡可靠度分析和风险评估流程图。采用一个边坡算例验证了所提方法的有效性。结果表明,基于子集模拟的高效RFEM可以视为是对基于蒙特卡洛模拟的传统RFEM的改进,显著地提高了失效概率和失效风险的计算效率以及失效样本的产生能力,非常适用于分析小失效概率的可靠度问题,极大地增强了RFEM在边坡可靠度分析和风险评估中的实用性。高效RFEM将边坡的整体失效风险分解为对应不同概率水平的边坡失效风险,并量化了它们对整体风险的相对贡献度。在该方法中,边坡可靠度分析和风险评估与确定性边坡有限元分析互不耦合,极大地简化了它们的计算过程。此外,土体不排水抗剪强度的竖向空间变异性对边坡失效风险具有显著的影响。  相似文献   

4.
Severe land subsidence due to groundwater extraction may occur in multiaquifer systems where highly compressible aquitards are present. The highly compressible nature of the aquitards leads to nonlinear consolidation where the groundwater flow parameters are stress-dependent. The case is further complicated by the heterogeneity of the hydrogeologic and geotechnical properties of the aquitards. The effect of realistic vertical heterogeneity of hydrogeologic and geotechnical parameters on the consolidation of highly compressible aquitards is investigated by means of one-dimensional Monte Carlo numerical simulations where the lower boundary represents the effect of an instant drop in hydraulic head due to groundwater pumping. Two thousand realizations are generated for each of the following parameters: hydraulic conductivity (K), compression index (C c), void ratio (e) and m (an empirical parameter relating hydraulic conductivity and void ratio). The correlation structure, the mean and the variance for each parameter were obtained from a literature review about field studies in the lacustrine sediments of Mexico City. The results indicate that among the parameters considered, random K has the largest effect on the ensemble average behavior of the system when compared to a nonlinear consolidation model with deterministic initial parameters. The deterministic solution underestimates the ensemble average of total settlement when initial K is random. In addition, random K leads to the largest variance (and therefore largest uncertainty) of total settlement, groundwater flux and time to reach steady-state conditions.  相似文献   

5.
It is essential to determine the shear strength parameters c and φ on the sliding surface for stability evaluation and engineering design of a landslide. In this study, a new parameter back analysis method is proposed by combining the 2D/3D upper bound method of limit analysis and reliability theory to accurately determine the shear strength parameters for a 3D slope with a single failure surface. The proposed reliability back analysis method overcomes the shortcomings of the traditional deterministic analysis method of slope stability that cannot take into account the randomness and uncertainty of geotechnical parameters. Based on the reliability theory, two methods were studied: first-order reliability method (implemented by spreadsheet and Matlab, called spreadsheet method and constrained optimization method, respectively, in this paper) and Monte Carlo simulation. The optimized values of c and φ were obtained by establishing only one balance equation with the consideration of the pore water pressure or other complex conditions, which can solve the problem of the back analysis of strength parameters for a single 3D sliding surface condition. The correlation research showed that the negative correlation between c and φ greatly affected the back analysis results, and the reliability index values were conservative without considering such a negative correlation. A case study for the back analysis of shear strength parameters is conducted based on a practical landslide model with a broken line slip surface slope in Zhuquedong village, Luxi town, Xiangxi County, Hunan Province, China, and a suggestion for the selection of landslide cross section is presented. The results show that the back analysis results determined by the reliability theory coincide well with the survey and experimental results. The proposed method is found to be more accurate and effective in determining the values of shear parameters than that of the traditional deterministic inversion method.  相似文献   

6.
Rock slope instabilities are a major hazard for human activities often causing economic losses, property damages and maintenance costs, as well as injuries or fatalities. For slope stability analysis of open pit mines, series of studies must be carried out in order to identify the criteria which should take into consideration. In this research geotechnical parameters; Geological Strength Index (GSI), Rock Quality Designation (RQD), Cohesion (C), angle of internal friction (φ), uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) and Rock mass deformation modulus (Em) which are obtained from data measured within geotechnical boreholes and pore pressure (U) are considered as the criteria to evaluate stability of pit No.1 of the Gole Gohar iron mine, located in Kerman province, south east of Iran. Since human judgments and preferences are often vague and complex and decision makers cannot estimate their preferences with an exact scale, we can only give linguistic assessments instead of exact ones. So fuzzy set theory introduced into Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Fuzzy AHP (FAHP) is put forward to solve such uncertain problems. In this paper, FAHP method is used to determine the weights of the criteria by decision makers and then classification of the stability of blocks are determined by TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method by the shortest distance to positive ideal solution (PIS) and the longest distance to negative ideal solution (NIS).  相似文献   

7.
The distribution of permafrost-related slope failures along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway from Wuddaoliang to Fenghuoshan correlates with ice content, slope gradient, and ground temperature. Slope failures are of two types. (1) Retrogressive thaw slumps result from icy permafrost being exposed by either man-induced excavation or fluvial-thermal erosion and undercutting of basal slopes. (2) Active-layer-detachment failures are caused by thaw of icy permafrost at the active layer-permafrost interface. After initial failure, active-layer-detachment failures can lead to retrogressive thaw-slumping and localized surficial landslide. Common trigger mechanisms for failure include high summer air temperatures and heavy summer precipitation. A third possible trigger mechanism for slope failure is earthquake occurrence. A geotechnical slope stability analysis was undertaken for an active-layer-detachment failure that had progressed into a retrogressive thaw slump. A safety factor (F s ) of 1.24 for the natural slope was determined using in situ tested strength parameters. However, the slope would lose stability when either the groundwater level over the permafrost table exceeded 1.42 m or seismic acceleration reached, or exceeded, 0.03?g.  相似文献   

8.
The reliability of heterogeneous slopes can be evaluated using a wide range of available probabilistic methods. One of these methods is the random finite element method (RFEM), which combines random field theory with the non‐linear elasto‐plastic finite element slope stability analysis method. The RFEM computes the probability of failure of a slope using the Monte Carlo simulation process. The major drawback of this approach is the intensive computational time required, mainly due to the finite element analysis and the Monte Carlo simulation process. Therefore, a simplified model or solution, which can bypass the computationally intensive and time‐consuming numerical analyses, is desirable. The present study investigates the feasibility of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to develop such a simplified model. ANNs are well known for their strong capability in mapping the input and output relationship of complex non‐linear systems. The RFEM is used to generate possible solutions and to establish a large database that is used to develop and verify the ANN model. In this paper, multi‐layer perceptrons, which are trained with the back‐propagation algorithm, are used. The results of various performance measures indicate that the developed ANN model has a high degree of accuracy in predicting the reliability of heterogeneous slopes. The developed ANN model is then transformed into relatively simple formulae for direct application in practice. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
This paper presents the numerical simulation of pile installation and the subsequent increase in the pile capacity over time (or setup) after installation that was performed using the finite element software Abaqus. In the first part, pile installation and the following load tests were simulated numerically using the volumetric cavity expansion concept. The anisotropic modified Cam-Clay and Dracker–Prager models were adopted in the FE model to describe the behavior of the clayey and sandy soils, respectively. The proposed FE model proposed was successfully validated through simulating two full-scale instrumented driven pile case studies. In the second part, over 100 different actual properties of individual soil layers distracted from literature were used in the finite element analysis to conduct parametric study and to evaluate the effect of different soil properties on the pile setup behavior. The setup factor A was targeted here to describe the pile setup as a function of time after the end of driving. The selected soil properties in this study to evaluate the setup factor A include: soil plasticity index (PI), undrained shear strength (S u ), vertical coefficient of consolidation (C v ), sensitivity ratio (S r ), and over-consolidation ratio (OCR). The predicted setup factor showed direct proportion with the PI and S r and inverse relation with S u , C v and OCR. These soil properties were selected as independent variables, and nonlinear multivariable regression analysis was performed using Gauss–Newton algorithm to develop appropriate regression models for A. Best models were selected among all based on level of errors of prediction, which were validated with additional nineteen different site information available in the literature. The results indicated that the developed model is able to predict the setup behavior for individual cohesive soil layers, especially for values of setup factor greater than 0.10, which is the most expectable case in nature.  相似文献   

10.
We produce factor of safety (FOS) and slope failure susceptibility index (SFSI) maps for a 4.4-km2 study area in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in order to explore the sensitivity of the geotechnical and geohydraulic parameterization on the model outcomes. Thereby, we consider parameter spaces instead of combinations of discrete values. SFSI is defined as the fraction of tested parameter combinations within a given space yielding FOS <1. We repeat our physically based calculations for various parameter spaces, employing the infinite slope stability model and the sliding surface model of the software r.slope.stability for testing the geotechnical parameters and the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model (TRIGRS) for testing the geohydraulic parameters. Whilst the results vary considerably in terms of their conservativeness, the ability to reproduce the spatial patterns of the observed landslide release areas is relatively insensitive to the variation of the parameterization as long as there is sufficient pattern in the results. We conclude that landslide susceptibility maps yielded by catchment-scale physically based models should not be interpreted in absolute terms and suggest that efforts to develop better strategies for dealing with the uncertainties in the spatial variation of the key parameters should be given priority in future slope stability modelling efforts.  相似文献   

11.
This study analyzed 267 landslide landforms (LLs) in the Kumamoto area of Japan from the database of about 0.4 million LLs for the whole of Japan identified from aerial photos by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience of Japan (NIED). Each LL in the inventory is composed of a scarp and a moving mass. Since landslides are prone to reactivation, it is important to evaluate the sliding-recurrence susceptibility of LLs. One possible approach to evaluate the susceptibility of LLs is slope stability analysis. A previous study found a good correlation (R 2 = 0.99) between the safety factor (F s ) and slope angle (α) of F s  = 17.3α ?0.843. We applied the equation to the analysis of F s for 267 LLs in the area affected by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (M j  = 7.3). The F s was calculated for the following three cases of failure: scarps only, moving mass only, and scarps and moving mass together. Verification with the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake event shows that the most appropriate method for the evaluation of LLs is to consider the failure of scarps and moving mass together. In addition, by analyzing the relationship between the factors of slope of entire landslide and slope of scarp for LLs and comparing the results with the Aso-ohashi landslide, the largest landslide caused by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, we also found that morphometric analysis of LLs is useful for forecasting the travel distance of future landslides.  相似文献   

12.
Impact of river network type on the time of concentration   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Time of concentration (T c) is one of the frequently used parameters to characterize the response of a drainage basin to a rainfall event. Conceptually, it is the time runoff travels from the hydraulically most distant location in a basin to its outlet. T c was found to vary depending on river basin characteristics such as slope, soil infiltration, and flow path. In this study, we investigate if the drainage network type information can be used as an input to hydrological models, by estimating the time of concentration separately for different network types. Sixty-eight basins which have areas ranging from 24 to 965 km2 in arid and non-arid regions of the USA are compared and the effect of climate is also analyzed. It is found that the slope of the linear relationship between T c and the maximum hydraulic length of flow path shows different correlation coefficients ranging from 0.80 to 0.98 for different network types. It is observed that the slope of the regression line between T c and the maximum hydraulic length of flow path is the lowest for dendritic networks (slope of 0.26), while pinnate networks have the steepest slope of the regression line (slope of 0.59). This indicates that the drainage network type has a direct impact on the hydrological behavior of the basin and can represent a direct input in hydrological modeling.  相似文献   

13.
The undrained shear strength (s u) of cohesive soils is a crucial parameter for many geotechnical engineering applications. Due to the complexities and uncertainties associated with laboratory and in situ tests, it is a challenging task to obtain the undrained shear strength in a reliable and economical manner. In this study, a probabilistic model for the s u of moderately overconsolidated clays is developed using the Bayesian model class selection approach. The model is based on a comprehensive geotechnical database compiled for this study with field measurements of field vane strength (s u), plastic limit (PL), natural water content (W n), liquid limit (LL), vertical effective overburden stress (\(\sigma_{\nu }^{\prime }\)), preconsolidation pressure (\(\sigma_{\text{p}}^{\prime }\)) and overconsolidated ratio (OCR). Comparison study shows that the proposed model is superior to some well-known empirical relationships for OC clays. The proposed probabilistic model not only provides reliable and economical estimation of s u but also facilitates reliability-based analysis and design for performance-based engineering applications.  相似文献   

14.
To investigate inhomogeneous and porous structures in nature, the concept of fractal dimension was established. This paper briefly introduces the definition and measurement methods of fractal dimension. Three different methods including mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP), nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), and nitrogen adsorption (BET) were applied to determine the fractal dimensions of the pore space of eight carbonate rock samples taken from West Tushka area, Egypt. In the case of fractal behavior, the capillary pressure P c and cumulative fraction V c resulting from MICP are linearly related with a slope of D-3 in a double logarithmic plot with D being the value of fractal dimension. For NMR, the cumulative intensity fraction V c and relaxation time T 2 show a linear relation with a slope of 3-D in a double logarithmic plot. Fractal dimension can also be determined by the specific surface area S por derived from nitrogen adsorption measurements and the effective hydraulic radius. The fractal dimension D shows a linear relation with the logarithm of S por . The fractal dimension is also used in models of permeability prediction. To consider a more comprehensive data set, another 34 carbonate samples taken from the same study area were integrated in the discussion on BET method and permeability prediction. Most of the 42 rock samples show a good agreement between measured permeability and predicted permeability if the mean surface fractal dimension for each facies is used.  相似文献   

15.
Cyclic triaxial test by means of the geotechnical digital system is conducted for the soil near the Guoquan Road Station of Metro Line 10 in Shanghai to analyze the strain characteristics and the variation law of saturated silty soil under subway loading. Orthogonal design method is used to arrange the experiment, considering the following factors: frequency ratio f R, cyclic stress ratio σ R, vibration time ratio N R, and the interaction function among them. Results show that the cyclic stress ratio σ R, the frequency ratio f R, the vibration time ratio N R, and the interaction between the cyclic stress ratio σ R and the vibration time ratio N R have a significant effect on the axial strain of the subway tunnel. The effect of the interaction between the cyclic stress ratio σ R and the vibration time ratio N R is also significant. From the analysis of variance and regression theory, the nonlinear regression equation of the cumulative plastic strain of silty soil under subway loading is established. Residual analysis proves that the equation is ideal and credible. The results have important value for the design of subway tunnels.  相似文献   

16.
Data quality control in geochemistry constitutes a fundamental problem that is still to be solved from the application of statistics and computation. We used refined Monte Carlo simulations of 10,000 replications and 190 independent experiments for sample sizes of 5 to 100. Statistical contaminations of 1 to 4 observations were used to compare 9 statistical parameters (4 central tendency—mean, median, trimean, and Gastwirth mean, and 5 dispersion estimates—standard deviation, median absolute deviation, S n , Q n , and \( {\widehat{\sigma}}_n \)). The presence of discordant observations in the data arrays rendered the outlier-based and robust parameters to disagree with each other. However, when the mean and standard deviation (outlier-based parameters) were estimated from censored data arrays obtained after the identification and separation of outlying observations, they generally provided a better estimate of the population than the robust estimates obtained from the original data arrays. This inference is contrary to the general belief, and therefore, reasons for the better performance of the outlier-based methods as compared to the robust methods are suggested. However, when all parameters were estimated from censored arrays and appropriate precise and accurate correction factors put forth in this work were applied, all of them became fully consistent, i.e., the mean agreed with the median, trimean and Gastwirth mean, and the standard deviation with the median absolute deviation, S n , Q n , and \( {\widehat{\sigma}}_n \). An example of inter-laboratory chemical data for a Hawaiian reference material BHVO-1 included sample sizes from 5 to 100, which showed that small samples of up to 20 provide inconsistent estimates, whereas larger samples of 20–100, especially >40, were more appropriate for estimating statistical parameters through robust or outlier-based methods. Although all statistical estimators provided consistent results, our simulation study shows that it is better to use the censored sample mean and population standard deviation as the best estimates.  相似文献   

17.
Based on a consistent set of empirical interatomic potentials, static structure energy calculations of various Al/Si configurations in the supercell of Mg-cordierite and Monte Carlo simulations the phase transition between the orthorhombic and hexagonal modifications of cordierite (Crd) is predicted at 1623 K. The temperature dependences of the enthalpy, entropy, and free energy of the Al/Si disorder were calculated using the method of thermodynamic integration. The simulations suggest that the commonly observed crystallization of cordierite in the disordered hexagonal form could be related to a tendency of Al to occupy T1 site, which is driven by local charge balance. The increase in the Al fraction in the T1 site over the ratio of 2/3(T1): 1/3(T2), that characterizes the ordered state, precludes formation of the domains of the orthorhombic phase. This intrinsic tendency to the crystallization of the metastable hexagonal phase could have significantly postponed the formation of the association of orthorhombic cordierite and orthopyroxene over the association of quartz and garnet in metapelites subjected to granulite facies metamorphism. The textures of local metasomatic replacement (the formation of Crd + Opx Or Spr + Crd symplectites between the grains of garnet and quartz) indicate the thermodynamic instability of the association of Qtz + Grt at the moment of the metasomatic reaction. This instability could have been caused by the difficulty of equilibrium nucleation of orthorhombic cordierite.  相似文献   

18.
The estimated undrained shear strength (su) is often not a unique value because it can be evaluated by various test types and/or procedures, such as different failure modes, shear strain rates, and boundary conditions. This study explores (1) the relationship between reference undrained shear strength and in situ shear wave velocity in terms of the effective overburden stress, and (2) the independent relationships to evaluate the undrained shear strength with special consideration of different directional and polarization modes (VH, HV, HH shear waves), which has not been reported. This evaluation is done via a worldwide database compiled from 43 well-documented geotechnical test sites associated with soft ground. Finally, new correlation models are proposed to estimate the undrained shear strength based on the in situ shear wave velocity as well as the plasticity index or the overconsolidation ratio. The application of the shear wave velocity–undrained shear strength relation is illustrated through two independent case studies. The proposed relationships are expected to contribute to reasonable estimates of undrained shear strength as well as offer practical guidance on even extrapolation beyond the data that is available to geotechnical engineers.  相似文献   

19.
For feasibility studies and preliminary design estimates, field measurements of shear wave velocity, V s, may not be economically adequate and empirical correlations between V s and more available penetration measurements such as cone penetration test, CPT, data turn out to be potentially valuable at least for initial evaluation of the small-strain stiffness of soils. These types of correlations between geophysical (Vs) and geotechnical (N-SPT, q c-CPT) measurements are also of utmost importance where a great precision in the calculation of the deposit response is required such as in liquefaction evaluation or earthquake ground response analyses. In this study, the stress-normalized shear wave velocity V s1 (in m/s) is defined as statistical functions of the normalized dimensionless resistance, Q tn-CPT, and the mean effective diameter, D 50 (in mm), using a data set of different uncemented soils of Holocene age accumulated at various sites in North America, Europe, and Asia. The V s1–Q tn data exhibit different trends with respect to grain sizes. For soils with mean grain size (D 50) < 0.2 mm, the V s1/Q tn 0.25 ratio undergoes a significant reduction with the increase in D 50 of the soil. This trend is completely reversed with further increase in D 50 (D 50 > 0.2 mm). These results corroborate earlier results that stressed the use of different CPT-based correlations with different soil types, and those emphasized the need to impose particle-size limits on the validity of the majority of available correlations.  相似文献   

20.
Root systems of trees reinforce the underlying soil in hillslope environments and therefore potentially increase slope stability. So far, the influence of root systems is disregarded in Geographic Information System (GIS) models that calculate slope stability along distinct failure plane. In this study, we analyse the impact of different root system compositions and densities on slope stability conditions computed by a GIS-based slip surface model. We apply the 2.5D slip surface model r.slope.stability to 23 root system scenarios imposed on pyramidoid-shaped elements of a generic landscape. Shallow, taproot and mixed root systems are approximated by paraboloids and different stand and patch densities are considered. The slope failure probability (Pf) is derived for each raster cell of the generic landscape, considering the reinforcement through root cohesion. Average and standard deviation of Pf are analysed for each scenario. As expected, the r.slope.stability yields the highest values of Pf for the scenario without roots. In contrast, homogeneous stands with taproot or mixed root systems yield the lowest values of Pf. Pf generally decreases with increasing stand density, whereby stand density appears to exert a more pronounced influence on Pf than patch density. For patchy stands, Pf increases with a decreasing size of the tested slip surfaces. The patterns yielded by the computational experiments are largely in line with the results of previous studies. This approach provides an innovative and simple strategy to approximate the additional cohesion supplied by root systems and thereby considers various compositions of forest stands in 2.5D slip surface models. Our findings will be useful for developing strategies towards appropriately parameterising root reinforcement in real-world slope stability modelling campaigns.  相似文献   

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