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1.
Lahars are among the most hazardous mass flow processes on earth and have caused up to 23 000 casualties in single events in the recent past. The Cotopaxi volcano, 60 km southeast of Quito, has a well-documented history of massively destructive lahars and is a hotspot for future lahars due to (i) its ~10 km2 glacier cap, (ii) its 117–147-year return period of (Sub)-Plinian eruptions, and (iii) the densely populated potential inundation zones (300 000 inhabitants). Previous mechanical lahar models often do not (i) capture the steep initial lahar trajectory, (ii) reproduce multiple flow paths including bifurcation and confluence, and (iii) generate appropriate key parameters like flow speed and pressure at the base as a measure of erosion capacity. Here, we back-calculate the well-documented 1877 lahar using the RAMMS debris flow model with an implemented entrainment algorithm, covering the entire lahar path from the volcano edifice to an extent of ~70 km from the source. To evaluate the sensitivity and to constrain the model input range, we systematically explore input parameter values, especially the Voellmy–Salm friction coefficients μ and ξ. Objective selection of the most likely parameter combinations enables a realistic and robust lahar hazard representation. Detailed historic records for flow height, flow velocity, peak discharge, travel time and inundation limits match best with a very low Coulomb-type friction μ (0.0025–0.005) and a high turbulent friction ξ (1000–1400 m/s2). Finally, we apply the calibrated model to future eruption scenarios (Volcanic Explosivity Index = 2–3, 3–4, >4) at Cotopaxi and accordingly scaled lahars. For the first time, we anticipate a potential volume growth of 50–400% due to lahar erosivity on steep volcano flanks. Here we develop a generic Voellmy–Salm approach across different scales of high-magnitude lahars and show how it can be used to anticipate future syneruptive lahars.  相似文献   

2.
Mt. Ruapehu, in the central North Island of New Zealand, is one of the most lahar-prone volcanoes in the world. Since historic observations began in 1861 AD, more than 50 individual lahars have been recorded in the Whangaehu valley alone, the natural outlet to the summit Crater Lake. These lahars have been triggered by a variety of mechanisms, including explosive eruptions that displaced Crater Lake water over the outlet or ejected it onto the snow-clad summit area of the volcano; rain-remobilisation of tephra deposits on steep slopes; displacement over the outlet as a result of syn-eruptive changes in lake bathymetry; and lake break-outs from Crater Lake following impoundment of excess water behind temporary barriers of tephra and/or ice emplaced over the outlet. However, only 9 lahar deposits can be distinguished in the upper Whangaehu valley on sedimentological, stratigraphic, geomorphic and petrological grounds, and these are skewed towards either the largest or the most recent flows. In some cases magnitude can be reconstructed from deposit geometry, with the largest lahars producing the highest level terraces, the coarsest deposits, and crossing drainage divides into normally inactive channels. This under-representation of historic events reflects the low preservation potential of unconsolidated deposits in a steep alpine environment, and the overprinting and recycling effect of large magnitude lahars that rework material down to bedrock and effectively reset the stratigraphic record. Development of magnitude-frequency relationships for Ruapehu lahars therefore requires the identification of lahar deposits in proximal, medial and distal settings in order to ensure that the full range of events is represented.  相似文献   

3.
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4.
A general model for Mt. Ruapehu lahars   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  
A mathematical model of the motion of lahars is presented. Lahar flows and travel speeds are calculated using a kinematic wave model which equates gravitational accelerations to frictional losses. A chezyor Manning-type law of friction is assumed, in which lahar flow rate is a simple power function of lahar depth, multiplied by another simple power of the chanel slope. Use of the model requires knowledge of essentially only one parameter which appears to be relatively insensitive for flows down a given channel. Variable channel slope effects are removed by a longitudinal scaling which applies to all flows down a given channel. For lahars generated by a single explosive event it is unnecessary to perform numerical calculations to predict lahar flow and travel time, but for lahnars produced by multiple sources in which different lahar flows are interacting, numerical calculations appear necessary. The model is applied to all recorded lahar flows from Mt. Ruapehu, and satisfactorily described all lahar flows generated by a single explosive mechanism. Such flows depend essentially only on total lahar volume. The 1968 Mt. Ruapehu lahar, generated by a series of smaller eruptive mechanisms, was modelled as the interaction of seven point sources of fluid originating from positions mathematically extrapolated up the mountain. Good agreement was obtained between the predicted times of formation of these 1968 lahars, and the times of greatest seismic amplitude.  相似文献   

5.
Lahars (volcanic debris flows) have been responsible for 40% of all volcanic fatalities over the past century. Mount Semeru (East Java, Indonesia) is a persistently active composite volcano that threatens approximately one million people with its lahars and pyroclastic flows. Despite their regularity, the behaviour and the propagation of these rain‐triggered lahars are poorly understood. In situ samples were taken from lahars in motion at two sites in the Curah Lengkong River, on the southeast flank of Semeru, providing estimates of the particle concentration, grain size spectrum, grain density and composition. This enables us to identify flow sediment from three categories of lahars: (a) hyperconcentrated flow, (b) non‐cohesive, clast‐ and matrix‐supported debris flow, and (c) muddy flood. To understand hyperconcentrated flow sediment transport processes, it is more appropriate to sample the active flows than the post‐event lahar deposits because in situ sampling retains the full spectrum of the grain‐size distribution. Rheometrical tests on materials sampled from moving hyperconcentrated flows were carried out using a laboratory vane rheometer. Despite technical difficulties, results obtained on the <63, <180, and <400 µm fractions of the sampled sediment, suggest a purely frictional behaviour. Importantly, and contrary to previous experiments conducted with monodisperse suspensions, our results do not show any transition towards a viscous behaviour for high shear rates. These data provide important constraints for future physical and numerical modelling of lahar flows. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Titan2D is a depth-averaged, thin-layer computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code, suitable for simulating a variety of geophysical mass flows. Titan2D output data include flow thickness and flow momentum at each time step for all cells traversed by the flow during the simulation. From this information the flow limit, run-out path, flow velocity, deposit thickness, and travel time can be calculated. Results can be visualized in the open-source GRASS GIS software or with the built-in Titan2D viewer. A new two-phase Titan2D version allows simulation of flows containing various mixtures of water and solids. The purpose of this study is to compare simulations by the two-phase flow version of Titan2D with an actual event. The chosen natural flow is a small ash-rich lahar (volume 50,000 m3–70,000 m3) that occurred on 12 February 2005 in the Vazcún Valley, located on the north-east flank of Volcán Tungurahua, Ecuador. Lahars and pyroclastic flows along this valley could potentially threaten the 20,000 inhabitants living in and near the city of Baños. A variety of data sources exist for this lahar, including: post-event meter-scale topography, and photographic, video, seismic and acoustic flow monitoring (AFM) records from during the event. These data permit detailed comparisons between the dynamics of the actual lahar and those of the Titan2D simulated flow. In particular, detailed comparisons are made between run-up heights, flow velocity, inundation area, and flow thickness. Simulations utilize a variety of data derived from field observations such as lahar volume, solid to pore-fluid ratio and pre-event topography. Titan2D is important in modeling lahars because it allows assessment of the impact of the flows on buildings and infrastructure lifelines located near drainages that descend from volcanoes.  相似文献   

7.
Ruapehu is a very active andesitic composite volcano which has erupted five times in the past 10 years. Historical events have included phreatomagmatic eruptions through a hot crater lake and two dome-building episodes. Ski-field facilities, road and rail bridges, alpine huts and portions of a major hydroelectrical power scheme have been damaged or destroyed by these eruptions. Destruction of a rail bridge by a lahar in 1953 caused the loss of 151 lives. Other potential hazards, with Holocene analogues, include Strombolian and sub-Plinian explosive eruptions, lava extrusion from summit or flank vents and collapse of portions of the volcano. The greatest hazards would result from renewed phreatomagmatic activity in Crater Lake or collapse of its weak southeastern wall. Three types of hazard zones can be defined for the phreatomagmatic events: inner zones of extreme risk from ballistic blocks and surges, outer zones of disruption to services from fall deposits and zones of risk from lahars, which consist of tongues down major river valleys. Ruapehu is prone to destructive lahars because of the presence of 107 m3 of hot acid water in Crater Lake and because of the surrounding summit glaciers and ice fields. The greatest risks at Ruapehu are to thousands of skiers on the ski field which crosses a northern lahar path. Three early warning schemes have been established to deal with the lahar problems. Collapse of the southeastern confining wall would release much of the lake into an eastern lahar path causing widespread damage. This is a long-term risk which could only be mitigated by drainage of the lake.  相似文献   

8.
We present multi-parameter geophysical measurements of rainfall-induced lahars at Semeru Volcano, East Java, using two observation sites 510 m apart, 11.5 km from the summit. Our study site in the Curah Lengkong channel is composed of a 30-m wide box-valley, with a base of gravel and lava bedrock, representing an ideal geometry for high density measurements of active lahars. Instrumentation included pore-pressure sensors (stage), a broad-band seismograph (arrival times, vibrational energy, and turbulence), video footage, and direct bucket sampling. A total of 8 rainfall-induced lahars were recorded, with durations of 1–3 h, heights 0.5–2 m, and peak velocities 3–6 m/s. Flow types ranged from dilute to dense hyperconcentrated flows. These recorded flows were commonly composed of partly coalesced, discrete and unsteady gravity current packets, represented by multiple peaks within each lahar. These packets most likely originate from multiple lahar sources, and can be traced between instrument sites. Those with the highest concentrations and greatest wetted areas were often located mid-lahar at our measured reach, accelerating towards the flow front. As these lahars travel downstream, the individual packets thus coalesce and the flow develops a more organised structure. Observations of different degrees of coalescence between these discrete flow packets illustrate that a single mature debris flow may have formed from multiple dynamically independent lahars, each with different origins.  相似文献   

9.
The Whangaehu fan is the youngest sedimentary component on the eastern ring plain surrounding Ruapehu volcano. Fan history comprises constructional (830–200 years bp) and dissectional (<200 years bp) phases. The constructional phase includes four aggradational periods associated with both syneruptive and inter-eruptive behavior. All four aggradational periods began when deposition by large lahars changed flow conditions on the fan from channelized to unchannelized. Subsequent behavior was a function of the rate of sediment influx to the fan. The rate of sediment influx, in turn, was controlled by frequency and magnitude of volcanic eruptions, short-term climate change, and the amount of sediment stored on the volcano flanks. Fanwide aggradation occurred when rates of sediment influx and deposition on the fan were high enough to maintaìn unchannelized flow conditions on the fan surface. Maintenance of an undissected surface required sedimentation from frequent and large lahars that prevented major dissection between events. These conditions were best met during major eruptive episodes when high frequency and magnitude eruptions blanketed the volcano flanks with tephra and rates of lahar initiation were high. During major eruptive episodes, volcanism is the primary control on sedimentation. Climatic variations do not influence sediment accumulation. Local aggradation occurred when lahars were too small to maintain unchannelized flow across the entire fan. In this case, only the major channel system received much sediment following the deposition from the initial lahar. This localized aggradation occurred if (1) the sediment reservoir on the flank was large enough for floods to bulk into debris flows and (2) sedimentation events were frequent enough to maintain sediment supply to only some parts of the fan. These conditions were met during both minor eruptive and inter-eruptive episodes. In both cases, a large sediment reservoir remained on the volcano flanks from previous major eruptive intervals. Periods of increased storm activity produced floods that bulked to relatively small debris flows. When the sediment reservoir was depleted, the fan entered the present dissectional phase. Syneruptive and noneruptive lahars are mostly channelized and sediment bypasses the fan. Fan deposits are rapidly reworked. This is the present case at Ruapehu, even though the volcano is in a minor eruptive episode and the climate favors generation of intense storm floods.  相似文献   

10.
The eruptions of Mt Ruapehu in the North Island of New Zealand in 1995 and 1996 caused a tephra barrier to be formed across the outlet of Crater Lake. By 2005 seepage from the refilled lake into the barrier raised the possibility of an eventual collapse of the barrier, releasing a catastrophic lahar down the mountain.As part of an extensive monitoring programme of the tephra barrier, direct current (dc) resistivity surveys were carried out on a number of lines along and across it in order to test whether the extent of the seepage could be measured (and monitored) by geophysical means. Two dimensional inversion of measured apparent resistivity data showed that between the initial measurements, made in January 2005, and February 2006, there was a gradual decrease in resistivity above the old outlet from ~ 50–60 Ωm to ~ 30 Ωm. This gave the first indication that lake water was seeping into the barrier. Between October and December 2006 there was a rapid rise in lake level to only 2 m below the top of the barrier, and a further resistivity survey in January 2007 showed that there had been a further decrease in resistivity throughout the entire barrier with values dropping to < 10 Ωm. The extent of this low resistivity indicated that the barrier was now saturated. At this stage lake water was penetrating the barrier and starting to cause erosion on its downstream side. Catastrophic collapse occurred on 18 March 2007, accompanied by a lahar in the Whangaehu river valley.Subsequent forward 3D numerical modelling of the resistivity structure of the barrier has confirmed that the observed changes in measured resistivity were directly related to the progress of seepage of lake water into the barrier.  相似文献   

11.
In June/July 2000, a hydraulic stimulation experiment took place at the geothermal EGS site of Soultz-sous-Forêts (Alsace, France) in order to enhance the permeability of the fractured granitic massif at 5 km depth. As it is well known that fluid injections tend to induce microseismic events, a downhole and a surface seismological network have been installed to monitor the seismic activity during the stimulation test. 23400 m3 of fluid have been injected in the rock volume through the open-hole section (4400 m–5000 m) of the well GPK2 at increasing rates of 30 l.s−1, 40 l.s−1 and then 50 l.s−1. More than 7200 microseismic events in the magnitude range –0.9 to 2.6 have been precisely located through a simultaneous inversion of the seismic velocity structure and location parameters. The analysis of the behavior of the seismicity relative to the hydraulic parameters gives important information about the geothermal reservoir. It appears that the evolution of the seismicity strongly depends on the variations of the injection rate: An increase or a decrease leads to changes of the velocity structure, the number and magnitude of microseismic events. This involves different hydro-mechanical processes between the fluid flow and the fracture planes, which will control the final shape of the microseismic cloud. Moreover, the study of the variations of the b-value with time suggests that the stimulation experiment produces a large proportion of small earthquakes, but records of events of magnitude higher than 2 indicate that fluid injection could reactivate structures whose dimensions allow the generation of such earthquakes.  相似文献   

12.
Observations of thermohaline properties and currents were undertaken in the Curimataú River estuary (6°18′S), Rio Grande do Norte state (RN), Brazil, during consecutive neap–spring tidal cycles in the austral autumn rainy season. Highly asymmetric neap tide along channel velocities (−0.4 to 0.9 m s−1) and highly stratified conditions were generated by an increase of the buoyancy energy from the freshwater input (R iE≈5.6). During the spring-tidal cycle the river discharge decreased and the longitudinal velocity components were higher, less asymmetrical (−0.8 to 1.1 m s−1) and semidiurnal, associated with moderately stratified conditions (R iE≈0.1) due to the increase of the kinetic tidal energy forcing mechanism. The overall salinity variation from surface to bottom during two tidal cycles was from 20.5 to 36.3 and 29 to 36.7 in the neap and spring tide experiments, respectively; in the last experiment, the tropical water (TW) mass intrusion was enhanced. The net salt transport reversed from down to up estuary during the neap and spring tide experiments, respectively, varied from 6.0 to –2.0 kg m−1 s−1, an indication of changes in the main forcing of the estuary dynamics. Evaluation of a classical steady analytical model, in comparison with nearly steady experimental vertical profiles of velocity, shows an agreement classifiable as reasonably fair.  相似文献   

13.
On 29–30 November 2006, heavy rains from Supertyphoon Durian remobilized volcanic debris on the southern and eastern slopes of Mount Mayon, generating major lahars that caused severe loss of life and property in downstream communities. The nearby Legaspi City weather station recorded 495.8 mm of rainfall over 1.5 days at rates as high as 47.5 mm/h, far exceeding the initiation threshold for Mayon lahars. For about 18 h, floods and lahars from the intense and prolonged rainfall overtopped river bends, breaching six dikes through which they created new paths, buried downstream communities in thick, widespread deposits, and caused most of the 1,266 fatalities. In order to mitigate damage from future lahars, the deposits were described and analyzed for clues to their generation and impact on structures and people. Post-disaster maps were generated from raw ASTER and SPOT images, using automated density slicing to characterize lahar deposits, flooded areas, croplands, and urbanized areas. Fieldwork was undertaken to check the accuracy of the maps, especially at the edges of the lahar deposits, and to measure the deposit thicknesses. The Durian event was exceptional in terms of rainfall intensity, but the dikes eventually failed because they were designed and built according to flood specifications, not to withstand major lahars.  相似文献   

14.
Nevado del Huila, a glacier-covered volcano in the South of Colombia’s Cordillera Central, had not experienced any historical eruptions before 2007. In 2007 and 2008, the volcano erupted with phreatic and phreatomagmatic events which produced lahars with flow volumes of up to about 300 million m3 causing severe damage to infrastructure and loss of lives. The magnitude of these lahars and the prevailing potential for similar or even larger events, poses significant hazards to local people and makes appropriate modeling a real challenge. In this study, we analyze the recent lahars to better understand the main processes and then model possible scenarios for future events. We used lahar inundation depths, travel duration, and flow deposits to constrain the dimensions of the 2007 event and applied LAHARZ and FLO-2D for lahar modeling. Measured hydrographs, geophone seismic sensor data and calculated peak discharges served as input data for the reconstruction of flow hydrographs and for calibration of the models. For model validation, results were compared with field data collected along the Páez and Simbola Rivers. Based on the results of the 2007 lahar simulation, we modeled lahar scenarios with volumes between 300 million and 1 billion m3. The approach presented here represents a feasible solution for modeling high-magnitude flows like lahars and allows an assessment of potential future events and related consequences for population centers downstream of Nevado del Huila.  相似文献   

15.
Mt. Semeru, the highest mountain in Java (3,676 m), is one of the few persistently active composite volcanoes on Earth, with a plain supporting about 1 million people. We present the geology of the edifice, review its historical eruptive activity, and assess hazards posed by the current activity, highlighting the lahar threat. The composite andesite cone of Semeru results from the growth of two edifices: the Mahameru ‘old’ Semeru and the Seloko ‘young’ Semeru. On the SE flank of the summit cone, a N130-trending scar, branched on the active Jonggring-Seloko vent, is the current pathway for rockslides and pyroclastic flows produced by dome growth. The eruptive activity, recorded since 1818, shows three styles: (1) The persistent vulcanian and phreatomagmatic regime consists of short-lived eruption columns several times a day; (2) increase in activity every 5 to 7 years produces several kilometer-high eruption columns, ballistic bombs and thick tephra fall around the vent, and ash fall 40 km downwind. Dome extrusion in the vent and subsequent collapses produce block-and-ash flows that travel toward the SE as far as 11 km from the summit; and (3) flank lava flows erupted on the lower SE and E flanks in 1895 and in 1941–1942. Pyroclastic flows recur every 5 years on average while large-scale lahars exceeding 5 million m3 each have occurred at least five times since 1884. Lumajang, a city home to 85,000 people located 35 km E of the summit, was devastated by lahars in 1909. In 2000, the catchment of the Curah Lengkong River on the ESE flank shows an annual sediment yield of 2.7 × 105 m3 km−2 and a denudation rate of 4 105 t km−2 yr−1, comparable with values reported at other active composite cones in wet environment. Unlike catchments affected by high magnitude eruptions, sediment yield at Mt. Semeru, however, does not decline drastically within the first post-eruption years. This is due to the daily supply of pyroclastic debris shed over the summit cone, which is remobilised by runoff during the rainy season. Three hazard-prone areas are delineated at Mt. Semeru: (1) a triangle-shaped area open toward the SE has been frequently swept by dome-collapse avalanches and pyroclastic flows; (2) the S and SE valleys convey tens of rain-triggered lahars each year within a distance of 20 km toward the ring plain; (3) valleys 25 km S, SE, and the ring plain 35 km E toward Lumajang can be affected by debris avalanches and debris flows if the steep-sided summit cone fails.  相似文献   

16.
Forward Looking Infrared Radiometer (FLIR) cameras offer a unique view of explosive volcanism by providing an image of calibrated temperatures. In this study, 344 eruptive events at Stromboli volcano, Italy, were imaged in 2001–2004 with a FLIR camera operating at up to 30 Hz. The FLIR was effective at revealing both ash plumes and coarse ballistic scoria, and a wide range of eruption styles was recorded. Eruptions at Stromboli can generally be classified into two groups: Type 1 eruptions, which are dominated by coarse ballistic particles, and Type 2 eruptions, which consist of an optically-thick, ash-rich plume, with (Type 2a) or without (Type 2b) large numbers of ballistic particles. Furthermore, Type 2a plumes exhibited gas thrust velocities (>15 m s−1) while Type 2b plumes were limited to buoyant velocities (<15 m s−1) above the crater rim. A given vent would normally maintain a particular gross eruption style (Type 1 vs. 2) for days to weeks, indicating stability of the uppermost conduit on these timescales. Velocities at the crater rim had a range of 3–101 m s−1, with an overall mean value of 24 m s−1. Mean crater rim velocities by eruption style were: Type 1 = 34 m s−1, Type 2a = 31 m s−1, Type 2b = 7 m s−1. Eruption durations had a range of 6–41 s, with a mean of 15 s, similar among eruption styles. The ash in Type 2 eruptions originates from either backfilled material (crater wall slumping or ejecta rollback) or rheological changes in the uppermost magma column. Type 2a and 2b behaviors are shown to be a function of the overpressure of the bursting slug. In general, our imaging data support a broadening of the current paradigm for strombolian behavior, incorporating an uppermost conduit that can be more variable than is commonly considered.  相似文献   

17.
To quantify the contribution of hyporheic community respiration to whole running-water ecosystem respiration in a cultural landscape setting, we studied the vertical hydraulic exchange in riffle–pool sequences of the River Lahn (Germany). We used flow through curves from four tracer experiments to estimate flow velocities in the surface and subsurface water. Generally, vertical exchange velocities were higher in riffle sections and a high temporal variability was observed (range of values 0.11–1.08 m day−1). We then used (1) the exchange velocities and (2) time series of dissolved oxygen concentration in surface and subsurface water to calculate hyporheic respiration. Hyporheic respiration was estimated in a range of 10–50 mg O2 m−3 day−1 for the upper sediment layer (first 20 cm). It was much lower in the deeper sediment layer (20–40 cm), ranging from 0 to 10 mg O2 m−3 day−1 (volumes are volumes of interstitial water; the average porosity was 20%). We determined primary production and respiration of the biofilm growing on the sediment by modelling dissolved oxygen concentration time series for a 2,450 m long stream reach (dissolved oxygen concentrations with diurnal variations from 8 to 16 mg L−1). Modelled respiration rates ranged from 2 to 21 g O2 m2 day−1. All information was integrated in a system analysis with numerical simulations of respiration with and without sediments. Results indicated that hyporheic respiration accounted for 6 to 14% of whole ecosystem respiration. These values are much lower than in other whole system respiration studies on more oligotrophic river systems.  相似文献   

18.
During the Pamir Himalayan project in the year 1975 seismic refraction and wide-angle reflection data were recorded along a 270 km long Lawrencepur-Astor (Sango Sar) profile in the northwest Himalayas. The profile starts in the Indus plains and crosses the Main Central Thrust (MCT), the Hazara Syntaxis, the Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) and ends to the east of Nanga Parbat. The seismic data, as published by Guerra et al. (1983), are reinterpreted using the travel-time ray inversion method of Zelt and Smith (1992) and the results of inversion are constrained in terms of parameter resolution and uncertainty estimation. The present model shows that the High Himalayan Crystallines (HHC, velocity 5.4 km s−1) overlie the Indian basement (velocity 5.8–6.0 km s−1). The crust consists of four layers of velocity 5.8–6.0, 6.2, 6.4 and 6.8 km s−1 followed by the upper mantle velocity of 8.2 km s−1 at a depth of about 60 km.  相似文献   

19.
Vertical ash plumes were imaged at Santiaguito (Guatemala) using a thermal camera to capture plume ascent dynamics. The plumes comprised a convecting plume front fed by a steady feeder plume. Of the 25 plumes imaged, 24 had a gas thrust region within which ascent velocities were 15–50 m s−1. A transition to buoyant ascent occurred 20 to 50 m above the vent, where ascent velocities declined to 4–15 m s−1. Plumes that attained greater heights had higher heat contents, wider feeder plumes and higher buoyant ascent velocities.  相似文献   

20.
Lahars, here defined as debris flows of volcanic origin, are rapid mass movements that pose a serious threat to cities located in the vicinity of many volcanoes. Quito, capital city of Ecuador and placed at the foot of the Pichincha volcano complex, is exposed to serious inundation hazard as part of the city is built on numerous deposits of large lahars that have occurred in the last 10,000 years.The objective of this paper is to model the potential lahars of the Pichincha volcano to predict inundation areas within the city of Quito. For this purpose two models that apply different approaches were utilized and their results were compared.The programs used were LAHARZ, a semi-empirical model conceived by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and FLO-2D, a hydraulic model distributed by FLO Software Inc. LAHARZ is designed as a rapid, objective and reproducible automated method for mapping areas of potential lahar inundation (Proc. First Int. Conf. on Debris Flow Hazards Mitigation, San Francisco, USA, ASCE, 1998, p. 176). FLO-2D is a two-dimensional flood routing model for simulating overland flow on complex surfaces such as floodplains, alluvial fans or urbanized areas (FLO-2D Users manual, version 99.2). Both models run within geographical information systems (GIS).Fieldwork was focused on collecting all available information involved in lahar modeling. A total of 49 channel cross-sections were measured along the two main streams and stratigraphic investigations were carried out on the fans to estimate the volume of previous events. A global positioning system was utilized to determine the coordinates of each cross-section. Further data collection concerned topography, rainfall characteristics and ashfall thicknesses. All fieldwork was carried out in cooperation with the Instituto Geofisico of the Escuela Politecnica Nacional.Modeling in a GIS environment greatly aided the exportation of results for the creation of thematic maps and facilitated model comparison. Evaluation of the models was performed by comparing simulation results against each other and against the geometry of existing lahar deposits.  相似文献   

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