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1.
高能粒子流对地震活动的可能调制 总被引：10，自引：2，他引：8
把地球作为一个开放系统，本文分析了不同地域范围的地震活动和太阳活动的关系，发现不同地域的地震活动也存在着一个大约１１年的周期，这个周期可能与太阳活动的１１年左右周期有关，但地震周期的峰值对应于太阳活动的下降段。它们的关系是负相关关系，本文进一步着重分析了地震活动与高速太阳风粒子流和宇宙线高能粒子流的关系，发现它们之间存在着一信信度水平很高的正相关，这样，我们可以推测太阳活动可能是通过调制到达地球的 相似文献
2.
一、引言 太阳是离地球最近的一颗恒星。地球上绝大部份能量来源于太阳。太阳活动对地球上的各种物质运动形式(包括地壳运动)存在着广泛的影响。太阳与地震的关系最早被人们注意的是太阳(和月亮)的引力对地球产生的固体潮,认为它可能是地震的一种触发机制。随着太阳物理学、空间物理学和地球动力学的发展,人们开始注意到太阳活动产生的电磁辐射和高能粒子流对地震的发生可能存在着不可忽视的物理作用。太阳活动 相似文献
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日月影响与云南未来地震趋势研究 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
详细分析了20世纪云南强震群体盛衰的天文背景，文中指出月亮白赤交角变化产生的交点潮可能是影响地震长周期活动的一个原因。分析结果表明，20世纪以来云南的4个M≥6．7级强震活跃期有3个始发于月亮白赤交角极大年或其次年，仅第一个地震活跃期不是如此，所以总概率达80％。另外，无论太阳活动还是地震活动均存在11年的准周期，据此，作者利用20世纪云南历年最大地震的震级作了4组11年周期的外推，估计了下一个地震活跃期首发地震的时间和震级。综括上述2个天文条件，根据目前月亮白赤交角变化与太阳活动形势，我们认为云南下一个地震活跃期可能开始于2006／2007年，并可能持续活动至2015年，该期间将有较多M≥6．7级地震发生，将构成云南又一个地震重灾期。文中还对强震首发地点作了预测估计。 相似文献
6.
在太阳活动与地震相关研究的基础上指出：在周期性太阳活动的调控下,地震活动也显示也明显的周期性演化。地震除存在１１ａ周期外,还存在２２ａ周期,后者形成了本世纪 来地震的４个活跃期和４个平静期。云南在地震活动活跃期中,大震的时间间隔隔有逾缩短的趋势,其遵循Ｔｘ＝△Ｔ＾１／２的方幂规律演化。在一个活跃期中,最后一个大震的时间间隔比这个规律规定的时间间隔更短。如果某个大震的爆发时间比由这个规律预测的时间相 相似文献
7.
地球自转变化与中国大陆地震活动关系的初步分析 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
本文利用天文观测的日长变化时间序列和我国地震资料，统计分析了地球自转十年尺度变化、年限变化和季节性变化与中国大陆地震活动间的相关性。结果表明，中国大陆地震活动与地球自转变化在时间尺度上存在着一定的全局性联系，地球自转变化引起的附加应力可能对中国大陆地震活动起一定的触发作用，中国大陆地震活动与地球自转变化在空间尺度上存在着一定的地区性联系，以东西向的天山地震带与日长变化的相关性最为显著，南北向的中轴地震带和东西向的燕山地震带次之，而北北东向的山西地震带跟日长变化则没有确定的对应关系。分析结果表明，天文观测的地球自转资料可以为我国大陆地震预测提供一种参考依据。 相似文献
8.
地球物理现象和太阳活动中的高频振荡 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文用几种谱分析方法了从１９７６年７月－１９９２年９月期间的地球物理资料（日长变化，大气角动量）和太阳活动及１９７６年７月－１９８７年１２月的日冕指数。结果证实所有序列中呈现出４０－６０天的振荡，同时也表明：它们的振幅和周期是随时间变化的。本文研究了谱结构的时空分布和讨论地球物理象与太阳活动之间的可能联系。 相似文献
9.
日月影响与云南未来地震趋势研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
详细分析了20世纪云南强震群体盛衰的天文背景,文中指出月亮白赤交角变化产生的交点潮[1]可能是影响地震长周期活动的一个原因。分析结果表明,20世纪以来云南的4个M≥6.7级强震活跃期有3个始发于月亮白赤交角极大年或其次年,仅第一个地震活跃期不是如此,所以总概率达80%。另外,无论太阳活动还是地震活动均存在11年的准周期,据此,作者利用20世纪云南历年最大地震的震级作了4组11年周期的外推,估计了下一个地震活跃期首发地震的时间和震级。综括上述2个天文条件,根据目前月亮白赤交角变化与太阳活动形势,我们认为云南下一个地震活跃期可能开始于2006/2007年,并可能持续活动至2015年,该期间将有较多M≥6.7级地震发生,将构成云南又一个地震重灾期。文中还对强震首发地点作了预测估计。 相似文献
10.
对太阳活动和太阳风影响地球自转的研究现状作了评述。首先了地球自转变化的表示和测定方法，引起地球自转变化的各种扰动源以及自转长期变化中的潮汐效应和非潮汐效应。然后对地球自转变化中的太阳活动周期调制，太阳耀斑可能引起地球自转突然减速以及太阳风能否影响地球自转等问题的国内外研究现状和结果、分析作了谰论性阐述，最后作了简要总结。 相似文献
11.
Intermediate-term periodicities in solar activity 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The presence of intermediate-term periodicities in solar activity, at approximately 323 and 540 days, has been claimed by different authors. In this paper, we have performed a search for them in the historical records of two main indices of solar activity, namely, the daily sunspot areas (cycles 12–21) and the daily Zürich sunspot number (cycles 6–21). Two different methods to compute power spectra have been used, one of them being especially appropriate to deal with gapped time series. The results obtained for the periodicity near 323 days indicate that it has only been present in cycle 21, while in previous cycles no significant evidence for it has been found. On the other hand, a significant periodicity at 350 days is found in sunspot areas and Zürich sunspot number during cycles 12–21 considered all together, also having been detected in some individual cycles. However, this last periodicity must be looked into with care due to the lack of confirmation for it coming from other features of solar activity. The periodicity around 540 days is found in cycles 12, 14, and 17 in sunspot areas, while during cycles 18 and 19 it is present, with a very high significance, in sunspot areas and Zürich sunspot number. It also appears at 528 days in sunspot areas during cycles 12–21. On the other hand, it is important to note the coincidence between the asymmetry, favouring the northern hemisphere, of sunspot areas and solar flares during cycle 19, and the fact that the periodicity at 540 days was only present, with high significance, in that hemisphere during that solar cycle. 相似文献
12.
In this paper we report an analysis of the solar magnetic fluxes estimated in the period 1971–1998. We applied the wavelet
technique to find the significant periodicities of these series. We concentrate particularly in the mid-term quasi-periodicities
(1–2 years). The mid-term periodicity of 1.7 year is the dominant fluctuation for all the types of fluxes analyzed (total,
closed, open, low and high latitude open fluxes) and has a strong tendency to appear during the descending phase of solar
activity. The mid-term fluctuation of 1 year is significantly present in total and closed fluxes, but it is less important
in open fluxes. It is recognizable in the high latitude open flux, but it is absent in the low latitude open flux. Due to
the uncertainties involved in estimating the exact period of the quasi-annual peak, this component may not be different from
the previously-reported 1.3 year periodicity. The high frequency fluctuations of all the fluxes but the high latitude open
flux are in phase with the 11 years solar cycle. The high latitude flux tends to be present all the time, showing that along
the cycle both the low latitude bipolar active regions and the polar coronal holes regulate this flux. These findings rule
out the possibility of a more basic periodicity different from the 11 years cycle. 相似文献
13.
Periodicity in the 13–14 day range for full-disk UV fluxes comes mainly from episodes of solar activity with two peaks per rotation, produced by the solar rotational modulation from two groups of active regions roughly 180° apart in solar longitude. Thirteen-day periodicity is quite strong relative to the 27-day periodicity for the solar UV flux at most wavelengths in the 1750–2900 Å range, because the rapid decrease in UV plage emission on average with increasing solar central angle shapes the UV variations for two peaks per rotation into nearly a 13-day sinusoid, with deep minima when the main groups of active regions are near the limb. Chromospheric EUV lines and ground-based chromospheric indices have moderate 13-day periodicity, where the slightly greater emission of regions near the limbs causes a lower strength relative to the 27-day variations than in the above UV case. The lack of 13-day periodicity in the solar 10.7 cm flux is caused by its broad central angle dependence that averages out the 13-day variations and produces nearly sinusoidal 27-day variations. Optically thin full-disk soft X-rays can have 13-day periodicity out of phase with that of the UV flux because the X-ray emission peaks when both groups of active regions are within view, one group at each limb, when the optically thick UV flux is at a rotational minimum. The lack of 13-day periodicity in the strong coronal lines of Fexv at 284 Å and Fexvi at 335 Å during episodes of 13-day periodicity in UV and soft X-ray fluxes shows that the active region emission in these strong lines is not optically thin; resonant scattering is suggested to cause an effective optical depth near unity in these hot coronal lines for active regions near the limb. 相似文献
14.
简要介绍了国内外太阳活动研究的现状 ,指出由于太阳活动对地球和人类生活的影响 ,尤其是随着空间探测和技术的发展 ,对太阳活动研究的需求更加迫切 ,太阳活动研究受到各国政府和社会更大的重视。在这样的背景下 ,加上各种高新技术和卫星探测的进步 ,2 1世纪将迎来太阳活动研究的新时代。文中对我国未来太阳活动研究的方向、重点和措施也提出了建议。 相似文献
15.
Adopting the autoregressive method for time-series modeling, we have made a study on the medium-term forecast of solar 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7). The result of forecast experiments and the error analysis indicate that when the solar activity is at a rather low level and the 27-day periodicity of F10.7 is apparent, the autoregressive forecast method has a high accuracy and relatively ideal effectiveness, but when a large active region appears or disappears on the solar dusk, the forecast effectiveness is not ideal. This means that the autoregressive method for the time-series modeling can reflect well the 27-day periodicity of F10.7, and that it has certain applicability for building a mediumterm forecast model of F10.7. By comparing the forecast results in the period from 21th September 2005 to 7th June 2007, it is demonstrated that the accuracy of the autoregressive forecast method is equivalent to that of the forecast made by the American Air Force. 相似文献
16.
基于对 2 0世纪中国大陆 7.0级以上大地震与月亮白赤交角的变化和太阳活动的研究结果 ,根据对未来 50a (年 )月亮白赤交角的值与目前太阳活动的形势 ,提出 2 1世纪中国大陆第一个大地震活动幕可能是 2 0 0 6或 2 0 0 7～ 2 0 1 5年 相似文献
17.
本文研究了1971－1980年间51个大于3％的宇宙线福布希下降对我国185个气象站上空雷暴活动的短期影响.结果表明，雷暴活动对福布希下降的短期响应存在明显的空间差异．在一些区域中福布希下降后雷暴活动明显增强，而在另一些区域中明显减弱，在这些明显响应区中，雷暴活动在福布希下降前后的差异显著性分别通过了10-2－10－6置信度检验．这些响应区所在的地理位置与雷暴活动对耀斑爆发的响应区相互对应，但响应性质恰恰相反．这些结果给太阳活动与地球短期天气相关机理研究提出了新的挑战，也为进一步的研究提供了新的事实根据． 相似文献
18.
In order to investigate the relationship between magnetic-flux emergence, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we study the periodicity in the time series of these quantities. It has been known that solar flares, sunspot area, and photospheric magnetic flux have a dominant periodicity of about 155 days, which is confined to a part of the phase of the solar cycle. These periodicities occur at different phases of the solar cycle during successive phases. We present a time-series analysis of sunspot area, flare and CME occurrence during Cycle 23 and the rising phase of Cycle 24 from 1996 to 2011. We find that the flux emergence, represented by sunspot area, has multiple periodicities. Flares and CMEs, however, do not occur with the same period as the flux emergence. Using the results of this study, we discuss the possible activity sources producing emerging flux. 相似文献
19.
Nan-Bin Xiang 《天文和天体物理学研究(英文版)》2019,(9)
The Magnetic Plage Strength Index(MPSI) and the Mount Wilson Sunspot Index(MWSI), which have been measured at Mount Wilson Observatory(MWO) since the 1970 s and which indicate weak and strong magnetic field activity on the solar full disk, respectively, are used to systematically investigate midterm periodicities in the solar full-disk magnetic fields. Multitudinous mid-term periodicities are detected in MPSI and MWSI on timescales of 0.3 to 4.5 yr, and these periodicities are found to fluctuate around several typical periodicities within a small amplitude in different solar cycles or phases. The periodicity of 3.44 yr is found in MPSI, and the periodicities of 3.85 and 3.00 yr are detected in MWSI. Our analysis indicates that they reflect the true oscillating signals of solar magnetic field activity. The typical periodicities are 2.8,2.3 and 1.8 yr in MPSI and MWSI, and possible mechanisms for these periodicities are discussed. A 1.3 yr periodicity is only detected in MPSI, and should be related to meridional flows on the solar surface. The typical annual periodicity of MPSI and MWSI is 1.07 yr, which is not derived from the annual variation of Earth's heliolatitude. Several periodicities shorter than 1 yr found in MPSI and MWSI are considered to be Rieger-type periodicities. 相似文献
20.
K. J. Li Q. X. Li P. X. Gao J. Mu H. D. Chen T. W. Su 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2007,28(2-3):147-156
Long-term variation in the distribution of the solar filaments observed at the Observatorie de Paris, Section de Meudon from
March 1919 to December 1989 is presented to compare with sunspot cycle and to study the periodicity in the filament activity,
namely the periods of the coronal activity with the Morlet wavelet used. It is inferred that the activity cycle of solar filaments
should have the same cycle length as sunspot cycle, but the cycle behavior of solar filaments is globally similar in profile
with, but different in detail from, that of sunspot cycles. The amplitude of solar magnetic activity should not keep in phase
with the complexity of solar magnetic activity. The possible periods in the filament activity are about 10.44 and 19.20 years.
The wavelet local power spectrum of the period 10.44 years is statistically significant during the whole consideration time.
The wavelet local power spectrum of the period 19.20 years is under the 95% confidence spectrum during the whole consideration
time, but over the mean red-noise spectrum of α = 0.72 before approximate Carrington rotation number 1500, and after that the filament activity does not statistically show
the period. Wavelet reconstruction indicates that the early data of the filament archive (in and before cycle 16) are more
noiseful than the later (in and after cycle 17). 相似文献