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This study analyzes the impacts of latent and sensible heat exchanges between the atmosphere and the ocean in a non-explosive Shapiro–Keyser type cyclogenesis event that occurred over the southwestern South Atlantic Ocean. The synoptic evolution shows a relatively strong warm front and a cold frontal fracture during the system’s development and a warm seclusion in its mature stage, characterizing a Shapiro–Keyser type cyclone. Numerical experiments with the ARW-WRF Model version 3.3 were used to investigate the influences of sensible and latent fluxes on the track of the surface low, intensity of the fronts and coupling of the lower and upper troposphere. The simulations indicate that in the presence of these fluxes the cyclone underwent greater intensification, had a longer life time and longer trajectory, and presented a typical southeastward movement. In the absence of these fluxes, the cyclone developed a weaker warm front with consequent reduction of diabatic heating due to grid scale precipitation along it. This reduced the negative pressure tendency southeast of the cyclone center and the surface cyclone moved northeastward, showing a decoupling of the lower- and upper-level waves. A consequence of this anomalous tracking is the location of the surface cyclone beneath the upper-level trough axis, where there is no upper-level divergence associated with cyclonic vorticity advection contributing to the further system intensification. Numerical experiments suggest that for this Shapiro–Keyser type cyclone the air–sea interaction processes are crucial to obtain a cyclone with features similar to the observations. 相似文献
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地面摩擦和大尺度流场是影响锋面气旋结构演变的重要因子,本文使用WRF模式并采用湿物理方案,通过理想化试验,综合考虑陆面摩擦、气旋式扰动相对于急流位置和大尺度流场对锋面气旋结构变化的影响.结果表明：当仅考虑单一因子时,气旋式扰动位于急流南侧和辐合流流场有利于气旋形成Shapiro-Keyser（S-K）模型结构.当同时考虑地面摩擦和大尺度辐合时,气旋式扰动位于急流北侧的气旋发展整体向经典的挪威气旋模型转变;扰动位于急流南侧的的气旋发展则整体呈现S-K模型结构,此时辐合流场有利于S-K模型结构出现.当同时考虑地面摩擦和大尺度辐散时,扰动处于急流北侧的气旋呈现挪威气旋模型结构;由于气旋式扰动穿越急流和辐散流场同时有利于暖锋后弯发展以及冷暖锋距离加大和锋消,扰动处于急流南侧的气旋呈现典型S-K气旋模型结构.这个结果解释了在东亚大陆地区辐散场形势下出现的S-K模型结构气旋个例. 相似文献
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The circulation in the Straits of Florida is dominated by the throughflow of the Florida Current, as modified by tidal flows,
responses to atmospheric cold front and extratropical cyclone (easterly wave and tropical cyclone) passages in winter (summer),
and intrinsic mesoscale variability due to instabilities of the Florida Current front and jet system. Monthly meanders of
the Florida Current, persistent oceanic fronts associated with the Florida Current’s baroclinic jet, and frontal eddies shed
weekly by the Florida Current are the primary mesoscale features. A limited area model (Princeton Ocean Model: POM) is implemented
to cover the Straits of Florida with a curvilinear grid that resolves the mesoscale structure, especially where the baroclinic
flow is locked to steep topography in a 90 degree bend of the Straits. Florida Current cyclonic frontal eddies are spawned
spontaneously, grow as they translate downstream, interact with shelf waters, and exhibit the same space-time attributes that
characterize their observed counterparts, as evidenced by satellite imagery, shipboard synoptic mapping, coastal HF radar,
and moored time series. Here, a deeper understanding is attempted for the frontal eddy kinematics and dynamics by examining,
for example, their sensitivity to model parameter values, synoptic versus monthly atmospheric forcing, and other determinants
of the flow. The mean flow shears are concentrated along the shelfbreak, where these frontal eddies are trapped, favoring
the formation of the eddies by mean flow instabilities. In particular, it is found that the Florida Current frontal eddies
exist independent of the wind-forcing considered (i.e., no winds, monthly winds, and synoptic (but not mesoscale) winds);
however, they are modulated by the synoptic wind-forcing. Nevertheless, intriguingly, the frontal eddies have the same weekly
time scale as the weather cycle. 相似文献
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Numerical Simulation of Andhra Severe Cyclone (2003): Model Sensitivity to the Boundary Layer and Convection Parameterization 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
C. V. Srinivas R. Venkatesan D. V. Bhaskar Rao D. Hari Prasad 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1465-1487
The Andhra severe cyclonic storm (2003) is simulated to study its evolution, structure, intensity and movement using the Penn
State/NCAR non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model MM5. The model is used with three interactive nested domains at 81,
27 and 9 km resolutions covering the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Peninsula. The performance of the Planetary Boundary
Layer (PBL) and convective parameterization on the simulated features of the cyclone is studied by conducting sensitivity
experiments. Results indicate that while the boundary layer processes play a significant role in determining both the intensity
and movement, the convective processes especially control the movement of the model storm. The Mellor-Yamada scheme is found
to yield the most intensive cyclone. While the combination of Mellor-Yamada (MY) PBL and Kain-Fritsch 2 (KF2) convection schemes
gives the most intensive storm, the MRF PBL with KF2 convection scheme produces the best simulation in terms of intensity
and track. Results of the simulation with the combination of MRF scheme for PBL and KF2 for convection show the evolution
and major features of a mature tropical storm. The model has very nearly simulated the intensity of the storm though slightly
overpredicted. Simulated core vertical temperature structure, winds at different heights, vertical winds in and around the
core, vorticity and divergence fields at the lower and upper levels—all support the characteristics of a mature storm. The
model storm has moved towards the west of the observed track during the development phase although the location of the storm
in the initial and final phases agreed with the observations. The simulated rainfall distribution associated with the storm
agreed reasonably with observations. 相似文献
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—A ten-level axi-symmetric primitive equation model with cylindrical coordinates is used to simulate the tropical cyclone evolution from a weak vortex for the Bay of Bengal region. The physics of the model comprises the parameterization schemes of Arakawa-Schubert cumulus convection (Lord et al., 1982) and Deardorff’s (1972) planetary boundary layer. The initial conditions have been taken from the climate mean data for November of Port Blair (92.4 E, 11.4 N) in the Bay of Bengal, published by the India Meteorological Department. An initial vortex has been designed to have tangential wind maximum of 10 m/s at 120-km radius with a central surface pressure of 1008 hPa. As a control experiment, referred to as ASBB1, the model is integrated for 240 h maintaining the sea-surface temperature (SST) constant at 301 K. The results of the control experiment reveal a slow decrease of the Central Surface Pressure (CSP) from the initial value of 1008 hPa to 970 hPa at 156 h. After 156 h the CSP decreased sharply until 186 h, attaining 890 hPa. The tangential wind at 1 km level attained the Cyclone Threshold Intensity (CTI) of 17 m/s around 78 h and a maximum of 87 m/s was found at 210 h. These features indicate a predeveloping stage up to 156 h, a deepening stage of 30 h from 156–186 h followed by the mature stage. The mature stage is characterized by the simulation of the central eye region, warm core, strong cyclonic circulation in the central 300 km with low-level inflow; strong vertical motion at the eye wall and outflow aloft. The convection features of the different cloud types conform with the circulation features. The control experiment clearly indicates the evolution of a cyclone with hurricane intensity from a weak vortex. In part two of the paper, results from sensitivity experiments with respect to variations in latitude, SST and initial thermodynamic state have been presented. 相似文献
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The tropical cyclones form over the oceanic regions where conventional meteorological observations are not available. This
contributes to a poor initial analysis of the cyclonic vortex and hence inadequate forecast. One way of overcoming the above
problem is to modify the initial analysis by replacing the weak and ill-defined vortex in the initial analysis with a synthetic
vortex having the correct size and intensity at the correct location. In this study we are investigating the effect of inclusion
of a synthetic vortex based on Rankine as well as on Holland wind profiles, using NCAR-AFWA bogussing scheme for the prediction
of four tropical cyclones, which formed over the Bay of Bengal during November 2002 and 2005, December 2005 and over the Arabian
Sea during May 2004, using the MM5 model. Two numerical experiments are designed in this study for each of the above four
cyclones. In the first experiment the model is integrated with a synthetic vortex based on Rankine wind profile while in the
second experiment we utilize the Holland wind profile. For the November 2002 cyclone, in both the experiments the model is
integrated from 10 November 2002 18 UTC to 12 November, 2002 12 UTC with the synthetic vortex inserted at the initial time.
The results of the study for the November 2002 cyclone show that the model simulation with the Holland vortex has produced
a stronger cyclone in terms of minimum sea-level pressure and maximum wind speed. Also, the results for the November 2002
cyclone with the Holland vortex showed a better longitudinal height section of the horizontal wind speed across the center
of the cyclone. The track error of the cyclone for the November 2002 cyclone is less in the model simulation with the Holland
vortex at the initial time and at 24 hours of forecast. The results for the November 2002 cyclone with the Rankine vortex
showed greater vertical wind speed as compared to the Holland vortex. However, for the November 2002 cyclone there were no
significant differences in the spatial distribution of precipitation for both the experiments. In order to provide an adequate
number of case studies for a good statistical sample, the present study is extended for three additional cyclones over the
Indian region. All four cyclones studied here show that the Holland vortex has produced a stronger cyclone in terms of the
minimum sea-level pressure and maximum wind speed. The Holland vortex showed a better vertical structure of wind speed in
the longitudinal height section at 24 hours of forecast for the November 2005 cyclone while the structure was better for the
Rankine vortex for the remaining two cyclones. There were no significant differences in the spatial distribution of precipitation
for the two experiments corresponding to all four cyclones. Some statistical results pertaining to all four cyclones are provided
such as the average track error as well as the average difference between the observed and the model minimum sea-level pressure
and the maximum wind speed. The statistical results corresponding to the average of all the four cyclones are at only a slight
variance with the results corresponding to the November 2002 cyclone. 相似文献
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Abstract Results of a comprehensive synoptic-hydrological analysis of major flood events in the Negev (1964–2007) are presented. A low threshold for major flood data was set to be the 10-year recurrence interval of peak discharge and/or flood volume magnitude. Altogether, 75 major flood events, or 133 hydrometrically monitored floods, were extracted. These events were categorized according to synoptic oriented classes by verification of the paired databases of: (a) floods in the study area, and (b) synoptic systems over the Eastern Mediterranean. For the study area, two of the most frequent flood-generating synoptic systems are the autumn Red Sea Trough (RST), 31%, and winter cyclones, 49%. The entire RST series consists of 24 major flood events (55 floods). The synoptic definition was corroborated by analysing the specific form of flood hydrographs and the ratio of flood volume to peak discharge. Regional analysis shows increased contribution of RST events southwards from 30% to 90% with a respective decrease in the number of cyclone events. By comparing two 22-year sub-periods (1964–1985 and 1986–2007), a positive trend in the frequency and magnitudes of RST flood events is discerned. There is also an increased tendency for the occurrence of cyclone floods. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Shentsis, I., Laronne J.B., and Alpert, P., 2012. Red Sea Trough flood events in the Negev, Israel (1964–2007). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 42–51. 相似文献
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Mechanism of the Spring Persistent Rains over southeastern China 总被引：28，自引：0，他引：28
The Spring Persistent Rains (SPR) in the areas to the south of middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River or over southeastern China (SEC) is a unique synoptic and climatic phenomenon in East Asia. This study reveals a possible mechanism responsible for the climatic cause of SPR formation through climatic mean data analysis and sensitive numerical model experiments. SEC is located at the down-stream of the southwesterly velocity center (SWVC) which lies on the southeastern flank of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). As a result, there are strong southwesterly wind velocity convergence and moisture con-vergence over SEC. This is the immediate climatic cause of SPR formation. In spring, the seasonal evolution of the southwesterly velocity consists with the surface sensible heating over southeastern TP, indicating that the formation of SPR is related to not only the southwesterly wind of mechanical de-flected flow of TP, but also the southwesterly wind of thermal-forced cyclonic low circulation. Sensitive numerical experiments demonstrate that, without TP, both SWVC and the SPR rain belt will disappear. The southwesterly wind velocity increases almost linearly with the amount of the total diabatic heating with TP rising. Therefore, SWVC is the result of the mechanical forcing and thermal forcing of TP. All these strongly suggest that the presence of TP plays a primary role in the climatic formation of SPR. 相似文献
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For the accurate and effective forecasting of a cyclone, it is critical to have accurate initial structure of the cyclone in numerical models. In this study, Kolkata Doppler weather radar (DWR) data were assimilated for the numerical simulation of a land-falling Tropical Cyclone Aila (2009) in the Bay of Bengal. To study the impact of radar data on very short-range forecasting of a cyclone's path, intensity and precipitation, both reflectivity and radial velocity were assimilated into the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model through the ARPS data assimilation system (ADAS) and cloud analysis procedure. Numerical experiment results indicated that radar data assimilation significantly improved the simulated structure of Cyclone Aila. Strong influences on hydrometeor structures of the initial vortex and precipitation pattern were observed when radar reflectivity data was assimilated, but a relatively small impact was observed on the wind fields at all height levels. The assimilation of radar wind data significantly improved the prediction of divergence/convergence conditions over the cyclone's inner-core area, as well as its wind field in the low-to-middle troposphere (600–900 hPa), but relatively less impact was observed on analyzed moisture field. Maximum surface wind speed produced from DWR–Vr and DWR–ZVr data assimilation experiments were very close to real-time values. The impact of radar data, after final analysis, on minimum sea level pressure was relatively less because the ADAS system does not adjust for pressure due to the lack of pressure observations, and from not using a 3DVAR balance condition that includes pressure. The greatest impact of radar data on forecasting was realized when both reflectivity and wind data (DWR–ZVr and DWR–ZVr00 experiment) were assimilated. It is concluded that after final analysis, the center of the cyclone was relocated very close to the observed position, and simulated cyclone maintained its intensity for a longer duration. Using this analysis, different stages of the cyclone are better captured, and cyclone structure, intensification, direction of movement, speed and location are significantly improved when both radar reflectivity and wind data are assimilated. As compared to other experiments, the maximum reduction in track error was noticed in the DWR–ZVr and DWR–ZVr00 experiments, and the predicted track in these experiments was very close to the observed track. In the DWR–ZVr and DWR–ZVr00 experiments, rainfall pattern and amount of rainfall forecasts were remarkably improved and were similar to the observation over West Bengal, Orissa and Jharkhand; however, the rainfall over Meghalaya and Bangladesh was missed in all the experiments. The influence of radar data reduces beyond a 12-h forecast, due to the dominance of the flow from large-scale, global forecast system models. This study also demonstrates successful coupling of the data assimilation package ADAS with the WRF model for Indian DWR data. 相似文献
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D. R. Toomey W. S. D. Wilcock J. A. Conder D. W. Forsyth J. D. Blundy E. M. Parmentier W. C. Hammond 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2002,200(3-4):287-295
The mantle electromagnetic and tomography (MELT) experiment found a surprising degree of asymmetry in the mantle beneath the fast-spreading, southern East Pacific Rise (MELT Seismic Team, Science 280 (1998) 1215–1218; Forsyth et al., Science 280 (1998) 1235–1238; Toomey et al., Science 280 (1998) 1224–1227; Wolfe and Solomon, Science 280 (1998) 1230–1232; Scheirer et al., Science 280 (1998) 1221–1224; Evans et al., Science 286 (1999) 752–756). Pressure-release melting of the upwelling mantle produces magma that migrates to the surface to form a layer of new crust at the spreading center about 6 km thick (Canales et al., Science 280 (1998) 1218–1221). Seismic and electromagnetic measurements demonstrated that the distribution of this melt in the mantle is asymmetric (Forsyth et al., Science 280 (1998) 1235–1238; Toomey et al., Science 280 (1998) 1224–1227; Evans et al., Science 286 (1999) 752–756) at depths of several tens of kilometers, melt is more abundant beneath the Pacific plate to the west of the axis than beneath the Nazca plate to the east. MELT investigators attributed the asymmetry in melt and geophysical properties to several possible factors: asymmetric flow passively driven by coupling to the faster moving Pacific plate; interactions between the spreading center and hotspots of the south Pacific; an off-axis center of dynamic upwelling; and/or anomalous melting of an embedded compositional heterogeneity (MELT Seismic Team, Science 280 (1998) 1215–1218; Forsyth et al., Science 280 (1998) 1235–1238; Toomey et al., Science 280 (1998) 1224–1227; Wolfe and Solomon, Science 280 (1998) 1230–1232; Evans et al., Science 286 (1999) 752–756). Here we demonstrate that passive flow driven by asymmetric plate motion alone is not a sufficient explanation of the anomalies. Asthenospheric flow from hotspots in the Pacific superswell region back to the migrating ridge axis in conjunction with the asymmetric plate motion can create many of the observed anomalies. 相似文献
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V. B. Titov 《Water Resources》2005,32(1):23-30
Seasonal evolution of the vertical thermal, halininc, and density structure of water in the phases of warming and heat loss is shown. The annual cycle of variability of seasonal and deep-water thermo-, halo-, and pycnocline is discussed. It is revealed that variations in the seasonal (subsurface) thermo-, halo-, and pycnocline depend on the surface environmental factors (air temperature, river runoff, and precipitation), while variations in the deep-water thermo-, halo-, and pycnocline depend on the dynamic factor impact (seasonal variations in the intensity of the general cyclonic circulation in the Black Sea).Translated from Vodnye Resursy, Vol. 32, No. 1, 2005, pp. 28–34.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Titov. 相似文献
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Stochastic multi-site generation of daily weather data 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Malika Khalili François Brissette Robert Leconte 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(6):837-849
Spatial autocorrelation is a correlation between the values of a single variable, considering their geographical locations.
This concept has successfully been used for multi-site generation of daily precipitation data (Khalili et al. in J Hydrometeorol
8(3):396–412, 2007). This paper presents an extension of this approach. It aims firstly to obtain an accurate reproduction
of the spatial intermittence property in synthetic precipitation amounts, and then to extend the multi-site approach to the
generation of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and solar radiation data. Monthly spatial exponential functions
have been developed for each weather station according to the spatial dependence of the occurrence processes over the watershed,
in order to fulfill the spatial intermittence condition in the synthetic time series of precipitation amounts. As was the
case for the precipitation processes, the multi-site generation of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and solar
radiation data is realized using spatially autocorrelated random numbers. These random numbers are incorporated into the weakly
stationary generating process, as with the Richardson weather generator, and with no modifications made. Suitable spatial
autocorrelations of random numbers allow the reproduction of the observed daily spatial autocorrelations and monthly interstation
correlations. The Peribonca River Basin watershed is used to test the performance of the proposed approaches. Results indicate
that the spatial exponential functions succeeded in reproducing an accurate spatial intermittence in the synthetic precipitation
amounts. The multi-site generation approach was successfully applied for the weather data, which were adequately generated,
while maintaining efficient daily spatial autocorrelations and monthly interstation correlations. 相似文献
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ZHOU Xuan YANG XiaoFeng LI ZiWei YU Yang BI HaiBo MA Sheng LI XiaoFeng 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2013,56(11):1977-1987
The traditional method of Synthetic Aperture Radar(SAR)wind field retrieval is based on an empirical relation between the near surface winds and the normalized radar backscatter cross section to estimate wind speeds,where this relation is called the geophysical model function(GMF).However,the accuracy rapidly decreases due to the impact of rainfall on the measurement of SAR and the saturation of backscattered intensity under the condition of tropical cyclone.Because of no available instrument synchronously monitoring rain rate on the satellite platform of SAR,we have to derive the precipitation of the SAR observation time from non-simultaneous passive microwave observations of rain in combination with geostationary IR images,and then use the model of rain correction to remove the impact of rain on SAR wind field measurements.For the saturation of radar backscatter cross section in high wind speed conditions,we develop an approach to estimate tropical cyclone parameters and wind fields based on the improved Holland model and the SAR image features of tropical cyclone.To retrieve the low-to-moderate wind speed,the wind direction of tropical cyclone is estimated from the SAR image using wavelet analysis.And then the maximum wind speed and the central pressure of tropical cyclone are calculated by a least square minimization of the difference between the improved Holland model and the low-to-moderate wind speed retrieved from SAR.In addition,wind fields are estimated from the improved Holland model using the above-mentioned parameters of tropical cyclone as input.To evaluate the accuracy of our approach,the SAR images of typhoon Aere,typhoon Khanun,and hurricane Ophelia are used to estimate tropical cyclone parameters and wind fields,which are compared with the best track data and reanalyzed wind fields of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC)and the Hurricane Research Division(HRD).The results indicate that the tropical cyclone center,maximum wind speed,and central pressure are generally consistent with the best track data,and wind fields agree well with reanalyzed data from HRD. 相似文献
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海洋中普遍存在的涡旋对全球海洋热、盐通量有重要贡献.一条于2000年6月在中美洲鹦鹉湾采集的地震剖面L115捕获到了一个海水次表层透镜状反射结构.透镜状反射的宽度约150 km,厚度约500 m,深度从100 m延伸到约600 m,核心深约200 m.结合和地震采集时间近同步的再分析数据中的流速和海水温度数据以及计算的Rossby数和Okubo-Weiss参数,将其解释为气旋涡,且可能是亚中尺度相干涡(SCV).由于地震剖面并未穿过涡旋核心水,涡旋顶底与核心水外层水团的双扩散作用使得剖面上的气旋涡中心表现为上下相邻的强反射双核结构.同航次采集的与L115大致正交的其他几条地震剖面也捕捉到了这个气旋涡.这些剖面整体的反射特征一致性较好,但和L115差异较大,涡旋内部普遍表现为近水平的中等强度反射.涡旋上边界为倾斜的强反射,这是气旋涡的等温线上凸引起的,这里也是亚中尺度锋面的发育区.这些地震剖面的涡旋反射特征的差异表明了该气旋涡空间结构的不对称性和时间演化特征. 相似文献
18.
In early 2008, cold water in the Taiwan Strait (TWS) was moved sequentially by a cross-strait flow and a southward flow to the Penghu Island, causing a cold-related fish kill disaster. Except for the local wind forcing, the coastal-trapped waves (CTWs), intermittently propagating toward the TWS from north in winter, are an additional factor that could impact the flow patterns by changing cross-strait sea-level gradient during the disaster. In the first stage (January 28–February 7), the reach of a large CTW trough induced an additional northward flow, which formed a cyclone after turning around the Zhangyun Ridge. Then, the cyclone led to an additional cross flow, which enhanced an eastward (offshore) movement of cold water. In the second stage (February 7–14), the arrival of a large CTW crest triggered an additional southward flow, which intensified a southward movement of the cold water. Due to the additional eastward and southward movements caused by the CTWs, the cold water could reach Penghu Island inducing a cold disaster. 相似文献
19.
《Advances in water resources》2005,28(6):601-614
The synoptic and large-scale atmospheric conditions for heavy rainfall events in Northwestern Italy are diagnosed through the joint analysis of surface precipitation gauges and reanalysis atmospheric fields. Quantiles of local surface gauge precipitation observations are used to estimate the much larger-scale composite maps (conditional mean fields) of vertically integrated moisture flux, low-level winds, sea-level pressure, and 500 hPa height across the Atlantic and European domains. Remarkably, coarse-resolution reanalysis data show distinct synoptic conditions for heavy precipitation in localized regions that are below the resolution of the reanalysis. In this paper the key attributes of the new approach that is based on the joint analysis of gridded reanalysis and station data are presented. The application of the methodology are used to establish supporting evidence for hydrometeorological processes that lead to extreme precipitation across Northwest Italy. The results confirm the role of large-scale flow features that interact with regional topography in producing localized extreme precipitation. Whereas previous studies were based on a few case studies (modeled or observational), in this study the approach to producing a large ensemble of cases and composite statistics are introduced. 相似文献
20.
Landsliding in eastern Scotland results from high-magnitude rainstorms generated under either cyclonic or anticyclonic conditions, particularly during the summer. Data from Aviemore indicated that cyclonic storms produce higher rainfall totals than anticyclonic storms, as well as being of longer duration and lower intensity. The distribution of rain during individual storms also varies with the synoptic conditions under which the storms are produced. These different rainfall characteristics produce different geomorphic responses, which can be investigated in detail using physical based modelling. In this paper, a physically based coupled hydrology–stability model is used to assess the significance of these rainfall characteristics to soil moisture response and slope instability for mature podsols. The results provide evidence that rainstorms of different synoptic origin produce varying hydrological response, involving both the extent and the timing of moisture content change. This affects the depth and timing of slope failure, with anticyclonic storms promoting a large, rapid response in the factor of safety at shallow depths within the soil. Cyclonic storms produce a more gradual response, with the region of probable failure being deeper. Futhermore, each of these storm types is associated with different rainfall distributions, and this is also shown to have a significant effect on the timing and depth of slope instability. 相似文献