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1.
Paleoecologists widely accept macroscopic plant remains preserved in lake sediment as good indicators of the vegetation communities growing within and adjacent to the margin of a lake or mire. However, the study of ash fallout from a small to moderate size forest fire in a low elevation Pseudotsuga menziesii/Pinus contorta/Abies lasiocarpa stand near Bozeman, Montana suggests that certain macroscopic plant remains can be transported long distances through the atmosphere. Conifer needles, pollen cones, cone scales, bracts and wood fragments were transported via the atmosphere and subsequently deposited at least 20 km from the forest fire. The majority of the plant remains that were identified were A. lasiocarpa needles. Pseudotsuga menziesii and P. contorta needles were also identified, but both were less abundant than A. lasiocarpa. The plant material that was recovered exhibited varying degrees of charring suggesting that it may be difficult to distinguish plant material that has been transported long-distances by forest fires from that which has been derived locally. Severe convection and vortices associated with intense forest fires are believed to be the primary mechanisms responsible for transporting plant material via the atmosphere.  相似文献   

2.
Analysis of 18Ocellulose, 13Corganic matter, and 13Ccellulose at about 100 year intervals from organic matter deposited in Toronto Lake, Northwest Territories, Canada, revealed an 8000-year history of rapid, post-glacial hydrologic change at the treeline zone. Several mid-Holocene phases of enriched 13Corg and 13Ccell, caused by elevated lake productivity, declining [CO2(aq)], and closed basin conditions, were abruptly terminated by intervals of open hydrology recorded by sharply depleted 18Ocell. Two of these events, at 5000 and 4500 BP, are correlated with increased total organic content and Picea mariana pollen concentration, which indicate that high levels of productivity were also accompanied by northern treeline advances. A third treeline advance at about 2500 BP is also marked by an apparent outflow event from Toronto Lake, but this was not associated with 13Corg/cell enrichment in the sediment record because rapid and substantial lake water renewal probably prevented productivity-driven enrichment of the dissolved inorganic carbon and replenished the CO2(aq) supply to thriving phytoplankton. However, high sediment organic content during this period suggests increased productivity. Increases in the inflow:evaporation ratio at about 6500 and 3500 BP were also sufficient to cause Toronto Lake to overflow but the prevailing climate during these periods apparently did not favour appreciable northward treeline migration or changes in lake productivity.This is the 14th in a series of papers published in this special AMQUA issue. These papers were presented at the 1994 meeting of the American Quaternary Association held 19–22 June, 1994, at the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA. Dr Linda C. K. Shane served as guest editor for these papers  相似文献   

3.
Changes in the diatom assemblages preserved in a sediment core taken from a small lake located north of arctic treeline on the western Taimyr Peninsula, Russia, were examined in order to investigate late Holocene (i.e., ca 5000 cal yr BP to present) climatic and environmental changes within the region. Early diatom assemblages were dominated by benthic Fragilaria taxa and indicate a transitional phase in the lake history, most likely reflecting lake development and environmental change associated with treeline retreat to the south of the study site. Concurrent with pollen and macrofossil evidence of a vegetation shift to shrub tundra in the catchment basin at ca 4200 cal yr BP, an increase in cold-water taxa, followed by little change in diatom assemblages until ca 2800 cal yr BP, suggests that conditions were relatively cool and stable at this time. The last 2000 years of the Middendorf Lake record have been marked by fluctuating limnological conditions, characterized by striking successional shifts between Fragilaria pinnata and Aulacoseira distans var. humilis. Recent conditions in Middendorf Lake indicate an increase in diatom taxa previously rare in the record, possibly associated with twentieth-century climatic warming. The Middendorf Lake record indicates that significant limnological change may occur in the absence of catchment vegetation shifts, suggesting late-Holocene decoupling of aquatic and terrestrial responses to climatic and hydrological change. Our study results represent one of the few paleoecological records currently available from northern Russia, and highlight the need for further development of calibration data sets from this region.  相似文献   

4.
Paleolimnological analyses were used to infer limnological changes during the past ~ 300 yrs in the west basin of Peninsula Lake, a small (853 ha) Precambrian Shield lake in Ontario, Canada, that has been subjected to moderate cultural disturbances (forest clearance, cottage and resort development). This study represents a pioneering attempt to use sedimentary chironomid assemblages and weighted-averaging models to quantify past hypolimnetic anoxia (expressed as the anoxic factor, AF). Impacts of forest clearance and human land-use on deepwater oxygen availability and surface water quality were assessed by comparing chironomid-inferred AF and diatom-inferred total phosphorus concentration ([TP]) to changes in terrestrial pollen and historical data. This study also discusses the ability of chironomids to quantitatively infer changes in AF.Pre-disturbance chironomid assemblages were stable and dominated by taxa indicative of oxygen-rich hypolimnetic conditions (e.g., Protanypus, Heterotrissocladius, Micropsectra type), while diatoms indicated oligotrophic lake status (diatom inferred [TP] = 5-7 g·l-1). Chironomids characteristic of lower oxygen availability (e.g., Chironomus, Procladius) increased following land-clearance, road construction, establishment of a grist mill and lakeshore development beginning ca. 1870. Increased abundances of Tanytarsus s. lat., a multigeneric group of mainly littoral chironomids, since 1900, indicated that littoral chironomids may have comprised a greater proportion of fossil assemblages during periods of eutrophication and prolonged anoxia. Abundances of meso-eutrophic diatom taxa (e.g., Fragilaria crotonensis, Asterionella formosa, Aulacoseira ambigua, A. subarctica) increased concurrent with European settlement (ca. 1870) and diatom-inferred [TP] doubled (~ 6-12 g·l-1), further indicating that naturally-oligotrophic Precambrian Shield lakes were extremely sensitive to initial land-clearance activities.Recent increases in oligotrophic diatom taxa (e.g., Cyclotella stelligera) indicate a shift to more oligotrophic conditions since ca. mid-1960s, with greatest changes since ca. 1980. The chironomids Heterotrissocladius and Micropsectra type also increased at this time suggesting greater deepwater oxygen availability. These recent water-quality improvements, possibly in response to enhanced nutrient removal from detergents and sewage, climate-related reductions in external phosphorus loads, and catchment (but not lake) acidification and reforestation, suggest that habitat for commercially-valuable cold-water fishes has improved in recent decades despite greater recreational lake-use.Paleolimnological assessment of trophic status changes in Peninsula Lake using fossil diatom and chironomid assemblages were in good agreement. Diatom inferences of [TP] and chironomid inferences of AF both suggest that Peninsula Lake was historically oligotrophic, became oligo-mesotrophic after European settlement, and returned to oligotrophy in recent yrs. Chironomid inferences of [TP] consistently underestimated the trophic status of Peninsula Lake, possibly due to its relatively large hypolimnion. These results suggest that AF represents a useful tool for quantitatively reconstructing the past trophic status of deeper, stratified lakes.  相似文献   

5.
Surficial sediments from 76 lakes from two western Quebec regions(Abitibi and Haute Mauricie) were sampled to identify the relationships betweendiatoms and environmental variables. Because the two regions containedradically different diatom communities, we then investigated which factors maybe responsible for the large community discrepancies in the two nearbygeographical areas. Standard lake chemistry variables showed little differencesbetween the regions, although epilimnetic light regimes were slightly lower inAbitibi. Nevertheless, lakes of the two regions with similar light regimes andchemistry still showed a clear separation in their diatoms, implying that otherimportant factors are influencing assemblages. We found that the calculatedconcentration of CO2 in the open water can explain some of thediscrepancy in diatom assemblages. A pCCA constrained to the concentration ofCO2 with alkalinity and pH as covariables explained 12.5% of speciesvariance and was significant. Given the lack of a relationship between DOC andCO2, and because the lakes are heavily supersaturated withCO2 in the calibration set, lake-to-lake variations inCO2 concentrations are likely due to groundwater inputs; thepossibility that this environmental variable may be influencing diatomcommunities might allow, in some cases, the reconstruction of historicalchanges in groundwater inputs to lakes. Finally, new calibration models werebuilt in Quebec by using weighted averaging partial least square(WA-PLS) techniques in order to infer pH, CO2, TP, TN, and, DOC fromdiatom assemblages preserved in the surface sediments.  相似文献   

6.
Mn-carbonates are documented in the late-glacial varved sediments from Big Watab Lake, Minnesota, USA. The Mn-carbonate is authigenic and forms rims around contemporaneous epilimnetic calcite. Although such carbonates are found in minor amounts throughout the entire late-glacial sequence, significant quantities of Mn-carbonate are associated mainly with laminated intervals.Because of the suspected difference in isotopic fractionation between different carbonate minerals, the stable-isotopic compositions of bulk carbonate samples are used as a proxy for relative amounts of the Mn-carbonate in the sediment. High 18O and low 13C values are associated with abundant Mn-carbonates. Low 18O and high 13C values are associated with only minor concentrations of Mn-carbonates.The oxygen-18 record is correlated with fluctuations in the vegetation assemblage based on pollen spectra using a multiple regression model with backward elimination. The proposed link between the sedimentary archive and local vegetation is the mediation of advective mixing in the lake by forest composition. In this model, periods of forest closure resulted in a well-stratified water column that was anoxic at the sediment/water interface, permitting the formation of authigenic Mn-carbonates. Openings of Artemisia in the forest allowed wind shear to mix oxygen to depth, causing bioturbation of the laminations and preventing the formation of Mn-carbonate.  相似文献   

7.
We examined changes in and relationships between radial growth and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) trees, climate, and atmospheric CO2 in the western United States since the mid-nineteenth century. We developed tree-ring chronologies for eight sites in three climate regions and used carbon isotope data to calculate pentadal values of iWUE. We examined relationships among radial growth, climate, iWUE, and CO2 via correlation and regression analyses. Significant upward trends in iWUE occurred at all sites, and despite an absence of climate changes that would favor growth, upward radial growth trends occurred at five sites. Our findings suggest that increased iWUE associated with rising CO2 can positively impact tree growth rates in the western United States and are thus an evolving component of forest ecosystem processes.  相似文献   

8.
Multi-proxy palaeoecological and palaeolimnological studies of the sedimentary record of Sägistalsee, a small lake at the present-day timberline in the Swiss Alps, reveal distinct changes in its catchment vegetation in relation to Holocene climate change and human impact. Four phases of catchment vegetation type were defined based on plant macrofossil analyses: open Betula-Pinus cembra woodland, Abies alba-Pinus cembra woodland, Picea abies forest, and cultural pasture. The expansion of spruce 6300 cal. BP had a major impact on all abiotic proxies, whereas the reaction of the biotic proxies to this catchment change was lagged by several centuries. During the Bronze Age (ca. 4000 cal. BP) the spruce forest was cleared and the catchment began to be used as grazing pastures. Changes in sedimentology, geochemistry, and magnetic parameters closely reflect the changes in catchment vegetation. The catchment vegetation types explain a statistically significant amount of the variance in the chironomid, cladoceran, sedimentological, and magnetic data but not in the geochemical data. The strong catchment-lake interaction masks any biotic responses to millennium-scale climatic oscillations.  相似文献   

9.
This study contrasts the effects of human disturbances on two very different lake/catchment systems: Hatch Pond and Beaver Lake, New Hampshire. Hatch is in a steep mountain catchment remote from urban/industrial centers, and is a small, relatively deep, primarily seepage lake with moderate flushing rate. The catchment has been continuously forested, but disturbed by partial loggings and a forest fire. Beaver’s more extensive and gently sloping catchment is much closer to urban/industrial centers, and has been agricultural and recently suburban. Beaver is a larger but shallower drainage lake with much more rapid flushing than Hatch. We compared the sedimentary records and inferred limnological responses to catchment land uses and air pollution inputs of these mesotrophic lakes, and interpreted differing responses as a function of basic differences between the lakes and their catchments. Some chemical and biological variables in the sediment of both lakes respond sensitively to the first disturbances of the catchments by Euro-American settlers. Diatom-inferred Cl at both lakes indicates a modest increase of salinity at this time. Hatch sediment contains a record of soil erosion starting 1810 with first logging and fire. For ~125 years, erosion was largely of upper eluviated soil, but by 1935 it reached deeper into the illuviated (enriched) horizon. Maximal lake trophic state based on diatom-inferred limnological variables occurred in the mid-1900’s period of maximum sedimentation of illuviated soil. The sediment record since 1964 reflects forest maturation, and soil stabilization and acidification, but not lake acidification. At Beaver, the limnological effects of forest clearance and agriculture starting ~1700 were relatively mild due to gentleness of slopes and soil characteristics favoring stability. A near doubling of earth elements, and major increases in trace metal pollutants and coal combustion particles (CCP) occurred in sediment dating around 1900. Landscape analysis as well as historical and sedimentary records preclude the catchment as the major source of these increases. The most likely source is atmospheric fallout of CCP with its metal load. Despite controls on CCP and other emissions starting 1960, concentrations of earth elements and trace metals in Beaver sediment remain high due to soil mobilization by residential development of the catchment. The trophic state of Beaver Lake has increased, but the relative increase has been smaller than at Hatch, despite more intensive land uses and greater aerial inputs at Beaver. We propose that this lesser eutrophication is due to rapid flushing of Beaver Lake with stream water from relatively undeveloped parts of the extensive catchment, and lower sensitivity to nutrient inputs of this naturally more eutrophic lake. A major shift from unicellular to colonial chrysophytes at Hatch starts in the late-1800’s, and at Beaver in the early 1900’s. Colonial taxa in lesser quantities appear at the time of first settlement of the Beaver catchment. At both lakes the shifts are correlated with increasing metal fluxes from the opening of catchment biogeochemical cycles, as with the aforementioned erosional sequence at Hatch. But at Hatch aerial inputs of trace metals, and at Beaver aerial inputs major and trace metals associated with CCP are also correlated with the major chrysophyte shift. It appears that the chrysophytes have responded to stressors associated with both catchment disturbance and regional atmospheric inputs.  相似文献   

10.
Totolcingo (El Carmen), a large and now episodically filled playa lake in the east-ernmost portion of the Mexican Plateau, filled with water in 1993. Water persisted for just one month (May). Alkaline (pH 10), saline (K25 up to 30,000S/cm) waters, dominated by NaHCO3 and Na2CO3, characterized the lake. The fauna was depauperate. The components of the fauna wereEphydra (Hydropyrus)hians Say (ephydrid),Limnodrilus hoffmeisteri Claparède (tubificid), andBerosus sp. (Coleoptera). The species in the lake were widely dispersed and typical inhabitants of saline lakes. Possible reasons for the depauperate fauna include (a) overall physical and chemical conditions, (b) unpredictable hydrology, and (c) the short (one month) inundation period prevented colonization.  相似文献   

11.
The environmental history of the Kootenay Valley in the southern Canadian Rockies was reconstructed using lake sediment from Dog Lake, British Columbia, and compared to other paleoenvironmental studies in the region to understand how vegetation dynamics and fire regimes responded to climate change during the Holocene. A pollen-based vegetation reconstruction indicates five periods of vegetation change. At 10,300 cal yr B.P. Pinus-Juniperus parkland colonized the valley and by 7600 cal yr B.P. was replaced by mixed stands of Pinus, Picea and Pseudotsuga/Larix. Fire frequencies increased to their Holocene maximums during the 8200–4000 cal yr B.P. period. From 5500–4500 cal yr B.P. Pseudotsuga/Larix reached its maximum extent in the Kootenay Valley under a more frequent fire regime. At 5000 cal yr B.P. Picea and Abies began to expand in the area and by 4500 cal yr B.P. the forest shifted to a closed montane spruce forest type with dramatically reduced fire frequency. The shift to less frequent forest fires after 4500 cal yr B.P., along with a moisterPicea – dominated closed forest, corresponds to Neoglacial advances in the Canadian Rockies and Coast Mountains. Fire intervals after 4000 cal yr B.P. are significantly longer than the shorter fire intervals of the early to mid Holocene. A return to drier, more open forest condition occurs between 2400–1200 cal yr B.P. with a slight increase in fire activity and summer drought events. Lower lake levels inferred by charophyte accumulation rates during the 2400–1200 cal yr B.P. interval support this moisture regime shift. An abrupt shift toPicea dominated forest occurred from 1200–1000 cal yr B.P. and a final period of wet-closed forest cover reaches its maximum extent from 700–150 cal yr B.P. that appears to be a response to Little Ice Age cooling. Present forests are within their natural range of variability but are predicted to shift again to a drier more open structure with increased Pseudotsuga/Larix cover. More frequent stand replacing fires and increased area burned likely will accompany this change due to continued global warming.  相似文献   

12.
A diatom transfer function to infer epilimnetic total phosphorus (TP) concentration was derived using surface sediment diatom data from 68 medium-sized (10–1000 ha) lakes in Southern Finland. Publicly available monitoring records were used in lake selection to avoid gradients caused by pH and humic substances. Constrained and partially constrained ordinations indicated that TP was an important variable influencing diatom assemblages. A long floristic gradient in relation to TP was also apparent and therefore an inference model was developed for TP using unimodal-based regression and calibration methods. The final model included 61 lakes with epilimnetic TP concentrations between 3 and 89 g P l–1, measured during the autumnal circulation period. It has a jackknifed-estimated root mean squared error of prediction of 0.16 log g P l–1, a maximum bias of 0.28 log g P l–1, and an r2 jack of 0.76.The model was tested in the presently eutrophic Lake Valkjärvi (epilimnetic [TP] 60–85 g P l–1), located in Southern Finland. It successfully predicted the measured autumnal epilimnetic TP concentration for the past twenty years and the changes in inferred [TP] reflected disturbances known to have occurred before that time. The diatom-based inferences show that Lake Valkjärvi was oligo-mesotrophic as late as the 1930's and has become eutrophic because of nutrient inputs from agriculture and, especially, municipalities. However, epilimnetic TP concentration has not increased further.  相似文献   

13.
Late Quaternary environments have been studied by pollen analysis of lake sediments from the savannas of the Colombian Llanos Orientales at 180 m elevation. The pollen record form Laguna El Pinal (4°08N, 70°23W), dated by 6 AMS radiocarbon dates, starts at 18,290 14C yr B.P. The record from Laguna Carimagua (4°04N, 70°14W), also dated by 6 AMS dates, starts at 8270 14C yr B.P. Both records show a landscape dominated by grassland savanna with only few woody savanna taxa, such as Curatella and Byrsonima, frequent fires, and little occurrence of forest and/or gallery forest along the rivers. The savanna ecosystem at the studied sites was relatively stable during the last 18,000 yrs, but minor changes in floral composition, and in the proportion of savanna/forest, have been recorded. Very little gallery forest and the non permanent lake conditions of Laguna El Pinal reflect the driest period, interpreted to reflect low rainfall rates and long dry seasons during the Last Glacial Maximum until 10,690 14 C yr B.P. During the Late Glacial, Laguna El Pinal was a permanent shallow lake, and changed into a lake with higher water levels during the Holocene, indicating wetter conditions. Expansion of regional gallery forest also started at around 10,690 14C yr B.P. Little vegetational change observed in Laguna Carimagua at 5570 14 C yr B.P., in combination with a simultaneous decrease of savanna observed in previously studied lakes, suggest a change to regional wetter conditions. Thus, the Holocene before 5500 14 C yr B.P. was somewhat drier than the following period until about 3850 14C yr B.P. In both records, Late Holocene lake deposits are incomplete. Shore vegetation of Laguna Carimagua always included a minor contribution of the palms Mauritia and Mauritiella. The marked increase of palms during the last c. 3800 yrs points to increased human impact on the vegetation under the wettest Holocene climate regime.  相似文献   

14.
Sediment trap studies and high frequency monitoring are of great importance to develop a deeper understanding of how seasonal environmental processes are imprinted in sediment signal formation. We collected whole year diatom assemblages from 2002 to 2014 with a sequential sediment trap from a varved boreal lake (Nylandssjön, Sweden) together with environmental and limnological parameters, and compared them with the corresponding diatom record of the annual laminated sediment. Our data set indicates a large year-to-year variability of diatom succession and abundance patterns, which is well reflected in the varved sediments. Specifically, Cyclotella glomerata dominated the annual sediment trap record (as well as in the corresponding sediment varves) in years with warmer air temperatures in March/April, and Asterionella formosa dominated the annual sediment assemblages as a consequence of years characterized by higher runoff before lake over-turn. Years succeeding forest clearance in the lake catchment showed marked increase in diatom and sediment flux. The DCA scores of the yearly diatom trap assemblages clearly resemble the lake’s thermal structure, which indicates that the relative abundance of major taxa seems primarily controlled by the timing of seasonal environmental events, such as above-average winter air temperature and/or autumn runoff and the current thermal structure of the lake. The high seasonal variability between environmental drivers in combination with the physical limnology leaves us with several possible scenarios leading to either an A. formosa versus C. glomerata dominated annual diatom sediment signal. With this study we highlight that short-term environmental events and seasonal limnological conditions are of major importance for interpreting annual sediment signals.  相似文献   

15.
A paleolimnological investigation of post-European sediments in a Lake Michigan coastal lake was used to examine the response of Lower Herring Lake to anthropogenic impacts and its role as a processor of watershed inputs. We also compare the timing of this response with that of Lake Michigan to examine the role of marginal lakes as early warning indicators of potential changes in the larger connected system and their role in buffering Lake Michigan against anthropogenic changes through biotic interactions and material trapping. Sediment geochemistry, siliceous microfossils and nutrient-related morphological changes in diatoms, identified three major trophic periods in the recent history of the lake. During deforestation and early settlement (pre-1845–1920), lake response to catchment disturbances results in localized increases in diatom abundances with minor changes in existing communities. In this early phase of disturbance, Lower Herring Lake acts as a sediment sink and a biological processor of nutrient inputs. During low-lake levels of the 1930s, the lake goes through a transitional period characterized by increased primary productivity and a major shift in diatom communities. Post-World War II (late 1940s–1989) anthropogenic disturbances push Lower Herring Lake to a new state and a permanent change in diatom community structure dominated by Cyclotella comensis. The dominance of planktonic summer diatom species associated with the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) is attributed to epilimnetic nutrient depletion. Declining Si:P ratios are inferred from increased sediment storage of biogenic silica and morphological changes in the silica content of Aulacoseira ambigua and Stephanodiscus niagarae. Beginning in the late 1940s, Lower Herring Lake functions as a biogeochemical processor of catchment inputs and a carbon, nutrient and silica sink. Microfossil response to increased nutrients and increased storage of biogenic silica in Lower Herring Lake and other regional embayments occur approximately 20–25 years earlier than in a nearby Lake Michigan site. Results from this study provide evidence for the role of marginal lakes and bays as nutrient buffering systems, delaying the impact of anthropogenic activities on the larger Lake Michigan system.  相似文献   

16.
Close correspondence between stable carbon isotope ratios ( 13 C), pollen, and charcoal profiles in sediment cores from Laguna Zoncho and Machita swamp, Costa Rica, shows that prehistoric forest clearance and crop cultivation can be detected in the stable carbon isotope ratios of total organic carbon ( 13C TOC ). Analyses of δ 13C TOC complement evidence from pollen, charcoal, and phytoliths and provide a proxy that is sensitive to the intensity and/or proximity to core sites of prehistoric forest clearance and agriculture in watersheds. Stable carbon isotope analyses are particularly useful in situations in which other evidence of forest clearance and agriculture is limited.  相似文献   

17.
To investigate the response of a remote boreal lake to recent climate warming, a 200-year varved sediment record from Rainbow Lake A (RLA), located in the northern boreal forest of Wood Buffalo National Park, straddling northern Alberta and the Northwest Territories (Canada), was investigated using diatom assemblages and biogenic silica concentrations. Diatom community composition, trends in diatom-inferred total phosphorus (TP) and biogenic silica levels all showed significant changes beginning between circa 1830 and 1840, coincident with the onset of increasingly warm June/July temperatures in northern Canada. We evaluated several hypotheses which may have caused these nutrient changes, including local anthropogenic disturbances, forest fires, increased atmospheric deposition of nutrients or pollen, and internal sources of nutrient regeneration. We concluded that TP is likely increasing as a result of enhanced internal cycling of phosphorus due to either increased thermal stratification in response to warmer summer temperatures and/or decreased meromictic stability. The results presented here, in combination with other recent paleolimnological research in northern latitude regions, suggest widespread aquatic response to increasing temperatures beginning in the 19th century.  相似文献   

18.
Innumerable forest fire spread models exist for taking a decision, but far less focus is on the real causative factors which initiate/ignite fire in an area. It has been observed that the majority of the forest fires in India are initiated due to anthropogenic factors. In this study, we develop a geo-information system approach for management of forest fire in Mudumalai Wildlife Sanctuary, Tamil Nadu, India, with the objective to develop a forest fire likelihood model, integrating GIS and knowledge-based approach for predicting fire-sensitive initiation areas considering major causative and anti-causative factors. Amongst the various causative factors investigated, it was found that wildlife-dependent factor (antler collection and poaching) contributed significantly to fire occurrence followed by management-dependent factors (uncontrolled tourism and grazing), with much less influence of demographic factors. Similarly, anti-causative factor (stationing of anti-poaching/ fire camps) was considered as quite significant.

The likelihood model so developed, envisaging various factors and flammability, accounted for different scenarios as a result of pair-wise comparison on an ordinal scale in a knowledge matrix. The inferential statistics computed indicated the robustness of the model and its insensitivity to moderate changes. It makes it possible for this forest fire likelihood model to predict and prevent a forest fire in an effective and scientific manner because it can assume forest fire likelihood in real time and present in proper time.  相似文献   


19.
The geochemistry of ostracode shells and bulk carbonates in a 19-meter sediment core documents at century-scale resolution the evolution of water chemistry in Coldwater Lake, North Dakota, providing a continuous paleohydrologic record of Holocene climate change in the northern Great Plains. A combination of 18O, 13C, Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca in ostracode calcite aided by Sr/Ca in bulk carbonates are used to constrain the paleoclimatic reconstructions. A fresh-water phase in the early Holocene, indicated by the absence of Candona rawsoni and low concentrations of Sr/Ca in bulk carbonate, was followed by a sharp increase in salinity between 10800 and 8900 yr B.P. The climate was predominately dry during the late part of the early Holocene and most of the middle Holocene (8900–5000 yr B.P.), when the lake was very sensitive and recorded a series of dry and wet oscillations. Maximum salinity occurred around 5500 yr B.P. and was followed by a gradual decrease between 5000 and 2400 yr B.P. From 2400 yr B.P. the 18O, Mg/Ca, and Sr/Ca in the ostracodes indicate generally wet conditions interrupted by a series of lesser salinity and temperature oscillations lasting until 600 yr B.P. Ostracode geochemistry indicates that a warm and dry climate returned at about the time of the Little Ice Age (600–150 yr B.P.). Ostracode 13C shows a ong-term increasing trend during the Holocene, which suggests that lake productivity and atmospheric CO2 exchange made greater contributions to the hypolimnetic carbon pool as the lake became shallower with time.  相似文献   

20.
The paleolimnology (sediment chemistry, 210Pb dating, pollen, and diatoms) of Crystal Lake, McHenry County, Illinois, USA was studied to investigate the impact of European settlement on lake trophic status. Pollen clearly indicates a vegetational shift from Quercus dominance to Ambrosia. 210Pb dating suggests that the Ambrosia rise likely occurs around the 1840's, which is consistent with historical records on the European settlement in this area. Coincident with the vegetational shifts, several diatom species, Cyclotella meneghiniana, Fragilaria crotenensis, Asterionella formosa and Tabellaria fenestrata, all increase while C. comta decreases after the settlement. However, C. comta and Aulacoseira ambigua, two dominant species, remain abundant throughout the entire core. Their relative abundances at the surface sediments reach presettlement levels. It is hypothesized that Crystal Lake, a glacial lake rich in CaCO3, may have been able to assimilate increases of phosphorus by coprecipitating phosphorus with CaCO3. Such a 'buffering mechanism may be responsible for the lake's resistance to trophic changes or recovery following disturbance.  相似文献   

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