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1.
This study presents the first appraisal of the socio-economic impacts of river floods in the European Union in view of climate and socio-economic changes. The assessment is based on two trajectories: (a) no adaptation, where the current levels of protection are kept constant, and (b) adaptation, where the level of protection is increased to defend against future flooding events. As a basis for our analysis we use an ensemble-based pan-European flood hazard assessment for present and future conditions. Socio-economic impacts are estimated by combining flood inundation maps with information on assets exposure and vulnerability. Ensemble-based results indicate that current expected annual population affected of ca. 200,000 is projected to increase up to 360,000 due to the effects of socio-economic development and climate change. Under the no adaptation trajectory current expected annual damages of €5.5 billion/year are projected to reach €98 billion/year by the 2080s due to the combined effects of socio-economic and climate change. Under the adaptation trajectory the avoided damages (benefits) amount to €53 billion/year by the 2080s. An analysis of the potential costs of adaptation associated with the increase in protection suggests that adaptation could be highly cost-effective. There is, however, a wide range around these central numbers reflecting the variability in projected climate. Analysis at the country level shows high damages, and by association high costs of adaptation, in the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Romania, Hungary and Czech Republic. At the country level, there is an even wider range around these central values, thus, pointing to a need to consider climate uncertainty in formulating practical adaptation strategies. 相似文献
2.
Environmental change is significantly altering hydrological systems worldwide, with substantial impacts for the people who live on floodplains and depend on rivers for their livelihoods and lifeways. Amazonia is a region significantly affected by these changes, particularly more severe flooding. This paper proposes a multi-scalar approach to vulnerability, applying it empirically to the analysis of household vulnerability to the 2011 flood—the second largest flood event along the Ucayali River in 30 years—in terms of exposure, impacts, and responses. Locally relevant indicators for assets, social identity, and social networks at the community and household levels are used to examine their role in shaping flood vulnerability, the interplay of community-level and household-level factors, and differential vulnerability across exposure, impacts, and responses to the same hazard event. We find that the most common impacts of severe flooding in rural Amazonia are on agriculture and that fishing is the dominant response strategy. This study suggests that covariate shocks, like floods, can have distinct idiosyncratic impacts and responses among households. We demonstrate that more integrated approaches to vulnerability analysis offer potential for better understanding differential vulnerabilities within populations as well as for drawing comparisons across hazard events and different settings. 相似文献
3.
To develop improved estimates of (1) flooding due to storm surges, and (2) wetland losses due to accelerated sea-level rise, the work of Hoozemans et al. (1993) is extended to a dynamic analysis. It considers the effects of several simultaneously changing factors, including: (1) global sea-level rise and subsidence; (2) increasing coastal population; and (3) improving standards of flood defence (using GNP/capita as an “ability-to-pay” parameter). The global sea-level rise scenarios are derived from two General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments of the Hadley Centre: (1) the HadCM2 greenhouse gas only ensemble experiment and (2) the more recent HadCM3 greenhouse gas only experiment. In all cases there is a global rise in sea level of about 38 cm from 1990 to the 2080s. No other climate change is considered. Relative to an evolving reference scenario without sea-level rise, this analysis suggests that the number of people flooded by storm surge in a typical year will be more than five times higher due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Many of these people will experience annual or more frequent flooding, suggesting that the increase in flood frequency will be more than nuisance level and some response (increased protection, migration, etc.) will be required. In absolute terms, the areas most vulnerable to flooding are the southern Mediterranean, Africa, and most particularly, South and South-east Asia where there is a concentration of low-lying populated deltas. However, the Caribbean, the Indian Ocean islands and the Pacific Ocean small islands may experience the largest relative increase in flood risk. By the 2080s, sea-level rise could cause the loss of up to 22% of the world's coastal wetlands. When combined with other losses due to direct human action, up to 70% of the world's coastal wetlands could be lost by the 2080s, although there is considerable uncertainty. Therefore, sea-level rise would reinforce other adverse trends of wetland loss. The largest losses due to sea-level rise will be around the Mediterranean and Baltic and to a lesser extent on the Atlantic coast of Central and North America and the smaller islands of the Caribbean. Collectively, these results show that a relatively small global rise in sea level could have significant adverse impacts if there is no adaptive response. Given the “commitment to sea-level rise” irrespective of any realistic future emissions policy, there is a need to start strategic planning of appropriate responses now. Given that coastal flooding and wetland loss are already important problems, such planning could have immediate benefits. 相似文献
4.
Coastal areas around the world are urbanizing rapidly, despite the threat of sea level rise and intensifying floods. Such development places an increasing number of people and capital at risk, which calls for public flood management as well as household level adaptation measures that reduce social vulnerability to flooding and climate change. This study explores several private adaptation responses to flood risk, that are driven by various behavioral triggers. We conduct a survey among households in hazard-prone areas in eight coastal states in the USA, of which, some have recently experienced major flooding. While numerous empirical studies have investigated household-level flood damage mitigation, little attention has been given to examining the decision to retreat from flood zones. We examine what behavioral motives drive the choices for flood damage mitigation and relocation separately among property buyers and sellers. Hence, we focus on the drivers that shape demand for future development in flood-prone cities. We find that households’ choices to retreat from or to avoid flood zones (1) are highly sensitive to information that provokes people's feelings of fear, and (2) rely on hazardous events to trigger a protective action, which ideally would take place well before these events occur. We highlight that major flooding may cause a potential risk of large-scale outmigration and demographic changes in flood-prone areas, putting more low-income households at risk. Therefore, coordinated policies that integrate bottom-up drivers of individual climate adaptation are needed to increase urban resilience to floods. 相似文献
5.
This paper focuses on how scientific uncertainties about future peak flood flows and sea level rises are accounted for in long term strategic planning processes to adapt inland and coastal flood risk management in England to climate change. Combining key informant interviews (n = 18) with documentary analysis, it explores the institutional tensions between adaptive management approaches emphasising openness to uncertainty and to alternative policy options on the one hand and risk-based ones that close them down by transforming uncertainties into calculable risks whose management can be rationalized through cost-benefit analysis and nationally consistent, risk-based priority setting on the other hand. These alternative approaches to managing uncertainty about the first-order risks to society from future flooding are shaped by institutional concerns with managing the second-order, ‘institutional’ risks of criticism and blame arising from accountability for discharging those first-order risk management responsibilities. In the case of river flooding the poorly understood impacts of future climate change were represented with a simplistic adjustment to peak flow estimates, which proved robust in overcoming institutional resistance to making precautionary allowances for climate change in risk-based flood management, at least in part because its scientific limitations were acknowledged only partially. By contrast in the case of coastal flood risk management, greater scientific confidence led to successively more elaborate guidance on how to represent the science, which in turn led to inconsistency in implementation and increased the institutional risks involved in taking the uncertain effects of future sea level rise into account in adaptation planning and flood risk management. Comparative analysis of these two cases then informs some wider reflections about the tensions between adaptive and risk-based approaches, the role of institutional risk in climate change adaptation, and the importance of such institutional dynamics in shaping the framing uncertainties and policy responses to scientific knowledge about them. 相似文献
6.
In October 7–9, 2016, Hurricane Matthew moved along the southeastern coast of the U.S., causing major flooding and significant damage, even to locations farther north well away from the storm’s winds. Various observations, such as tide gauge data, cable measurements of the Florida Current (FC) transport, satellite altimeter data and high-frequency radar data, were analyzed to evaluate the impact of the storm. The data show a dramatic decline in the FC flow and increased coastal sea level along the U.S. coast. Weakening of the Gulf Stream (GS) downstream from the storm’s area contributed to high coastal sea levels farther north. Analyses of simulations of an operational hurricane-ocean coupled model reveal the disruption that the hurricane caused to the GS flow, including a decline in transport of ∼20 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1). In comparison, the observed FC reached a maximum transport of ∼40 Sv before the storm on September 10 and a minimum of ∼20 Sv after the storm on October 12. The hurricane impacts both the geostrophic part of the GS and the wind-driven currents, generating inertial oscillations with velocities of up to ±1 m s−1. Analysis of the observed FC transport since 1982 indicated that the magnitude of the current weakening in October 2016 was quite rare (outside 3 standard deviations from the mean). Such a large FC weakening in the past occurred more often in October and November, but is extremely rare in June-August. Similar impacts on the FC from past tropical storms and hurricanes suggest that storms may contribute to seasonal and interannual variations in the FC. The results also demonstrated the extended range of coastal impacts that remote storms can cause through their influence on ocean currents. 相似文献
7.
Seema Arora-Jonsson 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(2):744-751
In the limited literature on gender and climate change, two themes predominate - women as vulnerable or virtuous in relation to the environment. Two viewpoints become obvious: women in the South will be affected more by climate change than men in those countries and that men in the North pollute more than women. The debates are structured in specific ways in the North and the South and the discussion in the article focuses largely on examples from Sweden and India. The article traces the lineage of the arguments to the women, environment and development discussions, examining how they recur in new forms in climate debates. Questioning assumptions about women's vulnerability and virtuousness, it highlights how a focus on women's vulnerability or virtuousness can deflect attention from inequalities in decision-making. By reiterating statements about poor women in the South and the pro-environmental women of the North, these assumptions reinforce North-South biases. Generalizations about women's vulnerability and virtuousness can lead to an increase in women's responsibility without corresponding rewards. There is need to contextualise debates on climate change to enable action and to respond effectively to its adverse effects in particular places. 相似文献
8.
Matthew Bunce Laurence Mee Lynda D. Rodwell Richard Gibb 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(2):213-226
Few studies consider how social-ecological systems recover from disturbance. We consider the small semi-autonomous island of Rodrigues (Indian Ocean). Based on semi-structured interviews (n = 70), a fisher survey (n = 73), weather data and official records we build a timeline of key events. We tabulate local perceptions (5+ mentions) of changes (social, economic and natural capital) and look for signs of adaptive cycles in the island's social-ecological past. Rising human pressure and extreme weather event impacts are reported since first settlement. We propose a recent “collapse” phase catalysed in the 1970s by severe drought, based on respondents’ perceptions of still-ongoing changes in farming and fishing, water, external dependence, migration and inter-island political change. Connectivity (flows of people, goods, information, money, power) appear to have strengthed local island recovery, but degradation continued, not least due to water scarcity and a lack of shared political vision as Rodrigues became more tied into the wider world.Overall, our findings suggest social-ecological systems may get stuck in a post-collapse recovery without any new structure emerging, presuming adaptive cycles can even be detected. Data gaps and global change redefining spatial and temporal scales could mean the adaptive cycle's usefulness is limited in development policy-making contexts. 相似文献
9.
Potential emissions of CO2 and methane from proved reserves of fossil fuels: An alternative analysis
Scientists have argued that no more than 275 GtC (IPCC, 2013) of the world’s reserves of fossil fuels of 746 GtC can be produced in this century if the world is to restrict anthropogenic climate change to ≤2 °C. This has raised concerns about the risk of these reserves becoming “stranded assets” and creating a dangerous “carbon bubble” with serious impacts on global financial markets, leading in turn to discussions of appropriate investor and consumer actions. However, previous studies have not always clearly distinguished between reserves and resources, nor differentiated reserves held by investor-owned and state-owned companies with the capital, infrastructure, and capacity to develop them in the short term from those held by nation-states that may or may not have such capacity. This paper analyzes the potential emissions of CO2 and methane from the proved reserves as reported by the world's largest producers of oil, natural gas, and coal. We focus on the seventy companies and eight government-run industries that produced 63% of the world’s fossil fuels from 1750 to 2010 (Heede, 2014), and have the technological and financial capacity to develop these reserves. While any reserve analysis is subject to uncertainty, we demonstrate that production of these reported reserves will result in emissions of 440 GtC of carbon dioxide, or 160% of the remaining 275 GtC carbon budget. Of the 440 GtC total, the 42 investor-owned oil, gas, and coal companies hold reserves with potential emissions of 44 GtC (16% of the remaining carbon budget, hereafter RCB), whereas the 28 state-owned entities possess reserves of 210 GtC (76% of the RCB). This analysis suggests that what may be needed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system differs when one considers the state-owned entities vs. the investor-owned entities. For the former, there is a profound risk involved simply in the prospect of their extracting their proved reserves. For the latter, the risk arises not so much from their relatively small proved reserves, but from their on-going exploration and development of new fossil fuel resources. For preventing DAI overall, effective action must include the state-owned companies, the investor-owned companies, and governments. However, given that the majority of the world's reserves are coal resources owned by governments with little capacity to extract them in the near term, we suggest that the more immediate urgency lies with the private sector, and that investor and consumer pressure should focus on phasing out these companies’ on-going exploration programs. 相似文献
10.
Asbjørn Aaheim Helene Amundsen Therese Dokken Taoyuan Wei 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(4):959-968
This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change to European economies under an increase in global mean temperature at +2 °C and +4 °C. It is based on a summary of conclusions from available studies of how climate change may affect various sectors of the economies in different countries. We apply a macroeconomic general equilibrium model, which integrates impacts of climate change on different activities of the economies. Agents adapt by responding to the changes in market conditions following the climatic changes, thus bringing consistency between economic behaviour and adaptation to climate change. Europe is divided into 85 sub-regions in order to capture climate variability and variations in vulnerabilities within countries. We find that the impacts in the +2 °C are moderate throughout Europe, with positive impacts on GDP in some sub-regions and negative impacts down to 0.1 per cent per year in others. At +4 °C, GDP is negatively affected throughout Europe, and most substantially in the southern parts, where it falls by up to 0.7 per cent per year in some sub-regions. We also find that climate change causes differentiations in wages across Europe, which may cause migration from southern parts of Europe to northern parts, especially to the Nordic countries. 相似文献
11.
Peter D. Richards Robert J. Myers Scott M. Swinton Robert T. Walker 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(2):454-462
The advancement of South America's agro-pastoral frontier has been widely linked to losses in biodiversity and tropical forests, with particular impacts on the Brazilian cerrado, the Atlantic Forest, and the Amazon. Here we consider an important, yet largely overlooked, driver of South America's soybean expansion, namely the devaluation of local currencies against the US dollar in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Much interest has emerged in recent years over the environmental implications of soybean production in Brazil, with evidence of both direct incursions into moist tropical forest by soybean producers and of potential indirect effects, via the displacement of existing ranching operations. In this research we utilize historical trends in soybean prices, exchange rates, and cropland dedicated to soybean production in Bolivia, Paraguay, and Brazil to estimate the impact of currency devaluations on area of production. The results suggest that approximately 80,000 km2, or 31% of the current extent of soybean production in these countries, emerged as a supply area response to the devaluation of local currencies in the late 1990s. The results also indicate that the more recent depreciation of the dollar and appreciation of the Brazilian real have counteracted a recent rise in global soybean prices, in the process sparing an estimated nearly 90,000 km2 from new cropland, 40,000 km2 of this in the Amazon alone. Amidst an increasingly neoliberal economic environment, where barriers to trade are jettisoned in favor of the free flow of commodities, relative currency values will occupy an important role in the future sourcing of both agricultural expansion and environmental degradation. 相似文献
12.
Based on a brief account of 1,000 years of river floods and flood management in the Dutch Rhine delta, it is argued that vulnerability to river floods depends on the complex interaction of economics, institutions, politics and, to a limited extent, climate. Response functions and thresholds for climate change impacts should take this complexity into account rather than assuming society to be constant or evolving in a straightforward manner. 相似文献
13.
Globalization,Pacific Islands,and the paradox of resilience 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Matthew Lauer Simon Albert Shankar Aswani Benjamin S. Halpern Luke Campanella Douglas La Rose 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(1):40-50
On April 2nd, 2007 a 12 m tsunami struck Simbo, a relatively remote island in Western Province, Solomon Islands. Although Simbo's population continues to depend on their own food production and small-scale governance regimes regulate access to resources, the island's way of life over the last century has increasingly been affected by processes associated with globalization. In this context of a rapidly globalizing world, this article examines the island's resilience and vulnerability to the tsunami and the adaptive capacities that enabled the response and recovery. The tsunami completely destroyed two villages and damaged fringing coral reefs, but casualties were low and social–ecological rebound relatively brisk. By combining social science methods (household surveys, focus group and ethnographic interviews) and underwater reef surveys we identify a number of countervailing challenges and opportunities presented by globalization that both nurture and suppress the island's resilience to high amplitude, low-frequency disturbances like tsunamis. Analysis suggests that certain adaptive capacities that sustain general system resilience come at the cost of more vulnerability to low-probability hazards. We discuss how communities undergoing increasingly complex processes of change must negotiate these kinds of trade-offs as they manage resilience at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Understanding the shifting dynamics of resilience may be critical for Pacific Island communities who seek to leverage globalization in their favor as they adapt to current social–ecological change and prepare for future large-scale ecological disturbances. 相似文献
14.
Climate output from the UK Hadley Centre's HadCM2 and HadCM3 experiments for the period 1860 to 2100, with IS92a greenhouse gas forcing, together with predicted patterns of N deposition and increasing CO2, were input (offline) to the dynamic vegetation model, Hybrid v4.1 (Friend et al., 1997; Friend and White, 1999). This model represents biogeochemical, biophysical and biogeographical processes, coupling the carbon, nitrogen and water cycles on a sub-daily timestep, simulating potential vegetation and transient changes in annual growth and competition between eight generalized plant types in response to climate.Global vegetation carbon was predicted to rise from about 600 to 800 PgC (or to 650 PgC for HadCM3) while the soil carbon pool of about 1100 PgC decreased by about 8%. By the 2080s, climate change caused a partial loss of Amazonian rainforest, C4 grasslands and temperate forest in areas of southern Europe and eastern USA, but an expansion in the boreal forest area. These changes were accompanied by a decrease in net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation in many tropical areas, southern Europe and eastern USA (in response to warming and a decrease in rainfall), but an increase in NPP of boreal forests. Global NPP increased from 45 to 50 PgC y−1 in the 1990s to about 65 PgC y−1 in the 2080s (about 58 PgC y−1 for HadCM3). Global net ecosystem productivity (NEP) increased from about 1.3 PgC y−1 in the 1990s to about 3.6 PgC y−1 in the 2030s and then declined to zero by 2100 owing to a loss of carbon from declining forests in the tropics and at warm temperate latitudes — despite strengthening of the carbon sink at northern high latitudes. HadCM3 gave a more erratic temporal evolution of NEP than HadCM2, with a dramatic collapse in NEP in the 2050s. 相似文献
15.
The effect of flood experience on household mitigation—Evidence from longitudinal and insurance data
Proactive flood damage mitigation on the household level is seen as a crucial element of comprehensive flood risk management. The ongoing socio-economic development and climate change will further increase the relevance of flood risks in the future. This paper analyses the causal effect of flood experience on mitigation decisions of households. It contributes to the emerging literature on the determinants of private flood mitigation and adopts data which has rarely been used in the field: Instead of cross-sectional data, longitudinal data of household surveys before and after a major flood event in Germany is used (N > 7,400). Flood experience is elicited by three different data sources: reports of heads of households, issuance of flood alerts, and damage reports of the insurance industry. The results show a causal effect of insured flood damage on private flood mitigation and a correlation of mitigation with self-reported flood experience. The estimated effects differ for mitigation types (higher for behavioural options, such as “adapted use”) and household types (higher for better educated heads of households). 相似文献
16.
Carbon market and climate finance schemes (e.g. the CDM, REDD+ and the Green Climate Fund) are being investigated for their ability to achieve enhanced sustainability outcomes in terrestrial forests, lowland grasslands and marine ecosystems, all which store large amounts of carbon (C). To date however climate policy discourse has largely overlooked the conservation of existing C stored in mountain grasslands and shrublands. These ecosystems provide critical ecological goods and services to humanity yet are increasingly at risk from anthropogenic stressors including agricultural intensification, mining and climate change. The absence of a global estimate for these C stocks is likely to be one reason for their exclusion from climate change policy discussions, both on a political and scientific basis. This represents a missed opportunity in two respects: firstly, by conserving and restoring existing C stocks the impacts of climate change can be lessened; and secondly, carbon finance and climate finance might provide the necessary financial support to address the aforementioned stressors. In this paper we use spatial analysis and estimate there to be between 60.5 Pg C and 82.8 Pg of C contained within biomass and soils of the world's mountain grasslands and shrublands. To put this in perspective, globally tropical Savannas and grasslands, temperate forests and tropical peatlands are estimated to contain 326–330 Pg C, 159–292 Pg C and 88.6 Pg C respectively. Our review of existing empirical studies and of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) national greenhouse accounts suggests that this C is not reliably accounted for in international carbon budgets. Our estimate is the first to provide a global point of reference, useful in developing future research and in climate policy discussions. We conclude by briefly discussing how climate finance might be leveraged to support the sustainable management of these C stocks, and in so doing uphold the other important socioeconomic benefits provided to humanity. 相似文献
17.
Damaging rainfall and rain-induced flooding occur from time to time in the drought-prone Sahel savanna zone of Niger in West
Africa but official records of these events and their socioeconomic impacts do not exist. This paper utilized newspaper accounts
between 1970 and 2000 to survey and illustrate the range of these flood hazards in the Sahel. During the study interval, 53
newspaper articles reported 79 damaging rainfall and flood events in 47 different communities in the Sahel of Niger. Collectively,
these events destroyed 5,580 houses and rendered 27,289 people homeless. Cash losses and damage to infrastructure in only
three events exceeded $4 million. Sahel residents attribute these floods to five major causes including both natural and anthropogenic,
but they view the flood problem as driven primarily by land use patterns. Despite such awareness, traditional coping strategies
appear inadequate for dealing with the problems in part because of significant climatic variability. Analysis of several rainfall
measures indicates that the cumulative rainfall in the days prior to a heavy rain event is an important factor influencing
whether or not heavy rainfall results in flooding. Thus, despite some limitations, newspaper accounts of historical flooding
are largely consistent with measured climatic variables. The study demonstrates that concerted effort is needed to improve
the status of knowledge concerning flood impacts and indeed other natural and human hazards in the Sahel. 相似文献
18.
Meat production for human consumption has serious environmental implications and contributes significantly to climate change. Changing people’s food choices is an important step towards reducing human impacts on the climate. Previous research shows that self-enhancement (i.e. self-interest) and self-transcendence (i.e. altruism) values are related to meat consumption. This study examined the effectiveness of the provision of information about climate impacts of meat consumption in influencing concern about these climate impacts of meat consumption, attitudes towards eating meat and behavioural intentions in a New Zealand sample (N = 848). Further, the study examined whether framing the message to align with people’s value sets would enhance the information’s effectiveness in affecting concern, attitudes and intentions. Survey participants were randomly assigned to a no-information control group, a message targeting self-enhancement values, or a message targeting self-transcendence values. Results indicated that the information provision was associated with significantly higher levels of concern about the climate impacts of meat consumption and significantly lower intentions to eat meat, but it did not affect attitudes towards meat consumption. However, the framing of the message did affect attitudes towards meat consumption, depending on existing values. Implications of this research can be applied to future climate change communication campaigns, through the use of targeted, value-congruent information. 相似文献
19.
Joan Bech Nicolau Pineda Tomeu Rigo Montserrat Aran Jéssica Amaro Miquel Gayà Joan Arús Joan Montanyà Oscar van der Velde 《Atmospheric Research》2011,100(4):621-637
This study presents an analysis of a severe weather case that took place during the early morning of the 2nd of November 2008, when intense convective activity associated with a rapidly evolving low pressure system affected the southern coast of Catalonia (NE Spain). The synoptic framework was dominated by an upper level trough and an associated cold front extending from Gibraltar along the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula to SE France, which moved north-eastward. South easterly winds in the north of the Balearic Islands and the coast of Catalonia favoured high values of 0–3 km storm relative helicity which combined with moderate MLCAPE values and high shear favoured the conditions for organized convection. A number of multicell storms and others exhibiting supercell features, as indicated by Doppler radar observations, clustered later in a mesoscale convective system, and moved north-eastwards across Catalonia. They produced ground-level strong damaging wind gusts, an F2 tornado, hail and heavy rainfall. Total lightning activity (intra-cloud and cloud to ground flashes) was also relevant, exhibiting several classical features such as a sudden increased rate before ground level severe damage, as discussed in a companion study. Remarkable surface observations of this event include 24 h precipitation accumulations exceeding 100 mm in four different observatories and 30 minute rainfall amounts up to 40 mm which caused local flash floods. As the convective system evolved northward later that day it also affected SE France causing large hail, ground level damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. 相似文献
20.
This study incorporates observations from Array of Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography (ARGO) floats and surface drifters to identify seasonal circulation patterns at the surface, 1000 m, 1500 m, and 2000 m in the northwest Indian Ocean, and quantify velocities associated with them. A skill comparison of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis output was also performed to contribute to the understanding of the circulation dynamics in this region.Subsurface currents were quantified and validated using the ARGO float data. Surface currents were identified using surface drifter data and compared to the subsurface observations to enhance our previous understanding of surface circulations. Quantified Southwest Monsoon surface currents include the Somali Current (vmax = 179.5 cm/s), the East Arabian Current (vmax = 52.3 cm/s), and the Southwest Monsoon Current (vmax = 51.2 cm/s). Northeastward flow along the Somali coast is also observed at 1000 m (vmax = 26.1 cm/s) and 1500 m (vmax = 12.7 cm/s). Currents associated with the Great Whirl are observed at the surface (vmax = 161.4 cm/s) and at 1000 m (vmax = 16.2 cm/s). In contrast to previous studies, both ARGO and surface drifter data show the Great Whirl can form as early as the boreal Spring intermonsoon, lasting until the boreal Fall intermonsoon. The Arabian Sea exhibits eastward/southeastward flow at the surface, 1000 m, 1500 m, and 2000 m. Quantified Northeast Monsoon surface currents include the Somali Current (vmax = 97.3 cm/s), Northeast Monsoon Current (vmax = 30.0 cm/s), and the North Equatorial Current (vmax = 28.5 cm/s). Southwestward flow along the Somali coast extends as deep as 1500 m.Point-by-point vector and scalar correlations of SODA output to ARGO and surface drifter data showed that surface SODA output and surface drifter data generally produced a strong correlation attributed to surface currents strongly controlled by the monsoons, while subsurface correlations of SODA output and ARGO were mostly insignificant due to variability associated with intermonsoonal transitions. SODA output produced overall smaller velocities than both observational datasets. Assimilating ARGO velocities into the SODA reanalysis could improve subsurface velocity assimilation, especially during the boreal fall and spring when ARGO observations suggest that flow is highly variable. 相似文献