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1.
东北半干旱地区流域分布式水文模拟——以洮儿河流域为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
以东北半干旱地区典型流域-洮儿河流域为研究对象,应用SWAT模型对流域水文过程进行了模拟研究;选择流域上游子流域和中下游子流域分别进行参数敏感性分析,识别出影响模拟结果的敏感参数,研究发现部分参数敏感性存在空间变异性,分析主要原因在于气候和下垫面的空间异质性导致了流域上下游产流模式存在差异。采用1988-1997年水文气象数据进行模型率定和验证,结果表明：干流水文站月流量过程率定期Nash-Sutcliffe 效率系数平均值为0.78,验证期为0.72,相关系数都达到0.86以上,水量误差大多在20%以内,对日过程的模拟也有较高的精度;枯水年模拟结果较差,主要是因为流域降水站数量不够,难以反映降水的时空分布。对于水文、气象等资料相对缺乏的东北半干旱地区,SWAT模型的模拟结果总体令人满意,可以应用于与流域径流相关的各种模拟分析,研究成果对进一步加强洮儿河流域水资源综合管理提供了依据和手段。 相似文献
2.
水汽效率放大法广泛应用于我国一级大型土石坝水电工程和核工程的短历时可能最大暴雨计算。为了研究该方法的基本原理并更好地适用于实际工程,对该方法涉及各参数的物理含义进行了详细阐述,对极大化参数的选取和合理性分析进行了说明,并应用于金沙江流域1d PMP计算。结果表明:水汽效率放大法对降水的两个基本物理因子(水汽因子和动力因子)同时进行了放大,一般可采用该方法推求的成果作为推荐成果;推求可降水量时代表性露点的选择应在时间和地区上具有代表性;该方法中暴雨效率间接反应了设计流域空气辐合上升运动的情况,是目前动力因子中最容易计算且精度较高的方法;该方法推求的PMP成果与选取的典型暴雨量无关,只与设计流域最大可降水量、可能最大暴雨效率和降水时段有关。 相似文献
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Preparation of a generalized chart of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for the southern half of the Indian peninsula lying between lat. 8°N to 16°N has been attempted in this study. Maximum 1-day rainfall data of 70 to 80 years from 1891 for about 600 stations in the peninsular states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, South Karnataka and southern portions of Andhra Pradesh were used. In order to get appropriate values of PMP, envelope frequency factor (K m) curve based on the actual rainfall data of the region was prepared. This study has shown that one-day PMP estimates over this region range from about 25 cm to about 85 cm. The heavy rainfall received over the coastal areas of Tamil Nadu in association with the cyclonic disturbance of November 1976 was examined and it was found that this rainfall was nowhere near the PMP estimates for this area. 相似文献
5.
Extenuating the parameters using HEC-HMS hydrological model for ungauged catchment in the central Omo-Gibe Basin of Ethiopia 
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下载免费PDF全文 Demisse Habtamu Semunigus Ayalew Abebe Temesgen Ayana Melkamu Teshome Lohani Tarun Kumar 《地下水科学与工程》2021,9(4):317-325
Characteristics of ungauged catchments can be studied from the hydrological model parameters of gauged catchments. In this research, discharge prediction was carried out in ungauged catchments using HEC-HMS in the central Omo-Gibe basin. Linear regression, spatial proximity, area ratio, and sub-basin mean were amalgamated for regionalization. The regional model parameters of the gauged catchment and physical characteristics of ungauged catchments were collated together to develop the equations to predict discharge from ungauged catchments. From the sensitivity analysis, crop coefficient (CC), storage coefficient (R), constant rate (CR), and time of concentration (TC) are found to be more sensitive than others. The model efficiency was evaluated using Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) which was greater than 0.75, varying between ?10% and +10% and the coefficient of determination (R2) was approximated to be 0.8 during the calibration and validation period. The model parameters in ungauged catchments were determined using the regional model (linear regression), sub-basin mean, area ratio, and spatial proximity methods, and the discharge was simulated using the HEC-HMS model. Linear regression was used in the prediction where p-value ≤ 0.1, determination coefficient (R2) = 0.91 for crop coefficient (CC) and 0.99 for maximum deficit (MD). Constant rate (CR), maximum storage (MS), initial storage (IS), storage coefficient (R), and time of concentration (TC) were obtained. The result is that an average of 30 m3/s and 15 m3/s as the maximum monthly simulated flow for ungauged sub-catchments, i.e. Denchiya and Mansa of the main river basin . 相似文献
6.
基于台湾66个站点年最大日雨量历史资料、台湾中央气象局2009年8月8~10日莫拉克台风暴雨期间251个台湾雨量站逐时降雨资料和香港地区65个雨量站的历史逐时降雨资料,以及与香港相邻的3个广东省雨量站(西沥站、横岗站和深圳站)资料,利用分时段地形增强因子法(SDOIF),将莫拉克台风暴雨最大24h实测暴雨中的辐合雨分量分割,并将其辐合雨成分移置到香港地区,与香港地区24h平均地形增强因子相结合,估算出香港地区的可能最大降水。结果显示,莫拉克最大24h降雨量中地形的增强幅度约为45%;得出香港地区最大24h平均可能最大降水分布图,其最大中心值1230.2mm(未考虑水汽放大),与香港地区历史暴雨中心一致,均发生在大帽山附近。 相似文献
7.
设计洪水是工程水文学中的难题,靠数学化来指导频率曲线外延的成就不大,但用新近提出的古洪水概念与方法,可取得距今几千年的洪水信息,对提高洪水频率曲线稀遇部分的情度有重要意义.本文还阐述了PMP/PMF途径在“可能”与“最大”两方面的新概念和新方法. 相似文献
8.
Guleid Artan Hussein Gadain Jodie L. Smith Kwabena Asante Christina J. Bandaragoda James P. Verdin 《Natural Hazards》2007,43(2):167-185
Floods are the most common and widespread climate-related hazard on Earth. Flood forecasting can reduce the death toll associated
with floods. Satellites offer effective and economical means for calculating areal rainfall estimates in sparsely gauged regions.
However, satellite-based rainfall estimates have had limited use in flood forecasting and hydrologic stream flow modeling
because the rainfall estimates were considered to be unreliable. In this study we present the calibration and validation results
from a spatially distributed hydrologic model driven by daily satellite-based estimates of rainfall for sub-basins of the
Nile and Mekong Rivers. The results demonstrate the usefulness of remotely sensed precipitation data for hydrologic modeling
when the hydrologic model is calibrated with such data. However, the remotely sensed rainfall estimates cannot be used confidently
with hydrologic models that are calibrated with rain gauge measured rainfall, unless the model is recalibrated.
G. Artan, J. L. Smith and K. Asante – work performed under USGS contract 03CRCN0001. 相似文献
9.
Atsushi Saotome Ryunoshin YoshinakaMasahiko Osada Hiroyasu Sugiyama 《Engineering Geology》2002,64(1):1-17
Volcanic breccia is a representative heterogeneous rock. As a preliminary study for determining its mechanical properties in laboratory and field experiments, its material properties and structural features were described. Three-dimensional clast-size distribution was also estimated for the study site using the theory of stereology. With this distribution determined, a numerical simulation was performed to investigate the relationship between the volumetric proportion of clasts in a sample and the areal proportion and maximum length of clasts on a lateral surface of the sample. The following observations were made: (1) coefficients of variation for volumetric proportion are dependent on the size of the sample, and became large when the size of the sample is small; (2) samples with a small coefficient of variation can be selected at any size if a restriction is placed on the ratio, Dmax/D0, of the maximum length of clasts to the size of the sample; and (3) the volumetric proportion of clasts in each sample can be estimated from the observed areal proportions within an error range that depends on the whole volumetric proportion. 相似文献
10.
This study documents hydrological changes resulting from urbanization of the upper sub-basin of White Rock Creek watershed
in Collin and Dallas counties, Texas. The 172-km2 watershed was transformed from 87% rural in 1961 to 95% urban in 2002, following construction of the Dallas suburbs of Richardson,
Addison, Plano and Frisco. The objective of the study was to investigate changes in the storm response of White Rock Creek
in terms of peak storm flow, storm flow volume and lag time. The approach employed to compare pre- and post-urbanization hydrology
was to develop average unit hydrographs for each time period and use them to generate the creek’s storm flow response to a
set of six hypothetical precipitation events. The results suggest that substantial hydrological changes have occurred. The
average infiltration capacity of the watershed was reduced by about 60% so that storm flow was generated at lower precipitation
intensities in the post-urbanization period. Storm flow peak discharge and volume were more than doubled for a hypothetical
10-year precipitation event. Average lag time was about 49 min shorter in the post-urbanization period. Urbanization has significantly
impacted the storm response of the creek and increased the potential for flooding. It is anticipated that similar hydrological
changes will occur in other rapidly urbanizing watersheds in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metropolitan region. Watershed managers
should take likely changes in storm response into account when planning future storm water management needs. 相似文献
11.
Fluctuation of atmospheric precipitation in Europe 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Rudolf Brázdil Dr. 《GeoJournal》1992,27(3):275-291
The paper is concerned with an analysis of temporal and spatial structures of annual precipitation in Europe. Problems involving
the processing of precipitation series (homogeneity, systematic errors, areal averages) sare discussed. Long-term changes
in precipitation in Europe are described on the basis of series of areal annual sums of precipitation and their cyclic character
is analyzed. As a continuation of the paper by Lough et al. (1983) precipitations of the warmest and coldest 20-year periods
in the European part of the former USSR are compared. Expected changes in precipitation for a model of the global warming
of the Earth are discussed and estimates of precipitation in Europe for a doubling of CO2 using the GISS and GFDL models are presented. 相似文献
12.
基于1979-2015年中国大陆824个气象站点逐日降水观测资料,采用相对误差、相关系数以及探测率等指标,评估新发布的格网化降水产品Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation（MSWEP）在中国大陆区域的精度;采用改正的Mann-Kendall趋势法,对比分析MSWEP在降水量趋势分析中的可靠性。研究表明:① MSWEP对中国大陆区域降水整体上存在高估现象,而在华北区域存在低估现象;② MSWEP对微量降水和强降水事件分别存在高估和低估现象;③ MSWEP和降水资料在年和月尺度上具有较好的相关系数,在日尺度上相关系数较低;④ MSWEP和站点观测的年降水量变化趋势存在较大空间分布差异,但在春季、秋季和冬季,空间分布特征较为一致。 相似文献
13.
Homa Razmkhah Ali Mohammad AkhoundAli Fereydoun Radmanesh Bahram Saghafian 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(4):323
Lack of accuracy of rainfall-runoff simulation (RRS) remains critical for some applications. Among various sources of uncertainty, precipitation plays a particular role. Rainfall rates as the main input data of RRS are of the first factors controlling the accuracy. In addition to the depth, spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall impact the flood discharge. Most of the previous studies on RRS uncertainty have ignored rainfall spatial distribution, where in large catchments, it is necessary to be modeled explicitly. Karoon III is one most important basin of the Iran because of the Karoon III dam in the outlet. In the present work, effect of spatial correlation of rainfall on HEC-HMS (SMA) continuous RRS uncertainty is evaluated using 2variate copula (2copula). Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) approach was used to consider the rainfall spatial dependence. To reduce the computational expense, sampling efficiency and convergence for MCS, Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used. Copula functions consider wide range of marginal probability distribution functions (PDFs), eliminating limits of regular join PDFs. For this aim, two scenarios were investigated. In the first scenario, sub-basin rainfall was considered independent, and in the second scenario, 2copula was adopted to model spatial correlation of rainfall. Dimensionless rainfall depths were calculated for each sub-basin, and the PDFs were determined. The generated random dimensionless rainfalls were reweighted and multiplied by watershed’s mean rainfall value. Stochastic Climate Library was used to generate continuous daily rainfalls. Sampling from dimensionless rainfalls using LHS algorithm, 100 runs of calibrated model-simulated 100 flows for each day following MCS, and 80 % certainty bound was calculated. Results showed that considering dependence decreased 18 % of the maximum uncertainty bound width, so the methodology could be recommended for decreasing predicted runoff error. 相似文献
14.
定量反演降水及其在青藏高原东北边缘地区面雨量估算中的应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
雷达-雨量计联合校准降水结合了雷达区域覆盖和雨量计单点精度高的优势, 利用雷达进行区域降水量估计是提高雷达应用能力的重要方向之一. 通过利用在青藏高原东北边坡地区的雷达回波-降水反演关系式, 对2012年5月10日的这一地区的一次区域性强降水过程进行反演比较, 并利用平均校准法、 最优插值法和用卡尔曼滤波确定变分系数的变分-卡尔曼滤波进行空间校准. 结果表明:利用最优化法得到的本地降水反演关系式效果要明显优于其他波段或地域的固有关系式, 可以有效改变过低估计的状况; 变分-卡尔曼滤波由于考虑了雷达区域扫描的优势, 校准效果最好, 可以细致反映空间降水分布, 对降水预报、 地质灾害预警等都有重要意义.通过建立多仰角多变量的降水关系式, 并进一步对反演结果采用有效的数学校正法可能会对空间面雨量估测取得更好的效果. 相似文献
15.
基于中国自动气象站与CMORPH降水产品融合的0.1°×0.1°高分辨率逐时降水量网格数据集以及气象站点日降水的实测资料,对青藏高原面雨量的空间分布做了研究,并运用线性分析法对青藏高原季节面雨量和逐时面雨量的年际变化做了分析。结果表明：（1）0.1°×0.1°高分辨率格点降水数据能够准确地反映青藏高原面雨量的空间分布特征,东南缘的降雨量远大于西北部。格点数据与站点数据之间偏差率小于20%的站点占到站点总数（84个）的65.48%,相关系数大于0.9的站点有48个。（2）2008-2013年青藏高原总面雨量的年均值为133.42×1010 m3,夏季面雨量最大,占到全年面雨量的51.48%。四季面雨量均呈增长趋势,春、夏、秋、冬的线性倾向率分别为0.40×1010 m3·a-1、3.11×1010 m3·a-1、1.30×1010 m3·a-1和0.92×1010 m3·a-1。（3）面雨量峰值出现在19：00-20：00（北京时间,下同）,面雨量增多的时间出现在17：00-02：00。 相似文献
16.
根据中国境内2 257个气象站点1998-2013年逐日降水资料,结合流域分区,采用探测准确性、相关系数以及相对误差等指标,对热带降水测量（TRMM）降水精度和一致性进行系统评价。结果表明:① TRMM日降水准确性从东南沿海向西北内陆递减;② 气象站点年均降水日数显著大于TRMM年均降水日数;③ 西北片区以外气象站点降水量和TRMM降水量在月尺度和年尺度上均具有较好的相关关系;④ 各流域年均TRMM面降水量均高于气象站点面降水量,且TRMM面降水量相对误差雨季较小,枯季较大;⑤ 各流域TRMM面降水量与气象站点面降水量演变趋势基本一致,南方各流域年降水量均呈减少趋势,北方各流域年降水量均呈增加趋势,全国尺度上年降水量呈微弱的减少趋势。 相似文献
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18.
Ned P. Smith 《Estuaries and Coasts》1993,16(4):739-746
The flushing of Florida’s Indian River Lagoon is investigated as a response to tidal and low-frequency lagoon-shelf exchanges in the presence of freshwater gains and losses. A one-dimensional computer model uses the continuity equation to convert water-level variations into both advective transport within the lagoon and lagoon-shelf exchanges. The model also incorporates transport by longitudinal diffusion. Flushing is quantified by calculating the 50% renewal time, R50, for each of 16 segments. R50 is calculated for tidal exchanges enhanced by 0–30 cm nontidal fluctuations in coastal sea level, then for a range of rainfall rates. In both series of simulations, results suggest that in the northern sub-basin, R50 increases dramatically with distance from the inlet due to relatively weak tidal and nontidal exchanges. A 50% renewal occurs in about one tidal cycle just inside Sebastian Inlet; at the northern end of the northern sub-basin, R50 is over 230 d, and only coastal sea-level variations on the order of 30 cm and/or dry season rainfall rates decrease R50 to less than 1 yr. R50 is 1 wk or less throughout the central and southern sub-basins, where lagoon-shelf exchanges occur through two inlets. Simulations involving seasonal variations in precipitation and evaporation indicate that maximum and minimum rates of freshwater input lead minimum and maximum salinities by time periods on the order of 2–3 wk for the lagoon as a whole and in the northern sub-basin. The central and southern sub-basins respond in 1–2 wk. 相似文献
19.
Qu Wei Lu Jingxuan Song Wenlong Zhang Tingting Tan Ya&#x nan Huang Ping 《地球科学进展》2014,29(11):1262-1270
TRMM daily precipitation data were validated compared to thirteen precipitation observation station data in Irrawaddy basin, and a calibration method of TRMM 3B42 data based on water balance concept was developed. SWAT model was used to calculate water balance, and then the TRMM data calibration ratio was inferred based on it. Average slope of sub-basin was the independent variable, and calibration ration was the dependent variable for the regression analysis. The calibration ratio of sub-basins without hydrological observation stations were calculated according to the average slope, and then the TRMM precipitation were calibrated according to the ratio in the whole basin. Results showed that TRMM annual and monthly precipitation had a highly correlation with observed data, but had a bad bias. Annual precipitation of TRMM precipitation after calibration were nearly the same as observed; monthly precipitation curve were similar with observed. Daily precipitation forecast rank was improved from medium to well, and there were 2 station forecast bad, 7 forecast well and 4 forecast medium before calibration, but 6 forecast well, 2 forecast medium and 5 forecast excellent after calibration. The results proved that TRMM data precision were highly improved over different temporal scales in Irrawaddy basin through this method, data for hydrological and water resources analysis were also provided. 相似文献
20.
Syed Muhammad Zubair Younis Muhammad Majid Ahmad Ammar 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(18):404
The impacts of floods and droughts are intensified by climate change, lack of preparedness, and coordination. The average rainfall in study area is ranging from 200 to 400 mm per year. Rain gauge generally provides very accurate measurement of point rain rates and the amounts of rainfall but due to scarcity of the gauge locations provides very general information of the area on regional scale. Recognizing these practical limitations, it is essential to use remote sensing techniques for measuring the quantity of rainfall in the Middle Indus. In this research, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimation can be used as a proxy for the magnitude of rainfall estimates from classical methods (rain gauge), quantity, and its spatial distribution for Middle Indus river basin. In order to use TRMM satellite data for discharge measurement, its accuracy is determined by statistically comparing it with in situ gauged data on daily and monthly bases. The daily R 2 value (0.42) is significantly lower than monthly R 2 value (0.82), probably due to the time of summation of TRMM 3-hourly precipitation data into daily estimates. Daily TRMM data from 2003 to 2012 was used as input forcing in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model along with other input parameters. The calibration and validation results of SWAT model give R 2 = 0.72 and 0.73 and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency = 0.69 and 0.65, respectively. Daily and monthly comparison graphs are generated on the basis of model discharge output and observed data. 相似文献