共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
J. N. Okpara E. A. Afiesimama A. C. Anuforom A. Owino K. O. Ogunjobi 《Natural Hazards》2017,89(2):555-583
The Niger River basin is drought-prone, and farmers are often exposed to the vagaries of severe weather and extreme climate events of the region. Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought are important for its mitigation. With 52 years of gauged-based monthly rainfall, the study investigates the potentials of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as standard measure for meteorological drought, its characterization, early warning systems and use in weather index-based insurance. Gamma probability distribution type 2, which best fits the rainfall frequency distribution of the region, was used for the transformation of the skewed rainfall data to derive the SPI. Results showed 9, 5, 5 and 6 drought events of severe to extreme intensities occurred in the headwaters of the basin, inner delta, middle Niger, and lower Niger sub-watersheds, respectively. Their magnitudes were in the range 1–5, 2–6, 2–8 and 2–7, respectively. Spatially, results further showed that the 1970s and 1980s drought events were dominantly of moderate (SPI values ?1 to ?1.49) and severe (SPI values ?1.5 to ?1.99) intensities, respectively, with sporadic cases of severe to extreme drought intensities occurring in 1970s and extreme to exceptional intensities in the 1980s. Further investigations show that 3-month SPI indicated 85% of variance in the standardized cereal crop yield, which suites well as weather index insurance variable. The study therefore proposes SPI weather index-based insurance as a pathway forward to ameliorate the negative impacts on insured farmers in this region in terms of indemnity payouts whenever drought disaster occurs. 相似文献
2.
灾害损失率计算是农作物保险费率确定的基础。确定为农作物保险费率服务的灾害损失率需要较强的稳定性，为此我们采用多年平均损失率指标，并利用多年平均损失率进行分区。它既能反映出灾害损失率宏观分布规律，又能刻划出灾害损失率较微观的空间分布差异，使区域费率确定更加准确、合理。由于研究区域灾情信息的不完全性，依据大系统理论的递阶控制原理，我们设计了多年平均损失率的双层控制体系，使区域费率的厘定实现了稳定性和灵活性的统一。 相似文献
3.
Assessment of rice yield loss due to torrential rain: a case study of Yuhang County, Zhejiang Province, China 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
This study adopts a loss assessment and indemnity approach for rice crops at risk of flooding in Yuhang County, Zhejiang Province.
Employing a hydrological model for simulating floods and a reduction model for predicting rice yield, the relationship between
the rate of reduction in the rice yield and precipitation is discussed. We argue that the yield reduction rate can be assessed
according to the amount of precipitation and designed a weather-based indemnity index for agricultural insurance purposes
in Zhejiang Province. With geographic information system technology, the yield reduction rate and weather-based indemnity
index were refined and found to effectively reduce the shortcomings of traditional agricultural insurance, i.e., moral hazard,
large error in assessing disaster loss and high basis risk. The validity of the method was verified by the amount of rice
lost due to No. 16 typhoon Krosa in 2007, and the results show that the proposed method can well simulate the reduction rate
of rice yield according to precipitation data. 相似文献
4.
Spatiotemporal changes of global extreme temperature events (ETEs) since 1981 and the meteorological causes 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Xiao Song Zhao Zhang Yi Chen Pin Wang Ming Xiang Peijun Shi Fulu Tao 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(2):975-994
Of the various types of disasters caused by extreme climate and weather, extreme temperature events (ETEs) have led to a heightened awareness due to their increasing frequency, intensity, widespread distribution, and severe health impacts. Although many previous studies have surveyed the severe impacts of specific ETEs, few systematic studies have analyzed the temporal trends and the spatial patterns of this type of ETEs at the global scale. In the present study, disaster data from 1981 to 2010 compiled by Emergency Events Database were used to obtain a global view of the distribution of and the changes in the recorded ETEs. In addition, the daily maximum/minimum temperature data provided by National Centers for Environmental Prediction /Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 were used to explore the potential meteorological causes of these events. The results showed 2.7 and 6.4 increases in the frequencies of heat waves and cold spells per decade, respectively, since the 1980s. However, a large regional variability was found worldwide. Moreover, more than 40 % of the recorded ETEs occurred in Europe, and Asia experienced 33 and 26 % of the heat wave and cold spell events, respectively. Additionally, the global pattern for the occurrence frequency of ETEs in recent decades could be largely ascribed to the meteorological indexes: the heat stress index (HSI) and the cold stress index (CSI). The frequency of heat wave events increased from 1981 to 2010, and this trend is consistent with the increase in the HSI. However, the cold spell events did not appear to be reduced, as demonstrated by the disaster records, and this finding is inconsistent with the CSI trend. This result indicates that other factors also influence the occurrence of disaster events. 相似文献
5.
The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) is suffering from abnormal cooling of weather conditions and existence of an extreme weather phenomenon known as ice storm Alexa. The present paper investigates the weather conditions over Europe that causes this abnormal weather over the EMME through December of 2013. Daily data sets of several meteorological elements (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, sea level pressure, and geopotential height at level 500 hPa, etc.) over the northern hemisphere, including Europe and EMME of December of 2013, have been used through the present work. In addition, to that, a time cross section analysis of the daily operational data for meteorological elements (mean surface temperature, temperature and geopotential height at level 500 hPa, relative humidity, precipitation rate, and sea surface pressure) was done over the EMME for December 2013. The methodology of anomaly and correlation coefficient techniques for the data sets has been used. The results uncovered that the EMME has abnormal and very cold weather conditions due to the inference of meridional blocking persisted over Europe and the existence of the extremely negative geopotential height anomaly aloft over Eastern Europe throughout this month. 相似文献
6.
7.
Walter C. Dragani Enrique E. D’Onofrio Fernando Oreiro Guadalupe Alonso Mónica Fiore Walter Grismeyer 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(1):269-280
Meteorological tsunamis are frequently observed in different tide stations at the southeastern coast of South America. They are associated with the occurrence of atmospheric gravity waves during the passages of cold fronts over the Buenos Aires Province continental shelf. On the other hand, storm surges are also frequent in the region, and they are associated with strong and persistent southerlies, which are also frequent during cold front passages. The impact of meteorological tsunamis in coastal erosion and in the statistics of storm surge trends is discussed in this paper. For this study, fifteen meteorological tsunamis (with maximum wave heights higher than 0.20 m), seven of them simultaneous to the occurrence of storm surge events (with extreme levels higher than |±0.60 m|), are selected from April 2010 to January 2013. The impact of meteorological tsunamis in the storm erosion potential index (SEPI) is evaluated. Not significant differences are obtained between SEPI calculated with and without filtering the meteorological tsunami signal from the storm surge data series. Moreover, several experiments are carried out computing SEPI from synthetic sea level data series, but very low changes (lower than 4 %) are also obtained. It is concluded that the presence of moderate meteorological tsunamis on sea level records would not enhance this index at the Buenos Aires Province coast. On the other hand, taking into account that meteorological tsunamis can reach up the 20–30 % of the storm surge height, it was concluded that the statistics of storm surge trends (and their uncertainties) should be revised for Mar del Plata data series. 相似文献
8.
H Kruhl 《Geoforum》1973,4(2):19-38
After giving a brief historical review on the discovery of ocean wind systems, the kinds and benefits of marine weather forecasts, storm warning services, and storm flood services are explained. The activities and effects of ship-borne weather services are described. A major use of meteorological material is made in navigation, and optimum ship routing methods are generally descussed. Ice accretion may cause severe danger to ships and is a main navigational hazard. Cold ocean currents, upwelling areas, and zones of rapid changes of air temperature are fields of danger for cargo in ships. Techniques for avoiding such risks are discussed. Finally, observations at sea, the basis of all marine meteorological work, are discussed. 相似文献
9.
Cold and hot damages which are both common disasters occurring in DSER growth time in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin harm early rice. The two disasters occurrence should be deeply studied to protect the DSER yield. This study was based on meteorological data of 48 agricultural meteorological stations during 1961-2010 period and agricultural meteorological data during 1981-2010 for DSER in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. In this study, the growth time was divided into several phases according to the growth stage, including tillering stage, booting stage, flowering stage and filling stage. The disasters taking place at some stages was identified by building new judging standard and their intensity value was calculated by harm accumulated temperature calculation model. Fisher optimal division method was used to classify the disasters and H-P filter was used to consider the reduction of the yield. It was conducted to analize the disasters’ characteristics in growing season, the intensity of hazard and the weight of hazard at each stage by judging and quantifying cold and hot damage and developing hazard assessment model of disasters. All findings were displayed in maps by GIS technology. The results showed that: ①New disaster judging standard was more suitable for DSER and the hazard assessment model could reveal the disaster situation in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. ②Cold damage was severe at tillering stage while hot damage was severe at filling stage. In the view of the distribution of the decadal disaster intensity, cold damage became to be weak and hot damage became to be strong. Compared with the plains, mountainous region and hilly ground were attacked by cold damage frequently and hot damage rarely from the perspective of spatial distribution of disasters. Distinctly, plains near large areas of water were often harmed by cold damage at booting and flowering stage. ③The area of high hazard value and high disasters value at each stage were overlapped by each other roughly. Studying the hazard of the whole growth season showed that the highest hazard value was in Zhejiang province, and the next in Hubei Province. So Hu’nan and Jiangxi Provinces were quite suitable to grow DSER. ④In contrast with the hazard weight at each stage, the vulnerable phases of the whole growth time were in sequence of filling stage> tillering stage> flowering stage > booting stage. What’s more, aiming at defensing and fending off risk, some special stages in special province should be paid close attention including booting and filling stages in Hubei Province, tillering and flowering and filling stages in Hu’nan Province, tillering and filling stages in Jiangxi Province, flowering and filling stages in Zhejiang Province. The conclusion can be taken as theoretical basis for the government management of agricultural production, disaster prevention and mitigation. 相似文献
10.
Evaluation of soil loss change after Grain for Green Project in the Loss Plateau: a case study of Yulin,China 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Soil erosion is one of the serious and urgent issues in the Loss Plateau of China. Chinese government has implemented Grain for Green Project to restore the ecological environment since 1999. In order to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of erosion and sediment yield before and after Grain for Green Project in the Loss Plateau, annual soil loss of Yulin from 2000 to 2013 is estimated by Chinese Water Erosion on Hillslope Prediction Model in conjunction with Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems. This model has the characteristics of a simple algorithm and can be applied to predict erosion in the Loss Plateau. The result shows that vegetation cover increased significantly after Grain for Green Project, and the annual average value of NDVI increased from 0.20 to 0.33. The spatiotemporal variations of soil erosion are largely related to rainfall erosion distribution, slope, and land use type. The overall soil erosion categories in the south region are higher than those of the northwest. Mid slopes and valleys are the major topographic contributors to soil erosion. With the growth of slope gradient, soil erosion significantly increased. The soil loss has a decreasing tendency after Grain for Green Project. Although the rainfall of 2002 and 2013 is similar, the soil loss decreased from 5192.86 to 3598.94 t/(km2 a), decreasing by 30.33%. It is also expressed that soil loss appears a reducing trend in the same degree of slope and elevation in 2002, 2007, and 2013. Under the simulation of the maximum and the minimum rainfall, soil erosion amount in 2013 decreased by 29.16 and 30.88%. The study proved that GFG has already achieved conservation of water and soil. The results indicate that the vegetation restoration as part of the Grain for Green Project on the Loss Plateau is effective. 相似文献
11.
It is becoming easier to combine geographical data and dynamic models to provide information for problem solving and geographical cognition. However, the scale dependencies of the data, model, and process can confuse the results. This study extends traditional scale research in static geographical patterns to dynamic processes and focuses on the combined scale effect of multiscale geographical data and dynamic models. The capacity for topographical expression under the combined scale effect was investigated by taking multiscale topographical data and meteorological processes in Hong Kong as a case study. A meteorological simulation of the combined scale effect was evaluated against data from Hong Kong Observatory stations. The experiments showed that (1) a digital elevation model (DEM) using 3 arc sec data with a 1 km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model gives better topographical expression and meteorological reproduction in Hong Kong; (2) a fine-scale model is sensitive to the resolution of the DEM data, whereas a coarse-scale model is less sensitive to it; (3) better topographical expression alone does not improve weather process simulation; and (4) uncertainty arising from a scale mismatch between the DEM data and the dynamic model may account for 38 % of the variance in certain meteorological variables (e.g., temperature). This case study gives a clear explanation of the significance and implementation of scale matching for multiscale geographical data and dynamic models. 相似文献
12.
辽宁雪灾区划及降雪影响预评估 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
根据1951-2014年辽宁省各市、县降雪灾害造成的经济损失、雪灾出现的频率,多年平均灾损强度及气象灾变指数,计算各市、县的气象灾损值,并依此值作为雪灾灾度指数来进行辽宁降雪灾害区划.利用1951-2014年辽宁省58个国家级气象站降雪日数(日降雪量≥5mm)资料和辽宁省降雪灾情资料,采用统计分析、百分位数等方法研究确定不同灾害分区下不同降雪阈值与降雪影响预评估的关系.结果表明:(1)灾害重度区和灾害中度区主要位于辽宁中部城市群或经济发达区域,雪灾多年平均损失为280万元以上,损失程度较重;灾害轻度区和灾害微度区主要位于辽宁东部山区及辽宁西北部山区,雪灾多年平均损失为68万元以上,损失程度较轻;雪灾对辽宁影响最大的受灾体是公路,其次为设施农业.(2)在业务使用中,应用不同灾害分区降雪致灾阈值与受灾体损毁等级的预评估关系,采用定量降水预报自动判断生成降雪灾害预评估结果,能够客观的实现降雪落区不同、服务重点不同,对提高决策气象服务的针对性具有参考作用. 相似文献
13.
1961-2016年新疆单站不同等级冷空气过程气候特征及变化 总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0
利用新疆1961年1月-2016年12月资料完整的89个国家气象观测站的日最低气温资料,根据中国气象局2017年发布的行业标准《冷空气过程监测指标》（QX/393-2017）的单站冷空气等级,计算近56 a来新疆各单站不同等级冷空气过程的发生频次、降温幅度、持续天数,应用线性趋势、EOF分解等分析方法,对新疆各单站不同等级冷空气过程的时空分布特征进行分析。结果表明：新疆单站不同等级冷空气年平均频次和年累计天数均表现为中等强度冷空气最多、寒潮次多、强冷空气最少,空间分布都呈现为北疆多、南疆少的分布特征;中等强度冷空气和强冷空气区域平均的年平均频次和年累计天数的年际变化均呈不显著减少趋势,寒潮均呈显著减少趋势,而空间分布上不是整体呈减少趋势,甚至个别地区呈显著增加趋势;中等强度冷空气和强冷空气在秋季前期和春季后期发生较多,寒潮则在冬季发生较多;中等强度以上冷空气年累计降温呈现北疆大、南疆小的分布特征,区域平均的年累计降温呈显著减小趋势;新疆年寒潮频次和年累计降温第一模态的方差贡献率分别为33%、39%,远远大于其它模态,第一模态（即主模态）的空间分布二者均表现为整个新疆为一致的正值,说明其变化趋势在全疆具有一致性的特征,另外北疆特征值较大,南疆特征值较小,说明北疆更容易出现异常,南疆不易出现异常。 相似文献
14.
Gerhard Berz 《Natural Hazards》1994,9(3):323-332
Insurance, as a financial hedge against loss, is closely concerned with the problems presented by natural disasters. In many insurance markets, natural perils are covered to a greater or lesser extent by property insurance and various other branches of insurance. This entails making a close study of such perils in order that the premium requirements on the one hand and the loss potential on the other may be correctly estimated. To that end, insurers can draw upon extensive loss data and analyses from all parts of the world.Insurance has an appreciable influence on the behaviour of the public and of industry in the matter of preparedness. By making the right use of the tools of insurance technique, especially deductibles, the insured can be motivated to take preventive measures. After a disaster, the insurance industry gives swift financial help and has, for the most part, an efficient loss settlement organization at its disposal for the purpose. 相似文献
15.
黄河源区地表湿润指数及与气象因素的敏感性分析 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
应用Penman-Monteith模型计算了黄河源区地表潜在蒸散,分析了区域1961-2009年49 a来地表湿润指数的变化特征和趋势,并进行影响地表湿润指数的气象因素敏感性分析.结果表明:49 a来黄河源区年地表湿润指数呈减小趋势,其中20世纪60年代相对湿冷,70年代半湿冷,80年代为弱暖湿型,90年代暖干化明显.但进入21世纪初,特别是2003年以来,黄河源区降水增多,湿润指数上升,表现为暖湿型的气候特征.不同季节湿润指数变化略有不同,比较而言,49 a来地表湿润指数在冬春季呈增加趋势,夏秋季呈减小.湿润指数对降水量、日照时数和相对湿度的响应最为敏感. 相似文献
16.
1961 - 2018年河西走廊寒潮频次时空变化特征及其环流影响因素研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
寒潮是我国北方地区冬、 春、 秋季节常见气象灾害之一, 产生的危害严重影响社会经济发展和人们生产生活。河西走廊生态环境脆弱且处于寒潮影响的重要区域, 揭示河西走廊寒潮频次时空变化特征可以为农牧业防灾减灾提供参考。基于1961 - 2018年河西走廊12个气象站逐日最低气温数据, 采用数据统计和空间可视化表达方法, 分析近60 a河西走廊寒潮频次时空变化特征, 并探讨北极涛动（AO）异常与寒潮频次的响应关系。结果表明： 从时间上看, 河西走廊的寒潮主要发生在10月至4月, 其中11月、 12月、 4月为寒潮高发时期, 近60 a河西走廊寒潮频次呈现出下降的趋势, 其中在20世纪80年代出现明显的低值, 下降趋势在季节上表现为秋季>春季>冬季; 河西走廊寒潮发生频次具有显著的空间差异, 其中西部地区最多, 东部地区居中, 中部地区最少; 北极涛动（AO）强弱与河西走廊寒潮频次变化具有时空响应关系, 当AO处于负相位时, 河西走廊各气象站寒潮发生频次较多, 并且在河西走廊东部和西部表现的较为明显。 相似文献
17.
中国唐代诗人杜甫(公元712—770年)的诗中,有15首记载了公元768和769年唐代荆湘地区连续2年冬季出现的寒冷气候。公元768和769年冬季,洞庭湖及以南的潭州(今湖南长沙)地区出现降雪,公元769年早春甚至出现洞庭湖局部结冰的现象。杜诗记载的冷冬及洞庭湖结冰事件,在其他史料中未曾发现,是对史料中唐代洞庭湖地区寒冷和结冰记录的补充。公元768和769年气候寒冷事件发生在8世纪中叶以后,是公元750年之后唐代气候变冷过程中的一次重要事件。 相似文献
18.
Dongchuan City is highly threatened by debris-flow disasters originating from Shengou gully, a typical debris-flow gully along
Xiaojiang River in Yunnan Province (Kang et al. 2004). Shengou gully is studied, and a hazard assessment with numerical simulation is developed using ArcGIS 9.2 software. Debris-flow
numerical simulation is an important method for predicting debris-flow inundation regions, zoning debris-flow risks, and helping
in the design of debris-flow control works. Meanwhile, vulnerability measurement is essential for hazard and risk research.
Based on the self-organized map neural network method, we combine the six vulnerability indicators to create an integrated
debris-flow vulnerability map that depicts the vulnerability levels of Dongchuan City in Shengou Basin. Based on the risk
assessment (including hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment), we adopt the principal–agent theory and use the risk
degree of debris flows as an important index to build the insurance model and analyze the insurance premium of debris-flow
disasters in Dongchuan City. This paper discusses the model and mechanism of property insurance in debris-flow risk regions
and aims to provide technical support for insurance companies to participate in disaster prevention and reduction. 相似文献
19.
Urban hailstorms are rarely studied in detail. This work documents five urban storms in Alberta where damage has, on three occasions, set the record for Canada's most costly natural disaster. Information from newspapers, insurance companies, and disaster assistance programs was utilized to supplement meteorological records and information obtained from public surveys.The record-breaking hail swath which accompanied the 1987 Edmonton tornado was mapped using over 800 responses to an unprecedented newspaper survey. Tennis ball sized hail struck 125 km2 of the city. Record-sized hailstones for Alberta were collected. Citizens' measurements of giant hailstones were compared to laboratory measurements. The rural storms were tracked using lightning detector information and damage was mapped using crop insurance and disaster assistance claims. The tornado-bearing storm was found to have a unique track.A late-season hailstorm which struck Calgary in 1991 was mapped using homeowner insurance claims organized by postal areas. Nine out of thirty areas had claims rates exceeding 50%, mainly for shingle replacement. Experiences of claims adjustors and an informal public survey were also utilized. Rural storms were mapped using weather radar and crop losses. The radar beam was strongly attenuated when it passed through hail-bearing storms and, thus, its ability to detect large hail was compromised.Weather conditions, urban and rural damaged areas, and insurance payments were compared for all five local hailstorms. These storms were discussed within the context of the long history of Alberta hail research and current trends in technology implementation. Forecasting of these hailstorms using conventional severe weather indicators was difficult in Calgary because of that city's proximity to the mountains. Hailstorms that struck Munich, Denver, and Toowoomba (Australia) were also discussed, and the hailstones collected from the great Munich storm were compared to those collected from the Edmonton storms. 相似文献
20.
Sadeq Oleiwi Sulaiman Jalal Shiri Hamed Shiralizadeh Ozgur Kisi Zaher Mundher Yaseen 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(19):709
Establishing robust models for predicting precipitation processes can yield a significant aspect for many applications in water resource engineering and environmental prospective. In particular, understanding precipitation phenomena is crucial for managing the effects of flooding in watersheds. In this research, a regional precipitation pattern modeling was undertaken using three intelligent predictive models incorporating artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) methods. The modeling was carried out using monthly time scale precipitation information in a semi-arid environment located in Iraq. Twenty weather stations covering the entire region were used to construct the predictive models. At the initial stage, the region was divided into three climatic districts based on documented research. Initially, modeling was carried out for each district using historical information from regionally distributed meteorological stations for calibration. Subsequently, cross-station modeling was undertaken for each district using precipitation data from other districts. The study demonstrated that cross-station modeling was an effective means of predicting the spatial distribution of precipitation in watersheds with limited meteorological data. 相似文献