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1.
During the last decades of growing scientific, political and public attention to global climate change, it has become increasingly clear that the present and projected impacts from climate change, and the ability adapt to the these changes, are not evenly distributed across the globe. This paper investigates whether the need for knowledge on climate changes in the most vulnerable regions of the world is met by the supply of knowledge measured by scientific research publications from the last decade. A quantitative analysis of more than 15,000 scientific publications from 197 countries investigates the distribution of climate change research and the potential causes of this distribution. More than 13 explanatory variables representing vulnerability, geographical, demographical, economical and institutional indicators are included in the analysis. The results show that the supply of climate change knowledge is biased toward richer countries, which are more stable and less corrupt, have higher school enrolment and expenditures on research and development, emit more carbon and are less vulnerable to climate change. Similarly, the production of knowledge, analyzed by author affiliations, is skewed away from the poorer, fragile and more vulnerable regions of the world. A quantitative keywords analysis of all publications shows that different knowledge domains and research themes dominate across regions, reflecting the divergent global concerns in relation to climate change. In general, research on climate change in more developed countries tend to focus on mitigation aspects, while in developing countries issues of adaptation and human or social impacts (droughts and diseases) dominate. Based on these findings, this paper discusses the gap between the supply of and need for climate change knowledge, the potential causes and constraints behind the imbalanced distribution of knowledge, and its implications for adaptation and policymaking. 相似文献
2.
Studies on scientific production of climate change knowledge show a geographical bias against the developing and more vulnerable regions of the world. If there is limited knowledge exchange between regions, this may deepen global knowledge divides and, thus, potentially hamper adaptive capacities. Consequently, there is a need to further understand this bias, and, particularly, link it with the exchange of knowledge across borders. We use a world-wide geographical distribution of author affiliations in >15,000 scientific climate change publications to show that (1) research production mainly takes place in richer, institutionally well-developed countries with cooler climates and high climate footprints, and (2) the network of author affiliations is structured into distinct modules of countries with strong common research interests, but with little knowledge exchange between modules. These modules are determined mainly by geographical proximity, common climates, and similar political and economic characteristics. This indicates that political-economic, social and educational-scientific initiatives targeted to enhance local research production and collaborations across geographical-climate module borders may help diminish global knowledge divides. We argue that this could strengthen adaptive capacity in the most vulnerable regions of the world. 相似文献
3.
I. O. Dumanskaya 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2007,32(4):262-268
A numerical model of the drift ice concentration and thickness redistribution in the White Sea is described for the fall, winter, and spring periods. The results of the author’s testing are given. The method accuracy and efficiency are calculated by means of comparison with the multiyear mean data and the data of aircraft ice observations. 相似文献
4.
Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole and Pacific recharge on following year’s El Niño: interdecadal robustness 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Takeshi Izumo Matthieu Lengaigne Jérôme Vialard Jing-Jia Luo Toshio Yamagata Gurvan Madec 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(1-2):291-310
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can affect the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state of the following year, in addition to the well-known preconditioning by equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume (WWV), as suggested by a study based on observations over the recent satellite era (1981–2009). The present paper explores the interdecadal robustness of this result over the 1872–2008 period. To this end, we develop a robust IOD index, which well exploits sparse historical observations in the tropical Indian Ocean, and an efficient proxy of WWV interannual variations based on the temporal integral of Pacific zonal wind stress (of a historical atmospheric reanalysis). A linear regression hindcast model based on these two indices in boreal fall explains 50 % of ENSO peak variance 14 months later, with significant contributions from both the IOD and WWV over most of the historical period and a similar skill for El Niño and La Niña events. Our results further reveal that, when combined with WWV, the IOD index provides a larger ENSO hindcast skill improvement than the Indian Ocean basin-wide mode, the Indian Monsoon or ENSO itself. Based on these results, we propose a revised scheme of Indo-Pacific interactions. In this scheme, the IOD–ENSO interactions favour a biennial timescale and interact with the slower recharge-discharge cycle intrinsic to the Pacific Ocean. 相似文献
5.
Sharon E. Nicholson 《Climatic change》1999,41(1):53-71
This paper describes the fluctuations of Lakes Tanganyika and Rukwa over the last two centuries. Lake chronologies extending back to the late eighteenth century are derived from reports of European visitors, settlers and explorers and from oral accounts of the local peoples. The historical fluctuations are meshed with the modern record to provide a picture of the lakes' fluctuations until the late twentieth century. The historical fluctuations of the lakes are quite similar. The most important of these are low levels during the first half of the nineteenth century, very high stands in the last decades of the nineteenth century, and, around the turn of the century, a rapid fall to twentieth century levels. This pattern is ubiquitous throughout eastern Africa and is apparent in numerous other lakes, including Victoria, Naivasha, Stefanie, Turkana, Malawi and Chilwa. Driest periods were in the 1920s or earlier and in the 1950s. Lake Tanganyika returned to extremely high stands in the 1960s and has continued to maintain relatively high stands since that time. Lake Rukwa rose to high stands during the 1980s and maintained them for several years. An analysis of rainfall variability shows that these trends are generally explained by variations in catchment rainfall. However, the lakes' responses to rainfall variability are sometimes dissimilar because Lake Rukwa is a closed basin. Our results demonstrate the complexity of the rainfall/lake-level relationships and the need to use water balance relationships in order to interpret the lakes' historical or paleo-fluctuations in terms of rainfall. 相似文献
6.
G. Stanhill 《Climatic change》2001,48(2-3):515-524
7.
Understanding the linkages between social and ecological systems is key to developing sustainable natural resource management (NRM) institutions. Frequently, however, insufficient attention is paid to the historical development of NRM institutions. Instead, discussion largely focuses on models of economic efficiency at the expense of the cultural, historical, and ecological contexts within which institutions develop. Here we use the research program of historical ecology to explore the development, maintenance, and change of two contemporary fire management institutions in northern Australia and Colorado, USA, to demonstrate how social institutions and ecological systems change and resist change over time and how institutions interact across scales to negotiate contrasting goals and motivations. We argue that these NRM institutions are not strictly speaking evolutionary or adaptive, and that historical context is critical when evaluating how and why particular institutions and institutional relationships develop. As with ecosystems, the present characteristics of the NRM institutions are dependent on what has happened before and their efficacy can only be evaluated retrospectively. Therefore, an understanding of history is essential to questions of the desirability and feasibility of institutional change where such shifts are required from an ecological, social, or economic perspective. We further propose that institutional conflict arises from the differing goals and motives of resource management institutions at different scales. Our cases reveal that larger-scale institutions can be successful at achieving narrowly defined goals but often fall short of achieving socially desirable sustainable outcomes. Our findings support the use of narratives of community history, place, and being in considering the resilience and sustainability of social-ecological systems. We offer that historical ecology is complementary with institutional and economic approaches to the analysis of NRM institutions, and possesses a particular strength in linking ecology to the values and norms of small social groups. 相似文献
8.
J. Murray Mitchell Jr. 《Climatic change》1990,16(2):231-246
Paleoclimatic studies help us to gain valuable perspectives and insights into the nature and possible origins of present-day climatic variations that are beyond the reach of conventional historical weather data to provide. In this informal paper, the author lends some personal perspectives on the importance of paleoclimatic studies for the purpose of assessing the future of our climate, and illustrates this by focusing in particular on how tree-ring analyses may elucidate the chronology of changing risks of past and future outbreaks of major droughts in the American West. 相似文献
9.
通过对1960-2013年在越南登陆或登陆前停编后海南岛出现暴雨的秋冬季台风历史个例的分析,结果表明：秋冬季台风中有47%是南海台风,台风登陆越南或在登陆前停编时的纬度介于11.3°N-20.6°N之间,其中15.0°N-15.9°N最多（23.5%）,而19.0°N-19.9°N没有满足条件的台风;秋冬季暴雨出现的主要时段为9月下旬-10月下旬,其中10月中旬暴雨日最多（23.8%）;秋冬季暴雨落区集中在海南岛东部、中部和北部内陆地区,琼中县最多（12.7%）,西部沿海地区明显偏少;秋冬季暴雨的主要影响系统是热带低值系统（台风或低压环流）、东路或西路冷空气;低空急流和暴雨落区密切相关,暴雨区一般位于低空急流左前侧和切变线南侧;海南岛东北部暴雨偏东风低空急流位于两广南部;东中部暴雨偏东风低空急流位于两广南部至海南岛北部;西南部暴雨东南东风低空急流位于海南岛北部,同时南海存在西南风低空急流;西北部暴雨两广南部有东北东风低空急流;全岛性暴雨两广南部至南海中部为广阔的偏东风低空急流区。 相似文献
10.
The fall of the Ming dynasty in the first half of the 17th century and the Taiping Rebellion from 1851–1864 were two of the most chaotic periods in Chinese history, and each was accompanied by large-scale population collapses. The ‘Kang-Qian Golden Age’ (also known as ‘High Qing’), during which population size expanded rapidly, falls in between the two. Scholars remain divided in their opinions concerning the above alternation of population growth and decline as to whether variations in population size or climate change should be identified as the root cause. In either case, the synergistic impact of population growth and climate change upon population growth dynamics is overlooked. In the present study, we utilized high-resolution empirical data, qualitative survey, statistical comparison and time-series analysis to investigate how the two factors worked synergistically to drive population cycles in 1600–1899. To facilitate our research, we posited a set of simplified pathways for population growth in historical agrarian China. Our results confirm that the interrelation between population growth, climate change and population crises in recent Chinese history basically followed our posited pathways. The recurrences of population crises were largely determined by the combination of population growth and climate change. Our results challenge classic Malthusian/post-Malthusian interpretations and historians’ views of historical Chinese population cycles. 相似文献
11.
The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate 总被引：16，自引：5，他引：11
G. M. Flato G. J. Boer W. G. Lee N. A. McFarlane D. Ramsden M. C. Reader A. J. Weaver 《Climate Dynamics》2000,16(6):451-467
A global, three-dimensional climate model, developed by coupling the CCCma second-generation atmospheric general circulation
model (GCM2) to a version of the GFDL modular ocean model (MOM1), forms the basis for extended simulations of past, current
and projected future climate. The spin-up and coupling procedures are described, as is the resulting climate based on a 200 year
model simulation with constant atmospheric composition and external forcing. The simulated climate is systematically compared
to available observations in terms of mean climate quantities and their spatial patterns, temporal variability, and regional
behavior. Such comparison demonstrates a generally successful reproduction of the broad features of mean climate quantities,
albeit with local discrepancies. Variability is generally well-simulated over land, but somewhat underestimated in the tropical
ocean and the extratropical storm-track regions. The modelled climate state shows only small trends, indicating a reasonable
level of balance at the surface, which is achieved in part by the use of heat and freshwater flux adjustments. The control
simulation provides a basis against which to compare simulated climate change due to historical and projected greenhouse gas
and aerosol forcing as described in companion publications.
Received: 24 September 1998 / Accepted: 8 October 1999 相似文献
12.
The critical comments to the publications by the authors ofthe present paper that were given in [10] (the publications deal with the possible effects of gravity field inhomogeneities in the atmosphere and ocean) are discussed. In the authors' opinion, some remarks are groundless. At the same time, the authors agree with one of the important remarks that the results of their paper concerning studies of the ocean disturbances are to be reconsidered. 相似文献
13.
A deterministic monthly runoff model (MINRUN96)was applied to watersheds with substantially differentclimates. One watershed is in the north-central U.S.(Minnesota) and is heavily timbered. The other is inthe south-central U.S. (Oklahoma) and is mainlycovered with pastures and agricultural crops. Runoffwas simulated for past historical climate and twoprojected 2 × CO2 climate scenarios. The output ofGeneral Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to specifythe two 2 × CO2 climate scenarios. One GCM is theGoddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) model andthe other is from the Canadian Center of ClimateModelling (CCC). In the northern watershed morerunoff is projected to occur in winter under a warmerclimate and less runoff in spring. About 80%increase in fall runoff and 20% decrease in soilmoisture in June and July is projected for thesouthern watershed. When runoff simulations for the2 × CO2 climate scenarios were compared to pastrunoff, it was apparent that the change in runoffdepended on both the season and the magnitude of theprecipitation change. An increase in springprecipitation caused a significant increase in directrunoff, whereas an increase in fall precipitationcaused only a slight increase in total runoff. Alsothe runoff-precipitation relationship in the warm andseasonally dry southern watershed is very differentfrom that in the temperate and humid climate of thenorth. Therefore, runoff responses to projectedclimate change are substantially different in the tworegions. 相似文献
14.
15.
Decadal variability in the climate system from the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is one of the major sources of variability at this temporal scale that climate models must properly incorporate because of its climate impact. The current analysis of historical simulations of the twentieth century climate from models participating in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 projects assesses how these models portray the observed spatiotemporal features of the sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation anomalies associated with the AMO. A short sample of the models is analyzed in detail by using all ensembles available of the models CCSM3, GFDL-CM2.1, UKMO-HadCM3, and ECHAM5/MPI-OM from the CMIP3 project, and the models CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, UKMO-HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-LR from the CMIP5 project. The structure and evolution of the SST anomalies of the AMO have not progressed consistently from the CMIP3 to the CMIP5 models. While the characteristic period of the AMO (smoothed with a binomial filter applied fifty times) is underestimated by the three of the models, the e-folding time of the autocorrelations shows that all models underestimate the 44-year value from observations by almost 50 %. Variability of the AMO in the 10–20/70–80 year ranges is overestimated/underestimated in the models and the variability in the 10–20 year range increases in three of the models from the CMIP3 to the CMIP5 versions. Spatial variability and correlation of the AMO regressed precipitation and SST anomalies in summer and fall indicate that models are not up to the task of simulating the AMO impact on the hydroclimate over the neighboring continents. This is in spite of the fact that the spatial variability and correlations in the SST anomalies improve from CMIP3 to CMIP5 versions in two of the models. However, a multi-model mean from a sample of 14 models whose first ensemble was analyzed indicated there were no improvements in the structure of the SST anomalies of the AMO or associated regional precipitation anomalies in summer and fall from CMIP3 to CMIP5 projects. 相似文献
16.
The history of instrumental meteorological observations in Labrador/Nunatsiavut, Canada, began in August 1771 when the Unitas Fratrum, also known as the “Moravian Brethren”, established a mission among the Inuit on the Labrador coast. The Brethren named this place “Nain” after a city mentioned in the New Testament of the Bible. The missionaries included learned men, trained in the natural sciences, and in October of that same year they began to undertake instrumental meteorological observations. These observations have been continued, in one form or another, to the present day. As will be shown in this paper, the year 1771 thus marks the beginning of a long time series of meteorological observations from Labrador. The authors of this paper are currently researching the climatic history of the Labrador/Nunatsiavut region by tracing the meteorological observations of the Moravian missionaries to be found in scientific publications of the eighteenth, nineteenth and twentieth centuries. As will be demonstrated, the records of these observations in Labrador go through several stages; from being almost completely forgotten, to being published and republished in the main international meteorological journals. In this latter context, it may be said that the channels for the distribution of this knowledge are still being charted; this process involves tracking contacts between the Moravian Church and their sympathisers, as well as between the Church and contemporary scientists. This paper seeks to elucidate knowledge of these old records by placing them in the context of the research field of historical climatology and, at the same time, to honour the Moravian missionary observers for their valuable contribution to knowledge of past variations in climate. 相似文献
17.
Stanley A. Changnon 《Climatic change》2001,49(1-2):161-169
Altered incidences of thunderstorms resulting fromthe influence of large urban areas on the atmosphere can biasefforts to assess the long-term behavior of regional stormactivity. Past studies of selected cities have defined increasedthunderstorm activity downwind (generally east) of urban areas,but few have documented in-city changes in storm activity.Comparison of the sites where historical thunder records werecollected with areas with potential urban influences on stormactivity is important to identify quality records and to deletedata from questionable urban sites. An investigation of thisissue was conducted using unique, quality long records from twostations at Chicago. This study compared storm activity using40-years of data from a station in central Chicago and one on thecity's western boundary. The city site averaged 4.5 morethunderstorm days a year, an increase of 12%, than theadjacent rural site. In-city increases occurred in all fourseasons with the greatest differences in spring and summer andleast in fall, and enhanced storm activity occurred in all hoursbut was greatest in the afternoon and evening. The resultsestablished that sizable and statistically significant increasesin storm activity occurred over the central portions of Chicago. This has major implications for the selection of stations foruse in climate change assessments of storm activity. This studyrevealed that the official thunderstorm records that had beentaken within the city since 1896 were likely urban influenceduntil the station was moved to the city's western edge in 1959. The Chicago data should not be used in regional and nationalstudies of historical fluctuations of storm activity during the20th century. Results from Chicago and studies of othercities suggest that most storm enhancement occurs to thenortheast, east, and southeast of cities with populations of 1 to2 million, whereas in larger cities like New York and Chicago,storm modification also occurs well within the confines of thecity. 相似文献
18.
霰粒子参数对强对流云降水和催化影响的数值模拟研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文利用三维对流云AgI催化模式, 开展了霰粒子密度和落速参数的敏感性模拟试验, 以研究高凇附度时霰粒子参数的选取对催化模拟结果的影响。敏感性试验中对七个霰微物理过程进行了调整。分析发现改变霰落速参数和霰密度, 可以引起3小时模拟的总降水量增加4.9%。催化后改变了敏感性试验中霰落速和上升气流的配置, 并影响到霰碰并云水和冰晶的过程, 及霰融化成雨水的过程。在高凇附度云中如果只增加霰密度而没有增加相应的落速系数, 将使云中霰含量大幅增加。霰参数也影响了自然云和催化云的降水效率。过量催化使得催化云的降水效率低于自然云。增加霰密度的同时也增加霰落速系数, 将使其降水效率高于对照试验, 从而影响催化效果。在高凇附度云中采用大密度和较大下落系数, 并且利用比数浓度平均落速计算霰粒子比数浓度的下落过程, 会使催化效率从25%减少到15%, 极大地改变催化效果。所以在高凇附度的暴雨个例中, 应当采用高霰密度和相应的高霰落速, 否则减雨的催化效果将会被大幅夸大。 相似文献
19.
This paper assesses the economic impact of the expected adverse changes in the climate on crop farming in South Africa using a revised Ricardian model and data from farm household surveys, long-term climate data, major soils and runoffs. Mean annual estimates indicate that a 1% increase in temperature will lead to about US$ 80.00 increase in net crop revenue while a 1 mm/month fall in precipitation leads to US$ 2.00 fall, but with significant seasonal differences in impacts. There are also significant spatial differences and across the different farming systems. Using selected climate scenarios, the study predicts that crop net revenues are expected to fall by as much as 90% by 2100 with small-scale farmers been most affected. Policies therefore need to be fine-tuned and more focused to take advantage of the relative benefits across seasons, farming systems and spatially, and by so doing climate change may be beneficial rather than harmful. 相似文献
20.
N. Elguindi A. Grundstein S. Bernardes U. Turuncoglu J. Feddema 《Climatic change》2014,122(4):523-538
A modified Thornthwaite Climate Classification is applied to a 32-member ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs in order to 1) evaluate model performance in the historical climate and 2) assess projected climate change at the end of the 21 s t century following two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This classification scheme differs from the well-known Köppen approach as it uses potential evapotranspiration for thermal conditions, a moisture index for moisture conditions, and has even intervals between climate classes. The multi-model ensemble (MME) reproduces the main spatial features of the global climate reasonably well, however, in many regions the climate types are too moist. Extreme climate types, such as those found in polar and desert regions, as well as the cool- and cold-wet types of eastern North America and the warm and cool-moist types found in the southern U.S., eastern South America, central Africa and Europe are reproduced best by the MME. In contrast, the cold-dry and cold-semiarid climate types characterizing much of the high northern latitudes and the warm-wet type found in parts of Indonesia and southeast Asia are poorly represented by the MME. Regionally, most models exhibit the same sign in moisture and thermal biases, varying only in magnitude. Substantial changes in climate types are projected in both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Area coverage of torrid climate types expands by 11 % and 19 % in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections, respectively. Furthermore, a large portion of these areas in the tropics will experience thermal conditions which exceed the range of historical values and fall into a novel super torrid climate class. The greatest growth in moisture types in climate zones is among those with dry climates (moisture index values < 0) with increased areas of more than 8 % projected by the RCP8.5 MME. 相似文献