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1.
Various circulatory mechanisms within the mesoscale range of tidal flows in Eastern Long Island Sound (LIS) are investigated. Two 13-day time series of current measurements were obtained using three moorings arranged in the form of a triangle. Each mooring contains a single Aanderaa current meter located at a depth of 18 to 20 m.Statistical analysis provides evidence of residual circulation effects of topographic origin in the average flow field. The relative importance and periods of orderly residual patterns and turbulent motions are examined using kinetic energy spectra for the longitudinal and transverse components of the flow. The analyses reveal residual oscillations having nearly the same time scales for all moorings and horizontal turbulent eddies which display a diversity of temporal scales ranging from 0.6 to 2.5 h. Within the high-frequency band of temporal scales the computed spectral curves for longitudinal components generally follow Kolmogorov's ‘ ?5/3 law’, while the spectra of transverse components have a slope of approximately ?1.A computational technique is described to calculate horizontal eddy coefficients in various directions using the mixing length hypothesis. The coefficients developed using this technique are used to investigate various oscillatory mechanisms in the tidal flows.  相似文献   

2.
This paper studies the coherent modes of multi‐scale variability of precipitation over the headwater catchments in the Pearl River basin in South China. Long‐term (1952–2000) daily precipitation data spatially averaged for 16 catchments in the basin are studied. Wavelet transform analysis is performed to capture the fluctuation embedded in the time series at different temporal timescales ranging from 6 days to 8.4 years. The catchment clusters of the coherent modes are delineated using the principal component analysis on the wavelet spectra of precipitation. The results suggest that as much as 98% of the precipitation variability is explained by only two coherent modes: high small‐scale mode and high seasonal mode. The results also indicate that a large majority of the catchments (i.e., 15 out of 16) exhibit consistent mode feature on multi‐scale variability throughout three sub‐periods studied (1952–1968, 1969–1984, and 1985–2000). The underlying effects of the coherent modes on the regional flood and drought tendency are also discussed.  相似文献   

3.
This study proposed a methodology using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and multivariate time series model for the analysis of drought both in time and space. The methodology proposed was then applied to evaluate the vulnerability of agricultural drought of major river basins in Korea. First, the three-month SPI data from 59 rain gauge stations over the Korean Peninsula were analyzed by deriving and spatially characterizing the EOFs. The shapes of major estimated EOFs were found to well reflect the observed spatial pattern of droughts. Second, the coefficient time series of estimated EOFs were then fitted by a multivariate time series model to generate the SPI data for 10,000 years, which were used to derive the annual maxima series of areal average drought severity over the Korean Peninsula. These annual maxima series were then analyzed to determine the mean drought severity for given return periods. Four typical spatial patterns of drought severity could also be selected for those return periods considered. This result shows that the southern part of the Korean Peninsula is most vulnerable to drought than the other parts. Finally, the agricultural drought vulnerability was evaluated by considering the potential water supply from dams. In an ideal case, when all the maximum dam storage was assumed to be assigned to agriculture, all river basins in Korea were found to have the potential to overcome a 30-year drought. However, under more realistic conditions considering average dam storage and water allocation priorities, most of the river basins could not overcome a 30-year drought.  相似文献   

4.
WANFIS, a conjunction model of discreet wavelet transform (DWT) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was developed for forecasting the current-day flow in a river when only available data are historical flows. Discreet wavelet transform decomposed the observed flow time series (OFTS) into wavelet components which captured useful information on three resolution levels. A smoothened flow time series (SFTS) was formed by filtering out the noise wavelet components and recombining the effective wavelet components. WANFIS model is essentially an ANFIS model with SFTS hydrograph as the input, while ANFIS and autoregression (AR) models, developed for comparison purpose, use OFTS hydrograph as input. For performance evaluation, the developed models were utilized for predicting daily monsoon flows for the Gandak River in Bihar state of India. During monsoon (June–October), this river carries large flows making the entire North Bihar unsafe for habitation or cultivation. Based on various performance indices, it was concluded that WANFIS models simulate the monsoon flows in the Gandak more reliably than ANFIS and AR models. The best performing WANFIS model, with four previous days’ flows as input, predicted the current-day Gandak flows with 80.7% accuracy while ANFIS and AR models predicted it with only 71.8 and 51.2% accuracies.  相似文献   

5.
Hydrographic variability on the Alabama shelf just outside of Mobile Bay, a major source of river discharge into the Gulf of Mexico, is examined using time series of water column temperature and surface and bottom salinity from a mooring site with a depth of 20 m in conjunction with a series of across-shelf CTD surveys. The time series data show variability in a range of time scales. The density variation is affected by both salinity and temperature, with its relatively strong annual signal mostly determined by temperature and its year to year variability mostly determined by salinity. Seasonal mean structures of temperature, salinity, and density show a transition from estuarine to shelf conditions in which three regions with distinct seasonal characteristics in their horizontal and vertical gradient structures are identified. Correlation analysis with the available forcing functions demonstrates the influence of Mobile Bay on the variability at the mooring site. At low frequencies, river discharge from Mobile Bay has a varying influence on salinity, which is absent during the periods with unusually low discharge. At shorter synoptic time scales, both the estuarine response to the across-shelf wind stress and the shelf response to the along-shelf wind stress are significantly correlated with temperature/salinity variability: the former becoming important for the surface layer during winter whereas the latter for the bottom layer during both winter and summer. These forcing functions are important players in determining the estuarine-shelf exchange, which in turn is found to contribute to the shelf hydrographic structure.  相似文献   

6.
Observations of surface velocity data from August 2002 to February 2004 were collected by a series of four long-range high-frequency (HF) radars along the coast of New Jersey. The shelf observations of the central Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) were compared to historical observations of surface flow characteristics in the area. The time-averaged spatial mean velocity of 4 cm/s in the down-shelf along-shelf direction and 3 cm/s in the offshore across-shelf direction compared very well to historical surface measurements in the study region. However, as the spatial resolution of the data set revealed, this simple measure masked significant spatial variations in the overall and seasonal mean flow structures. Three regions – the south bank of the Hudson Shelf Valley, the southern New Jersey inner shelf (LEO-15) region, and the region offshore of the Delaware Bay mouth (southwest corner) – had mean flows that favor offshore transport of surface water. In terms of temporal variability, maps of the principle axes showed that the across-shelf (minor) axis contribution was not insignificant in the surface layer ranging from 0.3 to 0.9 of along-shelf (major) axis and that there were seasonal differences in orientation and ellipticity. Analysis of the spatial changes in the temporal and spatial correlation scales over the shelf showed that shelf position, in addition to site separation, contributed to the differences in these properties. Furthermore, observations over the Hudson Shelf Valley region suggested that this was a region of transition in which the orientation of along- and across-shelf components begin to change.  相似文献   

7.
Quilotoa volcano, an example of young dacitic volcanism in a lake-filled caldera, is found at the southwest end of the Ecuador's volcanic front. It has had a long series of powerful plinian eruptions of moderate to large size (VEI = 4–6), at repetitive intervals of roughly 10–15 thousand years. At least eight eruptive cycles (labeled Q-I to Q-VIII with increasing age) over the past 200 ka are recognized, often beginning with a phreatomagmatic onset and followed by a pumice-rich lapilli fall, and then a sequence of pumice, crystal, and lithic-rich deposits belonging to surges and ash flows. These unwelded pyroclastic flows left veneers on hillsides as well as very thick accumulations in the surrounding valleys, the farthest ash flow having traveled about 17 km down the Toachi valley. The bulk volumes of the youngest flow deposits are on the order of 5 km3, but that of Q-I's 800 yr BP ash-fall unit is about 18 km3. In the last two eruption cycles water has had a more important role.  相似文献   

8.
Long-term historical records of rainfall (P), runoff (Q) and other climatic factors were used to investigate hydrological variability and trends in the Volta River Basin over the period 1901-2002. Potential (Ep) and actual evaporation (E), rainfall variability index (δ), Budyko’s aridity index (IA), evaporation ratio (CE) and runoff ratio (CQ) were estimated from the available hydroclimatological records. Mann-Kendall trend analysis and non-parametric Sen’s slope estimates were performed on the respective time series variables to detect monotonic trend direction and magnitude of change over time.Rainfall variability index showed that 1968 was the wettest year (δ = +1.75) while 1983 was the driest (δ = −3.03), with the last three decades being drier than any other comparable period in the hydrological history of the Volta. An increase of 0.2 mm/yr2 (P < 0.05) was observed in Ep for the 1901-1969 sub-series while an increased of 1.8 mm/yr2 (P < 0.01) was recorded since 1970. Rainfall increased at the rate of 0.7 mm/yr2 or 49 mm/yr between 1901 and 1969, whereas a decrease of 0.2 mm/yr2 (6 mm/yr) was estimated for 1970-2002 sub-series. Runoff increased significantly at the rate of 0.8 mm/yr (23 mm/yr) since 1970. Runoff before dam construction was higher (87.5 mm/yr) and more varied (CV = 41.5%) than the post-dam period with value of 73.5 mm/yr (CV = 23.9%). A 10% relative decrease in P resulted in a 16% decrease in Q between 1936 and 1998. Since 1970, all the months showed increasing runoff trends with significant slopes (P < 0.05) in 9 out of the 12 months. Possible causes, such as climate change and land cover change, on the detected changes in hydroclimatology are briefly discussed.  相似文献   

9.
High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are used to evaluate the sensitivity of flood and flash flood simulations to spatial aggregation of rainfall and soil properties at catchment scales ranging from 75 to 983 km2. Hydrologic modeling is based on a Hortonian infiltration model and a network-based representation of hillslope and channel flow. The investigation focuses on three extreme flood and flash flood events occurred on the Sesia river basin, North Western Italy, which are analysed by using four aggregation lengths ranging from 1 to 16 km. The influence of rainfall spatial aggregation is examined by using the flow distance as a spatial coordinate, hence emphasising the role of river network in the averaging of space–time rainfall. The effects of reduced and distorted rainfall spatial variability on peak discharge have been found particularly severe for the flash flood events, with peak errors up to 35% for rainfall aggregation of 16 km and at 983 km2 catchment size. Effects are particularly remarkable when significant structured rainfall variability combines with relatively important infiltration volumes due to dry initial conditions, as this emphasises the non-linear character of the rainfall–runoff relationship. In general, these results confirm that the correct estimate of rainfall volume is not enough for the accurate reproduction of flash flood events characterised by large and structured rainfall spatial variability, even at catchment scales around 250 km2. However, accurate rainfall volume estimation may suffice for less spatially variable flood events. Increasing the soil properties aggregation length exerts similar effects on peak discharge errors as increasing the rainfall aggregation length, for the cases considered here and after rescaling to preserve the rainfall volume. Moreover, peak discharge errors are roughly proportional to runoff volume errors, which indicates that the shape of the flood wave is influenced in a limited way by modifying the detail of the soil property spatial representation. Conversely, rainfall aggregation may exert a pronounced influence on the discharge peak by reshaping the spatial organisation of the runoff volumes and without a comparable impact on the runoff volumes.  相似文献   

10.
The environment is impacted by natural and anthropogenic disturbances that occur at different spatial and temporal scales, and that lead to major changes and even disequilibria when exceeding the resiliency capacities of the ecosystem. With an annual mean flow of 1700 m3 s−1, the Rhône River is the largest of the western Mediterranean basin. Its annual solid discharges vary between 2 and 20 Mt, with flood events responsible for more than 70% of these amounts.  相似文献   

11.
The variability and scales of the sea surface structure of the northern Ionian Sea from January 1993 to December 2007 were studied by means of altimeter remotely-sensed weekly Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) objective maps. Variability in the sea surface structure was addressed by means of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and, assuming an exponential correlation model, scales of the SLA field were quantified as e-folding distances of the SLA autocorrelation function. The variability in the sea surface structure, described by the first three EOFs, which cumulatively explain 60.3% of the data set variance, is characterized by a large-scale structure with variability on a time scale of ∼10-13 years and, on shorter scales, an eddy system with variability on an annual scale. The variability in the large-scale structure describes an overturning of the SLA field, which took place in 1997, and determines a reversal of the geostrophic upper-layer circulation. As the large-scale circulation transition takes place, time-dependent spectral analysis of EOF coefficients shows a redistribution of the spectral energy from inter-annual to semi-annual and monthly components. Spatial scales display variability on an annual and inter-annual time scale. On the annual time scale, variability in spatial scales is characterized by longer values in summer-fall and shorter in winter-spring. Inter-annual variability in spatial scales is demonstrated by a remarkable drop in the values during fall in the period 1998-2000. We propose an explanation of the variability in horizontal scales in terms of the redistribution of water masses and related modifications of the vertical structure of the water column associated with different regimes of the basin-scale circulation.  相似文献   

12.
Measurements of the hydroxyl rotational temperatures at about 87 km altitude above Wuppertal (51.3°N, 7.2°E), Germany, are analysed. The time series covers the time interval from 1987 until 2005 and consists of more than 4000 night mean temperature data. Seasonal and longer-term trends are removed from the data set and OH* temperature fluctuations on temporal scales of about 3–40 days are derived. Various spectral analysis techniques (harmonic analysis, maximum entropy method and wavelet transform) are applied. Can – due to the Sun's rotation – the irregular pattern of sunspots on the solar disc lead to OH* temperature fluctuations? Pronounced spectral components in the OH* temperature fluctuations around a period from 27 to 31 days are frequently observed. We tentatively attribute these signatures to the differential rotation of the Sun: Sun's equatorial regions rotate faster (taking only about 27 days) than the polar regions. Sunspots occur at heliographic latitudes at about ±40°, which correspond to a rotation rate of about 27–31 days. The OH* temperature fluctuations within this period range show a long-term modulation of 11 years. Thus, tracking the spectral intensity of the 27- to 31-day component should allow the indirect monitoring of the solar sunspot cycle.  相似文献   

13.
Metapelites, clay-rich sandstones and volcanics from Cambrian, Ordovician and Lower Devonian strata of the western Rhenish Massif underwent a complex regional Variscan tectono-thermal evolution, as shown by mineralogical and K–Ar isotopic analyses of the illite to mica components from three NW-SE transects. The metamorphic degree extended from an anchimetamorphic to an epimetamorphic intensity during two major episodes of illite crystallization at 328 ± 6 and 282 ± 12 Ma. A further late orogenic or post-orogenic extensional activity could also be detected, but not precisely, around 270 Ma, probably recorded by the precipitation of illite in new or reactivated extensional faults with upward moving heat flows.  相似文献   

14.
We examine here three sets of recently published data: (1) Updated Indian Rainfall (IRF) time series of the entire country covering the time span of 1826–1994, (2) coral growth rate time series for a period of 42 years spanning 1948–1990 from the Arabian Sea, and (iii) NINO3 temperature records to investigate the signature of ENSO response of the Indian monsoon. Multiple spectral techniques (e.g., multi-taper method (MTM), maximum entropy method (MEM), wavelet and cross spectra) are used to identify the coherent cyclic and nonstationary modes in these records. MTM analysis of IRF time series resolves statistically significant variability (>90% C.I) (i) at multi-decadal (66–70 years) scales related to the well-known global temperature variability of internal atmospheric-ocean origin, (ii) relatively weak signals at 13 and 22 years (solar cycles) and (iii) the 2.5 to 7.5-year cycles associated with the ENSO frequency band. The MTM spectra of the coral growth rate record also reveal statistically significant periodicities (>90% C.I.) within 1.8–4.2 ENSO frequency band, and a relatively weak signal at 12.8 years. MEM analysis confirms the stability of above spectral peaks. Wavelet spectral analyses of the above time series reveal nonstationary localized modes of ENSO evolution corresponding to 2–7 years and higher order terms. Although matching periodicities are present in these records, cross-spectral analysis of IRF and NINO3 temperature records exhibits significant coherency (>80% CI) only at periods 5.4 years and 2.7 years, suggesting the significant role of ENSO dynamics in organizing the subtle Indian monsoon at these frequencies. These results may provide significant implication for the modeling of Indian monsoon.  相似文献   

15.
Satellite ocean color and surface salinity data are used to characterize the space–time variability of the Río de la Plata plume. River outflow and satellite wind data are also used to assess their combined effect on the plume spreading over the Southwestern South Atlantic continental shelf. Over the continental shelf satellite-derived surface chlorophyll-a (CSAT) estimated by the OC4v4 SeaWiFS retrieval algorithm is a good indicator of surface salinity. The log (CSAT) distribution over the shelf presents three distinct modes, each associated to: Subantarctic Shelf Water, Subtropical Shelf Water and Plata Plume water. The log (CSAT) 0.4–0.8 range is associated with a sharp surface salinity transition across the offshore edge of the Plata plume from 28.5 to 32.5. Waters of surface salinity <31, derived from mixtures of Plata waters with continental shelf waters, are associated to log (CSAT)>0.5. In austral winter CSAT maxima extend northeastward from the Plata estuary beyond 30°S. In summer the high CSAT waters along the southern Brazil shelf retreat to 32°S and extend south of the estuary to about 37.5°S, only exceeding this latitude during extraordinary events. The seasonal CSAT variations northeast of the estuary are primarily controlled by reversals of the along-shore wind stress and surface currents. Along-shore wind stress and CSAT variations in the inner and mid-shelves are in phase north of the estuary and 180° out of phase south of the estuary. At interannual time scales northernmost Plata plume penetrations in winter (∼1200 km from the estuary) are associated with more intense and persistent northeastward wind stress, which in the period 2000–2003, prevailed over the shelf south of 26°S. In contrast, in winter 1999, 2004 and 2005, characterized by weaker northeastward wind stress, the plume only reached between 650 and 900 km. Intense southwestward plume extensions beyond 38°S are dominated by interannual time scales and appear to be related to the magnitude of the river outflow. The plume response to large river outflow fluctuations observed at interannual time scales is moderate, except offshore from the estuary mouth, where outflow variations lead CSAT variations by about 2 months.  相似文献   

16.
Seasonal changes in water quality were measured in samples taken at various distances from shallow water across mudflat to mangroves during flood period and from mangroves across mudflat to shallow water during ebb period in a subtropical mangrove estuary (Zhangjiang Estuary, Fujian, China). The TN (total dissolved nitrogen), TP (total dissolved phosphorus), COD (chemical oxygen demand), and DOC (dissolved organic carbon) contents during the flood period were significantly higher than those during the ebb period. In contrast, the opposite was true for the POC (particulate organic carbon) content and transparency. The mangroves at Zhangjiang Estuary may trap nutrients at rates of 90.5 g N/m2/yr, 2.2 g TP/m2/yr, and 13.7 g C/m2/yr in the form of DOC, and export POC at a rate of 81.8 g/m2/yr. Our results support the hypothesis that the maintenance of estuarine water quality by mangroves occurs during flood periods.  相似文献   

17.
A series of pristine block-and-ash flow deposits from the May–June 2006 eruption of Merapi represent an exceptional record of small-volume pyroclastic flows generated by gravitational lava-dome collapses over a period of about two months. The deposits form nine overlapping lobes reaching ~ 7 km from the summit in the Gendol River valley on the volcano's southern flank, which were produced by successive flows generated during and after the major dome-collapse event on June 14. Both, single pulse (post-June 14 events) and multiple-pulse pyroclastic flows generated by sustained dome collapses on June 14 are recognised and three types of deposits, spread over an area of 4.7 km², are distinguished, totalling 13.3 × 106 m3: (1) valley-confined basal avalanche deposits (11.7 × 106 m3) in the Gendol River valley, (2) overbank pyroclastic-flow and associated surge deposits (1.4 × 106 m3), where parts of the basal avalanche spread laterally onto interfluves and were subsequently channeled into the surrounding river valleys and (3) dilute ash-cloud surge deposits (0.2 × 106 m3) along valley margins. Variations in the distribution, surface morphology and lithology of the deposits are related to the source materials involved in individual pyroclastic-flow-forming events and varying modes of transport and deposition of the different flows. Inferred flow velocities of the largest block-and-ash flows generated on June 14 vary from 43.8–13.5 m/s for the basal avalanche and from 62.6–24.2 m/s for the ash-cloud surge. The minimum temperatures range from 400 °C for the basal avalanche to 165 °C for the overlying ash cloud. Due to the potential of being re-channeled into adjacent river valleys and flowing laterally away from the main river channel, the overbank pyroclastic flows are considered the most hazardous part of the block-and-ash flow system. The conditions that lead to their development during flow transport and deposition must be taken into account when assessing future pyroclastic flow hazards at Merapi and similar volcanoes elsewhere.  相似文献   

18.
This study applied sample entropy (SampEn) to rainfall and runoff time series to investigate the complexity of different temporal scales. Rainfall and runoff time series with intervals of 1, 10, 30, 90, and 365 days for the Wu-Tu upstream watershed were used. Thereafter, SampEn was computed for the five rainfall and runoff time series. The results show that for the various temporal scales, comparisons of the complexity between the rainfall and runoff time series based on the SampEn are inconsistent. Calculating the dynamic SampEn further elucidated variations of the complexity in the rainfall and runoff time series. In addition, the results show that SampEn measures of the rainfall and runoff time series are typically higher than the approximate entropy measures of the rainfall and runoff time series for a specific temporal scale. The complexity increases when the sample size increases for a specific temporal scale. Furthermore, temporal scales with low complexity and high predictability are obtained from the variations of SampEn for the rainfall and runoff time series with different temporal scales, thereby providing a reference for determining the appropriate temporal scale for rainfall and runoff time series forecasting.  相似文献   

19.
The timing and petrogenesis of mid-Miocene flood basalt volcanism in the northwest United States has been extensively addressed, yet the chemical characteristics and temporal details of the Steens Basalt, exposed on the Oregon Plateau, are poorly defined. Steens Basalt volcanism has generally been accepted to have occurred at ∼ 16.6 Ma, coeval and/or just prior to the onset of Columbia River Basalt Group volcanism to the north. New major and trace element analyses and nine 40Ar/39Ar ages ranging from 15.51 ± 0.28 to 16.58 ± 0.18 Ma were obtained on Oregon Plateau flood basalt lava flows from stratigraphic sections in close proximity to Steens Mountain. Additionally, new 40Ar/39Ar ages were obtained on the uppermost and thirty-first lava flow down from the top of the ∼ 1 km section of Steens Basalt exposed at Steens Mountain and yield eruption ages of 16.59 ± 0.10 and 16.55 ±0.10 Ma, respectively. Field relations between these basalt sections suggest that multiple eruptive centers were present in the vicinity of Steens Mountain.  相似文献   

20.
Dye dispersion in the surf zone: Measurements and simple models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
To examine the spatial and temporal effect of low-volume land-based runoff on beach contamination, discrete batches of dye were released at the shoreline at three beaches in Santa Monica Bay in 2000 (Malibu Creek, Santa Monica Canyon and Pico–Kenter drain). Dye concentration was measured at the shoreline 25, 50 and 100 m alongshore from the dye release point for up to 40 min after dye release. The shoreline concentration time series are characterized either by approximately exponential decay in concentration after passage of the dye patch maximum concentration or by persistent low concentration up to 30 min after passage of the initial dye patch front. In the absence of detailed measurements of physical conditions, several simple advection–diffusion models are used to simulate shoreline concentration time series for an idealized surf zone in order to probe the roles of alongshore current shear and rip currents in producing the observed characteristics in dye concentration time series. Favorable qualitative and quantitative comparison of measured and simulated time series suggest alongshore current shear and rip currents play key roles in generating the observed characteristics of nearshore dye patch dispersion. The models demonstrate the potential effects of these flow features on the extent and duration of beach contamination owing to a continuous contamination source.  相似文献   

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