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1.
2019年8月7日IPCC《气候变化与土地特别报告》决策者摘要获得通过,报告涉及对基于土地应对气候变化不同措施的评估,取得一些新的认知,包括定量评估基于土地的40种综合措施对提高气候变化减缓和适应能力、防治荒漠化和土地退化、增强粮食安全、保护生物多样性和水资源及促进可持续发展的效益,提出在防治荒漠化和土地退化及保障粮食安全过程中提高气候变化适应和减缓能力的措施,评估了实施不同措施的风险、限制、障碍和保障政策等。在措施的分类、气候变化适应的主体对象,以及风险和政策分析等方面还存在一些不足。评估报告结论将对我国建立基于土地的应对气候变化的对策,促进把应对气候变化与防治荒漠化和土地退化、保护生态环境与增强粮食安全工作结合,制定相关政策等方面都具有重要的启示意义。 相似文献
2.
Adapting to climate change in The Netherlands: an inventory of climate adaptation options and ranking of alternatives 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
K. de Bruin R. B. Dellink A. Ruijs L. Bolwidt A. van Buuren J. Graveland R. S. de Groot P. J. Kuikman S. Reinhard R. P. Roetter V. C. Tassone A. Verhagen E. C. van Ierland 《Climatic change》2009,95(1-2):23-45
In many countries around the world impacts of climate change are assessed and adaptation options identified. We describe an approach for a qualitative and quantitative assessment of adaptation options to respond to climate change in the Netherlands. The study introduces an inventory and ranking of adaptation options based on stakeholder analysis and expert judgement, and presents some estimates of incremental costs and benefits. The qualitative assessment focuses on ranking and prioritisation of adaptation options. Options are selected and identified and discussed by stakeholders on the basis of a sectoral approach, and assessed with respect to their importance, urgency and other characteristics by experts. The preliminary quantitative assessment identifies incremental costs and benefits of adaptation options. Priority ranking based on a weighted sum of criteria reveals that in the Netherlands integrated nature and water management and risk based policies rank high, followed by policies aiming at ‘climate proof’ housing and infrastructure. 相似文献
3.
气候变化对跨境水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
气候变化增加了国际河流冲突的可能性,加强跨境水资源适应性管理是流域国可持续发展的必然选择。梳理了适应性相关研究的国内外最新进展,认识到适应性管理的关键问题是要发展一套科学评估未来气候变化影响及适应性策略的程序。通过论述气候变化下跨境水资源的适应性评估与管理框架,提出一个气候变化影响决策评估工具,包括信息收集、需求分析、对策分析、综合评估以及实施与调控5个阶段。该项研究将适应性管理与气候变化、定量化脆弱性及适应能力关联评价、成本效益分析、多目标优化决策和动态调控等有机结合,为从跨界层面制定具有针对性的适应性管理对策提供了思路与方法,有利于促进国际河流流域可持续发展。 相似文献
4.
An integrated process involving participatory and modelling approaches for prioritizing and evaluating climate change adaptation options for the Kangsabati reservoir catchment is presented here. We assess the potential effects of climate change on water resources and evaluate the ability of stakeholder prioritized adaptation options to address adaptation requirements using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model. Two adaptation options, check dams and increasing forest cover, are prioritized using pair-wise comparison and scenario analysis. Future streamflow projections are generated for the mid-21st century period (2021–2050) using four high resolution (~25 km) Regional Climate Models and their ensemble mean for SRES A1B scenario. WEAP simulations indicate that, compared to a base scenario without adaptation, both adaptation options reduce streamflow. In comparison to check dams, increasing forest cover shows greater ability to address adaptation requirements as demonstrated by the temporal pattern and magnitude of streamflow reduction. Additionally, over the 30 year period, effectiveness of check dams in reducing streamflow decreases by up to 40 %, while that of forest cover increases by up to 47 %. Our study highlights the merits of a comparative assessment of adaptation options and we conclude that a combined approach involving stakeholders, scenario analysis, modelling techniques and multi-model projections may support climate change adaptation decision-making in the face of uncertainty. 相似文献
5.
There is growing recognition of the importance of ecosystem-based approaches for adaptation to climate change—it is a cost-effective measure that has multiple benefits and can overcome many of the drawbacks of more common engineering adaptation options. Viet Nam has a rich biodiversity and is also one of the most vulnerable countries impacted by climate change. Climate change policies have been adopted at national and local levels as well as by sector, making Viet Nam one of the nations to most systematically fulfill their obligation under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Consequently, we have used Viet Nam as a case study, to assess the integration of ecosystem-based approach to adaptation to climate change. We found that ecosystem-based adaptation is being implemented in some projects but, overall, is inadequately considered by Viet Nam’s climate change policies. Instead, policies predominantly rename infrastructure projects as climate change adaptation and focus on hard solutions for disaster reduction, rather than responding to long-term climate change through ecosystem-based adaptation. Moreover, ecosystem-based adaptation projects have focused on only a few relevant types of ecosystems. Viet Nam should revise its existing climate change policies and sectoral strategies to integrate ecosystem-based adaptation across different scales of governance. As other nations develop adaptation policies at different scales, the lesson from Viet Nam is that engineering measures need to be balanced with ecosystem-based adaptation for more affordable and effective responses to climate change. 相似文献
6.
适应举措对降低人类和生态系统的气候变化风险有着积极的影响。IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第二工作组（WGII）报告全面评估了适应的可行性和有效性,深入评估了适应局限性和不良适应。报告认为,个人、地方、区域和国家各级的适应行动都在增加,但是在做决策时需考虑不良适应的风险。报告从经济、技术、制度、社会、环境和地球物理这6个维度,对23个适应措施的可行性进行了评估;这些适应措施分布在陆地、海洋与生态系统,城乡与基础设施系统,能源系统以及跨部门等四大系统,其中,基于森林的适应、具有恢复力的电力系统、能源可靠性等适应措施具有高信度的高可行性。适应措施的可行性和有效性会随着气候变暖的增加而降低,需要采用多种措施来降低未来气候变化风险。 相似文献
7.
Nicholas P. Webb Christopher J. Stokes Nadine A. Marshall 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):1164-1177
This paper demonstrates how biophysical and socio-economic assessments of adaptation options can be integrated to test the effectiveness of options and anticipate social risks and potential barriers to adoption. We present the approach by combining a model analysis with a multiple-criteria evaluation of 12 adaptation options by graziers from the Australian rangelands. Our results show that strategies to manage stocking rates and pasture spelling are likely to be effective in improving climate resilience in the rangelands and are easy-to-implement, short-term solutions. Improving land condition is found to have the greatest potential long-term benefits, but was not considered by the graziers to be feasible or effective due to perceived difficulties of implementation. Areas of concordance identified in the assessments may be used to engage with stakeholders and build a foundation for incorporating climate change considerations into management and policy. The approach also highlights discordant views within the assessments that may result from differing management objectives, adaptive capacity and climate-risk perception. These factors are potential impediments to adaptation. The integrated assessment approach enables adaptation strategies and policy recommendations to be developed that have greater relevance to individual stakeholders, and supports capacity building to facilitate the most effective adaptation actions. 相似文献
8.
9.
I. P. Holman R. J. Nicholls P. M. Berry P. A. Harrison E. Audsley S. Shackley M. D. A. Rounsevell 《Climatic change》2005,71(1-2):9-41
Policy makers and stakeholders are increasingly demanding impact assessments which produce policy-relevant guidance on the
local impacts of global climate change. The ‘Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England’ (RegIS) study
developed a methodology for stakeholder-led, regional climate change impact assessment that explicitly evaluated local and
regional (sub-national) scale impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving
landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coasts and floodplains and water resources). The ‘Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response’
(DPSIR) approach provided a structure for linking the modelling and scenario techniques. A 5 × 5 km grid was chosen for numerical
modelling input (climate and socio-economic scenarios) and output, as a compromise between the climate scenario resolution
(10 × 10 km) and the detailed spatial resolution output desired by stakeholders. Fundamental methodological issues have been
raised by RegIS which reflect the difficulty of multi-sectoral modelling studies at local scales. In particular, the role
of scenarios, error propagation in linked models, model validity, transparency and transportability as well as the use of
integrated assessment to evaluate adaptation options to climate change are examined. Integrated assessments will provide new
insights which will compliment those derived by more detailed sectoral assessments. 相似文献
10.
Stewart Cohen Denise Neilsen Scott Smith Tina Neale Bill Taylor Mark Barton Wendy Merritt Younes Alila Philippa Shepherd Roger Mcneill James Tansey Jeff Carmichael Stacy Langsdale 《Climatic change》2006,75(3):331-358
The research activity described in this report is a comprehensive regional assessment of the impacts of climate change on
water resources and options for adaptation in the Okanagan Basin. The ultimate goal of the project is to develop integrated
climate change and water resource scenarios to stimulate a multistakeholder discussion on the implications of climate change
for water management in the region.
The paper describes two main objectives: (a) providing a set of research products that will be of relevance to regional interests
in the Okanagan, and (b) establishing a methodology for participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change impacts
and adaptation that could be applied to climate-related concerns in Canada and other countries.
This collaborative study has relied on field research, computer-based models, and dialogue exercises to generate an assessment
of future implications, and to learn about regional views on the prospects for adaptation. Along the way, it has benefited
from strong partnerships with governments, researchers, local water practitioners, and user groups. Building on the scenario-based
study components, and a series of interviews and surveys undertaken for the water management and adaptation case study components,
a set of stakeholder dialogue sessions were organized which focused on identifying preferred adaptation options and processes
for their implementation. Rather than seeking consensus on the “best” option or process, regional interests were asked to
consider a range of available options as part of an adaptation portfolio that could address both supply side and demand side
aspects of water resources management in the Okanagan.
The Canadian Crown reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright. 相似文献
11.
An effective policy response to climate change will include, among other things, investments in lowering greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation), as well as short-term temporary (flow) and long-lived capital-intensive (stock) adaptation to climate change. A critical near-term question is how investments in reducing climate damages should be allocated across these elements of a climate policy portfolio, especially in the face of uncertainty in both future climate damages and also the effectiveness of yet-untested adaptation efforts. We build on recent efforts in DICE-based integrated assessment modeling approaches that include two types of adaptation—short-lived flow spending and long-lived depreciable adaptation stock investments—along with mitigation, and we identify and explore the uncertainties that impact the relative proportions of policies within a response portfolio. We demonstrate that the relative ratio of flow adaptation, stock adaptation, and mitigation depend critically on interactions among: 1) the relative effectiveness in the baseline of stock versus flow adaptation, 2) the degree of substitutability between stock and flow adaptation types, and 3) whether there exist physical limits on the amount of damages that can be reduced by flow-type adaptation investments. The results indicate where more empirical research on adaptation could focus to best inform near-term policy decisions, and provide a first step towards considering near-term policies that are flexible in the face of uncertainty. 相似文献
12.
Even with substantially increased attention to climate adaptation in developing countries in recent years, there are a number of important remaining research needs: better incorporating stakeholder input; using replicable methodologies to provide comparability across different settings; assuring that stakeholder input reflects the results of climate science, not simply perceptions; and effectively linking stakeholder input with the regional and national levels at which policy changes are made. This study reports the results of a methodology for identifying and prioritizing local, stakeholder-driven response options to climate change in agriculture. The approach is based on multi-criteria scoring methods previously applied to research planning and priority-setting in agricultural and natural resource management research, public health, and other areas. The methodology is a sequential approach built around needs assessments by local stakeholders; the incorporation of climate science results; the sharing of these results and climate adaption response options with stakeholders at a series of workshops; stakeholder priority-setting exercises using multi-criteria scoring; and validation with policymakers. The application is to three diverse agroecosystems in Mexico, Peru and Uruguay. Among the many findings is that, notwithstanding the wide diversity of agro-ecosystems, there are numerous similarities in the agricultural adaptation responses prioritized by local stakeholders. 相似文献
13.
The potential impacts of progressing climate change are alarming. Some adverse consequences are now unavoidable and adaptation measures are increasingly needful. This poses enormous challenges for emerging megacities in the Global South, which barely manage in current weather conditions. This paper introduces Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping as a new tool for structured, semi-quantitative assessments of climate change impacts and adaptation measures.Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping is used to evaluate differences in sensitivities to heatwaves and rainstorms across socio-economic groups and for the ranking of useful adaptation options, based on 188 individual interviews to the impacts of extreme weather events in Hyderabad, India. The results of this multi-stakeholder assessment indicate that rainstorms affect low-income residents more than heatwaves, while the opposite is true for medium-income respondents. The latter are also less seriously affected by extreme weather in general. Profession, though, not income determines the kind of impact that people feel most affected by. Individual characteristics like age and gender do not significantly explain differences in the data, but religion does. This is because, in Hyderabad, Muslims live in the older, less serviced and more affected parts of the city. However, semi-quantitative scenario analyses suggest that, under future climate change, many parts of the city will become increasingly exposed to the effects of extreme weather. Planned investments in urban infrastructure will be seriously challenged by climate change and preventive adaptation measures are urgently needed to at least maintain the current level of quality of life. Investments in the health infrastructure appear to be most effective in reducing the impact of heatwaves and investments in the traffic infrastructure most effective in reducing the impact of rainstorms. However, looking at heat and rain events together—which is realistic as they are both projected to increase and often occur in the same year—reveals that investments in water infrastructure and management have greatest potential to reduce impacts across all localities and on all social groups, particularly the lower-income classes. This is because first-order impacts caused by inadequate water infrastructure often give rise to second- or third-order impacts. Addressing the root cause is the most effective way to break cause-and-effect chains and prevent proliferation of negative consequences. Similar studies are suggested in other cities in order to support adaptation mainstreaming in complex urban environments. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping proved a useful, semi-quantitative tool for climate change impact and adaptation assessments. 相似文献
14.
Fran Sussman Nisha Krishnan Kathryn Maher Rawlings Miller Charlotte Mack Paul Stewart 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):242-282
Researchers and policy makers increasingly recognize the need to adapt to future changes in climate, given that past emissions of greenhouse gases have already committed the world to some level of climate change. However, the current understanding of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures is still fairly rudimentary, and far from comprehensive. An assessment is presented of the current state of knowledge on the magnitude of adaptation costs in the United States. While incomplete, the studies suggest that adaptation cost could be as high as tens or hundreds of billions of dollars per year by the middle of this century. Key studies are identified in each sector, and the cost estimates and approaches to cost estimation are surveyed. Methodological issues are highlighted in interpreting, comparing, and aggregating adaptation cost estimates. Policy recommendations are made along with appropriate steps to make future adaptation cost studies more comparable within and across sectors and more accessible and relevant to policy and decision makers.Policy relevanceDesigning and implementing climate change adaptation policy requires good information about the effectiveness and cost of available adaptive options. The current state of knowledge on adaptation costs in the United States is assessed and significant gaps in the literature are highlighted – particularly in terms of sectoral and geographic coverage – as well as inconsistencies in methodologies and assumptions that hamper comparison across studies. Critical steps are identified that can be taken to make adaptation cost studies more accessible and useful to decision makers. The findings and recommendations are relevant to adaptation cost studies globally, not just in the United States. 相似文献
15.
The projected impact of climate change on agro-ecological systems is considered widespread and significant, particularly across the global tropics. As in many other countries, adaptation to climate change is likely to be an important challenge for Colombian agricultural systems. In a recent study, a national-level assessment of the likely future impacts of climate change on agriculture was performed (Ramirez-Villegas et al. Clim Chang 115:611–628, 2012, RV2012). The study diagnosed key challenges directly affecting major crops and regions within the Colombian agricultural system and suggested a number of actions thought to facilitate adaptation, while refraining from proposing specific strategies at local scales. Further insights on the study were published by Feola (2013) (F2013), who stressed the need for transformative adaptation processes to reduce vulnerability particularly of resource-limited farmers, and the benefits of a predominantly stakeholder-led approach to adaptation. We clarify that the recommendations outlined in RV2012 were not intended as a recipe for multi-scale adaptation, but rather a set of actions that are required to diagnose and develop adaptation actions particularly at governmental levels in coordination with national and international adaptation initiatives. Such adaptation actions ought to be, ideally, a product of inclusive sub-sectorial assessments, which can take different forms. We argue that Colombian agriculture as a whole would benefit from a better outlining of adaptation needs across temporal scales in sub-sectorial assessments that take into account both RV2012 and F2013 orientations to adaptation. We conclude with two case studies of research on climate change impacts and adaptation developed in Colombia that serve as examples of realistic, productive sectorial and sub-national assessments. 相似文献
16.
Developing appropriate climate change adaptations to protect biodiversity requires taking into account the dynamics of agro-ecological and socio-economic change. A framework for approaching this problem was proposed, but not applied in detail, as part of a major biodiversity and climate change report prepared in Australia. This paper describes the first trial application of the method. It was applied across Vietnam as the Government is interested in identifying adaptation options and detailed data are readily available for its 65 provinces. The process involves identifying ecoregions and collating information for each region based on the current conditions and trends in biodiversity, population, income and agricultural production. Climate change scenarios are identified for each region, together with governance options. Educational needs and key adaptation actions are then identified for each region taking into account the agro-ecological and socio-economic input data. It is concluded that the framework could easily be applied in other countries and should assist the development of strategic adaptation options. 相似文献
17.
在对国际气候变化适应行动进行回顾和展望的基础上,介绍了以《联合国气候变化框架公约》为主的国际气候变化适应政策的发展轨迹和趋势,分析了欧盟主要国家、澳大利亚、美国、加拿大、日本、俄罗斯和印度等国所采取的气候变化适应战略,总结出国际气候变化适应行动选择主要集中在极端气候事件与自然灾害、安全的淡水供应、基础设施建设、粮食安全,以及应对气候变化的协调机制等方面。 相似文献
18.
Scaling up national climate adaptation under the Paris Agreement is critical not only to reduce risk, but also to contribute to a nation’s development. Traditional adaptation assessments are aimed at evaluating adaptation to cost-effectively reduce risk and do not capture the far-reaching benefits of adaptation in the context of development and the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). By grounding adaptation planning in an SDG vision, we propose and demonstrate a methodological process that for the first time allows national decision-makers to: i) quantify the adaptation that is needed to safeguard SDG target progress, and ii) evaluate strategies of stakeholder-driven adaptation options to meet those needs whilst delivering additional SDG target co-benefits. This methodological process is spatially applied to a national adaptation assessment in Ghana. In the face of the country’s risk from floods and landslides, this analysis identifies which energy and transport assets to prioritise in order to make the greatest contribution to safeguarding development progress. Three strategies (‘built’, ‘nature-based’, ‘combined SDG strategy’) were formulated through a multi-stakeholder partnership involving government, the private sector, and academia as a means to protect Ghana’s prioritised assets against climate risk. Evaluating these adaptation strategies in terms of their ability to deliver on SDG targets, we find that the combined SDG strategy maximises SDG co-benefits across 116 targets. The proposed methodological process for integrating SDG targets in adaptation assessments is transferable to other climate-vulnerable nations, and can provide decision-makers with spatially-explicit evidence for implementing sustainable adaptation in alignment with the global agendas. 相似文献
19.
An integrated assessment is presented of the potential impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus Canestrini) on the Australian beefindustry under climate change. The project was carried out as a case study to test an impact assessment approach that was designed to integrate biological, production and socio-economic impacts on managed and natural systems. A climate-driven, tick population model was run for European, zebu and crossbred cattle breeds having different levels of resistance to cattle ticks. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to organise spatial data on climate scenarios and industry statistics and to undertake regional analyses.A comparison was made of the two available approaches to conducting impact assessments, namely a bottom-up approach using sensitivity analysis and a top-down approach using climate change scenarios from a global circulation model (GCM) (CSIRO, 1996). The output, in terms of the abundance of tick populations and reductions in cattle productivity for each breed showed significant expansions in potential geographical impacts. In the absence of any adaptation measures, the results indicated changes in the losses in live weight gain of cattle tick ranging from 7780 tonnes per year by 2030 to 21637 tonnes per year by 2100, in comparison with estimates for current losses of 6594 tonnes per year.The principal adaptation options available to the beef industry are to switch to breeds that are more resistant to cattle ticks, or to increase the frequency of treatments with various tick control products. In this paper we focus on switching breeds as an adaptive measure when appropriate damage thresholds are triggered under the climate change scenarios. When adaptation measures were put in place, the losses ranged from 4962 tonnes in 2030 to 5619 tonnes in 2100 compared with 2636 tonnes at present if all producers adopted the optimal breed structure. Optimal breed structure was defined as one that would prevent tick numbers per animal exceeding 100 ticks per animal for European and 700 ticks per animal for crossbred breeds of cattle in any week of the year under a tick control strategy that was suitable for present climatic conditions. The lower threshold for European breeds reflects their vulnerability to explosive increases in numbers because of their low resistance to ticks. The results of the analyses using the GCM scenarios were used in an economic model to calculate costs of lost live-weight gain for 2030, 2070 and 2100. The greatest increases in costs were incurred in the southern parts of the current distribution in Queensland and potentially in northern New South Wales if the present quarantine barrier failed.Given the great uncertainty of the nature of possible regional changes in climate, analyses of the sensitivity of losses in live weight gain to changes in climatic variables were also undertaken. The analyses included a measure of likely impacts of cattle tick on the beef cattle industry, in the absence of adaptation measures, as a baseline measure of sensitivity. The likely impacts on crossbred cattle were insensitive to the climatic variables.When adaptive breed changes were allowed, the economic impacts on the industry were insensitive to the GCM scenarios. This suggests that, at least in this instance, reducing the uncertainties in climate change scenarios is not a priority if the adaptation strategies can be implemented in a cost-effective manner. Finally we made a qualitative assessment of the sustainability and robustness of alternative approaches to adaptation and assessed regional vulnerability to cattle tick under climate change. The conclusions were so strongly dependent on assumptions about the future of other global changes, in particular the ability to maintain quarantine barriers and to retain effective acaricides at comparable costs to the present, that we strongly recommend that risk assessments of climate change extend to all relevant variables in involved in global change where possible. 相似文献
20.
Kristie L. Ebi Jonathan Padgham Mamadou Doumbia Alpha Kergna Joel Smith Tanveer Butt Bruce McCarl 《Climatic change》2011,108(3):423-436
This study was undertaken to assess the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture in the Sikasso region of southern
Mali, as part of an effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to integrate climate change adaptation
considerations into their development projects. The region is considered to be the breadbasket of Mali, providing a substantial
amount of the country’s food supplies as well as cotton for exchange earnings. The project had two components: modeling how
climate change could affect production of cereal and cash crops in southern Mali; and conducting a stakeholder-driven vulnerability
and adaptation assessment to identify potential options for addressing current and projected risks to agriculture from climate
change. Projected changes in crop yields were based on a previous analysis that was extended for the purposes of this study.
The projections suggested that the sensitivity of maize to changing weather conditions is relatively small (generally less
than 10% change) under both dry and wet scenarios in 2030 and 2060. White (Irish) potatoes, the primary cash crop, are the
most sensitive to changing weather conditions, with yields decreasing under both dry and wet conditions; yields could decrease
by about 25% by 2060. Stakeholder workshops, field interviews, and an expert analysis were used to assess current and future
climate-related vulnerability and to identify potential adaptation options. The main focus of the assessment was farmers in
a village of about 3,000 people in the Sikasso region that practiced a rice-potato rotation system typical to the region.
The farmers emphasized adaptation measures that require outside financial and technical assistance, for example installation
of a water gate that would retain more water in the inland valley and increase the water table to flood rice fields during
the rainy season and for furrow irrigation of potatoes during the dry season. Adaptations emphasized by both the farmers and
representatives of regional technical services were crop diversification and germplasm improvement; soil and water management;
access to equipment (plows, carts, oxen, and improved stoves); credit stockage villageois (CSV); and fertilizer. 相似文献