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1.
A numerical study is conducted to investigate the impact of climate changes on ocean surface gravity waves over the eastern Canadian shelf (ECS). The “business-as-usual” climate scenario known as Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 is considered in this study. Changes in the ocean surface gravity waves over the study region for the period 1979–2100 are examined based on 3 hourly ocean waves simulated by the third-generation ocean wave model known as WAVEWATCHIII. The wave model is driven by surface winds and ice conditions produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4). The whole study period is divided into the present (1979–2008), near future (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) periods to quantify possible future changes of ocean waves over the ECS. In comparison with the present ocean wave conditions, the time-mean significant wave heights (H s ) are expected to increase over most of the ECS in the near future and decrease over this region in the far future period. The time-means of the annual 5% largest H s are projected to increase over the ECS in both near and far future periods due mainly to the changes in surface winds. The future changes in the time-means of the annual 5% largest H s and 10-m wind speeds are projected to be twice as strong as the changes in annual means. An analysis of inverse wave ages suggests that the occurrence of wind seas is projected to increase over the southern Labrador and central Newfoundland Shelves in the near future period, and occurrence of swells is projected to increase over other areas of the ECS in both the near and far future periods.  相似文献   

2.
The dynamics of energetic electrons (E e =0.17–8 MeV) and protons (E p =1 MeV) of the outer radiation belt during the magnetic storm of May 15, 2005, at high (GOES-10 and LANL-84 geosynchronous satellites) and low (Meteor-3M polar satellite) altitudes is analyzed. The data have been compared to the density, plasma velocity, solar wind, and magnetic field measurements on the ACE satellite and geomagnetic disturbances. During the magnetic storm main phase, the nighttime boundary of the region of trapped radiation and the center of westward electrojet shifted to L ～ 3. Enhancements of only low-energy electrons were observed on May 15, 2005. The belt of relativistic electrons with a maximum at L ～ 4 was formed during the substorm, the amplitude of which reached its maximum at ～0630 UT on May 16. The results are in good agreement with the regularity relating the position of a maximum of the new relativistic electron belt, boundaries of the trapped radiation region, and extreme low-latitude position of westward electrojet center to the Dst variation amplitude.  相似文献   

3.
An autonomous vessel, the Offshore Sensing Sailbuoy, was used for wave measurements near the Ekofisk oil platform complex in the North Sea (56.5º N, 3.2º E, operated by ConocoPhillips) from 6 to 20 November 2015. Being 100 % wind propelled, the Sailbuoy has two-way communication via the Iridium network and has the capability for missions of 6 months or more. It has previously been deployed in the Arctic, Norwegian Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, but the present study was the first test for wave measurements. During the campaign the Sailbuoy held position about 20 km northeast of Ekofisk (on the lee side) during rough conditions. Mean wind speed measured at Ekofisk during the campaign was 9.8 m/s, with a maximum of 20.4 m/s, with wind mostly from south and southwest. A Datawell MOSE G1000 GPS-based 2 Hz wave sensor was mounted on the Sailbuoy. Mean significant wave height (H s 1 min) measured was 3 m, whereas maximum H s was 6 m. Mean wave period was 7.7 s, while maximum wave height, H max, was 12.6 m. These measurements have been compared with non-directional Waverider observations at the Ekofisk complex. The agreement between the two data sets was very good, with a mean percent absolute error of 7 % and a linear correlation coefficient of 0.97. The wave frequency spectra measured by the two instruments compared very well, except for low H s (～1 m), where the motion of the vessel seemed to influence the measurements. Nevertheless, the Sailbuoy performed well during this campaign, and results suggest that it is a suitable platform for wave measurements in a broad range of sea conditions.  相似文献   

4.
Intense quasimonchromatic geomagnetic pulsations with a period of ～15 min, observed on the Earth’s surface in the near-noon sector at the beginning of the recovery phase of a very strong (Dst min = ?260 nT) magnetic storm of May 15, 2005, are analyzed. The variations were registered at auroral latitudes only in the X field component, and wave activity shifted into the postnoon sector of the polar cap an hour later; in this case pulsations were observed in the X and Y field components. Within the magnetosphere the source of magnetic pulsations could be the surface waves on the magnetopause caused by the pulse of the solar wind magnetic pressure. Geomagnetic pulsations in the polar cap, observed in phase at different latitudes, could apparently reflect quasiperiodic variations in the NBZ system of field-aligned currents. Such variations can originate due to the series of pulsed reconnections in the postnoon outer cusp at large (～20 nT) positive B z values and large (about ?40 nT) negative values of IMF B x .  相似文献   

5.
The level of wave geomagnetic activity in the morning and daytime sectors of auroral latitudes during strong magnetic storms with Dst min varying from ?100 to ?150 nT in 1995–2002 have been studied using a new ULF index of wave activity proposed in [Kozyreva et al., 2007]. It has been detected that daytime Pc5 pulsations (2–6 mHz) are most intense during the main phase of a magnetic storm rather than during the recovery phase as was considered previously. It has been indicated that morning geomagnetic pulsations during the substorm recovery phase mainly contribute to daytime wave activity. The appearance of individual intervals with the southward IMF B z component during the magnetic storm recovery phase results in increases in the ULF index values.  相似文献   

6.
Statistical tests have been used to adjust the Zemmouri seismic data using a distribution function. The Pareto law has been used and the probabilities of various expected earthquakes were computed. A mathematical expression giving the quantiles was established. The extreme values limiting law confirmed the accuracy of the adjustment method. Using the moment magnitude scale, a probabilistic model was made to predict the occurrences of strong earthquakes. The seismic structure has been characterized by the slope of the recurrence plot γ, fractal dimension D, concentration parameter Ksr, Hurst exponents Hr and Ht. The values of D, γ, Ksr, Hr, and Ht diminished many months before the principal seismic shock (M = 6.9) of the studied seismoactive zone has occurred. Three stages of the deformation of the geophysical medium are manifested in the variation of the coefficient G% of the clustering of minor seismic events.  相似文献   

7.
The high-latitude geomagnetic effects of an unusually long initial phase of the largest magnetic storm (SymH ~–220 nT) in cycle 24 of the solar activity are considered. Three interplanetary shocks characterized by considerable solar wind density jumps (up to 50–60 cm–3) at a low solar wind velocity (350–400 km/s) approached the Earth’s magnetosphere during the storm initial phase. The first two dynamic impacts did not result in the development of a magnetic storm, since the IMF Bz remained positive for a long time after these shocks, but they caused daytime polar substorms (magnetic bays) near the boundary between the closed and open magnetosphere. The magnetic field vector diagrams at high latitudes and the behaviour of high-latitude long-period geomagnetic pulsations (ipcl and vlp) made it possible to specify the dynamics of this boundary position. The spatiotemporal features of daytime polar substorms (the dayside polar electrojet, PE) caused by sudden changes in the solar wind dynamic pressure are discussed in detail, and the singularities of ionospheric convection in the polar cap are considered. It has been shown that the main phase of this two-stage storm started rapidly developing only when the third most intense shock approached the Earth against a background of large negative IMF Bz values (to–39 nT). It was concluded that the dynamics of convective vortices and the related restructing of the field-aligned currents can result in spatiotemporal fluctuations in the closing ionospheric currents that are registered on the Earth’s surface as bay-like magnetic disturbances.  相似文献   

8.
The evaluation and design of stone column improvement ground for liquefaction mitigation is a challenging issue for the state of practice. In this paper, a shear wave velocity-based approach is proposed based on the well-defined correlations of liquefaction resistance (CRR)-shear wave velocity (V s)-void ratio (e) of sandy soils, and the values of parameters in this approach are recommended for preliminary design purpose when site specific values are not available. The detailed procedures of pre- and post-improvement liquefaction evaluations and stone column design are given. According to this approach, the required level of ground improvement will be met once the target V s of soil is raised high enough (i.e., no less than the critical velocity) to resist the given earthquake loading according to the CRR-V s relationship, and then this requirement is transferred to the control of target void ratio (i.e., the critical e) according to the V s-e relationship. As this approach relies on the densification of the surrounding soil instead of the whole improved ground and is conservative by nature, specific considerations of the densification mechanism and effect are given, and the effects of drainage and reinforcement of stone columns are also discussed. A case study of a thermal power plant in Indonesia is introduced, where the effectiveness of stone column improved ground was evaluated by the proposed V s-based method and compared with the SPT-based evaluation. This improved ground performed well and experienced no liquefaction during subsequent strong earthquakes.  相似文献   

9.
Solutions of P-SV equations of motion in a homogeneous transversely isotropic elastic layer contain a factor exp(±ν j z), where z is the vertical coordinate and j?=?1, 2. For computing Rayleigh wave dispersion in a multi-layered half space, ν j is computed at each layer. For a given phase velocity (c), ν j becomes complex depending on the transversely isotropic parameters. When ν j is complex, classical Rayleigh waves do not exist and generalised Rayleigh waves propagate along a path inclined to the interface. We use transversely isotropic parameters as α H , β V , ξ, ? and η and find their limits beyond which ν j becomes complex. It is seen that ν j depends on ? and η, but does not depend on ξ. The complex ν j occurs when ? is small and η is large. For a given c/β V , the region of complex ν j in a ? -η plane increases with the increase of α H /β V . Further, for a given α H /β V , the complex region of ν j increases significantly with the decrease of c/β V . This study is useful to compute dispersion parameters of Rayleigh waves in a layered medium.  相似文献   

10.
Parameters of the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind plasma during periods of 163 isolated substorms have been studied. It is shown that the solar wind velocity V and plasma density N remain approximately constant for at least 3 h before substorm onset Т o and 1 h after Т o . On average, the velocity of the solar wind exhibits a stable trend toward anticorrelation with its density over the whole data array. However, the situation is different if the values of V and N are considered with respect to the intensity of substorms observed during that period. With the growth of substorm intensity, quantified as the maximum absolute value of AL index, an increase in both the solar wind plasma velocity and density, at which these substorms appear, is obsreved. It has been found that the magnitude of the solar wind dynamic pressure P is closely related to the magnetosphere energy load defined as averaged values of the Kan–Lee electric field EKL and Newell parameter dΦ/dt averaged for 1 h interval before Т o . The growth of the dynamic pressure is accompanied by an increase in the load energy necessary for substorm generation. This interrelation between P and values of EKL and dΦ/dt is absent in other, arbitrarily chosen periods. It is believed that the processes accompanying increasing dynamic pressure of the solar wind result in the formation of magnetosphere conditions that increasingly impede substorm generation. Thus, the larger is P, the more solar wind energy must enter the Earth’s magnetosphere during the period of the growth phase for substorm generation. This energy is later released during the period of the substorm expansion phase and creates even more intense magnetic bays.  相似文献   

11.
The problem of estimating the time derivatives of the horizontal components of the geomagnetic field and forecasting the probability of the occurrence of perturbations that exceed a given threshold level (the over-threshold perturbations) arises in the applications concerned with the geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). In this work, we consider the temporal and spatial structure of the Pi3 pulsations with quasi-periods of 102 to 103 s during which the auroral and subauroral stations of the IMAGE network record over-threshold values in the derivatives of the meridional (along the longitudinal circle) BX component and latitudinal (along the latitudinal circle) BY component. The extreme |dBX/dt| values mainly develop against the background of the Pi3 pulsations with a complex frequency content, whereas the extreme |dBY/dt| values appear when the buildup (decay) phases of the bay-like disturbance associated with the evolution of a substorm coincide with the respective phases of the field of pulsations. The conditions under which the derivatives |dBX/dt| and |dBY/dt| reach their over-threshold values are studied for subauroral latitudes by the technique of superposed epoch analysis. The extreme values of the derivatives most frequently occur during the main phase of moderate magnetic storms or beyond the storm—during high substorm activity under the conditions of a negative vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field. The probability of the occurrence of over-threshold values increases at high amplitudes of the Pi3 pulsations and depends on their spectral content. The problem of analyzing and forecasting the over-threshold |dBY/dt| perturbations is complicated by the fact that the scale of the perturbations is small along the lines of latitude and large along the meridians. This can result in GIC excitation in the North–South oriented electric power lines by the geomagnetic perturbations localized within a narrow band in longitude which can be missed during the measurements.  相似文献   

12.
This paper investigated the effects of basin geometry and material property on the response of 2D trapezoidal sediment-filled basin to incident plane SH waves. Ten basin configurations with different geometries were developed, and then their seismic responses to both Ricker wavelets and seismic records were simulated by using an explicit finite difference scheme. The definition of deep/shallow basin, the precondition for the observation of prominent surface waves and the influential area of edge effects of the shallow basin were discussed quantitatively in this study. The followings were concluded: in the common velocity contrast range (v s1/v s2 < 10), the fundamental frequency a basin with W/H > 3.0 can be estimated approximately by 1D theory. The complexity of peak ground acceleration distribution pattern, the width of the most affected section as well as the amplitude of ground motion in the Edge Region increase with incident frequency. Prominent surface waves can only be observed when the incident wavelength is shorter than the critical wavelength λ c . The interaction between incident wave and basin dynamic property plays a dominant role on the peak ground acceleration amplitude while the interaction between incident wave and geometry plays a more significant role on the peak ground acceleration distribution. For very shallow basin, different areas along the basin width are affected to different extents. Only a limited area close to the basin edge is influenced significantly. It is more feasible to propose spectral aggravation factor for different surface zones respectively than a uniform constant as a tool to calibrate the 1D-based design spectrum so as to take the basin effects into account.  相似文献   

13.
Simultaneous observations of high-latitude long-period irregular pulsations at frequencies of 2.0–6.0 mHz (ipcl) and magnetic field disturbances in the solar wind plasma at low geomagnetic activity (Kp ~ 0) have been studied. The 1-s data on the magnetic field registration at Godhavn (GDH) high-latitude observatory and the 1-min data on the solar wind plasma and IMF parameters for 2011–2013 were used in an analysis. Ipcl (irregular pulsations continuous, long), which were observed against a background of the IMF Bz reorientation from northward to southward, have been analyzed. In this case other solar wind plasma and IMF parameters, such as velocity V, density n, solar wind dynamic pressure P = ρV2 (ρ is plasma density), and strength magnitude B, were relatively stable. The effect of the IMF Bz variation rate on the ipcl spectral composition and intensity has been studied. It was established that the ipcl spectral density reaches its maximum (~10–20 min) after IMF Bz sign reversal in a predominant number of cases. It was detected that the ipcl average frequency (f) is linearly related to the IMF Bz variation rate (ΔBz/Δt). It was shown that the dependence of f on ΔBz/Δt is controlled by the α = arctan(By/Bx) angle value responsible for the MHD discontinuity type at the front boundary of magnetosphere. The results made it possible to assume that the formation of the observed ipcl spectrum, which is related to the IMF Bz reorientation, is caused by solar wind plasma turbulence, which promotes the development of current sheet instability and surface wave amplification at the magnetopause.  相似文献   

14.
Equations of regression are derived for the intense magnetic storms of 1957?2016. They reflect the nonlinear relation between Dstmin and the effective index of geomagnetic activity Ap(τ) with a timeweighted factor τ. Based on this and on known estimations of the upper limit of the magnetic storm intensity (Dstmin =–2500 nT), the maximal possible value Ap(τ)max ~ 1000 nT is obtained. This makes it possible to obtain initial estimates of the upper limit of variations in some parameters of the thermosphere and ionosphere that are due to geomagnetic activity. It is found, in particular, that the upper limit of an increase in the thermospheric density is seven to eight times larger than for the storm in March 1989, which was the most intense for the entire space era. The maximum possible amplitude of the negative phase of the ionospheric storm in the number density of the F2-layer maximum at midlatitudes is nearly six times higher than for the March 1989 storm. The upper limit of the F2-layer rise in this phase of the ionospheric storm is also considerable. Based on qualitative analysis, it is found that the F2-layer maximum in daytime hours at midlatitudes for these limiting conditions is not pronounced and even may be unresolved in the experiment, i.e., above the F1-layer maximum, the electron number density may smoothly decrease with height up to the upper boundary of the plasmasphere.  相似文献   

15.
Crustal receiver functions have been calculated from 128 events for two three-component broadband seismomenters located on the south coast (FOMA) and in the central High Plateaux (ABPO) of Madagascar. For each station, crustal thickness and V p /V s ratio were estimated from H- κ plots. Self-consistent receiver functions from a smaller back-azimuthal range were then selected, stacked and inverted to determine shear wave velocity structure as a function of depth. These results were corroborated by guided forward modeling and by Monte Carlo error analysis. The crust is found to be thinner (39 ± 0.7 km) beneath the highland center of Madagascar compared to the coast (44 ± 1.6 km), which is the opposite of what would be expected for crustal isostasy, suggesting that present-day long wavelength topography is maintained, at least in part, dynamically. This inference of dynamic support is corroborated by shear wave splitting analyses at the same stations, which produce an overwhelming majority of null results (>96 %), as expected for vertical mantle flow or asthenospheric upwelling beneath the island. These findings suggest a sub-plate origin for dynamic support.  相似文献   

16.
The modified scale M s(20R) is developed for the magnitude classification of the earthquakes of Russia’s Far East based on the surface wave amplitudes at regional distances. It extends the applicability of the classical Gutenberg scale M s(20) towards small epicentral distances (0.7°–20°). The magnitude is determined from the amplitude of the signal that is preliminarily bandpassed to extract the components with periods close to 20 s. The amplitude is measured either for the surface waves or, at fairly short distances of 0.7°–3°, for the inseparable wave group of the surface and shear waves. The main difference of the M s(20R) scale with the traditional M s(BB) Soloviev–Vanek scale is its firm spectral anchoring. This approach practically eliminated the problem of the significant (up to–0.5) regional and station anomalies characteristic of the M s(BB) scale in the conditions of the Far East. The absence of significant station and regional anomalies, as well as the strict spectral anchoring, make the M s(20R) scale advantageous when used for prompt decision making in tsunami warnings for the coasts of Russia’s Far East.  相似文献   

17.
We made an attempt to assess the shear wave velocity values V S and, to a lesser extent, the V P values from ambient noise recordings in an array configuration. Five array sites were situated in the close proximity to borehole sites. Shear wave velocity profiles were modeled at these five array sites with the aid of two computational techniques, viz. spatial autocorrelation (SPAC) and H/V ellipticity. Out of these five array sites, velocity estimates could be reliably inferred at three locations. The shear wave velocities estimated by these methods are found to be quite consistent with each other. The computed V S values up to 30 m depth are in the range from 275 to 375 m/s in most of the sites, which implies prevalence of a low velocity zone at some pocket areas. The results were corroborated by evidence of site geology as well as geotechnical information.  相似文献   

18.
An alternative model for the nonlinear interaction term Snl in spectral wave models, the so called generalized kinetic equation (Janssen J Phys Oceanogr 33(4):863–884, 2003; Annenkov and Shrira J Fluid Mech 561:181–207, 2006b; Gramstad and Stiassnie J Fluid Mech 718:280–303, 2013), is discussed and implemented in the third generation wave model WAVEWATCH-III. The generalized kinetic equation includes the effects of near-resonant nonlinear interactions, and is therefore able, in theory, to describe faster nonlinear evolution than the existing forms of Snl which are based on the standard Hasselmann kinetic equation (Hasselmann J Fluid Mech 12:481–500, 1962). Numerical simulations with WAVEWATCH have been carried out to thoroughly test the performance of the new form of Snl, and to compare it to the existing models for Snl in WAVEWATCH; the DIA and WRT. Some differences between the different models for Snl are observed. As expected, the DIA is shown to perform less well compared to the exact terms in certain situations, in particular for narrow wave spectra. Also for the case of turning wind significant differences between the different models are observed. Nevertheless, different from the case of unidirectional waves where the generalized kinetic equation represents a obvious improvement to the standard forms of Snl (Gramstad and Stiassnie 2013), the differences seems to be less pronounced for the more realistic cases considered in this paper.  相似文献   

19.
The dependence of the zonal geomagnetic indices (AE, Ap, Kp, Kn, and Dst) on the solar wind parameters (the electric field E y component, dynamic pressure P d and IMF irregularity σB) has been studied for two types of events: magnetic clouds and high-speed streams. Based on the empirical relationships, it has been established that the AE, Ap, Kp, and Kn indices are directly proportional to the E y value at E y < 12 mV m?1 and are inversely proportional to this value at E y > 12 mV m?1 for the first-type events. On the contrary, the dependence of Dst on E y is monotonous nonlinear. A linear dependence of all geomagnetic indices on E y is typical of the second-type events. It has been indicated that the specific features of geoeffectiveness of magnetic clouds and high-speed solar wind streams are caused by the dependence of the electric field potential across the polar cap on the electric field, solar wind dynamic pressure, and IMF fluctuations.  相似文献   

20.
Based on the light-photosynthesis response measurement at leaf level, combined with over-and under-canopy eddy covariance measurements, research on photosynthetic characteristics of single trees and forest canopy was conducted. The relationship between light intensity and photosynthetic rates for leaves and canopy can be well fitted by a non-rectangular hyperbola model. Mongolian oak presented a high light compensation point, L cp (28 μmol·m?2·s?1), a light saturation point L sp (>1800 μmol·m?2·s?1), and a maximal net photosynthetic rate P max (9.96 μmol·m?2·s?1), which suggest that it is a typical heliophilous plant. Mono maple presented the highest apparent quantum efficiency α (0.066) but the lowest, L cp (16 μmol·m?2·s?1), L sp (≈800 μmol·m?2·s?1), and P max (4.51 μmol·m?2·s?1), which suggest that it is heliophilous plant. Korean pine showed the lowest α value but a higher P max, which suggest that it is a semi-heliophilous plant. At the canopy level, the values of both α and P max approached the upper limit of reported values in temperate forests, while L cp was within the lower limit. Canopy photosynthetic characteristics were well consistent with those of leaves. Both showed a high ability to photosynthesize. However, environmental stresses, especially high vapor pressure deficits, could significantly reduce the photosynthetic ability of leaves and canopy.  相似文献   

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