Rapid uranium-series age screening of carbonates by laser ablation mass spectrometry     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2016

Uranium-series dating is a critical tool in quaternary geochronology, including paleoclimate work, archaeology and geomorphology. Laser ablation (LA) methods are not as precise as most isotope dilution methods, but can be used to generate calendar ages rapidly, expanding the range of dating tools that can be applied to late Pleistocene carbonates. Here, existing LA methods are revisited for corals (cold- and warm-water) and speleothems spanning the last 343 thousand years (ka). Measurement of the required isotopes (²³⁸U, ²³⁴U, ²³⁰Th and ²³²Th) is achieved by coupling a laser system to a multi-collector inductively-coupled-plasma mass spectrometer (MC-ICPMS) using a combination of a single central ion counter and an array of Faraday cups. Each sample analysis lasts for ∼4.3 min, and fifty samples can be measured in 12 h with an automated set up, after a day of sample preparation. The use of different standard materials and laser systems had no significant effect on method accuracy. Uncertainty on the measured (²³⁰Th/²³⁸U) activity ratios ranges from 5.4% to 7.6% for (²³⁰Th/²³⁸U) ratios equal to 0.7 and 0.1 respectively. Much of this uncertainty can be attributed to the heterogeneity of the standard material (²³⁰Th/²³⁸U) at the length scale of LA. A homogeneous standard material may therefore improve measurement uncertainty but is not a requirement for age-screening studies. The initial (²³⁴U/²³⁸U) of coral samples can be determined within ∼20‰, making it useful as a first indicator of open-system behaviour. For cold-water corals, success in determination of (²³²Th/²³⁸U) – which can affect final age accuracy – by LA depended strongly on sample heterogeneity. Age uncertainties (2 sigma) ranged from <0.8 ka at 0–10 ka, ∼1.5 ka at 20 ka to ∼15 ka at 125 ka. Thus, we have demonstrated that U-series dating by LA-MC-ICPMS can be usefully applied to a range of carbonate materials as a straightforward age-screening technique.  相似文献   

Growth and survival of Halimione portulacoides stem cuttings in heavy metal contaminated soils     

《Marine pollution bulletin》2013,76(1-2):28-32

The halophytic shrub Halimione portulacoides demonstrates a high tolerance to heavy metal contamination and a capacity for accumulating metals within its tissues. On the Iberian Peninsula, this species has colonized habitats with high levels of metal pollution. The aim of this study is to analyze the response of H. portulacoides stem cuttings to this pollution. Growth, photosynthesis and metal uptake were examined in H. portulacoides through an experiment in which stem cuttings were replanted in metal-contaminated soil. This condition decreased growth and lowered both photosynthetic rate and stomatal conductance. Reduced photosynthetic performance was largely due to the reduced concentration of photosynthetic pigments. Despite these responses, there was some important evidence suggesting the phytoremediatory potential of Halimione stem cuttings. The results of our study indicate that this salt-marsh shrub may represent a biotool of value in the restoration of polluted areas.  相似文献   

Assessment of eight reference evapotranspiration (ETo) methods considering Köppen climate class in Iran     

Samira Akhavan  Fatemeh Mousabeygi  Murray C. Peel 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(10):1468-1481

ABSTRACT

The performance of eight empirical equations for estimating ET_o at 80 weather stations in Iran is evaluated. The equations assessed are Hargreaves (HGS), Trajkovic (TKC), Berti (BTI), Ravazzani (RZI), Irmak (IMK), Turc (TRC) and two Valiantzas methods (VTS1 and VTS2). The FAO56 reference crop Penman-Monteith (PM) equation is used as a baseline to evaluate their performance. Also, a Köppen climate classification map for Iran is developed and the best ET_o method for each climate type identified. The updated Köppen climate map shows six climate sub-classes; BWh, BWk, BSh, BSk, Csa and Dsa in Iran with a percentage of land area covered by each sub-class of 43, 17, 7, 9, 11 and 13%, respectively. The best performing ET_o equation for each climate class in Iran was HGS for BSh, VTS1 for BWk, and VTS2 for BSk, BWh, Csa and Dsa.  相似文献   

Effects of changing climate on ice cover in three morphometrically different lakes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Madeline R. Magee  Chin H. Wu 《水文研究》2017,31(2):308-323

A one‐dimensional hydrodynamic lake model (DYRESM‐WQ‐I) is employed to simulate ice cover and water temperatures over the period 1911–2014. The effects of climate changes (air temperature and wind speed) on ice cover (ice‐on, ice‐off, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) are modeled and compared for the three different morphometry lakes: Fish Lake, Lake Wingra, and Lake Mendota, located in Madison, Wisconsin, USA. It is found that the ice cover period has decreased due to later ice‐on dates and earlier ice‐off dates, and the annual maximum ice cover thickness has decreased for the three lakes during the last century. Based upon simulated perturbations of daily mean air temperatures across the range of ?10°C to +10°C of historical values, Fish Lake has the most occurrences of no ice cover and Lake Wingra still remains ice covered under extreme conditions (+10°C). Overall, shallower lakes with larger surface areas appear more resilient to ice cover changes caused by climate changes.  相似文献   

21世纪以来泛北极湖泊水位变化时空特征及原因探讨     

梁新歌  王涵  赵爽  宋春桥 《湖泊科学》2023,35(6):2111-2122

在全球气候变暖和极端气候事件增加的背景下,流域水文循环过程受到的影响越来越强烈,导致湖泊水位变化表现出复杂的时空特征。而泛北极地区是地球上湖泊数量与面积分布最为集中的区域之一,该地区湖泊对气候变化响应非常敏感。因此,了解这些湖泊近期水文变化特征十分必要。本研究共搜集了36个泛北极大型湖泊(>500 km²)基于遥感或站点观测的近20年水位数据,分析其时空变化特征。本文使用线性回归模型来估算湖泊水位的变化趋势,进而利用皮尔逊相关分析了其主要水文影响变量和大气环流机制,并运用Mann-Kendall突变检验法探讨了水位突变的原因。结果表明,泛北极湖泊的水位整体上呈现不同程度上升(平均速率为0.013 m/a),有23个(64%)湖泊的水位呈上升趋势;研究湖泊中有10个通过90%统计显著性检验。其中,水位上升速率最大的湖泊是位于哈萨克斯坦的腾吉兹湖,上升速率为0.078 m/a。泛北极湖泊水位的波动主要与径流有关,有19个(53%)湖泊的水位波动与径流的增加更为相关;相比而言,位于亚洲的极地湖泊水位的上升与流域蒸发的降低显著相关,尤其是库苏古尔湖。从区域大气环流影响来看,泛北极湖泊水位变化主要与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动有关,其次是北极涛动和北大西洋涛动。本研究有助于加深对泛北极湖泊近20年水位变化规律及气候影响特征的科学理解。  相似文献   

Sensitivity of physical lake processes to climate change within a large Precambrian Shield catchment          下载免费PDF全文

J. Crossman  M. C. Eimers  J. G. Kerr  H. Yao 《水文研究》2016,30(23):4353-4366

Potential future changes in lake physical processes (e.g. stratification and freezing) can be assessed through exploring their sensitivity to climate change, and assessing the current vulnerability of different lake types to plausible changes in meteorological drivers. This study quantifies the impacts of climate change and sensitivity of lake physical processes within a large (5100 km²) Precambrian Shield catchment in south‐central Ontario. Historic regional relationships are established between climate drivers, lake morphology, and lake physical changes through generalized linear modelling (GLM), and are used to quantify likely changes in timing of ice phenology and lake stratification across 72 lakes under a range of future climate models and scenarios. In response to projections of increased temperature (ensemble mean of +3.3 °C), both earlier ice‐off and onset of summer stratification were projected, with later ice‐on and fall turnover compared to the baseline. Process sensitivity to climate change varied by lake type; shallower lakes with a smaller volume (less than 15 m deep and less than 0.05 km³) were more sensitive to processes associated with lake heating (stratification onset and ice‐off), and deeper lakes with a larger surface area (greater than 30 m deep and greater than 1000 ha) were more sensitive to processes associated with lake cooling (fall turnover and ice‐on). These results indicate that whereas small lakes are vulnerable to climate warming because of changes that occur in spring and summer, larger lakes are particularly sensitive during the fall. The findings suggest that lake morphology and associated sensitivity should be considered in the development of sustainable lake management strategies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

全球变化下青藏高原湖泊在地表水循环中的作用   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

朱立平  彭萍  张国庆  乔宝晋  刘翀  杨瑞敏  王君波 《湖泊科学》2020,32(3):597-608

青藏高原是地球上最重要的高海拔地区之一,对全球变化具有敏感响应.青藏高原作为"亚洲水塔",其地表水资源及其变化对高原本身及周边地区的经济社会发展具有重要的影响.然而,在气候变暖的情况下,构成高原地表水资源的各个组分,如冰川、湖泊、河流、降水等水体的相变及其转化却鲜为人知.湖泊是青藏高原地表水体相变和水循环的关键环节.湖泊面积、水位和水量对西风和印度季风的降水变化非常敏感,但湖泊面积和水量变化在不同区域和时段的响应也不尽相同.湖泊水温对气候变暖具有明显响应,湖泊水温和水下温跃层深度的变化能够对水—气的热量交换具有明显影响,从而影响了区域蒸发和降水等水循环过程.由于湖泊水量增加,高原中部色林错地区湖泊盐度自1970s以来普遍下降.根据60多个湖泊实地监测建立的遥感反演模型研究发现,2000—2019年湖泊透明度普遍升高.对不同补给类型的大湖水量平衡监测发现,影响湖泊变化的气象和水文要素具有较大差异.在目前的暖湿气候条件下,青藏高原的湖泊将会持续扩张.为了深入认识湖泊变化在青藏高原区域水循环和气候变化中的作用,需要全面了解湖泊水量赋存及连续的时间序列变化,需要深入了解湖泊理化参数变化及对湖泊大气之间热量交换的影响,需要更多来自大湖流域的综合连续观测数据.  相似文献   

River flow regimes in a changing climate     

IRINA KRASOVSKAIA  LARS GOTTSCHALK 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):597-609

Abstract

A river flow regime describes an average seasonal behaviour of flow and reflects the climatic and physiographic conditions in a basin. Differences in the regularity (stability) of the seasonal patterns reflect different dimensionality of the flow regimes, which can change subject to changes in climate conditions. The empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) approach can be used to describe the intrinsic dimension of river flow regimes and is also an adopted method for reducing the phase space in connection to climate change studies, especially in studies of nonlinear dynamic systems with preferred states. A large data set of monthly river flow for the Nordic countries has been investigated in the phase space reduced to the first few amplitude functions to trace a possible signature of climate change on the seasonal flow patterns. The probability density functions (PDF) of the weight coefficients and their possible change over time were used as an indicator of climate change. Two preferred states were identified connected to stable snowmelt-fed and rainfed flow regimes. The results indicate changes in the PDF patterns with time towards higher frequencies of rainfed regime types. The dynamics of seasonal patterns studied in terms of PDF renders it an adequate and convenient characterization, helping to avoid bias connected to flow regime classifications as well as uncertainties inferred by a modelling approach.  相似文献   

1976-2015年柴达木盆地湖泊演变及其对气候变化和人类活动的响应   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

段水强 《湖泊科学》2018,30(1):256-265

柴达木盆地众多的湖泊不仅对维持当地脆弱的生态环境具有极其重要的作用,而且中心盐湖也是重要的矿产资源.进入21世纪以来,受气候变化和人类活动的共同影响,盆地湖泊发生了一系列重大变化.为科学认识这一问题,选取了1976-2015年6期Landsat系列卫星影像,解译了该区域1 km²以上的湖泊水面,并分析了湖泊变化对气候和人类活动的响应.结果表明：柴达木盆地湖泊面积总体上存在扩张（1976-1990年）萎缩（1990-2000年）扩张（2000-2010年）萎缩（2010-2015年）4个阶段的变化过程,2010年湖泊面积最大,2015年湖泊又明显萎缩.就气候水文因素而言,湖泊面积变化主要受山区降水径流的影响.湖面变化与前3 a的降水径流关系最为密切.进入21世纪以来,气候变化与上游社会经济耗水、盐湖周边人为阻隔河湖连通、开采卤水、修建人工盐田、排放老卤等人类活动,对盆地中心湖泊的空间格局、面积都产生了显著影响,苦水沟、达布逊湖南部形成了新湖泊,鸦湖、团结湖面积显著扩大,东、西台吉乃尔湖逐渐萎缩、干涸,一里平湖由以前的干盐湖在2010年一跃成为盆地最大的湖泊.针对盐湖大规模开发产生的负面影响,提出了合理开发盐湖资源的建议.  相似文献   

Impacts of regional warming on long‐term hypolimnetic anoxia and dissolved oxygen concentration in a deep lake          下载免费PDF全文

Yuji Ito  Kazuro Momii 《水文研究》2015,29(9):2232-2242

Although few reports have described long‐term continuous anoxia in aquatic systems, Lake Ikeda in Japan experienced such conditions in the hypolimnion from 1990 to 2010. The present study aimed to assess temporal fluctuations in the lake's thermal stability from 1978 to 2011 to understand the influence of regional climate change on hypolimnetic anoxia in this lake. Because complete vertical mixing, which supplies dissolved oxygen (DO) to the hypolimnion, potentially occurs on February, we calculated the Schmidt stability index (S) in February and compared it with hypolimnetic DO dynamics. Vertical water temperature profiles were calculated using a one‐dimensional model, and calculated temperatures and meteorological data were used to analyse annual fluctuations in water temperatures, thermocline depth, meteorological variables and S. We estimated that mean annual air and volume‐weighted water temperatures increased by 0.028 and 0.033 °C year^?1, respectively, from 1978 to 2011. Between 1986 and 1990, S and water temperature increased abruptly, probably due to a large upwards trend in air temperature (+0.239 °C year^?1). We hypothesize that a mixing regime that lacked overturn took effect at this time and that this regime lasted until 2011, when S was particularly small. These results demonstrate that abrupt climate warming in the late 1980s likely triggered the termination of complete mixing and caused the 21‐year period of successive anoxia in Lake Ikeda. We conclude that the lake response to a rapid shift in regional climate conditions was a key factor in changing the hypolimnetic water environment and that thermal stability in winter is a critical environmental factor controlling the mixing regime and anoxic conditions in deep lakes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Analysis of the hydrological response of a tropical terminal lake,Lake Abiyata (Main Ethiopian Rift Valley) to changes in climate and human activities     

Dagnachew Legesse  Christine Vallet‐Coulomb  Franoise Gasse 《水文研究》2004,18(3):487-504

Integrated dynamic water and chloride balance models with a catchment‐scale hydrological model (PRMS) are used to investigate the response of a terminal tropical lake, Lake Abiyata, to climate variability and water use practices in its catchment. The hydrological model is used to investigate the response of the catchment to different climate and land‐use change scenarios that are incorporated into the lake model. Lake depth–area–volume relationships were established from lake bathymetries. Missing data in the time series were filled using statistical regression techniques. Based on mean monthly data, the lake water balance model produced a good agreement between the simulated and observed levels of Lake Abiyata for the period 1968–83. From 1984 onwards the simulated lake level is overestimated with respect to the observed one, while the chloride concentration is largely underestimated. This discrepancy is attributed to human use of water from the influent rivers or directly from the lake. The simulated lake level and chloride concentration are in better agreement with observed values (r² = 0·96) when human water use for irrigation and salt exploitation are included in the model. A comparison of the simulation with and without human consumption indicates that climate variability controls the interannual fluctuations and that the human water use affects the equilibrium of the system by strongly reducing the lake level. Sensitivity analysis based on a mean climatic year showed that, after prolonged mean climatic conditions, Lake Abiyata reacts more rapidly to an abrupt shift to wetter conditions than to dry conditions. This study shows the significant sensitivity of the level and salinity of the terminal Lake Abiyata to small changes in climate or land use, making it a very good ‘recorder’ of environmental changes that may occur in the catchment at different time scales. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

洞庭湖近几十年来湖盆变化及冲淤特征   总被引：24，自引：5，他引：19  

姜加虎  黄群 《湖泊科学》2004,16(3):209-214

洞庭湖是我国著名的五大淡水湖泊之一,位于长江中游荆江段南岸,湖南省境内.历史时期,曾经是我国第一大淡水湖,直至新中国成立初期,湖泊面积仍然有4350km2,居我国淡水湖泊之首位.但由于洞庭湖承纳“四水”,吞吐长江,长江大量水沙涌入洞庭湖,造成了湖盆迅速淤高,加之由此诱发的人类大规模地湖泊垦殖活动,湖泊急剧萎缩.目前,洞庭湖已退居鄱阳湖之后,为我国第二大淡水湖泊.湖泊的严重泥沙淤积,已经造成了湖泊调蓄长江中游洪水功能的严重衰退,不但危及湖南省的防洪的安全,而且危及长江中下游地区的防洪安全,研究洞庭湖的湖盆冲淤演变具有重要意义.本文根据1974、1988和1998年洞庭湖125000水下地形资料,并针对洞庭湖具有显著上下游水位落差的实际,分不同高程和不同水位情况下,分析洞庭湖湖泊面积和容积演变特征,探讨洞庭湖近几十年来的湖盆变化及冲淤规律,试图揭示洞庭湖湖泊调蓄能力的变化过程.  相似文献   

Effect of permafrost thaw on the dynamics of lakes recharged by ice‐jam floods: case study of Yukon Flats,Alaska          下载免费PDF全文

Steven M. Jepsen  Michelle A. Walvoord  Clifford I. Voss  Jennifer Rover 《水文研究》2016,30(11):1782-1795

Large river floods are a key water source for many lakes in fluvial periglacial settings. Where permeable sediments occur, the distribution of permafrost may play an important role in the routing of floodwaters across a floodplain. This relationship is explored for lakes in the discontinuous permafrost of Yukon Flats, interior Alaska, using an analysis that integrates satellite‐derived gradients in water surface elevation, knowledge of hydrogeology, and hydrologic modelling. We observed gradients in water surface elevation between neighbouring lakes ranging from 0.001 to 0.004. These high gradients, despite a ubiquitous layer of continuous shallow gravel across the flats, are consistent with limited groundwater flow across lake basins resulting from the presence of permafrost. Permafrost impedes the propagation of floodwaters in the shallow subsurface and constrains transmission to ‘fill‐and‐spill’ over topographic depressions (surface sills), as we observed for the Twelvemile‐Buddy Lake pair following a May 2013 ice‐jam flood on the Yukon River. Model results indicate that permafrost table deepening of 1–11 m in gravel, depending on watershed geometry and subsurface properties, could shift important routing of floodwater to lakes from overland flow (fill‐and‐spill) to shallow groundwater flow (‘fill‐and‐seep’). Such a shift is possible in the next several hundred years of ground surface warming and may bring about more synchronous water level changes between neighbouring lakes following large flood events. This relationship offers a potentially useful tool, well suited to remote sensing, for identifying long‐term changes in shallow groundwater flow resulting from thawing of permafrost. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

巴丹吉林沙漠湖泊水化学空间分布特征   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5  

陆莹  王乃昂  李贵鹏  李卓仑  董春雨  路俊伟 《湖泊科学》2010,22(5):774-782

通过对巴丹吉林沙漠腹地拐子湖-地质公园一线51个湖泊水,8个泉水,12个井水及1个雨水水样的水化学成分分析,初步探讨了沙漠湖泊水化学分布特征及其影响因素.结果表明由东南边缘至腹地湖泊总体上依次呈硫酸盐型-碳酸盐型-氯化物型分布.东南边缘以Na+、Cl-、SO24-为主的湖泊因矿化度分异,形成Ca2+、Mg2+含量不同的三种亚型,其中高矿化度的Na-Cl-(SO4)型湖泊在腹地湖泊群中也有出现,表现出地理上的不连续分布;边缘若干湖泊受局部地理环境的影响水离子多含Na+、Cl-、CO32-+HCO3-.综合分析表明湖泊水化学型的空间分异与区域气候差异和气候变化有关,湖水直接或间接地接受当地降水补给,但不排除外源地下水补给对其有一定贡献.通过对比不同时段部分沙漠湖泊水化学特征发现近十年以来腹地湖泊补给源或受气候干暖化影响使其水化学特性较边缘湖泊的变化大.  相似文献   

Glacial lake depth and volume estimation based on a large bathymetric dataset from the Cordillera Blanca,Peru     

Randy Muñoz  Christian Huggel  Holger Frey  Alejo Cochachin  Wilfried Haeberli 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(7):1510-1527

Glacial lakes are most often located in remote places making it difficult to carry out detailed bathymetric surveys. Consequently, lake depths and volumes for unmeasured lakes are often estimated using empirical relationships developed mainly from small bathymetric datasets. In this study, we use the bathymetry dataset of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru comprising 121 detailed lake bathymetries, the most extensive dataset in the world. We assess the performance of the most commonly applied empirical relationships for lake mean depth and volume estimation, but also investigate relationships between different geometric lake variables. We find that lake volume estimation performs better when derived from lake mean depth, which in turn is estimated from lake width. The findings also reveal the extreme variability of lake geometry, which depends on glacio-geomorphological processes that empirical–statistical relationships cannot adequately represent. Such relationships involve characteristic uncertainty ranges of roughly ±50%. We also estimate potential peak discharges of outburst floods from these lakes by applying empirical relationships from the literature, which results in discharges varying by up to one-order of magnitude. Finally, the results are applied to the 860 lakes without bathymetric measurements from the inventory dataset of the Cordillera Blanca to estimate lake mean depth, volume and possible peak discharge for all unmeasured lakes. Estimations show that ca. 70% (610) of the lakes have a mean depth lower than 10 m and very few longer than 40 m. Lake volume of unmeasured lakes represent ca. 32% (5.18 × 10⁸ m³) of the total lake volume (1.15 × 10⁹ m³) in the Cordillera Blanca. Approximately, 50% of the lakes have potential peak discharges > 1000 m³/s in case of lake outburst floods, implying a need for additional studies for risk assessment. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

鄱阳湖洪泛区碟形湖湿地系统地表—地下水交互作用     

陈静  李云良  周俊锋  卢静媛  韦丽  郭玉银 《湖泊科学》2021,33(3):842-853

洪泛系统具有复杂动态的水文环境,在季节性洪水脉冲影响下,地表-地下水交互转化对洪泛区水循环和生态环境保护等方面具有重要意义.本文采用野外试验、统计分析和达西定律等研究方法,开展了鄱阳湖洪泛区碟形湖湿地系统(河流-洲滩湿地-碟形湖)地表-地下水文学特征、相互作用和交换通量研究.数据资料显示,在地形地貌影响下,研究区洲滩地下水位明显低于碟形湖水位,但总体上略高于周边河流水位,统计结果进一步表明,在控制洪泛湿地的地下水动态方面,河流水文情势变化对地下水的影响作用要强于碟形湖水文变化.就河流-地下水转化关系而言,研究区湿地系统的地下水与周边河流水体之间存在动态转化关系,地下水对河流的补给通量以及河流对地下水的补给通量分别约为0.4和0.2 m/d.就湖泊-地下水转化关系而言,碟形湖一般来说补给周边滩地的地下水系统,但两者之间的交换通量基本小于0.1 m/d.在年尺度上,研究区地表-地下水之间的累积交换通量变化约介于7.5~48.2 m/a,其中河流-地下水的累积交换通量约是碟形湖-地下水的4~7倍,且秋、冬季的累积交换通量要明显大于春、夏季.本文研究结果可为洪泛区河湖系统的水资源联合管理、水环境整治和生态环境保护等方面提供科学支撑.  相似文献   

Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land-cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed     

Heyin Chen 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(10):1739-1758

Abstract

Changes in climate and land cover are among the principal variables affecting watershed hydrology. This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic impacts of climate and land-cover changes in the semi-arid Lower Virgin River (LVR) watershed located upstream of Lake Mead, Nevada, USA. The cell-based model is developed by considering direct runoff based on the Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method and surplus runoff based on the Thornthwaite water balance theory. After calibration and validation, the model is used to predict LVR discharge under future climate and land-cover changes. The hydrologic simulation results reveal climate change as the dominant factor and land-cover change as a secondary factor in regulating future river discharge. The combined effects of climate and land-cover changes will slightly increase river discharge in summer but substantially decrease discharge in winter. This impact on water resources deserves attention in climate change adaptation planning.