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1.
鲁南地区地震活动性异常与苍山ML5.6级地震 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用《地震学分析预报方法程式指南》中的方法分析一鲁南地区的地震活动性异常，发现在苍山ＭＬ５．６级地震前，鲁南地区２３个月无ＭＬ≥２．５级地震；在１９８５年６月新泰ＭＬ４．１级地震以后，ＭＬ≥３．０级地震主要集中在新泰－苍山－莒县之间的三角地带。１９７４年以后沿苍尼断裂的ＭＬ≥３．０级地震都发生在５．６级地震震中附近。 相似文献
2.
１９９６年６～７月华北地区Ｍ_Ｌ≥３．０地震动态根据提供的资料，在华北地区（３３．０～４２．０°Ｎ，１１１．０～１２５．０°Ｅ）范围内，１９９６年６月份共发生ＭＬ≥３．０地震７次（见附表），无ＭＬ４以上地震发生。７月份共发生ＭＬ≥３．０地震６次（见附?.. 相似文献
3.
利用门限自回归原理对山西地区未来地震活动进行了预测。结果表明，山西地区至２０００年可能发生的最大地震的震级为ＭＬ５．３，而１９９７年可能发生的最大地震震级为ＭＬ４．１。认为，在该区未来几年内发生ＭＳ≥６．０地震的可能性不大。 相似文献
4.
利用１次中强以上地震（Ｍ０≥４．７）发生后前６天地震序列的资料，对未来半年内是否可能发生相当（Ｍ＝Ｍ０±０．３）或更大的地震进行模糊聚类分析．根据３６个初选问题的Ｗａｌｌｅｎ评分，精选出１３项能突出表现地震序列的特征参数作为指标．应用模糊聚类的ＦＣＭ算法对地震序列进行分类，Ⅰ类为Ｍ０级中强震后６个月内还有震级为Ｍ≥Ｍ０－０．３级的地震发生；Ⅱ类为Ｍ０级中强震后６个月内无相当或更大的地震。以中国大陆地区１９６６年以来的４８次Ｍ０≥４．７级中强震序列资料建立震后判别模型，然后对近期发生的８次强震序列进行了外推检验。 相似文献
5.
1995—1996年云南孟连西,武定,丽江三次强震前的地震活动背景性异常 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
分析了１９９５￣１９９６年发生的云南孟连西７．５级、武定以北６．５级和丽江以北７．０级三次强震前云南及邻近地区出现的地震活动背景性异常,包括地震空区、条带、小震群活动、地震窗口、诱发地震、强震原地复发以及迁移等特征。对地震活动期的分析表明,１９８８年澜沧－耿马地震后云南地区处于强震活动高潮期,１９９３年区内发生５．０￣６．３级地震７次,达到发生７级以上强震的预报指标。这些地震活动背景异常为这３次强 相似文献
6.
地震前兆异常的信度综合 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过对河北省及邻近地区１９８０－１９９７年地震前兆异常信度按时间进行合成,其结果对该地区ＭＳ≥５地震有较好的对应效果,再将前兆异常的信度视为时间和距离的函数,建立地震前兆异常综合信度的时空动态模型,并对１９７６年以来河北省及其邻近地区ＭＳ≥５地震进行检验,结果表明,地震均发生在前兆综合信度的高值区。对１９７９年７月９日江苏溧阳６．０级地震和１９８４年４月１８日云南禄劝６．３级地震进行检验,结果也较 相似文献
7.
云南普洱地区6级以上地震前的Y值异常特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本利用加卸载响应比方法研究了云南省普洱地区ＭＬ６．０级以上地震前的加卸载响应比随时间的变化，计算了这个地区近期的加卸载响应比，结果显示，普洱地区６级以上地震前Ｙ值出现明显异常，近期的Ｙ值显异常，表明该地区或在以其为中心方圆１００－２００公里的区域内在１９９５年或稍长时间内发生６．０级以上的地震的可能性很大。 相似文献
8.
收集了自１９８９年至１９９３年１０月天津及其附近地区发生的ＭＬ≥４．０地震和大同地区发生的中强地震共２１次，经统计计算认为：天津台网对唐山地区发生的地震反映能力较强，北京地区次之，对大同地区发生的中强地震的一定的反映能力，其综合映震能力为６１．９％，可预报能力为２３．８％，异常对应能力不超过５５．７％，观测项目综合灵敏度为２４％，对天津及其附近地区发生的中等地震仅可能有３．１７％观测项目产生异常。 相似文献
9.
北京顺义4.0级地震和震后首都圈地震趋势分析 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
１９９６年１２月１６日顺义Ｍｓ４．０地震，是北京地区近６ａ来最大的一次地震活动此次地震前，首都圈地区地震活动出现了近ＳＮ向弱震活动，１１月份地震活动是全的月频次最低的月份，这些异常现象之后发生了顺义地震。此次顺义地震属非前生震群活动。这次地震活动是顺义及其附近地区１９７０年以来地震活动余震最多的一次。这次地震后应注意今后几个月京西北、张家口附近发生Ｍｓ５．０左右地震的可能。 相似文献
10.
１９９７年１－５月新疆伽师发生Ｍｓ５．０－６．６地震１４次。在１月２１日之后发生的１２次Ｍｓ〉５．０地震中,有５次地震震前出现了序列异常平现象。说明就此次伽师强震群而言,小震异常平静物征确实具有较了的临震预报效能。 相似文献
11.
Michael O. Garcia Diane Hanano Ashton Flinders Dominique Weis Garrett Ito Mark D. Kurz 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(6):1445-1463
The size, shape, and magmatic history of the most recently discovered shield volcano in the Hawaiian Islands, Mahukona, have been controversial. Mahukona corresponds to what was thought to be a gap in the paired sequence (Loa and Kea trends) of younger Hawaiian volcanoes (<4?Ma). Here, we present the results of marine expeditions to Mahukona where new bathymetry, sidescan sonar, gravity data, and lava samples were collected to address these controversies. Modeling of bathymetric and gravity data indicate that Mahukona is one of the smallest Hawaiian volcanoes (～6,000?km3) and that its magmatic system was not focused in a long-lived central reservoir like most other Hawaiian volcanoes. This lack of a long-lived magmatic reservoir is reflected by the absence of a central residual gravity high and the random distribution of cones on Mahukona Volcano. Our reconstructed subsidence history for Mahukona suggests it grew to at least ～270?m below sea level but probably did not form an island. New 40Ar–39Ar plateau ages range from 350 to 654?ka providing temporal constraints for Mahukona’s post-shield and shield stages of volcanism, which ended prematurely. Mahukona post-shield lavas have high 3He/4He ratios (16–21?Ra), which have not been observed in post-shield lavas from other Hawaiian volcanoes. Lava compositions range widely at Mahukona, including Pb isotopic values that straddle the boundary between Kea and Loa sequences of volcanoes. The compositional diversity of Mahukona lavas may be related to its relatively small size (less extensive melting) and the absence of a central magma reservoir where magmas would have been homogenized. 相似文献
12.
In this study, we have checked the location and focal depth of the Yecheng earthquake (m b = 6.0, maximum intensity VII) of February 14, 1980. The result shows that this is an intermediate event with a focal depth of 90 km. The microepicenter is located at 36. 4°N, 76, 9°E, while the macroepicenter is at 37.3°N, 76.9°E, 90 km to the north of the microepicenter. This is the first destructive intermediate event in China which led to a damage as severe as of intensity VII. The focal mechanism of the event is determined to be of thrust type. Combined with the analysis of seismological and geological data in surrounding area, the possible relation between the event and plate movement has been discussed. The result in this paper indicates that in some particular place, the destructive effect of intermediate event should be considered in seismic hazard assessment. 相似文献
13.
Earthquake of November 30, 2004, in Podhale region, southern Poland, was of unexpectedly big size in this area of weak seismicity.
As Poland is considered a country of low seismicity, the earthquake has caused concern about seismic hazard in Poland, especially
since it took place shortly after the even more unexpected Kaliningrad Region, Russia, earthquakes of September 21, 2004,
that inflicted minor damage in northern Poland. The paper presents the findings on the Podhale earthquake which reached macroseismic
intensity up to 7 and magnitude 4.7 (m
b
; ISC). The event was felt up to a distance of about 100 km and inflicted slight damage to buildings in its narrow epicentral
area, thus evidencing its relatively shallow depth. The quake has been located near the village of Skrzypne, about 15 km west-southwest
of the district capital Nowy Targ. The source mechanism has been found to be of dip slip normal fault type, although a problem
remains of association of this mechanism with known tectonic dislocations in the region. The earthquake has been followed
by a long series of aftershocks. Their distribution in time is also studied and the biggest aftershocks have been located. 相似文献
14.
15.
Drop calorimetry measurements between 900 and 1850 K are reported for amorphous anorthite, andesine, wollastonite, diopside, cordierite and pyrope. The isobaric heat capacities of the glassy and liquid phases of these materials, and the enthalpies of fusion of the minerals have been derived. The calorimetric entropies of fusion of these substances and of other oxide minerals are generally consistent with the calculated volume changes on melting and with the observed pressure dependences of the melting points. The thermodynamics of mixing of liquid plagioclases have been examined, and it is concluded that their enthalpies of mixing are markedly different from the values derived directly from solution calorimetry measurements at 985 K. 相似文献
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17.
In this study, we experimentally established the relationship between physical properties, vitrinite reflectance, and microstructure of coal, Taiyuan Formation, Qinshui Basin, China using representative coal samples collected from three different mines via the rock mechanics testing system (MTS). We analyzed the organic macerals, vitrinite reflectance, and microstructure of 11 coal samples using petrography and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The experimental results suggest that (1) the elastic parameters can be described by linear equations, (2) both P-and S-wave velocities display anisotropy, (3) the anisotropy negatively correlates with vitrinite reflectance, and (4) the acoustic velocities and Young’s modulus are negatively correlated with the volume of micropores. The derived empirical equations can be used in the forward modeling and seismic inversion of physical properties of coal for improving the coal-bed methane (CBM) reservoir characterization. 相似文献
18.
Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty,non-stationarity,likelihood, hypothesis testing,and communication 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Keith Beven 《水文科学杂志》2016,61(9):1652-1665
ABSTRACTThis paper presents a discussion of some of the issues associated with the multiple sources of uncertainty and non-stationarity in the analysis and modelling of hydrological systems. Different forms of aleatory, epistemic, semantic, and ontological uncertainty are defined. The potential for epistemic uncertainties to induce disinformation in calibration data and arbitrary non-stationarities in model error characteristics, and surprises in predicting the future, are discussed in the context of other forms of non-stationarity. It is suggested that a condition tree is used to be explicit about the assumptions that underlie any assessment of uncertainty. This also provides an audit trail for providing evidence to decision makers.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Weijs 相似文献
19.
Abu Sayeed Shafiuddin Ahmed Mohammad Belal Hossain Saad Mohammad Omar Faruque Babu Moshiur Rahman Jun Sun Mohammad Shafiqul Islam Sarker 《国际泥沙研究》2022,37(1):83-96
Sediment samples from the Gomti River basin were investigated to determine and evaluate trace metal concentrations,their biological effect,and potential ecological and human health risks for adults and children.The mean concentrations of trace metals were organized in the descending order of mercury(Hg)(0.08 mg/kg)>chromium(Cr)(0.06 mg/kg)>lead(Pb)(0.05 mg/kg)>arsenic(As)(0.02 mg/kg)>cadmium(Cd)(0.01 mg/kg).The current study illustrated that metals were attributed to the area from natural sources and different anthropogenic sources especially from industries.However,the concentration levels were lower than the sediment quality guidelines(SQGs)based on the effect-range classifications of threshold effect concentration(TEC)and probable effect concentration(PEC).Therefore,the concentration of the elements showed no adverse biological effects on aquatic organisms.The evaluated potential ecological risk index also revealed the low toxicity to the aquatic environment.Moreover,the applied sediment quality indices,geo-accumulation index(Igeo),contamination factor(CF),and contamination severity index(CSI)suggested that the contamination levels of the elements were in the acceptable range,and the contamination had not notably impacted on the sediment quality.The risk index(HI)concerning age groups was significantly less than the threshold limit of 1 indicating that the contamination had no non-carcinogenic risk effect.The total carcinogenic risk(TCR)was less than a risk value of 1×104.Hence,the current study suggests that immediate remediation is not required due to an absence of alarming conditions in the study area.Proper monitoring of the attribution of the metal elements should be done for the betterment of human and environmental health。 相似文献