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1.
LIU JiPing State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences Geophysical Fluid Dynamics 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2010,(6)
The impacts of the spatiotemporal variations of sea ice salinity on sea ice and ocean characteristics have not been studied in detail, as the existing climate models neglect or misrepresent this process. To address this issue, this paper formulated a parameterization with more realistic sea ice salinity budget, and examined the sensitivity of sea ice and ocean simulations to the ice salinity variations and associated salt flux into the ocean using a coupled global climate model. Results show that the inclus... 相似文献
2.
J. A. Johannessen R. P. Raj J. E. Ø. Nilsen T. Pripp P. Knudsen F. Counillon D. Stammer L. Bertino O. B. Andersen N. Serra N. Koldunov 《Surveys in Geophysics》2014,35(3):661-679
The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and shows significant sensitivity to anthropogenic climate forcing and the ongoing climate change. Accelerated changes in the Arctic are already observed, including elevated air and ocean temperatures, declines of the summer sea ice extent and sea ice thickness influencing the albedo and CO2 exchange, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and increased thawing of surrounding permafrost regions. In turn, the hydrological cycle in the high latitude and Arctic is expected to undergo changes although to date it is challenging to accurately quantify this. Moreover, changes in the temperature and salinity of surface waters in the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas may also influence the flow of dense water through the Denmark Strait, which are found to be a precursor for changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation with a lead time of around 10 years (Hawkins and Sutton in Geophys Res Lett 35:L11603, 2008). Evidently changes in the Arctic and surrounding seas have far reaching influences on regional and global environment and climate variability, thus emphasizing the need for advanced quantitative understanding of the ocean circulation and transport variability in the high latitude and Arctic Ocean. In this respect, this study combines in situ hydrographical data, surface drifter data and direct current meter measurements, with coupled sea ice–ocean models, radar altimeter data and the latest GOCE-based geoid in order to estimate and assess the quality, usefulness and validity of the new GOCE-derived mean dynamic topography for studies of the ocean circulation and transport estimates in the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean. 相似文献
3.
We investigate the transient response of the global coupled ocean?Catmosphere system to enhanced freshwater forcing representative of melting of the Greenland ice sheets. A 50-year long simulation by a coupled atmosphere?Cocean general circulation model (CGCM) is compared with another of the same length in which Greenland melting is prescribed. To highlight the importance of coupled atmosphere?Cocean processes, the CGCM results are compared with those of two other experiments carried out with the oceanic general circulation model (OGCM). In one of these OGCM experiments, the prescribed surface fluxes of heat, momentum and freshwater correspond to the unperturbed simulation by the CGCM; in the other experiment, Greenland melting is added to the freshwater flux. The responses by the CGCM and OGCM to the Greenland melting have similar patterns in the Atlantic, albeit the former having five times larger amplitudes in sea surface height anomalies. The CGCM shows likewise stronger variability in all state variables in all ocean basins because the impact of Greenland melting is quickly communicated to all ocean basins via atmospheric bridges. We conclude that the response of the global climate to Greenland ice melting is highly dependent on coupled atmosphere?Cocean processes. These lead to reduced latent heat flux into the atmosphere and an associated increase in net freshwater flux into the ocean, especially in the subpolar North Atlantic. The combined result is a stronger response of the coupled system to Greenland ice sheet melting. 相似文献
4.
Sequence stratigraphic studies consider relative change in sea level (as regulated by eustasy, local tectonics and sediment supply) as the main builder of the stratigraphic record. Eustasy has generally been considered as a consequence of the growth and decay of continental ice sheets that would explain large, rapid changes in sea level, even during periods of relative global climatic warmth. However, such a mechanism has become increasingly difficult to envision during times of extreme global warmth such as the Turonian, when the equator-to-pole temperature gradient was very low and the presence of polar ice seems improbable. This paper investigates the timing and extent of sea level falls during the late Cenomanian through Turonian, especially the largest of those events, sequence boundary KTu4, which occurred during the middle to late Turonian peak of the Cretaceous hot greenhouse climate. We conclude that the amplitude of the widespread third-order sea level fall in the middle Turonian that is centered at ~91.8 Ma varies at different locations depending on the influence of dynamic topography on local tectonics and regional climatic conditions. Ice volume variations seem unlikely as a mechanism for controlling sea level at this time. However, this causal factor cannot be ruled out completely since Antarctic highlands (if they existed in the Late Cretaceous) could sequester enough water as ice to cause eustatic falls. To ascertain this requires detailed tomographic imaging of Antarctica, followed by geodynamic modeling, to determine whether high plateaus could have existed to accumulate ephemeral ice sheets. Other mechanisms for sea level change, such as transference between ground water (a small amplitude shorter time scale effect) and the ocean and entrainment and release of water from the mantle to the oceanic reservoir (a potentially large amplitude and longer time scale process), are intriguing and need to be explored further to prove their efficacy at third-order time scales. 相似文献
5.
P. Huybrechts H. Goelzer I. Janssens E. Driesschaert T. Fichefet H. Goosse M.-F. Loutre 《Surveys in Geophysics》2011,32(4-5):397-416
Calculations were performed with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM to study the response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sustained multi-millennial greenhouse warming. Use was made of fully dynamic 3D thermomechanical ice-sheet models bidirectionally coupled to an atmosphere and an ocean model. Two 3,000-year experiments were evaluated following forcing scenarios with atmospheric CO2 concentration increased to two and four times the pre-industrial value, and held constant thereafter. In the high concentration scenario the model shows a sustained mean annual warming of up to 10°C in both polar regions. This leads to an almost complete disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet after 3,000 years, almost entirely caused by increased surface melting. Significant volume loss of the Antarctic ice sheet takes many centuries to initiate due to the thermal inertia of the Southern Ocean but is equivalent to more than 4 m of global sea-level rise by the end of simulation period. By that time, surface conditions along the East Antarctic ice sheet margin take on characteristics of the present-day Greenland ice sheet. West Antarctic ice shelves have thinned considerably from subshelf melting and grounding lines have retreated over distances of several 100 km, especially for the Ross ice shelf. In the low concentration scenario, corresponding to a local warming of 3?C4°C, polar ice-sheet melting proceeds at a much lower rate. For the first 1,200 years, the Antarctic ice sheet is even slightly larger than today on account of increased accumulation rates but contributes positively to sea-level rise after that. The Greenland ice sheet loses mass at a rate equivalent to 35 cm of global sea level rise during the first 1,000 years increasing to 150 cm during the last 1,000 years. For both scenarios, ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet is still accelerating after 3,000 years despite a constant greenhouse gas forcing after the first 70?C140 years of the simulation. 相似文献
6.
南极冰盖冰雪质量变化反映了全球气候变化,并且直接影响着全球海平面变化.ICESat测高卫星的主要任务之一就是要确定南北两极冰盖的质量变化情况并评估其对全球海平面变化的影响.本文利用2003年10月至2008年12月的ICESat测高数据,针对南极DEM分辨率有限的特殊性,通过求解坡度改正值,解决重复轨道地面脚点不重合的问题,计算了南极大陆(86°S以北区域,后文所述南极冰盖均不包括86°S以南区域)在这5年里的冰雪质量变化情况,得到东南极冰盖的质量变化为-18±20Gt/a,西南极-26±6Gt/a,南极冰盖的冰雪质量变化为-44±21Gt/a,对全球海平面上升的影响约为0.12mm·a~(-1).解算结果表明,南极冰盖质量亏损主要集中在西南极阿蒙森海岸附近冰川以及东南极波因塞特角区域. 相似文献
7.
Global mean sea level is a sensitive factor of climate change. Global warming will contribute to worldwide sea‐level rise from thermal expansion of ocean water, melting of glaciers and polar ice. Consideration of global soil erosion, water vapor cycle, and hydraulic actions suggests that soil erosion is another important factor contributing to sea‐level rise in addition to global warming. Much terrestrial sediment flows into the rivers each year but cannot be replenished, resulting in land surface declines. Moreover, sediment flow into rivers and oceans contributes to rising sea level. Ecological protection measure was proposed to prevent rising sea levels caused by soil erosion. This commentary should be useful to attract attention on rising sea levels caused by soil erosion. 相似文献
8.
人类活动引起全球变暖,衡量全球气候变化的指标有陆地、大气和海洋温度,水汽含量等等.研究对流层底层大气温度和水汽含量变化的传统方法是用数值天气预报模型和微波声纳,尚未实现用全球均匀覆盖的数据来做精确的定量研究.和GNSS系列卫星计划比较,最近发射的COSMIC卫星气象探测数据的空间、时间以及垂直分辨率都大大提高.采用COSMIC数据可以改进和量化南极洲的大气压力模型,并综合GNSS系列卫星测量的水汽和温度剖面研究全球气候变化.用一维协方差算法估计南极洲及附近海洋的大气压、温度和湿度剖面.把COSMIC卫星密集测量期间演算得到的大气折射率和GNSS系列卫星的结果进行比较.再和独立测量数据进行比较,包括南极洲自动气象观测站资料,数值天气预报模型资料,多种测高卫星水汽资料和海洋表面温度资料以及区域GPS水汽图.上述工作将改进发展中的气象遥感技术并应用于天气预报和空间天气预报及全球气候变化研究. 相似文献
9.
雷达卫星SAR与防卫气象卫星SSM/I对渤海海冰的观测研究 总被引：11，自引：1，他引：11
用雷达卫星(RADARSAT)合成孔径雷达(SAR)和防卫气象卫星(DMSP)特别微波成像辐射计(SSM/I)在1999年1月23日同一天对中国渤海区域海冰的观测数据，进行了主动SAR与被动SSM/I的组合研究.用一层海冰电磁散射辐射的建模与数值模拟，分析了中纬度渤海沿岸海冰的特征性变化，提出用SSM/I辐射亮度温度的散射指数、极化指数、极化比率来识别渤海海冰；用RADARSAT高分辨率SAR数据(水平极化后向散射系数)对渤海海冰物理特征进行识别与分类.这些特征指数在时间与空间尺度上的相关变化可有效地应用于渤海海冰的监察. 相似文献
10.
Patrick C. Taylor 《Surveys in Geophysics》2012,33(3-4):609-617
This paper presents an overview of discussions during the Cloud’s Role session at the Observing and Modelling Earth’s Energy Flows Workshop. N. Loeb and B. Soden convened this session including 10 presentations by B. Stevens, B. Wielicki, G. Stephens, A. Clement, K. Sassen, D. Hartmann, T. Andrews, A. Del Genio, H. Barker, and M. Sugi addressing critical aspects of the role of clouds in modulating Earth energy flows. Presentation topics covered a diverse range of areas from cloud microphysics and dynamics, cloud radiative transfer, and the role of clouds in large-scale atmospheric circulations patterns in both observations and atmospheric models. The presentations and discussions, summarized below, are organized around several key questions raised during the session. (1) What is the best way to evaluate clouds in climate models? (2) How well do models need to represent clouds to be acceptable for making climate predictions? (3) What are the largest uncertainties in clouds? (4) How can these uncertainties be reduced? (5) What new observations are needed to address these problems? Answers to these critical questions are the topics of ongoing research and will guide the future direction of this area of research. 相似文献
11.
本文描述了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)最新发展的一个耦合气候系统模式的基本性能. 该模式是在LASG灵活的全球耦合气候系统模式（英文缩写为FGCM）的初始版本FGCM-0的基础上发展而来的,是该系列耦合模式的第二个版本，即FGCM-1.0. FGCM-1.0通过一个通量耦合器将大气、海洋和海冰三个分量模式耦合在一起，其中海洋分量模式是LASG发展的一个涡相容分辨率（eddy-permitting）全球海洋环流模式，大气和海冰分量模式则为美国国家大气研究中心（NCAR）的大气环流模式CAM2和海冰模式CSIM4. 耦合模式完整地考虑了海气界面上的动量、热量和淡水通量交换，尽管在模式中没有使用任何形式的人为的通量调整或者通量距平方案，模式还是比较合理地模拟出基本的气候形态. 通过对该耦合模式长期积分结果的进一步分析发现，模式能够比较好地模拟出厄尔尼诺－南方涛动（ENSO）以及印度洋偶极子事件的基本特征；与FGCM系列耦合模式的最初版本FGCM-0相比，FGCM-1.0模拟的北赤道逆流（NECC）和ENSO循环更加真实. 相似文献
12.
Timo Vihma 《Surveys in Geophysics》2014,35(5):1175-1214
The areal extent, concentration and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas have strongly decreased during the recent decades, but cold, snow-rich winters have been common over mid-latitude land areas since 2005. A review is presented on studies addressing the local and remote effects of the sea ice decline on weather and climate. It is evident that the reduction in sea ice cover has increased the heat flux from the ocean to atmosphere in autumn and early winter. This has locally increased air temperature, moisture, and cloud cover and reduced the static stability in the lower troposphere. Several studies based on observations, atmospheric reanalyses, and model experiments suggest that the sea ice decline, together with increased snow cover in Eurasia, favours circulation patterns resembling the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation. The suggested large-scale pressure patterns include a high over Eurasia, which favours cold winters in Europe and northeastern Eurasia. A high over the western and a low over the eastern North America have also been suggested, favouring advection of Arctic air masses to North America. Mid-latitude winter weather is, however, affected by several other factors, which generate a large inter-annual variability and often mask the effects of sea ice decline. In addition, the small sample of years with a large sea ice loss makes it difficult to distinguish the effects directly attributable to sea ice conditions. Several studies suggest that, with advancing global warming, cold winters in mid-latitude continents will no longer be common during the second half of the twenty-first century. Recent studies have also suggested causal links between the sea ice decline and summer precipitation in Europe, the Mediterranean, and East Asia. 相似文献
13.
Global coupled climate models are generally capable of reproducing the observed trends in the globally averaged atmospheric
temperature. However, the global models do not perform as well on regional scales. Here, we present results from a 20-year,
high-resolution ocean model experiment for the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. The atmospheric forcing is taken from the final
20 years of a twentieth-century control run with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. The ocean model results
from the regional ocean model are validated using observations of hydrography from repeat cruises in the Barents Sea. Validation
is performed for average quantities and for probability distributions in space and time. The validation results reveal that,
though the regional model is forced by a coupled global model that has a noticeable sea ice bias in the Barents Sea, the hydrography
and its variability are reproduced with an encouraging quality. We attribute this improvement to the realistic transport of
warm, salty waters into the Barents Sea in the regional model. These lateral fluxes in the ocean are severely underestimated
by the global model. The added value with the regional model that we have documented here lends hope to advance the quality
of oceanic climate change impact studies. 相似文献
14.
GCM-based forecast simulations predict continuously increasing seasonality of the sea ice cover and an almost ice-free, summer-time, Arctic Ocean within several decades from the present. In this study we use a primitive equation ocean model: NEMO, coupled with the sea ice model LIM2, to test the hypothesis that under such an increased range in seasonal ice cover the intensity of shelf-basin water exchange will significantly increase. We use the simulated results for the Laptev Sea from a global model run 1958–2007 and compare results for two years with anomalously high and low summer sea ice extents: 1986–1987 and 2006–2007. The shelf–basin fluxes of volume, heat and salt during specific seasons are evaluated and attributed to plausible driving processes, with particular attention to dense water cascading. Analyses of the model temperature distribution at the depth of the intermediate maximum, associated with Atlantic Water, have shown a marked increase of the amount of the local origin cold water in late winter 2007 in the region, where dense water typically appears as a result of its formation on the shelf and subsequent downslope leakage. Calculation of the shelf-basin exchange during March-May in both years confirmed a substantial increase (a factor of two) of fluxes in “ice-free” 2007 compared to the “icy” 1987. According to several past model studies, dense water production on Arctic shelves in winter driven by ice freezing and brine rejection is not likely to cease in a warmer climate, but rather to increase. There is also observational evidence that cascading in the seasonally ice covered seas (e.g. the Barents Sea) is much more efficient than it is in the permanently ice covered Arctic Ocean, which supports these model results. 相似文献
15.
海平面变化是全球气候系统变化的一个组成部分,是环境变化的重要指标,也会影响沿海区域及岛屿的生态环境甚至存亡.全球海平面变化由海水质量变化和比容海平面变化构成.海水质量变化主要是由于两极冰盖和高山区的冰川融化流入海洋所致;比容海平面变化是由海水的温度和盐度变化所引起的,其中温度变化是最主要的因素.本文介绍了海平面变化各种监测技术的发展过程,并对海平面变化的研究现状进行了总结.所有研究成果均表明,近100多年以来,全球海平面一直处于上升态势;近几十年以来,海平面呈现加快上升并且越来越快的趋势.目前仍然存在一些问题:人们还没有完全掌握海平面变化规律,对未来海平面变化预测有较大不确定性;深海缺乏实测数据;厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)的变化规律以及对海平面的影响;GRACE陆地与海洋信号无法完全分离以及GRACE与GRACE-FO之间的一致性分析等.这些问题都需要进一步开展研究. 相似文献
16.
年代际预测是近年来气候变化研究的一个迅速发展的新兴热点领域,其首要步骤是进行初始化,目的是为年代际预测提供包含观测变率信息的初值.发展效果好且省时的初始化方法是年代际预测的重大挑战之一,目前国际上主流的初始化方法是耦合资料同化,即在耦合模式框架下进行同化.在年代际预测时,由于模式偏差和初始化方法性能的限制会产生初始冲击问题.目前国际上的各模式机构普遍对北大西洋、热带东西太平洋和印度洋海表温度的年代际预测水平高,而对全球平均近地面气温和北太平洋海表温度的年代际预测水平相对较差.本文主要从初始化方法和年代际预测这两方面的研究现状进行全面回顾,指出存在的问题并讨论未来的发展趋势和挑战. 相似文献
17.
TIAN Jun 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2013,56(12):2160-2172
The Milankovi theory stresses that the summer insolation in the high northern latitudes that is dominated by the precession cycle controls the glacial/interglacial cycles in global climate change.If the climate system responds linearly to the external insolation forcing,the precession cycle of 23 or 19 ka should dominate the variations in the climatic proxy records.I performed spectral and evolutive cross spectral analyses on the high resolution benthic 18O and 13C records from the South China Sea and the North Atlantic,the proxies of global ice volume and ocean carbon reservoir respectively.I found that the obliquity instead of the eccentricity or the precession is the most marked cycle in the global ice volume and ocean carbon reservoir variations over the past 5 Ma.The analysis further reveals that only at the obliquity band instead of the eccentricity or the precession band does the global ice volume and ocean carbon reservoir display consistently high coherency and stable phase relationship over the past 5 Ma.The consistently positive or near-zero phases of the benthic 18O relative to the benthic13C at the obliquity band suggest that the global carbon cycle is involved in the polar ice sheet growth as an important internal feedback,not a determinative driving factor.The obliquity instead of the precession or the eccentricity takes the dominant role of driving the global climate change during the Pliocene and Pleistocene. 相似文献
18.
Warming in Arctic intermediate and deep waters around Chukchi Plateau and its adjacent regions in 1999 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
ZHAO Jinping GAO Guoping & JIAO Yutian . First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao China . Ocean University of China Qingdao China 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2005,48(8):1312-1320
Warming in the Arctic Intermediate Water (AIW) has been reported in a series of articles in recent years. Prior to 1992, the water temperature of AIW off the Chukchi Continental Slope had never exceeded 0.5℃. Aagaard et al.[1] and Carmack[2] were the first to report that the temperature in AIW in the area in 1993 was close to 1℃, based on the data observed in a Canadian expedition. In 1994, the temperature of AIW around the Chukchi Sea and Mendeleyev Ridge again rose by at least an… 相似文献
19.
冰川均衡调整对固体地球物理学、大地测量学、地貌学、海洋学、冰川学、气候变化、水资源、天文学和考古学等学科具有重要的意义,通过其综述性介绍,以吸引我国地学界的注意和兴趣.本文结合作者和国内外研究成果,全方位地阐述了冰川均衡调整研究的完整内涵,首先给出了冰川均衡调整的完整概念,探讨了冰川均衡调整对冰后地壳运动、全球海平面变化、地球重力场、地球旋转运动和应力状态的影响,再分析了冰川均衡调整研究的科学目标和冰川均衡调整研究的历史与现状,最后指出了冰川均衡调整研究的未来发展方向. 相似文献
20.
为研究近期21年(1989—2009年)北极地区海冰变化原因,本文利用欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA-Interim数据集资料和美国麻省理工学院MITgcm全球海冰-海洋耦合模式开展了不同大气强迫条件下海冰变化的数值模拟研究.研究工作中共设计了6个数值试验,除1个试验全部采用1989—2009年每日4个时次的大气强迫场外,其余5个试验各有一种大气强迫(地表气温、地表大气比湿、向下短波辐射通量、向下长波辐射通量和地表风)采用1989年月平均结果.分析了各模拟试验结果中3月和9月北极地区海冰面积的年际变化特征及最小二乘拟合意义下的线性变化趋势,并以ERA-Interim结果为参照标准对各模拟试验结果进行了对比和检验,以说明不同大气强迫量变率对海冰变化的作用.结果表明:地表气温变率和向下长波辐射通量变率是造成海冰面积减少的主要原因;向下短波辐射通量变率对海冰面积变化影响几乎可以忽略;地表大气比湿变率对海冰面积线性变化趋势影响较小,但对海冰面积年际变化特征有调制作用;地表风变率对海冰季节变化、海冰面积线性变化趋势及年际变化特征均有明显影响,说明提高大气风应力精度是改善海冰数值模拟结果的重要手段. 相似文献