首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 288 毫秒
1.
Regional climate model (RCM) is a valuable scientific tool to address the mechanisms of regional atmospheric systems such as the West African monsoon (WAM). This study aims to improve our understanding of the impact of some physical schemes of RCM on the WAM representation. The weather research and forecasting model has been used by performing six simulations of the 2006 summer WAM season. These simulations use all combinations of three convective parameterization schemes (CPSs) and two planetary boundary layer schemes (PBLSs). By comparing the simulations to a large set of observations and analysis products, we have evaluated the ability of these RCM parameterizations to reproduce different aspects of the regional atmospheric circulation of the WAM. This study focuses in particular on the WAM onset and the rainfall variability simulated over this domain. According to the different parameterizations tested, the PBLSs seem to have the strongest effect on temperature, humidity vertical distribution and rainfall amount. On the other hand, dynamics and precipitation variability are strongly influenced by CPSs. In particular, the Mellor?CYamada?CJanjic PBLS attributes more realistic values of humidity and temperature. Combined with the Kain?CFritsch CPS, the WAM onset is well represented. The different schemes combination tested also reveal the role of different regional climate features on WAM dynamics, namely the low level circulation, the land?Catmosphere interactions and the meridional temperature gradient between the Guinean coast and the Sahel.  相似文献   

2.
A regional climate model (RCM) constrained by future anomalies averaged from atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations is used to generate mid-twenty-first century climate change predictions at 30-km resolution over the central U.S. The predictions are compared with those from 15 AOGCM and 7 RCM dynamic downscaling simulations to identify common climate change signals. There is strong agreement among the multi-model ensemble in predicting wetter conditions in April and May over the northern Great Plains and drier conditions over the southern Great Plains in June through August for the mid-twenty-first century. Projected changes in extreme daily precipitation are statistically significant over only a limited portion of the central U.S. in the RCM constrained with future anomalies. Projected changes in monthly mean 2-m air temperature are generally consistent across the AOGCM ensemble average, North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program RCM ensemble average, and RCM constrained with future anomalies, which produce a maximum increase in August of 2.4–2.9 K over the northern and southern Great Plains and Midwest. Changes in extremes in daily 2-m air temperature from the RCM downscaled with anomalies are statistically significant over nearly the entire Great Plains and Midwest and indicate a positive shift in the warm tail of the daily 2-m temperature distribution that is larger than the positive shift in the cold tail.  相似文献   

3.
利用ACTIVE（aerosol and chemical transport in tropical convection）试验资料,取2006年1月20日澳大利亚北部达尔文岛附近发生的一次飑线强对流天气的AE17航次和2006年1月27日无对流天气的AE21航次飞行路径中的探测资料,对澳大利亚达尔文地区夏季风盛行期间发生的有无强对流发生时O3和CO浓度垂直分布变化进行对比,考察强对流性天气发生对O3和CO浓度垂直输送作用。深对流云内强烈的垂直上升运动将O3和CO等化学气体携带输送至对流层上部并在对流层顶堆积,从而在对流层上部产生浓度峰值。当有强对流发生,飞机进入对流云上层时,O3浓度和CO浓度升高,O3和CO浓度变率增大,在对流层上部浓度出现峰值;当飞机飞出对流云时,O3和CO浓度相对较低,在对流云外出现谷值。在无对流发生的条件下O3和CO浓度相对较小,浓度变率也较小,无峰值产生。分析表明:O3和CO浓度分布不仅与强对流的垂直输送作用关系密切,且与气象要素垂直和水平分布以及动力输送过程密切相关。  相似文献   

4.
The vertical structures of atmospheric temperature anomalies associated with El Nio are simulated with a spectrum atmospheric general circulation model developed by LASG/IAP (SAMIL). Sensitivity of the model’s response to convection scheme is discussed. Two convection schemes, i.e., the revised Zhang and Macfarlane (RZM) and Tiedtke (TDK) convection schemes, are employed in two sets of AMIP-type (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) SAMIL simulations, respectively. Despite some deficiencies in the up...  相似文献   

5.
This study examines the time–height variation and structure of a tropical mesoscale convective system (TMCS). Convection experiments using VHF (53 MHz) radar aimed at improving the understanding of the vertical structure of TMCS occurred over Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E), India during 21–22 June 2000 has been selected for the study. The time–height variations of reflectivity and vertical velocity exhibits four distinct patterns and have been used to classify four subjectively identified types of echoes; viz., formative, mature, transition zone and stratiform regions associated with TMCS. Average vertical velocity profiles were distinctive for each region. The mean vertical motion is upward at all levels in the troposphere during the formative phase. The vertical motion in the mature region is downward in the lower troposphere and upward in the middle and upper troposphere. The maximum upward motion is found in the middle troposphere and secondary maxima near the tropopause level. The transition zone is characterized by strong downdraft in the lower troposphere with local pockets of updrafts in the middle and upper troposphere. The magnitude of the mean vertical motion is considerably reduced in the stratiform region and is downward in the lower troposphere and upward in the upper troposphere. Time–height variation of reflectivity has been analyzed separately for each region. The observed diminished echo zone and tropopause break/weakening during the mature phase and two enhanced reflectivity zone in the stratiform region is also observed. A Cloud System Resolving Model (CSRM) simulation of the same event has been carried out. The CSRM simulations were able to capture the structure of the storm and are consistent with the observations. The model output in conjunction with observations has been used to validate the hypothesis.  相似文献   

6.
针对GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)模式三维变分系统高层背景场温湿廓线外推方案的局限性,提出以气候垂直廓线重新构造高层温湿垂直结构,以减小外推方案的偏差。首先采用一维变分同化系统,展开模拟实验:分析目前模式中使用的外推方案误差及其对反演结果的影响,利用高层大气气候廓线构造垂直结构并分析同化偏差。最后,运用GRAPES全球分析预报系统进行同化实验并分析改进程度。结果显示:模拟研究表明采用高层背景场温湿廓线外推方案与实际观测相比最大偏差在1 h Pa附近可达数十度以上,不仅影响平流层,而且对对流层也有影响;用气候温度数据修正GRAPES高层温度数据,可以减少50%以上的偏差,证明了用气候值高层数据优化现行GRAPES模式中同化系统高层插值方案的可行性。全球GRAPES三维变分同化试验结果显示,改进方案不仅显著的改善平流层分析质量,对对流层中高层也有改进。  相似文献   

7.

This paper presents the first multi-model ensemble of 10-year, “convection-permitting” kilometer-scale regional climate model (RCM) scenario simulations downscaled from selected CMIP5 GCM projections for historical and end of century time slices. The technique is to first downscale the CMIP5 GCM projections to an intermediate 12–15 km resolution grid using RCMs, and then use these fields to downscale further to the kilometer scale. The aim of the paper is to provide an overview of the representation of the precipitation characteristics and their projected changes over the greater Alpine domain within a Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment Flagship Pilot Study and the European Climate Prediction system project, tasked with investigating convective processes at the kilometer scale. An ensemble of 12 simulations performed by different research groups around Europe is analyzed. The simulations are evaluated through comparison with high resolution observations while the complementary ensemble of 12 km resolution driving models is used as a benchmark to evaluate the added value of the convection-permitting ensemble. The results show that the kilometer-scale ensemble is able to improve the representation of fine scale details of mean daily, wet-day/hour frequency, wet-day/hour intensity and heavy precipitation on a seasonal scale, reducing uncertainty over some regions. It also improves the representation of the summer diurnal cycle, showing more realistic onset and peak of convection. The kilometer-scale ensemble refines and enhances the projected patterns of change from the coarser resolution simulations and even modifies the sign of the precipitation intensity change and heavy precipitation over some regions. The convection permitting simulations also show larger changes for all indices over the diurnal cycle, also suggesting a change in the duration of convection over some regions. A larger positive change of frequency of heavy to severe precipitation is found. The results are encouraging towards the use of convection-permitting model ensembles to produce robust assessments of the local impacts of future climate change.

  相似文献   

8.
Multiyear (1983?C2006) hindcast simulation of summer monsoon over South Asia has been carried out using the regional climate model of the Beijing Climate Centre (BCC_RegCM1.0). The regional climate model (hereafter BCC RCM) is nested into the global climate model of the Beijing Climate Centre BCC_CGCM1.0 (here after CGCM). The regional climate model is initialized on 01 May and integrated up to the end of the September for 24?years. Compared to the driving CGCM the BCC RCM reproduces reasonably well the intensity and magnitude of the large-scale features associated with the South Asia summer monsoon such as the upper level anticyclone at 200?hPa, the mid-tropospheric warming over the Tibetan plateau, the surface heat low and the 850?hPa moisture transport from ocean to the land. Both models, i.e., BCC RCM and the driving CGCM overestimates (underestimates) the 850?hPa southwesterly flow over the northern (southern) Arabian Sea. Moreover, both models overestimate the seasonal mean precipitation over much of the South Asia region compared to the observations. However, the precipitation biases are significantly reduced in the BCC RCM simulations. Furthermore, both models simulate reasonably the interannual variability of the summer monsoon over India. The precipitation index simulated by BCC RCM shows significant correlation (0.62) with the observed one. The BCC RCM simulates reasonably well the spatial and temporal variation of the precipitation and surface air temperature compared to the driving CGCM. Further, the temperature biases are significantly reduced (1?C4°C) in the BCC RCM simulations. The simulated vertical structure of the atmosphere show biases above the four sub-regions, however, these biases are significantly reduced in the BCC RCM simulations compared to the driving CGCM. Compared to the driving CGCM, the evolution processes of the onset of summer monsoon, e.g., the meridional temperature gradient and the vertical wind shear are well simulated by the BCC RCM. The 24-year simulations also show that with a little exception the BCC RCM is capable to reproduce the monsoon active and break phases and the intraseasonal precipitation variation over the Indian subcontinent.  相似文献   

9.
赵玉春  王叶红 《大气科学》2020,44(2):371-389
利用2009~2017年7~9月福建省逐小时地面加密自动站资料和2015~2017年7~9月厦门站的探空资料,通过K均值聚类法和中尺度数值模式(WRF3.9.1.1版本)理想数值模拟,分析了我国东南沿岸及复杂山地(福建)后汛期降水日变化特征,揭示了地形热力环流以及海陆风环流在热对流降水日变化形成中的作用,探讨了环境温湿廓线及风垂直廓线对热对流降水日峰值强度和日峰值出现时间的影响。结果发现:我国东南沿岸复杂山地(福建)后汛期降水日变化受地形热力环流和海陆风环流的影响和调制,白天辐射加热在复杂山地形成的局地热力环流激发出对流降雨带,午后受海风环流的影响,对流降雨带组织发展达到峰值,之后随着地形热力环流和海风环流减弱雨带逐渐减弱。武夷山及周边复杂山地的降水日变化主要受地形热力环流的影响,在午后对流降水达到峰值,夜间减弱几近消失。理想数值试验进一步证实了我国东南沿岸复杂山地地形热力环流对对流降雨的触发以及海陆风环流在山地对流雨带组织发展中的作用,环境温湿廓线以及风垂直廓线对热对流降水日峰值强度以及日峰值出现的时间具有重要影响,其中环境温湿廓线的大气抬升凝结高度、大气可降水量、大气的对流不稳定度以及大气中低层湿度分布的不同,会影响热对流降水日峰值强度,并通过影响山地热力对流触发时间,改变热对流降水日峰值时间,而环境风垂直廓线的低层气流强度和方向、中低层垂直风切变的不同,会影响地形热力对流系统的启动、组织发展和移动等特征,进而影响热对流降水日峰值强度以及热对流降水日峰值时间。  相似文献   

10.
A high resolution regional climate model (RCM) is used to simulate climate of the recent past and to project future climate change across the northeastern US. Different types of uncertainties in climate simulations are examined by driving the RCM with different boundary data, applying different emissions scenarios, and running an ensemble of simulations with different initial conditions. Empirical orthogonal functions analysis and K-means clustering analysis are applied to divide the northeastern US region into four climatologically different zones based on the surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation variability. The RCM simulations tend to overestimate SAT, especially over the northern part of the domain in winter and over the western part in summer. Statistically significant increases in seasonal SAT under both higher and lower emissions scenarios over the whole RCM domain suggest the robustness of future warming. Most parts of the northeastern US region will experience increasing winter precipitation and decreasing summer precipitation, though the changes are not statistically significant. The greater magnitude of the projected temperature increase by the end of the twenty-first century under the higher emissions scenario emphasizes the essential role of emissions choices in determining the potential future climate change.  相似文献   

11.
The responses of vertical structures,in convective and stratiform regions,to the large-scale forcing during the landfall of tropical storm Bilis(2006) are investigated using the data from a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation.An imposed large-scale forcing with upward motion in the mid and upper troposphere and downward motion in the lower troposphere on 15 July suppresses convective clouds,which leads to ～100% coverage of raining stratiform clouds over the entire model domain.The imposed forci...  相似文献   

12.
高纬度强对流与对流层上层水汽变化关系的数值模拟研究   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
应用WRF中尺度模式模拟了发生在黑龙江省西南部的一次区域性暴雨过程,通过云微物理参数化方案的敏感性试验,分析了对流云体中水汽垂直输送特征.结果表明:强对流活动使对流层上层局地水汽平均增加10倍以上,对流活动对于水汽的垂直输送以及对高层水汽含量的改变具有非常显著的作用.云微物理参数化方案,对于整个对流层水汽通量密度变化趋势有较好的表现.在不同方案中,0.5 ～9 km水汽通量密度及24 h总水汽垂直输送量,随高度变化差异较大.这是由平均垂直速度对不同方案敏感性造成的,不同的参数化方案,水汽通量最大值间最多相差可达27.9％.在不同的方案中,对流层上层加湿作用持续时间和对流层上层平均水汽混合比的最大值较敏感:对流活动可造成模拟区域对流层上层增湿持续16 ～20 h不等;对流层上层平均水汽混合比的最大值差异明显,最大可达15.8％.进行24 h平均后,上述物理量对方案的敏感性可减小到8.3％.所以,云微物理方案的不确定性对于暴雨过程的时间尺度是不可忽视的.  相似文献   

13.
The performance of climate models in simulating the linkage of the spring Hadley circulation (HC) to the vertical zonal wind shear and atmospheric divergence in the lower and upper troposphere, which are related to the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) during June-September (JJAS), is evaluated on the basis of the 20th century climate simulations (20C3M). It is found that four models can simulta-neously reproduce the pattern revealed in the observation, with the spring HC in the Northern Hemisphere being positively correlated to the vertical zonal wind shear in the major tropical cyclone (TC) genesis region and negatively (positively) correlated to the atmospheric diver- gence in the upper (lower) troposphere over the western North Pacific (WNP) in the following JJAS. These four models are further used to project their relationship in the late 21st century under the A1B scenario. The results show that the association of spring HC with the vertical zonal wind shear and the upper-and lower-tropospheric divergence over the WNP will weaken in the late 21st century, thereby resulting in a weak relationship between the spring HC and the JJAS WNPTCF.  相似文献   

14.
Climate and forecast mode simulations with the regional climate model HIRlam-ECHAM(HIRHAM) are evaluated over a pan-Antarctic domain. The ability of the model to simulate temperature and wind profiles in the troposphere is quantified by comparing its results with radiosonde data acquired from the Davis station for January and July 2007. Compared to the climate mode, the forecast mode was found to deliver improved results for temperature and wind simulations at the near surface and in the lower troposphere. The main remaining model bias found was the under-representation of low-level wind jets. Based on ensemble simulations, it is shown that a distinct internal variability is inherent in the climate mode simulations, and associated areas of reduced predictability over Antarctica are identified.  相似文献   

15.
This paper summarizes the recent progress in studies of the diurnal variation of precipitation over con- tiguous China. The main results are as follows. （1） The rainfall diurnal variation over contiguous China presents distinct regional features. In summer, precipitation peaks in the late afternoon over the south- ern inland China and northeastern China, while it peaks around midnight over southwestern China. In the upper and middle reaches of Yangtze River valley, precipitation occurs mostly in the early morning. Summer precipitation over the central eastern China （most regions of the Tibetan Plateau） has two diurnal peaks, i.e., one in the early morning （midnight） and the other in the late afternoon. （2） The rainfall diurnal variation experiences obvious seasonal and sub-seasonal evolutions. In cold seasons, the regional contrast of rainfall diurnal peaks decreases, with an early morning maximum over most of the southern China. Over the central eastern China, diurnal monsoon rainfall shows sub-seasonal variations with the movement of summer monsoon systems. The rainfall peak mainly occurs in the early morning （late afternoon） during the active （break） monsoon period. （3） Cloud properties and occurrence time of rainfall diurnal peaks are different for long- and short-duration rainfall events. Long-duration rainfall events are dominated by strat- iform precipitation, with the maximum surface rain rate and the highest profile occurring in the late night to early morning, while short-duration rainfall events are more related to convective precipitation, with the maximum surface rain rate and the highest profile occurring between the late afternoon and early night. （4） The rainfall diurnal variation is influenced by multi-scale mountain-valley and land-sea breezes as well as large-scale atmospheric circulation, and involves complicated formation and evolution of cloud and rainfall systems. The diurnal cycle of winds in the lower troposphere also contributes to the regional differences  相似文献   

16.
Based on the simulations of 32 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the present study assesses their capacity to simulate the relationship of the summer Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO) with the vertical zonal wind shear, low-level atmospheric vorticity, mid-level humidity, atmospheric divergence in the lower and upper troposphere, and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) that are closely associated with the genesis of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. The results indicate that five models can simultaneously reproduce the observed pattern with the positive APO phase accompanied by weak vertical zonal wind shear, strengthened vorticity in the lower troposphere, increased mid-level humidity, intensified low-level convergence and high-level divergence, and a northward-located WPSH over the western North Pacific. These five models are further used to project their potential relationship under the RCP8.5 scenario during 2050–2099. Compared to 1950–1999, the relationship between the APO and the vertical zonal wind shear is projected to weaken by both the multi-model ensemble and the individual models. Its linkage to the low-level vorticity, mid-level humidity, atmospheric divergence in the lower and upper troposphere, and the northward–southward movement of the WPSH would also reduce slightly but still be significant. However, the individual models show relatively large differences in projecting the linkage between the APO and the mid-level humidity and low-level divergence.  相似文献   

17.
The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscaling of global climate model (GCM) output for air quality applications under a changing climate. In this study we downscale the NCEP-Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) Reanalysis using three continuous 20-year WRF simulations: one simulation without interior grid nudging and two using different interior grid nudging methods. The biases in 2-m temperature and precipitation for the simulation without interior grid nudging are unreasonably large with respect to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) over the eastern half of the contiguous United States (CONUS) during the summer when air quality concerns are most relevant. This study examines how these differences arise from errors in predicting the large-scale atmospheric circulation. It is demonstrated that the Bermuda high, which strongly influences the regional climate for much of the eastern half of the CONUS during the summer, is poorly simulated without interior grid nudging. In particular, two summers when the Bermuda high was west (1993) and east (2003) of its climatological position are chosen to illustrate problems in the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. For both summers, WRF without interior grid nudging fails to simulate the placement of the upper-level anticyclonic (1993) and cyclonic (2003) circulation anomalies. The displacement of the large-scale circulation impacts the lower atmosphere moisture transport and precipitable water, affecting the convective environment and precipitation. Using interior grid nudging improves the large-scale circulation aloft and moisture transport/precipitable water anomalies, thereby improving the simulated 2-m temperature and precipitation. The results demonstrate that constraining the RCM to the large-scale features in the driving fields improves the overall accuracy of the simulated regional climate, and suggest that in the absence of such a constraint, the RCM will likely misrepresent important large-scale shifts in the atmospheric circulation under a future climate.  相似文献   

18.
To downscale climate change scenarios, long-term regional climatologies employing global model forcing are needed for West Africa. As a first step, this work examines present-day integrations (1981–2000) with a regional climate model (RCM) over West Africa nested in both reanalysis data and output from a coupled atmospheric–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). Precipitation and temperature from both simulations are compared to the Climate Research Unit observations. Their spatial distributions are shown to be realistic. Annual cycles are considerably correlated. Simulations are also evaluated with respect to the driving large-scale fields. RCM offers some improvements compared to the AOGCM driving field. Evaluation of seasonal precipitation biases reveals that RCM dry biases are highest on June–August around mountains. They are associated to cold biases in temperature which, in turn, are connected to wet biases in precipitation outside orographic zones. Biases brought through AOGCM forcing are relatively low. Despite these errors, the simulations produce encouraging results and show the ability of the AOGCM to drive the RCM for future projections.  相似文献   

19.
The wake characteristics of a wind turbine for different regimes occurring throughout the diurnal cycle are investigated systematically by means of large-eddy simulation. Idealized diurnal cycle simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer are performed with the geophysical flow solver EULAG over both homogeneous and heterogeneous terrain. Under homogeneous conditions, the diurnal cycle significantly affects the low-level wind shear and atmospheric turbulence. A strong vertical wind shear and veering with height occur in the nocturnal stable boundary layer and in the morning boundary layer, whereas atmospheric turbulence is much larger in the convective boundary layer and in the evening boundary layer. The increased shear under heterogeneous conditions changes these wind characteristics, counteracting the formation of the night-time Ekman spiral. The convective, stable, evening, and morning regimes of the atmospheric boundary layer over a homogeneous surface as well as the convective and stable regimes over a heterogeneous surface are used to study the flow in a wind-turbine wake. Synchronized turbulent inflow data from the idealized atmospheric boundary-layer simulations with periodic horizontal boundary conditions are applied to the wind-turbine simulations with open streamwise boundary conditions. The resulting wake is strongly influenced by the stability of the atmosphere. In both cases, the flow in the wake recovers more rapidly under convective conditions during the day than under stable conditions at night. The simulated wakes produced for the night-time situation completely differ between heterogeneous and homogeneous surface conditions. The wake characteristics of the transitional periods are influenced by the flow regime prior to the transition. Furthermore, there are different wake deflections over the height of the rotor, which reflect the incoming wind direction.  相似文献   

20.
This study estimates the potential for added value in dynamical downscaling by increasing the spatial resolution of the regional climate model (RCM) over Korea. The Global/Regional Integrated Model System—Regional Model Program with two different resolutions is employed as the RCM. Large-scale forcing is given by a historical simulation of a global climate model, namely the Hadley Center Global Environmental Model version 2. As a standard procedure, the reproducibility of the RCM results for the present climate is evaluated against the reanalysis and observation datasets. It is confirmed that the RCM adequately reproduces the major characteristics of the observed atmospheric conditions and the increased resolution of the RCM contributes to the improvement of simulated surface variables including precipitation and temperature. For the added-value assessment, the interannual and daily variabilities of precipitation, temperature are compared between the different resolution RCM experiments. It is distinctly shown that variabilities are additionally described as the spatial resolution becomes higher. The increased resolution also contributes to capture the extreme weather conditions, such as heavy rainfall events and sweltering days. The enhanced added value is more evident for the precipitation than for the temperature, which stands for a usefulness of the high-resolution RCM especially for diagnosing potential hazard related to heavy rainfall. The results of this study assure the effectiveness of increasing spatial resolution of the RCM for detecting climate extremes and also provide credibility to the current climate simulation for future projection studies.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号