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1.
多要素气候态相似季节划分法作为一种新的季节划分客观化方法,在近几年被广泛应用于气候变化研究、气候监测和短期气候预测等。该方法的关键之处在于多要素的融合和典型场的选取,其中典型场是指多要素气候态相似法中所选取的能代表冬季和夏季平均气候特征的气候态距平场。文中采用3种不同方案选取典型场：方法一,基于60年平均气候态选取典型场;方法二,基于30年平均气候态选取典型场;方法三,基于逐年气候态状况选取典型场。研究不同典型场的选取对多要素气候态相似季节划分法划分结果的可能影响,进而以1998年和2013年华中地区的季节划分为例,对第3种典型场划分方法的准确性进行论证。结果显示,典型场作为多要素气候态相似季节划分法的划分基准,对季节划分的结果至关重要,基于单年气候状况选取的典型场与基于多年平均气候态选取的典型场之间的差异存在年代际变化,且在气候变化的转折阶段差异尤为显著。基于第3种典型场选取方案的1998年和2013年季节划分结果能准确地反映当年华中地区气候态和大气环流的季节变化情况。 相似文献
2.
This paper investigates how transportation sector managers perceive and utilize climate science, and subsequently, how they appropriate the climate change problem. The analysis focuses on which devices they qualify as useful for translating between knowledge, policy and practice concluding with a discussion of what this suggests in the development of efficient climate adaptation strategies. The paper demonstrates that although transportation sector managers accept the findings of climate science knowledge presented to them, their understanding of the climate change problem and the range of qualifying anchoring devices used in the development of climate adaption strategies are differentiated according to where they are located in the institutional context. For transportation sector managers on the regional and district level, the climate problem is largely perceived through the occurrence of extreme weather rather than through climate science. However, this knowledge basis is not considered sufficient to support ‘knowing how to act’ and has resulted in waiting for the authorities to make standards and regulations that would translate climate change knowledge into methods of practice. We argue that the development of standards and regulations might be underestimated in relation to user demands in climate adaptation work that involves reconciling scientific information. 相似文献
3.
Climate resilient development is emerging as a global policy strategy that integrates climate adaptation and mitigation into sustainable development decisions. For the Caribbean small island developing state (SIDS) of Antigua and Barbuda, the national government is pursuing climate resilient development through multilateral climate funds to protect economic growth from climate and weather-related disasters. Critical adaptation literature argues that interpreting climate vulnerability through an economic growth lens prioritizes economic solutions over other development concerns, which can further the uneven distribution of climate vulnerability and risk. Despite revealing the consequences of market-based climate actions, research has yet to fully understand the economization of vulnerability, which describes the political techniques that render and reconfigure vulnerability in calculated ways. By tracing the discursive interactions between multilateral climate financial institutions and the Antigua and Barbuda national government, this paper empirically examines how vulnerability is economized through climate resilient development. Findings identify the construction of ‘adaptation economies’ in watershed areas, which are economies that can capitalize upon climate challenges within areas of highest vulnerability through fee-for-climate services. The results illustrate that economic growth rationalities characterize climate vulnerability problematizations, which incentivize solutions that enforce the economic development of areas with the highest disaster impacts. Based on these findings, this study emphasizes a need to critically evaluate national actor efforts to re-organize development under climate financing rationales, and its vulnerability-inducing effects. 相似文献
4.
The changes in coverage by arid climate and intensity of the Hadley circulation during the second half of the twentieth century were examined using observations and the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean of Twentieth-Century Coupled Climate Model (20C3M) simulations. It was found that the area of dry climate, which comprises steppe and desert climates following the K?ppen climate classification, expanded to an appreciable extent in observation and, to a lesser degree, in MME simulation. The areal extent of steppe climate (the outer boundary of arid climate) tends to encroach on the surrounding climate groups, which, in turn, feeds desert climate (the inner part of arid climate) and causes it to grow. This result indicates the importance of accurate prediction for climate regimes that border steppe climate. Concomitant with the expansion of drylands, the observed intensity of the Hadley cell is persistently enhanced, particularly during boreal winter, suggesting the validity of a self-induction of deserts through a positive bio-geophysical feedback (also known as Charney’s cycle). In comparison, the simulated Hadley circulation in the MME mean remains invariant in time. The current climate models, therefore, disagree with the observation in the long-term linkage between desertification and Hadley cell. Finally, the implication of such discrepancy is discussed as a possible guidance to improve models. 相似文献
5.
MM5对中全新世时期中国地区气候的模拟研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
MM5模式结果与地质记录的对比表明,这个模式系统可以较好地模拟中全新世时气候的变化,特别是模式模拟的降水变化与地质记录吻合得较好.区域模式的结果比全球模式结果有所改进.模式结果显示:与现代相比,中全新世时,中国地区的气温升高,夏季升温超过冬季.同时,中国的内蒙古东部地区、东北地区和华北地区降水显著增加;而中国的华东、华中、华南和西南地区降水减少.中国东部30°N以北地区夏季风增强;中国东部的冬季风减弱.从一系列敏感试验结果,可以发现:在中全新世时,中国地区的气温、风场和降水的变化主要受大尺度环流背景场变化的影响,其对降水变化的影响超过50%.其次受地表状况和植被变化的影响,植被的变化主要影响中国东部地区,使得在冬季和夏季中国地区均升温;而且,对华北部分地区降水变化的影响最大超过25%.地球轨道的变化使得中全新世时太阳辐射的季节变化较大,造成中全新世时中国地区在冬季降温,在夏季升温;同时,对东北和华北地区的降水有重要影响,其影响与植被变化的影响相当.中全新世时,大气中CO2的体积混合比为280×10-6,CO2的变化使得中伞新世时气温降低,但量级较小.影响中全新世时中国地区气候变化的因子,按影响程度由大到小的排序为:大尺度环流背景场、植被变化、地球轨道参数变化和CO2浓度变化. 相似文献
6.
Progress in the attribution of climate warming in China for the 20th century is summarized. Three sets of climate model experiments including both coupled and uncoupled runs have been used in the attribution analyses. Comparison of climate model results with the observations proves that in the 20th century, especially in the recent half century, climate warming in China is closely related to the increasing of the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, while sulfate aerosol should also have contributions. When both external forcing and natural forcing agents are prescribed, coupled climate models have better results in producing the observed variation of temperature in China. The role of oceanic forcing is also emphasized in the attribution analyses. The observed climate warming of China in the 1920s could not be reproduced in any set of climate model simulations. 相似文献
7.
中国气候预测研究与业务发展的回顾 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
天气预报是指一周内至两周时间尺度的气象预报,而月季及以上时间尺度的预报则属于气候预测范畴。中国的气候预测起步很早,无论在研究工作中还是在业务应用上都取得了显著成就。文中扼要回顾了这些研究和业务发展成就,重点包括:对于季风和梅雨、寒潮的早期认知和后期研究发现、早期气候预测业务发展概况、动力气候预测的早期探索、动力-统计气候预测方法的研制和应用、气候预测模式的发展以及初始化和多模式集合预测、东亚气候系统变异的全方位探索、气候预测范畴的不断拓展和气候预测研究的不断创新。也对未来气候预测研究和业务发展提出了几个重大挑战性课题,涉及不同时间尺度气候变异过程之间的相互作用、季节内至年代际气候预测、气候系统模式及初始化、动力-统计相结合的气候预测方法等方面。 相似文献
8.
Regional climate models represent a promising tool to assess the regional dimension of future climate change and are widely used in climate impact research. While the added value of regional climate models has been highlighted with respect to a better representation of land-surface interactions and atmospheric processes, it is still unclear whether radiative heating implies predictability down to the typical scale of a regional climate model. As a quantitative assessment, we apply an optimal statistical filter to compare the coherence between observed and simulated patterns of Mediterranean climate change from a global and a regional climate model. It is found that the regional climate model has indeed an added value in the detection of regional climate change, contrary to former assumptions. The optimal filter may also serve as a weighting factor in multi-model averaging. 相似文献
9.
Planning for the past: Local temporality and the construction of denial in climate change adaptation
Climate change is upon us. While debates continue over how to mitigate emissions, it is evident that many parts of the world will need to adapt to an increasingly unstable climate. However, the persistence of climate denial presents a significant barrier to climate change response; if a future in which the climate has dramatically changed cannot be imagined, there is little motivation to act. Using qualitative interview data, our research investigates community responses to climate change adaptation planning in a coastal region of Australia identified as highly vulnerable to future sea level rise. While the local council engaged in extensive consultation to develop an adaptation plan, community opposition to proposed development changes ultimately resulted in a ‘wait and see’ response. We show how the community’s local understandings of place informed temporalities that led to a practice of climate denial. We outline three processes by which climate denial is socially organised: anchoring the past via historical reference; projecting continuity through a nostalgic lens of managing disaster; and enclosing the present by prioritising existing economic value. We show how these processes result in the social organisation of climate denial, and an inability to plan for a climate changed future. 相似文献
10.
气候变化科学方面的几个最新认知 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组报告主要从以下几个方面的进展提升了我们对气候系统变化、气候变化原因以及预估未来气候系统变化等方面的认知,对过去气候变化及其与人类活动的关系有了更加清晰、可靠的认识。综合多重证据评估指出,全球气候正经历着前所未有的变化;包括极端事件在内的归因进展已把人类活动对气候系统影响的认识从大气圈扩展到水圈、冰冻圈和生物圈,进一步强化了人类活动影响全球和区域气候的认识;有关区域气候变化信息的内容更加丰富,与各行业和敏感地区的气候变化影响联系更加紧密,使这些信息能更好地为气候变化风险评估和气候变化区域适应提供支持;气候模式和约束预估方法的发展以及对气候敏感度认识的深化,减少了未来不同排放情景下全球地表温度（Global Surface Temperature,GST)、海平面上升和海洋热含量的变化预估的不确定性。这份最新报告对我国提升气候变化研究水平和防灾减灾应对能力具有十分重要的指导意义。 相似文献
11.
Big data has emerged as the next technological revolution in IT industry after cloud computing and the Internet of Things. With the development of climate observing systems, particularly satellite meteorological observation and high-resolution climate models, and the rapid growth in the volume of climate data, climate prediction is now entering the era of big data. The application of big data will provide new ideas and methods for the continuous development of climate prediction. The rapid integration, cloud storage, cloud computing, and full-sample analysis of massive climate data makes it possible to understand climate states and their evolution more objectively, thus predicting the future climate more accurately. This paper describes the application status of big data in operational climate prediction in China; it analyzes the key big data technologies, discusses the future development of climate prediction operations from the perspective of big data, speculates on the prospects for applying climatic big data in cloud computing and data assimilation, and puts forward the notion of big data-based super-ensemble climate prediction methods and computerbased deep learning climate prediction methods. 相似文献
12.
Big data has emerged as the next technological revolution in IT industry after cloud computing and the Internet of Things.With the development of climate observing systems,particularly satellite meteorological observation and high-resolution climate models,and the rapid growth in the volume of climate data,climate prediction is now entering the era of big data.The application of big data will provide new ideas and methods for the continuous development of climate prediction.The rapid integration,cloud storage,cloud computing,and full-sample analysis of massive climate data makes it possible to understand climate states and their evolution more objectively,thus predicting the future climate more accurately.This paper describes the application status of big data in operational climate prediction in China;it analyzes the key big data technologies,discusses the future development of climate prediction operations from the perspective of big data,speculates on the prospects for applying climatic big data in cloud computing and data assimilation,and puts forward the notion of big data-based super-ensemble climate prediction methods and computerbased deep learning climate prediction methods. 相似文献
13.
Dietmar Dommenget 《Climate Dynamics》2016,46(1-2):427-447
In this study the relationship between climate model biases in the control climate and the simulated climate sensitivity are discussed on the basis of perturbed physics ensemble simulations with a globally resolved energy balance (GREB) model. It is illustrated that the uncertainties in the simulated climate sensitivity (estimated by the transient response to CO2 forcing scenarios in the twenty first century or idealized 2 × CO2 forcing experiments) can be conceptually split into two parts: a direct effect of the perturbed physics on the climate sensitivity independent of the control mean climate and an indirect effect of the perturbed physics by changing the control mean climate, which in turn changes the climate sensitivity, as the climate sensitivity itself is depending on the control climate. Biases in the control climate are negatively correlated with the climate sensitivity (colder climates have larger sensitivities), if no physics are perturbed. Perturbed physics that lead to warmer control climate, would in average also lead to larger climate sensitivities, if the control climate is held at the observed reference climate by flux corrections. Thus the effects of control biases and perturbed physics are opposing each other and are partially cancelling each other out. In the GREB model the biases in the control climate are the more important effect for the regional climate sensitivity uncertainties, but for the global mean climate sensitivity both, the biases in the control climate and the perturbed physics, are equally important. 相似文献
14.
15.
The Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Colorado River Basin 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5
Niklas S. Christensen Andrew W. Wood Nathalie Voisin Dennis P. Lettenmaier Richard N. Palmer 《Climatic change》2004,62(1-3):337-363
The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin are assessed by comparing simulated hydrologic and water resources scenarios derived from downscaled climate simulations of the U.S. Department of Energy/National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (PCM) to scenarios driven by observed historical (1950–1999) climate. PCM climate scenarios include an ensemble of three 105-year future climate simulations based on projected `business-as-usual'(BAU) greenhouse gas emissions and a control climate simulation based on static 1995 greenhouse gas concentrations. Downscaled transient temperature and precipitation sequences were extracted from PCM simulations, and were used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model to produce corresponding streamflow sequences. Results for the BAU scenarios were summarized into Periods 1, 2, and 3 (2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098). Average annual temperature changes for the Colorado Riverbasin were 0.5 °C warmer for control climate, and 1.0, 1.7, and 2.4 °C warmer for Periods 1–3, respectively, relative to the historicalclimate. Basin-average annual precipitation for the control climate was slightly(1%) less than for observed historical climate, and 3, 6, and 3%less for future Periods 1–3, respectively. Annual runoff in the controlrun was about 10% lower than for simulated historical conditions, and 14, 18, and 17% less for Periods 1–3, respectively. Analysis of watermanagement operations using a water management model driven by simulated streamflows showed that streamflows associated with control and future BAU climates would significantly degrade the performance of the water resourcessystem relative to historical conditions, with average total basin storage reduced by 7% for the control climate and 36, 32 and 40% for Periods 1–3, respectively. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam to the LowerBasin (mandated by the Colorado River Compact) were met in 80% of years for the control climate simulation (versus 92% in the historical climate simulation), and only in 59–75% of years for the future climate runs. Annual hydropower output was also significantly reduced for the control and future climate simulations. The high sensitivity of reservoir system performance for future climate is a reflection of the fragile equilibrium that now exists in operation of the system, with system demands only slightly less than long-term mean annual inflow. 相似文献
16.
本文分析了重庆市气候特点及其对重庆农业的影响;并在全球气候变暖的大气候背景下,分析了重庆气候的变化趋势,并就气候变化对重庆农业可能造成的影响进行了初步的探讨;提出了重庆农业应对气候变化的适应性战略和技术措施。 相似文献
17.
通过系统分析世界各国气候传播领域近年来的进展,以解释为何公众对气候变化的科学结论缺乏信任这一复杂问题.文中首先概述了各国公众对气候变化的态度以及影响公众态度的社会、政治与经济因素,再分析了各国媒体对气候变化的报道及其媒体效果,并重点探究了社会心理因素如何影响人们对气候变化的认知与态度.此外国际气候传播研究对我国气候传播... 相似文献
18.
Andrew Challinor Tim Wheeler Chris Garforth Peter Craufurd Amir Kassam 《Climatic change》2007,83(3):381-399
Africa is thought to be the region most vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and change. Agriculture plays a dominant
role in supporting rural livelihoods and economic growth over most of Africa. Three aspects of the vulnerability of food crop
systems to climate change in Africa are discussed: the assessment of the sensitivity of crops to variability in climate, the
adaptive capacity of farmers, and the role of institutions in adapting to climate change. The magnitude of projected impacts
of climate change on food crops in Africa varies widely among different studies. These differences arise from the variety
of climate and crop models used, and the different techniques used to match the scale of climate model output to that needed
by crop models. Most studies show a negative impact of climate change on crop productivity in Africa. Farmers have proved
highly adaptable in the past to short- and long-term variations in climate and in their environment. Key to the ability of
farmers to adapt to climate variability and change will be access to relevant knowledge and information. It is important that
governments put in place institutional and macro-economic conditions that support and facilitate adaptation and resilience
to climate change at local, national and transnational level. 相似文献
19.
主要概述了中国科学院大气物理研究所近些年来在气候动力学与气候预测理论研究领域的若干重要研究进展.通过对气候系统变化多尺度特征及其动力学的分析和研究,提出了一系列气候系统动力学理论,并在此基础上提出了适合于我国季风气候特点的气候预测理论和方法,在国际上率先开展了跨季度数值气候预测,进一步建立了先进、完善的短期数值气候预测系统,并应用于我国夏季旱涝预测业务.这些工作既带有极大的基础性意义,同时也具有巨大的应用价值,为我国大气科学及气候科学乃至环境科学的研究提供了重要工具. 相似文献
20.
于革 《气候变化研究进展》2007,3(1):20-025
白垩纪是地质史上一个典型的温室气候时期，国际上围绕白垩纪气候成因开展了一系列模拟研究。在评述白垩纪古气候模拟的基础上，讨论了气候模式的应用和发展、古气候边界场设置和模拟试验，分析白垩纪温室气体、古地理、古海洋以及海陆生态系统对气候的作用和反馈。这些古气候模拟试验锁定在气候变化的关键时段和驱动因子、测试地球内外动力和地球各圈层反馈作用，可为认识温室气候的成因、探讨气候变化内在机制和预测未来气候提供重要的科学依据。 相似文献