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1.
We propose a modification of the Pattern Informatics (PI) method that has been developed for forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes. This forecast is based on analyzing the space–time patterns of past earthquakes to find possible locations where future large earthquakes are expected to occur. A characteristic of our modification is that the effect of errors in the locations of past earthquakes on the output forecast is reduced. We apply the modified and original methods to seismicity in the central part of Japan and compared the forecast performances. We also invoke the Relative Intensity (RI) of seismic activity and randomized catalogs to constitute null hypotheses. We do statistical tests using the Molchan and Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) diagrams and the log-likelihoods and show that the forecast for using the modified PI method is generally better than the competing original-PI forecast and the forecasts from the null hypotheses. Using the bootstrap technique with Monte-Carlo simulations, we further confirm that earthquake sequences simulated based on the modified-PI forecast can be statistically the same as the real earthquake sequence so that the forecast is acceptable. The main and innovative science in this paper is the modification of the PI method and the demonstration of its applicability, showing a considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting tool.  相似文献   

2.
Changes in the stress field of an aquifer system induced by seismotectonic activity may change the mixing ratio of groundwaters with different compositions in a well, leading to hydrochemical signals which in principle could be related to discrete earthquake events. Due to the complexity of the interactions and the multitude of involved factors the identification of such relationships is a difficult task. In this study we present an empiric statistical approach suitable to analyse if there is an interdependency between changes in the chemical composition of monitoring wells and the regional seismotectonic activity of a considered area. To allow a rigorous comparison with hydrochemistry the regional earthquake time series was aggregated into an univariate time series. This was realized by expressing each earthquake in form of a parameter “e”, taking into consideration both energetic (magnitude of a seismic event) and spatial parameters (position of epi/hypocentrum relative to the monitoring site). The earthquake and the hydrochemical time-series were synchronised aggregating the e-parameters into “earthquake activity” functions E, which takes into account the time of sampling relative to the earthquakes which occurred in the considered area. For the definition of the aggregation functions a variety of different “e” parameters were considered. The set of earthquake functions E was grouped by means of factor analysis to select a limited number of significant and representative earthquake functions E to be used further on in the relation analysis with the multivariate hydrochemical data set. From the hydrochemical data a restricted number of hydrochemical factors were extracted. Factor scores allow to represent and analyse the variation of the hydrochemical factors as a function of time. Finally, regression analysis was used to detect those hydrochemical factors which significantly correlate with the aggregated earthquake functions.This methodological approach was tested with a hydrochemical data set collected from a deep well monitored for two years in the seismically active Vrancea region, Romania. Three of the hydrochemical factors were found to correlate significantly with the considered earthquake activities. A screening with different time combinations revealed that correlations are strongest when the cumulative seismicity over several weeks was considered. The case study also showed that the character of the interdependency depends sometimes on the geometrical distribution of the earthquake foci. By using aggregated earthquake information it was possible to detect interrelationships which couldn't have been identified by analysing only relations between single geochemical signals and single earthquake events. Further on, the approach allows to determine the influence of different seismotectonic patterns on the hydrochemical composition of the sampled well. The method is suitable to be used as a decision instrument in assessing if a monitoring site is suitable or not to be included in a monitoring net within a complex earthquake prediction strategy.  相似文献   

3.
A statistical analysis was carried out to investigate spatial associations between natural seismicity and faults in southeastern Ontario and north-central New York State (between 73°18′ and 77°00′W and 43°30′ and 45°18′N). The study area is situated to the west of the seismically active St. Lawrence fault zone, and to the east of the Lake Ontario basin where recently documented geological and geophysical evidence points to possible neotectonic faulting. The weights of evidence method was used to judge the spatial associations between seismic events and populations of faults in eight arbitrarily defined orientation groups. Spatial analysis of data sets for seismic events in the periods 1930–1970 and post-1970 suggest stronger spatial associations between earthquake epicentres and faults with strikes that lie in the NW–SE quadrants, and weaker spatial associations of epicentres with faults that have strikes in the NE–SW quadrants. The strongest spatial associations were determined for groups of faults with strikes between 101° and 146°. The results suggest that faults striking broadly NW–SE, at high angles to the regional maximum horizontal compressive stress, are statistically more likely to be spatially associated with seismic events than faults striking broadly NE–SW. If the positive spatial associations can be interpreted as indicating genetic relationships between earthquakes and mapped faults, then the results may suggest that, as a population, NW–SE trending faults are more likely to be seismically active than NE–SW striking faults. Detailed geological studies of faults in the study area would be required to determine possible neotectonic displacements and the kinematics of the displacements.  相似文献   

4.
Large earthquakes in strike-slip regimes commonly rupture fault segments that are oblique to each other in both strike and dip. This was the case during the 1999 Izmit earthquake, which mainly ruptured E–W-striking right-lateral faults but also ruptured the N60°E-striking Karadere fault at the eastern end of the main rupture. It will also likely be so for any future large fault rupture in the adjacent Sea of Marmara. Our aim here is to characterize the effects of regional stress direction, stress triggering due to rupture, and mechanical slip interaction on the composite rupture process. We examine the failure tendency and slip mechanism on secondary faults that are oblique in strike and dip to a vertical strike-slip fault or “master” fault. For a regional stress field well-oriented for slip on a vertical right-lateral strike-slip fault, we determine that oblique normal faulting is most favored on dipping faults with two different strikes, both of which are oriented clockwise from the strike-slip fault. The orientation closer in strike to the master fault is predicted to slip with right-lateral oblique normal slip, the other one with left-lateral oblique normal slip. The most favored secondary fault orientations depend on the effective coefficient of friction on the faults and the ratio of the vertical stress to the maximum horizontal stress. If the regional stress instead causes left-lateral slip on the vertical master fault, the most favored secondary faults would be oriented counterclockwise from the master fault. For secondary faults striking ±30° oblique to the master fault, right-lateral slip on the master fault brings both these secondary fault orientations closer to the Coulomb condition for shear failure with oblique right-lateral slip. For a secondary fault striking 30° counterclockwise, the predicted stress change and the component of reverse slip both increase for shallower-angle dips of the secondary fault. For a secondary fault striking 30° clockwise, the predicted stress change decreases but the predicted component of normal slip increases for shallower-angle dips of the secondary fault. When both the vertical master fault and the dipping secondary fault are allowed to slip, mechanical interaction produces sharp gradients or discontinuities in slip across their intersection lines. This can effectively constrain rupture to limited portions of larger faults, depending on the locations of fault intersections. Across the fault intersection line, predicted rakes can vary by >40° and the sense of lateral slip can reverse. Application of these results provides a potential explanation for why only a limited portion of the Karadere fault ruptured during the Izmit earthquake. Our results also suggest that the geometries of fault intersection within the Sea of Marmara favor composite rupture of multiple oblique fault segments.  相似文献   

5.
M. Murru  R. Console  G. Falcone   《Tectonophysics》2009,470(3-4):214-223
We have applied an earthquake clustering epidemic model to real time data at the Italian Earthquake Data Center operated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) for short-term forecasting of moderate and large earthquakes in Italy. In this epidemic-type model every earthquake is regarded, at the same time, as being triggered by previous events and triggering following earthquakes. The model uses earthquake data only, with no explicit use of tectonic, geologic, or geodetic information. The forecasts are displayed as time-dependent maps showing both the expected rate density of Ml ≥ 4.0 earthquakes and the probability of ground shaking exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity VI (PGA ≥ 0.01 g) in an area of 100 × 100 km2 around the zone of maximum expected rate density in the following 24 h. For testing purposes, the overall probability of occurrence of an Ml ≥ 4.5 earthquake in the same area of 100 × 100 km2 is also estimated. The whole procedure is tested in real time, for internal use only, at the INGV Earthquake Data Center.Forecast verification procedures have been carried out in forward-retrospective way on the 2006–2007 INGV data set, making use of statistical tools as the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) diagrams. These procedures show that the clustering epidemic model performs up to several hundred times better than a simple random forecasting hypothesis. The seismic hazard modeling approach so developed, after a suitable period of testing and refinement, is expected to provide a useful contribution to real time earthquake hazard assessment, even with a possible practical application for decision making and public information.  相似文献   

6.
This paper analyses geodetic data including the results of short baseline and short levelling surveys across active faults, and of relevellings over a wide area collected at Tangshan and in its vicinity during the several years before the 1976 Tangshan earthquake of magnitude 7.8. Using a theoretical model for slip on a fault plane with an arbitrary dip in a viscoelastic half-space, the parameters of the aseismic fault slip prior to the shock are obtained, and the stress changes caused in the area of Tangshan by such slip are estimated. The results are comparable with the seismic activity and the changes in time and space of the b-value in the relation N = exp(a - bM) observed in the same period. It is demonstrated that during 1968–1975 the Cangdong fault, the main NNE-trending active fault in the southwest of the seismic region, had gradually started aseismic right-lateral strike-slip and that the occurrence of the Tangshan earthquake was related to the stress field produced by the slip. Finally, two sequences of periodic earthquake migration that took place in North China during 1966–1976 are discussed in connection with the Tangshan earthquake.  相似文献   

7.
Many stable continental regions have subregions with poorly defined earthquake hazards. Analysis of minor structures (folds and faults) in these subregions can improve our understanding of the tectonics and earthquake hazards. Detailed structural mapping in Pottawatomie County has revealed a suite consisting of two uplifted blocks aligned along a northeast trend and surrounded by faults. The first uplift is located southwest of the second. The northwest and southeast sides of these uplifts are bounded by northeast-trending right-lateral faults. To the east, both uplifts are bounded by north-trending reverse faults, and the first uplift is bounded by a north-trending high-angle fault to the west. The structural suite occurs above a basement fault that is part of a series of north–northeast-trending faults that delineate the Humboldt Fault Zone of eastern Kansas, an integral part of the Midcontinent Rift System. The favored kinematic model is a contractional stepover (push-up) between echelon strike-slip faults. Mechanical modeling using the boundary element method supports the interpretation of the uplifts as contractional stepovers and indicates that an approximately east–northeast maximum compressive stress trajectory is responsible for the formation of the structural suite. This stress trajectory suggests potential activity during the Laramide Orogeny, which agrees with the age of kimberlite emplacement in adjacent Riley County. The current stress field in Kansas has a N85°W maximum compressive stress trajectory that could potentially produce earthquakes along the basement faults. Several epicenters of seismic events (<M2.0) are located within 10 km of the structural suite. One epicenter is coincident with the northwest boundary of the uplift. This structural suite, a contractional stepover between echelon northeast-trending right-lateral faults, is similar to that mapped in the New Madrid Seismic Zone, and both areas currently feature roughly east–west maximum compressive stress trajectory. Based on these similarities, the faults in Pottawatomie County have the potential for seismicity. The results demonstrate that mechanical analysis of minor structural features can improve our knowledge of local earthquake hazards.  相似文献   

8.
The EEPAS (“Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale”) model is a space–time point-process model based on the precursory scale increase (Ψ) phenomenon and associated predictive scaling relations. It has previously been fitted to the New Zealand earthquake catalogue, and applied successfully in quasi-prospective tests on the CNSS catalogue for California for forecasting earthquakes with magnitudes above 5.75 and on the JMA catalogue of Japan for magnitudes above 6.75. Here we test whether the Ψ scaling relations extend to lower magnitudes, by applying EEPAS to depth-restricted subsets of the NIED catalogue of the Kanto area, central Japan, for magnitudes above 4.75. As in previous studies, the EEPAS model is found to be more informative than a quasi-static baseline model based on proximity to past earthquakes, and much more informative than the stationary uniform Poisson model. The information that it provides is illustrated by maps of the earthquake occurrence rate density, covering magnitudes from 5.0 to 8.0, for the central Japan region as at the beginning of year 2004, using the NIED and JMA catalogues to mid-2003.  相似文献   

9.
P. Mandal  S. Horton   《Tectonophysics》2007,429(1-2):61-78
The HYPODD relocation of 1172 aftershocks, recorded on 8–17 three-component digital seismographs, delineate a distinct south dipping E–W trending aftershock zone extending up to 35 km depth, which involves a crustal volume of 40 km × 60 km × 35 km. The relocated focal depths delineate the presence of three fault segments and variation in the brittle–ductile transition depths amongst the individual faults as the earthquake foci in the both western and eastern ends are confined up to 28 km depth whilst in the central aftershock zone they are limited up to 35 km depth. The FPFIT focal mechanism solutions of 444 aftershocks (using 8–12 first motions) suggest that the focal mechanisms ranged between pure reverse and pure strike slip except some pure dip slip solutions. Stress inversion performed using the P and T axes of the selected focal mechanisms reveals an N181°E oriented maximum principal stress with a very shallow dip (= 14°). The stress inversions of different depth bins of the P and T axes of selected aftershocks suggest a heterogeneous stress regime at 0–30 km depth range with a dominant consistent N–S orientation of the P-axes over the aftershock zone, which could be attributed to the existence of varied nature and orientation of fractures and faults as revealed by the relocated aftershocks.  相似文献   

10.
Active faulting and seismic properties are re-investigated in the eastern precinct of the city of Thessaloniki (Northern Greece), which was seriously affected by two large earthquakes during the 20th century and severe damage was done by the 1759 event. It is suggested that the earthquake fault associated with the occurrence of the latest destructive 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake continues westwards to the 20-km-long Thessaloniki–Gerakarou Fault Zone (TGFZ), which extends from the Gerakarou village to the city of Thessaloniki. This fault zone exhibits a constant dip to the N and is characterised by a complicated geometry comprised of inherited 100°-trending faults that form multi-level branching (tree-like fault geometry) along with NNE- to NE-trending faults. The TGFZ is compatible with the contemporary regional N–S extensional stress field that tends to modify the pre-existing NW–SE tectonic fabric prevailing in the mountainous region of Thessaloniki. Both the 1978 earthquake fault and TGFZ belong to a ca. 65-km-long E–W-trending rupture fault system that runs through the southern part of the Mygdonia graben from the Strymonikos gulf to Thessaloniki. This fault system, here called Thessaloniki–Rentina Fault System (TRFS), consists of two 17–20-km-long left-stepping 100°-trending main fault strands that form underlapping steps bridged by 8–10-km-long ENE–WSW faults. The occurrence of large (M6.0) historical earthquakes (in 620, 677 and 700 A.D.) demonstrates repeated activation, and therefore the possible reactivation of the westernmost segment, the TGFZ, could be a major threat to the city of Thessaloniki. Changes in the Coulomb failure function (ΔCFF) due to the occurrence of the 1978 earthquake calculated out in this paper indicate that the TGFZ has been brought closer to failure, a convincing argument for future seismic hazard along the TGFZ.  相似文献   

11.
In the present work a detailed seismotectonic study of the broader area of the Mygdonia basin (N. Greece) is performed. Digital data for earthquakes which occurred in the broader Mygdonia basin and were recorded by the permanent telemetric network of the Geophysical Laboratory of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki during the period 1989–1999 were collected and fault plane solutions for 50 earthquakes which occurred in the study area were calculated with a modified first motions approach which incorporates amplitude and radiation pattern information. Fault plane solutions for the 3 main shocks of Volvi (23/05/78, MW = 5.8 and 20/06/78, MW = 6.5) and Arnaia (04/05/95, MW = 5.8) events and the 1978 aftershock sequence were additionally used. Moreover, data from two local networks established in the Mygdonia basin were also incorporated in the final dataset.Determination of the stress field was realized by the use of the method of Gephart and Forsyth [Gephart, J.W., Forsyth, D.W., 1984. An improved method for determining the regional stress tensor using earthquake focal mechanism data: application to the San Fernando earthquake sequence: Jour. Geophys. Res., v.89, no. B11, p. 9305–9320] for the stress tensor inversion and the results were compared with independent estimates based on the calculation of the average moment tensor [Papazachos, C.B.,Kiratzi, A.A., 1992. A formulation for reliable estimation of active crustal deformation and its application to central Greece. Geophys. J. Int. 111, 424–432]. The obtained stress results show a relatively good agreement between the two approaches, with differences in the azimuth of the dominant extension axis of the order of 10°. Furthermore, comparison with independent information for the mean stress axes provided by the study of kinematics on neotectonic faults [Mountrakis, D., Kilias, A., Tranos, M., Thomaidou, E., Papazachos, C., Karakaisis, G., Scordilis, E., Chatzidimitriou, P., Papadimitriou, E., Vargemezis, G., Aidona, E., Karagianni, E., Vamvakaris, D. Skarlatoudis, A. 2003. Determination of the settings and the seismotectonic behavior of the main seismic-active faults of Northern Greece area using neotectonic and seismological data. Earthquake Planning and Protection Organisation (OASP) (in Greek)] shows a similar agreement with typical misfit of the order 10°. The stress inversion method was modified in order to select one or both nodal planes of the focal mechanism which corresponds to the “true” fault plane of the occurred earthquakes and was able to select a single fault plane in the majority of examined cases. Using this approach, the obtained fault plane rose diagrams are in agreement with results from various neotectonic studies. Moreover, several secondary active fault branches were identified, which are still not clearly observed in the field.  相似文献   

12.
The mechanical interaction between an elliptically shaped magma chamber and a fault subject to transtension is investigated with particular reference to the Coso geothermal field. The geologic setting of the Coso field is interpreted as a releasing bend step-over structure formed by the Airport Lake and Owens Valley dextral strike-slip fault system. The role of the Coso volcano-magmatic center in the development of the “over-step” structure is examined by treating the magma chamber as a liquid inclusion in a viscoelastic crust containing a fault (Airport Lake). The problem is numerically solved using a 2D viscoelastic finite element model with thermally activated viscosity to account for thermal weakening of the rock. The temperature distribution around the magma body is calculated based on a 3D steady-state approach and using the mesh-less numerical method. The fault is modeled as a frictionless contact. The simulated distributions of stress and strain around the inclusion display a rotation caused by the shearing component of the applied transtension. The results indicate that the fault tends to overstep the chamber in a geometric pattern similar to a step-over. There is good correspondence between the computed distributions of the maximum shear stress in the vicinity of the magma chamber and the map of earthquake epicenters at a depth of 7–10 km in Coso.  相似文献   

13.
Yih-Min Wu  Chien-chih Chen   《Tectonophysics》2007,429(1-2):125-132
We in this study have calculated the standard normal deviate Z-value to investigate the variations in seismicity patterns in the Taiwan region before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake. We have found that the areas with relatively high seismicity in the eastern Taiwan became abnormally quiet before the Chi-Chi earthquake while the area in the central Taiwan with relatively low seismicity showed unusually active. Such a spatially changing pattern in seismicity strikingly demonstrates the phenomenon of “seismic reversal,” and we here thus present a complete, representative cycle of “seismic reversal” embedding in the changes of seismicity patterns before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake.  相似文献   

14.
Bogdan Enescu  Kiyoshi Ito   《Tectonophysics》2005,409(1-4):147-157
By using the double-difference relocation technique, we have determined the fine structure of seismicity during the 1998 Hida Mountain earthquake swarm. The distribution of seismic activity defines two main directions (N–S and E–W) that probably correspond to the regional stress pattern. The detailed structure of seismicity reveals intense spatio-temporal clustering and earthquake lineations. Each cluster of events contains a mainshock and subsequent aftershock activity that decays according to the Omori law. The seismicity and the b-value temporal and spatial patterns reflect the evolution of the static stress changes during the earthquake swarm. About 80% of the swarm's best-relocated events occur in regions of increased ΔCFF. The smaller value of b found in the northern part of the swarm region and a larger b-value observed to the south, for the same period of time, could be well explained by the static stress changes caused by the larger events of the sequence. We argue that the state of stress in the crust is the main factor that controls the variation of b-value.  相似文献   

15.
The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.  相似文献   

16.
We have developed a significant body of new field-based evidence relating to the history of crustal extension in western Turkey. We establish that two of the NE–SW-trending basins in this region, the Gördes and Selendi Basins, whose sedimentary successions begin in the early Miocene, are unlikely to relate to late-stage Alpine compressional orogeny or to E–W extension of Tibetan-type grabens as previously suggested. We argue instead that these basins are the result of earlier (?) late Oligocene, low-angle normal faulting that created approximately N–S “scoop-shaped” depressions in which clastic to lacustine and later tuffaceous sediments accumulated during early–mid-Miocene time, separated by elongate structural highs. These basins were later cut by E–W-trending (?) Plio–Quaternary normal faults that post-date accumulation of the Neogene deposits. In addition, we interpret the Alaşehir (Gediz) Graben in terms of two phases of extension, an early phase lasting from the early Miocene to the (?) late Miocene and a young Plio–Quaternary phase that is still active. Taking into account our inferred earlier phase of regional extension, we thus propose a new three-phase “pulsed extension” model for western Turkey. We relate the first two phases to “roll-back” of the south Aegean subduction zone and the third phase to the westward “tectonic escape” of Anatolia.  相似文献   

17.
The evolution of the seismogenic process associated with the Ms 5.8 Sangro Valley earthquake of May 1984 (Abruzzo, central Italy) is closely controlled by the Quaternary extensional tectonic pattern of the area. This pattern is characterised by normal faults mainly NNW striking, whose length is controlled by pre-existing Mio–Pliocene N100±10° left-lateral strike-slip fault zones. These are partly re-activated as right-lateral normal-oblique faults under the Quaternary extensional regime and behave as transfer faults.Integration of re-located aftershocks, focal mechanisms and structural features are used to explain the divergence between the alignment of aftershocks (WSW–ENE) and the direction of seismogenic fault planes defined by the focal mechanisms (NNW–SSE) of the main shock and of the largest aftershock (Ms=5.3).The faults that appear to be involved in the seismogenic process are the NNW–SSE Barrea fault and the E–W M. Greco fault. There is field evidence of finite Quaternary deformation indicating that the normal Barrea fault re-activates the M. Greco fault as right-lateral transfer fault. No surface faulting was observed during the seismic sequence. The apparently incongruent divergence between aftershocks and nodal planes may be explained by interpreting the M. Greco fault as a barrier to the propagation of earthquake rupturing. The rupture would have nucleated on the Barrea fault, migrating along-strike towards NNW. The sharp variation in direction from the Barrea to the M. Greco fault segments would have represented a structural complexity sufficient to halt the rupture and subsequent concentration of post-seismic deformation as aftershocks around the line of intersection between the two fault planes.Fault complexities, similar to those observed in the Sangro Valley, are common features of the seismic zone of the Apennines. We suggest that the zones of interaction between NW–SE and NNW–SSE Plio-Quaternary faults and nearly E–W transfer faults, extending for several kilometres in the same way as M. Greco does, might act as barriers to the along-strike propagation of rupture processes during normal faulting earthquakes. This might have strong implications on seismic hazard, especially for the extent of the maximum magnitude expected on active faults during single rupture episodes.  相似文献   

18.
L. Faenza  S. Pierdominici   《Tectonophysics》2007,439(1-4):13-31
We present two examples of statistical analysis of seismicity conducted by integrating geological, geophysical and seismological data with the aim to characterize the active stress field and to define the spatio-temporal distribution of large earthquakes. Moreover, our data will help to improve the knowledge of the “seismogenic behavior” of the areas and to provide useful information for seismic hazard evaluation.The earthquakes are described by two non-parametric statistical procedures integrating also tectonic-physical parameters to study the spatio-temporal variability.The results show that the areas are characterized by: 1) a stress regime with mainly extensional kinematics; 2) tectonic structures mainly oriented with the active stress field (Shmin = N44° ± 18° in the southern Apennines and Shmin = N50° ± 17° in the central Apennines); 3) cluster distribution of seismicity and 4) a high probability of earthquake occurrence (M > 5.5) in the next 10 years.  相似文献   

19.
The parameters “radiant flux” (energy radiated per unit area of an earthquake fault in unit time) and “radiant flux per unit displacement” reflect the power dissipated on a fault during slip. Values for moderate-to-large earthquakes range over two orders of magnitude, implying considerable variations in seismic efficiency, even for events of similar magnitude occurring on faults of the same type.  相似文献   

20.
We detect repeating earthquakes associated with the Philippine Sea plate subduction to reveal the plate configuration. In the Kanto district, we find 140 repeating earthquake groups with 428 events by waveform similarity analysis. Most repeating earthquakes in the eastern part of the Kanto district occur with a regular time interval. They have thrust-type focal mechanisms and are distributed near the upper surface of the Philippine Sea plate. These observations indicate that the repeating earthquakes there occur as a repetition of ruptures on the isolated patches distributed on the plate boundary owing to the concentration of stress caused by aseismic slips in the surrounding areas. This shows that the distributions of repeating earthquakes suggest the aseismic slips in the surrounding areas of small patches. We determine spatial distributions of repeating earthquakes in the eastern part of the Kanto district and find that they correspond to the upper boundary of the Philippine Sea plate, that is, the upper boundary of the oceanic crust layer of the Philippine Sea plate. The plate geometry around Choshi is newly constrained by repeating earthquake data and a rather flat geometry in the eastern part of the Kanto district is revealed. The obtained geometry suggests uplift of the Philippine Sea plate due to the collision with the Pacific plate beneath Choshi.Repeating earthquakes in the western part of the Kanto district have extremely shorter recurrence times, and their focal mechanisms are not of the thrust types. These repeating earthquakes are classified as “burst type” activity and likely to occur on the preexistent fault planes which are distributed around the “collision zone” between the Philippine Sea plate and the inland plate. The variation among the repeating earthquake activities in the Kanto district indicates that regular repetition of repeating earthquakes is possible only on the plate boundary with a smooth and simple geometry.  相似文献   

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