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1.
Poisson-distributed patterns of explosive eruptive activity   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The study of patterns of eruption occurrence could lead to a better understanding of the physics behind the volcanic process. However, various attempts to find a single statistical distribution that describes the occurrences of volcanic eruptions have not been successful. Global data show that, if the energies of point events in time (eruptions) are properly accounted above a certain noise level, the stochastic process — whose realization consists of explosive volcanic events — can be well represened by a Poisson point process, though not necessarily stationary. Many previous attempts to describe patterns of eruption occurrences were hampered by counting events with all levels of explosivity in the same category. When eruptions are separated by their sizes, the occurrence patterns of the higher magnitude eruptions become clearly Poissonian. In this study eruptions are classified by size using the Volcanic Explosivity Index (Newhall and Self 1982). Further analysis of the magnitude-characterized eruption data shows direct relations among the energy of eruptions, mean rate of occurrences and distribution of repose intervals between eruptions. An important result from the analysis of energy and mean rate of occurrence data is that, for global data, the product of those parameters is a constant. Simple load-and-discharge models provide an explanation of the random features of the volcanic processes. These considerations lead to the definition of a constinuous magnitude scale for volcanic eruptions which can consistently measure the energy and the rate-of-occurrence of eruptions over a wide range of values.  相似文献   

2.
The probabilistic analysis of volcanic eruption time series is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk. Such series describe complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series is proposed for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions. The first step of the analysis is to characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes. As is the case in most natural phenomena, lower magnitude events are more frequent, and the behavior of the eruption series may be biased by such events. On the other hand, eruptive series are commonly studied using conventional statistics and treated as homogeneous Poisson processes. However, time-dependent series, or sequences including rare or extreme events, represented by very few data of large eruptions require special methods of analysis, such as the extreme-value theory applied to non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Here we propose a general methodology for analyzing such processes attempting to obtain better estimates of the volcanic hazard. This is done in three steps: Firstly, the historical eruptive series is complemented with the available geological eruption data. The linking of these series is done assuming an inverse relationship between the eruption magnitudes and the occurrence rate of each magnitude class. Secondly, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Thirdly, the linked eruption series are analyzed as a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as intensity function. As an application, the method is tested on the eruption series of five active polygenetic Mexican volcanoes: Colima, Citlaltépetl, Nevado de Toluca, Popocatépetl and El Chichón, to obtain hazard estimates.  相似文献   

3.
The time distribution of the historical eruptions of Vesuvius allows the forecasting of the activity of the volcano for the next millennium according to three independent models. The next event with volcanic explosivity index (VEI)=4 is likely to occur during the next few decades followed by a decreasing number of smaller eruptions in the successive few centuries and by a very long period of quiescence up to the beginning of the following fourth millennium when the next Plinian event (VEI=5) might occur.  相似文献   

4.
Seismic data from the MVT-SLN sesmic station located 7 km from the summit area of Mt Etna volcano, which has been operating steadily for the last two decades, have been analysed together with the volcanic activity during the same period. Cross-correlation techniques are used to investigate possible relationships between seismic and volcanic data and to evaluate the statistical significance of the results. A number of significant correlations have been identified, showing that there is an evident relation between seismic events and flank eruptions, and a less clear relation with summit activity, which appears more linked to tremor rather than to the low-frequency events. Particularly interesting are the low-frequency events whose rate of occurrence increases, starting from 17 to 108 days, prior to the onset of the flank activity and are candidates for a useful precursor. On the other hand, a tendency towards the increase in both the duration and the occurrence rate of transients in the volcanic tremor was observed before the onset of summit eruptions. As a result of this study different stages in the volcanic activity of Mt Etna, represented by changes in the characteristics of the recorded seismic phenomena, are identified.  相似文献   

5.
About 4,300 years ago, 10 km3 of the upper cone of ancestral Volcán Colima collapsed to the southwest leaving a horseshoe-shaped caldera 4 km in diameter. The collapse produced a massive volcanic debris avalanche deposit covering over 1550 km2 on the southern flanks of the volcano and extending at least 70 km from the former summit. The avalanche followed a steep topographic gradient unobstructed by barriers, resulting in an unusually high area/volume ratio for the Colima deposit. The apparent coefficient of friction (fall height/distance traveled) for the Colima avalanche is 0.06, a low value similar to those of other large-volume deposits. The debris avalanche deposit contains 40–75% angular volcanic clasts from the ancestral cone, a small proportion of vesicular blocks that may be juvenile, and in distal exposures, rare carbonate clasts plucked from the underlying surface by the moving avalanche. Clasts range in size to over 20 m in diameter and are brecciated to different degrees, pulverized, and surrounded by a rock-flour matrix. The upper surface of the deposit shows prominent hummocky topography with closed depressions and surface boulders. A thick, coarse-grained, compositionally zoned scoria-fall layer on the upper northeastern slope of the volcano may have erupted at the time of collapse. A fine-grained surge layer is present beneath the avalanche deposit at one locality, apparently representing an initial blast event. Most of the missing volume of the ancestral volcano has since been restored at an average rate of 0.002 km3/yr through repeated eruptions from the post-caldera cone. As a result, the southern slope of Volcán Colima may again be susceptible to collapse. Over 200,000 people are now living on primary or secondary deposits of the debris avalanche, and a repetition of this event would constitute a volcanic disaster of great magnitude.Ancestral Volcán Colima grew on the southern, trenchward flank of the earlier and larger volcano Nevado de Colima. Trenchward collapse was favored by the buttressing effect of Nevado, the rapid elevation drop to the south, and the intrusion of magma into the southern flank of the ancestral volcano. Other such trenchward-younging, paired volcanoes are known from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Chile, and Japan. The trenchward slopes of the younger cones are common sites for cone collapse to form avalanche deposits, as occurred at Colima and Popocatepetl in Mexico and at San Pedro Volcano in Chile.  相似文献   

6.
The assessment of potential volcanic eruptions is a critical aspect when evaluating the safety of populated areas. A stochastic approach has been developed for the analysis and simulation of data sampled at active volcanoes. This approach allows for the detection and quantification of time correlation, volcanic event forecasts using Cox model based simulations and volcanic tremor decomposition in order to identify potential precursors of major eruptions. The stochastic approach has been applied to data monitored at Stromboli volcano. Significant time correlation has been detected which makes Stromboli a volcano with a remarkable memory of its recent activity in comparison to other volcanoes. Forecasting of the number of strombolian events for the next few days has been performed by Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, kriging analysis of the tremor intensity has enabled time component estimation which could furnish additional monitoring variables for the forecast of paroxysmal phases at Stromboli.  相似文献   

7.
A singularly complete record exists for the eruptive activity of Etna volcano. The time series of occurrence of flank eruptions in the period 1600–1980, in which the record is presumably complete, is found to follow a stationary Poisson process. A revision of the available data shows that eruption durations are rather well correlated with the estimates of the volume of lava flows. This implies that the magnitude of an eruption can be defined directly by its duration. Extreme value statistics are then applied to the time series, using duration as a dependent variable. The probability of occurrence of a very long (300 days) eruption is greater than 50% only in time intervals of the order of 50 years. The correlation found between duration and total output also allows estimation of the probability of occurrence of a major event which exceeds a given duration and total flow of lava. The composite probabilities do not differ considerably from the pure ones. Paralleling a well established application to seismic events, extreme value theory can be profitably used in volcanic risk estimates, provided that appropriate account is also taken of all other variables.  相似文献   

8.
 For first time, during 1991, seismic activity was recorded during an eruption at Colima volcano. We analyze these data to obtain a stress pattern using a composite focal mechanism technique. From the analysis of regional seismicity, the Tamazula Fault and the Armeria River appear as active features and the dip of the slab east of the Jalisco Block is approximately 12°. Southwest of Colima volcano a vertical alignment of seismic events was observed. We estimate five different composite focal mechanism solutions from our data set, which indicate a change of the stress field at the volcano after the 1991 eruption. These solutions suggest that the stress field in the volcanic edifice was controlled by stresses related to the emplacement of magma superimposed on the regional stress field. No evidence of active local faults in the volcanic edifice was found. We propose a model for the eruptive process that involves tilting of the volcanic edifice. Received: 15 October 1995 / Accepted: 26 October 1998  相似文献   

9.
The geological evolution of Merapi volcano, Central Java, Indonesia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Merapi is an almost persistently active basalt to basaltic andesite volcanic complex in Central Java (Indonesia) and often referred to as the type volcano for small-volume pyroclastic flows generated by gravitational lava dome failures (Merapi-type nuées ardentes). Stratigraphic field data, published and new radiocarbon ages in conjunction with a new set of 40K–40Ar and 40Ar–39Ar ages, and whole-rock geochemical data allow a reassessment of the geological and geochemical evolution of the volcanic complex. An adapted version of the published geological map of Merapi [(Wirakusumah et al. 1989), Peta Geologi Gunungapi Merapi, Jawa Tengah (Geologic map of Merapi volcano, Central Java), 1:50,000] is presented, in which eight main volcano stratigraphic units are distinguished, linked to three main evolutionary stages of the volcanic complex—Proto-Merapi, Old Merapi and New Merapi. Construction of the Merapi volcanic complex began after 170?ka. The two earliest (Proto-Merapi) volcanic edifices, Gunung Bibi (109?±?60?ka), a small basaltic andesite volcanic structure on Merapi’s north-east flank, and Gunung Turgo and Gunung Plawangan (138?±?3?ka; 135?±?3?ka), two basaltic hills in the southern sector of the volcano, predate the Merapi cone sensu stricto. Old Merapi started to grow at ~30?ka, building a stratovolcano of basaltic andesite lavas and intercalated pyroclastic rocks. This older Merapi edifice was destroyed by one or, possibly, several flank failures, the latest of which occurred after 4.8?±?1.5?ka and marks the end of the Old Merapi stage. The construction of the recent Merapi cone (New Merapi) began afterwards. Mostly basaltic andesite pyroclastic and epiclastic deposits of both Old and New Merapi (<11,792?±?90 14C years BP) cover the lower flanks of the edifice. A shift from medium-K to high-K character of the eruptive products occurred at ~1,900 14C years BP, with all younger products having high-K affinity. The radiocarbon record points towards an almost continuous activity of Merapi since this time, with periods of high eruption frequency interrupted by shorter intervals of apparently lower eruption rates, which is reflected in the geochemical composition of the eruptive products. The Holocene stratigraphic record reveals that fountain collapse pyroclastic flows are a common phenomenon at Merapi. The distribution and run-out distances of these flows have frequently exceeded those of the classic Merapi-type nuées ardentes of the recent activity. Widespread pumiceous fallout deposits testify the occurrence of moderate to large (subplinian) eruptions (VEI 3–4) during the mid to late Holocene. VEI 4 eruptions, as identified in the stratigraphic record, are an order of magnitude larger than any recorded historical eruption of Merapi, except for the 1872?AD and, possibly, the October–November 2010 events. Both types of eruptive and volcanic phenomena require careful consideration in long-term hazard assessment at Merapi.  相似文献   

10.
Iwate volcano, Japan, showed significant volcanic activity including earthquake swarms and volcano inflation from the beginning of 1998. A large earthquake of magnitude 6.1 hit the south-west of the volcano on September 3. Although a 1 km2 fumarole field formed, blighting plants on the ridge in the western part of the volcano in the spring of 1999, no magmatic eruptions occurred. We reconcile the spatio-temporal distributions of volcanic pressure sources determined by previously reported studies in which GPS, strain and tilt data from dense geodetic station networks are analyzed (Miura et al. Earth Planet Space 52:1003–1008, 2000; Sato and Hamaguchi J Volcanol Geotherm Res 155:244–262, 2006). We calculate the magma supply rates from their results and compare them with the occurrence rates of volcanic earthquakes. The results show that the magma supply rates are almost constant or even decrease with time while the earthquake occurrence rate increases with time. This contrast in their temporal changes is interpreted to result from stress accumulation in the volcanic edifice caused by constant magma supply without effusion of magma to the surface. We further show that data showing slight acceleration in strain can be best explained by magma ascent at a constant velocity, and that there is no evidence for increased magma buoyancy resulting from gas bubble growth. This consideration supports the interpretation that the magma stayed at 2 km depth and horizontally migrated. These findings relating magma supply rate and seismicity to magma ascent process are clues to understanding why no magmatic eruption occurred at Iwate volcano in 1998.  相似文献   

11.
We show how a stochastic version of a general load-and-discharge model for volcanic eruptions can be implemented. The model tracks the history of the volcano through a quantity proportional to stored magma volume. Thus large eruptions can influence the activity rate for a considerable time following, rather than only the next repose as in the time-predictable model. The model can be fitted to data using point-process methods. Applied to flank eruptions of Mount Etna, it exhibits possible long-term quasi-cyclic behavior, and to Mauna Loa, a long-term decrease in activity. An extension to multiple interacting sources is outlined, which may be different eruption styles or locations, or different volcanoes. This can be used to identify an ‘average interaction’ between the sources. We find significant evidence that summit eruptions of Mount Etna are dependent on preceding flank eruptions, with both flank and summit eruptions being triggered by the other type. Fitted to Mauna Loa and Kilauea, the model had a marginally significant relationship between eruptions of Mauna Loa and Kilauea, consistent with the invasion of the latter's plumbing system by magma from the former.  相似文献   

12.
归纳总结2017年度全球81座活火山的活动情况,共计活动1058座次,平均每周记录20座活火山的活动信息。根据火山潜在喷发的危险性和火山活动的强弱程度对上述火山进行分级描述,火山活动主要反映了地球表层的构造活动,其中大角度俯冲带的弧后火山最为强烈,小角度的俯冲带、拉张裂谷和走滑为主的板块边界火山活动较为平静,火山活动频繁的印度尼西亚岛链是受灾最为严重的区域。预计全球火山活动将进一步加剧,印尼岛链受火山灾害威胁的程度依然较大。位于印尼岛链巴厘岛上的阿贡火山自2017年9月开始活动以来,整个喷发过程极具代表性,监测阿贡火山喷发过程可为全球典型火山喷发事件研究提供参考。  相似文献   

13.
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14.
Soputan is a high-alumina basalt stratovolcano located in the active North Sulawesi-Sangihe Islands magmatic arc. Although immediately adjacent to the still geothermally active Quaternary Tondono Caldera, Soputan’s magmas are geochemically distinct from those of the caldera and from other magmas in the arc. Unusual for a basalt volcano, Soputan produces summit lava domes and explosive eruptions with high-altitude ash plumes and pyroclastic flows—eight explosive eruptions during the period 2003–2011. Our field observations, remote sensing, gas emission, seismic, and petrologic analyses indicate that Soputan is an open-vent-type volcano that taps basalt magma derived from the arc-mantle wedge, accumulated and fractionated in a deep-crustal reservoir and transported slowly or staged at shallow levels prior to eruption. A combination of high phenocryst content, extensive microlite crystallization and separation of a gas phase at shallow levels results in a highly viscous basalt magma and explosive eruptive style. The open-vent structure and frequent eruptions indicate that Soputan will likely erupt again in the next decade, perhaps repeatedly. Explosive eruptions in the Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI) 2–3 range and lava dome growth are most probable, with a small chance of larger VEI 4 eruptions. A rapid ramp up in seismicity preceding the recent eruptions suggests that future eruptions may have no more than a few days of seismic warning. Risk to population in the region is currently greatest for villages located on the southern and western flanks of the volcano where flow deposits are directed by topography. In addition, Soputan’s explosive eruptions produce high-altitude ash clouds that pose a risk to air traffic in the region.  相似文献   

15.
 Taveuni is a Fijian ocean-island volcano that sporadically erupted throughout the Holocene. The 437-km2 island is an active monogenetic volcanic field with a constantly shifting locus of activity along a single apparent rift axis. Although the eruptions were not large ( ≤VEI 2), unexpected shifts in Taveuni volcanism had the potential to affect habitation sites. Since known human settlement of the Fiji Group (ca. 950–750 BC), there have been at least 58 eruptions on Taveuni. Up to 25 of these eruptions potentially affected pre-European inhabitants of the island and at least four former occupation sites are known to have been affected by volcanic products. Despite apparent earliest settlement of Taveuni post-dating other nearby islands by up to 600 years, volcanism probably did not hinder or stall settlement of Taveuni compared with neighbouring islands. However, a period of voluminous eruptions between 300 and 500 AD covered much of south Taveuni with lava and/or thick tephra, apparently causing abandonment of at least this portion of Taveuni until approximately 1100 AD. Most eruptions were not of catastrophic proportions and, due to their localised effects, re-settlement was rapid in marginal unaffected areas. Localised stories and a relict place name survive to describe former eruption locations and effects since approximately 120–320 AD. Knowledge of the impacts on Taveuni's past inhabitants forms the basis of volcanic disaster-mitigation strategies to minimise future effects on the current 14,500 residents. Received: 9 September 1999 / Accepted: 21 February 1999  相似文献   

16.
The volcanological history of Campi Flegrei suggests that the most frequent eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of pyroclastic flow and surge deposits erupted from different vents scattered over a 150-km2 caldera. The evaluation of volcanic risk in volcanic fields is complex because of the lack of a central vent. To approach this problem, we subdivided the entire area of Campi Flegrei into a regular grid and evaluated the relative spatial probability of opening of vents based on geological, geophysical and geochemical data. We evaluated the volcanic risk caused by pyroclastic flows based on the formula proposed by UNESCO (1972), R=H×V×Va, where H is the hazard, V is the vulnerability and Va is the value of the elements at risk. The product H×V was obtained by performing simulations of type eruptions centered in each cell of the grid. The simulation is based on the energy cone scheme proposed by Sheridan and Malin [J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 17 (1983) 187–202], hypothesizing a column collapse height of 100 m for eruptions of VEI=3 and 300 m for eruptions of VEI=4 with a slope angle of 6°. Each simulation has been given the relative probability value associated with the corresponding cell. We made use of the GIS software ArcView 3.2 to evaluate the intersection between the energy cone and the topography. The superposition of the areas invaded by pyroclastic flows (124 simulations for VEI=3 and 37 for VEI=4) was used to obtain the relative hazard map of the area. The relative volcanic risk map is obtained by superimposing the urbanization maps.  相似文献   

17.
During volcanic explosions, volcanic ballistic projectiles (VBP) are frequently ejected. These projectiles represent a threat to people, infrastructure, vegetation, and aircraft due to their high temperatures and impact velocities. In order to protect people adequately, it is necessary to delimit the projectiles’ maximum range within well-defined explosion scenarios likely to occur in a particular volcano. In this study, a general methodology to delimit the hazard zones for VBP during volcanic eruptions is applied to Popocatépetl volcano. Three explosion scenarios with different intensities have been defined based on the past activity of the volcano and parameterized by considering the maximum kinetic energy associated with VBP ejected during previous eruptions. A ballistic model is used to reconstruct the “launching” kinetic energy of VBP observed in the field. In the case of Vulcanian eruptions, the most common type of activity at Popocatépetl, the ballistic model was used in concert with an eruptive model to correlate ballistic range with initial pressure and gas content, parameters that can be estimated by monitoring techniques. The results are validated with field data and video observations of different Vulcanian eruptions at Popocatépetl. For each scenario, the ballistic model is used to calculate the maximum range of VBP under optimum “launching” conditions: ballistic diameter, ejection angle, topography, and wind velocity. Our results are presented in the form of a VBP hazard map with topographic profiles that depict the likely maximum ranges of VBP under explosion scenarios defined specifically for Popocatépetl volcano. The hazard zones shown on the map allow the responsible authorities to plan the definition and mitigation of restricted areas during volcanic crises.  相似文献   

18.
文中对腾冲火山区1998—2004年水准及重力观测资料进行了分析,发现垂直形变量大多在±10mm之内,重力变化为几十μGal,火山锥体和断层附近点位活动异常较大,可综合应用多源mogi模型和断层模型解释,断层的活动可使相邻测点的形变方向相反;垂直形变和重力的逐年变化表明火山岩浆处于一种活动状态。将火山区点位各时间段的重力梯度展布在形变-重力关系解释图中,发现数据主要落在Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅳ和Ⅴ区,结合形变量对压力源等效体积的估算,初步认为火山区岩浆目前活动程度较低,暂没有喷发的危险  相似文献   

19.
Broadband seismic data collected on Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand, in 1994 and 1998 show that the 1995-1996 eruptions of Ruapehu resulted in a significant change in the frequency content of tremor and volcanic earthquakes at the volcano. The pre-eruption volcanic seismicity was characterized by several independent dominant frequencies, with a 2 Hz spectral peak dominating the strongest tremor and volcanic earthquakes and higher frequencies forming the background signal. The post-eruption volcanic seismicity was dominated by a 0.8-1.4 Hz spectral peak not seen before the eruptions. The 2 Hz and higher frequency signals remained, but were subordinate to the 0.8-1.4 Hz energy. That the dominant frequencies of volcanic tremor and volcanic earthquakes were identical during the individual time periods prior to and following the 1995-1996 eruptions suggests that during each of these time periods the volcanic tremor and earthquakes were generated by the same source process. The overall change in the frequency content, which occurred during the 1995-1996 eruptions and remains as of the time of the writing of this paper, most likely resulted from changes in the volcanic plumbing system and has significant implications for forecasting and real-time assessment of future eruptive activity at Ruapehu.  相似文献   

20.
Mount Nemrut, an active stratovolcano in eastern Turkey, is a great danger for its vicinity. The volcano possesses a summit caldera which cuts the volcano into two stages, i.e. pre- and post-caldera. Wisps of smoke and hot springs are to be found within the caldera. Although the last recorded volcanic activity is known to have been in 1441, we consider here that the last eruption of Nemrut occurred more recently, probably just before 1597. The present active tectonic regime, historical eruptions, occurrence of mantle-derived magmatic gases and the fumarole and hot spring activities on the caldera floor make Nemrut Volcano a real danger for its vicinity. According to the volcanological past of Nemrut, the styles of expected eruptions are well-focused on two types: (1) occurrence of water within the caldera leads to phreatomagmatic (highly energetic) eruptions, subsequently followed by lava extrusions, and (2) effusions–extrusions (non-explosive or weakly energetic eruptions) on the flanks from fissures. To predict the impact area of future eruptions, a series of morphological analyses based on field observations, Digital Elevation Model and satellite images were realized. Twenty-two valleys (main transport pathways) were classified according to their importance, and the physical parameters related to the valleys were determined. The slope values in each point of the flanks and the Heim parameters H/L were calculated. In the light of morphological analysis the possible impact areas around the volcano and danger zones were proposed. The possible transport pathways of the products of expected volcanic events are unified in three main directions: Bitlis, Guroymak, Tatvan and Ahlat cities, the about 135 000 inhabitants of which could be threatened by future eruptions of this poorly known and unsurveyed volcano.  相似文献   

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