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Study on hydroclimatological changes in the mountainous river basins has attracted great interest in recent years. Changes in temperature, precipitation and river discharge pattern could be considered as indicators of hydroclimatological changes of the river basins. In this study, the temperatures （maximum and minimum）, precipitation, and discharge data from 1980 to 2009 were used to detect the hydroclimatological changes in the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal. Simple linear regression and Mann-Kendall test statistic were used to examine the significant trend of temperature, precipitation, and discharge. Increasing trend of temperature was found in all seasons, although the change rate was different in different seasons for both minimum and maximum temperatures. However, stronger warming trend was found in maximum temperature in comparison to the minimum in the whole basin. Both precipitation and discharge trend were increasing in the pre-monsoon season, but decreasing in the post-monsoon season. The significant trend of precipitation could not be observed in winter, although discharge trend was decreasing. Furthermore, the intensity of peak discharge was increasing, though there was not an obvious change in the intensity of maximum precipitation events. It is expected that all these changes have effects on agriculture, hydropower plant, and natural biodiversity in the mountainous river basin of Nepal. 相似文献
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泥沙动态研究目前仍然不够完善, 尤其是在黄土丘陵沟壑区, 有关泥沙传输时间动态的 研究论文还不多见。本文利用岔巴沟下游长达8 年的水沙资料, 探讨了该区不同时间尺度( 洪水 内、月和季节及年际尺度) 上泥沙传输动态。结果表明, 在洪水内时间尺度上, 洪峰超前于沙峰的 事件占洪水事件总数的63.2%, 洪峰和沙峰同时发生及洪峰落后于沙峰的洪水事件则各占 18.4%左右。受高含沙水流的影响, 洪水事件产流量- 含沙量呈现逆时针滞后环, 而与洪峰和沙峰 出现的先后顺序无关。在月和季节尺度上, 存在着可蚀物质“储备- 释放”的过程, 即在晚秋(10 和 11 月份)、冬季和春季可蚀物质是一个积聚过程, 在夏季和早秋( 9 月份) 是泥沙输出流域的释放 过程。在年际尺度上, 含沙量和产沙量年际变化大, 主要与年内发生的洪水事件次数和幅度有关。 相似文献
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Groundwater is a vital water resource in the arid to semi-arid southwestern United States. Accurate accounting of inflows to and outflows from the groundwater system is necessary to effectively manage this shared resource, including the important outflow component of groundwater discharge by vegetation. A simple method for estimating basin-scale groundwater discharge by vegetation is presented that uses remote sensing data from satellites, geographic information systems (GIS) land cover and stream location information, and a regression equation developed within the Southern Arizona study area relating the Enhanced Vegetation Index from the MODIS sensors on the Terra satellite to measured evapotranspiration. Results computed for 16-day composited satellite passes over the study area during the 2000 through 2007 time period demonstrate a sinusoidal pattern of annual groundwater discharge by vegetation with median values ranging from around 0.3 mm per day in the cooler winter months to around 1.5 mm per day during summer. Maximum estimated annual volume of groundwater discharge by vegetation was between 1.4 and 1.9 billion m3 per year with an annual average of 1.6 billion m3. A simplified accounting of the contribution of precipitation to vegetation greenness was developed whereby monthly precipitation data were subtracted from computed vegetation discharge values, resulting in estimates of minimum groundwater discharge by vegetation. Basin-scale estimates of minimum and maximum groundwater discharge by vegetation produced by this simple method are useful bounding values for groundwater budgets and groundwater flow models, and the method may be applicable to other areas with similar vegetation types. 相似文献
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Variability and spatial modeling of fine-scale precipitation data for the Sonoran Desert of south-west Arizona 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
We present a unique new set of high spatial resolution precipitation data from a storage gauge network, for the sparsely observed northern Sonoran desert in south-west Arizona. We examine the nature and causes of the highly complex seasonal and spatial variability in the data, using fine-scale maps developed via spatial modeling and interpolation. These high-resolution maps had explained variances approaching 1·00, and precipitation errors of about 1% in winter and about 10% in summer. Seasonal precipitation ranges from near zero to almost 15 in across the area, and shows high interannual variability. Localized convectional processes lead to summer anomalies that are more spatially complex than in winter when broad-scale synoptic and frontal processes cause precipitation. In general, summer and winter precipitation variability are tied to meridional-zonal shifts and east–west movement of the respective anticyclone or trough pattern over the region. Statistical links between major weather stations in the region and precipitation across the area are spatially inconsistent, especially in the west. 相似文献
6.
Albert J. Parker 《自然地理学》2013,34(4):349-367
A 20-year (1961-1980) record of statewide extreme maximum and minimum temperatures for the winter season is examined for the coterminous United States. Extreme maxima exhibit a zonal pattern, modified somewhat by terrain features in the west. Extreme minima are more dramatically skewed from a zonal orientation, because of the effects of elevation and proximity to oceans. Interannual variability in the record of extreme temperatures appears to be dictated by proximity to air-mass source regions (e.g., low variability of minima in the Upper Midwest, low variability of maxima in the Deep South) and sensitivity to the position and amplitude of mid-tropospheric circulation and snowpack dynamics (e.g., high variability of minima in the Ohio Valley). Strong, spatially coherent patterns of correlation between statewide extremes and amplitude of midtropospheric flow are evident (negative correlation with enhanced troughing in the east; positive correlation with enhanced ridging in the west). Lag correlations with ENSO indices suggest a relatively weak linkage between antecedent conditions in the Pacific and the degree of extremeness of maximum (but not minimum) temperatures in the eastern United States. [Key words: extreme maximum temperatures, extreme minimum temperatures, climatic variability, meridionality indices, El Nino-Southern Oscillation, snowpack.] 相似文献
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On the basis of analyzing long-term field data, we investigated the vertical thermal structure of 66 lakes of the North-West of Russia during the freeze-up period. The largest variability in thermal structure is characteristic for low-drainage shallow water bodies. Detailed data were obtained at self-contained buoy stations located in a small Lake Vendyurskoe (southern Karelia) were used to identify water temperature changes at the depths for a winter season as well as making assessments of het flows at the water–bottom and water–ice interfaces. The interannual water temperature variability at the depths reaches 2°C. The main geographical factors influencing the formation of thermal stratifications in the 66 lakes used in the study during the winter period are their mean depth, area, water residence time and geographical latitude. The largest vertical water temperature gradients are characteristic for the group of the smallest and shallow lakes, in the bottom layers of which the water temperature exceeds the temperature of maximum density, whereas in the deep lakes (more than 15 m) the water temperature is below 4°C. The lowest values of water temperature are observed in large lakes. The water temperature in the upper layer (up to 10 m) of drainage water bodies also decreases to 0–1°C as the result of the removal of heat with the river discharge. According to the thermal stratifications, the lakes are categorized as small (shallow, deep and drainage lakes), medium-sized and large shallow and large deep lakes. The suggested regression model permits a typical water temperature to be assessed at standard depths at the end of a winter season for any water body in the study region using available geographical information. The verification of the model is done from independent data for eight lakes of Finland. 相似文献
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基于GAMLSS 模型的宜昌站年径流序列趋势分析 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
在变化环境下, 研究非一致性水文序列的变化趋势具有重要意义。常规的趋势分析方法一般只能分析水文序列均值的线性趋势。本文引入GAMLSS模型对宜昌站1882-2009 年间的年平均流量序列和年最小月流量序列分别进行趋势分析, 将序列的趋势分析从均值扩展至均方差(或变差系数)、偏态系数等其他统计参数。研究发现宜昌站年平均流量序列的均值有明显线性减少的趋势, 而宜昌站年最小月流量序列线性趋势不明显。在此基础上, 建立基于多项式回归的GAMLSS模型, 结果表明宜昌站年最小月流量序列并非平稳序列, 其均值表现为非线性的趋势变化, 偏态系数呈现线性的趋势变化。 相似文献
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Photosynthesis-irradiance relationships in natural phytoplankton populations of the Barents Sea 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
FRANCISCO REY 《Polar research》1991,10(1):105-116
An analysis is made of the photosynthesis-irradiance relationships in natural phytoplankton populations in the Barents Sea. The data set comprises 232 experiments carried out during a 10-year period, both in open and ice-covered waters. The variability on the P-I parameters is discussed and examined in relation to the variation in a variety of environmental conditions. The results suggest that in the Barents Sea, as in other Arctic areas, phytoplankton photosynthesis is mainly controlled by physical variables. However, control of the phytoplankton stock, i.e. by zooplankton grazing, seems also to have a considerable indirect influence on P-I parameters, especially after the spring bloom and the depletion of winter nutrients. 相似文献
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The spatial and temporal variability of primary productivity in the China seas from 2003 to 2005 was estimated using a size-fractionated primary productivity model. Primary productivity estimated from satellite-derived data showed spatial and temporal variability. Annual averaged primary productivity levels were 564.39, 363.08, 536.47, 413.88, 195.77, and 100.09 gCm-2a-1 in the Bohai Sea, northern Yellow Sea (YS), southern YS, northern East China Sea (ECS), southern ECS, and South China Sea (SCS), respectively. Peaks of primary productivity appeared in spring (April–June) and fall (October and November) in the northern YS, southern YS, and southern ECS, while a single peak (June) appeared in the Bohai Sea and northern ECS. The SCS had two peaks in primary productivity, but these peaks occurred in winter (January) and summer (August), with the winter peak far higher than the summer peak. Monthly averaged primary productivity values from 2003 to 2005 in the Bohai Sea and southern YS were higher than those in the other four seas during most months, while those in the southern ECS and SCS were the lowest. Primary productivity in spring (March–June in the southern ECS and April–July in the other five areas) contributed approximately 41% on average to the annual primary productivity in all the study seas except the SCS. The largest interannual variability also occurred in spring (average standard deviation = 6.68), according to the satellite-derived estimates. The contribution during fall (October–January in the southern ECS and August–November in the other five areas) was approximately 33% on average; the primary productivity during this period also showed interannual variability. However, in the SCS, the winter (December–March) contribution was the highest (about 42%), while the spring (April–July) contribution was the lowest (28%). The SCS did share a feature with the other five areas: the larger the contribution, the larger the interannual variability. Spatial and temporal variability of satellite-derived ocean primary productivity may be influenced by physicochemical environmental conditions, such as the chlorophyll-a concentration, sea surface temperature, photosynthetically available radiation, the seasonally reversed monsoon, river discharge, upwelling, and the Kuroshio and coastal currents. 相似文献
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Biologists have considered both winter coldness and temperature seasonality as major determinants of the northern limits of plants and animals in the Northern Hemisphere,which in turn drive the well-known latitudinal diversity gradient.However,few studies have tested which of the two climate variables is the primary determinant.In this study,we assess whether winter coldness or temperature seasonality is more strongly associated with the northern latitudinal limits of tree species and with tree species richness in North Amedca.Tree species were recorded in each of 1198 quadrats of 110 km × 110 km in North America.We used correlation and regression analyses to assess the relationship of the latitude of the northern boundary of each species,and of species richness per quadrat,with winter coldness and temperature seasonality.Species richness was analyzed within 38 longitudinal,i.e.,north-south,bands (each being ＞1100 km long and 110 km wide).The latitudes of the north-ern range limits of tree species were three times better correlated with minimum temperatures at those latitudes than with temperature seasonality.On average,minimum temperature and temperature seasonality together explained 81.5％ of the variation in the northern range limits of the tree species examined,and minimum temperature uniquely explained six-fold (33.7％versus 5.8％) more of this variation than did temperature seasonality.Correlations of tree species richness with minimum temperatures were stronger than correlations with tempera-ture seasonality for most of the longitudinal bands analyzed.Compared to temperature sea-sonality,winter coldness is more strongly associated with species distributions at high lati-tudes,and is likely a more important driver of the latitudinal diversity gradient. 相似文献
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冬季气候变暖对山西省冬小麦可种植区的影响 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
基于山西省境内较为均匀分布的70 个地面气象观测站1970-2012 年冬季逐日气温资料,采用线性倾向估计法分析了负积温、最冷月平均气温和年极端最低气温的变化特征,采用累积距平法确定其突变点,以突变点为界分为前后2 个时间段,依据前后时间段等值线的变化分析冬季气候变暖对山西省冬小麦可种植区的影响。结果表明：山西省负积温呈现显著减少趋势（通过了α=0.01 的显著检验）,最冷月平均气温和年极端最低气温呈现不显著升高趋势;突变后,负积温平均减少了103.4℃,最冷月平均气温和年极端最低气温分别升高了0.8℃和0.7℃;在3 个指标中,决定山西省冬小麦能否种植的关键因子是负积温和年极端最低气温,最冷月平均气温的影响较小;冬季气候变暖后,平均状况下,冬小麦可种植区域面积扩大了约2.9×106 hm2,扩大52%,80%保证率下,冬小麦种植面积扩大了约2.3×106 hm2,扩大79%。 相似文献
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利用1975-2015年辽宁省52站逐日最低气温资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,通过合成分析、相关分析等统计方法,对辽宁省冬季最低气温及北太平洋风暴轴的时空演变特征进行研究,初步探讨了北太平洋风暴轴的异常活动与辽宁省冬季最低气温的可能联系。结果表明,辽宁省冬季最低气温突变年为1986年,20世纪80年代中期以后气温表现出偏暖特征。北太平洋风暴轴与辽宁省冬季最低气温间存在同步一致地变化特征,风暴轴活动强年,辽宁省受西南气流控制,阿留申低压、西伯利亚高压强度减弱,同时东亚大槽减弱北退,东亚西风急流偏北,东亚冬季风系统活动减弱,不利于冷空气向南侵袭,辽宁省冬季最低气温偏高,反之在风暴轴活动弱年,辽宁省冬季最低气温偏低。与北太平洋风暴轴相关联的中高纬度大气环流异常变化是风暴轴强度与辽宁省冬季最低气温关系产生变化的主要原因。 相似文献
14.
S. Begzsuren J. E. Ellis D. S. Ojima M. B. Coughenour T. Chuluun 《Journal of Arid Environments》2004,59(4):50
We investigated how both droughts and dzuds (severe winter weather) control livestock mortality in a non-equilibrium steppe ecosystem of Mongolia, Gobi Three Beauty National Park. These steppe ecosystems have developed under high interannual variability of rainfall and nomadic grazing systems. Interannual precipitation variation was 39%, with 128 mm mean annual precipitation. The effect of climate variability and extreme events on livestock mortality is a critical aspect for the Mongolian economy. Analysis of drought and precipitation variability on livestock mortality rate was not significantly influenced by the index of mean annual precipitation and annual winter temperature. Overall, unlike hot dry regions, pastoral livestock mortality in the cold dry regions was affected more by dzuds and annual growing seasonal rain than by droughts. Dzuds can be frequent events, occurring as often as once every 2 and 3 years within a decade. The average annual livestock mortality for the combined drought and dzuds years (18%) was 4.8% greater than the years with dzuds alone, and 7% greater than in years with only drought. Thus livestock mortality appears to be more sensitive to dzuds than to droughts, and that dzuds contributes more to livestock mortality even years where combined drought and winter storms occur. 相似文献
15.
YAN Yuk Yee 《地理学报(英文版)》1999,(2)
1IntroductionThereisgrowingawarenessofclhatechange,andnumerousresearchonclhatictrendsandvallabilityatglobalorregionalscalehasbenconductedMoStstudieshaveconcen~onthelong-tenntrendsintemperatUI'eandPeripiboonpiousstudiesonhendSPherictempo~bendshavebeenconducted.AngellandKorshover(1977ac1978)StUdiedthetemperatUresinthenodsmhelinSPhereandstatedthattherewasadeClineoftemperatUreSinthe1960sandaslightw~gwasObservedafter197ill;l.OtherauthorssuchasLamb(1982)andJonesetal.(1982and1986a)SUPPOrted… 相似文献
16.
Flood seasonality and generating conditions in the Tay catchment, Scotland from 1200 to present 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Lindsey J McEwen 《Area》2006,38(1):47-64
The new maximum recorded river flows in Scotland since 1988 have triggered widespread interest in whether floods are becoming more frequent and in the conditions that generate floods of different magnitudes and frequencies. There are questions about the longer-term variability in flood-generating characteristics, and whether there are past analogues for present hydroclimatic variability. The present paper builds on previous work reconstructing a detailed historic flood chronology for the Tay, the largest catchment in Scotland, and its tributaries over the past 800 years, extending the gauged discharge record (1952 onwards). It categorizes flood-generating factors in the Tay catchment and analyses the hydro-meteorological conditions that have generated extreme and moderate floods over a historical period. This work is placed in a broader literature context of historical 'climaxes of storminess', periods of higher storm frequency, flood patterns observed in Scotland and Europe during the Little Ice Age and longer-term rainfall and temperature patterns. The paper concludes that the variability in flood-generating characteristics is highly dependent on the timescale of observation. Inevitably the relative dominance of winter and early spring flooding can vary from year to year and within specific time-periods, but so can the level of augmentation of the flood series with summer and autumn floods to produce notable 'flood years' and flood clusters. The Tay provides a good 'all-Scotland surrogate' for historical flood patterns, reflecting its gathering areas in eastern and western Scotland. The value of a historical approach to the assessment of flood seasonality and generating characteristics is clearly demonstrated. 相似文献
17.
近50余年来南海西沙海域冬季风强度的变率 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
采用南海西沙永兴岛海洋观察站1958~1997年12~2月实测的北东向冬季风风速的平均值作为冬季风强度指数 (WMI),与南海北缘滨珊瑚的相应年月份的实测δ18O平均值进行相关分析,得到线性回归方程WMI (m/s) = - 4.913- 2.138δ18O (‰),r = 0.83, n = 40。在计算(后报) 所得的1944~1997年代际变化序列中,WMI在40~60年代呈下降趋势,70年代略有上升,而80~90年代又呈下降趋势。在年际变化序列中,WMI呈显著的下降趋势,所得线性回归方程为WMI = 79.67-0.0377 Year, r = 0.68, n = 54。由斜率看出,WMI每10年平均下降约0.4 m/s。用Daniell功率谱法分析,近54年来WMI的变化存在2.5~7年的周期,与季风的QBO周期为2~2.4年,以及ENSO活动的3~8年周期密切相关。WMI连续下降的趋势是与全球持续变暖相映,南海海域冬季风强度的变化受到了全球变化的制约。 相似文献
18.
乌兰布和沙漠不同下垫面冬季沙尘通量 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
为揭示乌兰布和沙漠不同下垫面冬季沙尘通量的垂直分布,在野外实地监测的基础上对乌兰布和沙漠3种下垫面冬季输沙量进行测量分析。结果表明：近地表0～100 cm高度内冬季输沙量流动沙丘 > 梭梭固定沙丘 > 白刺半固定沙丘。各下垫面输沙量随高度呈下降趋势,流动沙丘、白刺半固定沙丘、梭梭固定沙丘符合幂函数分布,流动沙丘、梭梭固定沙丘输沙量集中于0～20 cm高度,白刺半固定沙丘集中于0～40 cm高度。风沙流幂函数通量系数a、b与粒径< 0.1 mm和粒径 >0.5 mm颗粒含量负相关,与粒径0.1～0.25 mm颗粒含量正相关,与粒径0.25～0.5 mm颗粒含量不相关。沙粒跃移高度在流动沙丘、白刺半固定沙丘和梭梭固定沙丘分别集中于0～3.59、0～4.33和0～2.36 cm;跃移高度与粒径<0.05 mm和0.1～0.5 mm颗粒含量正相关,尤其与粒径0.1～0.25 mm颗粒含量呈指数函数正相关,与粒径0.05～0.1 mm及>0.5 mm颗粒含量无明显相关性。乌兰布和沙漠流动沙丘在冬季仍具有较大的侵蚀状态,白刺半固定沙丘处于弱风蚀状态,梭梭固定沙丘处于堆积状态,造成地表积沙。在冬季,梭梭固定沙丘仍然发挥着防风固沙的能力,成为冬季固定风沙的重要防线。 相似文献
19.
1 Introduction Ocean primary productivity controls the exchange of carbon dioxide at the air-sea interface and plays an important role in the global carbon cycle and climate change. Most oceanographic research on primary productivity has focused on the ma… 相似文献
20.
近50年青藏高原东部冬季积雪的时空变化特征 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
选取青藏高原东部地区1961-2010 年64 个测站的积雪数据,分析了冬季积雪日数的空间分布和年代际变化特征,结果表明：高原东部冬季积雪空间分布差异较大,巴颜喀拉山、唐古拉山和念青唐古拉山多雪且变率大,藏南谷地、川西干暖河谷地带及柴达木盆地少雪且变率小,这样的空间分布是由周边大气环流系统及复杂局地地形共同造成的;高原东部冬季积雪表现出“少—多—少”的年代际变化特征,分别在80 年代末和20 世纪末发生由少到多和由多到少的两次突变,尤其是20 世纪末的突变更为显著;降雪和气温的变化是影响积雪日数的重要因素,其中降雪的影响更为显著;80 年代末高原冬季降雪由少到多的突变是造成积雪日数发生相应变化的主要原因;20 世纪末高原冬季气温和降雪分别发生由低到高和由多到少突变,其影响叠加导致积雪日数发生了更为显著的突变。 相似文献