共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Simulating agricultural drought periods based on daily rainfall and crop water consumption 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Even though drought is difficult to define precisely, rainfall is the most widely used indicator of drought. This paper presents a methodology on modeling of the agricultural drought duration. For this purpose, study area was divided into four hydrologic homogeneous sections as W, CN, CS and E. To constitute the monthly time series of each section, the number of days in each month in which daily rainfall was less than the water consumption of the critical crop was assumed to be drought periods. Then, constituted monthly time series of drought durations of each hydrologic homogeneous section was simulated using ARIMA model. No linear trend was observed for the time series except that of the CS section. In general, the predicted data from the selected best models for the time series of each section represents the actual data of that section. 相似文献
2.
《地理学报(英文版)》2019,(11)
The risk posed by natural disasters can be largely reflected by hazard and vulnerability. The analysis of long-term hazard series can reveal the mechanisms by which risk changes. Drought disasters are one of the main types of disaster in the Tibet Region(TR) of China. In this study, using statistical drought disasters data in the TR from 1912 to 2012 and socio-economic statistics for five periods between 1965 and 2015, and adopting standard statistical analyses, a wavelet analysis, and a risk assessment model, we first construct the index system for drought disaster risk assessment, and then assess the risk of drought disasters and analyze the mechanisms of changes in risk. The results showed that the occurrence of drought in the TR had three distinct cycles during this study periods, with durations of 5, 15, and 27 years respectively. The frequency of drought in the TR showed increasing trends, and the cycle of drought had been prolonged. From 1965 to 2015, the risk of drought disaster in the TR is significantly increased with the growth rate of 6.8% in high-risk area. In addition, the severity of drought had enhanced, especially in Qamdo. The increased vulnerability locally and significantly enhanced hazard of drought disaster, with a shrinkage of 16.3% in the low-value area and an expansion of 7.4% in the high-value area, being the determinants of drought disaster risk. Therefore, agricultural areas of the TR are the focal locations where risk of drought disaster needs to be managed. 相似文献
3.
Rainfall Variability in Murang'a District, Kenya: Meteorological Data and Farmers' Perception 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
This study examines meteorological data and farmers' perception of rainfall in the Central Highlands of Kenya. Rainfall data from five meteorological stations during the period from 1947 to 1996 were analysed on an annual and a monthly basis. Daily data exist from 1957 and analyses from 1957 to 1996 were done on a daily basis. Discussions were held with 60 farmers about rainfall and its variation. Ten of these farmers were interviewed with a questionnaire about rainfall. Analysing annual precipitation and rain periods gave no clear trends over the study period. Results from analysing the growing seasons for maize, the main annual crop, and periods during which maize plants are sensitive to drought showed decreasing trends in rainfall amounts for the study period. Results from the interviews indicate that most of the farmers think rainfall has decreased over the last 40 years. Farmers'perceptions of rainfall are related to periods when the main food and annual crop require water and not to the periods scientists often analyse, i.e. annual and rain periods. More research and better advice from agricultural extension workers to farmers are necessary to enable this area to sustain itself in sufficient food production if the decreasing trends during the growing seasons and drought-sensitive periods continue. 相似文献
4.
中国干旱灾害评估与空间特征分析(英文) 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
Based on the monthly precipitation data for the period 1960-2008 from 616 rainfall stations and the phenology data of main grain crops,the spatial characteristics of drought hazard in China were investigated at a 10 km×10 km grid-cell scale using a GIS-based drought hazard assessment model,which was constructed by using 3-month Standard Pre-cipitation Index (SPI).Drought-prone areas and heavy drought centers were also identified in this study.The spatial distribution of drought hazard in China shows apparent east-west dif-ference,with the eastern part of China being far more hazardous than the western part.High hazard areas are common in the eastern and central parts of Inner Mongolian Plateau,the central part of Northeast China Plain,the northern part of Heilongjiang,the southeastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,the central and southern parts of Loess Plateau,the southern part of North China Plain,the northern and southern parts of Yangtze River Plain,and Yun-nan-Guizhou Plateau.Furthermore,obvious differences in drought hazard were found both within and between different agricultural zonings. 相似文献
5.
Singh J Gosal RP 《Population geography : a journal of the Association of Population Geographers of India》1986,8(1-2):50-57
The spatial patterns in the density of rural population in an area are a function of the complex interplay of physical, economic, social, and technological forces. However, natural forces play a more prominent role than others in this respect. This is especially true of the developing world where application of modern technologies is limited and economies are predominantly agricultural in nature. This paper establishes quantitatively the superiority of the physical environment in effecting spatial patterns in the density of the rural population in Punjab. Only 3 variables taken from natural setup, rainfall, soil, and water, jointly explain over 53% of the spatial variance in the density of the rural population in Punjab. This clearly proves the supremacy of physical forces over others in determining spatial patterns in the density of the rural population in an agricultural area of the developing world. However, the concept needs further testing in some similar areas to establish its validity on a wider scale. 相似文献
6.
黄淮海平原雨养条件下冬小麦水分胁迫分析 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
雨养条件下的水分胁迫分析能够反映当地气候土壤条件下作物生长的水分环境对农作物生长的影响,可为农业干旱管理及灌溉策略的实施提供依据,减少农业干旱的发生。本文在阐述EPIC(Environmental Policy Integrated Climate Model)作物生长模型水分胁迫计算过程的基础上,模拟黄淮海平原冬小麦在雨养条件下的生长过程,分析水分胁迫现象的时空分异。结果发现,研究区内自然降雨远不能满足冬小麦的正常生长,从水分胁迫现象发生时间上讲,雨养条件下在冬小麦生长期后段(5月中旬以后)水分胁迫现象较为严重,以5月下旬最为严重,重度水分胁迫发生频率高达48.2%;从区域分布上分析,冀鲁豫低洼平原区和山东丘陵农林区水分胁迫现象在整个研究时间段上均较为突出。 相似文献
7.
Mekonnen A. Degefu Woldeamlak Bewket 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2015,97(2):395-414
The objective of this paper is to evaluate trends and spatial patterns of drought incidence across the Omo‐Ghibe River Basin using monthly rainfall data from eight stations for the period 1972–2007. It also aims to estimate the probability of drought episodes for a 100‐year period. Drought indices were generated using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) computed at 3‐, 6‐, 12‐ and 24‐month time‐steps for three intensity classes: moderate, severe and extreme drought events. The Mann–Kendall's trend test and Sen's slope estimator were employed to detect temporal changes. The results show complex spatial patterns on the frequency and magnitude of drought events across the study area for all timescales and intensity classes. However, the total number of drought events for the three intensity classes for all timescales were larger in the southern lowlands, where there exists a serious water scarcity for the rain‐fed pastoral system, than in the northeastern part (around Wolaita Sodo area). In contrast to this, the longest and most extreme (SPI < ?4.0) drought events for all timescales were observed at Wolaita Sodo station. In a 100‐year period one could expect 57–69 drought events with 3 months' duration, 19–34 events with 6 months' duration, 9–16 events with 12 months' duration and 5–9 events with 24 months' duration. The SPI values show negative rainfall anomalies in the 1980s while positive anomalies have occurred in the 1990s and 2000s, which implies tendency towards decreasing drought events. The Mann–Kendall's trend test for the 12‐ and 24‐month timescales and for seasonal events also confirms this general trend. 相似文献
8.
湖南省农业水问题浅析 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
湖南省雨水丰沛，农业水资源总量完全可满足农业生产需要和支持其持续发展。但时空分布不均带来了一系列水问题：山丘区的季节性干旱和洪灾，平原区的涝灾；水资源开发利用效率、农田水分生产率低以及工业和城市用水压力等。解决湖南农业可持续发展的水问题，首先是强化雨水资源化过程，加强原有农业水利工程设施的修缮和配套建设，努力建设新的农田灌溉设施；改革农业水管理体制和制度，逐步实现农业水管理的“用水有偿化、投资多元化、经营企业化、管理法制化”；另外要立足省情，推进农业科学用水研究，提高水分生产力。 相似文献
9.
J.D. Miranda C. Armas F.M. Padilla F.I. Pugnaire 《Journal of Arid Environments》2011,75(12):1302-1309
The structure and functioning of semi-arid ecosystems are strongly influenced by precipitation patterns. Water availability in such environments is highly pulsed, and discrete rainfall events interspersed with drought periods are important components of the annual water supply. Plant communities do not only respond to rainfall quantity, but also to variations in time, so that relatively small changes in rainfall frequency (i.e., pulsed inputs) may have strong effects on communities. Within the Mediterranean basin, climate change models forecast a decrease in mean annual precipitation and more extreme events (i.e., less rainy days and longer drought periods between events), along with seasonal changes. However, little is known on the consequences of these future precipitation changes on plant communities, especially in semi-arid environments. Here, we summarize the few experiments that have manipulated rainfall patterns in arid and semi-arid areas worldwide, and introduce the first results of a pioneer, long-term rainfall exclusion in the semi-arid southeast region of the Iberian Peninsula. The experiment is not only manipulating the amount of rainfall, but also its frequency and seasonal distribution in a grassland-shrubland in the Tabernas desert (Almería, Spain). This work monitored the effect of precipitation changes on different ecosystem processes for five years, at the species and community level, concluding that this plant community (as other communities studied in the same area) exhibited great resilience to changes in rainfall availability, likely caused by plant adaptation to large intra- and inter-annual precipitation variability. 相似文献
10.
红壤丘陵区土地可持续利用中的干旱约束与调控研究 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3
本文选择红壤丘陵区江西余江县作为研究样点 ,运用Zi指数等定量方法衡量区域干旱问题 ,辨识区域存在的干旱及其类别等级 ;运用“制约强度指数”衡量干旱对土地农业利用的约束程度。研究表明 ,红壤丘陵区一定频度的干旱 ,制约着土地利用的过程、形式与效果及其时空变异性 ,其制约强度与土地利用的方式及其结构、作物种类等密切相关。旱地的盲目扩展等不适当人为活动 ,在水利效用受局限之后对干旱成灾的影响作用日渐突出。科学的调控不仅需要完善水利工程网络建设 ,对水源利用采取蓄、引、节、保措施 ,也需要改进土地利用模式与技术 ,重视修订总体规划并进行土地利用的结构性调整。 相似文献
11.
利用辽西北地区39个雨量站1971-2013年逐日降水资料,选取Z指数为指标,根据国家干旱等级标准和辽西北实际情况对不同等级干旱所对应的界限值进行修正,基于修正后的Z指数,采用小波分析方法和Kriging空间插值法对辽西北地区春旱时空演变规律进行分析。结果表明：在辽西北地区春旱总频次各年代际变化中,大旱、重旱上升趋势明显,从20世纪70年代以来,春旱发生频次由8.1%上升到12.5%,重旱发生频次由3.6%上升到4.8%。周期变化中,辽西北春旱存在10 a左右的主周期。空间上,辽西北地区春旱具有明显的区域性,由南向北递增,春季各等级干旱高发区主要集中于朝阳市各县。 相似文献
12.
《The Australian geographer》1995,26(1):71-86
The upper Nepean River has been progressively regulated for water supply to Sydney and Wollongong since 1886 by the Upper Nepean Water Supply Scheme which consists of four large dams, two small dams and two diversion weirs. Secular rainfall changes produced periods of high rainfall and large floods (flood‐dominated regimes) between 1857 and 1900 and 1947 and the present, and an intervening period (1901–46) of low rainfall and small floods (drought‐dominated regime). Upstream impoundment and flow regulation significantly reduced flood magnitudes for most return periods during both types of flood regimes. The probability distribution of mean daily flows was also changed significantly by flow regulation such that during the drought‐dominated regime, the high and low frequency flows were reduced substantially but the moderate frequency flows were increased due to dam releases; the change from a regulated drought‐dominated regime to a regulated flood‐ dominated regime resulted in a substantial increase in discharge for most durations; and increased water diversions to Wollongong during the current flood‐dominated regime produced a marked downward shift in the whole flow duration curve. Nepean Dam reduced downstream suspended sediment yields by two orders of magnitude because it traps in excess of 99 per cent of the inflowing suspended sediment load. Streamflow releases are urgently required from the two diversion weirs to improve downstream water quality and to ensure the viability of the resident ‘potentially threatened’ eastern Macquarie perch (Macquaria nov. sp.). 相似文献
13.
Kenneth C. Dagel 《The Professional geographer》1997,49(2):192-202
Drought exacts a heavy toll of agricultural productivity, yet it has been largely defined as a one–dimensional natural hazard. This paper explores an understanding and defining of drought based on the perception of ranchers in the marginal physical enviornment of western South Dakota. Analysis of interview data reveals at least four separate dimensions of drought: (1) when a percentage of normal rainfall is recieved, (2) when ranch operation is affected, (3) when a definite amount of rainfall is recieved, and (4) the timeliness of rainfall. The incorporation of perception–based data with site–specific drought severity indices, such as the Palmer Index, can provide a more complete characterization of a hazard affecting the productivity and sustainability of semiarid enviornments worldwide. 相似文献
14.
为了研究在自然状态下植物群落的自然稀疏密度、水分营养面积和耗水量等水分平衡特性,选择民勤荒漠几种典型植物群落,运用连续4 a的样方观测资料,分析了天然沙蒿、天然麻黄和人工梭梭林群落在自然降水条件下植物群落的自然稀疏密度、水分营养面积和耗水量等水分平衡特性。结果表明:天然沙蒿、天然麻黄和人工梭梭林群落在当地的自然稀疏密度相对稳定。群落中成年梭梭林的年耗水量与他人在同一地区用蒸渗仪且地下水位控制在1.4 m时测定的3 a幼苗的耗水量相当,梭梭密度较他人用降水量和蒸腾量、蒸发量推算的密度偏小。实验条件下单株植物的耗水量并不等于群落中个体的平均耗水量,在自然状态下研究得到的单株耗水量较在实验条件的下结论更为真实。植物蒸腾耗水量方面研究的真正有意义的是其在接近凋萎时的蒸腾耗水量,而不是特定供水条件下的几个特定值。 相似文献
15.
《The Professional geographer》2013,65(2):192-202
Drought exacts a heavy toll of agricultural productivity, yet it has been largely defined as a one–dimensional natural hazard. This paper explores an understanding and defining of drought based on the perception of ranchers in the marginal physical enviornment of western South Dakota. Analysis of interview data reveals at least four separate dimensions of drought: (1) when a percentage of normal rainfall is recieved, (2) when ranch operation is affected, (3) when a definite amount of rainfall is recieved, and (4) the timeliness of rainfall. The incorporation of perception–based data with site–specific drought severity indices, such as the Palmer Index, can provide a more complete characterization of a hazard affecting the productivity and sustainability of semiarid enviornments worldwide. 相似文献
16.
基于Meta-Gaussian模型的中国农业干旱预测研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
在全球气候变化背景下,干旱愈加频发,有效且可靠的农业干旱预测对于保障粮食安全和水资源安全具有重要意义。以标准化降水指数（SPI）和联合标准化土壤湿度指数（JSSI）分别表征气象干旱和农业干旱,以前期的气象干旱和农业干旱指数作为预测因子,在1~3个月预见期下基于Meta-Gaussian（MG）模型对中国1961—2015年6—8月的农业干旱进行预测,并采用Brier Skill Score（BSS）和纳什效率系数（NSE）评价MG模型的预测性能。结果表明：① 将1个月、3个月、6个月、9个月和12个月时间尺度的标准化土壤湿度指数（SSI）结合起来得到的JSSI能够对中国农业干旱的综合状况进行客观评价。② 以中国2010年和2014年遭受严重的干旱事件为例,预见期为1~3个月时,除新疆南部、青海西部以及内蒙古西部等沙漠地区外,MG模型对6—8月农业干旱预测结果的分布范围与实际干旱的分布区域较吻合,预见期越短,吻合越好。③ 预见期为1个月时,6—8月BSS ≥ 0.5的面积比例分别为0.714、0.642和0.640,NSE ≥ 0.5的面积比例分别为0.903、0.829和0.837,表明MG模型能够对中国大部分区域的农业干旱作出可靠的预测。本文结果可为中国农业干旱的监测、预警及干旱决策提供科学指导。 相似文献
17.
利用东北地区207个国家基本气象站1961—2014年气象数据,计算改进后的综合气象干旱指数（MCI）、相对湿润度指数（MI）、标准化降水指数（SPI）以及标准化权重降水指数（SPIW）这4种常见的干旱指数,对比分析其在该区域的适用性,结果表明：在东北地区,4种气象干旱指数判断历年干旱持续天数及干旱过程强度的演变趋势基本一致;在干旱影响范围方面,SPI和SPIW指数对较长时间的干旱过程判别效果不佳,MCI指数能够较好的反应各时间尺度干旱过程的影响范围。在空间分布方面,SPI和SPIW指数无明显经向分布特征,MCI和MI指数的空间分布特征基本一致,呈现经向分布特征,干旱过程强度及干旱过程持续天数自西向东递减。从不同时间尺度的干旱影响范围、干旱累计强度和干旱持续天数的空间分布以及指数计算方法角度考虑,MCI指数较为接近实际灾情。 相似文献
18.
本文以季风环流的季节变化及地形两大因子对台湾降水的影响进行了研究分析，结果显示：东北季风和地形共同影响，造成冬半年台湾东北部多雨和西南部干旱；夏半年由于受西南季风的影响，出现了岛西部降水略多于岛东部的现象，且由于西南季风的影响，缓解了西南部干旱．台湾地形对降水的影响居全国之冠，海拔高度每上升100m，年降水量递增值都大于100mm，海拔500mm左右的低层递增率更是高达266．5mm／100m． 相似文献
19.
Peter Kimosop 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2019,40(2):239-256
The Kerio Valley basin in Kenya has undergone several periods of drought, yet drought patterns in the region are not well understood due to limited climatic data. Drought events in the region have resulted in crop failure and livestock deaths, exacerbating food shortages. In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), a multi‐scalar drought index was used to examine the onset, duration, severity, intensity, and frequency of agricultural and hydrological drought in the region. The gridded 0.5° × 0.5° climatic datasets from Climatic Research Unit for the period 1960?2016 was used for analysis. Temporal evolutions of SPEI at 6‐ and 12‐month lags were subsequently used to evaluate agricultural and hydrological drought, respectively. Additionally, the Mann‐Kendall trend test was used to test for trends in the time series. Results from the analysis show that: 1) droughts are becoming more frequent in the region, 2) drought intensities in the arid and semi‐arid lands have weakened, 3) regions west of the Kerio River have recently recorded a wetting trend, and 4) the southern and central regions of the basin are drought‐prone. Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of drought in the basin can assist in drought preparation and mitigation planning. 相似文献
20.
选择4种遥感干旱监测模型,与土壤相对湿度（RSM）和自校准帕默尔干旱指数（sc-PDSI）进行相关性分析,并探讨了研究区生长季干旱的时空变化特征。结果表明：作物缺水指数（CWSI）和植被供水指数（VSWI）更适合监测华北地区的土壤水分,在草原区和农区CWSI干旱监测较好,在森林区和荒漠区VSWI干旱监测效果较好;研究区干旱化趋势有所减缓,且2007—2011年为干旱到湿润的转折区间;干旱空间分布呈北部大于南部、西部大于东部的变化趋势,阿拉善高原的干旱最严重,而大兴安岭山脉基本无干旱发生;干旱整体上向好的趋势发展,尤其是鄂尔多斯南部、山西省、燕山山脉和华北地区-东北地区交界处的农区,且易旱区重心有向西移动的趋势,该成果可以为区域农业干旱监测提供一定的参考。 相似文献