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目前借助分布广泛的地震监测台网,在震后几分钟内获知地震的位置及震级已不再成为问题。受到经济条件以及地理条件等因素的制约,我国的地震监测台网数量还很少,其分布也不够广泛,尤其是实时数据传输的强震动观测台网的规模与密度还十分有限。因此在一次地震发生后,获得的地震数据记录有限。利用这些有限的记录,提出了几种不同情况下的地震动等值线生成方法,通过统计分析、插值等数学方法快速确定地震发生后该地区范围内地震动影响范围及其衰减规律,即确定地震后现场的加速度分布区域,其结果将对地震应急反应具有重要的指导意义。 相似文献
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前震研究进展综述 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
简要介绍了当前国内外前震研究领域的一些进展。对比了不同前震定义条件下前震序列的共性特征,对几种主要的前震机理及主要的前震识别方法进行了简要综述,对其特点及存在的问题进行了评述和讨论。前震指主震之前在主震断层面上、紧邻主震破裂起始点发生的小地震。主震发生之前的一系列前震活动构成前震序列。在不同的前震定义条件下,具有“直接前震”的震例比例从10%至40%不等。理论上前震可用级联应力触发或预滑动模型进行解释。前震空间上主要集中分布在距离主震10~75km范围内,但其时间分布形式非常复杂,大多发生在主震前1~2天,部分前震序列的地震活动率显示明显的加速特征,但许多前震序列单独来看却往往显示主-余型序列的衰减特征。序列地震震源机制一致、序列b值偏低是前震序列最突出的特征。前震的发生与主震破裂形式和构造环境似有一定关系,在有限的前震震例中,逆冲型主震似乎具有相对更多的前震。部分震例的研究结果显示,随主震的临近,前震震源深度有逐渐下迁的特点。到目前为止,震前很难判定一次地震或一个地震序列是否前震或前震序列,所使用的前震识别主要有基于统计类比的方法、基于震源机制一致及衍生的相关方法以及基于对地震成核过程精细检测的方法。从现有不多的震例研究结果来看,尽管地震时空丛集和震源机制高度一致是前震序列的最显著特征,但却不是判定前震序列的充分条件。由于成核的破裂扩展速度和滑动位移有随时间较快增大的趋势,因而基于对地震成核过程精细检测的方法有望在前震识别中发挥更为重要的作用,但需更多震例进行验证。 相似文献
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液化实时监测作为减轻地震灾害的新手段,其核心技术是建立依据强震记录识别场地液化的方法,但目前所提出的方法十分有限,可靠性也缺少实际地震检验.2011年新西兰地震中液化及其震害现象显著,为检验现有液化识别方法提供了条件.目前已有并可供程使用的四种液化识别方法为:Miyajima法、Suzuki法、KY法(Kostadin... 相似文献
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Y. Y. Kagan 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1999,155(2-4):233-258
—Our purpose is to analyze the causes of recent failures in earthquake forecasting, as well as the difficulties in earthquake investigation. We then propose that more rigorous methods are necessary in earthquake seismology research. First, we discuss the failures of direct earthquake forecasts and the poor quantitative predictive power of theoretical and computer simulation methods in explaining earthquakes. These failures are due to the immense complexity of earthquake rupture phenomena and lack of rigor in the empirical analysis of seismicity. Given such conditions, neither "holistic," interdisciplinary analysis of geophysical data nor greater reliance on the currently available results of earthquake physics is likely to work without revising scientific methodology. We need to develop more rigorous procedures for testing proposed patterns of earthquake occurrence and comparing them to predictions of theoretical and computer modeling. These procedures should use methods designed in physics and other sciences to formulate hypotheses and carry out objective validation. Since earth sciences study a unique object, new methods should be designed to obtain reliable and reproducible results. It is likely that the application of sophisticated statistical methods will be needed. 相似文献
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借助问卷调查的方法,对北京市民众的地震灾害认知水平进行了初步调查分析。结果表明,目前北京民众对于地震灾害知识的掌握水平非常有限,部分民众辨识地震谣言的能力不足; 在防震减灾技能方面,民众的掌握程度相对较好,基本上都能够正确认识和掌握紧急避震的注意事项及震后的救人技巧等; 北京民众整体的防震减灾意识较强,都希望多了解掌握一些防震减灾知识和技能,且绝大部分民众都能认识到邻里、社区或单位的自救互救在应急救灾方面的重要性。北京民众对地震灾害知识的认知水平具有群体差异性,男性整体认知水平要稍好于女性; 受教育程度、年龄均对民众的认知水平有着显著的正影响。除继续加强传统传媒渠道对防震减灾知识和技能的宣传外,加强学校正规教育中的灾害教育渗透和通过互联网及手机等现代通信方式进行宣传教育也应得到进一步的重视。 相似文献
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Innovative substructuring technique for hybrid simulation of multistory buildings through collapse 
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下载免费PDF全文 Hybrid simulation combines numerical and experimental methods for cost‐effective, large‐scale testing of structures under simulated dynamic earthquake loads. Particularly for experimental seismic collapse simulation of structures, hybrid testing can be an attractive alternative to earthquake simulators due to the limited capacity of most facilities and the difficulties and risks associated with a collapsing structure on a shaking table. The benefits of hybrid simulation through collapse can be further enhanced through accurate and practical substructuring techniques that do not require testing the entire structure. An innovative substructuring technique for hybrid simulation of structures subjected to large deformations is proposed to simplify the boundary conditions by overlapping the domains between the numerical and experimental subassemblies. The advantages of this substructuring technique are the following: it requires only critical components of the structure to be tested experimentally; it reduces the number of actuators at the interface of the experimental subassemblies; and it can be implemented using typically available equipment in laboratories. Compared with previous overlapping methods that have been applied in hybrid simulation, this approach requires additional sensing in the hybrid simulation feedback loop to obtain internal member forces, but provides significantly better accuracy in the highly nonlinear range. The proposed substructuring technique is verified numerically and validated experimentally, using the response of a four‐story moment‐resisting frame that was previously tested to collapse on an earthquake simulator. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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基于三维GIS技术的地震灾情场景模拟系统 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
设计并实现了基于三维GIS技术的地震灾情场景模拟系统。根据现场救援工作的特点和需求,对基于基础地理信息数据的自动三维建模方法和场景生成技术进行了研究,建立了基于地震动影响场和结构易损性的地震灾情场景模型;基于ArcGISEngine开发组件,实现了灾前、灾后场景的自动生成和直观显示,实现了整体破坏情况分析、重点搜索区域判定、关键目标震害与属性查询等灾情分析和辅助决策功能。该系统以震区基础地理信息数据和地震基本参数作为数据源,可以在获得地震基本参数之后快速地估计和分析震区建筑结构的破坏及其空间分布情况,预判重点搜索救援区域,为应急指挥决策和救援行动提供有效的支持,适合在现场救援工作中实际应用。 相似文献
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本文以5·12汶川地震后绵竹市某砖混结构住宅为典型调查研究对象,介绍了震后多层砌体结构房屋的常见震害现象和一般震害规律,结合有关规范分析了一般受损建筑不同的抗震鉴定方法和手段,对比分析了各种抗震加固措施的加固效果与适用条件,较为全面地总结了一般多层砌体结构从震害调查到鉴定加固的方法和程序,为灾后砌体结构的抗震加固设计提... 相似文献
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基于震例和决策模型的救灾事项时序研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
地震应急成败的关键在于能否在有限时间的约束条件下,制定出科学合理的决策,并付诸及时有效的实施,政府可以根据地震灾情的特点合理安排救灾,最大程度减少人员伤亡和经济损失。本文就不同区域紧急救助阶段的地震救灾事项的时序性做了简浅的研究,在大量地震震例和应急预案研究的基础上,总结震后政府应做必要的救灾的措施,根据影响地震应急的不同因素在不同条件下的权重,对救灾事项进行重要性、时序性排列,建立应急事项决策模型。 相似文献
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Thedevelopmentandthevariationoftheearthquakeprocessisaverycomplicatedoneandaffectedandlimitedbymanyfactors.Thekeyoftheaccuratepredictionistosetupadynamiccomprehensivepredictionmodelbasedonthecomprehensionoftheprecursorcharacteristicandtheattentionofthevariationwithtimeofthesefactors.Inthispaper,wetrytoapplythefaultdiagnosistectonictoeanhquakeprediction.Thefaultdiagnosistectonicisanapplicableboundaryscience.Thebasicideaistojudgeifthefaultoccurinthesystemandtodeterminewhereandwhenthefaultoccuran… 相似文献
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分别用经验格林函数方法和随机方法对卢龙ML5.7地震的地震动进行模拟对比研究,结果显示:用经验格林函数方法模拟得到的波形和反应谱都与原始记录接近,用该方法模拟的地震动,无需掌握场地的具体情况;对于无小震记录的地区,如果知道了其场地情况与附近有小震记录地区相似,可以用该小震记录作为经验格林函数模拟地震动。对于不能用经验格林函数方法模拟地震动的地区,可以用随机方法模拟地震动。用随机方法模拟地震动具有简单、方便、无需小震记录的优点。根据卢龙场地具体条件,尝试用两种方法结合预测了卢龙地震加速度场,结果比较好地反映了断层周围加速度的峰值分布规律。 相似文献
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震级上限是指一个地区可能发生地震的最大震级,其概率意义为发生超过该震级地震的概率几乎为0.在有些地区,由于对其内部的地震构造研究和认识存有局限性,很难根据构造或者地质学的原则来确定震级上限.因此,根据数学模型,采用统计手段,使用地震活动性资料来计算震级上限的估计值是一种可行的方法.本文根据截断的G-R关系模型,采用最大似然计算方法,使用东北地震区的地震目录,计算了东北地震区震级上限,结果表明东北地震区的震级上限应为Mu=7.5左右.计算中我们考虑了不同震级的转换、震级误差的修正以及计算方法的影响.最终结果表明,不论采用何种方案进行计算,东北地震区的震级上限值均始终保持在7.5左右,这说明我们采用本文中方法计算得到的东北地震区的震级上限值是合理可信的,同时也说明在以往的研究中对东北地震区震级上限的估计大都是偏小的. 相似文献
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基于主震和余震属于同一发震构造形成的震源区之原则,提出了历史地震余震参数的复核方法:首先在核实资料的基础上,判断是否属于余震;考虑主震震源区范围,综合确定余震震中位置,当资料不够充分时,也可直接以主震震中代替;按有感半径和区域烈度衰减关系来估算震级值.进而运用以上方法以1604年福建泉州海外7(1/2)级地震、1605年海南琼山7(1/2)级地震和1668年山东郯城-莒县8(1/2)级地震的13次余震为例,探讨了此方法的普适性.结果表明13次余震中有12次地震震中位置和6次地震的震级值发生了变化,使得原有余震参数的不确定性得到了明显改变,判定了主震和余震是属于同一发震构造.这些结果为在相关地区合理识别发震构造创造了条件,也可为今后修编历史地震目录提供参考. 相似文献
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We demonstrate that GA-MHYPO determines accurate hypocentral parameters for local earthquakes under ill conditions, such as limited number of stations (phase data), large azimuthal gap, and noisy data. The genetic algorithm (GA) in GA-MHYPO searches for the optimal 1-D velocity structure which provides the minimum traveltime differences between observed (true) and calculated P and S arrivals within prescribed ranges. GA-MHYPO is able to determine hypocentral parameters more accurately in many circumstances than conventional methods which rely on an a priori (and possibly incorrect) 1-D velocity model. In our synthetic tests, the accuracy of hypocentral parameters obtained by GA-MHYPO given ill conditions is improved by more than a factor of 20 for error-free data, and by a factor of five for data with errors, compared to that obtained by conventional methods such as HYPOINVERSE. In the case of error-free data, GA-MHYPO yields less than 0.1 km errors in focal depths and hypocenters without strong dependence on azimuthal coverage up to 45°. Errors are less than 1 km for data with errors of a 0.1-s standard deviation. To test the performance using real data, a well-recorded earthquake in the New Madrid seismic zone and earthquakes recorded under ill conditions in the High Himalaya are relocated by GA-MHYPO. The hypocentral parameters determined by GA-MHYPO under both good and ill conditions show similar computational results, which suggest that GA-MHYPO is robust and yields more reliable hypocentral parameters than standard methods under ill conditions for natural earthquakes. 相似文献
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The Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System (GEVES): an approach for earthquake risk assessment for insurance applications 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Robin Spence Emily So Sarah Jenny Hervé Castella Michael Ewald Edmund Booth 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2008,6(3):463-483
For the insurance and reinsurance industries, earthquake loss estimation is crucial not only to adequately price its product
but also to manage the accumulation risk in the face of the ever-increasing exposure in highly seismic regions. Changes in
the built environment and a continuously evolving earthquake science make it a necessity for the industry to constantly refine
earthquake loss estimation models. In particular, it has been recognized for a long time that the vulnerability of buildings
to ground shaking is a key parameter in any earthquake risk model. Current methods tend either to rely on the limited historical
damage and loss data or on the numerical simulation of the response of individual buildings to the ground-shaking produced
by earthquakes. Although both methods have their advantages and pitfalls, we are proposing here a simple solution, using transparent
input data, that can be realistically used for the needs of the insurance and reinsurance industry, whether detailed information
about the insured structures is available or not. The resulting product is known as GEVES (Global Earthquake Vulnerability
Estimation System). It is primarily intended for evaluating the mean damage ratio (MDR) suffered by a portfolio of buildings
classified by use, under the action of a given earthquake scenario (i.e. an earthquake of given size at a given distance from
the portfolio of buildings). A key assumption was that macroseismic intensity rather than spectral displacement would be the
basis of loss estimation. The paper describes the model with emphasis on its structure and the justification for the assumptions
made. In addition to a new set of earthquake vulnerability functions, the paper also provides recommendations on some aspects
of the earthquake hazard, in particular about how to define macroseismic intensity at the site of interest, for a given earthquake
scenario. This paper also discusses validation of the GEVES model against calculated vulnerability approaches, and the treatment
of uncertainty within the model. 相似文献
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2010年4月14日青海玉树7.1级地震序列中小地震辐射能量的估计 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文利用震后架设的4个流动台站和震源区周围3个固定台站记录到的青海玉树7.1级地震序列波形资料,资料时间截止到2010年5月19日.经过传播路径效应和场地响应校正后,估算了玉树地震序列中80个中小地震的辐射能量.比较了辐射能量估计中不同方法之间结果存在的差异性,首次考虑了由于仪器频带宽度的限制而造成的中小地震辐射能量的低估与补偿问题,得到以下主要结论:(1)分别采用Andrews方法、震源实际谱方法(区分能量补偿前和后二种情况)和根据理论模型并将积分上限外推到所计算地震拐角频率的10倍的方法(理论谱方法)计算出的中小地震辐射能量4种结果基本上位于同一个量级水平之上,表明结果具有一定的可靠性和稳定性.这其中,Andrews方法得到的辐射能量最低,理论谱方法得到的结果最高,而由实际谱方法得到的地震辐射能量介于两者之间.(2)由古登堡经验公式得到的地震辐射能量远高于上述4种方法计算出的结果,能够达到理论谱方法结果的4倍,而且随震级的增大,由它带来的辐射能量的高估趋势更加明显.(3)由于没有考虑地震能量的补偿,Andrews方法得到的地震辐射量明显偏低.用两种不同方法进行地震辐射能量补偿后得到的结果比较接近,但考虑到仪器频带上限值设定的复杂性,认为由理论谱方法计算中小地震的辐射能量更加合适.(4)经过能量补偿后地震辐射能量要高于未作能量补偿的结果,能量补偿带来的辐射能量增加的作用对于小地震更加明显.在本文研究范围之内,不同方法得到的折合能量均明显存在随地震矩的增大而增大的现象,反映出玉树余震序列中大震地震辐射效率高于小震. 相似文献