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1.
Abstract The Kyoto Protocol has an ambitious reporting and review system to assess Parties' compliance with their emission commitments. It is based on a ‘bottom-up’ approach; that is, each Party is required to submit detailed inventories of emissions and removals. This requires considerable resources and may still not detect all important cases of non-compliance. We consider the case for introducing ‘top-down’ methods; that is, independent inverse modelling methods that calculate probable emissions using measured concentrations of gases in the atmosphere and meteorological models. We argue that the top-down methods are at present too inaccurate, too cumbersome, and politically too problematic to serve as independent alternatives to the reported emission inventories for assessing compliance, although they could be useful in monitoring the global success of the protocol. We conclude that these top-down approaches may supplement the traditional emission inventories, in particular those dealing with fluorinated gases, thereby providing input for improving the emission inventory methods. 相似文献
2.
Previous research has identified the importance of the role of land cover in the global carbon cycle. In particular, forests have been identified as a significant carbon sink that can mitigate the rate of global climate change. Policy makers are faced with complex and difficult challenges in getting timely and useful information in monitoring global forest resources. Recent advances in the tools and methods of forest carbon accounting have produced new, innovative approaches to forest-based carbon inventories. But it is important as new tools are developed that scientists understand the needs of policy makers and that policy makers understand the capabilities and limitations of forest inventory methods. This paper explores four different policy applications that rely, or could benefit from, national carbon inventories. The goal is to help build a bridge between the communities of climate policy makers and scientists specialized in forest carbon inventories. To this end, we pursue three specific objectives: First we provide an overview for policy makers about approaches to forest carbon inventories, paying particular attention to the contributions of remote sensing technologies. Second, we outline the issues particularly relevant to forest inventory scientists who are interested in responding to public policy needs. We then discuss the tradeoffs between information cost, accuracy, precision, transparency and timeliness that need to be balanced in long-term monitoring of forest carbon. Finally, the article concludes with a series of observations and recommendations for the implementation of forest carbon inventories as increasingly central components of global climate change policy. 相似文献
3.
Greenhouse gases emission inventories are computed with rather low precision. Moreover, their uncertainty distributions may be asymmetric. This should be accounted for in the compliance and trading rules. In this paper we model the uncertainty of inventories as intervals or using fuzzy numbers. The latter allows us to better shape the uncertainty distributions. The compliance and emission trading rules obtained generalize the results for the symmetric uncertainty distributions that were considered in the earlier papers by the present authors (Nahorski et al., Water Air & Soil Pollution. Focus 7(4–5):539–558, 2007; Nahorski and Horabik, 2007, J Energy Eng 134(2):47–52, 2008). However, unlike in the symmetric distribution, in the asymmetric fuzzy case it is necessary to apply approximations because of nonlinearities in the formulas. The final conclusion is that the interval uncertainty rules can be applied, but with a much higher substitutional noncompliance risk, which is a parameter of the rules. 相似文献
4.
Comparison of preparatory signal analysis techniques for consideration in the (post-)Kyoto policy process 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Our study is a preparatory exercise. We focus on the analysis of uncertainty in greenhouse gas emission inventories. Inventory uncertainty is monitored, but not regulated, under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Under the Convention, countries publish annual or periodic national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. Policymakers use these inventories to develop strategies and policies for emission reductions and to track the progress of these policies. However, greenhouse gas inventories contain uncertainty for a variety of reasons, and these uncertainties have important scientific and policy implications. For most countries, the emission changes agreed under the Protocol are of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainty that underlies their combined (carbon dioxide equivalent) emissions estimates. Here we apply and compare six available techniques to analyze the uncertainty in the emission changes that countries agreed to realize by the end of the Protocol’s first commitment period 2008–2012. Any such technique, if implemented, could “make or break” claims of compliance, especially in cases where countries claim fulfillment of their commitments to reduce or limit emissions. The techniques all perform differently and can thus have a different impact on the design and execution of emission control policies. A thorough comparison of the techniques has not yet been made but is needed when expanding the discussion on how to go about dealing with uncertainty under the Kyoto Protocol and its successor. 相似文献
5.
调研了主要发达国家的温室气体清单编制方法和国内相关经验,结合我国电力行业特点和温室气体清单编制目标、尺度、方法等,提出以IPCC推荐的详细技术为基础的第二类(T2)方法为主,更精确的第三类(T3)方法为辅的我国电力行业温室气体清单编制方法的基本原则;借鉴国外温室气体排放核算的优良做法,结合我国电力行业实际情况,对我国电力行业温室气体清单编制进行实体分类和分析,根据清单编制的范围、定义和数据可得性等建立符合我国国情的电力行业温室气体清单编制方法体系框架。 相似文献
6.
城市的低碳发展对于应对气候变化及实现我国“碳达峰、碳中和”目标起着至关重要的作用。在新的国土空间规划体系下,国土空间总体规划对城市的低碳发展影响重大。为解决现有的城市温室气体核算中存在的问题,使总体规划促进城市低碳发展,构建了国土空间总体规划温室气体核算模型。该模型基于“空间布局—用地类型—部门划分—模型方法”的框架,采用自上而下与自下而上相结合的方法,与国土空间规划要素紧密结合;建立了市域和中心城区两个层次的碳排放核算方法,并解决了中心城区的碳排放核算问题,可进行国际间比较;解决了总体规划能源预测不完善的问题,提出了不同的核算方法供灵活选择,与完全基于用地类型的方法相比,降低了不确定性。最后基于模型提出了评估总体规划低碳发展水平的核心指标与参考指标。 相似文献
7.
国家温室气体清单时间序列一致性和2005年清单重算研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《巴黎协定》透明度后续实施细则对发展中国家温室气体清单时间序列一致性方面的要求显著增强。文中基于IPCC清单指南中对温室气体清单重算的要求,对作为我国国家自主贡献基年的2005年温室气体清单进行重算。由于增加了新的排放源或吸收汇、更新部分活动水平或排放因子数据以及采用了更新的方法学,重算后的2005年国家温室气体清单排放量（以CO2当量计,下同）为80.15亿t（不包括土地利用、土地利用变化和林业,即LULUCF),相比重算前增加了6.6%。能源领域对重算后总排放量上升影响最大,增加了4.26亿t,其中CO2增长主要来自第三次全国经济普查（三经普）对2005年化石燃料消费量的修订,甲烷（CH4）和氧化亚氮（N2O）排放上升主要原因是新增加了排放源。未来我国将更频繁地对以往清单年份开展重算,建议结合《巴黎协定》实施细则要求加强对我国温室气体清单时间序列一致性问题的研究,以更好地支撑国内应对气候变化决策分析,以及满足未来《巴黎协定》下的履约要求。 相似文献
8.
Matthias Jonas Gregg Marland Wilfried Winiwarter Thomas White Zbigniew Nahorski Rostyslav Bun Sten Nilsson 《Climatic change》2010,103(1-2):3-18
The assessment of greenhouse gases emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on the international political and scientific agendas. Growing international concern and cooperation regarding the climate change problem have increased the need for policy-oriented solutions to the issue of uncertainty in, and related to, inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The approaches to addressing uncertainty discussed in this Special Issue reflect attempts to improve national inventories, not only for their own sake but also from a wider, systems analytical perspective—a perspective that seeks to strengthen the usefulness of national inventories under a compliance and/or global monitoring and reporting framework. These approaches demonstrate the benefits of including inventory uncertainty in policy analyses. The authors of the contributed papers show that considering uncertainty helps avoid situations that can, for example, create a false sense of certainty or lead to invalid views of subsystems. This may eventually prevent related errors from showing up in analyses. However, considering uncertainty does not come for free. Proper treatment of uncertainty is costly and demanding because it forces us to make the step from “simple to complex” and only then to discuss potential simplifications. Finally, comprehensive treatment of uncertainty does not offer policymakers quick and easy solutions. The authors of the papers in this Special Issue do, however, agree that uncertainty analysis must be a key component of national GHG inventory analysis. Uncertainty analysis helps to provide a greater understanding and better science helps us to reduce and deal with uncertainty. By recognizing the importance of identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in ongoing discussions regarding GHG inventories and accounting for climate change. The 17 papers in this Special Issue deal with many aspects of analyzing and dealing with uncertainty in emissions estimates. 相似文献
9.
Another Simple Method of Spectral Correction to Obtain Robust Eddy-Covariance Results 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The eddy-covariance method is the state-of-the-art tool to measure mass and energy fluxes, though many measuring systems (particularly
closed-path systems) show strong spectral attenuation that causes significant underestimates of actual mass fluxes. The standard
way to correct these underestimates is to use theoretically derived transfer functions. Practical implementation has shown
that the attenuation, especially of closed-path systems, is underestimated by this method, even when the additional tube damping
is considered. This paper introduces and tests three alternative site-specific and hardware specific correction methods based
on spectral analysis, which typically enhance—additionally to the classical correction—the calculated mass fluxes based on
closed-path analysers, as their inevitable tubing and the filters used cause additional flow attenuation. Two of the three
methods are based on a site-specific and hardware specific transfer functions, the third uses direct comparison of cospectra.
Primarily the methods based on transfer functions proved to be easy-to-handle once established for the specific set-up and
measurement site. They represent practical and robust methods to correct for spectral attenuation. 相似文献
10.
徐炳吉 《南京气象学院学报》2017,9(4):395-399
分别针对具有结构参数和范数有界参数的滞后型Lurie控制系统的鲁棒绝对稳定性问题,利用Lyapunov方法给出了系统鲁棒绝对稳定的时滞无关条件及时滞相关条件.得到的结果用线性矩阵不等式（LMI）表示,易于利用MATLAB工具箱求得保守性较低的条件. 相似文献
11.
Despite the growing concern about actual on-going climate change, there is little consensus on the scale and timing of actions needed to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Many countries are unwilling to implement mitigation strategies, at least in the short term, and no agreement on an ambitious global stabilisation target has yet been reached. It is thus likely that international climate policies will be characterized by a high degree of uncertainty over the stringency of the climate objective, and that some countries might delay their participation to global action. What additional economic costs will this delay in the adoption of mitigation measures imply? What would the optimal short-term strategy be given the uncertainty surrounding the climate policy to come? Is there a hedging strategy that decision makers can adopt to cope with delayed action and uncertain targets? This paper addresses these questions by quantifying the economic implications of delaying mitigation action, and by computing the optimal abatement strategy in the presence of uncertainty about a global stabilisation target (which will be agreed upon in future climate negotiations). Results point to short-term inaction as the key determinant for the economic costs of ambitious climate policies. They also indicate that there is an effective hedging strategy that could minimise the cost of climate policy uncertainty over the global stabilisation target: a short-term moderate climate policy would be a good strategy to reduce the costs of delayed action and to cope with uncertainty about the outcome of future climate negotiations. By contrast, failing to curb emissions in the short term imposes rapidly increasing additional costs of compliance. 相似文献
12.
彭伟 《南京气象学院学报》2012,4(3):258-265
介绍了CRC循环冗余校验基本原理及生成多项式表示,分别研究了嵌入式系统CRC-8-Dallas/Maxim与CRC-16-IBM生成多项式及其硬件描述.以DS18B20器件的ROMID/Scratchpad数据校验及Modbus总线网络数据帧校验为例,通过对生成多项式及硬件描述的分析研究得出了基本比特型校验算法设计,在数学推导的基础上得出了其改进的比特型校验算法及单字节、半字节查表校验算法.为获得更高的校验速度,提出了一种基于块及多表的校验算法,比较了几种校验算法的ROM空间占用与校验处理速度.所设计的CRC校验程序为嵌入式系统数据的可靠传输提供了重要保证. 相似文献
13.
Wolfram Joerss 《Climatic change》2014,124(3):605-616
This paper presents the application of a Monte-Carlo simulation for assessing the uncertainties of German 2005 emissions of particulate matter (PM10 & PM2.5) and aerosol precursors (SO2, NOx, NH3 and NMVOC) carried out in the PAREST (PArticle REduction STrategies) research project. For the uncertainty analysis the German Federal Environment Agency’s emission inventory was amended and integrated with a model on the disaggregation of energy balance data. A series of algorithms was developed in order to make efficient and pragmatic use of available literature and expert judgement data for uncertainties of emission model input data. The inventories for PM10 (95 %-confidence interval: ?16 %/+23 %), PM2.5 (?15 %/+19 %) and NOx (?10 %/+23 %) appear most uncertain, while the inventories for SO2 (?9 %/+9 %), NMVOC (?10 %/+12 %) and NH3 (?13 %/+13 %) show a higher accuracy. The source categories adding the most relevant contributions to overall uncertainty vary across the pollutants and comprise agriculture, mobile machinery in agriculture and forestry, construction sites, small businesses/carpentries, cigarette smoke and fireworks, road traffic, solvent use and stationary combustion. The PAREST results on relative uncertainties have been quoted in the German Informative Inventory Reports since 2012. A comparison shows that the PAREST results for Germany are within the range of (for NH3: close below) other European countries’ results on air pollutant inventory uncertainties as reported in the 2013 Informative Inventory Reports. 相似文献
14.
研究了一类不确定时滞非线性系统的鲁棒镇定问题.不确定参数是时变未知有界的,但不一定满足所谓的匹配条件.利用线性矩阵不等式,一些充分条件被获得,保证了相应闭环系统的鲁棒稳定性,并在此基础上得出了相应的状态反馈控制器.最后,通过一个数值例子说明了该方法的有效性. 相似文献
15.
Groundwater depletion is arguably one of humanity's greatest sustainability challenges of the 21st century. With Sustainable Development Goals only a decade away, water authorities around the world are in the urgent need for concrete and targeted measures to ensure that communities adhere to groundwater management policies as rapidly and as effectively as possible. In this paper, we combine computational social science, groundwater modelling and empirical data from the World Values Survey to generate future ensembles of hydro-social trajectories under alternative courses of management and social action or inaction. Our simulations shed new light on the role that cultural values can play in shaping the societal trajectories and norms that emerge when resources are either allocated or not sufficiently allocated to monitor compliance, issue fines, engage community leaders, and deter rule-breakers. This study presents a new approach to explore and evaluate the capacity of existing and future management actions to steer groundwater systems towards sustainable trajectories, to forecast the celerity and timing of social transformations at the inter-decadal scale, and to help nations identify the most pertinent management options under institutional, political, social, and/or cultural constraints. The methods presented here are broadly applicable to support strategic decisions that rely on the monitoring, enforcement, and compliance of environmental regulations. 相似文献
16.
气象观测资料的质量对气象及相关领域的研究具有重要影响，如何进行气象观测资料的质量控制，确保资料的代表性和准确性，是气象资料工作者迫切需要解决的科学问题。气象观测资料的质量控制技术和方法各国均不相同，北欧5国的合作研究成果具有先进性和很好的代表性。简要介绍了北欧国家对实时和非实时气象资料进行质量控制的流程，所采用的方法、技术等。北欧气象资料从观测台站到资料中心经历了QC0、QCl、QC2和HQC 4个级别的质量控制流程；质量控制方法可分为单站质量控制和空间质量控制两大类，每类方法又分为不同的检查方案；质量控制标识根据用户对象的不同在北欧各国有不同的方案。 相似文献
17.
This paper presents two new methods for the linear transformation of climate model precipitation data. For verification of the developed methods, daily precipitation sums from the REMO climate model were transformed to observed data from the meteorological stations in the Malse River basin in the Czech Republic. Both methods are based on an analysis of the gamma distribution. The comparison between the observed and transformed data indicates their suitable applicability. The precipitation amounts of transformed data comply with an equivalent probability distribution as the observed data, a distribution of dry days in time drifts towards realistic values. In addition, the efficiency of the formerly published method for nonlinear transformation and newly introduced linear methods is compared. 相似文献
18.
Mangrove conversion and aquaculture development in Vietnam: A remote sensing-based approach for evaluating the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Remote sensing data have been proposed as a potential tool for monitoring environmental treaties. However, to date, satellite images have been used primarily for visualization, but not for systematic monitoring of treaty compliance. In this paper, we present a methodology to operationalize the use of satellite imagery to assess the impact of the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands. The approach uses time series analysis of landscape pattern metrics to assess land cover conditions before and after designation of Ramsar status to monitor compliance with the Convention. We apply the methodology to two case studies in Vietnam and evaluate the success of Ramsar using four metrics: (1) total mangrove extent; (2) mangrove fragmentation; (3) mangrove density; and (4) aquaculture extent. Results indicate that the Ramsar Convention did not slow the development of aquaculture in the region, but total mangrove extent has remained relatively constant, primarily due to replanting efforts. Yet despite these restoration efforts, the mangroves have become fragmented and survival rates for replanting efforts are low. The methodology is cost effective and especially useful to evaluate Ramsar sites that rely mainly on self-reporting methods and where third parties are not actively involved in the monitoring process. Finally, the case study presented in this paper demonstrates that with the appropriate satellite record, in situ measurements and field observations, remote sensing is a promising technology that can help monitor compliance with international environmental agreements. 相似文献
19.
我国极度缺乏结冰气象条件中的云层数据，我国民用航空规章第25部附录C结冰条件只能复制于美国航空规章，对飞行探测得到的结冰云层数据进行附录C符合性分析的方法也少有研究。附录C结冰条件形成于20世纪40年代末，当时的探测手段与如今采用先进探测仪器所获取的数据形式有很大差异，因此首先明确附录C结冰条件参数的具体定义，根据当前探测仪器测量数据的高分辨率特性，对数据处理与分析方法进行研究。最后基于该方法对安庆结冰气象探测数据进行了分析，从分析结果看，该方法能够清晰呈现所探测结冰云层的结冰条件基本特征及其与附录C的符合性程度。 相似文献
20.
This study is a contribution to the ongoing debate about the selection of the approach for carbon accounting in wood products to be used, in the future, in the national greenhouse gas inventories under the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). Two accounting approaches are used in this analysis: the stock-change approach and the atmospheric-flow approach. They are applied to the Portuguese Eucalyptus globulus forest sector. To achieve this objective, the fluxes of wood removed from the forest are tracked through its life cycle, which includes products manufacture (mainly pulp and paper), use and final disposal (landfilling, incineration and composting). This study develops a framework to the estimation of carbon sequestration in the forest of E. globulus, a fast growing species, more specifically, in the calculation of the conversion factors such as bark and foliage percentages and densities, used to convert wood volumes into total biomass. A mass balance approach based on real data from mills is also proposed, in order to assess carbon emissions from wood processing. The results show that E. globulus forest sector was a carbon sink, but the magnitude of the carbon sequestration differs substantially depending on the accounting approach used. The contribution of the forest ecosystem was smaller than the aggregated contribution of wood products in use and in landfills (including industrial waste), which reinforces the role that wood products play in national carbon budgets. 相似文献