Solar interaction regions,geomagnetic indices and the troposphere     

V.P. Bhatnagar  T. Jakobsson  R.L. Rosenberg 《Planetary and Space Science》1982,30(11):1079-1082

Using key dates associated with solar interaction regions (SIR), a superposed epoch analysis is performed on the zonal and meridional kinetic energy density and square of the vorticity (enstrophy) of the main motion at 500 mb height. No relationships are found between SIR and these atmospheric dynamical parameters irrespective of the polarity (North or South) of the enhanced interplanetary magnetic fields (IMF) within the SIR, or with latitude and season. This investigation and other available results suggest that the short term solar variations do not influence large volumes of the troposphere but only localized regions.The average atmospheric kinetic energy density during active solar conditions is higher than during quiet solar condition, with no significant differences in enstrophy. This confirms an earlier result.It is also shown that SIR with enhanced southward directed IMF correspond to higher level of geomagnetic index (A_p > 10, K_p > 3) than randomly selected days.  相似文献   

Solar Rotational Periodicities and the Semiannual Variation in the Solar Wind, Radiation Belt, and Aurora     

Barbara A. Emery  Ian G. Richardson  David S. Evans  Frederick J. Rich  Gordon R. Wilson 《Solar physics》2011,274(1-2):399-425

The behavior of a number of solar wind, radiation belt, auroral and geomagnetic parameters is examined during the recent extended solar minimum and previous solar cycles, covering the period from January 1972 to July 2010. This period includes most of the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24, which was more extended than recent solar minima, with historically low values of most of these parameters in 2009. Solar rotational periodicities from 5 to 27 days were found from daily averages over 81 days for the parameters. There were very strong 9-day periodicities in many variables in 2005?–?2008, triggered by recurring corotating high-speed streams (HSS). All rotational amplitudes were relatively large in the descending and early minimum phases of the solar cycle, when HSS are the predominant solar wind structures. There were minima in the amplitudes of all solar rotational periodicities near the end of each solar minimum, as well as at the start of the reversal of the solar magnetic field polarity at solar maximum (～?1980, ～?1990, and ～?2001) when the occurrence frequency of HSS is relatively low. Semiannual equinoctial periodicities, which were relatively strong in the 1995?–?1997 solar minimum, were found to be primarily the result of the changing amplitudes of the 13.5- and 27-day periodicities, where 13.5-day amplitudes were better correlated with heliospheric daily observations and 27-day amplitudes correlated better with Earth-based daily observations. The equinoctial rotational amplitudes of the Earth-based parameters were probably enhanced by a combination of the Russell-McPherron effect and a reduction in the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling efficiency during solstices. The rotational amplitudes were cross-correlated with each other, where the 27-day amplitudes showed some of the weakest cross-correlations. The rotational amplitudes of the >?2 MeV radiation belt electron number fluxes were progressively weaker from 27- to 5-day periods, showing that processes in the magnetosphere act as a low-pass filter between the solar wind and the radiation belt. The A _p/K _p magnetic currents observed at subauroral latitudes are sensitive to proton auroral precipitation, especially for 9-day and shorter periods, while the A _p/K _p currents are governed by electron auroral precipitation for 13.5- and 27-day periodicities.  相似文献   

Non-radial solar wind flows and IMF B_z during 1973-2003     

Felix B. Pereira  T.E. Girish 《Planetary and Space Science》2009,57(3):344-349

The characteristics of latitudinal angles of solar wind flow (θ_v) observed near earth have been studied during the period 1973-2003. The average magnitude of θ_v shows distinct enhancements during the declining and maximum phases of the sunspot cycles. A close association of B_z component of IMF in the GSE system and the orientation of meridional flows in the solar wind is found which depends on the IMF sector polarity. This effect has been studied in typical geomagnetic storm periods. The occurrence of non-radial flows is also found to exhibit heliolatitudinal dependence during the years 1975 and 1985 as a characteristic feature of non-radial solar wind expansion from polar coronal holes.  相似文献   

Effects of the dayside field-aligned currents in location and structure of polar cusps     

N.A. Tsyganenko  A.V. Usmanov 《Planetary and Space Science》1984,32(1):97-104

We have studied the dayside magnetosphere structure and its K_p, A_E and IMF-dependence using the magnetic data from IMP and HEOS satellites obtained during 1966–1972. An analysis of the field line configurations has been done on the basis of results of a least squares fitting of the model coefficients to the data subsets. The plots of the magnetopause subsolar point distance and of the polar cusp latitude vs K_p and A_E have been obtained. A detailed study of the model field distribution has revealed a substantial difference in the polar cusp field line geometry between the cases of weak and strong geomagnetic activity. We find that this results in a considerable longitudinal extension of the isointensity contours of particle precipitation at ionospheric heights during disturbed periods with K_p ? 3 or A_E ? 300 nT. The same effect has been detected for the data subsets corresponding to the IMF B_z < 0. In contrast, at quiet times the precipitation isolines are much closer to circles. We conclude therefore that the cleft-like structure of polar cusps pertains only to active periods and can be explained by a magnetic effect of enhanced Birkeland currents.  相似文献   

Short-Period Features of the Interplanetary Plasma and Their Evolution     

S.R. Prabhakaran Nayar  V. Sanalkumaran Nair  V.N. Radhika  K. Revathy 《Solar physics》2001,201(2):405-417

The solar wind plasma exhibits many features of the solar surface passed on to the interplanetary medium as temporal variations due to the solar rotation. The yearly average values of solar wind velocity, and geomagnetic index A _p during 1965–1999 were found to exhibit long period evolution. They were found to peak around the declining phase of each solar cycle. While the solar wind velocity peaks around the second half of the declining phase, the IMF field strength increases around the first half of the declining phase of each solar cycle. The power spectrum of these parameters shows peaks around 37-day, 30-day, 27-day, 13.5-day, 9-day, and 7-day periods. The temporal evolution of the power spectrum of the solar wind plasma parameters and the geomagnetic activity index A _p are also studied in detail and presented with the help of contour graphs. These studies indicate that the strength of the quasi-periodicities in the interplanetary medium evolves with time.  相似文献   

Wavelet Analysis on Solar Wind Parameters and Geomagnetic Indices     

C. Katsavrias  P. Preka-Papadema  X. Moussas 《Solar physics》2012,280(2):623-640

The geomagnetic activity is the result of the solar wind–magnetosphere interaction. It varies following the basic 11-year solar cycle; yet shorter time-scale variations appear intermittently. We study the quasi-periodic behavior of the characteristics of solar wind (speed, temperature, pressure, density) and the interplanetary magnetic field (B _x , B _y , B _z , β, Alfvén Mach number) and the variations of the geomagnetic activity indices (D _ST, AE, A _p and K _p). In the analysis of the corresponding 14 time series, which span four solar cycles (1966?–?2010), we use both a wavelet expansion and the Lomb/Scargle periodograms. Our results verify intermittent periodicities in our time-series data, which correspond to already known solar activity variations on timescales shorter than the sunspot cycle; some of these are shared between the solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices.  相似文献   

Evolution of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Indices, and Their Relationship: 1960?�C?2001     

G. Verbanac  M. Mandea  B. Vr?nak  S. Sentic 《Solar physics》2011,271(1-2):183-195

We employ annually averaged solar and geomagnetic activity indices for the period 1960??C?2001 to analyze the relationship between different measures of solar activity as well as the relationship between solar activity and various aspects of geomagnetic activity. In particular, to quantify the solar activity we use the sunspot number R _s, group sunspot number R _g, cumulative sunspot area Cum, solar radio flux F10.7, and interplanetary magnetic field strength IMF. For the geomagnetic activity we employ global indices Ap, Dst and Dcx, as well as the regional geomagnetic index RES, specifically estimated for the European region. In the paper we present the relative evolution of these indices and quantify the correlations between them. Variations have been found in: i) time lag between the solar and geomagnetic indices; ii) relative amplitude of the geomagnetic and solar activity peaks; iii) dual-peak distribution in some of solar and geomagnetic indices. The behavior of geomagnetic indices is correlated the best with IMF variations. Interestingly, among geomagnetic indices, RES shows the highest degree of correlation with solar indices.  相似文献   

High Speed Stream Properties and Related Geomagnetic Activity During the Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI): 20 March to 16 April 2008     

E. Echer  B. T. Tsurutani  W. D. Gonzalez  J. U. Kozyra 《Solar physics》2011,274(1-2):303-320

We study the interplanetary features and concomitant geomagnetic activity of the two high-speed streams (HSSs) selected by the Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI) campaign participants: 20 March to 16 April 2008 in Carrington rotation (CR) 2068. This interval was chosen to perform a comprehensive study of HSSs and their geoeffectiveness during this ??deep?? solar minimum. The two HSSs within the interval were characterized by fast solar-wind speeds (peak values >?600 km?s^?1) containing large-amplitude Alfvénic fluctuations, as is typical of HSSs during normal solar minima. However, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude [B _o] was exceptionally low (??3??C?5 nT) during these HSSs, leading to lower than usual IMF B _z values. The first HSS (HSS1) had favorable IMF polarity for geomagnetic activity (negative during northern Spring). The average AE and Dst for the HSS1 proper (HSS1P) were +?258 nT and ??21 nT, respectively. The second HSS (HSS2) had a positive sector IMF polarity, one that is less favorable for geomagnetic activity. The AE and Dst index averages were +?188 nT and ??7 nT, both lower than corresponding numbers for the first event, as expected. The HSS1P geomagnetic activity is comparable to, and the HSS2P geomagnetic activity lower than, corresponding observations for the previous minimum (1996). Both events?? geomagnetic activities are lower than HSS events previously studied in the declining phase (in 2003). In general, V _sw was faster for the HSSs in 2008 compared to 1996. The southward IMF B _z was lower in the former. The product of these two parameters [V _sw and IMF B _z ] comprises the solar-wind electric field, which is most directly associated with the energy input into the magnetosphere during the HSS intervals. Thus the combined effects led to the solar wind energy input in 2008 being slightly less than that in 1996. A detailed analysis of magnetic-field variances and Alfvénicity is performed to explore the characteristics of Alfvén waves (a central element in the geoeffectiveness of HSSs) during the WHI. The B _z variances in the proto-CIR (PCIR) were ???30 nT² and <?10 nT² in the high speed streams proper.  相似文献   

Twenty-Seven-Day Variation of Galactic Cosmic Rays     

I. Sabbah 《Solar physics》2007,245(1):207-217

Neutron monitor data observed at Climax (CL) and Huancayo/Haleakala (HU/HAL) have been used to calculate the amplitude A of the 27-day variation of galactic cosmic rays (CRs). The median primary rigidity of response, R _m, for these detectors encompasses the range 18 ≤R _m≤46 GV and the threshold rigidity R ₀ covers the range 2.97≤R ₀≤12.9 GV. The daily average values of CR counts have been harmonically analyzed for each Bartels solar rotation (SR) during the period 1953 – 2001. The amplitude of the 27-day CR variation is cross-correlated to solar activity as measured by the sunspot number R, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength B, the z-component B _z of the IMF vector, and the tilt angle ψ of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). It is anticorrelated to the solar coronal hole area (CHA) index as well as to the solar wind speed V. The wind speed V leads the amplitude by 24 SRs. The amplitude of the 27-day CR variation is better correlated to each of the these parameters during positive solar polarity (A>0) than during negative solar polarity (A<0) periods. The CR modulation differs during A>0 from that during A<0 owing to the contribution of the z-component of the IMF. It differs during A ₁>0 (1971 – 1980) from that during A ₂>0 (1992 – 2001) owing to solar wind speed.  相似文献   

Intensity distribution of dayside polar soft electron precipitation and the IMF     

M. Candidi  H.W. Kroehl  C.-I. Meng 《Planetary and Space Science》1983,31(5):489-498

The influence of the B_z and B_y polarity of the IMF on the location of the dayside regions of precipitating, low energy electrons recorded by the DMSP F-2 satellite, is investigated. The average differential electron flux was determined for 2 months during local summer. It is found that the spatial distributions are similar for electrons in the range from 50 to 183 eV. The region of maximum intensity for K_p? 2+ over the Southern Hemisphere is located on the opposite side of noon from the Northern Hemisphere. The current intensity carried by precipitating electrons in the cusp region agrees with that measured by the TRIAD magnetometer. When the IMF is northward a marked asymmetry of the low energy electron precipitation between positive and negative B_y cases is observed. For positive B_y the maximum electron flux occurs between 0800 and 1200 M.L.T.and ?76 and ?83° M.L.A.T.and for negativeB_ythe region occurs between 1200 and 1500 M.L.T. and ?79 and ?82° M.LAT. The dynamical variations associated with substorm activity when the IMF is southward obscure the expected B_y effect.  相似文献   

Interplanetary energy flux associated with magnetospheric substorms     

S.-I. Akasofu 《Planetary and Space Science》1979,27(4):425-431

It is shown that the interplanetary quantity ε(t), obtained by Perreault and Akasofu (1978), for intense geomagnetic storms, also correlates well with individual magnetospheric substonns. This quantity is given by $\text{ε(t) = VB}{}^2\text{sin}{}^4\text{(}\text{θ}\text{2}\text{)l}{}_{\mathrm{o}}{}^2$, where V and B denote the solar wind speed and the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), respectively, and θ denotes the polar angle of the IMF; l_o is a constant ? 7 Earth radii. The AE index is used in this correlation study. The correlation is good enough to predict both the occurrence and intensity of magnetospheric substonns observed in the auroral zone, by monitoring the quantity ε(t) upstream of the solar wind.  相似文献   

NLTE formation of the solar spectrum of silicon: Abundance of silicon in a three-dimensional model of the solar atmosphere     

N. G. Shchukina  A. V. Sukhorukov 《Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies》2013,29(1):17-31

We investigated the NLTE formation of the solar spectrum of neutral silicon using 3D hydrodynamic model of the solar atmosphere and realistic atomic model. We show that, within the intergranular region, combined action of the deficit in the source function and excess in opacity due to the overpopulation of the lower Si I levels leads to a considerably higher increase in the central depth D and equivalent width W of these lines as compared to the granules. We have fitted silicon abundances A _W and A _D from the equivalent widths W and central depths D for 65 Si I lines using a 3D model. We show that a total error in the calculated silicon abundance due to neglecting NLTE and 3D effects, as well as the uncertainty in the van der Waals broadening constant γ₆, turns out to be ?0.1 dex. Using a semiclassical theory by Anstee, Barklem, and O’Mara in calculating γ₆ yields a fair coincidence between the values of A _W and A _D , because the average difference A _W — A _D does not exceed 0.01 dex for both NLTE and LTE. When applying the Unsold’s approximation in calculating γ₆ with an enhancement factor E = 1.5, the abundances A _W and A _D proved to be in disagreement with one another. We analyzed the “solar” oscillator strength scale by Gurtovenko and Kostik, as well as the experimental one by Garz and Becker et al. We show that using “solar” oscillator strengths log gfw leads to a minimum trend with the equivalent widths for NLTE abundances A _W , A _D , their difference A _W — A _D , and standard deviations. The NLTE abundance of silicon obtained using solar oscillator strength scale by Gurtovenko and Kostik is A _W ^NTLE = 7.549 ± 0.016. This value is in good agreement with the value of silicon abundance recommended by Grevesse and Sauval for the CI chondrite meteorites.  相似文献   

Empirical formula to relate the auroral electrojet intensity with interplanetary parameters     

Takashi Murayama  Takao Aoki  Hitoshi Nakai  Kazuyuki Hakamada 《Planetary and Space Science》1980,28(8):803-813

An empirical formula has been constructed using the results of correlative analyses to determine in what form the AL index, as a measure of the intensity of the westward auroral electrojet, depends on interplanetary parameters. The formula thus obtained shows that AL is mainly determined by B_sV² where B_s is the southward component of the IMF and V is the solar wind velocity, and is modulated in a characteristic way by the combined effect of the east-west component of the IMF and the tilt angle of the Earth's dipole axis toward the Sun-Earth line. In contrast, effects of the solar wind density and the IMF variability were found to be insignificant.Implications of the empirical formula are discussed mainly in relation to the problem of the location in the dayside magnetosphere of the region where the reconnection process to initiate the substorm takes place.  相似文献   

Investigation of the Coronal Magnetic Field Using a Type II Solar Radio Burst     

V. Vasanth  S. Umapathy  Bojan Vršnak  Tomislav Žic  O. Prakash 《Solar physics》2014,289(1):251-261

The type II solar radio burst recorded on 13 June 2010 by the Hiraiso Solar Observatory Radio Spectrograph was employed to estimate the magnetic-field strength in the solar corona. The burst was characterized by a well-pronounced band splitting, which we used to estimate the density jump at the shock and Alfvén Mach number using the Rankine–Hugoniot relation. We convert the plasma frequency of the type II burst into height [R] in solar radii using an appropriate density model, and then we estimated the shock speed [V _s], coronal Alfvén velocity [V _A], and the magnetic-field strength at different heights. The relative bandwidth of the band splitting was found to be in the range 0.2?–?0.25, corresponding to a density jump of X=1.44?–?1.56, and an Alfvén Mach number of M _A=1.35?–?1.45. The inferred mean shock speed was on the order of V≈667 km?s^?1. From the dependencies V(R) and M _A(R) we found that the Alfvén speed slightly decreases at R≈1.3?–?1.5 R_⊙. The magnetic-field strength decreases from a value between 2.7 and 1.7 G at R≈1.3?–?1.5 R_⊙, depending on the coronal-density model employed. Our results are in good agreement with the empirical scaling by Dulk and McLean (Solar Phys. 57, 279, 1978) and Gopalswamy et al. (Astrophys. J. 744, 72, 2012). Our results show that the type II band-splitting method is an important tool for inferring the coronal magnetic field, especially when independent measurements are made from white-light observations.  相似文献   

Solar radio bursts and acceleration of solar energy particles     

Yu. T. Tsap  E. A. Isaeva 《Bulletin of the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory》2012,108(1):52-57

The correlation between the proton flux intensity I _p with the energies E _p > 1?100 MeV and radio burst parameters for 107 solar energetic events is considered using the observation data for 1989?C2005 obtained with GOES and Wind satellites, as well as the Radio Solar Telescope Network (RSTN). It has been revealed that 73 and 77% of the events were accompanied by type-II radio bursts in the meter (m II, 25?C299 MHz) and the decameter-hectometer (DH II, 20 kHz?C14 MHz) wavelength ranges, respectively. The correlation coefficient between I _p and the frequency drift velocity of the type-II bursts V _II did not exceed 0.40. As V _II increased, the intensity of I _p increased for the m-II bursts and decreased for the DH-II bursts. Coronal shock waves accelerate protons more efficiently than interplanetary waves, and their contribution to acceleration increases with an increase in the particle energy E _p . The acceleration of solar energetic particles in the region of the flare energy release is predominant.  相似文献   

Ionospheric spread-F at Huancayo,sunspot activity and geomagnetic activity     

G.G. Bowman 《Planetary and Space Science》1974,22(11):1579-1583

A superposed-epoch method is used to investigate the occurrence of spread-F at Huancayo relative to days of high sunspot activity and also relative to days of high geomagnetic activity. A good correlation is found between days of high A_p index and high spread-F occurrence for a pre-sunrise interval of a few hours. When 3-hourly k_p indices are used they show a peak value approximately 6 hr prior to an above-average occurrence of spread-F. It is suggested that this pre-sunrise spread-F is associated with ionospheric height rises which are produced by travelling disturbances, initiated in polar regions at times of high geomagnetic activity.  相似文献   

Ionospheric spread-F at Huancayo,sunspot activity and geomagnetic activity     

G.G. Bowman 《Planetary and Space Science》1975,23(5):899-903

A superposed-epoch method is used to investigate the occurrence of spread-F at Huancayo relative to days of high sunspot activity and also relative to days of high geomagnetic activity. A good correlation is found between days of high A_p, index and high spread-F occurrence for a pre-sunrise interval of a few hours. When 3-hourly K_p indices are used they show a peak value approximately 6 hr prior to an above-average occurrence of spread-F. It is suggested that this pre-sunrise spread-F is associated with ionospheric height rises which are produced by travelling disturbances, initiated in polar regions at times of high geomagnetic activity.  相似文献   

Velocity-Space Proton Diffusion in the Solar Wind Turbulence     

Y. Voitenko  V. Pierrard 《Solar physics》2013,288(1):369-387

We study the velocity-space quasi-linear diffusion of the solar wind protons driven by oblique Alfvén turbulence at proton kinetic scales. Turbulent fluctuations at these scales possess the properties of kinetic Alfvén waves (KAWs) that are efficient in Cherenkov-resonant interactions. The proton diffusion proceeds via Cherenkov kicks and forms a quasi-linear plateau – the nonthermal proton tail in the velocity distribution function (VDF). The tails extend in velocity space along the mean magnetic field from 1 to (1.5?–?3) V _A, depending on the spectral break position, on the turbulence amplitude at the spectral break, and on the spectral slope after the break. The most favorable conditions for the tail generation occur in the regions where the proton thermal and Alfvén velocities are about equal, V _Tp/V _A≈1. The estimated formation times are within 1?–?2 h for typical tails at 1 AU, which is much shorter than the solar wind expansion time. Our results suggest that the nonthermal proton tails, observed in situ at all heliocentric distances >?0.3 AU, are formed locally in the solar wind by the KAW turbulence. We also suggest that the bump-on-tail features – proton beams, often seen in the proton VDFs, can be formed at a later evolutional stage of the nonthermal tails by the time-of-flight effects.  相似文献   

Dependence of the geometry of the region of open field lines on the interplanetary magnetic field     

S.-I. Akasofu  D.N. Covey  C.-I. Meng 《Planetary and Space Science》1981,29(8):803-807

The geometry of the open flux area in the polar region is computed by superposing a uniform interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) with various orientation angles to a model of the magnetosphere. It is confirmed that the IMF B_y component is as important as the B_z component in “opening” the magnetosphere. It is also shown that the computed area of open field lines is remarkably similar to the observed ones which were determined by using the entry of solar electrons. In particular, when the IMF vector is confined in the X-Z-plane and the B_z component has a large positive value, the open area becomes crescent-shaped, coinciding approximately with the cusp region.  相似文献   

A New Forecasting Index for Solar Wind Velocity Based on EIT 284 Å Observations     

Bingxian Luo  Qiuzhen Zhong  Siqing Liu  Jiancun Gong 《Solar physics》2008,250(1):159-170

Various solar wind forecasting methods have been developed during the past decade, such as the Wang?–?Sheeley model and the Hakamada?–?Akasofu?–?Fry Version 2 (HAFv2) model. Also, considerable correlation has been found between the solar wind speed v and the coronal hole (CH) area A _M on the visible side of the Sun, showing quantitative improvement of forecasting accuracy in low CME activity periods (e.g., Vr?nak, Temmer, and Veronig, Solar Phys. 240, 315, 2007a). Properties of lower layers of the solar atmosphere are good indications of the subsequent interplanetary and geomagnetic activities. We analyze the SOHO/EIT 284 Å images and construct a new forecasting factor (Pch) from the brightness of the solar EUV emission, and a good correlation is found between the Pch factor and the 3-day-lag solar wind velocity (v) probed by the ACE spacecraft. The main difference between the Pch and A _M factor is that Pch does not depend on the CH-boundary estimate and can reflect both the area and brightness of CH. A simple method of forecasting the solar wind speed near Earth in low CME activity periods is presented. Between Pch and v from 21 November until 26 December 2003, the linear correlation coefficient is R=0.89. For comparison we also analyze the data in the same period (DOY 25?–?125, 2005) as Vr?nak, Temmer, and Veronig (Solar Phys. 240, 315, 2007a), who used the CH areas A _M for predicting the solar wind parameters. In this period the correlation coefficient between Pch and v is R=0.70, whereas for A _M and v the correlation coefficient is R=0.62. The average relative difference between the calculated and the observed values is $\overline{|\delta|}\approx 12.15\%Various solar wind forecasting methods have been developed during the past decade, such as the Wang – Sheeley model and the Hakamada – Akasofu – Fry Version 2 (HAFv2) model. Also, considerable correlation has been found between the solar wind speed v and the coronal hole (CH) area A _M on the visible side of the Sun, showing quantitative improvement of forecasting accuracy in low CME activity periods (e.g., Vršnak, Temmer, and Veronig, Solar Phys. 240, 315, 2007a). Properties of lower layers of the solar atmosphere are good indications of the subsequent interplanetary and geomagnetic activities. We analyze the SOHO/EIT 284 ? images and construct a new forecasting factor (Pch) from the brightness of the solar EUV emission, and a good correlation is found between the Pch factor and the 3-day-lag solar wind velocity (v) probed by the ACE spacecraft. The main difference between the Pch and A _M factor is that Pch does not depend on the CH-boundary estimate and can reflect both the area and brightness of CH. A simple method of forecasting the solar wind speed near Earth in low CME activity periods is presented. Between Pch and v from 21 November until 26 December 2003, the linear correlation coefficient is R=0.89. For comparison we also analyze the data in the same period (DOY 25 – 125, 2005) as Vršnak, Temmer, and Veronig (Solar Phys. 240, 315, 2007a), who used the CH areas A _M for predicting the solar wind parameters. In this period the correlation coefficient between Pch and v is R=0.70, whereas for A _M and v the correlation coefficient is R=0.62. The average relative difference between the calculated and the observed values is . Furthermore, for the ten peaks during the analysis period, Pch and v show a correlation coefficient of R=0.78, and the average relative difference between the calculated and the observed peak values is . Moreover, the Pch factor can eliminate personal bias in the forecasting process, which existed in the method using CH area as input parameter, because CH area depends on the CH-boundary estimate but Pch does not. Until now the CH-boundary could not be easily determined since no quantitative criteria can be used to precisely locate CHs from observations, which led to differences in forecasting accuracy.  相似文献