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1.
We examine the annual precipitation in Beijing area response to solar activity changes during the period 1749–2001. A hierarchy of changing complex periods of precipitation is carefully detected and related cycles compared with results from SN analysis. Our findings support the suggestion that solar activity influence precipitation, at least in part in Beijing.  相似文献   

2.
The observed effects of solar flares and interplanetary sector crossings seem to indicate that particle precipitation in the Earth's upper atmosphere decreases cyclonic activity in the troposphere. As an extrapolation to longer term effects, it is suggested that the recurrence of prolonged periods of enhanced solar wind particle precipitation in the upper atmosphere during alternate solar minima could cause the recurrence of extreme droughts.  相似文献   

3.
Taking into account reconstructed precipitation time series in Huashan mountain area of China on the one hand and sunspot numbers observations on the other hand, the authors used here continuous wavelet transform and cross wavelet transform to investigate possible connection between the two sets of indicators. The analysis was performed over the last 300 years: it is found that solar activity influences precipitation in that geographical area of China to some extent, with an excess of 5% statistical significance level red noise over the 11-year solar activity cycle.  相似文献   

4.
A few prediction methods have been developed based on the precursor technique which is found to be successful for forecasting the solar activity. Considering the geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding solar cycle as the precursor, we predict the maximum amplitude of annual mean sunspot number in cycle 24 to be 111 ± 21. This suggests that the maximum amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24 will be less than cycles 21–22. Further, we have estimated the annual mean geomagnetic activity aa index for the solar maximum year in cycle 24 to be 20.6 ± 4.7 and the average of the annual mean sunspot number during the descending phase of cycle 24 is estimated to be 48 ± 16.8.  相似文献   

5.
Dramatic extensions of experimental possibilities (spacecraft RHESSI, CORONAS-F and others) in solar gamma-ray astronomy call for urgent, detailed theoretical consideration of a set of physical problems of solar activity and solar-terrestrial relationships that earlier may have only been outlined. Here we undertake a theoretical analysis of issues related to the production of gamma-radiation in the processes of interactions of energetic (accelerated) heavy and middle nuclei with the nuclei of the solar atmosphere (the so-called i-j interactions). We also make an estimate of the contribution of these interactions to the formation of nuclear and isotopic abundances of the solar atmosphere in the range of light and rare elements. The analysis is carried out for solar flares in the wide range of their intensities. We compare our theoretical estimates with RHESSI observations for the flare of 2002 July 23. It was shown that the 24Mg gamma-ray emission in this event was produced by the newly generated Mg nucle  相似文献   

6.
Wavelet Analysis of the Schwabe Cycle Properties in Solar Activity   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Properties of the Schwabe cycles in solar activity are investigated by using wavelet transform. We study the main range of the Schwabe cycles of the solar activity recorded by relative sunspot numbers, and find that the main range of the Schwabe cycles is the periodic span from 8-year to 14-year. We make the comparison of 11-year‘s phase between relative sunspot numbers and sunspot group numbers. The results show that there is some difference between two phases for the interval from 1710 to 1810, while the two phases are almost the same for the interval from 1810 to 1990.  相似文献   

7.
The Magnetic Plage Strength Index(MPSI) and the Mount Wilson Sunspot Index(MWSI), which have been measured at Mount Wilson Observatory(MWO) since the 1970 s and which indicate weak and strong magnetic field activity on the solar full disk, respectively, are used to systematically investigate midterm periodicities in the solar full-disk magnetic fields. Multitudinous mid-term periodicities are detected in MPSI and MWSI on timescales of 0.3 to 4.5 yr, and these periodicities are found to fluctuate around several typical periodicities within a small amplitude in different solar cycles or phases. The periodicity of 3.44 yr is found in MPSI, and the periodicities of 3.85 and 3.00 yr are detected in MWSI. Our analysis indicates that they reflect the true oscillating signals of solar magnetic field activity. The typical periodicities are 2.8,2.3 and 1.8 yr in MPSI and MWSI, and possible mechanisms for these periodicities are discussed. A 1.3 yr periodicity is only detected in MPSI, and should be related to meridional flows on the solar surface. The typical annual periodicity of MPSI and MWSI is 1.07 yr, which is not derived from the annual variation of Earth's heliolatitude. Several periodicities shorter than 1 yr found in MPSI and MWSI are considered to be Rieger-type periodicities.  相似文献   

8.
Can Asymmetry of Solar Activity be Extended into Extended Cycle？   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
With the use of the Royal Greenwich Observatory data set of sunspot groups,an attempt is made to examine the north-south asymmetry of solar activity in the “extended” solar cycles. It is inferred that the asymmetry established for individual solar cycles does not extend to the “extended” cycles.  相似文献   

9.
A two-dimensional numerical model with coupled photochemistry and dynamics has been used to investigate the response of the middle atmosphere (16–116 km) to changes in solar activity over the 11-year solar cycle. Model inputs that vary with solar cycle include solar radiation, cosmic ray and auroral ionization rates and the flux of NOx at the model's upper boundary.In this study, the results of model runs for solar cycle minimum and maximum conditions are compared. In the stratosphere, using currently accepted estimates of changes in solar radiation at wavelengths longer than 180 nm, only small responses in ozone, temperature and zonal winds are obtained. On the other hand, changes at shorter wavelengths, and the effects of particle precipitation, lead to large variations in the abundances of trace species in the thermosphere and upper mesosphere. In particular, very large abundances of NOx are produced above 90 km by auroral particle precipitation. Considerable amounts of NOx are transported subsequently to the stratosphere by the global mean meridional circulation. It is shown that this excess NOx can lead to significant decreases in ozone concentrations at high latitudes and that it may explain observations of nitrate deposition in Antarctic snow.  相似文献   

10.
There is strong statistical evidence that solar activity influences the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. To search for a physical link between the two, we consider the coupled cloud hydrodynamic equations, and derive an equation for the rate of precipitation that is similar to the equation of a forced harmonic oscillator, with cloud and rain water mixing ratios as forcing variables. Those internal forcing variables are parameterized in terms of the combined effect of external forcing as measured by sunspot and coronal hole activities with several well known solar periods (9, 13 and 27 days; 1.3, 5, 11 and 22 years). The equation is then numerically solved and the results show that the variability of the simulated rate of precipitation captures very well the actual variability of the Indian monsoon rainfall, yielding vital clues for a physical understanding that has so far eluded analyses based on statistical correlations alone. We also solved the precipitation equation by allowing for the effects of long-term variation of aerosols. We tentatively conclude that the net effects of aerosols variation are small, when compared to the solar factors, in terms of explaining the observed rainfall variability covering the full Indian monsoonal geographical domains.  相似文献   

11.
The cross-correlation coefficient (t) of the solar tidal force induced by the planets f(x + t) with the sunspot number g(x) during a period of 44 years is about -0.7 when t is about -2 years. This fact will be useful for predicting solar activity. The solar tidal force was calculated from 1928 to 1971 for every degree on the equatorial plane and every time every planet moves one degree. As the solar tidal force, we used the moving annual average by months of the square of the vertical tidal force on the sun, and as the sunspot number we used the Zürich mean annual sunspot number.  相似文献   

12.
New Evidence for Long-Term Persistence in the Sun's Activity   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Possible persistence of sunspot activity was studied using rescaled range and detrended fluctuation analyses. In addition to actual Wolf numbers (1700–2000 A.D.), two solar proxies were used in this research, viz., an annual sunspot proxy obtained for 1090–1700 A.D. and sunspot numbers reconstructed from the decadal radiocarbon series (8005 B.C. – 1895 A.D). The reconstruction was made using a five-box carbon exchange model. Analyses showed that in all cases the scaling exponent is significantly higher than 0.5 in the range of scales from 25 yr up to 3000 yr. This indicates the existence of a long-term memory in solar activity, in agreement with results obtained for other solar indices.  相似文献   

13.
Lotova  N.A.  Obridko  V.N.  Vladimirskii  K.V.  Bird  M.K.  Pätzold  M.  Sieber  W.  Güsten  R.  Korelov  O.A. 《Solar physics》1999,189(2):387-398
Long-term scintillation measurements of the solar wind formation zone at solar elongations ranging from 1°–8° (Sun impact parameters: 4–30 R ) were recorded using the water maser source IRC-20431 at the wavelength =1.35 cm during its annual solar occultations in December 1981–1998. Dramatic changes in the spatial dependence of the scintillation index were recorded over the course of the 11-year solar cycle. Markedly diminished scattering, attributed to a pronounced heliolatitude effect, was observed at the closest solar approach distances in the years around solar activity minimum. From parallel investigations of the solar magnetic field structure it was determined that the field strength at the source of the solar wind streamlines is the governing factor for the solar wind acceleration process. Particularly apparent in the scintillation data during solar activity minimum is the increasing role of the polar coronal holes with their associated open magnetic field structure. The dependence of the solar scattering intensity on heliolatitude fades in the years of high solar activity as the level of scintillations increases at polar latitudes.  相似文献   

14.
The annual average values of the solar wind velocity over the period 1962–1972 were investigated on the basis of data obtained from different space probes. The comparison of the pattern of the annual average solar wind velocities observed by the Vela and Pioneer 6 satellites indicates that the pattern presented by Gosling et al. (1971) is realistic. The long-range trend in the solar wind velocity during the 11-year cycle is governed by the number and intensity of irregularities occurring in the corona. These irregularities may represent motions of mass or some types of MHD shock waves and they are responsible for the increased heating of the corona which then in turn causes an increase in the values of the solar radar cross-section and of the solar wind velocity. A close relation is demonstrated between the monthly and annual average values of the solar wind velocity and of the cross-section.  相似文献   

15.
In this paper, applying Vondrák band filter to both series of (l.o.d.) and sunspot relative number (R), we obtain variations of amplitude of 11 yr term during 1800–1985. The results show that solar cyclic signal in (l.o.d.) series is weak and unstable. The amplitude of 11 yr term in R series has long-periodic variation. The paper has briefly discussed some results about effects of solar activity on the Earth's rotation through the atmospheric motion. From the variation of (l.o.d.) obtained by band filter, we find that maxima of amplitude of annual term in (l.o.d.) occur at the same time with those of sunspot number. It implies that the angular momentum imbalance between the circulations in Southern Hemisphere and Northern Hemisphere is controlled in some way by solar activity.  相似文献   

16.
The diurnal variation of cosmic ray intensity, based on the records of two neutron monitor stations at Athens (Greece) and Oulu (Finland) for the time period 2001 to 2014, is studied. This period covers the maximum and the descending phase of the solar cycle 23, the minimum of the solar cycles 23/24 and the ascending phase of the solar cycle 24.These two stations differ in their geographic latitude and magnetic threshold rigidity. The amplitude and phase of the diurnal anisotropy vectors have been calculated on annual and monthly basis.From our analysis it is resulted that there is a different behaviour in the characteristics of the diurnal anisotropy during the different phases of the solar cycle, depended on the solar magnetic field polarity, but also during extreme events of solar activity, such as Ground Level Enhancements and cosmic ray events, such as Forbush decreases and magnetospheric events. These results may be useful to Space Weather forecasting and especially to Biomagnetic studies.  相似文献   

17.
Data from the Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer (SWICS) on Ulysses and synoptic maps from Kitt Peak are used to analyze the polar coronal holes of solar activity cycles 22 and 23 (from 1990 to end of 2003). In the beginning of the declining phase of solar cycles 22 and 23, the north polar coronal holes (PCHs) appear about one year earlier than the ones in the south polar region. The solar wind velocity and the solar wind ionic charge composition exhibit a characteristic dependence on the solar wind source position within a PCH. From the center toward the boundary of a young PCH, the solar wind velocity decreases, coinciding with a shift of the ionic charge composition toward higher charge states. However, for an old PCH, the ionic charge composition does not show any obvious change, although the latitude evolution of the velocity is similar to that of a young PCH.  相似文献   

18.
1 INTRODUCTION The Sun is close enough to observe in some detail, and it shows that a star is more than the traditional stable self-gravitating thermonuclear body established half a celltury ago. For the fact is that out of sight beneath the visible surface the outward flow of heat from the thermonuclear core drives hydrodynamics that generates magnetic fields. It is the complicated dynamics of those magnetic fields that produces the modern mysteries of the active Sun. The…  相似文献   

19.
Meyer  F. De 《Solar physics》2003,217(2):349-366
The mean annual sunspot record for the time interval 1700–2002 can be considered as a sequence of independent, partly overlapping events, triggered quasi-periodically at intervals of the order of 11 years. The individual cycles are approximated by the step response of a band-pass dynamical system and the resulting model consists of the superposition of the response to the independent pulses. The simulated sunspot data explain 98.4% of the cycle peak height variance and the residual standard deviation is 8.2 mean annual sunspots. An empirical linear relationship is found between the amplitude of the transfer function model for each cycle and the pulse interval of the preceding cycle that can be used as a tool of short-term forecasting of solar activity. A peak height of 112 for the solar cycle 23 occurring in 2000 is predicted, whereas the next cycle would start at about 2007 and will have a maximum around 110 in 2011. Cycle 24 is expected to have an annual mean peak value in the range 95 to 125. The model reproduces the high level of amplitude modulation in the interval 1950–2000 with a decrease afterwards, but the peak values for the cycles 18, 19, 21, and 22 are fairly underestimated. The semi-empirical model also recreates recurring sunspot minima and is linked to the phenomenon of the reversal of the solar magnetic field.  相似文献   

20.
Observations of interplanetary magnetic field polarity, solar wind speed, and geomagnetic disturbance index (C9) during the years 1962–1975 are compared in a 27-day pictorial format that emphasizes their associated variations during the sunspot cycle. This display accentuates graphically several recently reported features of solar wind streams including the fact that the streams were faster, wider, and longer-lived during 1962–1964 and 1973–1975 in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle than during intervening years (Bame et al., 1976; Gosling et al., 1976). The display reveals strikingly that these high-speed streams were associated with the major, recurrent patterns of geomagnetic activity that are characteristic of the declining phase of the sunspot cycle. Finally, the display shows that during 1962–1975 the association between long-lived solar wind streams and recurrent geomagnetic disturbances was modulated by the annual variation (Burch, 1973) of the response of the geomagnetic field to solar wind conditions. The phase of this annual variation depends on the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field in the sense that negative sectors of the interplanetary field have their greatest geomagnetic effect in northern hemisphere spring, and positive sectors have their greatest effect in the fall. During 1965–1972 when the solar wind streams were relatively slow (500 km s-1), the annual variation strongly influenced the visibility of the corresponding geomagnetic disturbance patterns.Visiting Scientist, Kitt Peak National Observatory, Tucson, Arizona.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under contract with the National Science Foundation.  相似文献   

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