首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 109 毫秒
1.
This paper is a multi‐sited ethnography of cross‐border rubber cultivation between China and Laos. Smallholder minority rubber farmers from Xishuangbanna (China) have forged successful informal share‐cropping arrangements to grow rubber trees on the land of relatives and friends in neighbouring Laos. By becoming rich and entrepreneurial rural citizens, Akha and Tai farmers have also, in their own eyes, raised their own ‘quality’ (suzhi) and see themselves as ‘modern’. By examining various meanings of ‘modern’ in China, and contrasting the rubber farmers' experience with Jacob Eyferth's notion of rural ‘deskilling’, this paper shows how through learning to plant, cultivate and tap rubber, these farmers have taken on the discipline and technical knowledge of ‘modern’ workers and become ‘skilled’. By rising in ‘quality’, minority farmers on China's periphery challenge the entrenched binaries of urban/rural, modern/backward, prosperous/poor and Han/minority nationality. Xishuangbanna minority farmers acknowledge that they are also ‘backward’ in the Chinese social hierarchy, but their extension of rubber cultivation to kin and others in Laos has confirmed their modernity as dispensers of development, technical know‐how and ‘superior’ Chinese culture to Lao farmers who are ‘backward and poor’. In contrast to large state rubber farms that have failed to establish rubber plantations in northern Laos, minority farmers have created regionalization.  相似文献   

2.
The concepts of degraded forest (pa mai xout xom) and degraded land (din seuam xom) have been variously applied in official Lao government policy narratives and law over the last couple of decades. In this article I focus on the concepts of degraded forest and land, and the relationship with industrial tree plantations, using two examples from southern Laos. I argue that the concepts have been significant in both facilitating and obstructing the development of large‐scale industrial tree plantations in different times and spaces, thus significantly influencing access and exclusion, as well as the spatialization of tree plantations. I provide a tentative genealogy regarding the emergence of these concepts in land and forestry policy in Laos, and briefly explain the links between degradation and ‘the land rush’ presently affecting Laos.  相似文献   

3.
20世纪90年代以来,在全球橡胶市场和地缘经济合作机制的影响下,作为中南半岛唯一的内陆国家,老挝正在经历以橡胶林扩展种植为主导的土地覆被/土地利用变化(LCLUC)。橡胶扩展种植不仅对全球最大的橡胶消费国——中国进口天然橡胶至关重要,其引起的LCLUC也对老挝国内农户社会经济和生态环境造成了深刻影响。本文首先总结了老挝橡胶林种植模式、扩展机制和发展潜力,其次回顾了老挝橡胶扩展种植相关研究进展及橡胶林遥感方法研究进展。综述表明：老挝境内橡胶林种植模式、适宜性空间评价、遥感监测、社会经济与生态环境影响评估研究,总体上仍处于起步阶段。迄今,有关老挝全国层面的橡胶林种植和扩展地理分布及时空变化信息仍非常缺乏,同时橡胶林种植与快速扩展对农户生计和自然环境(水土流失、水源涵养和生物多样性等)影响尚缺乏系统研究,这也是未来需要优先关注的研究方向。本文有助于更好地理解老挝橡胶林扩展特征及其社会与环境影响,既可为指导老挝橡胶种植业有序良性发展提供科技支撑,也可为中国海南与云南等省橡胶发展提供借鉴。  相似文献   

4.
Young Vietnamese men who witnessed their mother's changing economic and labour market situations through the early years of Ð?i m?i (the policy of economic liberalization in Vietnam after 1986) have developed conceptions of masculinity that are ambivalent to notions of male power and authority within what is often termed the ‘traditional’ neo-Confucian family. On the basis of the life narratives of a small group of men in their early twenties, the author suggests that the value young men place on their mother's work and familial influence during Ð?i m?i contrasts with the findings of much gender scholarship on women's social and economic (im) mobility in the 1990s in Vietnam and on young men's own masculinist narratives. Most gender-sensitive research in this area has suggested that Vietnamese women remained curtailed in the early 1990s by a resurgence of male-oriented kinship systems and patriarchal structures at household level. However, the author discusses the young men as being equivocal. While invoking broad Confucian tropes, these men remember their mothers as economically dynamic relative to their fathers. This led to the informants citing their mother's histories of economic risk-taking as exemplifying free-market capability. Further, the finding suggests that Vietnamese women's social and economic mobility in the 1990s strongly affected young men's contemporary ideas and practices related to masculinity.  相似文献   

5.
Muang Sing in Luang Namtha province, an administrative district of northern Laos bordering Myanmar and China, has been portrayed by the Lao government and international development agencies as a ‘poor’ rural region in need of development. To developers, Muang Sing's remoteness from major towns and the livelihoods of ethnic people such as the Akha in the uplands based on swidden agriculture and opium production characterized ‘poverty’. To address this rural poverty, state and development agencies devised land use zoning that would demarcate and regulate various land uses in line with a rural development plan for the district. This vision for regulated development began to go awry, however, as farmers and traders in Muang Sing launched their own rapid social and economic changes. In contrast to the official image of a backward rural district in need of outside assistance, this paper portrays farmers and local entrepreneurs of the Muang Sing borderlands as actively transforming their lives and agricultural landscapes. This paper challenges the official version of a remote, poor district untouched by regional trade through a focus on narratives of local people. Ethnographic research reveals the dynamic micro‐processes of agrarian transformation during recent decades to highlight the centrality of borderland people in reworking their lives and agricultural landscapes through cross‐border relationships in China.  相似文献   

6.
This article discusses the relevance of the work of Pierre Gourou for Vietnamese and non‐Vietnamese scholarship on colonial and postcolonial rural society in Vietnam. The term “tropicality” is used to situate Gourou's work within the framework of both French and Vietnamese regimes of truth. It is argued that Gourou was aware of the complex human geographies of the tropics and monsoon Asia and the challenges this posed to both Western and “tropical” peoples. Gourou and the issue of tropicality is used to show that Vietnamese scholars did not completely reject French colonial systems of knowledge, and that decolonisation did not herald a complete shift in knowledge about rural Vietnam. Rather, since the 1940s there has been antagonism and accommodation between colonial and postcolonial, French and Vietnamese modes of knowledge production. While Gourou underscored the otherness of the tropics, and there are colonial overtones in his work, he had an immense influence on indigenous ethnography and geography in Vietnam and elsewhere in the formerly colonised world. The article traces this important influence and how it has been both questioned and affirmed since independence in the Vietnamese context. It is suggested that the humanistic approach that Gourou pioneered in his 1936 study of the Red River Delta of northern Vietnam has outlived and been able to overcome the setbacks and drawbacks of both colonial and revolutionary/Vietnamese politico‐intellectual projects.  相似文献   

7.
This paper discusses the governing of subjects and objects' mobility in the context of trans‐border rice and corn trade on the China‐Laos frontier. It traces the attempts by a group of ethnic Tai Lue traders from China to assert themselves as ‘flexible subjects’ and economically triumphant actors on the Upper Mekong market in the era of economic regionalization. It illustrates how, between 2005 and mid‐2006, the traders' economic success relied on a variety of ‘border strategies’. ‘Border strategies’ include a gender‐balanced organization of trade, the instrumental deployment of trans‐border ethnicity, the appropriation of a Han style of business, the opportunistic reliance on the Chinese administration's ‘regime of graduated mobility’, and the enactment of a ‘war‐machine’ against Lao state agents. Yet, in late 2006, a new wave of state authoritarianism, enmeshed in corporate accumulation processes, inhibited the traders' success. The paper suggests that, unlike what some defenders of globalization and transnational theories maintain, in the age of economic regionalization, the alleged flexibility and increased mobility of subjects and objects across the borders of the Greater Mekong Subregion remain conditional on an unpredictable mechanism of loosening and tightening. This is part of a long‐applied governing pattern of ‘experimentation under hierarchy’ on the Sino‐Lao frontier.  相似文献   

8.
Expanding global and regional markets are driving the conversion of traditional subsistence agricultural and occupied non-agricultural lands to commercial-agricultural purposes. In many parts of mainland Southeast Asia rubber plantations are expanding rapidly into areas where the crop was not historically found. Over the last several decades more than one million hectares of land have been converted to rubber trees in areas of China, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar, where rubber trees were not traditionally grown. This expansion of rubber plantations has replaced ecologically important secondary forests and traditionally managed swidden fields and influenced local energy, water and carbon fluxes. Accurate and up-to-date monitoring and mapping of rubber tree growth is critical to understanding the implications of this changing ecosystem. Discriminating rubber trees from second-growth forests and fallow land has proven challenging. Previous experiments using machine-learning approaches with hard classifications on remotely sensed data, when faced with the realities of a heterogeneous plant-life mixture and high intra-class variance, have tended to overestimate the areas of rubber tree growth. Our current research sought to: 1) to investigate the potential of using a Mahalanobis typicality model to deal with mixed pixels; and 2) to explore the potential for combining MOderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery with sub-national statistical data on rubber tree areas to map the distribution of rubber tree growth across this mainland Southeast Asia landscape. Our study used time-series MODIS Terra 16-day composite 250 m Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products (MOD13Q1) acquired between March 2009 and May 2010. We used the Mahalanobis typicality method to identify pixels where rubber tree growth had the highest probability of occurring and sub-national statistical data on rubber tree growth to quantify the number of pixels of rubber tree growth mapped per administrative unit. We used Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) and error matrix analysis, respectively, to assess the viability of Mahalanobis typicalities and to validate classification accuracy. High ROC values, over 0.8, were achieved with the Mahalanobis typicality images of both mature and young rubber trees. The proposed method greatly reduced the commission errors for the two types of rubber tree growth to 1.9% and 2.8%, respectively (corresponding to user’s accuracies of 98.1% and 97.2%, respectively). Results indicate that integrating Mahalanobis typicalities with MODIS time-series NDVI data and sub-national statistics can successfully overcome the earlier overestimation problem.  相似文献   

9.
The Siiphandone wetland in Khong district, Champasak province, Lao PDR, is one of the most important fisheries in the Mekong River basin. The resource, situated along the Laos‐Cambodia border, supports the livelihoods of around 65,000 inhabitants, mainly semi‐subsistence rice farmers or fishers. In January 2000, the provincial authority was given a special dispensation by the Lao government to allow the importation of Cambodian fish through Khong district, for export to Thailand. Previously, in large part due to the government's policy of food self‐sufficiency, the export of Lao fish was illegal. This paper examines how the implementation of this law has influenced existing legal and illegal trade networks from the Siiphandone fishery by comparing the findings of two studies, one conducted before and the other after the change in the law. In doing so, the transition of the fishery from a local, food‐important resource to an increasingly regional, market‐oriented resource is examined. Conclusions are drawn as to the impact this change has had on the livelihoods of fishers and traders involved in the fishery.  相似文献   

10.
This paper investigates the direct and cascading land system consequences of a Chinese company's land acquisition for rubber cultivation in northern Laos. Transnational land acquisitions are increasingly acknowledged as an important driver of direct land use conversion with implications for local land‐based livelihoods. The paper presents an empirical case study of the village of Na Nhang Neua in Nambak District, Luang Prabang Province, using a mixed methods approach to investigate the positive and negative implications for household agricultural strategies, income generation and food security. Combining the conceptual lenses of land systems and livelihood approaches, this paper demonstrates how the land use system has changed substantially because of the establishment of the rubber plantation by the company, notably in the linkages between livestock rearing, upland shifting cultivation and lowland paddy rice cultivation. The changes go beyond the immediate competition for land caused by the rubber plantation: a penalty scheme introduced by the rubber company for damage to rubber trees caused by browsing animals has led the villagers to abandon livestock rearing, causing a cascade of negative effects on the entire land use system, especially on soil fertility, rice yields and food production.  相似文献   

11.
Rubber plantation is the major land use type in Southeast Asia. Monitoring the spa- tial-temporal pattern of rubber plantation is significant for regional land resource development, eco-environmental protection, and maintaining border security. With remote sensing tech- nologies, we analyzed the rubber distribution pattern and spatial-temporal dynamic; with GIS and a newly proposed index of Planted Intensity （PI）, we further quantified the impacts and limits of topographical factors on rubber plantation in the border region of China, Laos and Myanmar （BRCLM） between 1980 and 2010. The results showed that： （1） As the dominant land use type in this border region, the acreage of rubber plantation was 6014 km2 in 2010, accounting for 8.17% of the total area. Viewing from the rubber plantation structure, the ratio of mature- （〉10 year） and young rubber plantation （〈 10 year） was 5：7. （2） From 1980 to 2010, rubber plantation expanded significantly in BRCLM, from 705 km2 to 6014 km2, nearly nine times. The distribution characteristics of rubber plantation varied from concentrated toward dispersed, from border inside to outside, and expanded further in all directions with Jinghong City as the center. （3） Restricted by the topographical factors, more than 4/5 proportion of rubber plantation concentrated in the appropriate elevation gradients between 600 and 1000 m, rarely occurred in elevations beyond 1200 m in BRCLM. Nearly 2/3 of rubber plantation concentrated on slopes of 8~-25~, rarely distributed on slopes above 35~. Rubber plantation was primarily distributed in south and east aspects, relatively few in north and west aspects. Rubber planted intensity displayed the similar distribution trend. （4） Comparative studies of rubber plantation in different countries showed that there was a remarkable increase in area at higher elevations and steeper slopes in China, while there were large appropriate topog- raphical gradients for rubber plantation in Laos and Myanmar which benefited China for rubber trans-boundary expansion. （5） Rubber plantation in BRCLM will definitely expend cross borders of China to the territories of Laos and Myanmar, and the continuous expansion in the border region of China will be inevitable.  相似文献   

12.
Anger, grief, regret and shame are some of the myriad ways that people narrate a decade of life along the Chad‐Cameroon Oil Pipeline. These stories reveal a perceptive and collective socio‐political awareness situated within multifaceted emotional geographies of resistance. In spite of resistance narratives, explicit and collective resistance practices remain uncommon. As people struggle and live within composite landscapes of structural violence along the pipeline, particular processes and mechanisms of uneven power influence the tendency for resistance struggles to be slow, impromptu or labour based. In this comparative ethnographic analysis, I consider the political environment that shapes socio‐political emotional ties in Nanga, particularly its socio‐political positioning as ‘the village of the First Lady’. In this case, people in proximate positions vis‐à‐vis the ruling family experience heightened oppression(s) and dispossession(s), at the same time that they report feeling little political recourse. In Kribi, on the other hand, responses to the pipeline can be described as defiant withdrawals, demonstrated through a series of unconnected refusals. Although resistance practices along the pipeline have not been visible or successful in an established sense, emotional geographies of resistance elucidate long‐term struggles to survive (i.e., slow dissent), including the accumulation of a collective emotional consciousness grounded in an awareness of historical patterns of injustice.  相似文献   

13.
中老缅交界地区橡胶种植的时空格局及其地形因素分析   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  
封志明  刘晓娜  姜鲁光  李鹏 《地理学报》2013,68(10):1432-1446
橡胶林地是东南亚地区主要的土地利用类型,动态监测橡胶种植并分析其时空变化规律,对于区域土地资源开发、生态环境保护以及维护边境安全稳定具有重要意义。本文基于遥感技术实地研究了中老缅交界地区1980-2010 年的橡胶林地分布格局及其时空变化规律,定量分析了橡胶林地的分布特征及其地形因素的影响与限制。结果表明:(1) 2010 年中老缅交界地区橡胶林地面积为60.14 万hm2,占土地面积的8.17%,是研究区最大的土地利用类型。就林地结构来看,橡胶成林(≥10 年) 与橡胶幼林(<10 年) 之比大体是5:7,近10 年来橡胶林地扩展迅速。(2) 1980-2010 年中老缅交界地区橡胶林地已由最初的7.05 万hm2增加到60.14 万hm2,扩展近9 倍,橡胶林地扩张显著。橡胶林地已呈现由集中至分散、由边境向国外,“以景洪为中心、北上南进、西拓东扩”的空间分布格局与地域扩展特征。(3) 中老缅交界地区橡胶种植受地形因素制约,橡胶林地4/5 以上集中在600~1000 m适宜区间,很少超过1200 m;近2/3 集中分布在8°~25°的坡地,极少或很少分布在超过35°的急陡坡;主要分布在南坡和东坡,北坡和西坡相对较少,橡胶种植强度也呈现相同规律。(4) 橡胶林地国别对比分析表明,中国境内橡胶林地在向高海拔、陡坡地扩展,老缅境内具有较大地形适宜空间,有利于橡胶种植的跨境发展。(5) 中老缅交界地区的橡胶种植必将由中国向老挝和缅甸跨境发展,老挝和缅甸境内,特别是近中国边境地区的橡胶林地持续扩张已是不可避免。  相似文献   

14.
Sudden and gradual land use changes can result in different socio-ecological systems, sometimes referred to as regime shifts. The Lao PDR (Laos) has been reported to show early signs of such regime shifts in land systems with potentially major socio-ecological implications. However, given the complex mosaic of different land systems, including shifting cultivation, such changes are not easily assessed using traditional land cover data. Moreover, regime shifts in land systems are difficult to simulate with traditional land cover modelling approaches. A novel simulation approach was employed that focused on simulating changes in land systems rather than focusing on land cover. With the CLUmondo model we simulated three scenarios of potential developments between the years 2010 and 2030 assuming different degrees of international market integration and sustainable growth objectives. Although all scenarios show a decline of shifting cultivation systems, the respective orientation of markets and land governance resulted in strongly different land change trajectories. The land system changes are strongly location dependent and different trajectories are found in different parts of the country. Some scenarios show clear elements of land sparing with intensification of land management in the valleys and re-growth of forest on sloping land. Other scenarios show elements of enhanced multi-functionality. The approach addressed methodological challenges in simulating land system regime shifts and complex mosaic landscapes while accounting for societal demands for different types of goods and services from land systems. The land systems approach allows a nuanced representation of different types of forests and agricultural systems such as shifting cultivation and commercial agricultural plantations. Simulation results contribute to a debate about desired future land use on the national scale including its environmental and socio-economic implications.  相似文献   

15.
ABSTRACT

Government efforts to industrialise and modernise the Lao economy through intensive resource development are having adverse effects on rural livelihoods as resources are degraded and access to limited land and natural resources has intensified. In one of the country's key river basins, Nam Ngum, a series of resource developments including hydropower, mining and agricultural plantations have modified the landscape over the last four decades. Uncoordinated resource developments are putting intense pressure on increasingly scarce natural resources and affecting the lives of people who are dependent on them. Economic diversification of rural households in Feuang District in the Nam Ngum River Basin has created significant discrepancies between the rich and the poor, yet all households remain primarily dependent on agriculture. Land is of enduring importance to rural livelihoods. National development intervention has failed to secure basic livelihoods for rural households.  相似文献   

16.
In the coastal area of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, much of the mangrove forest has been cut to make space for expansion of industry and aquaculture. Export‐oriented shrimp farming is a particularly fast‐growing business. Nonetheless, the importance of tropical mangrove forest ecosystems for coastal protection and marine biodiversity is widely recognized. The Vietnamese government, supported by non‐governmental organizations and donors, has sought to restore mangrove forest. To this end, the government has promoted mixed or integrated mangrove‐shrimp systems in which farmers maintain at least 40 per cent of their area under mangrove cover. Since 2012, mangrove reforestation, care and protection has benefited from local authority stimulus as well. Multiple studies have examined the condition of the mangrove forest in Ben Tre and other coastal provinces of the Mekong Delta. However, no research has investigated the role of social dynamics in farmers’ willingness to shift to, or maintain, integrated mangrove‐shrimp systems. Specifically, the influence of information, group dynamics and social learning on farmer decision‐making is poorly understood and, indeed, hardly investigated in Vietnam. This article reports on a study of social processes in three communes in Binh Dai District, Ben Tre Province, Vietnam. We conducted 42 semi‐structured interviews (with 34 farmers and eight local officials) and used secondary data. Our preliminary findings indicate that social dynamics in these communes were issue‐driven and played an important role in farmers’ decisions to adopt, or convert to, the integrated mangrove‐shrimp farming system. Television, radio, the internet, books, neighbours and training courses all had some influence in farmer decision‐making processes. However, our findings suggest that the accessibility, usefulness, relevance and approach of these communication methods must be improved if they are to adequately inform and support local farmers.  相似文献   

17.
Shifting cultivation is often blamed for deforestation in tropical upland areas. Based on a case study of three villages in northern Lao PDR, this paper combines household surveys with a remote sensing based analysis of forest cover, covering the period 1989–1999, in order to analyse changes in shifting cultivation practices and livelihood strategies and the impact of these on deforestation. Due to population pressure and relocation of villages, easily accessed land is increasingly scarce and fallow periods have been shortened during the 1990s. A net annual deforestation of about 1% was found in the area during the study period. This deforestation rate reflects shorter fallow periods in secondary forests rather than encroachment on mature forests, which are not used for cultivation by the farmers in the three villages. Farmers rate scarce labour as a major constraint on shifting cultivation; nonetheless, a tendency towards lower labour input with shorter fallow periods is observed, contradicting conventional intensification theory. Livelihoods are diversifying through the establishment of plantations, cultivation of wet rice and adoption of animal husbandry, but given the socio-economic conditions in the area, shifting cultivation is likely to remain the most suitable farming system in the near future.  相似文献   

18.
基于RS和GIS的西双版纳土地覆被动态变化   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  
人口增加、经济发展导致滇南热带地区西双版纳土地利用/土地覆被发生显著变化,这些变化对该区的生态环境及生物多样性保护有着重要影响。基于RS和GIS方法,通过对1976、1988和2003年三个时期遥感影像解译分析,试图了解西双版纳近27 a间土地利用/土地覆被时空变化特征及影响因素。结果表明,近27 a间有林地在西双版纳分布最广、占绝对优势,其中以亚热带常绿阔叶林面积最大;但在研究时段内,有林地面积不断减少、呈现破碎化,尤其是热带季节雨林、山地雨林面积减少最为明显和破碎化最为严重。相应,橡胶园、灌木林面积不断扩大并聚集成片,其中橡胶园在1988~2003年间是面积增长最快、最多的地类,其面积扩张主要来源于对热带季节雨林的砍伐。轮歇地面积在1976~1988年是所有地类中增长最快、最多的,在1988~2003年由于向橡胶园转变而大幅度减小。粗放式的刀耕火种和橡胶种植园的不断扩大是主导本区土地利用/土地覆被变化的主要因素,土地利用变化导致了本区生态环境的退化和生物多样性的丢失。  相似文献   

19.
Drawing on qualitative interviews conducted in two provinces of southern Thailand, Nakhon Si Thammarat and Phatthalung in 2015 and 2016, this paper engages with literature on the politics of scale to consider the relationships among the practice of growing rubber and regional belonging. In many ways decoupling low rubber prices (at the time of writing) from a larger story of substantial, multinational increases in rubber cultivation and production since the early 2000s, a common calculus in southern Thailand among smallholder rubber farmers, or chao suan yang in Thai, of current price woes points in large measure to past policy moves by the Thai government, and especially under the administration of Thaksin Shinawatra in the mid‐2000s, to promote rubber cultivation into northern and northeastern provinces. I contend that emphasis given to such a regional‐national, in other words Thai, story of declines in rubber prices entails noteworthy moments of translation whereby rubber's scales are reconstru(ct)ed through appeals to regional legacies and perceptions of a transmission of ‘southern Thai rubber’ outside of the south.  相似文献   

20.
THE 'LITTLE ICE AGE': RE-EVALUATION OF AN EVOLVING CONCEPT   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
ABSTRACT. This review focuses on the development of the ‘Little Ice Age’ as a glaciological and climatic concept, and evaluates its current usefulness in the light of new data on the glacier and climatic variations of the last millennium and of the Holocene. ‘Little Ice Age’ glacierization occurred over about 650 years and can be defined most precisely in the European Alps (c. AD 1300–1950) when extended glaciers were larger than before or since. ‘Little Ice Age’ climate is defined as a shorter time interval of about 330 years (c. AD 1570–1900) when Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures (land areas north of 20°N) fell significantly below the AD 1961–1990 mean. This climatic definition overlaps the times when the Alpine glaciers attained their latest two highstands (AD 1650 and 1850). It is emphasized, however, that ‘Little Ice Age’ glacierization was highly dependent on winter precipitation and that ‘Little Ice Age’ climate was not simply a matter of summer temperatures. Both the glacier‐centred and the climate‐centred concepts necessarily encompass considerable spatial and temporal variability, which are investigated using maps of mean summer temperature variations over the Northern Hemisphere at 30‐year intervals from AD 1571 to 1900. ‘Little Ice Age’‐type events occurred earlier in the Holocene as exemplified by at least seven glacier expansion episodes that have been identified in southern Norway. Such events provide a broader context and renewed relevance for the ‘Little Ice Age’, which may be viewed as a ‘modern analogue’ for the earlier events; and the likelihood that similar events will occur in the future has implications for climatic change in the twenty‐first century. It is concluded that the concept of a ‘Little Ice Age’ will remain useful only by (1) continuing to incorporate the temporal and spatial complexities of glacier and climatic variations as they become better known, and (2) by reflecting improved understanding of the Earth‐atmosphere‐ocean system and its forcing factors through the interaction of palaeoclimatic reconstruction with climate modelling.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号