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1.
Probabilistic evaluation of flood hazard in urban areas using Monte Carlo simulation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The goal of the presented research was the derivation of flood hazard maps, using Monte Carlo simulation of flood propagation at an urban site in the UK, specifically an urban area of the city of Glasgow. A hydrodynamic model describing the propagation of flood waves, based on the De Saint Venant equations in two‐dimensional form capable of accounting for the topographic complexity of the area (preferential outflow paths, buildings, manholes, etc.) and for the characteristics of prevailing imperviousness typical of the urban areas, has been used to derive the hydrodynamic characteristics of flood events (i.e. water depths and flow velocities). The knowledge of the water depth distribution and of the current velocities derived from the propagation model along with the knowledge of the topographic characteristics of the urban area from digital map data allowed for the production of hazard maps based on properly defined hazard indexes. These indexes are evaluated in a probabilistic framework to overcome the classical problem of single deterministic prediction of flood extent for the design event and to introduce the concept of the likelihood of flooding at a given point as the sum of data uncertainty, model structural error and parameterization uncertainty. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
Abstract Flood hazard maps were developed using remote sensing (RS) data for the historical event of the 1988 flood with data of elevation height, and geological and physiographic divisions. Flood damage depends on the hydraulic factors which include characteristics of the flood such as the depth of flooding, rate of the rise in water level, propagation of a flood wave, duration and frequency of flooding, sediment load, and timing. In this study flood depth and “flood-affected frequency” within one flood event were considered for the evaluation of flood hazard assessment, where the depth and frequency of the flooding were assumed to be the major determinant in estimating the total damage function. Different combinations of thematic maps among physiography, geology, land cover and elevation were evaluated for flood hazard maps and a best combination for the event of the 1988 flood was proposed. Finally, the flood hazard map for Bangladesh and a flood risk map for the administrative districts of Bangladesh were proposed. 相似文献
3.
In this paper a new procedure to derive flood hazard maps incorporating uncertainty concepts is presented. The layout of the procedure can be resumed as follows: (1) stochastic input of flood hydrograph modelled through a direct Monte-Carlo simulation based on flood recorded data. Generation of flood peaks and flow volumes has been obtained via copulas, which describe and model the correlation between these two variables independently of the marginal laws involved. The shape of hydrograph has been generated on the basis of a historical significant flood events, via cluster analysis; (2) modelling of flood propagation using a hyperbolic finite element model based on the DSV equations; (3) definition of global hazard indexes based on hydro-dynamic variables (i.e., water depth and flow velocities). The GLUE methodology has been applied in order to account for parameter uncertainty. The procedure has been tested on a flood prone area located in the southern part of Sicily, Italy. Three hazard maps have been obtained and then compared. 相似文献
4.
《国际泥沙研究》2017,(4)
Dike breaking is a disaster that could cause extensive damage. It could lead to flood flows outside the dike and induce water level fluctuations in the main channel. Numerical models are increasingly used to simulate flood flows due to dike-break, because direct observations from field surveys and physical models are rather limited. Existing knowledge concerning dam-break flows cannot be applied directly to dike-break flows because the effect of channel discharge cannot be neglected in the latter. In this study,physical experiments are done in a large laboratory flume to simulate the process of dike-break induced flood wave propagation in the floodplain and flow fluctuations in the main channel. The variations of water levels and velocities are measured and recorded using an array of pressure sensors and two acoustic Doppler velocimetry devices. A numerical model has been set up according to the experimental layout. The experiments have high repeatability and the numerical model predictions agree closely with the physical model data. The experimental results provide reliable information for improving the understanding of dike-break flow dynamics and for the verification of numerical models. 相似文献
5.
The seismic response of a dam is strongly influenced by its interaction with the water reservoir and the foundation. The hydrodynamic forces in the reservoir are in turn affected by radiation of waves towards infinity, wave absorption at the reservoir bottom, and cross-coupling between the foundation below the dam and the reservoir bottom. The fluid–foundation interaction effect, i.e. the wave absorption along the reservoir bottom, can be accounted for by using either an approximate one-dimensional (1D) wave propagation model or a rigorous analysis of interaction between the flexible soil along the base and the water. The rigorous approach requires enormous computational effort because of (a) cross-coupling between the foundation of the dam and the soil below the reservoir and (b) frequency dependence of the boundary condition along the fluid-foundation interface. The analysis can be simplified by ignoring the cross-coupling and by using the approximate 1D wave propagation model. The effects of each of these two simplifications on the accuracy and computational efficiency of the procedure used for the seismic response analysis of a dam are examined. Analytical results are presented for the complex frequency-response functions as well as the time histories of the response of Pine Flat dam to Taft and E1 Centro ground motions. 相似文献
6.
An event simulation approach to the assessment of flood level frequencies: risk maps for the Warsaw reach of the River Vistula 
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下载免费PDF全文 Flood risk assessment is customarily performed using a design flood. Observed past flows are used to derive a flood frequency curve which forms the basis for a construction of a design flood. The simulation of a distributed model with the 1‐in‐T year design flood as an input gives information on the possible inundation areas, which are used to derive flood risk maps. The procedure is usually performed in a deterministic fashion, and its extension to take into account the design flood‐and flow routing model uncertainties is computer time consuming. In this study we propose a different approach to flood risk assessment which consists of the direct simulation of a distributed flow routing model for an observed series of annual maximum flows and the derivation of maps of probability of inundation of the desired return period directly from the obtained simulations of water levels at the model cross sections through an application of the Flood Level Frequency Analysis. The hydraulic model and water level quantile uncertainties are jointly taken into account in the flood risk uncertainty evaluation using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach. An additional advantage of the proposed approach lies in smaller uncertainty of inundation predictions for long return periods compared to the standard approach. The approach is illustrated using a design flood level and a steady‐state solution of a hydraulic model to derive maps of inundation probabilities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
The main purpose of this work concerns the development and testing of an overland flow model based on the two‐dimensional fully dynamic shallow water equations. Three key aspects, fundamental to get accurate, efficient and robust computation of surface runoff at basin scale, are discussed by transferring the main findings obtained by the recent research on the topic of dam‐break wave and flood propagation in the context of rainfall–runoff modelling. In particular, attention is focused on the numerical flux and bottom slope source terms computation, on a numerical treatment of friction slope terms and on an algorithm for dealing with wetting/drying fronts. The performances of the numerical model have been preliminarily evaluated using experimental or ideal tests characterized by very critical conditions for the stability of a numerical model. Then, attention was focused on a real event occurred in a sub‐basin of Reno river in Italy to analyse the suitability of the model in simulating real flood situations. The numerical results highlight the good performances of the model in all the simulations discussed in the paper. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
Specific features of the spatial-temporal dynamics of LF disturbances of the Earth’s magnetosphere have been analyzed by the method of numerical simulation of magnetic hydrodynamic equations taking into account plasma temperature variations. The effects related to the appearance of long-living magnetospheric jumps of density and temperature, MHD wave scattering on such inhomogeneities, Alfvén wave reflection from the near-Earth region, and magnetospheric plasma heating as a result of dissipative processes at a repeated propagation of MHD waves between magnetically conjugate regions have been considered. The problems of conformity of the discrete mathematical model with continuous equations of magnetic hydrodynamics are discussed. 相似文献
9.
Flood control of the Yangtze River is an important part of China’s national water security.In July 2020,due to continuous heavy rainfall,the water levels along the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and major lakes constantly exceeded the warning levels,in which Taihu Lake exceeded its highest safety water level and some stations of Poyang Lake reached their highest water levels in its history.In August 2020,another huge flood occurred in the Minjiang River and the Jialing River in the upper Yangtze River,and some areas of Chongqing Municipality and other cities along the rivers were inundated,resulting in great pressure on flood control and high disaster losses.The 2020 Yangtze River flood has received extensive media coverage and raised concerns on the roles of the Three Gorges Dam and other large reservoirs in flood control.Here we analyze the changes in the pattern of the Yangtze River flood control by comparing the strategies to tackle the three heavy floods occurring in 1954,1998,and 2020.We propose that the overall strategy of the Yangtze River flood control in the new era should adhere to the principle of"Integration of storage and drainage over the entire Yangtze River Basin,with draining floods downstream as the first priority"by using both engineering and non-engineering measures.On the basis of embankments,the engineering measures should use the Three Gorges Dam and other large reservoirs as the major regulatory means,promote the construction of key flood detention areas,keep the floodways clear,and maintain the ecosystem services of wetlands and shoals.In terms of non-engineering measures,we should strengthen adaptive flood risk management under climate change,standardize the use of lands in flood detention areas,give space to floods,and promote the implementation of flood risk maps and flood insurance policies.The ultimate goal of this new flood control system is to enhance the adaptability to frequent floods and increase the resilience to extreme flood disasters. 相似文献
10.
Quantifying differences between reservoir inflows and dam site floods using frequency and risk analysis methods 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Reservoirs are the most important constructions for water resources management and flood control. Great concern has been paid to the effects of reservoir on downstream area and the differences between inflows and dam site floods due to the changes of upstream flow generation and concentration conditions after reservoir’s impoundment. These differences result in inconsistency between inflow quantiles and the reservoir design criteria derived by dam site flood series, which can be a potential risk and must be quantificationally evaluated. In this study, flood frequency analysis (FFA) and flood control risk analysis (FCRA) methods are used with the long reservoir inflow series derived from a multiple inputs and single output model and a copula-based inflow estimation model. The results of FFA and FCRA are compared and the influences on reservoir flood management are also discussed. The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China is selected as a case study. Results show that the differences between the TGR inflow and dam site floods are significant which result in changes on its flood control risk rates. The mean values of TGR’s annual maximum inflow peak discharge and 3 days flood volume have increased 5.58 and 3.85% than the dam site ones, while declined by 1.82 and 1.72% for the annual maximum 7 and 15 days flood volumes. The flood control risk rates of middle and small flood events are increased while extreme flood events are declined. It is shown that the TGR can satisfy the flood control task under current hydrologic regime and the results can offer references for better management of the TGR. 相似文献
11.
Optimization of the Sefid-Roud Dam desiltation process using a sophisticated one-dimensional numerical model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ali KHOSRONEJAD 《国际泥沙研究》2009,24(2):189-200
Although water and soil conservation activities reduce reservoir sedimentation, it is inevitable that reservoirs fed by rivers transporting high amounts of sediment will experience sedimentation. The Ghezel-Ozan and Shah-Roud rivers, which flow to the Sefld-Roud reservoir dam, are both highly sediment-laden and transport significant amounts of sediment in both bed load and suspended load forms to the reservoir. Hence, it seems that the only practical way to remove the sediment from the reservoir is to flush it out using the Chasse method. In the present paper, field measurements of Chasse operation characteristics taken in previous years are presented, and a numerical model that simulates this process is introduced. After calibrating the model using field measured data, the calculated results （for reservoir pressure flushing and released sediment volume） of the numerical model were compared with other measured data for the same Chasse operation and the results agree well. Finally, using the numerical simulation results, the best approaches to ensure highly effective flushing while conserving reservoir water are presented （at least for the Sefid-Roud dam）. The operation of the bottom outlet gates, the shape of the output hydrograph, and the reservoir water level variation during flushing were optimized. In addition, the numerical model and related parameters, which need to be calibrated, are discussed. 相似文献
12.
Marco GEMMER 《湖泊科学》2003,15(Z1):166-172
本文计算了洪湖东分洪区洪灾损失.洪水风险带以模拟的洪水淹没深度表示.这是洪水风险综合评价模型的基础.本项研究基于GIS为基础的水动力模型计算洪水淹没深度;并以GIS/RS为基础建立了单位洪水风险评价模型,计算不同洪水风险带的直接损失.研究表明,综合洪水风险评价模型在长江流域应用是可行的. 相似文献
13.
The cascading failure of multiple landslide dams can trigger a larger peak flood discharge than that caused by a single dam failure.Therefore,for an accurate numerical simulation,it is essential to elucidate the primary factors affecting the peak discharge of the flood caused by a cascading failure,which is the purpose of the current study.First,flume experiments were done on the cascading failure of two landslide dams under different upstream dam heights,downstream dam heights,and initial downstream reservoir water volumes.Then,the experimental results were reproduced using a numerical simulation model representing landslide dam erosion resulting from overtopping flow.Finally,the factors influencing the peak flood discharge caused by the cascading failure were analyzed using the numerical simulation model.Experimental results indicated that the inflow discharge into the downstream dam at the time when the downstream dam height began to rapidly erode was the main factor responsible for a cascading failure generating a larger peak flood discharge than that generated by a single dam failure.Furthermore,the results of a sensitivity analysis suggested that the upstream and downstream dam heights,initial water volume in the reservoir of the downstream dam,upstream and downstream dam crest lengths,and distance between two dams were among the most important factors in predicting the flood discharge caused by the cascading failure of multiple landslide dams. 相似文献
14.
基于Kelvin-Voigt黏弹性骨架的含非饱和流体孔隙介质BISQ模型(英文) 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
本文综合考虑了在波传播过程中孔隙介质的三种重要力学机制——"Biot流动机制一squirt流动机制-固体骨架黏弹性机制",借鉴等效介质思想,将含水饱和度引入波动力学控制方程,并考虑了不同波频率下孔隙流体分布模式对其等效体积模量的影响,给出了能处理含粘滞性非饱和流体孔隙介质中波传播问题的黏弹性Biot/squirt(BISQ)模型。推导了时间-空间域的波动力学方程组,由一组平面谐波解假设,给出频率-波数域黏弹性BISQ模型的相速度和衰减系数表达式。基于数值算例分析了含水饱和度、渗透率与频率对纵波速度和衰减的影响,并结合致密砂岩和碳酸盐岩的实测数据,对非饱和情况下的储层纵波速度进行了外推,碳酸盐岩储层中纵波速度对含气饱和度的敏感性明显低于砂岩储层。 相似文献
15.
为了解水库水体加、卸载及渗透过程中,库底岩石介质有效应力变化对弹性波速的影响,以及弹性波速变化与孔隙压力、有效应力变化之间的定量关系,以四川省紫坪铺水库为例,在前期已建立库区地质构造与水文地质结构模型,并推导出岩石介质变形与流体渗流耦合数学模型的基础上,进一步建立了有效应力对岩石弹性波速影响的数学模型,利用有限元方法定量计算了库底岩石介质的孔隙压力、附加有效应力和弹性波速的变化。结果表明:在水库水体加、卸载及渗透过程中,地下岩石介质弹性波速增量值的变化并不明显,最大变幅仅为±0.013km/s,变化范围主要集中在库底5km以上的局部区域;弹性波速增量值与附加有效应力变化同步,与水库水位变化形态相似;不同观测点弹性波速变化量的大小与埋藏位置、深度及附加有效应力的变化幅度有关,同一观测点,弹性纵波波速变化幅度大于弹性横波波速。文中数值模拟的结果与一些学者通过环境噪声方法获得的紫坪铺水库附近区域相对波速变化的反演结果在变化形态上大体一致,但变化幅度略有差异。 相似文献
16.
ＮＵＭＥＲＩＣＡＬＳＩＭＵＬＡＴＩＯＮＯＦＩＮＵＮＤＡＴＩＯＮＩＮＳＨＥＮＺＨＥＮＣＩＴＹＢＹＦＩＮＴＥＤＩＦＦＥＲＥＮＣＥＭＯＤＥＬＭＩＸＥＤＷＩＴＨ１ＤＡＮＤ２ＤＵＮＳＴＥＡＤＹＦＬＯＷ￥ＣＨＥＮＧＸｉａｏｔａｏ；ａｎｄＱＩＵＪｉｎｗｅｉ（Ｓｅｎ... 相似文献
17.
Suspended matter is an important indicator of water quality in freshwater systems. The flood‐induced turbidity current plays a dominant role in the seasonal dynamic of suspended matter in the Liuxihe Reservoir (23°45′50″N; 113°46′52″E), a large, stratified reservoir at the Tropic of Cancer in southern China. Field measurements show that loading and distribution of suspended matter in the reservoir differ in typical wet, dry and medium years, as a result of different discharge volumes and water level variation patterns. Using historical data and the practical demand for water supply and flood control, we generalized two feasible reservoir operational modes: flood impounding mode (drawing down the reservoir to a low level before flood events to impound inflow during the flooding season) and moderate level change mode (drawing down the reservoir to a moderate level before flood events, then keeping the level within the flood control level during runoff events). To examine the effects of different operational modes and outlet depths on the reservoir's flood‐induced turbidity current, a numerical simulation model was applied in three types of hydrological conditions. The results show that the mode with moderate drawdown and recharge processes can decrease loading of suspended matter in spring and promote turbidity current release during flood events, and upper withdrawal can improve the effects of turbid water release. We suggest that more attention should be focused on water quality management in the reservoir operation stage, severe artificial water level fluctuation being avoided and selective withdrawal becoming an optional management measure. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
Risk-based flood zoning employing expected annual damages: the Chenab River case study 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(8):1957-1966
Flooding proves to be the most devastating and annihilating natural hazard in Pakistan. Existing flood management strategies are riveted primarily to the structural measures that contribute limited loss reduction capability at the national level. Non-structural measures are not part of regular practices, as the adopted design standards, which are probabilistic in nature, are unable to assess their feasibilities. An improved risk-based assessment using expected annual damages (EAD) is introduced in this article for the evaluation of combined impacts. EAD treat the probabilistic nature of losses and provide an extended visualization of risk distributions in the form of damage curves and expected annual damages distribution maps. The Chenab River floodplain was selected to study the coalesced response of embankments and flood zoning, preliminary in economic terms. In this regard, the impacts of all likely floods are considered instead of the traditional focus on a single design flood. Damage curves and maps are compiled using estimated losses and probabilities of all floods. Flood zoning for agricultural land is performed. The results support choosing a multidirectional conjunctive approach that considers multiple measures to reduce flood losses. These results can be used as a vital input for the decision-making process. 相似文献
19.
Abstract In dealing with the transient sediment transport problem, the commonly used uncoupled model may not be suitable. The uncoupling technique is intended to separate the physical coupling phenomenon of water flow and sediment transport into two independent processes. Very often, as a result, severe numerical oscillation and solution instability problems appear in the simulation of transient sediment transport in alluvial channels. The coupled model, which simultaneously solves water flow continuity, momentum and sediment continuity equations, gives fewer numerical oscillation and solution instability problems. In this article, a coupled model using a matrix double-sweep method to solve the system of nonlinear algebraic equations has been developed. Several test runs designed on the basis of a schematic model have been performed. The numerical oscillation and solution instability problems have been investigated through a comparison with those obtained from an uncoupled model. Based on the proposed case studies, it can be concluded that, for transient bed evolution, the performance of the coupled model is much better than that of the uncoupled model. The numerical oscillation is reduced and the solution is more stable. This newly developed coupled model was also applied to the Cho-Shui River in Taiwan. This application study implied that the effect of the peaky flood wave propagation on the bed evolution could be simulated better by the coupled model than by the uncoupled model. 相似文献
20.
WANG Tiefeng Northeast Investigation Design Research Institute China ZHANG Zhi Northeast Investigation Design Research Institute China YI Yue Northeast Investigation. Design Research Institute China 《国际泥沙研究》1997,(3)
I.INTRODUCTIONThePtlmped-storagepoll,erprojectofPushiriverisconsistedofupperreservoir,lobal-erreset'oir.watertransmissionSystemandpotvergeneratingsystem.ThelowerreservoirIviththecatchmentbasinareaof1141kmZisthewatersupplierl-c'hichislocatedonthedownstreamofthePushiriverinthesouthernpactofNortheastChina.Theupperreservoirisabout300-400metershigherthanthelowerresen!oirattheleftsideoftheriverwithcatchmentbasinareaof1.12km2.Thecharacteristicsoftheprojectandreservoirareshottviintablel-l.Ino… 相似文献