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1.
In the boreal biome, fire is the major disturbance agent affecting ecosystem change, and fire dynamics will likely change in response to climatic warming. We modified a spatially explicit model of Alaskan subarctic treeline dynamics (ALFRESCO) to simulate boreal vegetation dynamics in interior Alaska. The model is used to investigate the role of black spruce ecosystems in the fire regime of interior Alaska boreal forest. Model simulations revealed that vegetation shifts caused substantial changes to the fire regime. The number of fires and the total area burned increased as black spruce forest became an increasingly dominant component of the landscape. The most significant impact of adding black spruce to the model was an increase in the frequency and magnitude of large-scale burning events (i.e., time steps in which total area burned far exceeded the normal distribution of area burned). Early successional deciduous forest vegetation burned more frequently when black spruce was added to the model, considerably decreasing the fire return interval of deciduous vegetation. Ecosystem flammability accounted for the majority of the differences in the distribution of the average area burned. These simulated vegetation effects and fire regime dynamics have important implications for global models of vegetation dynamics and potential biotic feedbacks to regional climate. 相似文献
2.
Modeling the Influence of Topographic Barriers on Treeline Advance at the Forest-Tundra Ecotone in Northwestern Alaska 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming has important implications to potential feedbacks to climate. The interactions between topography, climate, and disturbance could alter recruitment patterns to reduce or offset current predicted positive feedbacks to warming at high latitudes. In northern Alaska the Brooks Range poses a complex environmental and ecological barrier to species migration. We use a spatially explicit model (ALFRESCO) to simulate the transient response of subarctic vegetation to climatic warming in the Kobuk/Noatak River Valley (200 × 400 km) in northwest Alaska. The model simulations showed that a significantly warmer (+6 °C) summer climate would cause expansion of forest through the Brooks Range onto the currently treeless North Slope only after a period of 3000–4000 yr. Substantial forest establishment on the North Slope didnot occur until temperatures warmed 9 °C, and only following a 2000 yr time lag. The long time lags between change in climate and change in vegetation indicate current global change predictions greatly over-estimate the response of vegetation to a warming climate in Alaska. In all the simulations warming caused a steady increase in the proportion of early successional deciduous forest. This would reduce the magnitude of the predicted decrease in regional albedo and the positive feedback to climate warming. Simulation of spruce forest refugia on the North Slope showed forest could survive with only a 4 °C warming and would greatly reduce the time lag of forest expansion under warmer climates. Planting of spruce on the North Slope by humans could increase the likelihood of large-scale colonization of currently treeless tundra. Together, the long time lag and deciduous forest dominance would delay the predicted positive regional feedback of vegetation change to climatic warming. These simulated changes indicate the Brooks Range would significantly constrain regional forest expansion under a warming climate, with similar implications for other regions possessing major east-west oriented mountain ranges. 相似文献
3.
A gap model of environmental processes and vegetation patterns in boreal forests was used to examine the sensitivity of permafrost and permafrostfree forests in interior Alaska to air temperature and precipitation changes. These analyses indicated that in the uplands of interior Alaska, the effect of climatic warming on the ecology of boreal forests may not be so much a direct response to increased air temperature as it may be a response to the increased potential evapotranspiration demands that will accompany climatic warmings. On poorlydrained north slopes with permafrost, the drier forest floor reduced the flux of heat into the soil profile. This was offset by increased fire severity, which by removing greater amounts of the forest floor increased the depth of soil thawing and converted the cold black spruce forests to warmer mixed hardwood-spruce forests. On well-drained south slopes, the increased potential water loss reduced available soil moisture, converting these mesic sites to dry aspen forests, or if too dry to steppe-like vegetation. Increases in precipitation offset the effects of increased potential evapotranspiration demands and mitigated these forest changes. 相似文献
4.
基于卫星遥感的植被NDVI对气候变化响应的研究进展 总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9
回顾了以往植被对气候响应的有关研究,从此类研究常使用的数据、方法及获取的结论3个方面进行了分析,重点阐述了归一化植被指数（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI）对降水、温度和辐射等气候因子的响应特征,并探讨了未来的发展趋势。结果表明,植被NDVI对降水的显著响应往往出现在干旱半干旱地区和干湿季气候差异明显地区,且具有一定的滞后特征,滞后的时间尺度与局地条件关系密切;温度成为植被NDVI 控制因子的情况常出现在温带或寒温带地区,与对降水的滞后响应相比,植被对于温度的滞后响应并不是特别明显;辐射对于植被的主导影响主要出现在低纬度的部分区域、高云量区域和高纬度地区的特定时间段内。认为量化人类在植被对气候变化响应过程中的作用,全球变暖情形下植被对气候响应特征的深入分析,以及植被受气候影响的多尺度特征可能是以后此类研究的发展方向。 相似文献
5.
Pekka Niemelä F. Stuart Chapin III Kjell Danell John P. Bryant 《Climatic change》2001,48(2-3):427-440
Recent efforts to project vegetationresponses to climatic warming have emphasized thetight linkages between climate and vegetationdistribution. Here we provide several examplesindicating that the direct effects of climatic warmingon boreal vegetation can be qualitatively differentthan the indirect effects mediated by climaticresponses of herbivores. These herbivore-mediatedvegetation responses to climatic warming will likelyvary regionally. In southern Fennoscandia, we projectthat the climatically induced changes in animalpopulations should enhance the density of spruce atthe expense of pine and broadleafed trees. In northernFennoscandia we project reduced herbivory onbroadleafed trees and increased herbivory on pine,leading to an increase in broadleafed trees and spruceand a reduction in pine. Climatic warming in interiorAlaska may reduce herbivory on broadleafed trees andincrease herbivory on evergreen spruce, thusreinforcing the impact of increased fire frequency. 相似文献
6.
Changes in the duration of the photosynthetically active period strongly influence the changes in the carbon sequestration potential of boreal forests under climatic warming. In this paper, current theories on the effects of environmental variables such as spring air and soil temperature, photoperiod and chilling temperatures on the timing and initiation of photosynthesis in boreal deciduous and coniferous trees are discussed. Different dynamic phenological modeling approaches are reviewed, and model simulations are utilized to demonstrate model predictions under changing climatic conditions. A process-based forest ecosystem model is applied to estimate the relative importance of the duration of the photosynthetically active period on the amount of annual gross primary production and net primary production of boreal coniferous forests. All applied modeling approaches predict an increasing duration of the photosynthetically active period as a result of climatic warming. However, the magnitude of the response to increasing temperature varies between models and therefore affects the predictions of the changes in production. 相似文献
7.
General circulation models indicate substantial CO2 warming in high latitudes. In these regions, which include the boreal coniferous forests, the activity of ecosystems is largely controlled by temperature. The effective temperature sum (degree-days) is used in this study for describing the regional variability in the productivity of boreal ecosystems. Although the concept is simple, it takes into account two basic factors: the length of the growing season and the day-to-day level of activity of the ecosystem. This study examines which areas in the boreal coniferous forests would be most sensitive to a possible climatic warming. The data used in the study are for Finland.A regression is estimated between regional forest growth rate and effective temperature sum. A climatic warming is assumed and the corresponding growth response is calculated, using the regression, for northern and southern areas, and for maritime and continental areas. The response is expressed in terms of (i) absolute increase in growth (grams per m2 per year) and (ii) relative increase in growth. The results indicate that a given climatic warming would yield the greatest absolute increase in growth in warm (i.e. southern) and maritime parts of the biome. In terms of the relative growth response the sensitivity would increase northward and toward maritime areas. 相似文献
8.
Over the last century, the Arctic has warmed at twice the rate of the planet as a whole. Observational evidence indicates that this rapid warming is affecting the tundra and boreal forest biomes by changing their structure and geographic distribution. A global climate model (GCM) was used to explore the atmospheric response to boreal forest expansion by applying a one-grid cell shift of the forest into tundra. This subtle shift is meant to represent the expansion that would occur this century rather than more extreme scenarios predicted by dynamic vegetation models. Results show that this shift causes an average annual warming of 0.3 °C over the region because of a reduction in the surface albedo and an increase in net radiation. A warming of ~1.0 °C occurs in spring when the forest masks the higher albedo snow-covered surface and results in snowmelt and a reduction in cloud cover. Results fail to show a larger-scale dynamical response although some warming of the lower and mid troposphere occurs in July. No changes were found in the position or strength of the Arctic frontal zone as some studies have indicated will occur with a shift in the boreal forest-tundra boundary. These findings suggest that coupled model simulations that predict larger changes in vegetation distribution are likely overemphasizing the amount of Arctic warming that will occur this century. These findings also indicate that a realistic dynamical response to subtle land cover change might not be correctly simulated by GCMs run at coarse spatial resolutions. 相似文献
9.
The participation of different vegetation types within the physical climate system is investigated using a coupled atmosphere-biosphere model, CCM3-IBIS. We analyze the effects that six different vegetation biomes (tropical, boreal, and temperate forests, savanna, grassland and steppe, and shrubland/tundra) have on the climate through their role in modulating the biophysical exchanges of energy, water, and momentum between the land-surface and the atmosphere. Using CCM3-IBIS we completely remove the vegetation cover of a particular biome and compare it to a control simulation where the biome is present, thereby isolating the climatic effects of each biome. Results from the tropical and boreal forest removal simulations are in agreement with previous studies while the other simulations provide new evidence as to their contribution in forcing the climate. Removal of the temperate forest vegetation exhibits behavior characteristic of both the tropical and boreal simulations with cooling during winter and spring due to an increase in the surface albedo and warming during the summer caused by a reduction in latent cooling. Removal of the savanna vegetation exhibits behavior much like the tropical forest simulation while removal of the grassland and steppe vegetation has the largest effect over the central United States with warming and drying of the atmosphere in summer. The largest climatic effect of shrubland and tundra vegetation removal occurs in DJF in Australia and central Siberia and is due to reduced latent cooling and enhanced cold air advection, respectively. Our results show that removal of the boreal forest yields the largest temperature signal globally when either including or excluding the areas of forest removal. Globally, precipitation is most affected by removal of the savanna vegetation when including the areas of vegetation removal, while removal of the tropical forest most influences the global precipitation excluding the areas of vegetation removal. 相似文献
10.
Investigations of the ecological, atmospheric chemical, and climatic impacts of contemporary fires in tropical vegetation have received increasing attention during the last 10 years. Little is known, however, about the impacts of climate changes on tropical vegetation and wildland fires. This paper summarizes the main known interactions of fire, vegetation, and atmosphere. Examples of predictive models on the impacts of climate change on the boreal and temperate zones are given in order to highlight the possible impacts on the tropical forest and savanna biomes and to demonstrate parameters that need to be involved in this process. Response of tropical vegetation to fire is characterized by degradation towards xerophytic and pyrophytic plant communities dominated by grasses and fire-tolerant tree and bush invaders. The potential impacts of climate change on tropical fire regimes are investigated using a GISS GCM-based lightning and fire model and the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas-Induced Climate Change (MAGICC). 相似文献
11.
J. Wohlfahrt S. P. Harrison P. Braconnot C. D. Hewitt A. Kitoh U. Mikolajewicz B. L. Otto-Bliesner S. L. Weber 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(7-8):871-890
We have used the BIOME4 biogeography–biochemistry model and comparison with palaeovegetation data to evaluate the response of six ocean–atmosphere general circulation models to mid-Holocene changes in orbital forcing in the mid- to high-latitudes of the northern hemisphere. All the models produce: (a) a northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest, in response to simulated summer warming in high-latitudes. The northward shift is markedly asymmetric, with larger shifts in Eurasia than in North America; (b) an expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America and Eurasia, in response to increased temperatures during the growing season; (c) a northward expansion of temperate forests in eastern North America, in response to simulated winter warming. The northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest and the northward expansion of temperate forests in North America are supported by palaeovegetation data. The expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America is consistent with palaeodata, although the extent may be over-estimated. The simulated expansion of xerophytic vegetation in Eurasia is not supported by the data. Analysis of an asynchronous coupling of one model to an equilibrium-vegetation model suggests vegetation feedback exacerbates this mid-continental drying and produces conditions more unlike the observations. Not all features of the simulations are robust: some models produce winter warming over Europe while others produce winter cooling. As a result, some models show a northward shift of temperate forests (consistent with, though less marked than, the expansion shown by data) and others produce a reduction in temperate forests. Elucidation of the cause of such differences is a focus of the current phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. 相似文献
12.
The potential equilibrium response of Canadian vegetation under two doubled-CO2 climatic scenarios was investigated at three levels in the vegetation mosaic using the rule-based, Canadian Climate-Vegetation Model (CCVM) and climatic response surfaces. The climatic parameters employed as model drivers (i.e., degree-days, minimum temperature, snowpack, actual evapotranspiration, and soil moisture deficit) have a more direct influence on the distribution of vegetation than those commonly used in equilibrium models. Under both scenarios, CCVM predicted reductions in the extent of the tundra and subarctic woodland formations, a northward shift and some expansion in the distributions of boreal and the temperate forest, and an expansion of the dry woodland and prairie formations that was especially pronounced under one of the scenarios. Results of the response surface analysis suggest the potential for significant changes in the probability of dominance for eight boreal tree species. A dissimilarity coefficient was used to identify forest-types under the future climatic scenarios that were analogous to boreal forest-types derived from cluster analysis of the current probabilities of species dominance. All of the current forest-types persisted under the doubled-CO2 scenarios, but no-analog areas were also identified within which an empirically derived threshold of the distance coefficient was exceeded. Maps showing the highest level in the vegetation hierarchy where change was predicted suggest the relative impact of the response under the two climatic scenarios. 相似文献
13.
Determining Effects of Area Burned and Fire Severity on Carbon Cycling and Emissions in Siberia 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
Susan G. Conard Anatoly I. Sukhinin Brian J. Stocks Donald R. Cahoon Eduard P. Davidenko Galina A. Ivanova 《Climatic change》2002,55(1-2):197-211
The Russian boreal forest contains about 25% of the global terrestrial biomass, and even a higher percentage of the carbon stored in litter and soils. Fire burns large areas annually, much of it in low-severity surface fires – but data on fire area and impacts or extent of varying fire severity are poor. Changes in land use, cover, and disturbance patterns such as those predicted by global climate change models, have the potential to greatly alter current fire regimes in boreal forests and to significantly impact global carbon budgets. The extent and global importance of fires in the boreal zone have often been greatly underestimated. For the 1998 fire season we estimate from remote sensing data that about 13.3 million ha burned in Siberia. This is about 5 times higher than estimates from the Russian Aerial Forest Protection Service (Avialesookhrana) for the same period. We estimate that fires in the Russian boreal forest in 1998 constituted some 14–20% of average annual global carbon emissions from forest fires. Average annual emissions from boreal zone forests may be equivalent to 23–39% of regional fossil fuel emissions in Canada and Russia, respectively. But the lack of accurate data and models introduces large potential errors into these estimates. Improved monitoring and understanding of the landscape extent and severity of fires and effects of fire on carbon storage, air chemistry, vegetation dynamics and structure, and forest health and productivity are essential to provide inputs into global and regional models of carbon cycling and atmospheric chemistry. 相似文献
14.
Philip W. Mote Edward A. Parson Alan F. Hamlet William S. Keeton Dennis Lettenmaier Nathan Mantua Edward L. Miles David W. Peterson David L. Peterson Richard Slaughter Amy K. Snover 《Climatic change》2003,61(1-2):45-88
The impacts of year-to-year and decade-to-decade climatic variations on some of the Pacific Northwest's key natural resources can be quantified to estimate sensitivity to regional climatic changes expected as part of anthropogenic global climatic change. Warmer, drier years, often associated with El Niño events and/or the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, tend to be associated with below-average snowpack, streamflow, and flood risk, below-average salmon survival, below-average forest growth, and above-average risk of forest fire. During the 20th century, the region experienced a warming of 0.8 °C. Using output from eight climate models, we project a further warming of 0.5–2.5 °C (central estimate 1.5 °C) by the 2020s, 1.5–3.2°C (2.3 °C) by the 2040s, and an increase in precipitation except in summer. The foremost impact of a warming climate will be the reduction of regional snowpack, which presently supplies water for ecosystems and human uses during the dry summers. Our understanding of past climate also illustrates the responses of human management systems to climatic stresses, and suggests that a warming of the rate projected would pose significant challenges to the management of natural resources. Resource managers and planners currently have few plans for adapting to or mitigating the ecological and economic effects of climatic change. 相似文献
15.
Flavio Justino A. S. de Mélo A. Setzer R. Sismanoglu G. C. Sediyama G. A. Ribeiro J. P. Machado A. Sterl 《Climatic change》2011,106(2):285-302
Vegetation fires are the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere. The reduction of the climatic
impact of these emissions is related to the vegetation susceptibility to fire (fire risk), as well as to the understanding
of possible implications of changes in atmospheric circulation on fire risk in the near-future. This study evaluates the environmental
susceptibility to fire occurrence based on a Potential Fire Index (PFI). Two climate simulations from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate
model have been used to calculate the PFI: present day (1980–2000) and an experiment for the end of the twenty-first century
(2080–2100). The results indicate that the proposed PFI methodology could properly reproduce the areas with the highest fire
incidence under present conditions. Moreover, it was found that under greenhouse warming conditions the PFI foresees an increase
in the fire risk area, particularly for the Amazon region. We concluded, furthermore, that changes of vegetation predicted
to occur in the future lead to substantial modifications in the magnitude of the PFI, and may potentially extend the length
of the fire season due to induced longer drought periods as compared to current conditions. 相似文献
16.
E. Tuenter S. L. Weber F. J. Hilgen L. J. Lourens A. Ganopolski 《Climate Dynamics》2005,24(2-3):279-295
Long (130,000 years) transient simulations with a coupled model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2) have been performed. The main objective of this study is to examine leads and lags in the response to the climate system to separate obliquity and precession-induced insolation changes. Focus is on the role of internal feedbacks in the coupled atmosphere/ocean/sea-ice/vegetation system. No interactive ice sheets were used. The results show that leads and lags occur in response to the African/Asian monsoon, temperatures at high latitudes and the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. For the monsoon, leads and lags of the monthly precipitation with respect to the precession parameter were found, which are strongly modified by vegetation. In contrast, no lag was observed for the annual precipitation. At high latitudes during late winter/early spring a vegetation-induced lag with respect to the precession parameter was found in surface air temperatures. Again, no annual lag was detected. The lag in the monthly surface air temperatures induces a lag in the annual overturning in the Atlantic Ocean by changing the strength of the deep convection. The lag is several thousand years. The obliquity-related forcing does not give rise to lags in the climate system. We conclude that lags in monthly climatic variables, which are due to vegetation feedbacks, can result in an annual lag when a climatic process (like deep water formation) acts as a filter for certain months. 相似文献
17.
18.
The effects of terrestrial ecosystems on the climate system have received most attention in the tropics, where extensive deforestation and burning has altered atmospheric chemistry and land surface climatology. In this paper we examine the biophysical and biogeochemical effects of boreal forest and tundra ecosystems on atmospheric processes. Boreal forests and tundra have an important role in the global budgets of atmospheric CO2 and CH4. However, these biogeochemical interactions are climatically important only at long temporal scales, when terrestrial vegetation undergoes large geographic redistribution in response to climate change. In contrast, by masking the high albedo of snow and through the partitioning of net radiation into sensible and latent heat, boreal forests have a significant impact on the seasonal and annual climatology of much of the Northern Hemisphere. Experiments with the LSX land surface model and the GENESIS climate model show that the boreal forest decreases land surface albedo in the winter, warms surface air temperatures at all times of the year, and increases latent heat flux and atmospheric moisture at all times of the year compared to simulations in which the boreal forest is replaced with bare ground or tundra. These effects are greatest in arctic and sub-arctic regions, but extend to the tropics. This paper shows that land-atmosphere interactions are especially important in arctic and sub-arctic regions, resulting in a coupled system in which the geographic distribution of vegetation affects climate and vice versa. This coupling is most important over long time periods, when changes in the abundance and distribution of boreal forest and tundra ecosystems in response to climatic change influence climate through their carbon storage, albedo, and hydrologic feedbacks. 相似文献
19.
对植被的动态监测可以从一定程度上反映气候变化趋势。该文利用2000—2005年MODIS NDVI数据对锡林郭勒盟典型草原植被变化进行动态监测,在此基础上,以降水量、水汽压、平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、日照时数作为气候指标,分析锡林郭勒盟典型草原和荒漠草原MODIS NDVI与同期及前期气候因子的相关性,探讨草原植被变化的气候驱动因子。结果表明:2000—2005年锡林郭勒盟植被改善面积大于退化面积,植被退化面积最大的区域为荒漠草原,占全盟面积的12.84%,植被改善面积最大的区域为典型草原,占全盟面积29.09%。4类草原改善趋势由强到弱的顺序为草甸草原、典型草原、沙地草原、荒漠草原。对于典型草原,其NDVI与最高气温关系最密切,其次为水汽压;对于荒漠草原,其NDVI与最高气温关系最为密切,其次为最低气温。此外,NDVI对气候因子的响应表现出明显的时滞效应。 相似文献
20.
WANG Futang 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2001,15(4):498-508
Increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will strengthen the naturalgreenhouse effect,which could lead to global climate warming and more other changes.China is alargely agricultural country with a large size of population and the relative shortages of farminglands and water resources,thus increasing the importance of climate warming for national economydevelopment.Therefore,Chinese government and scientists have paid great attention to theimpact-assessment of climate warming on national economy in China,especially during the past 10years.This presentation will briefly describe some major issues of climate warming impact researchon national vegetation,agriculture,forest,water resources,energy use and regional sea level forChina,etc.As a result,all climate change scenarios derived by GCMs suggest a substantial change in thecharacteristic natural vegetation types.It is also shown that comparing with the distributionsimulated under the normal time period 1951—1980 as the present climate,by 2050 large changesin cropping systems would occur almost everywhere in China.Climate warming would lead toincrease cropping diversification and multiplication.Unfortunately,the possible net balancebetween precipitation and evapotranspiration would be negative and it would lead to reduce thegrain production in China significantly due to enhanced moisture stress in soil.The most evidentinfluence of climate warming on water resources would happen in Huanghe-Huaihe-Haihe Basin andthe water supply-demand deficit would be substantially enhanced in this area.And also,a warmerclimate for China will alter the energy requirement for domestic heating and cooling,that is,reduce energy use for heating in northern China and increase energy consumption for cooling insouthern China. 相似文献