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1.
The structure parameters of temperature and humidity are important in scintillometry as they determine the structure parameter of the refractive index of air, the primary atmospheric variable obtained with scintillometers. In this study, we investigate the variability of the logarithm of the Monin-Obukhov-scaled structure parameters (denoted as $\log ({\widetilde{C_{s}^2}_{\mathrm {}}})$ ) of temperature and humidity. We use observations from eddy-covariance systems operated at three heights (2.5, 50, and 90 m) within the atmospheric surface layer under unstable conditions. The variability of $\log ({\widetilde{C_{s}^2}_{\mathrm {}}})$ depends on instability and on the size of the averaging window over which $\log ({\widetilde{C_{s}^2}_{\mathrm {}}})$ is calculated. If instability increases, differences in $\log ({\widetilde{C_{s}^2}_{\mathrm {}}})$ between upward motions (large $C_{s}^2$ ) and downward motions (small $C_{s}^2$ ) increase. The differences are, however, not sufficiently large to result in a bimodal probability density function. If the averaging window size increases, the variances of $\log ({\widetilde{C_{s}^2}_{\mathrm {}}})$ decrease. A linear regression of the variances of $\log ({\widetilde{C_{s}^2}_{\mathrm {}}})$ versus the averaging window size for various stability classes shows an increase of both the offset and slope (in absolute sense) with increasing instability. For temperature, data from the three heights show comparable results. For humidity, in contrast, the offset and slope are larger at 50 and 90 m than at 2.5 m. In the end we discuss how these findings could be used to assess whether observed differences in $C_{s}^2$ along a scintillometer path or aircraft flight leg are just within the range of local variability in $C_{s}^2$ or could be attributed to surface heterogeneity. This is important for the interpretation of data measured above a heterogeneous surface.  相似文献   

2.
Climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration are intimately coupled in the Earth system: CO2 influences climate through the greenhouse effect, but climate also affects CO2 through its impact on the amount of carbon stored on land and in the ocean. The change in atmospheric CO2 as a response to a change in temperature ( $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ ) is a useful measure to quantify the feedback between the carbon cycle and climate. Using an ensemble of experiments with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity we show a pronounced time-scale dependence of $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ . A maximum is found on centennial scales with $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ values for the model ensemble in the range 5–12 ppm °C?1, while lower values are found on shorter and longer time scales. These results are consistent with estimates derived from past observations. Up to centennial scales, the land carbon response to climate dominates the CO2 signal in the atmosphere, while on longer time scales the ocean becomes important and eventually dominates on multi-millennial scales. In addition to the time-scale dependence, modeled $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ show a distinct dependence on the initial state of the system. In particular, on centennial time-scales, high $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ values are correlated with high initial land carbon content. A similar relation holds also for the CMIP5 models, although for $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ computed from a very different experimental setup. The emergence of common patterns like this could prove to usefully constrain the climate–carbon cycle feedback.  相似文献   

3.
Mountain-top observations of greenhouse gas mixing ratios may be an alternative to tall-tower measurements for regional scale source and sink estimation. To investigate the equivalence or limitations of a mountain-top site as compared to a tall-tower site, we used the unique opportunity of comparing in situ measurements of methane (\(\hbox {CH}_{4}\)) and carbon dioxide (\(\hbox {CO}_{2}\)) mixing ratios at a mountain top (986 m above sea level, a.s.l.) with measurements from a nearby (distance 28.4 km) tall tower, sampled at almost the same elevation (1009 m a.s.l.). Special attention was given to, (i) how local wind statistics and greenhouse gas sources and sinks at the mountain top influence the observations, and (ii) whether mountain-top observations can be used as for those from a tall tower for constraining regional greenhouse gas emissions. Wind statistics at the mountain-top site are clearly more influenced by local flow systems than those at the tall-tower site. Differences in temporal patterns of the greenhouse gas mixing ratios observed at the two sites are mostly related to the influence of local sources and sinks at the mountain-top site. Major influences of local sources can be removed by applying a statistical filter (\(5{\mathrm{th}}\) percentile) or a filter that removes periods with unfavourable flow conditions. In the best case, the bias in mixing ratios between the mountain-top and the tall-tower sites after the application of the wind filter was \({-}0.0005\pm 0.0010\) ppm for methane (September, 0000–0400 UTC) and \(0.11\pm 0.18\) ppm for \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) (February, 1200–1600 UTC). Temporal fluctuations of atmospheric \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) and \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) mixing ratios at both stations also showed good agreement (apart from \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) during summertime) as determined by moving bi-weekly Pearson correlation coefficients (up to 0.96 for \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) and 0.97 for \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\)). When only comparing mixing ratios minimally influenced by local sources (low bias and high correlation coefficients), our measurements indicate that mountain-top observations are comparable to tall-tower observations.  相似文献   

4.
Atmospheric stabilization and the timing of carbon mitigation   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations below a pre-industrial doubling (~550 ppm) is a commonly cited target in climate policy assessment. When the rate at which future emissions can fall is assumed to be fixed, the peak atmospheric concentration – or the stabilization “frontier” – is an increasing and convex function of the length of postponement. Here we find that a decline in emissions of 1% year?1 beginning today would place the frontier near 475 ppm and that when mitigation is postponed, options disappear (on average) at the rate of ~9 ppm year?1, meaning that delays of more than a decade will likely preclude stabilization below a doubling. When constraints on the future decline rate of emissions are relaxed, a particular atmospheric target can be realized in many ways, with scenarios that allow longer postponement of emissions reductions requiring greater increases in the intensity of future mitigation. However, the marginal rate of substitution between future mitigation and present delay becomes prohibitively large when the balance is shifted too far toward the future, meaning that some amount of postponement cannot be fully offset by simply increasing the intensity of future mitigation. Consequently, these results suggest that a practical transition path to a given stabilization target in the most commonly cited range can allow, at most, one or two decades of delay.  相似文献   

5.
S. Lovejoy 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(9-10):2339-2351
Although current global warming may have a large anthropogenic component, its quantification relies primarily on complex General Circulation Models (GCM’s) assumptions and codes; it is desirable to complement this with empirically based methodologies. Previous attempts to use the recent climate record have concentrated on “fingerprinting” or otherwise comparing the record with GCM outputs. By using CO2 radiative forcings as a linear surrogate for all anthropogenic effects we estimate the total anthropogenic warming and (effective) climate sensitivity finding: ΔT anth  = 0.87 ± 0.11 K, $\uplambda_{{2{\text{x}}{\text{CO}}_{2} ,{\text{eff}}}} = 3.08 \pm 0.58\,{\text{K}}$ . These are close the IPPC AR5 values ΔT anth  = 0.85 ± 0.20 K and $\uplambda_{{2{\text{x}}{\text{CO}}_{2} }} = 1.5\!-\!4.5\,{\text{K}}$ (equilibrium) climate sensitivity and are independent of GCM models, radiative transfer calculations and emission histories. We statistically formulate the hypothesis of warming through natural variability by using centennial scale probabilities of natural fluctuations estimated using scaling, fluctuation analysis on multiproxy data. We take into account two nonclassical statistical features—long range statistical dependencies and “fat tailed” probability distributions (both of which greatly amplify the probability of extremes). Even in the most unfavourable cases, we may reject the natural variability hypothesis at confidence levels >99 %.  相似文献   

6.
The characteristics of the temporal and height variations of the temperature structure parameter $C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ in strongly convective situations derived from the sodar echo-signal intensity measurements were analyzed for the first 100 m. It was corroborated that the probability density function (pdf) of the logarithm of $C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ in the lower convective boundary layer is markedly non-Gaussian, whereas turbulence theory predicts it to be normal. It was also corroborated that the sum of two weighted Gaussians, which characterize the statistics of $C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ within convective plumes and in their environment and the probability of plume occurrence, well approximates the observed pdfs. It was shown that the height behaviour of the arithmetic mean of $ C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ (both total and within plumes) follows well a power law $C_\mathrm{T}^{2} (z) \sim z^{-q}$ with the exponent $q$ close to the theoretically predicted value of 4/3. But for the geometrical means of $C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ (both total and within the plumes), $q$ is close to 1. The difference between arithmetically and geometrically averaged $C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ profiles was analyzed. The vertical profiles of the standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis of $\hbox {ln}C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ pdfs were analyzed to show their steady behaviour with height. The standard deviations of the logarithm of $C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ within the plumes and between them are similar and are 1.5 times less than the total standard deviation. The estimate of the variability index $F_\mathrm{T}$ and its height behaviour were obtained, which can be useful to validate some theoretical and modelling predictions. The vertical profiles of the skewness and kurtosis show the negative asymmetry of pdfs and their flatness, respectively. The spectra of variations in $\hbox {ln}C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ are shown to be satisfactorily fitted by the power law $f^{-\gamma } $ in the frequency range 0.02 and 0.2 Hz, with the average exponent $\approx $ 1.27  $\pm $  0.22.  相似文献   

7.
Vertical mixing of the nocturnal stable boundary layer (SBL) over a complex land surface is investigated for a range of stabilities, using a decoupling index ( $0 < D_{rb} < 1$ ) based on the 2–50 m bulk gradient of the ubiquitous natural trace gas radon-222. The relationship between $D_{rb}$ and the bulk Richardson number ( $R_{ib}$ ) exhibits three broad regions: (1) a well-mixed region ( $D_{rb} \approx 0.05$ ) in weakly stable conditions ( $R_{ib} < 0.03$ ); (2) a steeply increasing region ( $0.05 < D_{rb} < 0.9$ ) for “transitional” stabilities ( $0.03 < R_{ib} < 1$ ); and (3) a decoupled region ( $D_{rb} \approx 0.9$ –1.0) in very stable conditions ( $R_{ib} > 1$ ). $D_{rb}$ exhibits a large variability within individual $R_{ib}$ bins, however, due to a range of competing processes influencing bulk mixing under different conditions. To explore these processes in $R_{ib}$ – $D_{rb}$ space, we perform a bivariate analysis of the bulk thermodynamic gradients, various indicators of external influences, and key turbulence quantities at 10 and 50 m. Strong and consistent patterns are found, and five distinct regions in $R_{ib}$ – $D_{rb}$ space are identified and associated with archetypal stable boundary-layer regimes. Results demonstrate that the introduction of a scalar decoupling index yields valuable information about turbulent mixing in the SBL that cannot be gained directly from a single bulk thermodynamic stability parameter. A significant part of the high variability observed in turbulence statistics during very stable conditions is attributable to changes in the degree of decoupling of the SBL from the residual layer above. When examined in $R_{ib}$ – $D_{rb}$ space, it is seen that very different turbulence regimes can occur for the same value of $R_{ib}$ , depending on the particular combination of values for the bulk temperature gradient and wind shear, together with external factors. Extremely low turbulent variances and fluxes are found at 50 m height when $R_{ib} > 1$ and $D_{rb} \approx 1$ (fully decoupled). These “quiescent” cases tend to occur when geostrophic forcing is very weak and subsidence is present, but are not associated with the largest bulk temperature gradients. Humidity and net radiation data indicate the presence of low cloud, patchy fog or dew, any of which may aid decoupling in these cases by preventing temperature gradients from increasing sufficiently to favour gravity wave activity. The largest temperature gradients in our dataset are actually associated with smaller values of the decoupling index ( $D_{rb} < 0.7$ ), indicating the presence of mixing. Strong evidence is seen from enhanced turbulence levels, fluxes and submeso activity at 50 m, as well as high temperature variances and heat flux intermittencies at 10 m, suggesting this region of the $R_{ib}$ – $D_{rb}$ distribution can be identified as a top-down mixing regime. This may indicate an important role for gravity waves and other wave-like phenomena in providing the energy required for sporadic mixing at this complex terrain site.  相似文献   

8.
Measurements of vertical fluxes and concentration differences above a spring wheat crop (height $h=0.9$ – $0.95$  m, row spacing 0.25 m, displacement height $d=0.5$ – $0.6$  m) were analyzed to determine the Schmidt numbers for water vapour ( $S^\mathrm{v}$ ) and carbon dioxide ( $S^\mathrm{c}$ ) based on concentration differences between intakes 2.55 and 3.54 m above the ground. During nearly-neutral stratification $S^\mathrm{v}(0) = 0.68 \pm 0.1$ while $S^\mathrm{c} = 0.78 \pm 0.2$ , implying that the roughness sublayer extended above $2.5 h$ .  相似文献   

9.
In October 2012 Hurricane Sandy devastated New York City and its vicinity caused mainly by the storm surge, which is the water height above normal astronomical tide level. The meteorological conditions were as follows: minimum central pressure, 962 hPa, highest sustained wind speed 27.1 m s $^{-1}$ ? 1 and maximum gust 37.8 m s $^{-1}$ ? 1 . The peak storm surge was at 3.9 m and the peak storm tide at 4.4 m (which is referenced above mean lower low water). The wind-stress tide relation shows that $S=K\,V^{2}$ S = K V 2 , where $S$ S is the storm surge, $V$ V is the wind speed and $K$ K is the coefficient. It is found that with $S$ S in units of m, and $V$ V in  m s $^{-1}$ ? 1 , $K = 0.0051$ K = 0.0051 with $R^{2}= 0.91$ R 2 = 0.91 ( $R$ R is the correlation coefficient) indicating that 91 % of the total variation of the storm surge can be explained by variations in the wind stress, which is proportional to $V^{2}$ V 2 . Similar results were obtained during Hurricane Irene in 2011, which also affected the New York area. Therefore, this simple wind stress-tide relation should be useful in coastal engineering, urban planning, and emergency management.  相似文献   

10.
A dataset obtained using a wind-profile radar located at the Yangtze River Delta in China ( $31.14^{\circ }$ N, $121.81^{\circ }$ E) in 2009 was used to investigate the characteristics and evolution of low-level jets (LLJs) along the east China coast. The study investigated the daily and seasonal structures of LLJs as well as several possible causes. A total of 1,407 1-h LLJ periods were detected based on an adaptive definition that enabled determination of four LLJ categories. The majority (77 %) of LLJs were found to have speeds $<$ 14.0 m s $^{-1}$ (maximum of 34.6 m s $^{-1})$ and occur at an average altitude below 600 m (76 % of the observed LLJs). The dominant direction of the LLJs was from the south-south-west, which accounted for nearly 32 %, with the second most common wind direction ranging from $040^{\circ }$ to $100^{\circ }$ , albeit with a number of stronger LLJs from the west-south-west. A comparison of LLJs and South-west Jets revealed that the frequencies of occurrence in summer are totally different. Results also revealed that in spring and summer, most LLJs originate from the south-south-west, whereas in autumn and winter, north-east is the dominant direction of origin. The peak heights of LLJs tended to be higher in winter than in other seasons. The horizontal wind speed and peak height of the LLJs displayed pronounced diurnal cycles. The Hilbert–Huang transform technique was applied to demonstrate that the intrinsic mode functions with a cycle of nearly 23 h at levels below 800 m, and the instantaneous amplitudes of inertial events (0.0417–0.0476 h $^{-1}$ frequencies) have large values at 300–600 m. The variations in the occurrences of LLJs suggested connections between the formation mechanisms of LLJs and the South-west Jet stream, steady occupation of synoptic-scale pressure system, and land–sea temperature contrasts.  相似文献   

11.
Turbulent Transport of Momentum and Scalars Above an Urban Canopy   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  
Turbulent transport of momentum and scalars over an urban canopy is investigated using the quadrant analysis technique. High-frequency measurements are available at three levels above the urban canopy (47, 140 and 280 m). The characteristics of coherent ejection–sweep motions (flux contributions and time fractions) at the three levels are analyzed, particularly focusing on the difference between ejections and sweeps, the dissimilarity between momentum and scalars, and the dissimilarity between the different scalars (i.e., temperature, water vapour and $\hbox {CO}_{2})$ . It is found that ejections dominate momentum and scalar transfer at all three levels under unstable conditions, while sweeps are the dominant eddy motions for transporting momentum and scalars in the urban roughness sublayer under neutral and stable conditions. The flux contributions and time fractions of ejections and sweeps can be adequately captured by assuming a Gaussian joint probability density function for flow variables. However, the inequality of flux contributions from ejections and sweeps is more accurately reproduced by the third-order cumulant expansion method (CEM). The incomplete cumulant expansion method (ICEM) also works well except for $\hbox {CO}_{2}$ at 47 m where the skewness of $\hbox {CO}_{2}$ fluctuations is significantly larger than that for vertical velocity. The dissimilarity between momentum and scalar transfers is linked to the dissimilarity in the characteristics of ejection–sweep motions and is further quantified by measures of transport efficiencies. Atmospheric stability is the controlling factor for the transport efficiencies of momentum and heat, and fitted functions from the literature describe their behaviour fairly accurately. However, transport efficiencies of water vapour and $\hbox {CO}_{2}$ are less affected by the atmospheric stability. The dissimilarity among the three scalars examined in this study is linked to the active role of temperature and to the surface heterogeneity effect.  相似文献   

12.
Methane ( ${\mathrm {CH}}_{4}$ ) fluxes observed with the eddy-covariance technique using an open-path ${\mathrm {CH}}_{4}$ analyzer and a closed-path ${\mathrm {CH}}_{4}$ analyzer in a rice paddy field were evaluated with an emphasis on the flux correction methodology. A comparison of the fluxes obtained by the analyzers revealed that both the open-path and closed-path techniques were reliable, provided that appropriate corrections were applied. For the open-path approach, the influence of fluctuations in air density and the line shape variation in laser absorption spectroscopy (hereafter, spectroscopic effect) was significant, and the relative importance of these corrections would increase when observing small ${\mathrm {CH}}_{4}$ fluxes. A new procedure proposed by Li-Cor Inc. enabled us to accurately adjust for these effects. The high-frequency loss of the open-path ${\mathrm {CH}}_{4}$ analyzer was relatively large (11 % of the uncorrected covariance) at an observation height of 2.5 m above the canopy owing to its longer physical path length, and this correction should be carefully applied before correcting for the influence of fluctuations in air density and the spectroscopic effect. Uncorrected ${\mathrm {CH}}_{4}$ fluxes observed with the closed-path analyzer were substantially underestimated (37 %) due to high-frequency loss because an undersized pump was used in the observation. Both the bandpass and transfer function approaches successfully corrected this flux loss. Careful determination of the bandpass frequency range or the transfer function and the cospectral model is required for the accurate calculation of ${\mathrm {CH}}_{4}$ fluxes with the closed-path technique.  相似文献   

13.
The current outbreak of mountain pine beetle (MPB) that started in the late 1990s in British Columbia, Canada, is the largest ever recorded in the north American native habitat of the beetle. The killing of trees is expected to change the vertical distribution of net radiation ( $Q^*$ Q ? ) and the partitioning of latent ( $Q_\mathrm{E}$ Q E ) and sensible ( $Q_\mathrm{H}$ Q H ) heat fluxes in the different layers of an attacked forest canopy. During an intensive observation period in the summer of 2010, eddy-covariance flux and radiation measurements were made at seven heights from ground level up to 1.34 times the canopy height in an MPB-attacked open-canopy forest stand $(\hbox {leaf area index} = 0.55~\mathrm{{m}}^{2}\ \mathrm{{m}}^{-2})$ ( leaf area index = 0.55 m 2 m - 2 ) in the interior of British Columbia, Canada. The lodgepole pine dominated stand with a rich secondary structure (trees and understorey not killed by the beetle) was first attacked by the MPB in 2003 and received no management. In this study, the vertical distribution of the energy balance components and their sources and sinks were analyzed and energy balance closure (EBC) was determined for various levels within the canopy. The low stand density resulted in approximately 60 % of the shortwave irradiance and 50 % of the daily total $Q^*$ Q ? reaching the ground. Flux divergence calculations indicated relatively strong sources of latent heat at the ground and where the secondary structure was located. Only very weak sources of latent heat were found in the upper part of the canopy, which was mainly occupied by dead lodgepole pine trees. $Q_\mathrm{H}$ Q H was the dominant term throughout the canopy, and the Bowen ratio ( $Q_\mathrm{H}/Q_\mathrm{E}$ Q H / Q E ) increased with height in the canopy. Soil heat flux ( $Q_\mathrm{G}$ Q G ) accounted for approximately 4 % of $Q^*$ Q ? . Sensible heat storage in the air ( $\Delta Q_\mathrm{S,H}$ Δ Q S , H ) was the largest of the energy balance storage components in the upper canopy during daytime, while in the lower canopy sensible heat storage in the boles ( $\Delta Q_\mathrm{S,B}$ Δ Q S , B ) and biochemical energy storage ( $\Delta Q_\mathrm{S,C}$ Δ Q S , C ) were the largest terms. $\Delta Q_\mathrm{S,H}$ Δ Q S , H was almost constant from the bottom to above the canopy. $\Delta Q_\mathrm{S,C}$ Δ Q S , C , $\Delta Q_\mathrm{S,B}$ Δ Q S , B and latent heat storage in the air ( $\Delta Q_\mathrm{S,E}$ Δ Q S , E ) varied more than $\Delta Q_\mathrm{S,H}$ Δ Q S , H throughout the canopy. During daytime, energy balance closure was high in and above the upper canopy, and in the lowest canopy level. However, where the secondary structure was most abundant, ${\textit{EBC}} \le 66\,\%$ EBC ≤ 66 % . During nighttime, the storage terms together with $Q_\mathrm{G}$ Q G made up the largest part of the energy balance, while $Q_\mathrm{H}$ Q H and $Q_\mathrm{E}$ Q E were relatively small. These radiation and energy balance measurements in an insect-attacked forest highlight the role of secondary structure in the recovery of attacked stands.  相似文献   

14.
In studies of lake–atmosphere interactions, the fluxes of momentum, water vapour and sensible heat are often parametrized as being proportional to the differences in wind, humidity and air temperature between the water surface and a reference height above the surface. Here, the proportionality via transfer coefficients in these relationships was investigated with the eddy-covariance method at three sites within an eddy-covariance mesonet across Lake Taihu, China. The results indicate that the transfer coefficients decreased with increasing wind speed for weak winds and approached constant values for strong winds. The presence of submerged macrophytes reduced the momentum transfer (drag) coefficient significantly. At the two sites free of submerged macrophytes, the 10-m drag coefficients under neutral stability were 1.8 $(\pm \,0.4) \times \,10^{-3}$ ( ± 0.4 ) × 10 ? 3 and $1.7\,(\pm \,0.3) \times \,10^{-3 }$ 1.7 ( ± 0.3 ) × 10 ? 3 at the wind speed of $9\,\text{ m } \text{ s }^{-1}$ 9 m s ? 1 , which are 38 and 34 % greater than the prediction by the Garratt model for the marine environment.  相似文献   

15.
For many decades, attempts have been made to find the universal value of the critical bulk Richardson number ( $Ri_{Bc}$ ; defined over the entire stable boundary layer). By analyzing an extensive large-eddy simulation database and various published wind-tunnel data, we show that $Ri_{Bc}$ is not a constant, rather it strongly depends on bulk atmospheric stability. A (qualitatively) similar dependency, based on the well-known resistance laws, was reported by Melgarejo and Deardorff (J Atmos Sci 31:1324–1333, 1974) about forty years ago. To the best of our knowledge, this result has largely been ignored. Based on data analysis, we find that the stability-dependent $Ri_{Bc}$ estimates boundary-layer height more accurately than the conventional constant $Ri_{Bc}$ approach. Furthermore, our results indicate that the common practice of setting $Ri_{Bc}$ as a constant in numerical modelling studies implicitly constrains the bulk stability of the simulated boundary layer. The proposed stability-dependent $Ri_{Bc}$ does not suffer from such an inappropriate constraint.  相似文献   

16.
The air–sea transfer velocity of $\mathrm{CO}_{2}\, (k_{\mathrm{CO}_{2}})$ was investigated in a shallow estuary in March to July 2012, using eddy-covariance measurements of $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ fluxes and measured air–sea $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ partial-pressure differences. A data evaluation method that eliminates data by nine rejection criteria in order to heighten parametrization certainty is proposed. We tested the data evaluation method by comparing two datasets: one derived using quality criteria related solely to the eddy-covariance method, and the other derived using quality criteria based on both eddy-covariance and cospectral peak methods. The best parametrization of transfer velocity normalized to a Schmidt number of 600 $(k_{600})$ was determined to be: $k_{600} = 0.3\,{U_{10}}^{2.5}$ where $U_{10}$ is the wind speed in m $\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ at 10 m; $k_{600}$ is based on $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ fluxes calculated by the eddy-covariance method and including the cospectral peak method criteria. At low wind speeds, the transfer velocity in the shallow water estuary was lower than in other coastal waters, possibly a symptom of low tidal amplitude leading to low intensity water turbulence. High transfer velocities were recorded above wind speeds of 5 m $\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ , believed to be caused by early-breaking waves and the large fetch (6.5 km) of the estuary. These findings indicate that turbulence in both air and water influences the transfer velocity.  相似文献   

17.
This paper synthesizes results of the multi-model Energy Modeling Forum 27 (EMF27) with a focus on climate policy scenarios. The study included two harmonized long-term climate targets of 450 ppm CO2-e (enforced in 2100) and 550 pm CO2-e (not-to-exceed) as well as two more fragmented policies based on national and regional emissions targets. Stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450 and 550 ppm CO2-e requires a dramatic reduction of carbon emissions compared to baseline levels. Mitigation pathways for the 450 CO2-e target are largely overlapping with the 550 CO2-e pathways in the first half of the century, and the lower level is achieved through rapid reductions in atmospheric concentrations in the second half of the century aided by negative anthropogenic carbon flows. A fragmented scenario designed to extrapolate current levels of ambition into the future falls short of the emissions reductions required under the harmonized targets. In a more aggressive scenario intended to capture a break from observed levels of stringency, emissions are still somewhat higher in the second half due to unabated emissions from non-participating countries, emphasizing that a phase-out of global emissions in the long term can only be reached with full global participation. A key finding is that a large range of energy-related CO2 emissions can be compatible with a given long-term target, depending on assumptions about carbon cycle response, non-CO2 and land use CO2 emissions abatement, partly explaining the spread in mitigation costs.  相似文献   

18.
The air–sea $\text{ CO }_{2}$ flux was measured from a research vessel in the North Yellow Sea in October 2007 using an open-path eddy-covariance technique. In 11 out of 64 samples, the normalized spectra of scalars ( $\text{ CO }_{2}$ , water vapour, and temperature) showed similarities. However, in the remaining samples, the normalized $\text{ CO }_{2}$ spectra were observed to be greater than those of water vapour and temperature at low frequencies. In this paper, the noise due to cross-sensitivity was identified through a combination of intercomparisons among the normalized spectra of three scalars and additional analyses. Upon examination, the cross-sensitivity noise appeared to be mainly present at frequencies ${<}0.8\,\text{ Hz }$ . Our analysis also suggested that the high-frequency fluctuations of $\text{ CO }_{2}$ concentration (frequency ${>}0.8\,\text{ Hz }$ ) was probably less affected by the cross-sensitivity. To circumvent the cross-sensitivity issue, the cospectrum in the high-frequency range 0.8–1.5 Hz, instead of the whole range, was used to estimate the $\text{ CO }_{2}$ flux by taking the contribution of the high frequency to the $\text{ CO }_{2}$ flux to be the same as the contribution to the water vapour flux. The estimated air–sea $\text{ CO }_{2}$ flux in the North Yellow Sea was $-0.039\,\pm \,0.048\,\text{ mg } \text{ m }^{-2}\,\text{ s }^{-1},$ a value comparable to the estimates using the inertial dissipation method and Edson’s method (Edson et al., J Geophys Res 116:C00F10, 2011).  相似文献   

19.
Developing economy greenhouse gas emissions are growing rapidly relative to developed economy emissions (Boden et al. 2010) and developing economies as a group have greater emissions than developed economies. These developments are expected to continue (U.S. Energy Information Administration 2010), which has led some to question the effectiveness of emissions mitigation in developed economies without a commitment to extensive mitigation action from developing economies. One often heard argument against proposed U.S. legislation to limit carbon emissions to mitigate climate change is that, without participation from large developing economies like China and India, stabilizing temperature at 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial (United Nations 2009), or even reducing global emissions levels, would be impossible (Driessen 2009; RPC Energy Facts 2009) or prohibitively expensive (Clarke et al. 2009). Here we show that significantly delayed action by rapidly developing countries is not a reason to forgo mitigation efforts in developed economies. This letter examines the effect of a scenario with no explicit international climate policy and two policy scenarios, full global action and a developing economy delay, on the probability of exceeding various global average temperature changes by 2100. This letter demonstrates that even when developing economies delay any mitigation efforts until 2050 the effect of action by developed economies will appreciably reduce the probability of more extreme levels of temperature change. This paper concludes that early carbon mitigation efforts by developed economies will considerably affect the distribution over future climate change, whether or not developing countries begin mitigation efforts in the near term.  相似文献   

20.
A regional atmospheric climate model with multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Two different GCMs (ECHAM5 until 2100 and HadCM3 until 2200) and two different emission scenarios (A1B and E1) are used as forcing to capture a realistic range in future climate states. Simulated ice sheet averaged 2 m air temperature (T2m) increases (1.8–3.0 K in 2100 and 2.4–5.3 K in 2200), simultaneously and with the same magnitude as GCM simulated T2m. The SMB and its components increase in magnitude, as they are directly influenced by the temperature increase. Changes in atmospheric circulation around Antarctica play a minor role in future SMB changes. During the next two centuries, the projected increase in liquid water flux from rainfall and snowmelt, together 60–200 Gt year?1, will mostly refreeze in the snow pack, so runoff remains small (10–40 Gt year?1). Sublimation increases by 25–50 %, but remains an order of magnitude smaller than snowfall. The increase in snowfall mainly determines future changes in SMB on the AIS: 6–16 % in 2100 and 8–25 % in 2200. Without any ice dynamical response, this would result in an eustatic sea level drop of 20–43 mm in 2100 and 73–163 mm in 2200, compared to the twentieth century. Averaged over the AIS, a strong relation between $\Updelta$ SMB and $\Updelta\hbox{T}_{2{\rm m}}$ of 98 ± 5 Gt w.e. year?1 K?1 is found.  相似文献   

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