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1.
The major (M w = 8.8) Chilean earthquake of 27 February 2010 generated a trans-oceanic tsunami that was observed throughout the Pacific Ocean. Waves associated with this event had features similar to those of the 1960 tsunami generated in the same region by the Great (M w = 9.5) 1960 Chilean Earthquake. Both tsunamis were clearly observed on the coast of British Columbia. The 1960 tsunami was measured by 17 analog pen-and-paper tide gauges, while the 2010 tsunami was measured by 11 modern digital coastal tide gauges, four NEPTUNE-Canada bottom pressure recorders located offshore from southern Vancouver Island, and two nearby open-ocean DART stations. The 2010 records were augmented by data from seven NOAA tide gauges on the coast of Washington State. This study examines the principal characteristics of the waves from the 2010 event (height, period, duration, and arrival and travel times) and compares these properties for the west coast of Canada with corresponding properties of the 1960 tsunami. Results show that the 2010 waves were approximately 3.5 times smaller than the 1960 waves and reached the British Columbia coast 1 h earlier. The maximum 2010 wave heights were observed at Port Alberni (98.4 cm) and Winter Harbour (68.3 cm); the observed periods ranged from 12 min at Port Hardy to 110–120 min at Prince Rupert and Port Alberni and 150 min at Bamfield. The open-ocean records had maximum wave heights of 6–11 cm and typical periods of 7 and 15 min. Coastal and open-ocean tsunami records revealed persistent oscillations that “rang” for 3–4 days. Tsunami energy occupied a broad band of periods from 3 to 300 min. Estimation of the inverse celerity vectors from cross-correlation analysis of the deep-sea tsunami records shows that the tsunami waves underwent refraction as they approached the coast of Vancouver Island with the direction of the incoming waves changing from an initial direction of 340° True to a direction of 15° True for the second train of waves that arrived 7 h later after possible reflection from the Marquesas and Hawaiian islands.  相似文献   

2.
Bottom pressure gauges deployed in bays of Shikotan Island (South Kuril Islands) recently recorded two tsunamis: the Simushir (Kuril Islands) tsunami of January 13, 2007 generated by a local earthquake with magnitude M w = 8.1 and the Peruvian tsunami of August 15, 2007 generated by a distant earthquake, M w = 8.0. The records enabled us to investigate the properties of these two tsunamis and to estimate the effect of the regional and nearshore topography on arriving tsunami waves. Eigen periods and spatial structure of resonant oscillations in particular bays were examined based on results of numerical modeling. Significant amplification of the fundamental (Helmholtz) resonant modes in Malokurilskaya Bay (19 min) and in Krabovaya Inlet (29 min) and some secondary modes was caused by the Simushir tsunami. The considerably different geometry and bottom topography of these bays, located on the inner coast of the island, determine the differences in their eigen periods; the only mutual peak, which was found in both basins, had a period of 5 min and was probably related to the source features. The Peruvian tsunami was clearly recorded by the bottom pressure gauge in Tserkovnaya Bay on the outer (oceanic) coast of the island. Three dominant periods in the tsunami spectrum at this bay were 60, 30 and 19 min; the latter period was found to be related to the fundamental mode of the bay, while the other two periods appear to be associated with the shelf resonant amplification of tsunami waves arriving in the region of the South Kuril Islands. The prevalence of low-frequency components in the observed tsunami spectrum is probably associated with the large extension of the initial source area and faster decay of short period waves during the long trans-oceanic tsunami propagation.  相似文献   

3.
We studied the 11 March 2011 Tohoku tsunami through analysis of the sea level records from 21 tide gauge and 16 DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis) stations from across the Pacific Ocean. The extreme power of this trans-oceanic tsunami was indicated by the trough-to-crest heights of 3.03 m at Arena Cove on the western coast of the USA and 3.94 m at Coquimbo on the southern coast of Chile. The average value of the maximum amplitude was 163.9 cm for the examined tide gauge records. At many coastal tide gauge stations the largest wave arrived several hours after the first arrival of the tsunami wave, and the tsunami lasted for a long time with an average duration of 4 days. On the contrary, at most of the DART stations in the deep ocean, the first wave was the largest, the tsunami amplitudes were smaller with an average maximum of 51.2 cm, and the durations were shorter with an average of 2 days. The two dominant tsunami periods on the DART records were 37 and 67.4 min, which are possibly attributed to the width and length of the tsunami source fault, respectively. The dimensions of the tsunami source was estimated as 233 km × 424 km. Wavelet analyses of tide gauge and DART records showed that most of the tsunami energy was distributed at the wide period band of around 10–80 min during the first hour after the tsunami arrival, then it was concentrated in a relatively narrower band. The frequency-time plots showed the switches and lapses of tsunami energy at the 35- and 65-min period bands.  相似文献   

4.
The 2010 Mentawai earthquake (magnitude 7.7) generated a destructive tsunami that caused more than 500 casualties in the Mentawai Islands, west of Sumatra, Indonesia. Seismological analyses indicate that this earthquake was an unusual “tsunami earthquake,” which produces much larger tsunamis than expected from the seismic magnitude. We carried out a field survey to measure tsunami heights and inundation distances, an inversion of tsunami waveforms to estimate the slip distribution on the fault, and inundation modeling to compare the measured and simulated tsunami heights. The measured tsunami heights at eight locations on the west coasts of North and South Pagai Island ranged from 2.5 to 9.3 m, but were mostly in the 4–7 m range. At three villages, the tsunami inundation extended more than 300 m. Interviews of local residents indicated that the earthquake ground shaking was less intense than during previous large earthquakes and did not cause any damage. Inversion of tsunami waveforms recorded at nine coastal tide gauges, a nearby GPS buoy, and a DART station indicated a large slip (maximum 6.1 m) on a shallower part of the fault near the trench axis, a distribution similar to other tsunami earthquakes. The total seismic moment estimated from tsunami waveform inversion was 1.0 × 1021 Nm, which corresponded to Mw 7.9. Computed coastal tsunami heights from this tsunami source model using linear equations are similar to the measured tsunami heights. The inundation heights computed by using detailed bathymetry and topography data and nonlinear equations including inundation were smaller than the measured ones. This may have been partly due to the limited resolution and accuracy of publically available bathymetry and topography data. One-dimensional run-up computations using our surveyed topography profiles showed that the computed heights were roughly similar to the measured ones.  相似文献   

5.
The tsunami generated by the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake (M w = 9.0) reached maximum heights of about 5 m along the coast of the Kuril Islands. The most essential feature of this event was sea ice about 0.5 m thick moved by the ocean water. The tsunami did not cause any essential damage on the Kuril Islands, but significantly affected coastal zones and produced interesting effects. The problem of a tsunami accompanied by marine ice is discussed and illustrated with photos.  相似文献   

6.
We studied two tsunamis from 2012, one generated by the El Salvador earthquake of 27 August (Mw 7.3) and the other generated by the Philippines earthquake of 31 August (Mw 7.6), using sea level data analysis and numerical modeling. For the El Salvador tsunami, the largest wave height was observed in Baltra, Galapagos Islands (71.1 cm) located about 1,400 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 9 and 19 min. Numerical modeling indicated that most of the tsunami energy was directed towards the Galapagos Islands, explaining the relatively large wave height there. For the Philippines tsunami, the maximum wave height of 30.5 cm was observed at Kushimoto in Japan located about 2,700 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 8, 12 and 29 min. Numerical modeling showed that a significant part of the far-field tsunami energy was directed towards the southern coast of Japan. Fourier and wavelet analyses as well as numerical modeling suggested that the dominant period of the first wave at stations normal to the fault strike is related to the fault width, while the period of the first wave at stations in the direction of fault strike is representative of the fault length.  相似文献   

7.
We report the statistical and wavelet analyses of the 21 May 2003 tsunami produced by an M w 6.8–6.9 thrust earthquake in the western Mediterranean Sea using 19 tide gauge records. The largest trough-to-crest wave height was 196 cm recorded at the Sant Antoni station in the lee of the incoming tsunami wave. Except at one station, the first wave was not the largest wave at all the analyzed stations, and the largest wave arrived several hours after the first arrival. In addition, the tsunami waves persisted for more than 1 day at most stations. As the spectra of coastal tide gauge stations are strongly influenced by topographic features, special care was taken here while interpreting the results of spectral and wavelet analysis. Our wavelet analysis shows that only a peak at around 23 min is persistent for long duration, and other peaks at 14, 30, 45, and 60 min appeared at short durations. The 23-min signal is possibly associated with the width of the source fault whereas the fault length contributed to the 45-min signal. Based on these dominant periods, the tsunami source dimensions are estimated as 95 km × 45 km. The statistical and wavelet analyses performed here provide some new insights into the characteristics of the tsunami that was generated and propagated in the western Mediterranean basin.  相似文献   

8.
—The 1994 great Kuril earthquake generated an unusual tsunami that was observed at five tide gauges on the Hokkaido coast of the Okhotsk Sea. The tsunami arrived at tide gauges considerably earlier than the expected time, calculated on the assumption that the tsunami source area coincides with the aftershock area. Numerical simulation of the tsunami shows that the first wave of the tsunami in the Okhotsk Sea was generated by the significant subsidence north of the Kuril Islands. It is assumed that this subsidence is due to the earthquake. The coseismic deformation area of the ocean bottom extended over a vastly larger area than the aftershock area or the rupture area for the Kuril earthquake. The numerical simulation also shows that the tsunami observed at Utoro during the first hour after the origin time of the earthquake was mainly generated by the horizontal movement of the sloping ocean bottom near the Shiretoko Peninsula.  相似文献   

9.
Tide gauge data collected from Sri Lanka (three stations) and Western Australia (eleven stations) during the Indian Ocean tsunamis, which occurred in December 2004, March 2005, July 2006, and September 2007, and incorporated five tsunamis, were examined to determine tsunami behaviour during these events. During the December 2004 tsunami, maximum wave heights of 3.87 m and 1.75 m were recorded at Colombo (Sri Lanka) and Bunbury (Western Australia), respectively. The results indicated that although the relative magnitudes of the tsunamis varied, the tsunami behaviour at each station was similar. This was due to the effect of the local and regional topography. At all tide gauges, the spectral energy corresponding to periods between 20 and 85 minutes increased during the tsunami. The sea-level data obtained from the west and south coasts of Sri Lanka (Colombo and Kirinda) indicated the importance of wave reflections from the Maldives Island chain, which produced the maximum wave two to three hours after the arrival of the first wave. In contrast, Trincomalee on the east coast did not show evidence of a reflected wave. Similarly, along the west coast of Australia, the highest waves occurred 15 hours after the arrival of the first wave. Here, based on travel times, we postulated that the waves were reflected from the Mascarene Ridge and/or the Island of Madagascar. Reflected waves were not present in the 2006 tsunami, where the primary waves propagated away from topographic features. One of the main influences of the tsunami was to set up oscillations at the local resonance frequency. Because Sri Lanka and Western Australia have relatively straight coastlines, these oscillations were related to the fundamental period of the shelf oscillation. For Colombo, this corresponded to 75-minute period, whereas in Geraldton and Busselton (Australia), the four-hour period was most prominent; at Jurien Bay and Fremantle, the resonance period was 2.7 hours.  相似文献   

10.
On 11 March 2011, a moment magnitude M w = 9.0 earthquake occurred off the Japan Tohoku coast causing catastrophic damage and loss of human lives. In the immediate aftermath of the earthquake, we conducted the reconnaissance survey in the city of Rikuzentakata, Japan. In comparison with three previous historical tsunamis impacting the same region, the 2011 event presented the largest values with respect to the tsunami height, the inundation area and the inundation distance. A representative tsunami height of 15 m was recorded in Rikuzentakata, with increased heights of 20 m around rocky headlands. In terms of the inundation area, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami exceeded by almost 2.6 times the area flooded by the 1960 Chilean tsunami, which ranks second among the four events compared. The maximum tsunami inundation distance was 8.1 km along the Kesen River, exceeding the 1933 Showa and 1960 Chilean tsunami inundations by factors of 6.2 and 2.7, respectively. The overland tsunami inundation distance was less than 2 km. The tsunami inundation height linearly decreased along the Kesen River at a rate of approximately 1 m/km. Nevertheless, the measured inland tsunami heights exhibit significant variations on local and regional scales. A designated “tsunami control forest” planted with a cross-shore width of about 200 m along a 2 km stretch of Rikuzentakata coastline was completely overrun and failed to protect the local community during this extreme event. Similarly, many designated tsunami shelters were too low and were overwashed by tsunami waves, thereby failing to provide shelter for evacuees—a risk that had been underestimated.  相似文献   

11.
The 1771 Yaeyama tsunami is successfully reproduced using a simple faulting model without submarine landslide. The Yaeyama tsunami (M 7.4), which struck the southern Ryukyu Islands of Japan, produced unusually high tsunami amplitudes on the southeastern coast of Ishigaki Island and caused significant damage, including 12,000 casualties. Previous tsunami source models for this event have included both seismological faults and submarine landslides. However, no evidence of landslides in the source has been obtained, despite marine surveying of the area. The seismological fault model proposed in this study, describing a fault to the east of Ishigaki Island, successfully reproduces the distribution of tsunami runup on the southern coast of the Ryukyu Islands. The unusual runup heights are found through the numerical simulation attributable to a concentration of tsunami energy toward the southeastern coast of Ishigaki Island by the effect of the shelf to the east. Thus, the unusual runup heights observed on the southeastern coast of Ishigaki Island can be adequately explained by a seismological fault model with wave-ray bending on the adjacent shelf.  相似文献   

12.
Twin Tsunamis Triggered by the 12 January 2010 Haiti Earthquake   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
On 12 January 2010, a magnitude M w 7.0 earthquake occurred 25 km west–southwest of Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince causing an estimated 316,000 fatalities, thereby exceeding any previous loss of life from a similar size earthquake. In addition, tsunami waves triggered by the earthquake caused at least three fatalities at Petit Paradis due to a complete lack of tsunami awareness. The International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) was deployed within weeks of the event and covered the greater Bay of Port-au-Prince and more than 100 km of Hispaniola’s southern coastline. The collected survey data include more than 21 tsunami heights along with observations of coastal land level change. Maximum tsunami heights of 3 m have been measured for two independently triggered tsunamis.  相似文献   

13.
We modeled a tsunami from the West Papua, Indonesia earthquakes on January 3, 2009 (M w?=?7.7). After the first earthquake, tsunami alerts were issued in Indonesia and Japan. The tsunami was recorded at many stations located in and around the Pacific Ocean. In particular, at Kushimoto on Kii Peninsula, the maximum amplitude was 43?cm, larger than that at Manokwari on New Guinea Island, near the epicenter. The tsunami was recorded on near-shore wave gauges, offshore GPS sensors and deep-sea bottom pressure sensors. We have collected more than 150 records and used 72 stations?? data with clear tsunami signals for the tsunami source modeling. We assumed two fault models (single fault and five subfaults) which are located to cover the aftershock area. The estimated average slip on the single fault model (80?×?40?km) is 0.64?m, which yields a seismic moment of 1.02?×?1020?Nm (M w?=?7.3). The observed tsunami waveforms at most stations are well explained by this model.  相似文献   

14.
The slip distribution and seismic moment of the 2010 and 1960 Chilean earthquakes were estimated from tsunami and coastal geodetic data. These two earthquakes generated transoceanic tsunamis, and the waveforms were recorded around the Pacific Ocean. In addition, coseismic coastal uplift and subsidence were measured around the source areas. For the 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake, inversion of the tsunami waveforms recorded at nearby coastal tide gauge and Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) stations combined with coastal geodetic data suggest two asperities: a northern one beneath the coast of Constitucion and a southern one around the Arauco Peninsula. The total fault length is approximately 400 km with seismic moment of 1.7 × 1022 Nm (Mw 8.8). The offshore DART tsunami waveforms require fault slips beneath the coasts, but the exact locations are better estimated by coastal geodetic data. The 22 May 1960 earthquake produced very large, ~30 m, slip off Valdivia. Joint inversion of tsunami waveforms, at tide gauge stations in South America, with coastal geodetic and leveling data shows total fault length of ~800 km and seismic moment of 7.2 × 1022 Nm (Mw 9.2). The seismic moment estimated from tsunami or joint inversion is similar to previous estimates from geodetic data, but much smaller than the results from seismic data analysis.  相似文献   

15.
The M w = 9.0 earthquake that occurred off the coast of Japan’s Tohoku region produced a great tsunami causing catastrophic damage and loss of life. Within hours of the tsunami event, satellite data were readily available and massive media coverage immediately circulated thousands of photographs and videos of the tsunami. Satellite data allow a rapid assessment of inundated areas where access can be difficult either as a result of damaged infrastructure (e.g., roads, bridges, ports, airports) or because of safety issues (e.g., the hazard at Nuclear Power Plant at Fukushima). In this study, we assessed in a day tsunami inundation distances and runup heights using satellite data (very high-resolution satellite images from the GeoEye1 satellite and from the DigitalGlobe worldview, SRTM and ASTER GDEM) of the Tohoku region, Northeast Japan. Field survey data by Japanese and other international scientists validated our results. This study focused on three different locations. Site selection was based on coastal morphologies and the distance to the tsunami source (epicenter). Study sites are Rikuzentakata, Oyagawahama, and Yagawahama in the Oshika Peninsula, and the Sendai coastal plain (Sendai City to Yamamoto City). Maximum inundation distance (6 km along the river) and maximum runup (39 m) at Rikuzentakata estimated from satellite data agree closely with the 39.7 m inundation reported in the field. Here the ria coastal morphology and horn shaped bay enhanced the tsunami runup and effects. The Sendai coastal plain shows large inundation distances (6 km) and lower runup heights. Natori City and Wakabayashi Ward, on the Sendai plain, have similar runup values (12 and 16 m, respectively) obtained from SRTM data; these are comparable to those obtained from field surveys (12 and 9.5 m). However, at Yagawahama and Oyagawahama, Miyagi Prefecture, both SRTM and ASTER data provided maximum runup heights (41 to 45 m and 33 to 34 m, respectively), which are higher than those measured in the field (about 27 m). This difference in DEM and field data is associated with ASTER and SRTM DEM’s pixel size and vertical accuracy, the latter being dependent on ground coverage, slope, aspect and elevation. Countries with less access to technology and infrastructure can benefit from the use of satellite imagery and freely available DEMs for an initial, pre-field surveys, rapid estimate of inundated areas, distances and runup, and for assisting in hazard management and mitigation after a natural disaster.  相似文献   

16.
In the last 15 years there have been 16 tsunami events recorded at tide stations on the Pacific Coast of Canada. Eleven of these events were from distant sources covering almost all regions of the Pacific, as well as the December 26, 2004 Sumatra tsunami in the Indian Ocean. Three tsunamis were generated by local or regional earthquakes and two were meteorological tsunamis. The earliest four events, which occurred in the period 1994–1996, were recorded on analogue recorders; these tsunami records were recently re-examined, digitized and thoroughly analysed. The other 12 tsunami events were recorded using digital high-quality instruments, with 1-min sampling interval, installed on the coast of British Columbia (B.C.) in 1998. All 16 tsunami events were recorded at Tofino on the outer B.C. coast, and some of the tsunamis were recorded at eight or more stations. The tide station at Tofino has been in operation for 100 years and these recent observations add to the dataset of tsunami events compiled previously by S.O. Wigen (1983) for the period 1906–1980. For each of the tsunami records statistical analysis was carried out to determine essential tsunami characteristics for all events (arrival times, maximum amplitudes, frequencies and wave-train structure). The analysis of the records indicated that significant background noise at Langara, a key northern B.C. Tsunami Warning station located near the northern end of the Queen Charlotte Islands, creates serious problems in detecting tsunami waves. That station has now been moved to a new location with better tsunami response. The number of tsunami events observed in the past 15 years also justified re-establishing a tide gauge at Port Alberni, where large tsunami wave amplitudes were measured in March 1964. The two meteorological events are the first ever recorded on the B.C. coast. Also, there have been landslide generated tsunami events which, although not recorded on any coastal tide gauges, demonstrate, along with the recent investigation of a historical catastrophic event, the significant risk that landslide generated tsunami pose to coastal and inland regions of B.C.  相似文献   

17.
Centroid moment tensor solutions for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake are determined by W phase inversions using 5 and 10 min data recorded by the Full Range Seismograph Network of Japan (F-net). By a scaling relation of moment magnitude to rupture area and an assumption of rigidity of 4 × 1010 N m?2, simple rectangular earthquake fault models are estimated from the solutions. Tsunami inundations in the Sendai Plain, Minamisanriku, Rikuzentakata, and Taro are simulated using the estimated fault models. Then the simulated tsunami inundation area and heights are compared with the observations. Even the simulated tsunami heights and inundations from the W phase solution that used only 5 min data are considerably similar to the observations. The results are improved when using 10 min of W phase data. These show that the W phase solutions are reliable to be used for tsunami inundation modeling. Furthermore, the technique that combines W phase inversion and tsunami inundation modeling can produce results that have sufficient accuracy for tsunami early warning purposes.  相似文献   

18.
On 15 July 2009, a Mw 7.8 earthquake occurred off the New Zealand coast, which by serendipitous coincidence occurred while the International Tsunami Symposium was in session in Novosibirsk, Russia. The earthquake generated a tsunami that propagated across the Tasman Sea and was detected in New Zealand, Australia and as far away as the US West coast. Small boats close to the epicenter were placed in jeopardy, but no significant damage was observed despite a measured run-up height of 2.3 m in one of the Sounds in close proximity to the source (Wilson in GNS Science Report 46:62 2009). Peak-to-trough tsunami heights of 55 cm were measured at Southport, Tasmania and a height of 1 m was measured in Jackson Bay, New Zealand. The International Tsunami Symposium provided an ideal venue for illustration of the value of immediate real-time assessment and provided an opportunity to further validate the real time forecasting capabilities with the scientific community in attendance. A number of agencies with responsibility for tsunami forecast and/or warning, such as the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, GNS Science in New Zealand, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the European Commission Joint Research Centre were all represented at the meeting and were able to demonstrate the use of state of the art numerical models to assess the tsunami potential and provide warning as appropriate.  相似文献   

19.
On March 11, 2011 at 5:46:23 UTC (March 10 11:46:23 PM Galapagos Local Time), the Mw 9.0 Great East Japan Earthquake occurred near the Tohoku region off the east coast of Japan, spawning a Pacific-wide tsunami. Approximately 12,000 km away, the Galapagos Islands experienced moderate tsunami impacts, including flooding, structural damage, and strong currents. In this paper, we present observations and measurements of the tsunami effects in the Galapagos, focusing on the four largest islands in the archipelago; (from west to east) Isabela, Santiagio, Santa Cruz, and San Cristobal. Access to the tsunami affected areas was one of the largest challenges of the field survey. Aside from approximately ten sandy beaches open to tourists, all other shoreline locations are restricted to anyone without a research permit; open cooperation with the Galapagos National Park provided the survey team complete access to the Islands coastlines. Survey locations were guided by numerical simulations of the tsunami performed prior to the field work. This numerical guidance accurately predicted the regions of highest impact, as well as regions of relatively low impact. Tide-corrected maximum tsunami heights were generally in the range of 3–4 m with the highest runup of 6 m measured in a small pocket beach on Isla Isabela. Puerto Ayora, on Santa Cruz Island, the largest harbor in the Galapagos experienced significant flooding and damage to structures located at the shoreline. A current meter moored inside the harbor recorded relatively weak tsunami currents of less than 0.3 m/s (0.6 knot) during the event. Comparisons with detailed numerical simulations suggest that these low current speed observations are most likely the result of data averaging at 20-min intervals and that maximum instantaneous current speeds were considerably larger. Currents in the Canal de Itabaca, a natural waterway between Santa Cruz Island and a smaller island offshore, were strong enough to displace multiple 5.5-ton navigation buoys. Numerical simulations indicate that currents in the Canal de Itabaca exceeded 4 m/s (~8 knots), a very large flow speed for a navigational waterway.  相似文献   

20.
Probabilistic Assessment of Tsunami Recurrence in the Indian Ocean   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The Indian Ocean is one of the most tsunamigenic regions of the world and recently experienced a mega-tsunami in the Sumatra region on 26 December 2004 (M W 9.2 earthquake) with tsunami intensity I (Soloviev-Imamura intensity scale) equal to 4.5, causing heavy destruction of lives and property in the Indian Ocean rim countries. In this study, probabilities of occurrences of large tsunamis with tsunami intensities I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0 (average wave heights H ≥ 2.83 m and H ≥ 5.66 m, respectively) during a specified time interval were calculated using three stochastic models, namely, Weibull, gamma and lognormal. Tsunami recurrence was calculated for the whole Indian Ocean and the special case of the Andaman-Sumatra-Java (ASJ) region, excluding the 1945 Makran event from the main data set. For this purpose, a reliable, homogeneous and complete tsunami catalogue with I ≥ 2.0 during the period 1797–2006 was used. The tsunami hazard parameters were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The logarithm of likelihood function (ln L) was estimated and used to test the suitability of models in the examined region. The Weibull model was observed to be the most suitable model to estimate tsunami recurrence in the region. The sample mean intervals of occurrences of tsunamis with intensity I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0 were calculated for the observed data as well as for the Weibull, gamma and lognormal models. The estimated cumulative and conditional probabilities in the whole Indian Ocean region show recurrence periods of about 27–30 years (2033–2036) and 35–36 years (2039–2040) for tsunami intensities I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0, respectively, while it is about 31–35 years (2037–2041) and 41–42 years (2045–2046) for a tsunami of intensity I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0, respectively, in the ASJ region. A high probability (>0.9) of occurrence of large tsunamis with I ≥ 2.0 in the next 30–40 years in the Indian Ocean region was revealed.  相似文献   

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