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1.
Chukwuemeka Frank R. Odumodu Ayonma Wilfred Mode 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2016,88(1):107-118
Geothermal gradients and present day heat flow values were evaluated for about seventy one wells in parts of the eastern Niger delta, using reservoir and corrected bottom–hole temperatures data and other data collected from the wells. The results showed that the geothermal gradients in the shallow/continental sections in the Niger delta vary between 10 - 18° C/km onshore, increasing to about 24° C/km seawards, southwards and eastwards. In the deeper (marine/paralic) section, geothermal gradients vary between 18 - 45° C/km. Heat flow values computed using Petromod 1–D modeling software and calibrated against corrected BHT and reservoir temperatures suggests that heat flow variations in this part of the Niger delta range from 29–55 mW/m2 (0.69–1.31 HFU) with an average value of 42.5 mW/m2 (1.00 HFU). Heat flow variations in the eastern Niger delta correspond closely to variations in geothermal gradients. Geothermal gradients increase eastwards, northwards and seawards from the coastal swamp. Vertically, thermal gradients in the Niger delta show a continuous and non-linear relationship with depth, increasing with diminishing sand percentages. As sand percentages decrease eastwards and seawards, thermal gradient increases. Lower heat flow values (< 40 mW/m2) occur in the western and north central parts of the study area. Higher heat flow values (40 - 55 mW/m2) occur in the eastern and northwestern parts of the study area. A significant regional trend of eastward increase in heat flow is observed in the area. Other regional heat flow trends includes; an eastwards and westwards increase in heat flow from the central parts of the central swamp and an increase in heat flow from the western parts of the coastal swamp to the shallow offshore. Vertical and lateral variations in thermal gradients and heat flow values in parts of the eastern Niger delta are influenced by certain mechanisms and geological factors which include lithological variations, variations in basement heat flow, temporal changes in thermal gradients and heat flow, related to thicker sedmentary sequence, prior to erosion and evidenced by unconformities, fluid redistribution by migration of fluids and different scales of fluid migration in the sub-surface and overpressures. 相似文献
2.
Gregory D. Lazear 《Hydrogeology Journal》2006,14(8):1582-1598
The Tongue Creek watershed lies on the south flank of Grand Mesa in western Colorado, USA and is a site with 1.5 km of topographic relief, heat flow of 100 mW/m2, thermal conductivity of 3.3 W m–1 °C–1, hydraulic conductivity of 10-8 m/s, a water table that closely follows surface topography, and groundwater temperatures 3–15°C above mean surface temperatures. These data suggest that convective heat transport by groundwater flow has modified the thermal regime of the site. Steady state three-dimensional numerical simulations of heat flow, groundwater flow, and convective transport were used to model these thermal and hydrological data. The simulations provided estimates for the scale of hydraulic conductivity and bedrock base flow discharge within the watershed. The numerical models show that (1) complex three-dimensional flow systems develop with a range of scales from tens of meters to tens of kilometers; (2) mapped springs are frequently found at locations where contours of hydraulic head indicate strong vertical flow at the water table, and; (3) the distribution of groundwater temperatures in water wells as a function of surface elevation is predicted by the model. 相似文献
3.
4.
Bottom-hole temperature values from approximately 36,000 wells in Alberta. Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Canada, have been used to study thermal gradients and heat flow density there. It is found that variations of heat flow density with depth occur throughout the Prairies basin. Differences in heat flow density exist between the Mesozoic + Cenozoic and Paleozoic sediments and are related to the hydrodynamics which is controlled by the topography. The heat flow density through the Mesozoic + Cenozoic of the upper part of the section is less than that in the Paleozoic formations of the lower part of the section in recharge areas, but greater in discharge areas. A zone in which heat flow is approximately constant with depth extends down the central part of the basin between the recharge and discharge areas. Heat flowdensity in this zone lies between 60 mW m?2 and 80 mW m?2 and is thought to be representative of the deep crustal heat flow density. It is suggested that temperature variations on the Precambrian basement that are not depth related may be associated with anomalous heat flow regimes in the lower crust. 相似文献
5.
Urban areas are major contributors to the alteration of the local atmospheric and groundwater environment. The impact of such changes on the groundwater thermal regime is documented worldwide by elevated groundwater temperature in city centers with respect to the surrounding rural areas. This study investigates the subsurface urban heat island (SUHI) in the aquifers beneath the Milan city area in northern Italy, and assesses the natural and anthropogenic controls on groundwater temperatures within the urban area by analyzing groundwater head and temperature records acquired in the 2016–2020 period. This analysis demonstrates the occurrence of a SUHI with up to 3 °C intensity and reveals a correlation between the density of building/subsurface infrastructures and the mean annual groundwater temperature. Vertical heat fluxes to the aquifer are strongly related to the depth of the groundwater and the density of surface structures and infrastructures. The heat accumulation in the subsurface is reflected by a constant groundwater warming trend between +0.1 and?+?0.4 °C/year that leads to a gain of 25 MJ/m2 of thermal energy per year in the shallow aquifer inside the SUHI area. Future monitoring of groundwater temperatures, combined with numerical modeling of coupled groundwater flow and heat transport, will be essential to reveal what this trend is controlled by and to make predictions on the lateral and vertical extent of the groundwater SUHI in the study area.
相似文献6.
P. Nagaraju Labani Ray G. Ravi Vyasulu V. Akkiraju Sukanta Roy 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2012,80(1):39-47
Heat flow has been determined by combining temperature measurements in 7 boreholes with thermal conductivity measurements in the Upper Vindhyan sedimentary rocks of Shivpuri area, central India. The boreholes are distributed at 5 sites within an area of 15 × 10 km2; their depths range from 174 to 268 m. Geothermal gradients estimated from borehole temperature profiles vary from 8.0–12.7 mK m−1 in the sandstone-rich formations to 25.5–27.5 mK m−1 in the shale-rich formations, consistent with the contrast in thermal conductivities of the two rock types. Heat flow in the area ranges between 45 and 61 mW m−2, with a mean of 52±6 mW m−2. The heat flow values are similar to the >50 mW m−2 heat flow observed in other parts of the northern Indian shield. The heat flow determinations represent the steady-state heat flow because, the thermal transients associated with the initial rifting, convergence and sedimentation in the basin as well as the more recent Deccan volcanism that affected the region to the south of the basin would have decayed, and therefore, the heat flow is in equilibrium with the radiogenic heat production of the crust and the heat flow from the mantle. The present study reports the heat flow measurements from the western part of the Vindhyan basin and provides heat flow information for the Bundhelkhand craton for the first time. Radioelement (Th, U and K) abundances have been measured both in the sedimentary rocks exposed in the area as well as in the underlying basement granite-gneiss of Bundelkhand massif exposed in the adjacent area. Radioactive heat production, estimated from those abundances, indicate mean values of 0.3 μW m−3 for sandstone with inter-bands of shale and siltstone, 0.25 μW m−3 for sandstone with inter-bands siltstone, 0.6 μW m−3 for quartzose sandstone, and 2.7 μW m−3 for the basement granitoids. With a total sedimentary thickness not exceeding a few hundred metres in the area, the heat production of the sedimentary cover would be insignificant. The radioactive heat contribution from the basement granitoids in the upper crust is expected to be large, and together with the heat flow component from the mantle, would control the crustal thermal structure in the region. 相似文献
7.
Controls on groundwater flow in the Bengal Basin of India and Bangladesh: regional modeling analysis 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Groundwater for domestic and irrigation purposes is produced primarily from shallow parts of the Bengal Basin aquifer system (India and Bangladesh), which contains high concentrations of dissolved arsenic (exceeding worldwide drinking water standards), though deeper groundwater is generally low in arsenic. An essential first step for determining sustainable management of the deep groundwater resource is identification of hydrogeologic controls on flow and quantification of basin-scale groundwater flow patterns. Results from groundwater modeling, in which the Bengal Basin aquifer system is represented as a single aquifer with higher horizontal than vertical hydraulic conductivity, indicate that this anisotropy is the primary hydrogeologic control on the natural flowpath lengths. Despite extremely low hydraulic gradients due to minimal topographic relief, anisotropy implies large-scale (tens to hundreds of kilometers) flow at depth. Other hydrogeologic factors, including lateral and vertical changes in hydraulic conductivity, have minor effects on overall flow patterns. However, because natural hydraulic gradients are low, the impact of pumping on groundwater flow is overwhelming; modeling indicates that pumping has substantially changed the shallow groundwater budget and flowpaths from predevelopment conditions. 相似文献
8.
S. Bachu 《Tectonophysics》1985,120(3-4):257-284
A detailed study of the groundwater and terrestrial heat flow was carried out over an area of 23,700 km2 west of Cold Lake, Alberta, which is part of the western Canada sedimentary basin. The information for the study was provided from data from 3100 wells drilled in the area. The screening and processing of thousands of stratigraphic picks, drillstem test data, bottom hole temperatures and formation water chemistry data was performed mainly using a specially designed software package. As a result, every stratigraphic unit is characterized by appropriate hydraulic and thermal parameters.
A sequence of aquifers, aquitards and aquicludes was differentiated. The groundwater flow in the Paleozoic aquifers is regional in nature and mainly horizontal. The flow in the Cretaceous aquifers is of intermediate type, mainly downward oriented. In general, the permeability of the Cretaceous and Paleozoic strata has such low values that the fluid velocity is less than 1 cm/yr.
The convective heat transport in the hydrostratigraphic sequence is negligible with respect to the conductive heat transfer, as shown by the Peclet number of the fluid and heat flow in porous media. The flow of the terrestrial heat flux from the Precambrian basement of the sedimentary basin to the atmosphere is controlled by the variability in the thermal properties of the formations in the basin.
The geothermal gradients were computed by hydrostratigraphic unit using a linear regression fit to the temperature data. As expected, they show higher values for the less conductive layers, and lower values for the more conductive ones. The weighted average, or the integral geothermal gradient of the whole sedimentary column, was computed by considering the difference between the temperature measured at the Precambrian basement and the annual average temperature at the surface. The areal distribution of the integral geothermal gradient (with an average of 22.0 mK/m) shows a strong correlation with the lithology.
The areal temperature distribution for each hydrostratigraphic unit was analyzed by mapping the deviation of the measured value from the computed geothermal gradient. The lateral heat flow from warmer to colder areas is one order of magnitude smaller than the vertical heat flow. In the more homogeneous units, the lateral heat flow presents a trend that seems to reflect the geometry and lithology. 相似文献
9.
A two-dimensional modelling study of sedimentation, fluid flow, and heat flow in the Baikal rift basin undergoing flank uplift and basin subsidence has been performed in order to understand the impact of these processes on the surface heat flow signal. Heat flow anomalies of different scales and magnitudes have been observed at the sediment surface of the lake Baikal basin, and the presence of a hydrothermal vent suggests that fluids play an important role in the regional distribution of heat flow. The BASIN-code applied for this study allows to simulate topographically and compaction-driven hydrodynamical fluid flow and coupled heat transfer.The flank uplift history provides the basis for a regional groundwater circulation towards the central basin area, with predicted Darcy velocities at present-day situation in the basement varying between 1 and 100 cm/year. Within the basin, the presence of aquifers and the pinch-out layering has a major control on the flow field, and compaction-driven flow velocities are strongly altered when combined with topography-driven flow. When velocities in the basement are larger than several centimeters per year, the regional fluid circulation is an effective mechanism of heat redistribution. Heat is brought from the flanks towards the basin area, with largest heat transported at a depth of 1–2 km at both sides. During the flank uplift, heat advection increases, with secondary variation related to the deposition of sedimentary layers. The heat flow is increased over the basin and reduced in the flanks, with a total heat output balance always positive. The extra heat output over the modelled transection is 2–10% of the initial heat output. The maximum computed heat fluxes are smaller than measured in the heat flow anomalies of the lake Baikal basin. Nevertheless, the model suggests that flow in the sedimentary basin combined with a topographically driven heat advection in the surrounding basement is a sufficient mechanism to account for the increased heat flow over the basin and the main features of the heat flow distribution. 相似文献
10.
Temperature measurements carried out on 9 hydrocarbon exploration boreholes together with Bottom Simulating Reflectors (BSRs) from reflection seismic images are used in this study to derive geothermal gradients and heat flows in the northern margin of the South China Sea near Taiwan. The method of Horner plot is applied to obtain true formation temperatures from measured borehole temperatures, which are disturbed by drilling processes. Sub-seafloor depths of BSRs are used to calculate sub-bottom temperatures using theoretical pressure/temperature phase boundary that marks the base of gas hydrate stability zone. Our results show that the geothermal gradients and heat flows in the study area range from 28 to 128 °C/km and 40 to 159 mW/m2, respectively. There is a marked difference in geothermal gradients and heat flow beneath the shelf and slope regions. It is cooler beneath the shelf with an average geothermal gradient of 34.5 °C/km, and 62.7 mW/m2 heat flow. The continental slope shows a higher average geothermal gradient of 56.4 °C/km, and 70.9 mW/m2 heat flow. Lower heat flow on the shelf is most likely caused by thicker sediments that have accumulated there compared to the sediment thickness beneath the slope. In addition, the continental crust is highly extended beneath the continental slope, yielding higher heat flow in this region. A half graben exists beneath the continental slope with a north-dipping graben-bounding fault. A high heat-flow anomaly coincides at the location of this graben-bounding fault at the Jiulong Ridge, indicating vigorous vertical fluid convection which may take place along this fault. 相似文献
11.
An updated analysis of geothermal data from the highland area of eastern Brazil has been carried out and the characteristics of regional variations in geothermal gradients and heat flow examined. The database employed includes results of geothermal measurements at 45 localities. The results indicate that the Salvador craton and the adjacent metamorphic fold belts northeastern parts of the study area are characterized by geothermal gradients in the range of 6–17°C/km. The estimated heat flow values fall in the range of 28–53 mW/m2, with low values in the cratonic area relative to the fold belts. On the other hand, the São Francisco craton and the intracratonic São Francisco sedimentary basin in the southwestern parts are characterized by relatively higher gradient values, in the range of 14–42°C/km, with the corresponding heat flow values falling in the range of 36–89 mW/m2. Maps of regional variations indicate that high heat flow anomaly in the São Francisco craton is limited to areas of sedimentary cover, to the west of the Espinhaço mountain belt. Crustal thermal models have been developed to examine the implications of the observed intracratonic variations in heat flow. The thermal models take into consideration variation of thermal conductivity with temperature as well as change of radiogenic heat generation with depth. Vertical distributions of seismic velocities were used in obtaining estimates of radiogenic heat production in crustal layers. Crustal temperatures are calculated based on a procedure that makes simultaneous use of the Kirchoff and Generalized Integral Transforms, providing thereby analytical solutions in 2D and 3D geometry. The results point to temperature variations of up to 300°C at the Moho depth, between the northern Salvador and southern São Francisco cratons. There are indications that differences in rheological properties, related to thermal field, are responsible for the contrasting styles of deformation patterns in the adjacent metamorphic fold belts. 相似文献
12.
The GALO system is applied to the numerical reconstruction of burial and thermal histories of the West Bashkirian lithosphere from the Riphean to the present. An analysis of the variation in tectonic subsidence of the basin during its development is utilized to estimate approximately the mantle heat flow variations. Our variant of basin evolution suggests that after cooling in the Early Riphean, the rather weak thermal reactivations have not led to considerable heating of the lithosphere in the study region. Surface heat flow decreased from relatively high values in the Early Riphean (60–70 mW/m2 in the eastern area and 40–50 mW/m2 in the western part) to present-day values of 32–40 mW/m2. In spite of the relatively low temperature regime of the basin as a whole, a syn-rifting deposition of more than 10 km of limestone, shale and sandstone in the Riphean resulted in rather high temperatures (180–190 °C) at the base of present-day sedimentary blanket in the eastern area. In agreement with the observed data, computed present-day heat flow through the sediment surface increases slightly from 32 to 34 mW/m2 near the west boundary of the region to 42 mW/m2 near the boundary of the Ural Foldbelt, whereas the heat flow through the basement surface decreases slightly from 28–32 to 24–26 mW/m2 in the same direction. The mantle heat flow is only 11.3–12.7 mW/m2, which is considerable lower than mean heat flow of the Russian Platform (16–18 mW/m2) and comparable with the low heat flow of Precambrian shields. 相似文献
13.
Tsung-Ren Peng Chung-Ho Wang Tein-Chang Lai Frank Shu-Ken Ho 《Environmental Geology》2007,52(8):1617-1629
Over a 1-year period, 343 samples, including precipitation, creek, pond, and groundwater, were collected from June 2003 to
May 2004. Analyses were performed for stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope compositions. Selected samples were also analyzed
for tritium. The goal was to identify possible hydrologic factors contributing to a severe landslide in the Li-Shan area,
central Taiwan. The isotope characteristics indicate that groundwater from Fu-Shou-Shan farm located up-slope from the landslide
area is a major source for slope groundwater, in addition to precipitation. The groundwater is mainly recharged by pond water
at Fu-Shou-Shan farm. According to the calculation of a two-end member equation with δ
18O, the contribution of farm groundwater to slope groundwater is significantly higher than that of precipitation, up to a factor
of five. The estimated drainage efficiency of the existing system is only 23%. Draining off the slope groundwater in the up-slope
region to decrease farm groundwater flow into the slope area is a feasible strategy to effectively reduce the risk of landslide. 相似文献
14.
《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part A: Solid Earth and Geodesy》2000,25(6-7):597-604
We made temperature measurements in the crystalline basement of the superdeep and deep boreholes located in the central-eastern part of the East European platform. The basement in the studied region is characterized by an average heat flow of 60 mW m−2. Our experiments have revealed temperature anomalies in the crystalline basement that we interpreted as unconsolidated zones. The studies indicate that fluid injection anomalies, sheet flow and overflow zones and gas anomalies can be detected by temperature measurements. 相似文献
15.
雷州半岛地热场主要受基底构造格局的控制和地下水活动的影响,隐伏花岗岩体放射性元素生热对盖层地温的贡献不可忽视,第四纪更新世火山喷发活动的岩浆余热已几乎完全散失,岩浆体和围岩温度已趋于平衡。由火山喷发而形成的雷北螺岗岭和雷南石峁岭两个玄武岩台地,为半岛地下水的主要补给区,由于冷水流下渗的地温效应,新生界盖层浅部地温梯度<3℃/100m,呈现地热负异常。在以传导传热为主的区域,地热场特点与华北盆地相似,新生界盖层地温梯度与基底岩面的埋深密切相关。由于地壳深部较均一的热流在地壳表部再分配的结果,若干凸起区盖层地温梯度为4—5℃/100m,呈现地热正异常。某些控制凸起区的边界断裂,当深层热水沿其上涌,造成附加热源,和传导传热相叠加,盖层地温梯度可高达5—8℃/100m,形成更鲜明的地热正异常。 相似文献
16.
《Journal of African Earth Sciences》1999,28(3):641-652
Data from sixteen deep walls drilled for oil exploration purposes in the Anambra Basin of southeastern Nigeria indicate large variations in temperature gradients and heat flow within the basin. Geothermal gradients vary between 25 and 49 ± 1°C km−1, while heat flow estimates are in the range 48 to 76 ± 3 mW m−2. The highest geothermal gradients and heat flow values were computed for the wells located in the southwestern part of the basin north of Onitsha and Asaba. This part of the basin coincides with zones of thick, low conductivity sediments, low ground surface elevation, and hydraulic discharge zones. The general direction of increase in geothermal gradient, originally projected as south to north by earlier workers dealing with the Niger Delta data and the very limited well data from the Anambra Basin, is inconsistent with the results of the present study.The distribution of subsurface temperatures, geothermal gradients and heat flow is found to be directly related to the basin hydrodynamics - higher geothermal gradients and heat flow in areas of low hydraulic head distribution. Hydrocarbon metamorphism and migration appear to have been greatly influenced by the movements of circulating meteoric waters. A higher level of organic maturity of sediments should be expected in the southwestern zone, where the thermal anomaly exists. However, owing to hydrodynamic activities, tertiary migration would have taken place leaving many traces of residual hydrocarbons. The several cases of fluorescence noticed in wells in the southwestern zone of the Anambra Basin are taken as evidence that this process may indeed have taken place in the geological past of the basin. 相似文献
17.
《Tectonophysics》1987,134(4):339-345
Downward continuation of temperature data from 73 wells extending to depths of 250 ft (76 m) provides constraints on the thermal regime of the Valles Caldera. Surface-temperature gradient data and bottom-hole temperatures were used as constraints in the downward continuation. Three factors were found to control the shallow thermal regime:
- 1.(1) heat associated with the main geothermal source;
- 2.(2) local topography; and
- 3.(3) west-southwest groundwater flow. Although the well density is relatively high, comparison with the topography shows that the wells are not randomly distributed and tend to be clustered in valleys. Many details in the thermal regime appear to be related to groundwater drainage in these valleys. Temperature gradients and temperatures generally increase in the same direction as the regional drainage of the caldera suggesting a long-wavelength, shallow component to this regional gradient trend. Inversion of gradient and temperature data show additional deep heat input in the west-southwest sector of the caldera which appears to be spatially associated to the youngest volcanism. A previously reported northeast displacement of the main heat source from the surface anomaly has not been confirmed.
18.
Ground-source geothermal systems are drawing increasing attention and popularity due to their efficiency, sustainability and being implementable worldwide. Consequently, design software and regulatory guidelines have been developed. Interaction with the subsurface significantly affects the thermal performance, sustainability, and impacts of such systems. Reviewing the related guidelines and the design software, room for improvement is evident, especially in regards to interaction with groundwater movement. In order to accurately evaluate the thermal effect of system and hydrogeological properties on a borehole heat exchanger, a fully discretized finite-element model is used. Sensitivity of the loop outlet temperatures and heat exchange rates to hydrogeological, system and meteorological factors (i.e. groundwater flux, thermal conductivity and volumetric heat capacity of solids, porosity, thermal dispersivity, grout thermal conductivity, background and inlet temperatures) are analyzed over 6-month and 25-year operation periods. Furthermore, thermal recovery during 25 years after system decommissioning has been modeled. The thermal plume development, transport and dissipation are also assessed. This study shows the importance of subsurface thermal conductivity, groundwater flow (flux > 10?7 m/s), and background and inlet temperature on system performance and impact. It also shows the importance of groundwater flow (flux > 10?8 m/s) on thermal recovery of the ground over other factors. 相似文献
19.
The study reports the age evolution of groundwater as it flows from the recharge area through a regional alluvial aquifer system in North Gujarat-Cambay region in western India. Radiocarbon (14C), 4He and 4He / 222Rn dating methods have been employed. Sediments from a drill core in the Cambay Basin were also analysed for uranium (U) and thorium (Th) concentrations and the measured values have been used to estimate the 4He and 222Rn production rate for groundwater age calculations. Additionally, factors controlling the distribution of 222Rn, 4He and temperature anomalies in groundwater, vis-à-vis their relation to the tectonic framework and lithology of the study area, have also been examined.The multi-isotope study indicated a reasonable correspondence in groundwater age estimates by the three methods employed. The groundwater 14C ages increased, progressively, in the groundwater flow direction: from the foothills of Aravalli Mountains in the east, and reached a value of ∼35 ka towards the region of lowest elevation, linking Little Rann of Kachchh (LRK)-Nalsarovar (NS)-Gulf of Khambhat (GK) in the western part of the study area. In this region, groundwater ages obtained for free flowing thermal wells and springs employing 4He and 4He / 222Rn systematics are in the order of million years. Such anomalous ages are possibly due to enhanced mobilisation and migration of ‘excess helium’ from hydrothermal circulation vents along deep-seated faults. Excluding such anomalous cases and considering all uncertainties, presently estimated 4He and 4He / 222Rn groundwater ages are in reasonable agreement with 14C age estimates in the Cambay Basin for helium release factor (ΛHe) value of 0.4 ± 0.3. The 4He method also indicated west-southwards progression of groundwater ages up to ∼100 ka beyond the Cambay Basin.Large ‘excess helium’ concentrations are also seen to be generally associated with anomalous groundwater temperatures (> 35 °C) and found to overlie some of the basement faults in the study area, particularly along the east and the west flanks of the Cambay Basin. Groundwater 222Rn activities in most of the study area are 800 ± 400 dpm/l. But, a thermal spring at Tuwa on the east flank of the Cambay Basin, having granitic basement at shallow depth, recorded the highest 222Rn activity (∼63,000 dpm/l). 相似文献
20.
Gao Shuhui Jin Huijun Wu Qingbai Bense Victor F. Luo Dongliang Wang Qingfeng Yang Yuzhong Chang Wenwen 《Hydrogeology Journal》2023,31(3):789-811
Warming climate and thawing permafrost have profound impacts on groundwater flow regimes in cold regions because of the shrinkage or disappearance of the confining unit formed by the permafrost layers and improving hydraulic connections. Numerical simulations of coupled groundwater flow and heat transfer are often used to characterize the changing permafrost hydrogeology. In this study, a number of scenarios for different hydraulic gradients and lake-water depths have been used to simulate the concordant permafrost evolution and groundwater movement using a two-dimensional cylindrical coordinate model at time scales of decades to centuries in response to a warming climate. The model is applied to a representative headwater catchment in the south-central headwater area of the Yellow River on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. The results show that the presence and movement of groundwater and the deeper subpermafrost aquifer can substantially accelerate permafrost degradation, and the disappearance of residual permafrost at depth can result in the sudden establishment of deep groundwater flow paths. All hydrological impacts will become evident after the stabilization of the hydrothermal and flow fields at 100–200 years. The stable discharge rate of groundwater flow varies from 8.0 to 12.4 m3 s−1, and the stable velocity of groundwater flow varies from 1.6 × 10−7 to 4.4 × 10−7 m s−1 under different scenarios within the model domain. The modeling results also demonstrate that flow velocity and discharge rate in local groundwater flow systems can be enhanced by an increased hydraulic conductivity, leading to an accelerated degradation of isolated permafrost bodies.
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