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1.
The seismological data in the area of induced seismicity in the region of the Nurek reservoir are analyzed. The analysis is based on the developed database for the earthquakes that occurred from 1955 to 1989 and is aimed at finding the regularities in the variations of the parameters of the transitional seismic regime caused by filling a reservoir. These parameters include the b-value—the slope of the graph of the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude relationship, the fractal dimension d of the set of the epicenters, and fracture cycle parameter q = αb ? d, where coefficient α determines the ratio between the magnitude and source size M = α log l + β. It is shown that during the filling of a reservoir, these parameters undergo statistically reliable variations: at the initial stages, the b-value increases, the fractal dimension of the set of epicenters decreases, and the fracture cycle parameter q grows and becomes positive in the middle of the time interval of reservoir filling. After a reservoir is filled, these parameters recover their background values. The aftershock sequences of the three strongest earthquakes—before, in the beginning, and in the middle of the reservoir filling period—are studied. It is confirmed that the Omori parameter p for the aftershock sequences during filling is smaller than for the earthquake before filling. Based on the dynamics of the studied parameters, it is conjectured that the relaxation time of the transitional seismic regime after the emergence of induced seismicity is about 10 years.  相似文献   

2.
Prediction of magnitude of the largest potentially induced seismic event   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
We propose a method for determining the possible magnitude of a potentially largest induced seismic event derived from the Gutenberg–Richter law and an estimate of total released seismic moment. We emphasize that the presented relationship is valid for induced (not triggered) seismicity, as the total seismic moment of triggered seismicity is not bound by the injection. The ratio of the moment released by the largest event and weaker events is determined by the constants a and b of the Gutenberg–Richter law. We show that for a total released seismic moment, it is possible to estimate number of events greater than a given magnitude. We determine the formula for the moment magnitude of a probable largest seismic event with one occurrence within the recurrence interval (given by one volumetric change caused by mining or injecting). Finally, we compare theoretical and measured values of the moment magnitudes of the largest induced seismic events for selected geothermal and hydraulic fracturing projects.  相似文献   

3.
The aim of this study is to investigate the seismicity of Central Anatolia, within the area restricted to coordinates 30–35° longitude and 38–41° latitude, by determining the “a” and “b” parameters in a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship using data from earthquakes of moment magnitude (Mw)?≥?4.0 that occurred between 1900 and 2010. Based on these parameters and a Poisson model, we aim to predict the probability of other earthquakes of different magnitudes and return periods (recurrence intervals). To achieve this, the study area is divided into six seismogenic zones, using spatial distributions of earthquakes greater than Mw?≥?4.0 with active faults. For each seismogenic zone, the a and b parameters in the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship were calculated by the least squares method. The probability of occurrence and return periods of various magnitude earthquakes were calculated from these statistics using the Poisson method.  相似文献   

4.
—?The procedure developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1989, 1992) and Kijko and Graham (1998, 1999) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in north Algeria. The area-specific seismic hazard parameters that were calculated consist of the b value of the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude relation, the activity rate λ(M) for events above the magnitude M, and the maximum regional magnitude M max. These parameters were calculated for each of the six seismogenic zones of north Algeria. The site-specific seismic hazard was calculated in terms of the maximum possible PGA at hypothetical engineering structures (HES), situated in each of the six seismogenic zones with coordinates corresponding with those of the six most industrial and populated cities in Algeria.  相似文献   

5.
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently in a ratification phase. Under the CTBT, an International Monitoring System (IMS) of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors is operational, and the data from the IMS is analysed by the International Data Centre (IDC). The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics (for example, shallow depth). An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the null hypothesis H 0: explosion characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy (magnitudes). The established magnitude used for event size is the body-wave magnitude (denoted m b) computed from the initial segment of a seismic waveform. IDC screening analysis is applied to events with m b greater than 3.5. The Rayleigh wave magnitude (denoted M S) is a measure of later arriving surface wave energy. Magnitudes are measurements of seismic energy that include adjustments (physical correction model) for path and distance effects between event and station. Relative to m b, earthquakes generally have a larger M S magnitude than explosions. This article proposes a hypothesis test (screening analysis) using M S and m b that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the null hypothesis H 0: explosion characteristics.  相似文献   

6.
—?In this paper, we use data from seismic stations operated by NORSAR, the Kola Regional Seismological Centre (KRSC) and IRIS to study the characteristics of regional phases in the European Arctic, with emphasis on the P/S ratio discriminant. While the detection and location capability of the regional station network is outstanding, source classification of small seismic events has proved very difficult. For example, the m b ?=?3.5 seismic event near Novaya Zemlya on 16 August, 1997 has been the subject of extensive analysis in order to locate it reliably and to classify the source type. We consider the application of the P/S discriminant in the context of this event and other events observed at regional distances in the European Arctic. We show that the P/S ratios of Novaya Zemlya nuclear explosions measured in the 1–3?Hz filter band scale with magnitude, indicating a need for caution and further research when applying P/S discriminants. Using mainly data from the large NORSAR array, we note that observed P/S amplitude ratios in the European Arctic show large variability for the same source type and similar propagation paths, even when considering closely spaced observation points. This effect is most pronounced at far regional distances and relatively low frequencies (typically 1–3?Hz), but it is also significant on closer recordings (around 10 degrees) and at higher frequencies (up to about 8?Hz). Our conclusion from this study is that the P/S ratio at high frequencies (e.g., 6–8?Hz) shows promise as a discriminant between low-magnitude earthquakes and explosions in the European Arctic, but its application will require further research, including extensive regional calibration and detailed station-source corrections. Such research should also focus on combining the P/S ratio with other short-period discriminants, such as complexity and spectral ratios.  相似文献   

7.
In this article, we review the general characteristics of seismicity in and around China and the overall statistics of earthquake damage in 2021, focusing on several significant events and related scientific topics. Among them, the largest event is the MS 7.4 Madoi earthquake in Qinghai Province, northwest China. The event marks another MS ?≥ ?7 earthquake occurring near the boundary of the Bayan Har Block that has ended a remarkable quiescence of the MS ?≥ ?7 earthquakes within the Chinese mainland. In addition, the MS 6.4 Yangbi earthquake in Yunnan Province, southwest China draws the most attention because of its abundant foreshocks, which are well recorded by the densely distributed seismic stations in the surrounding regions. Regarding this event, we review several recent publications focusing on the Gutenberg-Richter b-value change and the physical mechanism of foreshocks associated with this sequence. The MS 6.0 Luxian earthquake in Sichuan Province, southwest China has caused serious damage with a relatively low magnitude, partly because the focal depth of the mainshock is relatively shallow (3.5 ?km). It is another strong earthquake occurring within the southeast Sichuan basin with low historical seismicity yet has increased significantly since 2015, probably due to shale gas development and associated hydraulic fracturing.  相似文献   

8.
Mine tremors and their aftershocks pose a risk to mine workers in the deep gold mines of South Africa. The statistical properties of mine-tremor aftershocks were investigated as part of an endeavour to assess the hazard and manage the risk. Data from two gold mines in the Carletonville mining district were used in the analysis. Main shocks were aligned in space and time and the aftershock sequences stacked and analysed. The aftershocks were found to satisfy Gutenberg–Richter scaling, with a b value close to 1. Aftershock activity diminished with time in accordance with the modified Omori law, with p values close to 1. However, the relationship between the main shock and its biggest aftershock violated Båths law, with ΔM L ≈ 1.9 for main shocks with M L < 3 and increasing for main shocks with M L > 3. The aftershock density was found to fall-off with distance as r ?1.3, suggesting triggering by dynamic stress.  相似文献   

9.
We have monitored seismic activity induced by impoundment of Lake Jocassee in northwest South Carolina for about two years. Low-level shallow activity was recorded. The larger felt events (2.0 ? ML ? 2.6) were found to be associated with precursory changes in one or more of the following; number of events, tS/tp ratio values and radon concentrations in groundwater.The microearthquakes in the precursory period were accurately located in time and space, and their location pattern was used to develop an empirical earthquake prediction model.The precursory period consists of two phases; α-phase or a period of slow (or no) increase in seismicity, and β-phase, a period when the activity increase is more rapid. The main shock was found to be located within a cluster, a “target” area defined by the location of events in the β-phase. There is a general absence of seismic activity in the “target” area in the α-phase. The main shock occurred soon after a period of quiescence in the seismic activity in the β-phase. The magnitude of the shock, ML is given by: ML = 2 log D ? 0.07, where D is the duration of the precursory period in days.The model was successfully tested with data for a magnitude 2.3 event on February 23, 1977 which was also accompanied by radon and ts/tp anomalies.  相似文献   

10.
Aftershock sequences of the magnitude M W =6.4 Bingöl earthquake of 1 May, 2003 (Turkey) are studied to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of seismicity parameters of the b value of the frequency-magnitude distribution and the p value describing the temporal decay rate of aftershocks. The catalog taken from the KOERI contains 516 events and one month’s time interval. The b value is found as 1.49 ± 0.07 with Mc =3.2. Considering the error limits, b value is very close to the maximum b value stated in the literature. This larger value may be caused by the paucity of the larger aftershocks with magnitude M D ≥ 5.0. Also, the aftershock area is divided into four parts in order to detect the differences in b value and the changes illustrate the heterogeneity of the aftershock region. The p value is calculated as 0.86 ± 0.11, relatively small. This small p value may be a result of the slow decay rate of the aftershock activity and the small number of aftershocks. For the fitting of a suitable model and estimation of correct values of decay parameters, the sequence is also modeled as a background seismicty rate model. Constant background activity does not appear to be important during the first month of the Bingöl aftershock sequences and this result is coherent with an average estimation of pre-existing seismicity. The results show that usage of simple modified Omori law is reasonable for the analysis. The spatial variability in b value is between 1.2 and 1.8 and p value varies from 0.6 to 1.2. Although the physical interpretation of the spatial variability of these seismicity parameters is not straightforward, the variation of b and p values can be related to the stress and slip distribution after the mainshock, respectively. The lower b values are observed in the high stress regions and to a certain extent, the largest b values are related to Holocene alluvium. The larger p values are found in some part of the aftershock area although no slip occurred after the main shock and it is interpreted that this situation may be caused by the alluvium structure of the region. These results indicate that the spatial distribution in b and p values are generally related to the rupture mechanism and material properties of an aftershock area.  相似文献   

11.
Quality factor Q, which describes the attenuation of seismic waves with distance, was determined for South Africa using data recorded by the South African National Seismograph Network. Because of an objective paucity of seismicity in South Africa and modernisation of the seismograph network only in 2007, I carried out a coda wave decay analysis on only 13 tectonic earthquakes and 7 mine-related events for the magnitude range 3.6?≤?M L ?≤?4.4. Up to five seismograph stations were utilised to determine Q c for frequencies at 2, 4, 8 and 16 Hz resulting in 84 individual measurements. The constants Q 0 and α were determined for the attenuation relation Q c(f)?=?Q 0 f α . The result was Q 0?=?396?±?29 and α?=?0.72?±?0.04 for a lapse time of 1.9*(t s???t 0) (time from origin time t 0 to the start of coda analysis window is 1.9 times the S-travel time, t s) and a coda window length of 80 s. This lapse time and coda window length were found to fit the most individual frequencies for a signal-to-noise ratio of at least 3 and a minimum absolute correlation coefficient for the envelope of 0.5. For a positive correlation coefficient, the envelope amplitude increases with time and Q c was not calculated. The derived Q c was verified using the spectral ratio method on a smaller data set consisting of nine earthquakes and one mine-related event recorded by up to four seismograph stations. Since the spectral ratio method requires absolute amplitudes in its calculations, site response tests were performed to select four appropriate stations without soil amplification and/or signal distortion. The result obtained for Q S was Q 0?=?391?±?130 and α?=?0.60?±?0.16, which agrees well with the coda Q c result.  相似文献   

12.
We analyzed the most relevant seismic sequences that occurred from 1977 to 2007 in the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region (northeastern Italy) and western Slovenia. The eight aftershock sequences were triggered by low- to moderate-magnitude earthquakes with mainshock duration magnitude ranging from 3.7 to 5.6. The b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter law varies from 0.8 to 1.1. The modified Omori’s modeling of the sequences evidences values of the p exponent ranging from 0.8 to 1.0. Using the Reasenberg and Jones (Science 243:1173–1176, 1989; Science 265:1251–1252, 1994) approach, we computed the probabilistic estimate of the aftershock rates and the largest aftershock in given time intervals. The difference in magnitude between the mainshock and the largest aftershock is calculated according to the modified Båth law and using an approach that considers the partitioning of the radiated seismic energy between mainshock and aftershocks. The partitioning of the radiated seismic energy appears to play a significant role in the evolution of the sequences. We define the parameter R ES as the ratio between the radiated seismic energy of the mainshock and the summation of the seismic energy radiated by the aftershocks. The difference in magnitude between the mainshock and the largest aftershock, calculated with the parameter R ES, agrees well with the observed difference. In most sequences, the parameter R ES decreases very quickly until the occurrence of the largest aftershock and then becomes constant. By analyzing the values of R ES during the early hours following the mainshock, we found that the R ES values after 24 h are well related to the final ones, calculated on the whole sequence, and to the differences in magnitude between the mainshock and the largest aftershock.  相似文献   

13.
The maximum likelihood estimation method is applied to study the geographical distribution of earthquake hazard parameters and seismicity in 28 seismogenic source zones of NW Himalaya and the adjoining regions. For this purpose, we have prepared a reliable, homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1500–2010. The technique used here allows the data to contain either historical or instrumental era or even a combination of the both. In this study, the earthquake hazard parameters, which include maximum regional magnitude (M max), mean seismic activity rate (λ), the parameter b (or β?=?b/log e) of Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) frequency-magnitude relationship, the return periods of earthquakes with a certain threshold magnitude along with their probabilities of occurrences have been calculated using only instrumental earthquake data during the period 1900–2010. The uncertainties in magnitude have been also taken into consideration during the calculation of hazard parameters. The earthquake hazard in the whole NW Himalaya region has been calculated in 28 seismogenic source zones delineated on the basis of seismicity level, tectonics and focal mechanism. The annual probability of exceedance of earthquake (activity rate) of certain magnitude is also calculated for all seismogenic source zones. The obtained earthquake hazard parameters were geographically distributed in all 28 seismogenic source zones to analyze the spatial variation of localized seismicity parameters. It is observed that seismic hazard level is high in Quetta-Kirthar-Sulaiman region in Pakistan, Hindukush-Pamir Himalaya region and Uttarkashi-Chamoli region in Himalayan Frontal Thrust belt. The source zones that are expected to have maximum regional magnitude (M max) of more than 8.0 are Quetta, southern Pamir, Caucasus and Kashmir-Himanchal Pradesh which have experienced such magnitude of earthquakes in the past. It is observed that seismic hazard level varies spatially from one zone to another which suggests that the examined regions have high crustal heterogeneity and seismotectonic complexity.  相似文献   

14.
—The maximum likelihood estimation of earthquake hazard parameters has been made in the Himalayas and its surrounding areas on the basis of a procedure which utilizes data containing complete files of the most recent earthquakes. The entire earthquake catalogue used covers the period from 1900–1990. The maximum regional magnitude M max?, the activity rate of the seismic event λ, the mean return period R of earthquakes with a certain lower magnitude M max≥ m along with their probability of occurrence, as well as the parameter b of of Gutenberg Richter magnitude-frequency relationship, have been determined for six different seismic zones of the Himalayas and its vicinity. It is shown that in general the hazard is higher in the zone NEI and BAN than the other four zones. The high difference of the b parameter and the hazard level from zone to zone reflect the high seismotectonic complexity and crustal heterogeneity.  相似文献   

15.
Laboratory samples of Westerly granite were impacted by a falling striker, and the time series of acoustic and electromagnetic emission (AE and EME) from fracturing rock were recorded with the time resolution of 10?ns. In order to determine precisely the actual instants of beginning and termination of fracturing, the fractoluminescence (FL) signal related to chemical bond ruptures on the sample surface was recorded in parallel to both AE and EME signals. Energy distributions in all three series were characterized by the function N(E?>?E′), where N is the number of emitted signals characterized with the energy release E exceeding a threshold value E′. The fracture dynamics was studied using both the scaling analysis and the non-extensive Tsallis statistics. The energy distributions were approximated with both the empirical Gutenberg–Richter-type relation N(E?>?E′) ∝ E′?b , and the analytical function N q (E?>?E′) that includes the Tsallis’ parameter of non-extensivity, q, and the released energy density. A comparative consideration of information taken from the data of EME, AE and FL emission techniques was carried out in the context of the physical sense of the parameters b and q. The AE time series reflected adequately the cracking process both at microscopic and laboratory scale levels, while the photon emission did not show a direct response on the split-off formation. Time resolution of the EME method was found to be insufficient for studying the dynamic fracture of the given kind.  相似文献   

16.
Shear wave velocity (V S) can be obtained using seismic tests, and is viewed as a fundamental geotechnical characteristic for seismic design and seismic performance evaluation in the field of earthquake engineering. To apply conventional geotechnical site investigation techniques to geotechnical earthquake engineering, standard penetration tests (SPT) and piezocone penetration tests (CPTu) were undertaken together with a variety of borehole seismic tests for a range of sites in Korea. Statistical modeling of the in-situ testing data identified correlations between V S and geotechnical in-situ penetration data, such as blow counts (N value) from SPT and CPTu data including tip resistance (q t), sleeve friction (f s), and pore pressure ratio (B q). Despite the difference in strain levels between conventional geotechnical penetration tests and borehole seismic tests, it is shown that the suggested correlations in this study is applicable to the preliminary determination of V S for soil deposits.  相似文献   

17.
Riassunto L'A. ha calcolato i valori di tpP-tp, in centesimi di secondo, usando la formola di Berlage, per profondità crescenti di 50 in 50 km fino a 800 km e per distanze epicentrali di 200 in 200 km sino a 11.400 km; partendo dai valori di vo e 1/V dati da Gutenberg e Richter. I valori degli intervalli tsS-tS sono stati ottenuti moltiplicando per 1,8 quelli di tpP-tp.
Zusammenfassung Ausgehend aus einer Formel von Berlage, hat der Verf. die Werte von tpP-tp, in Hunderstel von Sekunden, berechnet und zwar für Tiefen von je 50 km bis 800 km und für Herdentfernungen von je 200 km bis 11.400 km. Für die Werte von vo und 1/V wurden diejenigen von Gutenberg und Richter zugrunde gelegt. Die Werte von tsS-tS wurden durch Multiplikation mit 1,8 derjenigen von tpP-tp erhalten. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A2919006 00005
  相似文献   

18.
The 2022 MS 6.8 Luding earthquake is the strongest earthquake in Sichuan Province, Western China, since the 2017 MS 7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake. It occurred on the Moxi fault in the southeastern segment of the Xianshuihe fault, a tectonically active and mountainous region with severe secondary earthquake disasters. To better understand the seismogenic mechanism and provide scientific support for future hazard mitigation, we summarize the preliminary results of the Luding earthquake, including seismotectonic background, seismicity and mainshock source characteristics and aftershock properties, and direct and secondary damage associated with the mainshock. The peak ground displacements in the NS and EW directions observed by the nearest GNSS station SCCM are ～35 mm and ～55 mm, respectively, resulting in the maximum coseismic dislocation of 20 mm along the NWW direction, which is consistent with the sinistral slip on the Xianshuihe fault. Back-projection of teleseismic P waves suggest that the mainshock rupture propagated toward south-southeast. The seismic intensity of the mainshock estimated from the back-projection results indicates a Mercalli scale of VIII or above near the ruptured area, consistent with the results from instrumental measurements and field surveys. Numerous aftershocks were reported, with the largest being MS 4.5. Aftershock locations (up to September 18, 2022) exhibit 3 clusters spanning an area of 100 km long and 30 km wide. The magnitude and rate of aftershocks decreased as expected, and the depths became shallower with time. The mainshock and two aftershocks show left-lateral strike-slip focal mechanisms. For the aftershock sequence, the b-value from the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relationship, h-value, and p-value for Omori’s law for aftershock decay are 0.81, 1.4, and 1.21, respectively, indicating that this is a typical mainshock-aftershock sequence. The low b-value implies high background stress in the hypocenter region. Analysis from remote sensing satellite images and UAV data shows that the distribution of earthquake-triggered landslides was consistent with the aftershock area. Numerous small-size landslides with limited volumes were revealed, which damaged or buried the roads and severely hindered the rescue process.  相似文献   

19.
The earthquake inter-event time distribution is studied, using catalogs for different recent aftershock sequences. For aftershock sequences following the Modified Omori’s Formula (MOF) it seems clear that the inter-event distribution is a power law. The parameters of this law are defined and they prove to be higher than the calculated value (2–1/p). Based on the analysis of the catalogs, it is determined that the probability densities of the inter-event time distribution collapse into a single master curve when the data is rescaled with instantaneous intensity, R(t; M th ), defined by MOF. The curve is approximated by a gamma distribution. The collapse of the data provides a clear view of aftershock-occurrence self-similarity.  相似文献   

20.
In order to obtain a uniform magnitude catalogue, surface-wave magnitudes Ms and broad-band body-wave magnitudes mB have been determined for large shallow earthquakes from 1904 to 1980. In making the catalogue homogeneous, the author consistently adheres to the original definitions of Ms and mB given by Gutenberg (1945) and Gutenberg and Richter (1956). The determinations of Ms and mB are all based on the amplitude and period data listed in Gutenberg and Richter's unpublished notes, bulletins from stations worldwide, and other basic information. mB is measured on broad-band instruments in periods of ～8 s. Consistency of the magnitude determinations from these different sources is carefully checked in detail. More than 900 shallow shocks of magnitude 7 and over are catalogued. The meaning of the magnitude scales in various catalogues is examined in terms of Ms and mB. Most of the magnitudes listed by Gutenberg and Richter (1954) in their “Seismicity of the Earth” are basically Ms for large shocks shallower than 40 km, but are basically mB for large shocks at depths of 40–60 km. The surface-wave magnitudes given by “Earthquake Data Reports” are higher than Ms by 0.2 unit whether the combined horizontal amplitude or the vertical amplitude is used. mB and the currently used 1 s body-wave magnitude are measured at different periods and should not be directly compared.  相似文献   

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