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1.
A modal-based analysis of the dynamic response variability of multiple degree-of-freedom linear structures with uncertain parameters subjected to either deterministic or stochastic excitations is considered. A probabilistic methodology is presented in which random variables with specified probability distributions are used to quantify the parameter uncertainties. The uncertainty in the response due to uncertainties in the structural modelling and loading is quantified by various probabilistic measures such as mean, variance and coefficient of excess. The computation of these probabilistic measures is addressed. A series expansion involving orthogonal polynomials in terms of the system parameters is first used to model the response variability of each contributing mode. Linear equations for the coefficients of each series expansion are derived using the weighted residual method. Mode superposition is then used to derive analytical expressions for the variability and statistics of the uncertain response in terms of the coefficients of the series expansions for all contributing modes. A primary–secondary system and a ten-story building subjected to deterministic and stochastic loads are used to demonstrate the methodology, as well as evaluate its performance by comparing it to existing methods, including the computationally cost-efficient perturbation method. 相似文献
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Brendon A. Bradley 《地震工程与结构动力学》2013,42(11):1717-1729
The last decade of performance‐based earthquake engineering (PBEE) research has seen a rapidly increasing emphasis placed on the explicit quantification of uncertainties. This paper examines uncertainty consideration in input ground‐motion and numerical seismic response analyses as part of PBEE, with particular attention given to the physical consistency and completeness of uncertainty consideration. It is argued that the use of the commonly adopted incremental dynamic analysis leads to a biased representation of the seismic intensity and that when considering the number of ground motions to be used in seismic response analyses, attention should be given to both reducing parameter estimation uncertainty and also limiting ground‐motion selection bias. Research into uncertainties in system‐specific numerical seismic response analysis models to date has been largely restricted to the consideration of ‘low‐level’ constitutive model parameter uncertainties. However, ‘high‐level’ constitutive model and model methodology uncertainties are likely significant and therefore represent a key research area in the coming years. It is also argued that the common omission of high‐level seismic response analysis modelling uncertainties leads to a fallacy that ground‐motion uncertainty is more significant than numerical modelling uncertainty. The author's opinion of the role of uncertainty analysis in PBEE is also presented. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
H.U. Köylüo?lu S.R.K. Nielsen A.?. Çakmak 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》1996,15(6):359-368
A semi-analytical forward-difference Monte Carlo simulation procedure is proposed for the determination of the lower order statistical moments and the joint probability density function of the stochastic response of hysteretic non-linear multi-degree-of-freedom structural systems subject to nonstationary gaussian white noise excitation, as an alternative to conventional direct simulation methods. The method generalizes the so-called Ermak-Allen algorithm developed for simulation applications in molecular dynamics to structural hysteretic systems. The proposed simulation procedure rely on an assumption of local gaussianity during each time step. This assumption is tantamount to various linearizations of the equations of motion. The procedure then applies an analytical convolution of the excitation process, hereby reducing the generation of stochastic processes and numerical integration to the generation of random vectors only. Such a treatment offers higher rates of convergence, faster speed and higher accuracy. The procedure has been compared to the direct Monte Carlo simulation procedure, which uses a fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme with the white noise process approximated by a broad band Ruiz-Penzien broken line process. The considered system was a multi-dimenensional hysteretic shear frame, where the constitutive equation of the hysteretic shear forces are described by a bilinear hysteretic model. The comparisons show that significant savings in computer time and accuracy can be achieved. 相似文献
4.
为了在结构强震灾变过程模拟中正确反映结构参数的随机性并准确界定结构失效模式,提出一种平稳随机激励下随机结构非线性动力响应分析的简化方法.首先运用点估计法将复合非线性随机系统转化为一系列平稳随机激励下的确定性非线性结构,然后再应用成熟的等效线性化方法计算出平稳随机激励下非线性结构动力响应的各阶矩.文末进行了算例分析与验证... 相似文献
5.
Matjaz Dolsek 《地震工程与结构动力学》2009,38(6):805-825
Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) has been extended by introducing a set of structural models in addition to the set of ground motion records which is employed in IDA analysis in order to capture record‐to‐record variability. The set of structural models reflects epistemic (modeling) uncertainties, and is determined by utilizing the latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method. The effects of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty on seismic response parameters are therefore considered in extended IDA analysis. The proposed method has been applied to an example of the four‐storey‐reinforced concrete frame, for which pseudo‐dynamic tests were performed at the ELSA Laboratory, Ispra. The influence of epistemic uncertainty on the seismic response parameters is presented in terms of summarized IDA curves and dispersion measures. The results of extended IDA analysis are compared with the results of IDA analysis, and the sensitivity of the seismic response parameters to the input random variable using the LHS method is discussed. It is shown that epistemic uncertainty does not have significant influence on the seismic response parameters in the range far from collapse, but could have a significant influence on collapse capacity. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Nonstationary stochastic response of structural systems equipped with nonlinear viscous dampers under seismic excitation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 
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下载免费PDF全文 Nonlinear viscous dampers are supplemental devices widely used for enhancing the performance of structural systems exposed to seismic hazard. A rigorous evaluation of the effect of these damping devices on the seismic performance of a structural system should be based on a probabilistic approach and take into account the evolutionary characteristics of the earthquake input and of the corresponding system response. In this paper, an approximate analytical technique is proposed for studying the nonstationary stochastic response characteristics of hysteretic single degree of freedom systems equipped with viscous dampers subjected to a fully nonstationary random process representing the seismic input. In this regard, a stochastic averaging/linearization technique is utilized to cast the original nonlinear stochastic differential equation of motion into a simple first‐order nonlinear ordinary differential equation for the nonstationary system response variance. In comparison with standard linearization schemes, the herein proposed technique has the significant advantage that it allows to handle realistic seismic excitations with time‐varying frequency content. Further, it allows deriving a formula for determining the nonlinear system response evolutionary power spectrum. By this way, ‘moving resonance’ effects, related to both the evolutionary seismic excitation and the nonlinear system behavior, can be observed and quantified. Several applications involving various system and input properties are included. Furthermore, various response parameters of interest for the seismic performance assessment are considered as well. Comparisons with pertinent Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the reliability of the proposed technique. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
This paper addresses the problem of identification of the modal parameters for a structural system using measured non‐stationary response time histories only. A Bayesian time‐domain approach is presented which is based on an approximation of the probability distribution of the response to a non‐stationary stochastic excitation. It allows one to obtain not only the most probable values of the updated modal parameters and stochastic excitation parameters but also their associated uncertainties using only one set of response data. It is found that the updated probability distribution can be well approximated by a Gaussian distribution centred at the most probable values of the parameters. Examples using simulated data are presented to illustrate the proposed method. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
地震可靠度是桥梁抗震研究中的重要问题。基于随机分析的响应面理论和规范反应谱法,提出了一种分析具有随机结构参数的桥梁地震可靠度的方法,研究了结构的破坏准则及其极限状态方程,计算了高墩大跨连续刚构桥在地震激励下设计基准期内的动力可靠度。分析时考虑了结构参数和场地土的随机性,分别计算了连续刚构在多遇地震、设防地震和罕遇地震作用下的失效概率,得到了结构在设计基准期内,"三水准设防标准"条件下的地震可靠度。结果表明,该桥设计满足抗震规范要求。 相似文献
10.
Uncertainties in structural engineering are often arising from the modeling assumptions and errors, or from variability in input loadings. A practical approach for dealing with them is to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the framework of stochastic and probabilistic methods. These analyses can be statically and dynamically performed through nonlinear static pushover and IDA techniques, respectively. Of the existing structures, concrete gravity dams are infrastructures which may encounter many uncertainties. In this research, probabilistic analysis of the seismic performance of gravity dams is presented. The main characteristics of the nonlinear tensile behavior of mass concrete, along with the intensity of earthquake excitations are considered as random variables in the probabilistic analysis. Using the tallest non‐overflow monolith of the Pine Flat gravity dam as a case study, its response under static and dynamic situations is reliably examined utilizing different combinations of parameters in the material and the seismic loading. The sensitivity analysis reveals the relative importance of each parameter independently. It will be shown that the undamaged modulus of elasticity and tensile strength of mass concrete have more significant roles on the seismic resistance of the dam than the ultimate inelastic tensile strain. In order to propagate the parametric uncertainty to the actual seismic performance of the dam, probabilistic simulation methods such as Monte Carlo simulation with Latin hypercube sampling, and approximate moment estimation techniques will be used. The final results illustrate the possibility of using a mean‐parameter dam model to estimate the mean seismic performance of the dam. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The integrated effects of climate and hydrologic uncertainty on future flood risk assessments 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 This work examines future flood risk within the context of integrated climate and hydrologic modelling uncertainty. The research questions investigated are (1) whether hydrologic uncertainties are a significant source of uncertainty relative to other sources such as climate variability and change and (2) whether a statistical characterization of uncertainty from a lumped, conceptual hydrologic model is sufficient to account for hydrologic uncertainties in the modelling process. To investigate these questions, an ensemble of climate simulations are propagated through hydrologic models and then through a reservoir simulation model to delimit the range of flood protection under a wide array of climate conditions. Uncertainty in mean climate changes and internal climate variability are framed using a risk‐based methodology and are explored using a stochastic weather generator. To account for hydrologic uncertainty, two hydrologic models are considered, a conceptual, lumped parameter model and a distributed, physically based model. In the conceptual model, parameter and residual error uncertainties are quantified and propagated through the analysis using a Bayesian modelling framework. The approach is demonstrated in a case study for the Coralville Dam on the Iowa River, where recent, intense flooding has raised questions about potential impacts of climate change on flood protection adequacy. Results indicate that the uncertainty surrounding future flood risk from hydrologic modelling and internal climate variability can be of the same order of magnitude as climate change. Furthermore, statistical uncertainty in the conceptual hydrological model can capture the primary structural differences that emerge in flood damage estimates between the two hydrologic models. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
结构可靠性分析中各类不确定性的综合处理方法 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
本文在分析了文［１］推广的一次二阶矩方法的局限性后，利用高阶矩标准化方法进一步将该方法推广应用于含有离散变量及模糊不确定性的可靠性分析中，从而给出了一个结构可靠性分析中各类不确定性的综合处理方法。文中通过几个算例说明了该方法的实用性并初步分析了不确定性对可靠度分析结果的影响规律。最后，作为一个工程算例，对一个核电厂安全壳进行了地震可靠性分析。 相似文献
13.
Izuru Takewaki 《地震工程与结构动力学》2001,30(4):519-535
Since earthquake ground motions are very uncertain even with the present knowledge, it is desirable to develop a robust structural design method taking into account these uncertainties. Critical excitation approaches are promising and a new non‐stationary random critical excitation method is proposed. In contrast to the conventional critical excitation methods, a stochastic response index is treated as the objective function to be maximized. The power (area of power spectral density (PSD) function) and the intensity (magnitude of PSD function) are fixed and the critical excitation is found under these restrictions. It is shown that the original idea for stationary random inputs can be utilized effectively in the procedure for finding a critical excitation for non‐stationary random inputs. The key for finding the new non‐stationary random critical excitation is the exchange of the order of the double maximization procedures with respect to time and to the power spectral density function. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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选用胡聿贤平稳地震地面运动模型作为基础隔震结构的随机地震动输入,采用Bouc-Wen模型描述隔震结构的层间滞变位移,将滞变体系动力特性矩阵随机等效线性化,并建立等价线性状态方程。引入左右特征向量系,对振动微分方程进行解耦,推导了基础隔震结构随机地震响应的统计矩解析解。采用变形失效准则,定义了上部结构和隔震层的功能状态极限函数。在此基础上,采用首次超越破坏模型,基于Possion分布假设和串联系统可靠度模型,建立了从整体上评价基础隔震体系抗震可靠度的简化分析方法。最后,通过一个基础隔震框架结构计算实例,说明了这种方法的运用。 相似文献
15.
Abstract The uncertainty associated with a rainfall–runoff and non-point source loading (NPS) model can be attributed to both the parameterization and model structure. An interesting implication of the areal nature of NPS models is the direct relationship between model structure (i.e. sub-watershed size) and sample size for the parameterization of spatial data. The approach of this research is to find structural limitations in scale for the use of the conceptual NPS model, then examine the scales at which suitable stochastic depictions of key parameter sets can be generated. The overlapping regions are optimal (and possibly the only suitable regions) for conducting meaningful stochastic analysis with a given NPS model. Previous work has sought to find optimal scales for deterministic analysis (where, in fact, calibration can be adjusted to compensate for sub-optimal scale selection); however, analysis of stochastic suitability and uncertainty associated with both the conceptual model and the parameter set, as presented here, is novel; as is the strategy of delineating a watershed based on the uncertainty distribution. The results of this paper demonstrate a narrow range of acceptable model structure for stochastic analysis in the chosen NPS model. In the case examined, the uncertainties associated with parameterization and parameter sensitivity are shown to be outweighed in significance by those resulting from structural and conceptual decisions. Citation Parker, G. T. Rennie, C. D. & Droste, R. L. (2011) Model structure and uncertainty for stochastic non-point source modelling applications. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 870–882. 相似文献
16.
S. S. Law 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2009,8(1):103-114
A new method is proposed to assess the condition of structures under unknown support excitation by simultaneously detecting local damage and identifying the support excitation from several structural dynamic responses. The support excitation acting on a structure is modeled by orthogonal polynomial approximations, and the sensitivities of structural dynamic response with respect to its physical parameters and orthogonal coeffi cients are derived. The identifi cation equation is based on Taylor’s fi rst orde... 相似文献
17.
大震下被动与智能隔震结构动力可靠度的对比 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
对被动及智能隔震结构在“大震”条件下的动力可靠度进行探讨。将被动及智能隔震体系均取作弹塑性模型,并用退化Bouc-W en滞变模型描述上部结构的恢复力,用非退化Bouc-W en模型描述隔震层的恢复力。采用虚拟激励法计算结构的随机响应,根据我国抗震规范中“大震不倒”的设防目标,采用各层最大层间位移峰值响应和累积滞变耗能构造双参数的随机疲劳累积损伤指数,作为功能状态指标。假定各层失效相关,用串联系统计算体系动力可靠度。通过数值算例,对比了被动隔震、智能隔震与非隔震体系的条件失效概率,从动力可靠度角度显示了智能隔震体系的减震优势。 相似文献
18.
Earthquake excitation not only has evident randomness but also has strong fuzziness owing to the uncertainties in the definition of earthquake intensity and site soil classification. In this paper, the seismic ground motion is simulated as a stationary filtered white noise with fuzzy parameters, an analytical procedure is proposed to analyse the fuzzy random vibration of multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) hysteretic systems, and the covariance matrix of the fuzzy random responses is derived by the equivalent linearization technique. Finally, some numerical results for a two-storey shear hysteretic frame are presented to demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the procedure proposed. 相似文献
19.
This research is part of a larger effort to better understand and quantify the epistemic model uncertainty in dynamic response-history simulations. This paper focuses on how calibration methods influence model uncertainty. Structural models in earthquake engineering are typically built up from independently calibrated component models. During component calibration, engineers often use experimental component response under quasi-static loading to find parameters that minimize the error in structural response under dynamic loading. Since the calibration and the simulation environments are different, if a calibration method wants to provide optimal parameters for simulation, it has to focus on features of the component response that are important from the perspective of global structural behavior. Relevance describes how efficiently a calibration method can focus on such important features. A framework of virtual experiments and a methodology is proposed to evaluate the influence of calibration relevance on model error in simulations. The evaluation is demonstrated through a case study with buckling-restrained braced frames (BRBF). Two calibration methods are compared in the case study. The first, highly relevant calibration method is based on stiffness and hardening characteristics of braces; the second, less relevant calibration method is based on the axial force response of braces. The highly relevant calibration method consistently identified the preferable parameter sets. In contrast, the less relevant calibration method showed poor to mediocre performance. The framework and methodology presented here are not limited to BRBF. They have the potential to facilitate and systematize the improvement of component-model calibration methods for any structural system. 相似文献
20.
A generalized pushover analysis (GPA) procedure is developed for estimating the inelastic seismic response of structures under earthquake ground excitations. The procedure comprises applying different generalized force vectors separately to the structure in an incremental form with increasing amplitude until a prescribed seismic demand is attained for each generalized force vector. A generalized force vector is expressed as a combination of modal forces, and simulates the instantaneous force distribution acting on the system when a given response parameter reaches its maximum value during dynamic response to a seismic excitation. While any response parameter can be selected arbitrarily, generalized force vectors in the presented study are derived for maximum interstory drift parameters. The maximum value of any other response parameter is then obtained from the envelope of GPAs results. Each nonlinear static analysis under a generalized force vector activates the entire multi‐degree of freedom effects simultaneously. Accordingly, inelastic actions develop in members with the contribution of all ‘instantaneous modes’ in the nonlinear response range. Target seismic demands for interstory drifts at the selected stories are calculated from the associated drift expressions. The implementation of the proposed GPA is simpler compared with nonlinear response history analysis, whereas it is less demanding in computational effort when compared with several multi‐mode adaptive nonlinear static procedures. Moreover, it does not suffer from the statistical combination of inelastic modal responses obtained separately. The results obtained from building frames have demonstrated that GPA is successful in estimating maximum member deformations and member forces with reference to the response history analysis. When the response is linear elastic, GPA and response spectrum analysis produce identical results. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献