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1.
Summary The influence of ENSO on intraseasonal variability over the Tanzanian coast during the short (OND) and long (MAM) rainy seasons is examined. In particular, variability in the rainfall onset, peak and end dates as well as dry spells are considered. In general, El Niño appears to be associated with above average rainfall while La Niña is associated with below average rainfall over the northern Tanzanian coast during OND, and to lesser extent MAM. Over the southern coast, the ENSO impacts are less coherent and this region appears to be a transition zone between the opposite signed impacts over equatorial East and southern Africa. The increased north coast rainfall during El Niño years is generally due to a longer than normal rainfall season associated with early onset while reduced rainfall during La Niña years tends to be associated with a late onset, and thus a shorter than average rainfall season. Wet conditions during El Niño years were associated with enhanced convection and low-level easterly anomalies over the equatorial western Indian Ocean implying enhanced advection of moisture from the Indian Ocean while the reverse is true for La Niña years. Hovmöller plots for OLR and zonal wind at 850 hPa and 200 hPa show eastward, westward propagating and stationary features over the Indian Ocean. It was observed that the propagating features were absent during strong El Niño years. Based on the Hovmöller results, it is observed that the convective oscillations over the Tanzanian coast have some of the characteristic features of intraseasonal oscillations occurring elsewhere in the tropics.  相似文献   

2.
Summary Observational data are used to explore the relationship between surface air temperature anomaly gradients and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The meridional temperature anomaly gradient across Eurasia during January directed towards equator (pole) is a very good precursor of subsequent excess (deficient) Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). This gradient directed towards equator (pole) indicates below (above) normal blocking activity over Eurasia, which leads to less (more) than normal southward penetration of dry and cold mid latitude westerlies over the Indian monsoon region, which ultimately strengthens (weakens) the normal monsoon circulation. These findings suggest a mechanism for the weakening of relationship between El Niño and ISMR.Though there is a strong fundamental association between El Niño (warm ENSO) and deficient Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), this relationship was weak during the period 1921–1940 and the recent decade (1991–1998). During the El Niño years of 1921–1940 and 1901–1998, the meridional temperature anomaly gradient across Eurasia (Eurasian forcing) during January was directed towards equator. On the other hand, during the El Niño years of 1901–1920 and 1941–1990 this gradient was directed towards pole. Thus during 1921–1940 and 1991–1998, the adverse impact of El Niño on Indian monsoon was reduced by the favorable Eurasian forcing resulting in the weak association between El Niño and ISMR. This finding disagrees with the hypothesis of winter warming over the Eurasian continent as the reason for the observed weakening of this relationship during recent decade.  相似文献   

3.
The Paraná-Plata basin is the second largest hydrological basin in South America and is of great importance for the countries of the region (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay). The present study focuses on the long-term trends in basin-scale precipitation with special emphasis on the role of distribution changes in extreme large-scale precipitation events and on the characteristics and evolution of ENSO teleconnections over the last 50 years. First, we defined a Paraná-Plata basin total precipitation index (PTPI) as the precipitations spatially averaged over the hydrological basin. On interannual time scales, such an index is mainly representative of anomalous monsoon precipitations in the northern part of the basin and large convective precipitation anomalies in the center of the basin (Paraguay-southern Brazil-Uruguay-northern Argentina) typical of the canonical ENSO teleconnection pattern. Our major findings clearly highlight a positive trend in yearly averaged PTPI mainly from the late 1960s to the early 1980s with a strong dependence from month-to-month. The largest precipitation increase is observed from November to May in southern Brazil and Argentina. A close examination of PTPI distributions during the two halves of the period 1950–2001 shows that the changes in the mean state from 1950–1975 to 1976–2001 result from significant changes in each calendar month mean state and in the tails of the PTPI anomaly distributions in May with lesser and weaker large-scale dry events and stronger large-scale wet events. Further studies will be needed to assess whether the observed trend in large-scale extreme precipitation conditions can be related to natural climate variability or anthropogenic activities and whether it is associated to changes in local/regional extreme events. The stronger wet conditions in different months seem to be associated to changes in ENSO characteristics (amplitude, propagation, spatial structure, ...) since the 1982–1983 El Niño. Indeed, spatial ENSO teleconnections (stronger in November and April–May) have greatly evolved from 1950–1975 to 1976–2001. Moreover, we demonstrate that there is a strong modulation and displacement of the teleconnection patterns from one event to another, impeding the definition of robust statistical relationship between ENSO and precipitation in the Paraná-Plata basin (except maybe over a very limited area near the common border between Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil). Finally, the non-antisymmetrical patterns of precipitation between El Niño and La Niña conditions and the non-linear relationship between precipitation and either Niño3.4 or Niño1+2 sea surface temperature indices show that linear statistical forecast systems are actually of very limited use for impact predictions on society on a local or regional scale.  相似文献   

4.
Tree-ring reconstructed rainfall variability in Zimbabwe   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  
We present the first tree-ring reconstruction of rainfall in tropical Africa using a 200-year regional chronology based on samples of Pterocarpus angolensis from Zimbabwe. The regional chronology is significantly correlated with summer rainfall (November–February) from 1901 to 1948, and the derived reconstruction explains 46% of the instrumental rainfall variance during this period. The reconstruction is well correlated with indices of the El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), and national maize yields. An aridity trend in instrumental rainfall beginning in about 1960 is partially reproduced in the reconstruction, and similar trends are evident in the nineteenth century. A decadal-scale drought reconstructed from 1882 to 1896 matches the most severe sustained drought during the instrumental period (1989–1995), and is confirmed in part by documentary evidence. An even more severe drought is indicated from 1859 to 1868 in both the tree-ring and documentary data, but its true magnitude is uncertain. A 6-year wet period at the turn of the nineteenth century (1897–1902) exceeds any wet episode during the instrumental era. The reconstruction exhibits spectral power at ENSO, decadal and multi-decadal frequencies. Composite analysis of global sea surface temperature during unusually wet and dry years also suggests a linkage between reconstructed rainfall and ENSO.  相似文献   

5.
Summary This paper presents the results of the Florida State University atmospheric general circulation model that addresses the impact of sea surface temperature anomalies on an El Niño year. Northern Hemisphere winter season simulation. Specifically, our interest is in the simulation of seasonal winter monsoonal rainfall, the planetary scale divergent motions and the westerly wind anomalies of an El Niño year.The El Niño episode of 1982–1983 was interesting due to its higher than average amplitude and its overall evolution. By late 1982 the anomalous circulations associated with the sea surface temperature forcing had begun to take shape even though the anomalies did not attain their peak amplitude until February 1983. The atmosphere-ocean teleconnections set up a strong pattern of geopotential height anomalies during the Northern Hemisphere winter that coincides with El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.Wallace and Gutzler (1981) defined a Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern index based on data from within this region. The El Niño episode of 1982–1983 has been shown to be strong via the PNA Index and illustrates an importance for climate models to correctly simulate these teleconnections. The importance of the forced anomalies can be seen in the long-range forecasting of conditions over North America as well as the winter monsoon intensity and location.In this study, we utilize a general circulation model with a resolution of triangular truncation at 42 waves to investigate the effects of prescribed sea surface temperature anomalies. We are able to simulate the majority of the large-scale atmospheric response although on regional climatic scales some phase shifts seem apparent.With 7 Figures  相似文献   

6.
Summary This study investigates the impacts of five recent ENSO events on southern Africa, the associated circulation anomalies and the ability of an atmospheric general circulation model (UKMO HadAM3) to represent these impacts when forced by observed sea-surface temperature (SST). It is found that the model is most successful for the 1997/8 El Niño but does less well for the 1991/2 and 2002/3 El Niños and the 1995/6 and 1999/00 La Niña events. Diagnostics from the model and NCEP re-analyses suggest that modulations to the Angola low, an important centre of tropical convection over southern Africa during austral summer, are often important for influencing the rainfall impacts of ENSO over subtropical southern Africa. Since the model has difficulty in adequately representing this regional circulation feature and its variability, it has problems in capturing ENSO rainfall impacts over southern Africa. During 1997/8, modulations to the Angola low were weak and Indian Ocean SST forcing strong and the model is relatively successful. The implications of these results for dynamical model based seasonal forecasting of the region are discussed.Current affiliation: CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, Bangalore, India.  相似文献   

7.
The potential for the mean climate of the tropical Pacific to shift to more El Niño-like conditions as a result of human induced climate change is subject to a considerable degree of uncertainty. The complexity of the feedback processes, the wide range of responses of different atmosphere–ocean global circulation models (AOGCMs) and difficulties with model simulation of present day El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO), all complicate the picture. By examining the components of the climate-change response that projects onto the model pattern of ENSO variability in 20 AOGCMs submitted to the coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP), it is shown that large-scale coupled atmosphere–ocean feedbacks associated with the present day ENSO also operate on longer climate-change time scales. By linking the realism of the simulation of present day ENSO variability in the models to their patterns of future mean El Niño-like or La Niña-like climate change, it is found that those models that have the largest ENSO-like climate change also have the poorest simulation of ENSO variability. The most likely scenario (p=0.59) in a model-skill-weighted histogram of CMIP models is for no trend towards either mean El Niño-like or La Niña-like conditions. However, there remains a small probability (p=0.16) for a change to El Niño-like conditions of the order of one standard El Niño per century in the 1% per year CO2 increase scenario.  相似文献   

8.
Observations indicated that for the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) there have been eastward displacements of the zonal wind stress (WS) anomalies and surface heat flux (short wave heat flux and latent heat flux) anomalies during El Niño episodes in the 1981–1995 regime relative to the earlier regime of 1961–1975 (without corresponding displacements during La Niña episodes). Our numerical experiments with the Zebiak–Cane coupled model generally reproduced such displacements when the model climatological fields were replaced by the observed climatologies [of sea surface temperature (SST), surface WS and surface wind atmospheric divergence] and simulated climatologies (of oceanic surface layer currents and associated upwelling) for the 1981–1995 regime. Sensitivity tests indicated that the background atmospheric state played a much more important role than the background ocean state in producing the displacements, which enhanced the asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña in the later regime. The later regime climatology state resulted in the eastward shifts in the ENSO system (WS and SST) only during El Niño, through the eastward shift of the atmosphere convergence heating rate in the coupled model. The ENSO period and ENSO predictability were also enhanced in the coupled model under the later regime climatology. That the change in the mean state of the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean after the mid 1970s could have produced the observed changes in ENSO properties is consistent with our findings.  相似文献   

9.
两个典型ENSO季节演变模态及其与我国东部降水的联系   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
宗海锋 《大气科学》2017,41(6):1264-1283
本文根据1950~2014年月平均海温和大气环流资料以及中国160站降水等资料,利用扩展经验正交函数（EEOF）分析、相关分析以及合成分析等方法,分析了太平洋海温季节演变的主导模态,并探讨了各模态与中国东部降水和东亚环流季节变异的关系及其联系的物理过程。结果表明,ENSO（El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation）季节演变存在2个主导模态,包含4种类型:El Ni?o持续型、La Ni?a持续型、La Ni?a转El Ni?o型和El Ni?o转La Ni?a型。发现不同模态和类型的ENSO季节变化过程我国东部降水距平的分布和强度都有明显差异。El Ni?o持续型和El Ni?o转La Ni?a型,冬春季和初夏均处在El Ni?o背景下,降水异常分布存在一定共性,但盛夏和秋季分别受El Ni?o和La Ni?a影响,降水异常分布差异十分明显,前者雨带北跳慢、位置偏南而后者雨带北跳快、位置偏北。La Ni?a持续型和La Ni?a转El Ni?o型也是如此,冬春季和初夏降水异常分布大致相似,但盛夏和秋季分别受La Ni?a和El Ni?o影响,前者雨带北跳快、位置偏北而后者雨带北跳慢、位置偏南。因此,利用ENSO做我国降水的气候预测时,不能只着眼于前期冬季El Ni?o或La Ni?a事件,还应考虑其未来演变所属的可能模态和类型。对他们之间联系的物理过程分析表明,不同ENSO季节演变模态和类型主要通过影响西太平洋副热带高压以及西风带经向型/纬向型环流调整及伴随的低纬暖湿水汽输送以及中高纬冷空气活动变化来影响我国东部降水。其中,西太平洋菲律宾群岛附近异常反气旋（或气旋）、赤道Walker环流和北半球Hadley环流分别是联系ENSO与西太平洋副热带高压活动和东亚西风带经向型/纬向型环流的重要环节。  相似文献   

10.
We document the characteristic time scales of variability for seven climate indices whose time-dependent behavior is sensitive to some aspect of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO sensitivity arises from the location of these long-term records on the periphery of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Three of the indices are derived principally from historical sources, three others consist of tree-ring reconstructions (one of summer temperature, and the other two of winter rainfall), and one is an annual record of oxygen isotopic composition for a high-elevation glacier in Peru. Five of the seven indices sample at least portions of the Medieval Warm Period (~ A.D. 950 to 1250).Time series spectral analysis was used to identify the major time scales of variability among the different indices. We focus on two principal time scales: a high frequency band (~ 2–10 yr), which comprises most of the variability found in the modern record of ENSO activity, and a low frequency band to highlight variations on decadal to century time scales (11 <P < 150 yr). This last spectral band contains variability on time scales that are of general interest with respect to possible changes in large-scale air-sea exchanges. A technique called evolutive spectral analysis (ESA) is used to ascertain how stable each spectral peak is in time. Coherence and phase spectra are also calculated among the different indices over each full common period, and following a 91-yr window through time to examine whether the relationships change.In general, spectral power on time scales of ~ 2–6 yr is statistically significant and persists throughout most of the time intervals sampled by the different indices. Assuming that the ENSO phenomenon is the source of much of the variability at these time scales, this indicates that ENSO has been an important part of interannual climatic variations over broad areas of the circum-Pacific region throughout the last millennium. Significant coherence values were found for El Niño and reconstructed Sierra Nevada winter precipitation at ~ 2–4 yr throughout much of their common record (late 1500s to present) and between 6 and 7 yr from the mid-18th to the early 20th century.At decadal time scales each record generally tends to exhibit significant spectral power over different periods at different times. Both the Quelccaya Ice Cap 18O series and the Quinn El Niño event record exhibit significant spectral power over frequencies ~ 35 to 45 yr; however, there is low coherence between these two series at those frequencies over their common record. The Sierra Nevada winter rainfall reconstruction exhibits consistently strong variability at periods of ~ 30–60 yr.  相似文献   

11.
Summary Two lines of research into climate change and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) converge on the conclusion that changes in ENSO statistics occur as a response to global climate (temperature) fluctuations. One approach focuses on the statistics of temperature fluctuations interpreted within the framework of random walks. The second is based on the discovery of correlation between the recurrence frequency of El Niño and temperature change, while developing physical arguments to explain several phenomena associated with changes in El Niño frequency. Consideration of both perspectives leads to greater confidence in, and guidance for, the physical interpretation of the relationship between ENSO and global climate change. Topics considered include global dynamics of ENSO, ENSO triggers, and climate prediction and predictability.Revised November 14, 2002; accepted November 28, 2002 Published online: June 12, 2003  相似文献   

12.
The main goal of this study is to determine the oceanic regions corresponding to variability in African rainfall and seasonal differences in the atmospheric teleconnections. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) has been applied in order to extract the dominant patterns of linear covariability. An ensemble of six simulations with the global atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4, forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice boundary variability, is used in order to focus on the SST-related part of African rainfall variability. Our main finding is that the boreal summer rainfall (June–September mean) over Africa is more affected by SST changes than in boreal winter (December–March mean). In winter, there is a highly significant link between tropical African rainfall and Indian Ocean and eastern tropical Pacific SST anomalies, which is closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, long-term changes are found to be associated with SST changes in the Indian and tropical Atlantic Oceans, thus, showing that the tropical Atlantic plays a critical role in determining the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Since ENSO is less in summer, the tropical Pacific and the Indian Oceans are less important for African rainfall. The African summer monsoon is strongly influenced by SST variations in the Gulf of Guinea, with a response of opposite sign over the Sahelian zone and the Guinean coast region. SST changes in the subtropical and extratropical oceans mostly take place on decadal time scales and are responsible for low-frequency rainfall fluctuations over West Africa. The modelled teleconnections are highly consistent with the observations. The agreement for most of the teleconnection patterns is remarkable and suggests that the modelled rainfall anomalies serve as suitable predictors for the observed changes.  相似文献   

13.
A. Wu  W. W. Hsieh 《Climate Dynamics》2003,21(7-8):719-730
Nonlinear interdecadal changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon are investigated using several tools: a nonlinear canonical correlation analysis (NLCCA) method based on neural networks, a hybrid coupled model, and the delayed oscillator theory. The leading NLCCA mode between the tropical Pacific wind stress (WS) and sea surface temperature (SST) reveals notable interdecadal changes of ENSO behaviour before and after the mid 1970s climate regime shift, with greater nonlinearity found during 1981–99 than during 1961–75. Spatial asymmetry (for both SST and WS anomalies) between warm El Niño and cool La Niña events was significantly enhanced in the later period. During 1981–99, the location of the equatorial easterly anomalies was unchanged from the earlier period, but in the opposite ENSO phase, the westerly anomalies were shifted eastward by up to 25°. According to the delayed oscillator theory, such an eastward shift would lengthen the duration of the warm events by up to 45%, but leave the duration of the cool events unchanged. Supporting evidence was found from a hybrid coupled model built with the Lamont dynamical ocean model coupled to a statistical atmospheric model consisting of either the leading NLCCA or CCA mode.  相似文献   

14.
利用1963—2013年Hadley中心月平均海表温度资料,以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,根据两类厄尔尼诺事件发生时北半球冬季赤道太平洋地区海温异常的不同空间分布特征,即赤道中太平洋CP型和东太平洋EP型海温异常空间分布,从寻找与之相似的空间型角度出发,设计了一组新的海温异常指数I_(CP)和I_(EP)。与以往ENSO指数相比,新指数组I_(CP)和I_(EP)不仅表示了空间上相互独立的海温异常分布,而且在相同的研究时段内,因时间域上相互独立而能更好地表征和区分两类El Ni?o/La Ni?a事件。据此,采用该新指数组探讨了与中部型和东部型海温异常事件相关的热带太平洋的主要海气耦合特征。结果表明,与传统的东部型El Ni?o事件发生时最大暖海温中心位于赤道东太平洋地区不同,中部型El Ni?o事件,异常增暖中心位于赤道中太平洋。中部型时异常Walker环流的上升支向西偏移,异常降水集中于热带中太平洋,不似东部型时异常限定于赤道东太平洋地区。不论哪类事件,海洋性大陆均可受到影响,即CP或EP型El Ni?o发生时,海洋性大陆区域降水偏少。但比较而言,中部型ENSO对海洋性大陆区域的影响更大。  相似文献   

15.
Maintaining a multi-model database over a generation or more of model development provides an important framework for assessing model improvement. Using control integrations, we compare the simulation of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and its extratropical impact, in models developed for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report with models developed in the late 1990s [the so-called Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-2 (CMIP2) models]. The IPCC models tend to be more realistic in representing the frequency with which ENSO occurs, and they are better at locating enhanced temperature variability over the eastern Pacific Ocean. When compared with reanalyses, the IPCC models have larger pattern correlations of tropical surface air temperature than do the CMIP2 models during the boreal winter peak phase of El Niño. However, for sea-level pressure and precipitation rate anomalies, a clear separation in performance between the two vintages of models is not as apparent. The strongest improvement occurs for the modelling groups whose CMIP2 model tended to have the lowest pattern correlations with observations. This has been checked by subsampling the multi-century IPCC simulations in a manner to be consistent with the single 80-year time segment available from CMIP2. Our results suggest that multi-century integrations may be required to statistically assess model improvement of ENSO. The quality of the El Niño precipitation composite is directly related to the fidelity of the boreal winter precipitation climatology, highlighting the importance of reducing systematic model error. Over North America distinct improvement of El Niño forced boreal winter surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, and precipitation rate anomalies to occur in the IPCC models. This improvement is directly proportional to the skill of the tropical El Niño forced precipitation anomalies.  相似文献   

16.
In this modelling study, the teleconnections of ENSO are studied using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), HadAM3. The influence of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) remote from the tropical Pacific but teleconnected with ENSO is investigated. Composite cycles of El Niño and La Niña SSTs are created and imposed on HadAM3. These SSTs are imposed in different areas, with climatological SSTs elsewhere, in order to find the influences of SSTs in different regions. It is found that most of the reproducible response to ENSO is forced directly from the tropical Pacific before the peak of the event. However, during the peak and decay of ENSO, remote SSTs become increasingly influential throughout the tropics (at the 98% significance level). This could lead to extended ENSO-related predictability due to the memory of the remote oceans. The Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent SSTs are found to be particularly influential. Indian Ocean SSTAs dampen the teleconnections from the tropical Pacific and force the atmosphere above the tropical Atlantic. More generally, when a tropical SSTA is imposed, atmospheric anomalies are forced locally with anomalies of the opposite sign to the west. Some of the reproducible response to ENSO in the tropical Atlantic is forced, not directly from the tropical Pacific but from the Indian ocean, which in turn is forced by the tropical Pacific. Subsequently, delayed SSTAs in the tropical Atlantic damp the local response and force the atmosphere above the tropical Pacific in the opposite manner.  相似文献   

17.
Summary The impact of pronounced positive and negative sea surface temperature (STT) anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the boreal winter season is investigated. This includes both the impact on the seasonal mean flow and on the intraseasonal variability on synoptic time scales. Moreover, the interaction between the transient fluctuations on these times scales and the mean circulation is examined. Both data from an ensemble of five simulations with the ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model at a horizontal resolution of T42 each covering the period from 1979 through 1992 and operational analyses from ECMWF for the corresponding period are examined. In each of the simulations observed SSTs for the period of investigation are given as lower boundary forcing, but different atmospheric initial conditions are prescribed.The simulations with ECHAM3 reveal a distinct impact of the pronounced SST-anomalies in the tropical Pacific on the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during El Niño as well as during La Niña events. These changes in the atmospheric circulation, which are found to be highly significant in the Pacific/North American as well as in the Atlantic/European region, are consistent with the essential results obtained from the analyses. The pronounced SST-anomalies in the tropical Pacific lead to changes in the mean circulation, which are characterized by typical circulation patterns. These changes in the mean circulation are accompanied by marked variations of the activity of the transient fluctuations on synoptic time scales, that are changes in both the kinetic energy on these time scales and the atmospheric transports of momentum and heat accomplished by the short baroclinic waves. The synoptic disturbances, on the other hand, play also an important role in controlling the changes in the mean circulation associated with the ENSO phenomenon. They maintain these typical circulation patterns via barotropic, but counteract them via baroclinic processes.The hypothesis of an impact of the ENSO phenomenon in the Atlantic/European region can be supported. As the determining factor the intensification (reduction) of the Aleutian low and the simultaneous reduction (intensification) of the Icelandic low during El Niño and during La Niña events respectively, is identified. The changes in the intensity of the Aleutian low during the ENSO-events are accompanied by an alteration of the transport of momentum caused by the short baroclinic waves over the North American continent in such a way that the changes in the intensity of the Icelandic low during El Niño as well as during La Niña events are maintained.With 16 Figures  相似文献   

18.
Sea surface temperature associations with the late Indian summer monsoon   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Recent gridded and historical data are used in order to assess the relationships between interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns over the Indian and Pacific oceans. Interannual variability of ISM rainfall and dynamical indices for the traditional summer monsoon season (June–September) are strongly influenced by rainfall and circulation anomalies observed during August and September, or the late Indian summer monsoon (LISM). Anomalous monsoons are linked to well-defined LISM rainfall and large-scale circulation anomalies. The east-west Walker and local Hadley circulations fluctuate during the LISM of anomalous ISM years. LISM circulation is weakened and shifted eastward during weak ISM years. Therefore, we focus on the predictability of the LISM. Strong (weak) (L)ISMs are preceded by significant positive (negative) SST anomalies in the southeastern subtropical Indian Ocean, off Australia, during boreal winter. These SST anomalies are mainly linked to south Indian Ocean dipole events, studied by Besera and Yamagata (2001) and to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. These SST anomalies are highly persistent and affect the northwestward translation of the Mascarene High from austral to boreal summer. The southeastward (northwestward) shift of this subtropical high associated with cold (warm) SST anomalies off Australia causes a weakening (strengthening) of the whole monsoon circulation through a modulation of the local Hadley cell during the LISM. Furthermore, it is suggested that the Mascarene High interacts with the underlying SST anomalies through a positive dynamical feedback mechanism, maintaining its anomalous position during the LISM. Our results also explain why a strong ISM is preceded by a transition in boreal spring from an El Niño to a La Niña state in the Pacific and vice versa. An El Niño event and the associated warm SST anomalies over the southeastern Indian Ocean during boreal winter may play a key role in the development of a strong ISM by strengthening the local Hadley circulation during the LISM. On the other hand, a developing La Niña event in boreal spring and summer may also enhance the east–west Walker circulation and the monsoon as demonstrated in many previous studies.  相似文献   

19.
ENSO Events Recorded in the Guliya Ice Core   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  
Based on the ENSO chronology and climatic information recovered from the Guliya ice core in the Tibetan Plateau, China, the ENSO teleconnection was investigated. The results showed that the negative precipitation anomalies are significantly associated with El Niño years but poorly with negative anomaly of 18O. Thus, the ice core records can be used as an archive of extremely global climate anomalies such as ENSO events.  相似文献   

20.
In this paper, I first conduct a preliminary analysis of monthly rainfall data from West Kalimantan, Indonesia that indicates that (1) dry periods periodically occur in this otherwise humid environment; (2) these dry periods are often linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events; and (3) the intensity of these ENSO linked dry periods has been increasing over the past two or three decades. I then examine the economic costs of the 1991 dry period to residents of several small villages near Gunung Palung National Park. Costs I considered included reduced durian fruit harvest, loss of coffee gardens, delayed rice crops, increased water hauling labor, lost wages in the forest product industry, and increased health problems. The total cost was estimated to be between approximately one-quarter and one-half of annual township income. These results of this economic ground truthing indicate that even in one of the wettest places of the world, droughts occur and can have serious welfare consequences. To the extent that the increasing intensity of these droughts may be linked to climate change, prudence dictates that policy and decision makers should use these results to plan accordingly.  相似文献   

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