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活断层的地质研究及其在工程安全性评价的意义 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
活断层是导致多种地质灾害，特别是地震、崩塌、滑坡、地表断错的重要根源，对工程设施具有重大的破坏作用。因此，活断层的研究就成为地震危险及工程安全性评价的重要内容。为确保工程安全，加强对工程活断层评价是人类战胜自然灾害的一个重要方面。本文着重讨论了三个问题（一）工程评价中的活断层含义：工程评价中的活断层是指晚更新世（１０万年）以来，特别是全新世（１万年）以来有过位移活动，且在未来工程使用期内仍有可能活动的断层，这类断层往往是沿袭先存断层面发生突然错动或缓慢蠕动使上覆第四纪新沉积物及其它地物标志发生相对位移。（二）活断层的地质研究包括（１）断层出露的位置、规模及其活动时代；（２）断层运动性质及活动方式；（３）断层几何配置；（４）断层滑动速率；（５）断层活动的分段性；（６）断层活动潜在地震能力的判定；（７）在未来一定时期内断层可能位错量的预测等７个方面。（三）活断层在工程安全性评价中的意义：随着我国国民经济建设的发展，大型工程设施将愈来愈多，如超高建筑，大型桥梁、隧道，大中型水库、核电站、高速公路、地下铁道、国际机场、重要广播、电视发射台、重要通讯枢纽，大型化工厂等。为确保工程的安全，活断层对工程的影响和破坏作用是 相似文献
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分析了1976年以来甘肃省年度地震重点危险区预测情报及效果，探讨了与此有关的问题，认为：（1）19．4％的对应率反了目前甘肃1年尺度地震预测的真实状况；（2）提高预测水平的关键是对某一地区地震活动状态与前兆变人绵学玫研究和比较符合实际的认识。 相似文献
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提出了提取快，慢剪切波初动的线性变换方法，该方法的优点是：（１）提高了识别有用信号的分辨率；（２）充分利用了三分向记录的剪切波序列信息；（３）能识别ＳＰ转换波。与其它识别方法对比处理了北京数字化地震记录的一个小震资料，其识别和测定结果一致，说明了该方法的适用性。 相似文献
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在实际的地震预测预报中，经常会遇到这样一个问题，即；当某一地区发生了一次中强地震或强震之后，我们都会提出这样的问题：原震区或其它新的地区还会不会发生中强地震，或强震？！这是必须要认真给予回答的、不能回避的重要问题。根据以往大量震例研究表明：一次中强地震或强震之后，异常一般按四种趋势发展：（１）部份异常尚未结束并仍在平稳发展；（２）部份异常不仅未结束，异常幅度反而有加大的趋势；（３）部份异常于震前结束，震后又出现新异常；（４）部份震前无异常，震后出现新的异常。本文以１９７３年炉霍７．６级地震、１９７６年松潘７．２级地震、１９７６年盐宁６．７级地震、１９８９年巴塘６．７级和１９６７年小金６．６级等地震为例，从异常形态入手，研究强震前、后异常时、空特征的演化，前兆敏感点、后效异常及与未来震中地区可能存在的关系，提出了判别震后效应与新区地震异常指标的方法。 相似文献
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地球物理学中物理学应用的可喜进展 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
为庆祝爱因斯坦奇迹年100周年，联合国教科文组织（UNESCO）把2005年定为“世界物理年”。100年前爱因斯坦还是瑞士伯尔尼市专利局的一个小职员时，就已经发表了3篇足以永远改变物理学界的论文，包括：（1）提出狭义相对论并证明了质能方程（E=mc^2）；（2）用普朗克当时新提出的尚处于争论中的光子概念（E-bv）解释了光电效应；（3）运用当时还远不能为世人所接受的玻尔兹曼分子动力学（E=kT）研究了布朗运动的宏观现象。 相似文献
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本文指出了"信息确定性"所涉及的信息的不可 修改性、信息"保真性"是认识观念的重大变革。 以取消数量稳定性限制条件,得出了非线性不稳 定具有特殊性信息及其周期性,并可解释翁文波 的"可公度"法是运用了特殊性信息的特殊规律, 在物质演化问题上不能将数量的一般规律拓广至 特殊性信息中;由此涉及了当代科学没有解决物 质演化的"时间"、特殊性、非惯性系及其数量分 析伪造信息等问题。信息的客观存在性和不可修 改性,已实质上表明了将近代的"信息科学"的 信息分析等同于当代科学的数量处理是认识上的 误解。即"信息"不能等同于"数量"。 相似文献
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Model performance evaluation for real-time flood forecasting has been conducted using various criteria. Although the coefficient of efficiency (CE) is most widely used, we demonstrate that a model achieving good model efficiency may actually be inferior to the naïve (or persistence) forecasting, if the flow series has a high lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient. We derived sample-dependent and AR model-dependent asymptotic relationships between the coefficient of efficiency and the coefficient of persistence (CP) which form the basis of a proposed CE–CP coupled model performance evaluation criterion. Considering the flow persistence and the model simplicity, the AR(2) model is suggested to be the benchmark model for performance evaluation of real-time flood forecasting models. We emphasize that performance evaluation of flood forecasting models using the proposed CE–CP coupled criterion should be carried out with respect to individual flood events. A single CE or CP value derived from a multi-event artifactual series by no means provides a multi-event overall evaluation and may actually disguise the real capability of the proposed model. 相似文献
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The poissonian and non-fractal characters generally exhibited by the most intense natural events do not allow the application of the current exponential and power law long-term hazard predictive models, and have suggested searching for a new model. This has been set up also taking into account that the random sequence (representing disorder) of these events is linked to the duration of the stationary small ones (representing order). The model, proposed in terms of the orbit of a simple non-linear hazard function, simulates the large eruptions of Vesuvius quite well and permits estimation of the next subplinian eruption to occur there around A.D. 2030. A short range forecasting model based on the tidal triggering is also provided and discussed. When large tidally triggered M2 term in the earthquakes at Vesuvius become significant at the 0.01 level the proposed long-term hazard model will yield a more accurate estimate of the above prediction. 相似文献
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Francesca Pianosi Andrea Castelletti Leonardo Mancusi Elisabetta Garofalo 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2524-2534
Despite human is an increasingly significant component of the hydrologic cycle in many river basins, most hydrologic models are still developed to accurately reproduce the natural processes and ignore the effect of human activities on the watershed response. This results in non‐stationary model forecast errors and poor predicting performance every time these models are used in non‐pristine watersheds. In the last decade, the representation of human activities in hydrological models has been extensively studied. However, mathematical models integrating the human and the natural dimension are not very common in hydrological applications and nearly unknown in the day‐to‐day practice. In this paper, we propose a new simple data‐driven flow forecast correction method that can be used to simultaneously tackle forecast errors from structural, parameter and input uncertainty, and errors that arise from neglecting human‐induced alterations in conceptual rainfall–runoff models. The correction system is composed of two layers: (i) a classification system that, based on the current flow condition, detects whether the source of error is natural or human induced and (ii) a set of error correction models that are alternatively activated, each tailored to the specific source of errors. As a case study, we consider the highly anthropized Aniene river basin in Italy, where a flow forecasting system is being established to support the operation of a hydropower dam. Results show that, even by using very basic methods, namely if‐then classification rules and linear correction models, the proposed methodology considerably improves the forecasting capability of the original hydrological model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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地震是破坏性很大的自然灾害,世界上没有一个地方比中国和东亚沿海地区经历过更多的地震。同样的,干旱、洪水以及其它气候灾害也是世界上屡见不鲜的事件。本文提出了将这两种地球物理现象联系起来的理论。 早在80年代初期,便已提出气候变化的决定性的分析模式。该模式与古气候时间序列相符合,并可用于预报,它成功地经受过几年的检验。早先对该模式在地质时标上的核实,在这里我们将之延伸到近代历史。并且根据万有引力常数(G)随时间变化的可能性提出了关于气候变化原因的解释。G的变化意味着构造活动性(如地震)与气候特性(如由模式所表示的全球温度变化)的同步变化。因此,该模式也为地震预报提供了希望。 作者提出了解释在某一时间段内不同地区地震活动性的交替的理论。该理论通过对中国廿世纪发生的里克特震级大于或等于6的许多地震的检验。在小比例尺地形制图精度以及在震中定位的低灵敏度范围内,所获结果是令人鼓舞的 相似文献
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An extensive laboratory study was conducted to measure the interfacial tension (IFT) between CO2 and brine consisting in equal molal concentrations of NaCl and CaCl2. The experiments were repeated at various pressures, temperatures and salinities that are representative of conditions prevailing during CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers. The dependence of CO2/brine IFT on pressure and temperature is similar to that previously reported for the systems: CO2/NaCl solution and CO2/CaCl2 solution. CO2/brine IFT increases linearly with water salinity and the magnitude of this increase was found equal to the sum of the individual CO2/NaCl solution and CO2/CaCl2 solution IFT increments, indicating a strong additive effect on IFT when the brine is composed of various salts. 相似文献
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Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Any effective volcanic risk mitigation strategy requires a scientific assessment of the future evolution of a volcanic system and its eruptive behavior. Some consider the onus should be on volcanologists to provide simple but emphatic deterministic forecasts. This traditional way of thinking, however, does not deal with the implications of inherent uncertainties, both aleatoric and epistemic, that are inevitably present in observations, monitoring data, and interpretation of any natural system. In contrast to deterministic predictions, probabilistic eruption forecasting attempts to quantify these inherent uncertainties utilizing all available information to the extent that it can be relied upon and is informative. As with many other natural hazards, probabilistic eruption forecasting is becoming established as the primary scientific basis for planning rational risk mitigation actions: at short-term (hours to weeks or months), it allows decision-makers to prioritize actions in a crisis; and at long-term (years to decades), it is the basic component for land use and emergency planning. Probabilistic eruption forecasting consists of estimating the probability of an eruption event and where it sits in a complex multidimensional time–space–magnitude framework. In this review, we discuss the key developments and features of models that have been used to address the problem. 相似文献
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JANUSZ ŻELAZINSKI 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):263-270
ABSTRACT Geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) theory has been applied for the estimation of the parameters of two conceptual models: a linear cascade model and a Laurenson-type model. Conceptual models, especially the linear cascade model, are more convenient for operational forecasting than the original GIUH model. A single linear reservoir model is suggested, with limited storage to represent the subsurface flow component. Subsurface flow is significant in Polish mountainous river catchments. Preliminary results of applying the model to operational flood forecasting are described. 相似文献
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Summary A report is presented on the use of the method, suggested by H. and K. Lettau, for the purposes of computing short-wave radiation fluxes and the heat function, connected with them, in atmospheric models, used for short-range numerical weather forecasting.Dedicated to 90th Birthday of Professor Frantiek Fiala 相似文献