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地震活动信息熵在地震危险区判定中的研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
震例和实验指出，大震的孕育准备过程中，总是要出现小震活动时空分布随机性减少及有序性增大的过程。本文从现代统计物理学熵的概念出发，系统定义了反映地震活动分析有序性大小的信息熵，并通过分析新疆乌恰、西克尔、乌什及北天山玛纳斯地区的地震资料，探讨信息熵的动态变化与强震发生时间的关系及信息熵值的空间分布与强震发生地点的关系。 相似文献
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历次中强地震发生前,孕震区附近的小震活动在时间上和空间上会出现从无序到有序的演化过程,反映了小震活动序列中隐含着许多与未来强震发生有关的重要信息。本文选取了河南及邻区小震活动资料,从系统的观点,利用地震活动信息熵值的变化探讨孕震体前后的某种整体行为。通过资料计算分析,河南及邻区中强地震前信息熵值的变化较为明显,中强地震一般发生在高熵值过后的下降段或恢复段,熵值的时序变化与地震序列具有较好的对应性;不同的地质构造地震活动差异,对熵值曲线的形态细节变化存在着一定影响,但对熵值总体变化趋势影响不大。 相似文献
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闽粤海外地震集中分布于晚更新世以来活动最为强烈的近岸海域断裂靠近南澳和泉州的两个地段.1918和1906年南北两段分别发生过7.3和6.1级地震.笔者以这两次地震的仪器测定参数为准,通过宏观资料对比,参考地震背景,估定各早期地震的参数,编制了历史地震序列表.南、北两区地震活动基本同步,所记最大地震均在7.3级左右.大震以前,地震活动常有增强.主震后余震频繁,但强余震多发生在1至几年以后.15世纪晚期以来,出现过两次地震活动高潮:第一次在1600年前后,两区各发生43级以上地震8次,其中南区最强为6.7级,北区约7.5级;第二次在19世纪初,南区地震18次,最强达7.3级,北区仅6.1和5.5级地震各1次.1942年以来,整个地带极少中强震活动.究竟系减震作用影响,还是北区正在酝酿较强地震,值得深入研究. 相似文献
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A. V. Klyuchevskii 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2010,46(4):306-316
Variations in annual numbers of earthquakes (the earthquake occurrence rate) that hit the Baikal region and Mongolia during
the period from 1964 through 2001 are studied in this work. Correlation analysis of the different-length series of annual
numbers N of earthquakes of representative energy classes makes it possible to reveal the effects of synchronous changes in the earthquake
occurrence rate in seven regions and eleven areas in the Mongolia-Baikal region, located far apart. The analysis of the shock
occurrence rate revealed episodes of short-period synchronization of seismic processes in the Mongolia-Baikal region at the
end of the 1960s, early in the 1980s, and in the middle of the 1990s. The episode of synchronization in the earthquake occurrence
rate in the early 1980s is observed in all the territories under study, but the episode at the end of the 1960s is less distinctly
seen in Mongolia and is revealed mainly in the data series with a length of three years. The synchronization in the seismicity
in Mongolia and in the southern PreBaikal region in 1995 requires further investigations, involving the dynamic parameters
of the earthquake sources. The observed synchronism in the annual number of earthquakes indicates that the seismic processes
become active nearly simultaneously over the huge territory of the Mongolia-Baikal region and produce a short-term coherent
change in the shock occurrence rate in the spatial-temporal distribution of the seismicity. The observed spatial and temporal
correlation in the seismicity is a sign of the seismogenic link between the Baikal region and Mongolia. 相似文献
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使用Frankel提出的基于空间光滑地震活动性模型的地震危险性分析方法,选择华南、华北、川滇3个地区的地震记录,比较分析了高斯、幂律和地震分形分布光滑函数3种光滑函数在不同地区的适用性．结果表明,使用交叉验证法可以为高斯光滑函数选取合适的相关距离c值,光滑得到的地震活动性模型能够真实反映研究区域的地震活动特征,根据活动性模型计算得出的峰值加速度(PGA)分布也符合人们对研究区域地震危险性的认识．幂律光滑函数适用于地震活动性较强的地区,且具有容易求取光滑参数的优点．光滑程度较低的幂律光滑函数不适用于地震活动性弱的地区,在该类地区应选择光滑程度较高的高斯光滑函数．地震分形分布光滑函数不适用于地震活动较强且地震活动强度差异较大的地区,其容易过分高估高震级地震对地震危险性的影响,而忽略了低震级地震对地震危险性的贡献．但对于地震活动较弱且地震活动强度差异较小的地区,可使用地震分形分布光滑函数,且同样具有容易求取光滑参数的优点． 相似文献
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Yushou Xie 《地震学报(英文版)》1992,5(3):635-646
The earthquakes offshore Fujian and Guangdong Provinces concentrated along the two segments near Nan’ao in the south and Quanzhou
in the north of the off coast fault, which is very active since the late Pleistocene. In 1918 and 1906, two earthquakes with
magnitudes 7.3 and 6.1 respectively occurred in the south and the north regions. With the instrumentally determined seismic
parameters of these two earthquakes as standards, the author evaluated the parameters of the historical earthquakes by comparing
their macroseismic materials with consideration of the geological background. As a result, chronological tables of historical
earthquakes of the south and the north regions were compiled.
The seismic activity of the two regions synchronized basically, and their strongest recorded earthquakes were both aroundM
s 7.3. Seismic activity usually intensified before the occurrence of strong events. Aftershocks were frequent, but strong aftershocks
usually occurred one to several years after the main shock. Two high tides of seismic activity occurred since the late 15th
century. Around 1600, eight earthquakes each with magnitudes over 4.3 occurred in both of the two regions. The magnitude of
the strongest shock in the south region is 6.7, that in the north region is 7.5. The second high tide occurred at the early
20th century. Among the 18 earthquakes occurred in the south region, one was of magnitude 7.3; whilst only two earthquakes
with magnitudes 6.1 and 5.5 respectively occurred in the north region. Further, medium to strong earthquakes never occurred
since 1942. Whether this is the “mitigation effect” of strong shocks, or a big earthquake is brewing in the north region is
worth intensive study.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 505–515, 1991.
This work is supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation. 相似文献
9.
程万正 《地震学报(英文版)》1994,(Z1)
Ｔｈｅｃｏｍｐｌｅｘｔｅｍｐｏｒａｌｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅｓｏｆｎｏｎ－ｓｉｎｇｌｅｅｘｐｏｎｅｎｔｉａｌａｔｔｅｎｕａｔｉｏｎｏｆＢａｔａｎｇｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｗａｒｍｗｉｔｈＭ６．７Ｗａｎ－ＺｈｅｎｇＣＨＥＮＧ（程万正）（Ｓｅｉｓ... 相似文献
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IntroductionTheearthquakepredictionresearchisanexplorationprocesswhichcarriesonthepredictionofthethreeelementsofearthquake(i.e.time,locationandmagnitude)basedonthescientificobservationandbyrecognizingthelawandessentialityofearthquakeoccurrence(HUANG,1990),ofwhich,thecorrectforecastofthelocationofearthquakeoccurrenceisdirectlyrelatedtothesocialeffectoftheanti-shockanddisasterrelief.Theaccuratejudgmentoftheregionofmacroseismoccurrenceisnotonlyfavorabletocarryoutthepursuingofseismicregimetenden… 相似文献
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熵的原理与地震活动研究 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3
熵是多种学科的一个重要交叉点。熵的原理广泛适用于物理、化学、生物、医学、气象乃至社会经济等科学领域,并已取得了令人注目的成果。本文以熵的基本含意出发,简要地阐述了熵概念的扩展,包括热温熵、信息熵以及条件熵等。将地震孕育过程作为一个复杂的开放系统,基于耗散结构理论的基本思想,为定量描述地震活动时、空、强分布的有序度,引入地震活动熵作为序参量,并将其应用于大地震前后地震活动演变特征的研究。初步结果表明,随着临近大地震的发生,在一定范围内地震活动熵值减小,即地震活动分布状态从无序趋向有序。可以预期,把熵的原理引入地震研究领域必将加深人们对地震发生物理过程本质的认识。同时也将为探索地震预测提供新的思路和新的途径。 相似文献
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对地震活动性进行层次结构分析可划分出不同的地震区带,中国大陆的地震活动可分为9个地震区带,分析各个区带的地震活动性可作出某一活跃期强震发生主体地区的判别,对某一个地震区带的地震活动进行层次结构分析可作出地震危险区预测。用震源面投影图代替点投影的震中分布图可更合理地解释一个构造带上强震的发生过程,更清楚地勾画出未来强震的孕震范围。对强震破裂区闭锁段、背景空区、孕震空区的关系用实测震例进行了解释。 相似文献
14.
Vassilis Karakostas 《Acta Geophysica》2009,57(2):367-386
The spatial distribution of the stress field around a fault, before its failure, depends on the focal mechanism of the ensuing
rupture. In the preseismic stage, the main fault is locked and background seismicity is distributed in the surrounding area
along small faults due to the raise of the stress level. This distribution is well correlated with changes of the stress field,
when these are calculated considering the fault slipping on the opposite sense (back-slip model), before the incoming strong
event. Studies of the seismicity around faults with known geometry, dimensions and slip properties could contribute in the
seismic hazard assessment.
In the present work, the spatio-temporal distribution of the smaller magnitude seismic activity before the occurrence of the
four most recent (1995–2008) strong (M ≥ 6.4) shallow earthquakes in Greece is compared with the stress pattern necessary for the generation of the strong earthquakes.
Studying the annual rate of occurrence it is found that in areas of positive pre-stress changes a sharp increase of the number
of earthquakes is observed several years before the occurrence of the main shock. This increase lasts for a few years and
then for several years before the main shock the occurrence rate declines but usually remains higher than it was before the
sharp increase. Seismicity distribution in the respective areas of negative pre-stress changes shows a rather stable occurrence
rate. 相似文献
15.
THE APPLICATION OF PETROLEUM SEISMIC DATA TO THE BURIED ACTIVE FAULT DETECTION——A CASE STUDY OF ACTIVE FAULTS SURVEYING IN SONGYUAN CITY 
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下载免费PDF全文 Located in the south of the Songliao Basin, Songyuan City is one of the few high seismic intensity regions (Ⅷ degree regions) in Northeast China, where a magnitude 6(3/4) earthquake took place in 1119. Since 2013, many earthquakes of magnitude above 5 have occurred in Chaganhua Town which is 100km southwest of Songyuan. The faults in the study region are almost all in a concealed state and covered by the Quaternary system, therefore, geophysical investigation, drilling and other similar means are required to determine their distribution, occurrence, nature and active period. Many seismic explorations in this region aiming at surveying the oil bearing structure have been conducted by Jilin Oilfield, which provides detailed seismic exploration information for preliminary detection of active faults. In this paper, the main features of petroleum-related seismic data and major methods for extracting tectonic information are presented; on the plain, the trace information of the main structure is extracted by the t0 interface contour map which allows direct reflection of rises and falls of stratal interfaces and the tectonic characteristics of the corresponding geologic period; on the section, the "extending upwards" characteristics of faults are captured by tracing and marking geological phenomena in the reflective standard layer, faults, the surface of unconformity and so on. Under the comprehensive use of the "3D" structure in the interpretation of the results, accurate spatial distribution information of main faults are obtained in the study region, this offers an effective approach to preliminary judgment of the activity of faults in this region. Meanwhile, the active age of the target faults is identified by superimposing the deep and shallow seismic data and integrating with the drilling detection. 相似文献
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目前地震分形计算的方法很多,但各方法或多或少都存在一些问题．本文引入一种地震分形计算的新方法——最小生成树法（minimal spanning tree）,对其算法作了重要的修改,并通过对乌什、乌苏、唐山和海城4个区域震例的研究,得出大震前后地震时空分布多重分形谱由集中变疏张,反映了分形结构复杂性的增加、地震时空分布不均匀性的增加．由点集的数值模拟表明:强震前后多重分形谱变化的物理本质是地震分布由均一到不均一,由简单到复杂的变化过程． 相似文献
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IntroductionEarthquake occurrence is resulted from the movement of the Earth's crust and the fr~re ofrock. It is a phenomenon of instability and self-organized criticality. It is possible that the phenomenon only occurs in non-linear syStem. As a pat of non-linear science, the fractal thatfounded by Mandelbrot in 1977 pioneered a new way tO solve inhomogeneous and complex phenomenon and offered a new tool. Some natural or social phenomena seem difficult to deal withbecause they are disordere… 相似文献
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华北地区强震前的信号震及其预测意义 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
根据对华北地区1970年以来MS≥6地震以前中小地震活动空间图像变化特征的分析, 研究了“信号震”发生的时空特征及其地震活动背景, 由“场-源”关系特征对一般地震进行严格的筛选识别, 从而得出信号震的有关预测指标。 信号震一般发生在强震前的2年之内, 多数发生在15个月内; 信号震与强震的距离不超过200 km, 多数在100 km之内; 震级强度一般为ML4.0～5.3。 信号震一般发生在局部的ML≥4.0地震平静区内, 一般发生在中小地震条带上或条带附近, 在其周围或附近存在中小地震空区。 检验结果表明, 信号震发生后的9个月之内, 其预测概率Pt即超过0.5, Rt值达到0.27; 预测区域半径在距信号震震中100 km之内时, 其发生概率Pd可以达到0.73; 预测强震震级一般为MS≥6.0。 研究表明, 信号震的环境应力值τ0明显高于其他地震, 显示了高应力背景的异常显著性, 它所辐射的地震波中很可能含有未来强震孕震区的大量的本质性信息。 相似文献
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ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｆｐａｔｔｅｒｎｄｙｎａｍｉｃｓｐａｒａｍｅｔｅｒｓｏｆｃｒｕｓｔａｌｄｅｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎｆｉｅｌｄｉｎｓｅｉｓｍｏｇｅｎｉｃｐｒｏｃｅｓｓＳｈｕｏ－ＹｕＺＨＯＵ（周硕愚），ＹｕｎＷＵ（吴云），Ｒｕｏ－ＢｏＷＡＮＧ（王若柏）ａｎｄ... 相似文献
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WANG Hui-lin XU Xiao-feng ZHOU Long-quan ZHANG Xiao-dong SHEN Fan-lua LI Zhi-xiong ZHAN Wei 《地震地质》2016,38(3):631-645
Using double-difference precise location results of seismic S wave data from 2000 to 2012, distribution and variation of dynamic moving average Qs value are imaged in Hainan Island and adjacent regions through seismic attenuation tomography. We explore regional crustal S-wave attenuation characteristics of temporal and spatial variation combined with seismic activity, volcanoes and heat distribution, and GPS baseline changes. The results show that:(1)Attenuation imaging shows that there is a significant lateral heterogeneity in Qs distribution in the study area and the Qs values are high in the central region and low in the north and south regions of Hainan Island. Low-Qs areas are baseically converged to the north of Wangwu-Wenjiao Fault, to the south of Jianfeng-Diaoluo Fault, and to the east of Puqian-Qinglan Fault. Earthquakes are basically converged to the edge of the transitional regions of high and low Qs values. Heat flow sites and volcanoes zones are located in low-Qs area in the region. (2)There is a strong correlation between dynamic moving average Qs value, seismic activity and Luzhou-Qiongzhong GPS baseline. From 2000 to 2008, the average Qs value of the study area is relatively high, the seismic activity is strong, and Luzhou-Qiongzhong GPS baseline is decreasing. From 2008 to 2012, the average Qs value of the study area shows a downward trend, the seismic activity is weak, and the Luzhou-Qiongzhong GPS baseline displays an elongation trend. 相似文献