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1.
The Madden-Julian oscillation （MJO） is a dominant atmospheric low-frequency mode in the tropics. In this review article, recent progress in understanding the MJO dynamics is described. Firstly, the fundamental physical processes responsible for MJO eastward phase propagation are discussed. Next, a recent modeling result to address why MJO prefers a planetary zonal scale is presented. The effect of the seasonal mean state on distinctive propagation characteristics between northern winter and summer is discussed in a theoretical framework. Then, the observed precursor signals and the physical mechanism of MJO initiation in the western equatorial Indian Ocean are further discussed. Finally, scale interactions between MJO and higher- frequency eddies are delineated.  相似文献   

2.
The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) produced by a mesoscale model is investigated using standardized statistical diagnostics. Results show that upper- and lower-level zonal winds display the correct MJO structure, phase speed (8 m s?1) and space–time power spectrum. However, the simulated free atmosphere moisture, outgoing longwave radiation and precipitation do not exhibit any clear MJO signal. Yet, the boundary layer moisture, moist static energy and atmospheric instability, measured using a moist static energy instability index, have clear MJO signals. A significant finding is the ability of the model to simulate a realistic MJO phase speed in the winds without reproducing the MJO wind-convection coupling or a realistic propagation in the free atmosphere water vapor. This study suggests that the convergence of boundary layer moisture and the discharge and recharge of the moist static energy and atmospheric instability may be responsible for controlling the speed of propagation of the MJO circulation.  相似文献   

3.
In this study, the impacts of the tropical Pacific–Indian Ocean associated mode (PIOAM) on Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity were investigated using reanalysis data. In the positive (negative) phase of the PIOAM, the amplitudes of MJO zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation are significantly weakened (enhanced) over the Indian Ocean, while they are enhanced (weakened) over the central and eastern Pacific. The eastward propagation of the MJO can extend to the central Pacific in the positive phase of the PIOAM, whereas it is mainly confined to west of 160°E in the negative phase. The PIOAM impacts MJO activity by modifying the atmospheric circulation and moisture budget. Anomalous ascending (descending) motion and positive (negative) moisture anomalies occur over the western Indian Ocean and central-eastern Pacific (Maritime Continent and western Pacific) during the positive phase of the PIOAM. The anomalous circulation is almost the opposite in the negative phases of the PIOAM. This anomalous circulation and moisture can modulate the activity of the MJO. The stronger moistening over the Indian Ocean induced by zonal and vertical moisture advection leads to the stronger MJO activity over the Indian Ocean in the negative phase of the PIOAM. During the positive phase of the PIOAM, the MJO propagates farther east over the central Pacific owing to the stronger moistening there, which is mainly attributable to the meridional and vertical moisture advection, especially low-frequency background state moisture advection by the MJO’s meridional and vertical velocities.  相似文献   

4.
利用TRMM降水和ERA-Interim温度、比湿、环流场等再分析资料, 探讨了在1998-2018年冬季年际尺度海温变化对MJO的强度、结构和传播特征的影响。主要结论如下: 通过一种追踪MJO的方法在研究时间范围内共可挑选出50个MJO事件, 其中有14个MJO事件发生在El Ni?o期间, 25个发生在La Ni?a期间, 11个发生在ENSO正常年。El Ni?o年MJO会传播至更远的中东太平洋附近, 而La Ni?a年MJO事件趋于在西太平洋地区消亡, 这主要与东太平洋地区持续的季节内尺度的经向水汽输送有关。此外, 在印度洋和太平洋地区, El Ni?o年的MJO活动更强, 而在海洋性大陆附近, La Ni?a年的MJO活动略强一些。ENSO对MJO强度的影响主要通过影响MJO对流中心东侧水汽的输送, 水汽在异常东风气流的输送下穿过对流中心东边界进入对流中心, 进而造成MJO活动强度的差异。   相似文献   

5.
本文通过对1979-2019年ERA-I再分析资料进行诊断分析,研究了MJO垂直环流(VOC)纬向尺度和湿静力能(MSE)趋势纬向不对称性对MJO传播速度的综合影响.研究结果表明,MJO传播速度与VOC的纬向尺度和MSE趋势纬向梯度之间存在显著的正相关关系.基于上述两个参数,本文建立了线性回归模型,该模型可以较好的估计...  相似文献   

6.
The status of the numerical reproduction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) by current global models was assessed through diagnoses of four pairs of coupled and uncoupled simulations. Slow eastward propagation of the MJO, especially in low-level zonal wind, is realistic in all these simulations. However, the simulated MJO suffers from several common problems. The MJO signal in precipitation is generally too weak and often eroded by an unrealistic split of an equatorial maximum of precipitation into a double ITCZ structure over the western Pacific. The MJO signal in low-level zonal wind, on the other hand, is sometimes too strong over the eastern Pacific but too weak over the Indian Ocean. The observed phase relationship between precipitation and low-level zonal wind associated with the MJO in the western Pacific and their coherence in general are not reproduced by the models. The seasonal migration in latitude of MJO activity is missing in most simulations. Air–sea coupling generally strengthens the simulated eastward propagating signal, but its effects on the phase relationship and coherence between precipitation and low-level zonal wind, and on their geographic distributions, seasonal cycles, and interannual variability are inconsistent among the simulations. Such inconsistency cautions generalization of results from MJO simulations using a single model. In comparison to observations, biases in the simulated MJO appear to be related to biases in the background state of mean precipitation, low-level zonal wind, and boundary-layer moisture convergence. This study concludes that, while the realistic simulations of the eastward propagation of the MJO are encouraging, reproducing other fundamental features of the MJO by current global models remains an unmet challenge.
Chidong ZhangEmail:
  相似文献   

7.
Ping Liu 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(3-4):761-773
This study estimates how the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) will change with uniform global warming of 2 and 4 K at the Earth surface using an aqua-planet version of the NCAR CAM2 implemented with the Tiedtke convection scheme. Solar insolation is specified at the vernal equinox with a diurnal cycle. Thirty-year integrations are carried out for each case and the last 20-year’s results are used for analysis. For the warmer cases, the modeled MJO’s eastward propagation remains dominant at zonal wave numbers 1–4, and notable increase occurs in variance, power spectra, and the number of prominent MJO events. The convective heating is enhanced more in upper troposphere, and the MJO power spectra increase more on 20–30 days than on 30–60 days. In all cases, composite life cycles of prominent MJO events show that the anomalous surface latent heat flux lags precipitation by about 90° in phase, characterizing the nonlinear wind induced surface heat exchange (WISHE) to destabilize the MJO. Interacting with a warmer surface in the 4 K case, perturbations of zonal wind and temperature at bottom model level contribute to the nonlinear WISHE coherently with the latent heat flux. Meanwhile anomalous boundary layer convergence leads precipitation by some 45° in phase, indicating the frictional moisture convergence to maintain the enhanced MJO.  相似文献   

8.
The second Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) event during the field campaign of the Dynamics of the MJO/Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in the Year 2011 (DYNAMO/CINDY2011) exhibi ted an unusual double rainband structure. Using a wavenumber-frequency spectral filtering method, we unveil that this double rainband structure arises primarily from the Kelvin wave component. The zonal phase speed of the double rainbands is about 7.9 degree per day in the equatorial Indian Ocean, being in the range of convectively coupled Kelvin wave phase speeds. The convection and circulation anomalies associated with the Kelvin wave component are characterized by two anomalous convective cells, with low-level westerly (easterly) and high (low) pressure anomalies to the west (east) of the convective centers, and opposite wind and pressure anomalies in the upper troposphere. Such a zonal wind–pressure phase relationship is consistent with the equatorial free-wave dynamics. While the free-atmospheric circulation was dominated by the first baroclinic mode vertical structure, moisture and vertical motion in the boundary layer led the convection.The convection and circulation structures derived based on the conventional MJO filter show a different characteristic. For example, the phase speed is slower (about 5.9 degree per day), and there were no double convective branches. This suggests that MJO generally involves multi-scales and it is incomplete to extract its signals by using the conventional filtering technique.  相似文献   

9.
The first two series(RMM1 and RMM2) of RMM Index(all-Season Real-time Multivariate MJO Index) are computed to obtain the interannual variation of the preceding winter(preceding December to current February) MJO strength,according to which active(or inactive) years of preceding winter MJO are divided.By utilizing the data provided by NCEP/NCAR,CMAP and China’s 160 stations from 1979 to 2008,we studied the preceding winter MJO strength and discovered that the summer precipitation in the basin are of significantly negative correlation,i.e.when the preceding winter MJO is relatively active,the summer precipitation in the basin decreases,and vise verse.We also analyzed the causes.When the preceding winter MJO is relatively active,its release of potential heat facilities Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) to strengthen and locate northward in winter and propagate northeastward.This abnormal situation lasts from winter to summer.In mid-May,ITCZ jumps northward to the South China Sea,the western Pacific subtropical high withdraws eastward,and the South China Sea summer monsoon sets off and strengthens.In summer,ITCZ propagates to South China Sea-subtropical western Pacific,the zonal circulation of subtropical Pacific strengthens,and a local meridional circulation of the South China Sea to the basin area forms,giving rise to the East Asia Pacific teleconnection wave-train.An East Asian monsoon trough and the Meiyu front show opposite features from south to north,the East Asian summer monsoon strengthens and advances northward.As a result,the summer monsoon is weakened as the basin is controlled by the subtropical high continually,with less rain in summer.On the contrary,when the preceding winter MJO is inactive,ITCZ weakens and is located southward,the subtropical high is located southward in summer,and the basin is in a region of ascending airflow with prevailing southwest wind.The East Asian monsoon trough and EASM weaken so that summer monsoon is reduced in the basin where precipitation increases.  相似文献   

10.
This study estimates MJO change under the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario using the ECHAM5 AGCM whose coupled version (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) has simulated best MJO variance among fourteen CGCMs. The model has a horizontal resolution at T319 (about 40 km) and is forced by the monthly evolving SST derived from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM at a lower resolution of T63 (about 200 km). Two runs are carried out covering the last 21 years of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis products and observed precipitation are used to validate the simulated MJO during the twentieth century, based on which the twenty-first century MJO change is compared and predicted. The validation indicates that the previously reported MJO variances in the T63 coupled version are reproduced by the 40-km ECHAM5. More aspects of MJO, such as the eastward propagation, structure, and dominant frequency and zonal wavenumber in power spectrum, are simulated reasonably well. The magnitude in power, however, is still low so that the signal is marginally detectable and embedded in the over-reddened background. Under the A1B scenario, the T63 ECHAM5/MPI-OM projected an over 3 K warmer tropical sea surface that forces the 40-km ECHAM to produce wetter tropics. The enhanced precipitation variance shows more spectral enhancement in background than in most wavebands. The zonal winds associated with MJO, however, are strengthened in the lower troposphere but weakened in the upper. On the one hand, the 850-hPa zonal wind has power nearly doubled in 30–60-days bands, demonstrating relatively clearer enhancement than the precipitation in MJO with the warming. A 1-tailed Student’s t test suggests that most of the MJO changes in variance and power spectra are statically significant. Subject to a 20–100-days band-pass filtering of that wind, an EOF analysis indicates that the two leading components in the twentieth-century run have a close structure to but smaller percentage of explained-to-total variance than those in observations; the A1B warming slightly increases the explained percentage and alters the structure. An MJO index formed by the two leading principal components discloses nearly doubling in the number of prominent MJO events with a peak phase occurring in February and March. A composite MJO life cycle of these events favors the frictional moisture convergence mechanism in maintaining the MJO and the nonlinear wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE) mechanism also appears in the A1B warming case. On the other hand, the Slingo index based on the 300-hPa zonal wind discloses that the upper-level MJO tends to be suppressed by the A1B warming, although the loose relationship with ENSO remains unchanged. Possible cause for the different change of MJO in the lower and upper troposphere is discussed.  相似文献   

11.
The present study assesses the forecast skill of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) observed during the period of DYNAMO (Dynamics of the MJO)/CINDY (Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in Year 2011) field campaign in the GFS (NCEP Global Forecast System), CFSv2 (NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2) and UH (University of Hawaii) models, and revealed their strength and weakness in forecasting initiation and propagation of the MJO. Overall, the models forecast better the successive MJO which follows the preceding event than that with no preceding event (primary MJO). The common modeling problems include too slow eastward propagation, the Maritime Continent barrier and weak intensity. The forecasting skills of MJO major modes reach 13, 25 and 28 days, respectively, in the GFS atmosphere-only model, the CFSv2 and UH coupled models. An equal-weighted multi-model ensemble with the CFSv2 and UH models reaches 36 days. Air–sea coupling plays an important role for initiation and propagation of the MJO and largely accounts for the skill difference between the GFS and CFSv2. A series of forecasting experiments by forcing UH model with persistent, forecasted and observed daily SST further demonstrate that: (1) air–sea coupling extends MJO skill by about 1 week; (2) atmosphere-only forecasts driven by forecasted daily SST have a similar skill as the coupled forecasts, which suggests that if the high-resolution GFS is forced with CFSv2 forecasted daily SST, its forecast skill can be much higher than its current level as forced with persistent SST; (3) atmosphere-only forecasts driven by observed daily SST reaches beyond 40 days. It is also found that the MJO–TC (Tropical Cyclone) interactions have been much better represented in the UH and CFSv2 models than that in the GFS model. Both the CFSv2 and UH coupled models reasonably well capture the development of westerly wind bursts associated with November 2011 MJO and the cyclogenesis of TC05A in the Indian Ocean with a lead time of 2 weeks. However, the high-resolution GFS atmosphere-only model fails to reproduce the November MJO and the genesis of TC05A at 2 weeks’ lead. This result highlights the necessity to get MJO right in order to ensure skillful extended-range TC forecasting.  相似文献   

12.
利用1979~2013年实时多要素MJO（Madden-Julian Oscillation）监测（RMM）指数,美国NOAA逐日长波辐射资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,分析了全球变化背景下北半球冬季MJO传播的年代际变化特征。从全球平均气温快速增暖期（1985~1997）到变暖趋缓期（2000~2012）,MJO 2~4位相频次减少,5~7位相频次增多,即MJO对流活跃区在热带印度洋地区停留时间缩短、传播速度加快,而在热带西太平洋停留时间加长、传播明显减缓。进一步分析发现,以上MJO的年代际变化特征与全球变化年代际波动有关。当太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）处于负位相时,全球变暖趋缓,热带东印度洋—西太平洋海温异常偏暖,使其上空对流加强,垂直上升运动加强,对流层低层辐合,大气中的水汽含量增多,该区域的湿静力能（MSE）为正异常。当MJO对流活跃区位于热带印度洋地区时,MJO异常环流对季节平均MSE的输送在强对流中心东侧为正、西侧为负,有利于东侧MSE扰动增加,使得MJO对流扰动东移加快;而当MJO对流活跃区在热带西太平洋地区,MJO异常环流对平均MSE的输送形成东负西正的形势,东侧MSE扰动减小,不利于MJO快速东传。因此,全球变化背景下PDO引起的大气中水汽含量及MSE的变化可能是MJO传播年代际变化的重要原因。  相似文献   

13.
This paper investigates the processes and mechanisms by which the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) affects the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) over the equatorial western Pacific in boreal winter (November–April). The results show that both the EAWM and MJO over the equatorial western Pacific have prominent interannual and interdecadal variabilities, and they are closely related, especially on the interannual timescales. The EAWM influences MJO via the feedback effect of convective heating, because the strong northerlies of EAWM can enhance the ascending motion and lead the convection to be strengthened over the equatorial western Pacific by reinforcing the convergence in the lower troposphere. Daily composite analysis in the phase 4 of MJO (i.e., strong MJO convection over the Maritime Continent and equatorial western Pacific) shows that the kinetic energy, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), moisture flux, vertical velocity, zonal wind, moist static energy, and atmospheric stability differ greatly between strong and weak EAWM processes over the western Pacific. The strong EAWM causes the intensity of MJO to increase, and the eastward propagation of MJO to become more persistent. MJO activities over the equatorial western Pacific have different modes. Furthermore, these modes have differing relationships with the EAWM, and other factors can also affect the activities of MJO; consequently, the relationship between the MJO and EAWM shows both interannual and interdecadal variabilities.  相似文献   

14.
Mechanisms for convective initiation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) remain poorly understood. During recent years, <50 % of large-scale convectively active episodes over the tropical Indian Ocean have led to MJO initiation. This study explores the structure and evolution of precipitation, diabatic heating, and potential vorticity (PV) that might be used to tell whether an MJO event will be initiated once such a convection episode occurs. Three different cases are studied. As convection becomes active in a large area over the tropical Indian Ocean, early signs favorable for MJO initiation are apparent: a persistent basin-scale coverage in the zonal direction by positive anomalies in precipitation and diabatic heating (in a swallowtail pattern), a persistent vertical dipole of PV generation with cyclonic (anticyclonic) PV generation in the lower (upper) troposphere covering a zonally extended area, and a cyclonic PV anomaly in the midtroposphere with a cyclonic PV pair straddling the equator immediately west of the diabatic heating center. All these signs are robust in the MJO composite but rarely occur all together in a given MJO case. The likelihood of an MJO event following a convective episode over the tropical Indian Ocean depends on how many of these signs occur and how persistent they are. While a preexisting MJO signal is neither a necessary nor a sufficient sign for MJO initiation, an active convective episode over the tropical Indian Ocean is necessary but insufficient for MJO initiation. MJO initiation depends on detailed convective behaviors over the tropical Indian Ocean.  相似文献   

15.
通过构造两种不同类型的理想序列,将多尺度子空间变换(Multiscale Window Transform,MWT)与传统使用最多的带通滤波方法(Butterw orth)进行比较发现:MWT滤波的结果在整体上与原序列几乎完全吻合,而Butterworth的滤波结果在振幅上总是偏小;同时MWT对边界的处理也比Butterworth要好。为此使用这两种方法分别对MJO进行重构,并比较两种方法下MJO特性的差异。结果表明:在经向(meridional)传播上,两种方法得出的MJO基本类似;但在纬向(zonal)传播及其季节变化上,两种方法的结果无论在强度还是分布上都存在明显的差异,并且这种差异主要存在于西太平洋地区。本文发现:MJO波列从年初到夏季由南向北传播,从夏季到岁末传播方向却逆转成由北向南(尤其是在西太平洋地区),这一点与前人的结果迥异。  相似文献   

16.
Observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and ERA-Interim reanalysis data were analyzed to reveal the initiation processes associated with a successive and a primary MJO event during 2000-2001. It was found that the initiation of the successive event was caused by anomalous ascending motion induced by low-level horizontal temperature advection. The anomalous ascending motion, together with horizontal moisture advection, moistened lower troposphere and led to an unstable stratification and triggered convection. The initiation of the primary MJO event, on the other hand, was caused by the accumulation of anomalous moisture associated with three low-frequency modes, a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW), an westward-propagating equatorial Rossby wave (ER) and a weak planetary-scale MJO mode. It is the merging of the low-level specific humidity anomalies of the three modes that led to the rapid setup of large-scale convectively unstable stratification and favored the development of the eastward-propagating planetary-scale MJO mode.  相似文献   

17.
This paper investigates the contrasts between strong and weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity over the equatorial western Pacific during winter using the NCEP reanalysis data. It is shown that the MJO over the equatorial western Pacific in winter shows significant interannual and interdecadal variabilities. During the winters with strong MJO activity, an anomalous cyclonic circulation lies east of the Philippines, strong anomalous easterlies control the equatorial eastern Pacific, and anomalous westerlies extend from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in the lower troposphere, which strengthens the convergence and convection over the equatorial western Pacific. The moisture convergence in the lower troposphere is also enhanced over the western Pacific, which is favorable to the activity of MJO. Eastward propagation is a significant feature of the MJO, though there is some westward propagation. The space-time spectral power and center period of the MJO are higher during strong MJO activity winters. The anomalous activity of MJO is closely related to the sea surface temperature (SST) and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). During strong MJO activity winters, there are positive/negative anomalies at high/low latitudes in both sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height, and the temperature is lower over the central part of the Chinese mainland, which indicates a strong EAWM. China experiences more rainfall between the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers, but less rainfall south of the Yangtze River. The SSTA is negative near the Taiwan Island due to the impact of strong EAWM and shows a La Ni?a pattern anomaly over the eastern Pacific. During the weak MJO activity winters, the situation is reversed.  相似文献   

18.
Tropical channel models, defined as models that are global in the zonal direction but bounded in the meridional direction, are particularly useful for simulating the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and understanding its physical and dynamical basis. Influences from the extratropics through the lateral boundaries have been found to be essential to the reproduction of the initiation of certain MJO events. This led to a hypothesis that multi-year simulations using a tropical channel model would reproduce reasonable MJO statistics under the influence of prescribed lateral boundary conditions derived from global reanalyses. Interestingly, the MJO statistics in such a multi-year simulation by a high-resolution tropical channel model are not better than those from global climate models. The error in the atmospheric mean state is found to be a possible reason for the poor MJO statistics in the simulation. Nevertheless, even with a large error in the mean state, the multi-year simulation captures two MJO events previously found to be initiated by extratropical influences. However, the model does not reproduce a third event, whose initiation is not directly influenced by the extratropics. This implies that in the absence of dynamical interactions between the MJO and the lateral boundary conditions, the error in the mean state could be sufficient to prevent the MJO initiation. To explore this third MJO event further, a series of sensitivity tests are conducted. These tests show that the simulation of this event is neither critically influenced by the cumulus parameterization employed, nor the initial conditions when the model is integrated 2?weeks prior to the MJO initiation. The model captures this event when the MJO signal is already present in the initial conditions. The use of high-resolution sea surface temperature does not improve the simulation of the third MJO event. A higher-resolution nested domain covering the Indo-Pacific warm pool region and including a cloud-system resolving domain over the Indonesian Maritime Continent has little effect on the MJO initiation over the Indian Ocean. In <2?weeks the error in the simulation is comparable to the climate error. The role of the simulated MJO on the mean state is also explored. Implications and limitations of these results are discussed.  相似文献   

19.
Thirty strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events in boreal winter 1982-2001 are selected to investigate the triggering processes of MJO convection over the western equatorial Indian Ocean (IO). These MJO events are classified into three types, according to their dynamic and thermodynamic precursor signals in situ. In Type I, a remarkable increase in low-level moisture occurs, on average, 7 days prior to the convection initiation. This low-level moistening is mainly due to the advection of the background mean moisture by easterly wind anomalies over the equatorial IO. In Type II, lower-tropospheric ascending motion anomalies develop, on average, 4 days prior to the initiation. The cause of this ascending motion anomaly is attributed to the anomalous warm advection, set up by a suppressed MJO phase in the equatorial IO. In Type III, there are no clear dynamic and thermodynamic precursor signals in situ. The convection might be triggered by energy accumulation in the upper layer associated with Rossby wave activity fluxes originated from the midlatitudes.  相似文献   

20.
IAP9L AGCM中大气季节内振荡的时空特征   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  
根据IAP9LAGCM10年积分850hPa纬向风的逐日输出结果,应用Morlet小波分析方法,研究了该模式中的大气季节内振荡(MJO),结果表明该模式能抓住热带MJO的基本时空特征,模式中MJO的显著周期为36天;另外还分析了16～64天重构信号的时间经度剖面图,发现该MJO为东传,这与实际较一致;最后用EOF方法分析了模式大气中850hPa5天平均速度势,揭示出该MJO在全球表现为行星尺度1波和2波的特征。  相似文献   

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