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1.
The variability of flow in river channels influences the spatial and temporal variability of many biophysical processes including the transport of sediment and waterborne pollutants and the recruitment of aquatic animals and plants. In this study, inter- and intra-basin patterns of flood variability are examined for catchments east of Australia’s Great Dividing Range. Three measures of flood variability are explored with uncertainty quantified using bootstrap resampling. The two preferred measures of flood variability (namely a flood quantile ratio and a power law scaling coefficient) produced similar results. Catchments in the wet tropics of far north Queensland experience low flood variability. Flood variability increased southwards through Queensland, reaching a maximum in the vicinity of the Fitzroy and Burnett River basins. The small near-coast catchments of southern Queensland and northern New Wales experience low flood variability. Flood variability is also high in the southern Hunter River and Hawkesbury–Nepean basins. Using L-moment ratio diagrams with data from 424 streamflow stations, we also conclude that the Generalised Pareto distribution is preferable for modelling flood frequency curves for this region. These results provide a regional perspective that can be used to develop new hypotheses about the effects of hydrologic variability on the biophysical characteristics of these Australian rivers.  相似文献   

2.
Using a nonstationary flood frequency model, this study investigates the impact of trends on the estimation of flood frequencies and flood magnification factors. Analysis of annual peak streamflow data from 28 hydrological stations across the Pearl River basin, China, shows that: (1) northeast parts of the West and the North River basins are dominated by increasing annual peak streamflow, whereas decreasing trends of annual peak streamflow are prevailing in other regions of the Pearl River basin; (2) trends significantly impact the estimation of flood frequencies. The changing frequency of the same flood magnitude is related to the changing magnitude or significance/insignificance of trends, larger increasing frequency can be detected for stations with significant increasing trends of annual peak streamflow and vice versa, and smaller increasing magnitude for stations with not significant increasing annual peak streamflow, pointing to the critical impact of trends on estimation of flood frequencies; (3) larger‐than‐1 flood magnification factors are observed mainly in the northeast parts of the West River basin and in the North River basin, implying magnifying flood processes in these regions and a higher flood risk in comparison with design flood‐control standards; and (4) changes in hydrological extremes result from the integrated influence of human activities and climate change. Generally, magnifying flood regimes in the northeast Pearl River basin and in the North River basin are mainly the result of intensifying precipitation regime; smaller‐than‐1 flood magnification factors along the mainstream of the West River basin and also in the East River basin are the result of hydrological regulations of water reservoirs. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Understanding the changes in streamflow and associated driving forces is crucial for formulating a sustainable regional water resources management strategy in the environmentally fragile karst area of the southwest China. This study investigates the spatio-temporal changes in streamflow of the Guizhou region and their linkage with meteorological influences using the Mann–Kendall trend analysis, singular-spectrum analysis (SSA), Lepage test, and flow duration curves (FDCs). The results demonstrate that: (1) the streamflow in the flood-season (June–August) during 1956–2000 increased significantly (confidence level ≥95%) in most catchments, closely consistent with the distinct increasing trend of annual rainfall over wet-seasons. The timings of abrupt change for streamflow in most catchments are found to occur at 1986; (2) streamflow in the Guizhou region experiences significant seasonal changes prior/posterior to 1986, and in most catchments the coefficient of variation of monthly streamflow increases; (3) spatial changes in streamflow indicate that monthly streamflow in the north-west decreases but increases in other parts; (4) the spatial high- and low-flow map (Q 5 and Q 95) reveals an increase in the extremely large streamflow in the five eastern catchments but a decrease in the extremely low streamflow in the four eastern catchments and three western catchments during 1987–2000. An increase in streamflow, particularly extreme flows, during the flood season would increase the risk of extreme flood events, while a decrease in streamflow in the dry season is not beneficial to vegetation restoration in this ecologically fragile region.  相似文献   

4.
Scaling and multifractal properties of the hydrological processes of the Yangtze River basin were explored by using a multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF‐DFA) technique. Long daily mean streamflow series from Cuntan, Yichang, Hankou and Datong stations were analyzed. Using shuffled streamflow series, the types of multifractality of streamflow series was also studied. The results indicate that the discharge series of the Yangtze River basin are non‐stationary. Different correlation properties were identified within streamflow series of the upper, the middle and the lower Yangtze River basin. The discharge series of the upper Yangtze River basin are characterized by short memory or anti‐persistence; while the streamflow series of the lower Yangtze River basin is characterized by long memory or persistence. h(q) vs q curves indicate multifractality of the hydrological processes of the Yangtze River basin. h(q) curves of shuffled streamflow series suggest that the multifractality of the streamflow series is mainly due to the correlation properties within the hydrological series. This study may be of practical and scientific importance in regional flood frequency analysis and water resource management in different parts of the Yangtze River basin. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
The attenuation in Southeastern Sicily has been investigated using 40aftershocks of the December 13 1990, earthquake. The quality factor ofcoda waves (Qc) was estimated in the frequency range 1.5–24 Hz,applying three different methods in time and frequency domains. On thewhole, a clear dependence of Qc on frequency was observed,according to the general law Q = Q0(f/f0)n . Thefrequency dependence relationships obtained from the analysis of codawaves at three lapse time windows (10, 20 and 30 seconds) show that, forall methods, Q0 (Qc at 1 Hz) significantly increases with lapsetime. In particular, Q0 is approximately 20 at short lapse time (10s) and increases to about 70 at longer lapse time (30 s). This is attributedto the fact that larger lapse times involve deeper parts of the crust andupper lithosphere which may be characterized by larger quality factors.Moreover, the value of the exponent n decreases with increasing codalengths from about 1.3 to 0.9, suggesting a decrease in heterogeneity ofthe medium with depth.Finally, Qc-values here found are of the same order as thosereported from other tectonic regions like the Anatolian Highlands orSouthern Spain, while significantly higher than in the neighboring volcanicarea of Mt. Etna.  相似文献   

6.
Abstract

The spatial scaling properties of annual average streamflow is examined using records from 1 433 river basins across the continental United States. The log-linear relationship ln(E[Qr i]) = a + br ln(Ai) is representative throughout the United States, where E[Qr i] represents the expectation of the rth moment of annual streamflow at site i, and Ai represents drainage area. The scaling model parameters ar and br follow nearly perfect linear relationships ar = rα and br = rβ throughout the continental United States. We conclude that the probability distribution of annual streamflow follows simple scaling relationships in all regions of the United States. In temperate regions where climate is relatively homogeneous, scale alone describes most of the variability in the moments of annual streamflow. In the more climatically heterogeneous regions, such as in the Upper Colorado and Missouri river basins, scale alone is a poor predictor of the moments of annual flow.  相似文献   

7.
Abstract

The two-parameter EV1 distribution adequately describes New Zealand's flood series. Contour maps of [Qbar]/A0.8 and Q100[Qbar] are presented, where [Qbar] is the mean annual flood, A is the basin area and Q100 is the 1% annual exceedance probability flood. The maps are based directly on measured discharge series from a large sample of river recording stations. Thus when basins are ungauged, or have just a short record, an estimate of a design flood QT with specified annual exceedance probability (1/T) can be obtained using map estimates of [Qbar]/A0.8 and Q100[Qbar], without having first to estimate rainfall statistics for the basin, a particularly difficult task in sparsely instrumented mountainous areas. These maps succinctly summarize a great deal of hydrological information and permit improved flood frequency estimates.  相似文献   

8.
Due to the severity related to extreme flood events, recent efforts have focused on the development of reliable methods for design flood estimation. Historical streamflow series correspond to the most reliable information source for such estimation; however, they have temporal and spatial limitations that may be minimized by means of regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA). Several studies have emphasized that the identification of hydrologically homogeneous regions is the most important and challenging step in an RFFA. This study aims to identify state‐of‐the‐art clustering techniques (e.g., K ‐means, partition around medoids, fuzzy C‐means, K ‐harmonic means, and genetic K ‐means) with potential to form hydrologically homogeneous regions for flood regionalization in Southern Brazil. The applicability of some probability density function, such as generalized extreme value, generalized logistic, generalized normal, and Pearson type 3, was evaluated based on the regions formed. Among all the 15 possible combinations of the aforementioned clustering techniques and the Euclidian, Mahalanobis, and Manhattan distance measures, the five best were selected. Several watersheds' physiographic and climatological attributes were chosen to derive multiple regression equations for all the combinations. The accuracy of the equations was quantified with respect to adjusted coefficient of determination, root mean square error, and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient, whereas, a cross‐validation procedure was applied to check their reliability. It was concluded that reliable results were obtained when using robust clustering techniques based on fuzzy logic (e.g., K ‐harmonic means), which have not been commonly used in RFFA. Furthermore, the probability density functions were capable of representing the regional annual maximum streamflows. Drainage area, main river length, and mean altitude of the watershed were the most recurrent attributes for modelling of mean annual maximum streamflow. Finally, an integration of all the five best combinations stands out as a robust, reliable, and simple tool for estimation of design floods.  相似文献   

9.
Global climate change and diverse human activities have resulted in distinct temporal–spatial variability of watershed hydrological regimes, especially in water‐limited areas. This study presented a comprehensive investigation of streamflow and sediment load changes on multi‐temporal scales (annual, flood season, monthly and daily scales) during 1952–2011 in the Yanhe watershed, Loess Plateau. The results indicated that the decreasing trend of precipitation and increasing trend of potential evapotranspiration and aridity index were not significant. Significant decreasing trends (p < 0.01) were detected for both the annual and flood season streamflow, sediment load, sediment concentration and sediment coefficient. The runoff coefficient exhibited a significantly negative trend (p < 0.01) on the flood season scale, whereas the decreasing trend on the annual scale was not significant. The streamflow and sediment load during July–August contributed 46.7% and 86.2% to the annual total, respectively. The maximum daily streamflow and sediment load had the median occurrence date of July 31, and they accounted for 9.7% and 29.2% of the annual total, respectively. All of these monthly and daily hydrological characteristics exhibited remarkable decreasing trends (p < 0.01). However, the contribution of the maximum daily streamflow to the annual total progressively decreased (?0.07% year?1), while that of maximum daily sediment load increased over the last 60 years (0.08% year?1). The transfer of sloping cropland for afforestation and construction of check‐dams represented the dominant causes of streamflow and sediment load reductions, which also made the sediment grain finer. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Records of natural processes, such as gradual streamflow fluctuations, are commonly interrupted by long or short disruptions from natural non‐linear responses to gradual changes, such as from river‐ice break‐ups, freezing as a result of annual solar cycles, or human causes, such as flow blocking by dams and other means, instrument calibrations and failure. The resulting abrupt or gradual shifts and missing data are considered to be discontinuities with respect to the normal signal. They differ from random noise as they do not follow any fixed distribution over time and, hence, cannot be eliminated by filtering. The multi‐scale resolution features of continuous wavelet analysis and cross wavelet analysis were used in this study to determine the amplitude and timing of such streamflow discontinuities for specific wavebands. The cross wavelet based method was able to detect the strength and timing of abrupt shifts to new streamflow levels, gaps in data records longer than the waveband of interest and a sinusoidal discontinuity curve following an underlying modeled annual signal at ±0.5 year uncertainty. Parameter testing of the time‐frequency resolution demonstrated that high temporal resolution using narrow analysis windows is favorable to high‐frequency resolution for detection of waveband‐related discontinuities. Discontinuity analysis on observed daily streamflow records from Canadian rivers showed the following: (i) that there is at least one discontinuity/year related to the annual spring flood in each record studied, and (ii) neighboring streamflows have similar discontinuity patterns. In addition, the discontinuity density of the Canadian streamflows studied in this paper exhibit 11‐year cycles that are inversely correlated with the solar intensity cycle. This suggests that more streamflow discontinuities, such as through fast freezing, snowmelt, or ice break‐up, may occur during years with slightly lowered solar insolation. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Unsaturated flow in coarse granular media must pass through hydraulic bridges (e.g., pendular water, porous connections) that form a physical connection between adjoining clasts. Previous studies suggest that volumetric flow through a porous clast (Q) will be linearly dependent on the cross-sectional area of the hydraulic bridges, and understate the importance of bridge conductivity. Numerical simulations were performed to explore steady-state flow through a spherical clast with identical bridges located at the top and bottom. The cross-sectional area of the bridges relative to that of the clast (Ar) was varied across six orders of magnitude. The ratio of hydraulic conductivity between bridges and clasts (Kb/Kc) was varied across 12 orders of magnitude to consider resistive, neutral, and conductive bridges. Results show that hydraulic bridges place a primary control on both Q and flux distribution within the clast. For neutral and conductive bridges (Kb/Kc ≥1), Ar is the dominant factor in determining Q, while Kb/Kc is the primary control for resistive bridges (Kb/Kc < 1). For all bridges, Q shows a non-linear dependency on both Ar and Kb/Kc. The intra-clast flow distribution shifts outwards as Ar increases. Conductive bridges promote this process and resistive bridges impede it.  相似文献   

12.
A regionalization of flood data in British Columbia reveals a common scaling with drainage area over the range 0·5×102<Ad<104 km2. This scaling is not a function of flood return period, which implies that simple scaling—consistent with a snowmelt‐dominated flow regime—applies to the province. The observed scale relation takes the form , similar to values reported in previous studies. The scaling relation identified was used to define the regional pattern of hydroclimatic variability for flood flows in British Columbia after discounting the effect of drainage area. The pattern was determined by kriging a scale‐independent runoff factor k for the mean annual flood, 5 year flood and 20 year flood. The analysis permits quantification of uncertainty of the estimates, which can be used in conjunction with the mapped k‐fields to calculate a mean and range for floods with the identified return period for ungauged basins. Owing to the sparsity of data, the precision is relatively poor. The standard error is generally less than 75% of the estimate in the southern half of the province, whereas in the northern half it is often between 75 and 100%. Examination of the relative increase in flood magnitude with increasing return period reveals spatially consistent but statistically insignificant differences. Flood magnitude tends to increase more rapidly in the western regions, where rain events may contribute to flood generation. The relative increase in flood magnitude with return period is consistently lower in the eastern mountain ranges, where snowmelt dominates the flood flow regime. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Regional seismic apparent attenuation was estimated for Costa Rica, Central America, by using a time domain single scattering model of the shear wave coda decay of local earthquakes. The sensitivity of coda Q (Qc) measurements with respect to geological differences in the crust is demonstrated in eight sub-regions with a large variety of tectonic and geologic properties. The Qc estimations were performed for 96 selected local earthquakes recorded at 13 sites during a period of three months. In order to model the scattering as a weak process and to avoid short distance nonlinear effects, we made use of the S-wave coda data only from events within a hypocentral distance of 12 to 106 km with a lapse time between 9 and 53 s. Seismograms were also divided into groups with three different focal depths d, namely d<21 km, 21 kmc values are frequency dependent in the range 1–9 Hz, and are approximated by a least-squares fit to the power law Qc(f) = Q0(f/f0)n. The estimated parameters of the power-law dependence of Qc for the whole region, including all depths and possible wave paths, are Q0 = 91 (± 8.4) and n = 0.72 (±0.071). Differences in the parameter of Qc for different depths intervals are small, ranging from Q0 = 90 (±0.7) and n = 0.70 (±0.006) for the uppermost group, with focal depths less than 21 km, to Q0 = 97 (±0.7) and n = 0.79 (±0.005) for the deepest group with focal depths larger than 43 km. The regional differences in Qc for the eight sub-regions are significantly larger when compared with the differences between the three focal depth groups. An attempt is made to interpret the variation of Qc in terms of spatial variations in the geologic and tectonic properties of the crust. Other authors have found that the frequency exponent n might be larger in active tectonic areas and smaller in more stable regions. In the northern region of the Pacific coast we obtain a value of n = 0.52 (±0.011), which might indicate a lower level of tectonic activity when compared with n = 0.85 (±0.015) and 0.83 (±0.031), respectively, for the central and southern sub-regions along the Pacific coast. The latter two sub-regions are located closer to the active area near the Cocos ridge. We obtain the frequency exponent n = 0.72 (±0.052) along a major shear zone in central Costa Rica characterized by high volcanic activity and large geologic complexity. Values of n along the Panamean border are 0.62 (±0.029) in the north and 0.86 (±0.009) and 0.83 (±0.031) in two regions adjacent to the subduction zone and the Cocos Ridge, respectively.  相似文献   

14.
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15.
The index flood procedure coupled with the L‐moments method is applied to the annual flood peaks data taken at all stream‐gauging stations in Turkey having at least 15‐year‐long records. First, screening of the data is done based on the discordancy measure (Di) in terms of the L‐moments. Homogeneity of the total geographical area of Turkey is tested using the L‐moments based heterogeneity measure, H, computed on 500 simulations generated using the four parameter Kappa distribution. The L‐moments analysis of the recorded annual flood peaks data at 543 gauged sites indicates that Turkey as a whole is hydrologically heterogeneous, and 45 of 543 gauged sites are discordant which are discarded from further analyses. The catchment areas of these 543 sites vary from 9·9 to 75121 km2 and their mean annual peak floods vary from 1·72 to 3739·5 m3 s?1. The probability distributions used in the analyses, whose parameters are computed by the L‐moments method are the general extreme values (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized normal (GNO), Pearson type III (PE3), generalized Pareto (GPA), and five‐parameter Wakeby (WAK). Based on the L‐moment ratio diagrams and the |Zdist|‐statistic criteria, the GEV distribution is identified as the robust distribution for the study area (498 gauged sites). Hence, for estimation of flood magnitudes of various return periods in Turkey, a regional flood frequency relationship is developed using the GEV distribution. Next, the quantiles computed at all of 543 gauged sites by the GEV and the Wakeby distributions are compared with the observed values of the same probability based on two criteria, mean absolute relative error and determination coefficient. Results of these comparisons indicate that both distributions of GEV and Wakeby, whose parameters are computed by the L‐moments method, are adequate in predicting quantile estimates. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
The bedrock controls on catchment mixing, storage, and release have been actively studied in recent years. However, it has been difficult to find neighbouring catchments with sufficiently different and clean expressions of geology to do comparative analysis. Here, we present new data for 16 nested catchments (0.45 to 410 km2) in the Alzette River basin (Luxembourg) that span a range of clean and mixed expressions of schists, phyllites, sandstones, and quartzites to quantify the relationships between bedrock permeability and metrics of water storage and release. We examined 9 years' worth of precipitation and discharge data, and 6 years of fortnightly stable isotope data in streamflow, to explore how bedrock permeability controls (a) streamflow regime metrics, (b) catchment storage, and (c) isotope response and catchment mean transit time (MTT). We used annual and winter precipitation–run‐off ratios, as well as average summer and winter precipitation–run‐off ratios to characterise the streamflow regime in our 16 study catchments. Catchment storage was then used as a metric for catchment comparison. Water mixing potential of 11 catchments was quantified via the standard deviation in streamflow δD (σδD) and the amplitude ratio (AS/AP) of annual cycles of δ18O in streamflow and precipitation. Catchment MTT values were estimated via both stable isotope signature damping and hydraulic turnover calculations. In our 16 nested catchments, the variance in ratios of summer versus winter average run‐off was best explained by bedrock permeability. Whereas active storage (defined here as a measure of the observed maximum interannual variability in catchment storage) ranged from 107 to 373 mm, total catchment storage (defined as the maximum catchment storage connected to the stream network) extended up to ~1700 mm (±200 mm). Catchment bedrock permeability was strongly correlated with mixing proxies of σδD in streamflow and δ18O AS/AP ratios. Catchment MTT values ranged from 0.5 to 2 years, based on stable isotope signature damping, and from 0.5 to 10 years, based on hydraulic turnover.  相似文献   

17.
The paper presents an analysis of 17 long annual maximum series (AMS) of flood flows for Swiss Alpine basins, aimed at checking the presence of changes in the frequency regime of annual maxima. We apply Pettitt's change point test, the nonparametric sign test and Sen's test on trends. We also apply a parametric goodness‐of‐fit test for assessing the suitability of distributions estimated on the basis of annual maxima collected up to a certain year for describing the frequency regime of later observations. For a number of series the tests yield consistent indications for significant changes in the frequency regime of annual maxima and increasing trends in the intensity of annual maximum discharges. In most cases, these changes cannot be explained by anthropogenic causes only (e.g. streamflow regulation, construction of dams). Instead, we observe a statistically significant relationship between the year of change and the elevation of the catchment outlet. This evidence is consistent with the findings of recent studies that explain increasing discharges in alpine catchments with an increase in the temperature controlling the portion of mountain catchments above the freezing point. Finally, we analyse the differences in return periods (RPs) estimated for a given flood flow on the basis of recent and past observations. For a large number of the study AMS, we observe that, on average, the 100‐year flood for past observations corresponds to a RP of approximately 10 to 30 years on the basis of more recent observation. From a complementary perspective, we also notice that estimated RP‐year flood (i.e. flood quantile (FQ) associated with RP) increases on average by approximately 20% for the study area, irrespectively of the RP. Practical implications of the observed changes are illustrated and discussed in the paper. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Flood frequency analysis is usually based on the fitting of an extreme value distribution to the local streamflow series. However, when the local data series is short, frequency analysis results become unreliable. Regional frequency analysis is a convenient way to reduce the estimation uncertainty. In this work, we propose a regional Bayesian model for short record length sites. This model is less restrictive than the index flood model while preserving the formalism of “homogeneous regions”. The performance of the proposed model is assessed on a set of gauging stations in France. The accuracy of quantile estimates as a function of the degree of homogeneity of the pooling group is also analysed. The results indicate that the regional Bayesian model outperforms the index flood model and local estimators. Furthermore, it seems that working with relatively large and homogeneous regions may lead to more accurate results than working with smaller and highly homogeneous regions.  相似文献   

19.
Agricultural pollutant runoff is a major source of water contamination in California's Sacramento River watershed where 8500 km2 of agricultural land influences water quality. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrology, sediment, nitrate and pesticide transport components were assessed for the Sacramento River watershed. To represent flood conveyance in the area, the model was improved by implementing a flood routing algorithm. Sensitivity/uncertainty analyses and multi‐objective calibration were incorporated into the model application for predicting streamflow, sediment, nitrate and pesticides (chlorpyrifos and diazinon) at multiple watershed sites from 1992 to 2008. Most of the observed data were within the 95% uncertainty interval, indicating that the SWAT simulations were capturing the uncertainties that existed, such as model simplification, observed data errors and lack of agricultural management data. The monthly Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients at the watershed outlet ranged from 0.48 to 0.82, indicating that the model was able to successfully predict streamflow and agricultural pollutant transport after calibration. Predicted sediment loads were highly correlated to streamflow, whereas nitrate, chlorpyrifos and diazinon were moderately correlated to streamflow. This indicates that timing of agricultural management operations plays a role in agricultural pollutant runoff. Best management practices, such as pesticide use limits during wet seasons, could improve water quality in the Sacramento River watershed. The calibrated model establishes a modelling framework for further studies of hydrology, water quality and ecosystem protection in the study area. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Abstract

This study aims to assess the potential impact of climate change on flood risk for the city of Dayton, which lies at the outlet of the Upper Great Miami River Watershed, Ohio, USA. First the probability mapping method was used to downscale annual precipitation output from 14 global climate models (GCMs). We then built a statistical model based on regression and frequency analysis of random variables to simulate annual mean and peak streamflow from precipitation input. The model performed well in simulating quantile values for annual mean and peak streamflow for the 20th century. The correlation coefficients between simulated and observed quantile values for these variables exceed 0.99. Applying this model with the downscaled precipitation output from 14 GCMs, we project that the future 100-year flood for the study area is most likely to increase by 10–20%, with a mean increase of 13% from all 14 models. 79% of the models project increase in annual peak flow.

Citation Wu, S.-Y. (2010) Potential impact of climate change on flooding in the Upper Great Miami River Watershed, Ohio, USA: a simulation-based approach. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1251–1263.  相似文献   

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