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1.
In this paper, we review the variation of the 11-year solar cycle since the 15th century revealed by the measurement of radiocarbon content in single-year tree-rings of Japanese cedar trees. Measurements of radiocarbon content in absolutely dated tree-rings provide a calibration curve for accurate dating of archaeological matters, but at the same time, enable us to examine the variations of solar magnetic activity in the pre-historical period. The Sun holds several long-term quasi-cyclic variations in addition to the fundamental 11-year sunspot activity cycle and the 22-year polarity reversal cycle, and it is speculated that the property of the 11-year and the 22-year solar cycle varies in association with such long-term quasi-cycles. It is essential to reveal the details of solar variations around the transition time of solar dynamo for illuminating the mechanisms of the long-term solar variations. We therefore have investigated the property of the 11-year and 22-year cycles around the two grand solar minima; the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD) and the Spoerer Minimum (1415–1534 AD), the periods of prolonged sunspot minima. As a result, slight stretching of the “11-year” and the “22-year” solar cycles was found during these two grand solar activity minima; continuously during the Maunder Minimum and only intermittently during the Spoerer Minimum. On the contrary, normal or slightly shortened 11-year cycles were detected during the interval period of these two minima. It suggests the inverse correlation between the solar cycle length and solar magnetic activity level, and also the change of meridional flow during the grand solar activity minima. Further measurements for the beginning of the grand solar minima will provide a clue to the occurrence of such prolonged sunspot disappearance. We also discuss the effect of solar variations to radiocarbon dating.  相似文献   

2.
One of the most enigmatic features of the solar history is the Maunder minimum (1645–1715). We compare the scatter of amplitudes of the 11-year cycles, according to the new Sunspot Number and Sunspot Group series version 2.0, along with scenario of the Maunder minimum as a period with non-stopped cyclicity. We demonstrate that both amplitude and duration of cycles after the Gleissberg and Maunder minima are similar. Moreover, times of minima and maxima of cycles in the course the Maunder minimum coincide with those during the Gleissberg one, indicating a secular variation. Usefulness of the proxy data within the Maunder minimum is discussed. The scatter of amplitudes and duration of the Schwabe cycles in the past is argued to be comparable with those in the modern epoch.  相似文献   

3.
We investigate whether or not the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. Several global surface temperature records since 1850 and records deduced from the orbits of the planets present very similar power spectra. Eleven frequencies with period between 5 and 100 years closely correspond in the two records. Among them, large climate oscillations with peak-to-trough amplitude of about 0.1 and 0.25°C, and periods of about 20 and 60 years, respectively, are synchronized to the orbital periods of Jupiter and Saturn. Schwabe and Hale solar cycles are also visible in the temperature records. A 9.1-year cycle is synchronized to the Moon's orbital cycles. A phenomenological model based on these astronomical cycles can be used to well reconstruct the temperature oscillations since 1850 and to make partial forecasts for the 21st century. It is found that at least 60% of the global warming observed since 1970 has been induced by the combined effect of the above natural climate oscillations. The partial forecast indicates that climate may stabilize or cool until 2030–2040. Possible physical mechanisms are qualitatively discussed with an emphasis on the phenomenon of collective synchronization of coupled oscillators.  相似文献   

4.
Data on variations in the content of the 14C cosmogenic isotope in tree rings and the Earth’s atmosphere (Δ14C) make it possible to study the behavior of solar activity (SA) in previous centuries and millenniums. The latter is related to the fact that SA temporal variations result in a change in the IMF (Interplanetary Magnetic Field) parameters and, as a consequence, in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux, under the action of which the 14C isotope is produced in the Earth’s atmosphere. This makes it possible to study SA history based on data on the 14C isotope content in tree rings. However, in this case we have several difficulties related to climate change. Climate changes result in carbon redistribution between natural reservoirs, which is reflected in radiocarbon data and results in solar signal distortion. The effect of variations in the global temperature and carbon dioxide concentration on the reconstruction of the heliospheric modulation potential and Wolf numbers from the late 14th century to the early 19th century is considered. It has been shown that the radiocarbon data do not make it possible to conclude that SA during the Maunder minimum was extremely low as compared to SA during the Dalton minimum.  相似文献   

5.
Numerous studies of interrelations between solar activity and global climate changes report contradictory conclusions. The topic as such is too complex, and manifestations of the studied relationship appear to differ in time and space, and sometimes are even of the opposite sense, In this study the data on air temperature and precipitation totals from Hurbanovo, one of the oldest meteorological observatories in Europe, are used to study their evolution within the interval 1871–1995, covering solar cycles 12–22, The variability of the meteorological elements mentioned is compared with that of the sunspot number and aa index of geomagnetic activity. The sensitivity of climate changes to variable solar forcing is presented as a comparison of extreme (maximum/minimum) activity conditions. Harmonic components with periods close to the length of the solar secular and solar magnetic cycles were found in climate evolution profiles.  相似文献   

6.
Solar radiation (both total and in various wavelengths) varies at different time scales—from seconds to decades or centuries—as a consequence of solar activity. The energy received from the Sun is one of the natural driving forces of the Earth's atmosphere and since this energy is not constant, it has been argued that there must be some non-zero climate response to it. This response must be fully specified in order to improve our understanding of the climate system and the impact of anthropogenic activities on it. However, despite all the efforts, if and how subtle variations of solar radiation affect climate and weather still remains an unsolved puzzle. One key element that is very often taken as evidence of a response, is the similarity of periodicities between several solar activity indices and different meteorological parameters. The literature contains a long history of positive or negative correlations between weather and climate parameters like temperature, rainfall, droughts, etc. and solar activity cycles like the 27-day cycle, the prominent 11-year sunspot cycle, the 22-year Hale cycle and the Gleissberg cycle of 80–90 years. A review of these different cycles is provided as well as some of the correlative analyses between them and several stratospheric parameters (like stratospheric geopotential heights, temperature and ozone concentration) and tropospheric parameters (like temperature, rainfall, water level in lakes and river flooding, clouds) that point to a relationship of some kind. However, the suspicion on these relationships will remain as long as an indisputable physical mechanism, which might act to produce these correlations, is not available.  相似文献   

7.
Evidence of the solar activity modulation of the Earth’s climate has been observed on several parameters, from decadal to millennial time scales. Several proxies have been used to reconstruct the paleoclimate as well as the solar activity. The paleoclimate reconstructions are based on direct and/or indirect effects of global and regional climate conditions. The solar activity reconstructions are based on the production of the 14C isotope due to the interaction of cosmic ray flux and the Earth’s atmosphere. Because trees respond to climate conditions and store 14C, they have been used as proxies for both for climate and solar activity reconstructions. The imprints of solar activity cycles dating back to 10,000 years ago have been observed on tree-ring samples using 14C data, and those dating back to 20 million years ago have been analyzed using fossil tree-growth rings. All this corresponds to the Cenozoic era. However, solar activity imprints on tree rings from earlier than that era have not been investigated yet. In this work, we showed that tree rings from the Mesozoic Era (of ~200 million years ago) recorded 11- and 22-year cycles, which may be related to solar activity cycles, and that were statistically significant at the 95 % confidence level. The fossil wood was collected in the southern region of Brazil. Our analysis of the fossils' tree-ring width series power spectra showed characteristics similar to the modern araucaria tree, with a noticeable decadal periodicity. Assuming that the Earth’s climate responds to solar variability and that responses did not vary significantly over the last ~200 million years, we conclude that the solar–climate connection was likely present during the Mesozoic era.  相似文献   

8.
A non-stationary transient oscillating process of the solar magnetic field polarity reversal of ≈3 years in duration has been established: a U-shaped dynamics in the wavelet representation of variations in the scintillation index of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) (≈7, 13–14, and ≈7 solar rotations). The transient oscillating process of the field reversal is concluded with a sharp and deep decrease in the GCR intensity at the branch of 11-year cycle decline (1972, 1982, 1991, and 2003). The duration of the transient process inversely depends on the 11-year cycle amplitude. Retardation of relaxation oscillations during “weak” cycles (20 and 23) explains “anomalous” solar activity in 1972 and 2003. A decrease in the amplitude of the current cycle 23 is accompanied by an increase in its duration, which can mean that the 11-year cyclicity has become anomalous. The constancy of the energy released in a single cycle indicates that the 11-year cycle is the mechanism of energy regulation preventing the Sun from “overheating” at the critical temperature.  相似文献   

9.
The Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)contains a group of state-of-the-art climate models and represents the highest level of climate simulation thus far.However,these models significantly overestimated global mean surface temperature(GMST)during 2006-2014.Based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)method,the long term change of the observed GMST time series of HadCRUT4 records during 1850-2014 was analyzed,then the simulated GMST by 33 CMIP5 climate models was assessed.The possible reason that climate models failed to project the recent global warming hiatus was revealed.Results show that during 1850-2014 the GMST on a centennial timescale rose with fluctuation,dominated by the secular trend and the multi-decadal variability(MDV).The secular trend was relatively steady beginning in the early 20th century,with an average warming rate of 0.0883℃/decade over the last 50 years.While the MDV(with a~65-year cycle)showed2.5 multi-decadal waves during 1850-2014,which deepened and steepened with time,the alarming warming over the last quarter of the 20th century was a result of the concurrence of the secular warming trend and the warming phase of the MDV,both of which accounted one third of the temperature increase during 1975-1998.Recently the slowdown of global warming emerged as the MDV approached its third peak,leading to a reduction in the warming rate.A comparative analysis between the GMST time series derived from HadCRUT4 records and 33 CMIP5 model outputs reveals that the GMSTs during the historical simulation period of 1850-2005 can be reproduced well by models,especially on the accelerated global warming over the last quarter of 20th century.However,the projected GMSTs and their linear trends during 2006-2014 under the RCP4.5 scenario were significantly higher than observed.This is because the CMIP5 models confused the MDV with secular trend underlying the GMST time series,which results in a fast secular trend and an improper MDV with irregular phases and small amplitudes.This implies that the role of atmospheric CO_2 in global warming may be overestimated,while the MDV which is an interior oscillation of the climate system may be underestimated,which should be related to insufficient understanding of key climatic internal dynamic processes.Our study puts forward an important criterion for the new generation of climate models:they should be able to simulate both the secular trend and the MDV of GMST.  相似文献   

10.
This note points out a problem with the way in which extreme value distributions have been fit to the intensities of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle. An alternative method is described. This method is applied to observations of the three largest geomagnetic storms in solar cycles 11–22.  相似文献   

11.
The series of daily Ap-indices has been subdivided into pentades (1932–1936 etc.) and spectra with fine-frequency resolution have been calculated for the indices in each of these intervals. Daily sunspot numbers have been processed in the same way. The average spectrum from all spectra in the pentades, as well as the spectrum from the whole interval have been calculated, and significant peaks have been determined. There is a significant difference between the spectra in the pentades containing the solar activity minimum (1932–1936, 1942–1946 etc.) and those containing the solar activity maximum (1937–1941, 1947–1951 etc.). Most peaks can be interpreted as a response to solar rotation and to the structure of solar wind speed (two high-speed streams per solar rotation), both modulated by the 11-year, annual and semi-annual waves. No significant peak corresponding to the period of the synodic month, or its half has been found. This result suggests that the influence of lunar cycles on some natural phenomena (if any) is not mediated by geomagnetic activity.  相似文献   

12.
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The Maunder butterfly pattern is the most complete spatial-temporal representation of observed changes in solar activity in the 11-year cycle over a period of...  相似文献   

13.
The 22-year variation in the frequency of aurora occurrence is found through an analysis of data of the Russian network of meteorological stations from 1837–1909. This variation is obtained in a form of asymmetry between even and odd solar cycles. We found that the nature of the 22-year variation depends on the latitude of the observation station. The annual number N of midlatitude auroras (geomagnetic latitudes Φ < 56°) for about three years at the end of the descending part of solar cycles is larger for the even cycles than for the odd. For high-latitude auroras (Φ ≥ 56°), the pattern is opposite: at the descending part of the solar cycle, N is larger in the odd cycles than in the even. For the high-latitude sector, asymmetry of the polar sun cycles (the period between two magnetic field reversals) is clearly observed: an increased N is observed during the whole odd polar cycle (which starts approximately at the maximum of the odd Schwabe cycle) as compared to the even cycle. Extrapolation of the modern picture of alternation of the sign of the global solar magnetic field back in time leads to the conclusion that the most geoeffective polar cycles in cycles 8–14 were those in which the polar magnetic field in the northen hemisphere was negative.  相似文献   

14.
通过北极涛动AO正负位相时期北半球1000 hPa月平均位势高度、位势高度距平和气温月距平图对比分析可知,北极区域异常增暖时期对应着AO负位相时期,而北极区域异常偏冷时期对应着AO正位相时期,说明北极区域气温异常变化是决定AO异常变化的重要因子.逐次滤波法分析可知,冬季1月北极涛动现象表现出十分清楚的与太阳活动密切联系的准110a世纪周期和准22a年代际周期,具体表现为：（1）冬季1月北极涛动现象具有十分清楚的与太阳活动密切联系的准110a世纪周期.准110a世纪周期对于北极涛动指数的方差贡献率达到44.4%,是冬季1月北极涛动现象最显著的世纪际变化特征.（2）谱分析结果表明,滤除准110a世纪周期变化以后的1月北极涛动指数具有显著的22a周期,其方差贡献率达到18.5%,乃仅次于准110a世纪周期之后北极涛动指数年代际变化重要特征.对比分析表明,太阳活动尤其是太阳磁场磁性指数变化与1月北极涛动22a周期变化呈密切的反相关关系,二者变化趋势基本相反,即多数情况当太阳磁性指数MI由最低值转为上升以后都可引起北极涛动AO由最高值转为下降;当太阳磁性指数MI由最高值转为下降以后都可引起北极涛动AO由最低值转为上升.综上所述,北极涛动的准110a世纪周期变化、22a年代际周期变化对于北极涛动方差贡献率达到62.9%,标志着太阳活动是北极涛动的重要驱动因子.  相似文献   

15.
Tree-ring analysis is used successfully in studies of solar-terrestrial relations. We consider a linear dependence between the radial increment in conifers in Eastern Siberia and solar activity parameters: the length and amplitude of an 11-year solar cycle in the 20th century. It is shown that the increment in conifers in the region is larger in a longer and lower solar cycle than in a short and high one. A correlation between the increment in the width of annual rings of Pinus sylvestris and Siberian pine and the length of the ascending phase of an 11-year cycle is revealed: the longer the ascending phase, the larger the radial increment in conifers. The dynamics of the annual increment in conifers in the region is inversely related to the cycle amplitude and magnetic disturbances in the main solar cycle.  相似文献   

16.
Changes in the Earth's radiation budget are driven by changes in the balance between the thermal emission from the top of the atmosphere and the net sunlight absorbed. The shortwave radiation entering the climate system depends on the Sun's irradiance and the Earth's reflectance. Often, studies replace the net sunlight by proxy measures of solar irradiance, which is an oversimplification used in efforts to probe the Sun's role in past climate change. With new helioseismic data and new measures of the Earth's reflectance, we can usefully separate and constrain the relative roles of the net sunlight's two components, while probing the degree of their linkage. First, this is possible because helioseismic data provide the most precise measure ever of the solar cycle, which ultimately yields more profound physical limits on past irradiance variations. Since irradiance variations are apparently minimal, changes in the Earth's climate that seem to be associated with changes in the level of solar activity—the Maunder Minimum and the Little Ice age for example—would then seem to be due to terrestrial responses to more subtle changes in the Sun's spectrum of radiative output. This leads naturally to a linkage with terrestrial reflectance, the second component of the net sunlight, as the carrier of the terrestrial amplification of the Sun's varying output. Much progress has also been made in determining this difficult to measure, and not-so-well-known quantity. We review our understanding of these two closely linked, fundamental drivers of climate.  相似文献   

17.
It is shown that, over the past ～10000 years (the Holocene), deep Maunder type solar minima have been accompanied by sharp climate changes. These minima occurred every 2300–2400 years. It has been established experimentally that, at ca 4.0 ka BP, there occurred a global change in the structure of atmospheric circulation, which coincided in time with the discharge of glacial masses from Greenland to North Atlantic and a solar activity minimum. The climate changes that took place at ca 4.0 ka BP and the deep solar activity minimum that occurred at ca 2.5 ka BP affected the development of human society, leading to the degradation and destruction of a number of ancient civilizations.  相似文献   

18.
Ground Surface Temperature (GST) history in Poland was derived from the inversion of temperature-depth profiles in over 20 wells. Temperature histories for the period 1500 A.D. through 1977 A.D. agree well with the instrumental record of the surface-air temperature available for the last two centuries. A statistical correlation of the reconstructed histories (from the well temperature data) with the instrumental record (air temperature) from the homogeneous Warsaw series is high (>0.8). Functional space inversion (FSI) of the temperature data with depth shows that beginning in the early 19th century, temperatures warmed by 0.9 ± 0.1°C following a long period of colder climate before. The last number could be a minimal as higher warming was calculated using a simple model based on surface temperature for the observational period (homogenized Warsaw surface temperature series, Lorenc, 2000) and POM (pre-observational mean; Harris and Chapman, 1998) of –1.53oC below the 1951–1980 mean temperature level.  相似文献   

19.
The knowledge of the present-day underground temperatures may be important in the assessments of the past climate change. The method of inversion of the temperature-depth records into the ground surface temperature history is briefly introduced by showing an example of synthetic data and illustrated by a review of existing results obtained from the inversion of temperature logs measured in holes in the Czech Republic. Underground temperatures observed in holes of the depth of at least 1000–1500 m seem to confirm the preinstrumental climate pattern of the past several thousand years. Most of shallower temperature records (500–800 m) revealed general warming of climate followed the Little Ice Age of the 17–18th centuries and a pronounced increase of the soil temperatures by at least 1 K since the beginning of this century.  相似文献   

20.
The Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 instruments measured solar spectral UV irradiance during the maximum and declining phase of solar cycle 22. The SSBUV data accurately represent the absolute solar UV irradiance between 200–405 nm, and also show the long-term variations during eight flights between October 1989 and January 1996. These data have been used to correct long-term sensitivity changes in the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 data, which provide a near-daily record of solar UV variations over the 170–400 nm region between December 1988 and October 1994. The NOAA-11 data demonstrate the evolution of short-term solar UV activity during solar cycle 22.  相似文献   

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