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准确预报地球自转变化对于精密定位、空间飞行器的跟踪与正常运行,具有重要的科学意义和实用价值。根据周日变化（UT1-UTC）和极移变化（PM）的特性,用最小二乘法,建立了适合于UT1-UTC和PM趋势项和周期项观测数据的拟合模型。对于UT1-UTC残差序列采用差分自回归移动平均（ARIMA）模型进行预报,对于PM残差采用季节性自回归移动平均（SARMA）模型进行预报。实例结果表明：我们的UT卜UTC预报结果比地球自转服务（IERS）产品好,而PM比IERS要差一些。当大气角动量（AAM）和海洋角动量（OAM）数据参与计算后,对UT卜UTC的预报有细微改善,对PM无改善。 相似文献
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本文介绍了建立刚体地球章动序列的地球物理方法。依据固体潮的理论，建立了一个新的刚体地球章动序列，章动项的系数截断到０．０００１ｍａｓ，在考虑二阶效应的情况下，一共包括了３０４项。 相似文献
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海洋角动量变化与洋流、海水质量分布变化密切相关。基于美国马里兰大学SODA海洋同化资料 ,研究了 1985～ 2 0 0 1年期间全球赤道海洋角动量的变化。从数月到年际时间尺度 ,固体地球、大气、陆地水和海洋总角动量守恒。从固体地球角动量变化中扣除大气和陆地水角动量变化的影响 ,可以为海洋角动量的变化提供约束 ,用于检验所得全球海洋角动量变化的准确性。季节尺度上的分析比对显示 ,在赤道的格林尼治方向上 ,海洋角动量变化大于大气角动量变化 ,并与约束序列的变化具有高度一致性 ;在赤道东经 90°方向上 ,海洋角动量变化比大气角动量变化小一个数量级 ,并与 1985～ 1992年的约束变化呈现出一定的相似性 相似文献
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作为一个旋转的扁椭球体,地球的动力学扁率J2变化主要是由各圈层相互作用和地球系统的物质流动所引起。当前,测定地球动力学扁率主要是通过卫星激光测距资料获得。本文利用GRACE月重力场模型、海底气压模型和冰期均衡调整模型等估计地球动力学扁率月变化ΔJ2,通过计算得到的C20时间序列与卫星激光测距(SLR)结果差别不大。通过计算分析,可以看出使用不同机构发布的GRACE数据产品,得到的季节变化时间序列的结果差别不大,与SLR结果非常接近,得出的C20时间序列在SLR方差百分比达70%。 相似文献
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《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2016,(1)
利用GAMIT软件处理了2005年9月、2006年1月和2月每天17个IGS国际GNSS服务(International GNSS Service,IGS)站的GPS观测数据,获得了地球自转参数(Earth rotation parameter,ERP)和日长变化(ΔLOD),并与IGS综合解进行了对比。利用OCCAM 6.2软件处理了相同时间内的甚长基线干涉测量(very long baseline interferometry,VLBI)观测数据,将解算结果与国际VLBI服务(International VLBI Service,IVS)结果进行了对比。分别采用基于内符合精度和IERS 08C04序列的定权方法对VLBI解算结果与GPS解算结果进行了加权平均,获得了VLBI和GPS技术对ERP和ΔLOD的协议结果。研究结果表明,VLBI解算结果与采用的插值方法有较大的关系,基于IERS 08C04序列的加权平均方法达到了利用VLBI解算结果对GPS解算结果进行修正的目的。VLBI和GPS技术的联合弥补了VLBI观测数据密度不够和GPS解算结果不稳定的缺陷,使解算结果的稳定性和可靠性有所提高。 相似文献
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根据地球自转参数时间序列的特性,给出了自回归滑动平均模型的识别方法,在自回归滑动平均模型参数估算中采用了长自回归白噪化方法,试验分析表明,采用该方法进行参数估计时具有简便较为有效的特点,同时,该方法的另一个特点是全部求解过程都是解线性方程组,避免了非线性运算。为减少地球自转参数时间序列相邻数据的强相关性,先扣除地球自转参数时间序列的趋势项和周期项,再对残差序列进行差分处理,最后利用自回归滑动平均模型对地球自转参数进行短期预报,有效验证了上述算法的可行性及正确性,地球自转参数短期预报结果与地球自转服务产品相当。 相似文献
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GPS掩星数据反演中的地球扁率影响改正 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
采用CHAMP实测轨道数据和MSISE-90经验干大气模型，分别将地球作为圆球和椭球，前向模拟了附加相位延迟，然后对模拟数据进行反演。通过不同方案下反演温度廓线与大气模型温度廓线的比较，发现实测掩星数据的反演中，忽略地球扁率影响会给温度反演结果带来较大的误差；而采用相应方法对地球扁率影响进行改正后，温度廓线的误差明显减弱，从而证明了改正方法的正确性。 相似文献
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月球平均运动和地球自转速率长期变化的潮汐耗散 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用1983～1994年(共11年)期间,全球人卫激光测距(SLR)观测网对Lageos-1卫星的观测资料,估算二阶重力场系数和潮汐参数。SLR和卫星测高的潮汐解被用来计算月球轨道根数相对黄道坐标系的长期变化和地球自转速率的长期变化。SLR确定的总的潮汐耗散引起的月球平均运动的长期变化为-24.78″/世纪2,与激光测月结果（(-24.9±1.0)″/世纪2) 非常一致。日月潮汐引起的地球自转速率的长期变化为 -5.25×10-22rad /s2,顾及地球扁率变化（2）的非潮汐效应,对应的日长变化为1.49 ms/世纪,与1620年以来的天文月掩星结果（1.4 ms/世纪）十分相符。本文还联合卫星测高和人卫激光测距确定的潮汐解,在月球平均运动和地球自转速率的长期变化中,分离出固体地球和海洋的耗散效应。 相似文献
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搜集了全球约4 000个GNSS测站实测数据(站坐标和速度场信息),对固体地球体积及其变化率进行计算分析。采用板块运动模型插值方法对台站进行插值,使全球测站分布更加均匀。利用Delaunay数学模型计算固体地球体积及其变化率的结果发现:基于板块运动模型进行台站插值可以有效地提高计算结果的误差精度,不会对地球最终形态变化结论产生影响,台站数量及其分布均匀程度对计算最终结果影响较大。 相似文献
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Atmospheric Angular Momentum Time-Series: Characterization of their Internal Noise and Creation of a Combined Series 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The atmosphere induces variations in Earth rotation. These effects are classically computed using the “angular momentum approach”. In this method, the variations in Earth rotation are estimated from the variations in the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM). Several AAM time-series are available from different meteorological centers. However, the estimation of atmospheric effects on Earth rotation differs when using one atmospheric model or the other. The purpose of this work is to build an objective criterion that justifies the use of one series in particular. Because the atmosphere is not the only cause of Earth rotation variations, this criterion cannot rely only on a comparison of AAM series with geodetic data. Instead, we determine the quality of each series by making an estimation of their noise level, using a generalized formulation of the “three-cornered hat method”. We show the existence of a link between the noise of the AAM series and their correlation with geodetic data: a noisy series is usually less correlated with Earth orientation data. As the quality of the series varies in time, we construct a combined AAM series, using time-dependent weights chosen so that the noise level of the combined series is minimal. To determine the influence of a minimal noise level on the correlation with geodetic data, we compute the correlation between the combined series and Earth orientation data. We note that the combined series is always amongst the best correlated series, which confirms the link established before. The quality criterion, while totally independent of Earth orientation observations, appears to be physically convincing when atmospheric and geodetic data are compared 相似文献
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E. Groten 《Journal of Geodesy》1968,42(2):227-239
Summary It is shown that the divergence of the spherical harmonics series of the geopotential V at the earth’s surface does not have
any limiting consequences for the corresponding finite series in satellite geodesy as well as for the solution of the boundary
value problem of physical geodesy if a finite set of observations is used. The usefulness of the multiples series of V for
the study of secular variations of the gravity field is stressed.
Publ. No. 49, Institut für Astronomische und Physikalische Geod?sie, Technische Hochschule München. 相似文献
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Real-time orbit determination and interplanetary navigation require accurate predictions of the orientation of the Earth in
the celestial reference frame and in particular that for Universal Time UT1. Much of the UT1 variations over periods ranging
from hours to a couple of years are due to the global atmospheric circulation. Therefore, the axial atmospheric angular momentum
(AAM) forecast series may be used as a proxy index to predict UT1. Our approach taking advantage of this fact is based on
an adaptive procedure. It involves incorporating integrations of AAM estimates into UT1 series. The procedure runs on a routine
basis using AAM forecasts that are based on the two meteorological series, from the US National Centers for Environmental
Prediction and the Japan Meteorological Agency. It is pertinent to test the prediction method for the period that includes
the special CONT08 campaign over which we expect a significant improvement in UT1 accuracy. The studies we carried out were
aimed both to compare atmospheric forecasts and analyses, as well as to compare the skills of the UT1 forecasts based on the
method with atmospheric forecasts and that using current statistical processes, as applied to the C04 Earth orientation parameters
series derived by the International Earth rotation and Reference Systems service (IERS). Here we neglect the oceanic sub-diurnal
and diurnal variations, as these signals are expected to be smaller than the UT1-equivalent of 100 μs, when averaged over a few days. The prediction performances for a 2-day forecast are similar, but at a forecast horizon of
a week, the AAM-based forecast is roughly twice as skillful as the statistically based one. 相似文献
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M. Kalarus H. Schuh W. Kosek O. Akyilmaz Ch. Bizouard D. Gambis R. Gross B. Jovanović S. Kumakshev H. Kutterer P. J. Mendes Cerveira S. Pasynok L. Zotov 《Journal of Geodesy》2010,84(10):587-596
Precise transformations between the international celestial and terrestrial reference frames are needed for many advanced geodetic and astronomical tasks including positioning and navigation on Earth and in space. To perform this transformation at the time of observation, that is for real-time applications, accurate predictions of the Earth orientation parameters (EOP) are needed. The Earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign (EOP PCC) that started in October 2005 was organized for the purpose of assessing the accuracy of EOP predictions. This paper summarizes the results of the EOP PCC after nearly two and a half years of operational activity. The ultra short-term (predictions to 10 days into the future), short-term (30 days), and medium-term (500 days) EOP predictions submitted by the participants were evaluated by the same statistical technique based on the mean absolute prediction error using the IERS EOP 05 C04 series as a reference. A combined series of EOP predictions computed as a weighted mean of all submissions available at a given prediction epoch was also evaluated. The combined series is shown to perform very well, as do some of the individual series, especially those using atmospheric angular momentum forecasts. A main conclusion of the EOP PCC is that no single prediction technique performs the best for all EOP components and all prediction intervals. 相似文献
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J. Höpfner 《Journal of Geodesy》2001,75(2-3):137-150
The annual and semiannual residuals derived in the axial angular momentum budget of the solid Earth–atmosphere system reflect
significant signals. They must be caused by further excitation sources. Since, in particular, the contribution for the wind
term from the atmospheric layer between the 10 and 0.3 hPa levels to the seasonal variations in length of day (LOD) is still
missing, it is necessary to extend the top level into the upper stratosphere up to 0.3 hPa. Under the conservation of the
total angular momentum of the entire Earth, variations in the oceanic angular momentum (OAM) and the hydrological angular
momentum (HAM) are further significant excitation sources at seasonal time scales. Focusing on other contributions to the
Earth's axial angular momentum budget, the following data are used in this study: axial atmospheric angular momentum (AAM)
data derived for the 10–0.3 hPa layer from 1991 to 1997 for computing the missing wind effects; axial OAM functions as generated
by oceanic general circulation models (GCMs), namely for the ECHAM3 and the MICOM models, available from 1975 to 1994 and
from 1992 to 1994, respectively, for computing the oceanic contributions to LOD changes, and, concerning the HAM variations,
the seasonal estimates of the hydrological contribution as derived by Chao and O'Connor [(1988) Geophys J 94: 263–270]. Using
vector representation, it is shown that the vectors achieve a close balance in the global axial angular momentum budget within
the estimated uncertainties of the momentum quantities on seasonal time scales.
Received: 6 April 2000 / Accepted: 13 December 2000 相似文献
18.
The derivatives of the Earth gravitational potential are considered in the global Cartesian Earth-fixed reference frame. Spherical
harmonic series are constructed for the potential derivatives of the first and second orders on the basis of a general expression
of Cunningham (Celest Mech 2:207–216, 1970) for arbitrary order derivatives of a spherical harmonic. A common structure of
the series for the potential and its first- and second-order derivatives allows to develop a general procedure for constructing
similar series for the potential derivatives of arbitrary orders. The coefficients of the derivatives are defined by means
of recurrence relations in which a coefficient of a certain order derivative is a linear function of two coefficients of a
preceding order derivative. The coefficients of the second-order derivatives are also presented as explicit functions of three
coefficients of the potential. On the basis of the geopotential model EGM2008, the spherical harmonic coefficients are calculated
for the first-, second-, and some third-order derivatives of the disturbing potential T, representing the full potential V, after eliminating from it the zero- and first-degree harmonics. The coefficients of two lowest degrees in the series for
the derivatives of T are presented. The corresponding degree variances are estimated. The obtained results can be applied for solving various
problems of satellite geodesy and celestial mechanics. 相似文献
19.
This research represents a continuation of the investigation carried out in the paper of Petrovskaya and Vershkov (J Geod 84(3):165–178, 2010) where conventional spherical harmonic series are constructed for arbitrary order derivatives of the Earth gravitational potential in the terrestrial reference frame. The problem of converting the potential derivatives of the first and second orders into geopotential models is studied. Two kinds of basic equations for solving this problem are derived. The equations of the first kind represent new non-singular non-orthogonal series for the geopotential derivatives, which are constructed by means of transforming the intermediate expressions for these derivatives from the above-mentioned paper. In contrast to the spherical harmonic expansions, these alternative series directly depend on the geopotential coefficients ${\bar{{C}}_{n,m}}$ and ${\bar{{S}}_{n,m}}$ . Each term of the series for the first-order derivatives is represented by a sum of these coefficients, which are multiplied by linear combinations of at most two spherical harmonics. For the second-order derivatives, the geopotential coefficients are multiplied by linear combinations of at most three spherical harmonics. As compared to existing non-singular expressions for the geopotential derivatives, the new expressions have a more simple structure. They depend only on the conventional spherical harmonics and do not depend on the first- and second-order derivatives of the associated Legendre functions. The basic equations of the second kind are inferred from the linear equations, constructed in the cited paper, which express the coefficients of the spherical harmonic series for the first- and second-order derivatives in terms of the geopotential coefficients. These equations are converted into recurrent relations from which the coefficients ${\bar{{C}}_{n,m}}$ and ${\bar{{S}}_{n,m}}$ are determined on the basis of the spherical harmonic coefficients of each derivative. The latter coefficients can be estimated from the values of the geopotential derivatives by the quadrature formulas or the least-squares approach. The new expressions of two kinds can be applied for spherical harmonic synthesis and analysis. In particular, they might be incorporated in geopotential modeling on the basis of the orbit data from the CHAMP, GRACE and GOCE missions, and the gradiometry data from the GOCE mission. 相似文献
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Analytical versus semi-analytical determinations of the Oppolzer terms for a non-rigid Earth 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Estimations of the Oppolzer terms for the angular momentum and rotation axes of a non-rigid Earth are obtained from two different
approaches and compared. The first approach is an analytical method which relies on the solutions of the Liouville equations
for a two-layer Earth model. The Oppolzer terms are evaluated from analytical expressions. The results are then compared to
those calculated from Wahr's theory of nutation for a non-rigid Earth, which is the second approach used. Results are obtained
for the main nutation frequencies and for the precession case. The differences between the two solutions are generally quite
small (the relative error is most of the time under 8%) and are, for a large part, due to successive approximations and truncation
effects during their determination. Departures of the results from the two methods are significantly larger for frequencies
near the Free Core Nutation (FCN) resonance. This is particularly true for the Oppolzer terms of the angular momentum axis.
The Earth model adopted is a little bit different in each case: for the Liouville system solution, we have limited the model
to a homogeneous elastic mantle and a homogeneous liquid core. Another source of some of the small differences in the results
is the presence of a solid inner core in Wahr's theory. We confirm through the analytical calculation the strong effect of
the core on the Oppolzer terms of the angular momentum axis for a non-rigid Earth at the precession frequency. Finally, an
application is given in the determination of the axes' position at J2000 for a non-rigid Earth.
Received: 23 February 1998 /Accepted: 18 November 1998 相似文献