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1.
We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.  相似文献   

2.
A search for any particular feature in any single solar neutrino dataset is unlikely to establish variability of the solar neutrino flux since the count rates are very low. It helps to combine datasets, and in this article we examine data from both the Homestake and GALLEX experiments. These show evidence of modulation with a frequency of 11.85 year−1, which could be indicative of rotational modulation originating in the solar core. We find that precisely the same frequency is prominent in power spectrum analyses of the ACRIM irradiance data for both the Homestake and GALLEX time intervals. These results suggest that the solar core is inhomogeneous and rotates with a sidereal frequency of 12.85 year−1. From Monte Carlo calculations, it is found that the probability that the neutrino data would by chance match the irradiance data in this way is only 2 parts in 10 000. This rotation rate is significantly lower than that of the inner radiative zone (13.97 year−1) as recently inferred from analysis of Super-Kamiokande data, suggesting that there may be a second, inner tachocline separating the core from the radiative zone. This opens up the possibility that there may be an inner dynamo that could produce a strong internal magnetic field and a second solar cycle.  相似文献   

3.
The Solar Guide Telescope (SGT), an important solar attitude sensor of the SST (Space Solar Telescope, a space solar observing instrument being developed in China), can accurately produce pointing error signals of the SST for attitude control at high speed. We analyze in detail the error algorithm of the heliocentric coordinates and the edge judging of solar images. The measuring accuracy of ±0.5 arcsec of the SGT is verified by experiments on the tracking of the Sun and by testing a sun simulator. Some factors causing the pointing errors are examined.  相似文献   

4.
Estimating the Size and Timing of the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
A simple statistical method is used to estimate the size and timing of maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle (cycle 24). Presuming cycle 23 to be a short cycle (as is more likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about December 2006 (±2 months) and the maximum, around March 2011 (±9 months), and the amplitude is 189.9 ±15.5, if it is a fast riser, or about 136, if it is a slow riser. If we presume cycle 23 to be a long cycle (as is less likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about June 2008 (±2 months) and the maximum, about February 2013 (±8 months) and the maximum will be about 137 or 80, according as the cycle is a fast riser or a slow riser.  相似文献   

5.
The Relation between the Amplitude and the Period of Solar Cycles   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
The maximum amplitudes of solar activity cycles are found to be well anti-correlated (r = -0.72) with the newly defined solar cycle lengths three cycles before (at lag -3) in 13-month running mean sunspot numbers during the past 190 years. This result could be used for predicting the maximum sunspot numbers. The amplitudes of Cycles 24 and 25 are estimated to be 149.5±27.6 and 144.3±27.6, respectively.  相似文献   

6.
We have calculated the orbital parameters for 90 stars in Chen et al. and updated the kinematic data for stars in Edvardsson et al. by using the accurate Hipparcos parallaxes and proper motions, and recalculated the \\\\\\\\\\\\-element abundances in Edvardsson et al. in a way consistent with Chen et al. The two sets of data are combined in a study of stellar populations and characteristics of F & G stars in the solar neighborhood. We confirm the result of Chen et al. that a distinguishable group of stars may belong to the thick disk rather than the thin disk. The ages for the stars are determined using the theoretical isochrones of VandenBerg et al. The age-metallicity relation is investigated for different subgroups according to distance from the sun and galactic orbital parameters. It is found that a mixing of stars with different orbital parameters significantly affect the age-metallicity relation for the disk. Stars with orbits confined to the solar circle all have metallicities [Fe/H] > -0.3 irresp  相似文献   

7.
In order to investigate the relationship between magnetic-flux emergence, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we study the periodicity in the time series of these quantities. It has been known that solar flares, sunspot area, and photospheric magnetic flux have a dominant periodicity of about 155 days, which is confined to a part of the phase of the solar cycle. These periodicities occur at different phases of the solar cycle during successive phases. We present a time-series analysis of sunspot area, flare and CME occurrence during Cycle 23 and the rising phase of Cycle 24 from 1996 to 2011. We find that the flux emergence, represented by sunspot area, has multiple periodicities. Flares and CMEs, however, do not occur with the same period as the flux emergence. Using the results of this study, we discuss the possible activity sources producing emerging flux.  相似文献   

8.
We demonstrate that a simple solar dynamo model, in the form of a Parker migratory dynamo with random fluctuations of the dynamo governing parameters and algebraic saturation of dynamo action, can at least qualitatively reproduce all the basic features of solar Grand Minima as they are known from direct and indirect data. In particular, the model successfully reproduces such features as an abrupt transition into a Grand Minimum and the subsequent gradual recovery of solar activity, as well as mixed-parity butterfly diagrams during the epoch of the Grand Minimum. The model predicts that the cycle survives in some form during a Grand Minimum, as well as the relative stability of the cycle inside and outside of a Grand Minimum. The long-term statistics of simulated Grand Minima appears compatible with the phenomenology of the Grand Minima inferred from the cosmogenic isotope data. We demonstrate that such ability to reproduce the Grand Minima phenomenology is not a general feature of the dynamo models but requires some specific assumption, such as random fluctuations in dynamo governing parameters. In general, we conclude that a relatively simple and straightforward model is able to reproduce the Grand Minima phenomenology remarkably well, in principle providing us with a possibility of studying the physical nature of Grand Minima.  相似文献   

9.
The distribution of the shocks in the heliosphere and their characteristic variations are investigated using Ulysses observations. The jumps in solar wind velocity, IMF magnitude, and proton density across the shocks and discontinuities are evaluated and used to characterize them. The distribution of these discontinuities with respect to heliolatitude ± 80° and with radial distance 1 to 5 AU are analyzed during solar minimum and solar maximum to understand their global behavior. It is noticed that the jumps in solar wind parameters associated with shocks and discontinuities are more prominent during the second orbit of Ulysses, which coincided with the maximum phase of solar activity.  相似文献   

10.
A new solar telescope system is described, which has been operating at Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS), National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), since the end of 2005. This instrument, the Solar Magnetism and Activity Telescope (SMAT), comprises two telescopes which respectively make measurements of full solar disk vector magnetic field and Hα observation. The core of the full solar disk video vector magnetograph is a birefringent filter with 0.1  bandpass, installed in the tele-centric optical system of the telescope. We present some preliminary observational results of the full solar disk vector magnetograms and Hα filtergrams obtained with this telescope system.  相似文献   

11.
Designing a statistical solar flare forecasting technique can benefit greatly from knowledge of the flare frequency of occurrence with respect to sunspot groups. This study analyzed sunspot groups and Hα and X-ray flares reported for the period 1997 – 2007. Annual catalogs were constructed, listing the days that numbered sunspot groups were observed (designated sunspot group-days, SSG-Ds) and for each day a record for each associated Hα flare of importance category one or greater and normal or bright brightness and for each X-ray flare of intensity C 5 or higher. The catalogs were then analyzed to produce frequency distributions of SSG-Ds by year, sunspot group class, likelihood of producing at least one flare overall and by sunspot group class, and frequency of occurrence of numbers of flares per day and flare intensity category. Only 3% of SSG-Ds produced a substantial Hα flare and 7% had a significant X-ray flare. We found that mature, complex sunspot groups were more likely than simple sunspot groups to produce a flare, but the latter were more prevalent than the former. More than half of the SSG-Ds with flares had a maximum intensity flare greater than the lowest category (C-class of intensity five and higher). The fact that certain sunspot group classes had flaring probabilities significantly higher than the combined probabilities of the intensity categories when all SSG-Ds were considered suggest that it might be best to first predict the flaring probability. For sunspot groups found likely to flare, a separate diagnosis of maximum flare intensity category appears feasible.  相似文献   

12.
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13.
Ming Xiong  Xing Li 《Solar physics》2012,279(1):231-251
Using linear Vlasov theory of plasma waves and quasi-linear theory of resonant wave–particle interaction, the dispersion relations and the electromagnetic field fluctuations of fast and Alfvén waves are studied for a low-beta multi-ion plasma in the inner corona. Their probable roles in heating and accelerating the solar wind via Landau and cyclotron resonances are quantified. In this paper, we assume that i) low-frequency Alfvén and fast waves, emanating from the solar surface, have the same spectral shape and the same amplitude of power spectral density (PSD); ii) these waves eventually reach ion cyclotron frequencies due to a turbulence cascade; iii) kinetic wave–particle interaction powers the solar wind. The existence of alpha particles in a dominant proton/electron plasma can trigger linear mode conversion between oblique fast-whistler and hybrid alpha–proton cyclotron waves. The fast-cyclotron waves undergo both alpha and proton cyclotron resonances. The alpha cyclotron resonance in fast-cyclotron waves is much stronger than that in Alfvén-cyclotron waves. For alpha cyclotron resonance, an oblique fast-cyclotron wave has a larger left-handed electric field fluctuation, a smaller wave number, a larger local wave amplitude, and a greater energization capability than a corresponding Alfvén-cyclotron wave at the same wave propagation angle θ, particularly at 80°<θ<90°. When Alfvén-cyclotron or fast-cyclotron waves are present, alpha particles are the chief energy recipient. The transition of preferential energization from alpha particles to protons may be self-modulated by a differential speed and a temperature anisotropy of alpha particles via the self-consistently evolving wave–particle interaction. Therefore, fast-cyclotron waves, as a result of linear mode coupling, constitute a potentially important mechanism for preferential energization of minor ions in the main acceleration region of the solar wind.  相似文献   

14.
The famous extreme solar and particle event of 20 January 2005 is analyzed from two perspectives. Firstly, using multi-spectral data, we study temporal, spectral, and spatial features of the main phase of the flare, when the strongest emissions from microwaves up to 200 MeV gamma-rays were observed. Secondly, we relate our results to a long-standing controversy on the origin of solar energetic particles (SEP) arriving at Earth, i.e., acceleration in flares, or shocks ahead of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Our analysis shows that all electromagnetic emissions from microwaves up to 2.22 MeV line gamma-rays during the main flare phase originated within a compact structure located just above sunspot umbrae. In particular, a huge (≈ 105 sfu) radio burst with a high frequency maximum at 30 GHz was observed, indicating the presence of a large number of energetic electrons in very strong magnetic fields. Thus, protons and electrons responsible for various flare emissions during its main phase were accelerated within the magnetic field of the active region. The leading, impulsive parts of the ground-level enhancement (GLE), and highest-energy gamma-rays identified with π 0-decay emission, are similar and closely correspond in time. The origin of the π 0-decay gamma-rays is argued to be the same as that of lower-energy emissions, although this is not proven. On the other hand, we estimate the sky-plane speed of the CME to be 2 000 – 2 600 km s−1, i.e., high, but of the same order as preceding non-GLE-related CMEs from the same active region. Hence, the flare itself rather than the CME appears to determine the extreme nature of this event. We therefore conclude that the acceleration, at least, to sub-relativistic energies, of electrons and protons, responsible for both the major flare emissions and the leading spike of SEP/GLE by 07 UT, are likely to have occurred nearly simultaneously within the flare region. However, our analysis does not rule out a probable contribution from particles accelerated in the CME-driven shock for the leading GLE spike, which seemed to dominate at later stages of the SEP event. S.N. Kuznetsov deceased 17 May 2007.  相似文献   

15.
The intensities and timescales of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events at 1 AU may depend not only on the characteristics of shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), but also on large-scale coronal and interplanetary structures. It has long been suspected that the presence of coronal holes (CHs) near the CMEs or near the 1-AU magnetic footpoints may be an important factor in SEP events. We used a group of 41 E≈ 20 MeV SEP events with origins near the solar central meridian to search for such effects. First we investigated whether the presence of a CH directly between the sources of the CME and of the magnetic connection at 1 AU is an important factor. Then we searched for variations of the SEP events among different solar wind (SW) stream types: slow, fast, and transient. Finally, we considered the separations between CME sources and CH footpoint connections from 1 AU determined from four-day forecast maps based on Mount Wilson Observatory and the National Solar Observatory synoptic magnetic-field maps and the Wang–Sheeley–Arge model of SW propagation. The observed in-situ magnetic-field polarities and SW speeds at SEP event onsets tested the forecast accuracies employed to select the best SEP/CH connection events for that analysis. Within our limited sample and the three analytical treatments, we found no statistical evidence for an effect of CHs on SEP event peak intensities, onset times, or rise times. The only exception is a possible enhancement of SEP peak intensities in magnetic clouds.  相似文献   

16.
Kan Liou  Chin-Chun Wu 《Solar physics》2016,291(12):3777-3792
Interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind plasma density observed at 1 AU during Solar Cycle 23?–?24 (SC-23/24) minimum were significantly smaller than those during its previous solar cycle (SC-22/23) minimum. Because the Earth’s orbit is embedded in the slow wind during solar minimum, changes in the geometry and/or content of the slow wind region (SWR) can have a direct influence on the solar wind parameters near the Earth. In this study, we analyze solar wind plasma and magnetic field data of hourly values acquired by Ulysses. It is found that the solar wind, when averaging over the first (1995.6?–?1995.8) and third (2006.9?–?2008.2) Ulysses’ perihelion (\({\sim}\,1.4~\mbox{AU}\)) crossings, was about the same speed, but significantly less dense (\({\sim}\,34~\%\)) and cooler (\({\sim}\,20~\%\)), and the total magnetic field was \({\sim}\,30~\%\) weaker during the third compared to the first crossing. It is also found that the SWR was \({\sim}\,50~\%\) wider in the third (\({\sim}\,68.5^{\circ}\) in heliographic latitude) than in the first (\({\sim}\,44.8^{\circ}\)) solar orbit. The observed latitudinal increase in the SWR is sufficient to explain the excessive decline in the near-Earth solar wind density during the recent solar minimum without speculating that the total solar output may have been decreasing. The observed SWR inflation is also consistent with a cooler solar wind in the SC-23/24 than in the SC-22/23 minimum. Furthermore, the ratio of the high-to-low latitude photospheric magnetic field (or equatorward magnetic pressure force), as observed by the Mountain Wilson Observatory, is smaller during the third than the first Ulysses’ perihelion orbit. These findings suggest that the smaller equatorward magnetic pressure at the Sun may have led to the latitudinally-wider SRW observed by Ulysses in SC-23/24 minimum.  相似文献   

17.
Reviews of long-term predictions of solar cycles have shown that a precise prediction with a lead time of 2 years or more of a solar cycle remains an unsolved problem. We used a simple method, the method of similar cycles, to make long-term predictions of not only the maximum amplitude but also the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for every month of Solar Cycle 23. We verify and compare our prediction with the latest available observational results.  相似文献   

18.
Solar activity during 2007?–?2009 was very low, causing anomalously low thermospheric density. A comparison of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance in the He?ii spectral band (26 to 34 nm) from the Solar Extreme ultraviolet Monitor (SEM), one of instruments on the Charge Element and Isotope Analysis System (CELIAS) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) for the two latest solar minima showed a decrease of the absolute irradiance of about 15±6 % during the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24 compared with the Cycle 22/23 minimum when a yearly running-mean filter was used. We found that some local, shorter-term minima including those with the same absolute EUV flux in the SEM spectral band show a higher concentration of spatial power in the global network structure from the 30.4 nm SOHO/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) images for the local minimum of 1996 compared with the minima of 2008?–?2011. We interpret this higher concentration of spatial power in the transition region’s global network structure as a larger number of larger-area features on the solar disk. These changes in the global network structure during solar minima may characterize, in part, the geo-effectiveness of the solar He?ii EUV irradiance in addition to the estimations based on its absolute levels.  相似文献   

19.
We investigate the organization of the low energy energetic particles (≤1 MeV) by solar wind structures, in particular corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and shocks driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejections, during the declining-to-minimum phase of Solar Cycle 23 from Carrington rotation 1999 to 2088 (January 2003 to October 2009). Because CIR-associated particles are very prominent during the solar minimum, the unusually long solar minimum period of this current cycle provides an opportunity to examine the overall organization of CIR energetic particles for a much longer period than during any other minimum since the dawn of the Space Age. We find that the particle enhancements associated with CIRs this minimum period recurred for many solar rotations, up to 30 at times, due to several high-speed solar wind streams that persisted. However, very few significant CIR-related energetic particle enhancements were observed towards the end of our study period, reflecting the overall weak high-speed streams that occurred at this time. We also contrast the solar minimum observations with the declining phase when a number of solar energetic particle events occurred, producing a mixed particle population. In addition, we compare the observations from this minimum period with those from the previous solar cycle. One of the main differences we find is the shorter recurrence rate of the high-speed solar wind streams (～10 solar rotations) and the related CIR energetic particle enhancements for the Solar Cycle 22 minimum period. Overall our study provides insight into the coexistence of different populations of energetic particles, as well as an overview of the large-scale organization of the energetic particle populations approaching the beginning of Solar Cycle 24.  相似文献   

20.
The study on the 1.3–1.7 yr period of the solar and geomagnetic activities is very important for understanding the possible physical processes in the solar-terrestrial coupling system. The sunspot is the most prominent magnetic field structure in the solar photosphere, and the Ap index is an important indicator for the global geomagnetic activity level. The 1.3–1.7 yr period for the sunspot number and the geomagnetic Ap index is obtained by the synchro-squeezing wavelet transform, and the phase relationship between them is studied by the cross-correlation analysis. The main results are as follows: (1) The 1.3–1.7 yr period of the geomagnetic Ap index and sunspot number exhibits an intermittent evolutionary characteristics, and changes continuously with the time; (2) the geomagnetic Ap index has a higher periodic component in the odd solar cycles than the neighboring even solar cycles, which is characterized by fluctuations; (3) the phase relationship between the geomagnetic Ap index and the sunspot number is not always invariant, in most cases the geomagnetic Ap index lags behind the sunspot number, except in the 18th and 22th solar cycles.  相似文献   

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