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1.
This paper examines the use of multi‐agent simulations (MAS) to model the petrol market. The development of a purely agent based model for petrol prices is presented. Failings within this model are discussed and an alternative strategy for controlling the price of each petrol station based on population of customers is considered. Individual level modelling of customers is too computationally intensive; therefore a spatial interaction model was used to estimate the sales and linked to the agent system to create a hybrid model. To evaluate how effective this hybrid model was, a comparison was made with an existing data set of real petrol prices collected over a two month period. This was achieved both statistically and visually with the use of a Geographical Information System (GIS). Experimentation revealed that the hybrid model outperformed the agent model. Investigation into the behaviour and sensitivity of the system (for example, how prices diffuse spatially) was undertaken by means of idealised simulations.  相似文献   

2.
House prices fluctuate spatiotemporally and when influential changes from a region happen, the effects spread out in space over time. Although many studies have introduced various models to explain the spatiotemporal dynamics in housing markets, it is always challenging to consider both dimensions in a model. Some recent studies have identified spatiotemporal interactions of house prices by combining spatial and temporal models via spatial vector autoregression. The approach, however, assumes spatial homogeneity of the variables due to insufficient degrees of freedom. Since the housing market is generally conceived as heterogeneous, we suggest an alternative model of the spatial vector autoregressive Lasso without the homogeneity assumption. As an empirical example, we examine the spatiotemporal interaction between house sales price and rent in Seoul, Korea. The results show that rent for apartments in Gangnam‐gu, a socioeconomic core of Seoul, has positive impacts on rent for apartments in surrounding suburbs rather than their sales price. Moreover, the suggested model outperforms the classical method in terms of explanation, prediction, and autocorrelation of residuals. This research is expected to provide a methodological guide to explore the interaction between house sales price and rent, and insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of the housing market in Seoul.  相似文献   

3.
Environmental processes are usually conceptualized as complex systems whose dynamics are best understood by examining the relationships and interactions of their constituent parts. The cellular automata paradigm, as a bottom‐up modeling approach, has been widely used to study the macroscopic behavior of these complex natural processes. However, the cellular automata models are largely restricted to the two‐dimensional spatial perspective even though the process dynamics they represent evolve in the three spatial dimensions. The objective of this study is to develop a voxel‐based automata approach for modeling the propagation of airborne pollutants in three‐dimensional space over time. The GIS‐based geo‐atom theory was used to manage the data within the automaton. The simulation results indicate the model has the capability to generate effective four‐dimensional (4D) simulations from simple transition rules that describe the processes of particle advection and diffusion. The application of voxel‐based automata and the geo‐atom concepts allows for a detailed 4D analysis and tracking of the changes in the voxel space at every time‐step. The proposed modeling approach provides new means to examine the relationships between pattern and process in 4D.  相似文献   

4.
When planners intervene in urban systems they seek in part to generate a positive response from those parts of a city outside of their control, namely the private market and private individuals. This response is difficult to predict due to the fact that the city is a nonlinear system of organized complexity. Models of cities which seek to explain this response are necessarily complicated and dynamic. Where an analytical solution is not possible we turn to computer simulation and interactive visualization in order to understand their output. Allowing human participation in such simulations provides a sandbox in which to experiment with the dynamic behaviour of an urban model and play a part in its evolution. Two possible options for structuring this participation are: (1) toy retail systems, which allow unconstrained experimentation, and (2) games, which impose rules and involve role‐play and competition. To explore these ideas we construct a toy retail system and a two‐player retail game, both of which are derived from an existing agent‐based retail model. We explore the application of these systems to the metropolitan county of South Yorkshire in the UK.  相似文献   

5.
During extreme events, like hurricanes, it is essential to position relief services for non‐evacuees throughout the affected region in optimal locations. While previous research has explored a variety of spatial optimization models to accomplish such a task, most work assumes that the population with demand is relatively static. However, this assumption neglects to account for potential feedbacks in the relief distribution system. For example, a population's behavior can both affect and be affected by the placement of relief services, resulting in a dynamic spatial distribution of demand. This article presents a hybrid modeling approach that utilizes GIS data with agent‐based and spatial optimization models to position emergency relief teams in Bay County, Florida during a hurricane event. Non‐evacuating household agents choose to remain at home or seek shelter, while relief team agents are periodically repositioned to account for changes in the spatial distribution of household agents. A total of 220 simulations are run to explore a variety of scenarios. Results show different repositioning timing strategies and the magnitude of the feedback effect drastically changes the level of access households have to relief teams. Ultimately, this work demonstrates the importance of accounting for behavioral and spatial dynamics in disaster relief distribution systems.  相似文献   

6.
While cellular automata have become popular tools for modeling land‐use changes, there is a lack of studies reporting their application at very fine spatial resolutions (e.g. 5 m resolution). Traditional cell‐based CA do not generate reliable results at such resolutions because single cells might only represent components of land‐use entities (i.e. houses or parks in urban residential areas), while recently proposed entity‐based CA models usually ignore the internal heterogeneity of the entities. This article describes a patch‐based CA model designed to deal with this problem by integrating cell and object concepts. A patch is defined as a collection of adjacent cells that might have different attributes, but that represent a single land‐use entity. In this model, a transition probability map was calculated at each cell location for each land‐use transition using a weight of evidence method; then, land‐use changes were simulated by employing a patch‐based procedure based on the probability maps. This CA model, along with a traditional cell‐based model were tested in the eastern part of the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada, an area that is under considerable pressure for land development due to its proximity to the fast growing city of Calgary. The simulation results for the two models were compared to historical data using visual comparison, Ksimulation indices, and landscape metrics. The results reveal that the patch‐based CA model generates more compact and realistic land‐use patterns than the traditional cell‐based CA. The Ksimulation values indicate that the land‐use maps obtained with the patch‐based CA are in higher agreement with the historical data than those created by the cell‐based model, particularly regarding the location of change. The landscape metrics reveal that the patch‐based model is able to adequately capture the land‐use dynamics as observed in the historical data, while the cell‐based CA is not able to provide a similar interpretation. The patch‐based approach proposed in this study appears to be a simple and valuable solution to take into account the internal heterogeneity of land‐use classes at fine spatial resolutions and simulate their transitions over time.  相似文献   

7.
Agent‐based modeling provides a means for addressing the way human and natural systems interact to change landscapes over time. Until recently, evaluation of simulation models has focused on map comparison techniques that evaluate the degree to which predictions match real‐world observations. However, methods that change the focus of evaluation from patterns to processes have begun to surface; that is, rather than asking if a model simulates a correct pattern, models are evaluated on their ability to simulate a process of interest. We build on an existing agent‐based modeling validation method in order to present a temporal variant‐invariant analysis (TVIA). The enhanced method, which focuses on analyzing the uncertainty in simulation results, examines the degree to which outcomes from multiple model runs match some reference to how land use parcels make the transition from one land use class to another over time. We apply TVIA to results from an agent‐based model that simulates the relationships between landowner decisions and wildfire risk in the wildland‐urban interface of the southern Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA. The TVIA approach demonstrates a novel ability to examine uncertainty across time to provide an understanding of how the model emulates the system of interest.  相似文献   

8.
Defining a model for the representation and the analysis of spatio‐temporal dynamics remains an open domain in geographical information sciences. In this article we investigate a spatio‐temporal graph‐based model dedicated to managing and extracting sets of geographical entities related in space and time. The approach is based on spatial and temporal local relations between neighboring entities during consecutive times. The model allows us to extract sets of connected entities distant in time and space over long periods and large spaces. From GIS concepts and qualitative reasoning on space and time, we combine the graph model with a dedicated spatial database. It includes information on geometry and geomorphometric parameters, and on spatial and temporal relations. This allows us to extend classical measurements of spatial parameters, with comparisons of entities linked by complex relations in space and time. As a case study, we show how the model suggests an efficient representation of dunes dynamics on a nautical chart for safe navigation.  相似文献   

9.
Local land‐use and ‐cover changes (LUCCs) are the result of both the decisions and actions of individual land‐users, and the larger global and regional economic, political, cultural, and environmental contexts in which land‐use systems are embedded. However, the dearth of detailed empirical data and knowledge of the influences of global/regional forces on local land‐use decisions is a substantial challenge to formulating multi‐scale agent‐based models (ABMs) of land change. Pattern‐oriented modeling (POM) is a means to cope with such process and parameter uncertainty, and to design process‐based land change models despite a lack of detailed process knowledge or empirical data. POM was applied to a simplified agent‐based model of LUCC to design and test model relationships linking global market influence to agents’ land‐use decisions within an example test site. Results demonstrated that evaluating alternative model parameterizations based on their ability to simultaneously reproduce target patterns led to more realistic land‐use outcomes. This framework is promising as an agent‐based virtual laboratory to test hypotheses of how and under what conditions driving forces of land change differ from a generalized model representation depending on the particular land‐use system and location.  相似文献   

10.
Creating a GIS application for retail centers in Jeddah city   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
The aim of this paper is to identify the role of geographical information systems (GIS) in supporting retail planners in monitoring and analyzing retail development and growth. At first, a review about retail planning and its relevant issues is made. Second, GIS is defined together with its applications in retail planning. The third part discusses the created GIS application that is designed for two retail centers in Jeddah city, Saudi Arabia. This application is created to help planners in defining the distribution of retail demand, describing customers profile, analyzing trade areas and modeling retail flows. Two useful models have been produced by this study. One is called market penetration and the other is based on spatial interaction technique. The former is created to examine retail center catchment area, while the latter is used to model the interaction between demand areas and retail centers.  相似文献   

11.
Estimates of solar radiation distribution in urban areas are often limited by the complexity of urban environments. These limitations arise from spatial structures such as buildings and trees that affect spatial and temporal distributions of solar fluxes over urban surfaces. The traditional solar radiation models implemented in GIS can address this problem only partially. They can be adequately used only for 2‐D surfaces such as terrain and rooftops. However, vertical surfaces, such as facades, require a 3‐D approach. This study presents a new 3‐D solar radiation model for urban areas represented by 3‐D city models. The v.sun module implemented in GRASS GIS is based on the existing solar radiation methodology used in the topographic r.sun model with a new capability to process 3‐D vector data representing complex urban environments. The calculation procedure is based on the combined vector‐voxel approach segmenting the 3‐D vector objects to smaller polygon elements according to a voxel data structure of the volume region. The shadowing effects of surrounding objects are considered using a unique shadowing algorithm. The proposed model has been applied to the sample urban area with results showing strong spatial and temporal variations of solar radiation flows over complex urban surfaces.  相似文献   

12.
Dynamic geospatial complex systems are inherently four‐dimensional (4D) processes and there is a need for spatio‐temporal models that are capable of realistic representation for improved understanding and analysis. Such systems include changes of geological structures, dune formation, landslides, pollutant propagation, forest fires, and urban densification. However, these phenomena are frequently analyzed and represented with modeling approaches that consider only two spatial dimensions and time. Consequently, the main objectives of this study are to design and develop a modeling framework for 4D agent‐based modeling, and to implement the approach to the 4D case study for forest‐fire smoke propagation. The study area is central and southern British Columbia and the western parts of Alberta, Canada for forest fires that occurred in the summer season of 2017. The simulation results produced realistic spatial patterns of the smoke propagation dynamics.  相似文献   

13.
Residential location choice modeling is one of the substantial components of land use and transportation models. While numerous aggregated mathematical and statistical approaches have been developed to model the residence choice behavior of households, disaggregated approaches such as the agent‐based modeling have shown interesting capabilities. In this article, a novel agent‐based approach is developed to simulate the residential location choice of tenants in Tehran, the capital of Iran. Tenants are considered as agents who select their desired residential alternatives according to their characteristics and preferences for various criteria such as the rent, accessibility to different services and facilities, environmental pollution, and distance from their workplace and former residence. The choice set of agents is limited to their desired residential alternatives by applying a constrained NSGA‐II algorithm. Then, agents compete with each other to select their final residence among their alternatives. Results of the proposed approach are validated by comparing simulated and actual residences of a sample of tenants. Results show that the proposed approach is able to accurately simulate the residence of 59.3% of tenants at the traffic analysis zone level.  相似文献   

14.
This article reports on the initial development of a generic framework for integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with Massive Multi‐player Online Gaming (MMOG) technology to support the integrated modeling of human‐environment resource management and decision‐making. We review Web 2.0 concepts, online maps, and games as key technologies to realize a participatory construction of spatial simulation and decision making practices. Through a design‐based research approach we develop a prototype framework, “GeoGame”, that allows users to play board‐game‐style simulations on top of an online map. Through several iterations we demonstrate the implementation of a range of design artifacts including: real‐time, multi‐user editing of online maps, web services, game lobby, user‐modifiable rules and scenarios building, chat, discussion, and market transactions. Based on observational, analytical, experimental and functional evaluations of design artifacts as well as a literature review, we argue that a MMO GeoGame‐framework offers a viable approach to address the complex dynamics of human‐environmental systems that require a simultaneous reconciliation of both top‐down and bottom‐up decision making where stakeholders are an integral part of a modeling environment. Further research will offer additional insight into the development of social‐environmental models using stakeholder input and the use of such models to explore properties of complex dynamic systems.  相似文献   

15.
Time is a fundamental dimension in urban dynamics, but the effect of various definitions of time on urban growth models has rarely been evaluated. In urban growth models such as cellular automata (CA), time has typically been defined as a sequence of discrete time steps. However, most urban growth processes such as land‐use changes are asynchronous. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of various temporal dynamics scenarios on urban growth simulation, in terms of urban land‐use planning, and to introduce an asynchronous parcel‐based cellular automata (AParCA) model. In this study, eight different scenarios were generated to investigate the impact of temporal dynamics on CA‐based urban growth models, and their outputs were evaluated using various urban planning indicators. The obtained results show that different degrees of temporal dynamics lead to various patterns appearing in urban growth CA models, and the application of asynchronous (event‐driven) CA models achieves better simulation results than synchronous models.  相似文献   

16.
Sprawl measures have largely been neglected in land‐use forecasting models. The current approach for land‐use allocation using optimization mostly utilizes objective functions and constraints that are non‐spatial in nature. Application of spatial constraints could take care of the contiguity and compactness of land uses and can be utilized to address urban sprawl. Because a land‐use model is used as an input to transportation modeling, a better spatial allocation strategy for more compact land‐use projections will promote better transportation planning and sustainable development. This study formulates a scenario‐based approach to normative modeling of urban sprawl. In doing so, it seeks to improve the land‐use projections by employing a spatial optimization model with contiguity and compactness consideration. This study incorporates urban sprawl measures based on smart growth principles together with a mixed‐use factor, and adjacency consideration of nearby land uses. The objective function used in the study maximizes net suitability based on imposed constraints. These constraints are based on smart growth principles that enhance walkability in neighborhoods, promote better health for residents, and encourage mixed‐use development. The formulated model has been applied to Collin County, TX, a fast‐developing suburban county located to the north of the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex. The suitability of land cells indicates the probability of conversion, which is calculated using spatial discrete choice analysis with Moran eigenvector spatial filtering for vacant cells at a resolution of 150 × 150 m employing factors of the built environment, and socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. This study demonstrates how spatial proximity between land uses, which has been ignored to date, can be used to control sprawl, resulting in better mixing of different land uses based on constraints imposed in a spatial optimization problem.  相似文献   

17.
Qualitative representation of spatial locations and their similarity measurements are essential for the analysis of linguistic term‐based data. Existing methods have focused on the similarities of spatial relations and spatial scenes but have not considered the variations in geometrical representations and relations over scales. This study developed some new measures to assess the similarities of both single‐ and multi‐scale qualitative locations. Region‐ and cell‐based models were used to formalize qualitative locations of spatial objects with respect to multi‐scale frames of reference. The similarities were assessed by integrating the similarities of frames and qualitative relations. The frame similarity measures how two objects are compared considering the common elements that they occupy in the reference frames. Moreover, the similarity of qualitative relation measures how two relations relate two objects to the corresponding elements in the frames. The location similarities at a single level integrate the similarities of the frames and qualitative relations, whereas the location similarities at multiple scales incorporate the variations in qualitative locations over scales. These methods were used to assess location similarities concerning residential areas, roads, and lakes. The results indicated that the location‐based measurements can disclose the distributions of the similarities and that the cell‐based model is more accurate than the region‐based model.  相似文献   

18.
Although the disaggregation of consumers is crucial in understanding the fragmented markets that are dominant in many developed countries, it is not always straightforward to carry out such disaggregation within conventional retail modelling frameworks due to the limitations of data. In particular, consumer grouping based on sampled data is not assured to link with the other statistics that are vital in estimating sampling biases and missing variables in the sampling survey. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a useful combination of spatial interaction modelling and microsimulation approaches for the reliable estimation of retail interactions based on a sample survey of consumer behaviour being linked with other areal statistics. We demonstrate this approach by building an operational retail interaction model to estimate expenditure flows from households to retail stores in a local city in Japan, Kusatsu City.   相似文献   

19.
In this article, multilayer perceptron (MLP) network models with spatial constraints are proposed for regionalization of geostatistical point data based on multivariate homogeneity measures. The study focuses on non‐stationarity and autocorrelation in spatial data. Supervised MLP machine learning algorithms with spatial constraints have been implemented and tested on a point dataset. MLP spatially weighted classification models and an MLP contiguity‐constrained classification model are developed to conduct spatially constrained regionalization. The proposed methods have been tested with an attribute‐rich point dataset of geological surveys in Ukraine. The experiments show that consideration of the spatial effects, such as the use of spatial attributes and their respective whitening, improve the output of regionalization. It is also shown that spatial sorting used to preserve spatial contiguity leads to improved regionalization performance.  相似文献   

20.
Spatial data conflation involves the matching and merging of counterpart features in multiple datasets. It has applications in practical spatial analysis in a variety of fields. Conceptually, the feature‐matching problem can be viewed as an optimization problem of seeking a match plan that minimizes the total discrepancy between datasets. In this article, we propose a powerful yet efficient optimization model for feature matching based on the classic network flow problem in operations research. We begin with a review of the existing optimization‐based methods and point out limitations of current models. We then demonstrate how to utilize the structure of the network‐flow model to approach the feature‐matching problem, as well as the important factors for designing optimization‐based conflation models. The proposed model can be solved by general linear programming solvers or network flow solvers. Due to the network flow formulation we adopt, the proposed model can be solved in polynomial time. Computational experiments show that the proposed model significantly outperforms existing optimization‐based conflation models. We conclude with a summary of findings and point out directions of future research.  相似文献   

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