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1.
ERA40再分析资料揭示的北半球和东亚地区温带气旋生成频率变化 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
本文利用欧洲中心再分析数据ERA40的6小时间隔海平面气压场和一种改进的客观判定和追踪方法研究19582001年北半球和东亚地区温带气旋生成频率的气候态、年代际变化及可能原因。结果表明:(1)北半球温带气旋的源地主要位于北美东部(落基山下游地区)、西北大西洋地区、格陵兰至欧洲北部地区、蒙古地区和日本至西北太平洋地区。大洋的西岸和陡峭地形的背风坡有利于大气斜压性的增强和正涡度的发展,从而有利于地面气旋的形成。(2)年、冬季和春季30°～60°N气旋生成数目呈现减少的变化趋势,60°～90°N地区的气旋生成数呈增加的变化趋势。这在一定程度上支持了北半球风暴路径北移的观点。60°N以南和以北的温带气旋数目同北极涛动指数(AO)分别呈现负相关和正相关,这种相关性在年、春季和秋季最为显著。(3)1 958—2001年东亚地区的年气旋数目呈现明显的年代际变化。20世纪60年代至80年代中期40°～60°N、80°～140°E地区气旋数目呈增加趋势,而80年代中期之后温带气旋数目则锐减,主要原因是80年代以后该地区大气斜压性减弱,更高纬度地区的大气斜压性增强,从而导致了气旋源地的北移。在较低纬带的20°～40°N、110°～160°E地区气旋数目线性增加,这主要是由于位于40°～55°N的北太平洋风暴轴有向低纬度偏移的变化趋势造成的。 相似文献
2.
Extra-tropical cyclonic/anticyclonic activity in North-Eastern Pacific and air temperature extremes in Western North America 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
Synoptic extra-tropical cyclone and anticyclone trajectories have been constructed from mean daily sea level pressure (SLP) data using a new automated scheme. Frequency, intensity and trajectory characteristics of these transients have been summarized to form indices describing wintertime cyclonic and anticyclonic activity over the North-Eastern Pacific (east of 170°W) during 1950–2001. During this period, the strength of anticyclones gradually diminished and their frequency became more variable, while cyclones intensified in a discrete shift with deeper lows and further southerly trajectories occurring since the mid-1970s. These changes in synoptic transients translate into anomalously low seasonal mean SLP in the Aleutian Low, a low-level circulation anomaly consistent with the positive phase of the North Pacific Decadal Oscillation, with positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies along the west coast of North America and negative in the central North Pacific Ocean. A link between cyclonic/anticyclonic activity and tropical SST anomalies also exists, but this link only becomes significant after the mid-1970s, a period that coincides with more southerly cyclone trajectories. Southward excursions of mid-latitude cyclones during El Niño/positive NPO winters accomplish the northward advection of tropical air and discourage the southward penetration of polar air masses associated with transient anticyclones. Naturally, these changes in cyclonic/anticyclonic activity directly impact surface air temperatures, especially at night. We document these profound impacts on observed wintertime minimum temperatures over Western North America. 相似文献
3.
Ulrike Löptien Olga Zolina Sergey Gulev Mojib Latif Vladimir Soloviov 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(5):507-532
Cyclone activity and life cycle are analysed in the coupled GCMs ECHAM5/OM and ECHAM4/OPYC3. First, the results for the present
climate (1978–1999) are compared with ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, showing a drastic improvement in the representation
of cyclone activity in ECHAM5/OM compared to ECHAM4/OPYC3. The total number of cyclones, cyclone intensity, propagation velocity
and deepening rates are found to be much more realistic in ECHAM5/OM relative to ECHAM4/OPYC3. Then, changes in extra tropical
cyclone characteristics are compared between present day climate and future climate under the emission-scenario A1B using
ECHAM5/OM. This comparison is performed using the 20-year time slices 1978–1999, 2070–2090 and 2170–2190, which were considered
to be representative for the various climate conditions. The total number of cyclones does not undergo significant changes
in a warmer climate. However, regional changes in cyclone numbers and frequencies are evident. One example is the Mediterranean
region where the number of cyclones in summer increases almost by factor 2. Some noticeable changes are also found in cyclone
life cycle characteristics (deepening rate and propagation velocity). Cyclones in the future climate scenario tend to move
slower and their deepening rate becomes stronger, while cyclone intensity does not undergo significant change in a warmer
climate. Generally, our results do not support the hypothesis of enhanced storminess under future climate conditions. 相似文献
4.
Extratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
The winter climatology of Northern Hemisphere cyclone activity was derived from 6-hourly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the
period from 1958 to 1999, using software which provides improved accuracy in cyclone identification in comparison to numerical
tracking schemes. Cyclone characteristics over the Kuroshio and Gulfstream are very different to those over continental North
America and the Arctic. Analysis of Northern Hemisphere cyclones shows secular and decadal-scale changes in cyclone frequency,
intensity, lifetime and deepening rates. The western Pacific and Atlantic are characterized by an increase in cyclone intensity
and deepening during the 42-year period, although the eastern Pacific and continental North America demonstrate opposite tendencies
in most cyclone characteristics. There is an increase of the number of cyclones in the Arctic and in the western Pacific and
a downward tendency over the Gulf Stream and subpolar Pacific. Decadal scale variability in cyclone activity over the Atlantic
and Pacific exhibits south-north dipole-like patterns. Atlantic and Pacific cyclone activity associated with the NAO and PNA
is analyzed. Atlantic cyclone frequency demonstrates a high correlation with NAO and reflects the NAO shift in the mid 1970s,
associated with considerable changes in European storm tracks. The PNA is largely linked to the eastern Pacific cyclone frequencies,
and controls cyclone activity over the Gulf region and the North American coast during the last two decades. Assessment of
the accuracy of the results and comparison with those derived using numerical algorithms, shows that biases inherent in numerical
procedures are not negligible.
Received: 7 July 2000 / Accepted: 30 November 2000 相似文献
5.
6.
Climatology and interannual variations of wintertime extratropical cyclone frequency in CCSM3 twentieth century simulation
are compared with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis during 1950–1999. CCSM3 can simulate the storm tracks reasonably well, although
the model produces slightly less cyclones at the beginning of the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks and weaker poleward deflection
over the Pacific. As in the reanalysis, frequency of cyclones stronger than 980 hPa shows significant correlation with the
Pacific/North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern over the Pacific region and with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in
the Atlantic sector. Composite maps are constructed for opposite phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the NAO
and all anomalous patterns coincide with observed. One CCSM3 twenty-first century A1B scenario realization indicates there
is significant increase in the extratropical cyclone frequency on the US west coast and decrease in Alaska. Meanwhile, cyclone
frequency increases from the Great Lakes region to Quebec and decreases over the US east coast, suggesting a possible northward
shift of the Atlantic storm tracks under the warmer climate. The cyclone frequency anomalies are closely linked to changes
in seasonal mean states of the upper-troposphere zonal wind and baroclinicity in the lower troposphere. Due to lack of 6-hourly
outputs, we cannot apply the cyclone-tracking algorithm to the other eight CCSM3 realizations. Based on the linkage between
the mean state change and the cyclone frequency anomalies, it is likely a common feature among the other ensemble members
that cyclone activity is reduced on the East Coast and in Alaska as a result of global warming. 相似文献
7.
This is a study to compare three selected tropical cyclone datasets separately compiled by CMA
Shanghai Typhoon Institute (CMA_SHI), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), and the Japan
Meteorological Agency (JMA). The annual frequencies, observation times and destructive power index as
the characteristic quantities are investigated of the tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. The
comparative study has resulted in the following findings: 1) Statistical gaps between the datasets compared
are narrowing down as the intensity of tropical cyclones increases. 2) In the context of interdecadal
distribution, there is for the 1950s a relatively large gap between the datasets, as compared with a
narrowed gap for the period from the mid 1970s to the 1980s, and a recurring widened gap for the mid and
late 1990s. Additionally, an approach is proposed in the paper to correct the wind speed data in the TC
Yearbook. 相似文献
8.
Summary Changes in the frequency of tropical cyclones developing over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal have been studied utilizing
122 year (1877–1998) data of tropical cyclone frequency. There have been significant increasing trends in the cyclone frequency
over the Bay of Bengal during November and May which are main cyclone months. During transitional monsoon months; June and
September however, the frequency has decreased. The results have been presented for five months, i.e., May-November which
are relevant as far as tropical cyclone frequency over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal are concerned. The tropical cyclone
frequency in the Arabian Sea has not shown any significant trend, probably due to small normal frequency.
The frequency time series has been subjected to the spectral analysis to obtain the significant periods. The cyclone frequency
over the Bay of Bengal during May has shown a 29 year cycle. A significant 44 year cycle has been found during November. Over
the Arabian Sea significant cycles of 13 and 10 years have been observed during May-June and November, respectively. The tropical
cyclone frequency in the North Indian Ocean has a prominent El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) scale cycle (2–5 years) during
all above five months. The annual cyclone frequency exhibits 29 year and ENSO scale (2–4 years) oscillations. There is a reduction
in tropical cyclone activity over the Bay of Bengal in severe cyclone months May and November during warm phases of ENSO.
Examination of the frequencies of severe cyclones with maximum sustained winds ≥ 48 knots has revealed that these cyclones
have become more frequent in the North Indian Ocean during intense cyclone period of the year. The rate of intensification
of tropical disturbances to severe cyclone stage has registered an upward trend.
Received June 7, 1999/Revised March 20, 2000 相似文献
9.
M. P. Guishard E. A. Nelson J. L. Evans R. E. Hart D. G. O’Connell 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2007,97(1-4):239-253
Summary This investigation focuses on North Atlantic subtropical cyclones which tracked within 100 nautical miles (185 km) of Bermuda
from 1957 to 2005, identified through subtropical structural characteristics distinguished using Cyclone Phase Space, from
the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 45-year reanalyses. The study assesses the characteristics of these
hybrid storms that affect the Island, in order to aid the local forecaster. Reanalysis charts, surface analyses, local observations,
HURDAT tracks, and satellite pictures, where available, were examined. This data shows that subtropical cyclones affecting
Bermuda usually form in close proximity, to the south-southwest, over water of an average of 26 °C, under moderate vertical
wind shear, with an upper trough lying to the west-north-west. They then move in a north-northeastward direction, intensifying
quickly, but not often reaching a peak intensity of more than 26 m s−1. They generally have their beginnings along old baroclinic zones. September is the peak month of occurrence. A direct hit
by a severe subtropical cyclone, producing locally observed winds of over 26 m s−1, appears to be a rare event. However, these storms are certainly a threat to the Island, particularly due to their lack of
predictability, and conditions conducive to an incipient subtropical cyclone with potential to affect the Island should always
be closely monitored. 相似文献
10.
To assess the potential impact of climate changes on pasture production in the North Island, New Zealand, eight climate scenarios
of increased temperature and increased (or decreased) rainfall were investigated by integrating a polynomial regression model
for pasture production with a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results indicated that the climate change scenarios
assuming an increase in temperature by 1–2°C and a rainfall change by −20 to +20% would have a very significant impact on
pasture production with a predicted pasture production variation from −46.2 to +51.9% compared with the normal climate from
1961–1990. Increased temperature would generally have a positive effect on pasture production in the south and southeast of
the North Island, and increased rainfall would have a positive effect in the central, south and southeast of the North Island
and a negative effect in the north of the North Island. The interaction of decreased rainfall and increased temperature would
have a negative impact for the whole North Island except some central areas with high rainfall. Relevant management practices
for coping with potential climate change are discussed. 相似文献
11.
Summary The Australian east coast is subject to a range of synoptic/mesoscale weather systems ranging from low-pressure troughs, small
explosive low-pressure systems near the Australian east coast, to synoptic scale maritime low-pressure systems, and both tropical
and extra-tropical cyclones. These systems vary dynamically in intensity and structure across a spectrum that includes both
weak and intense cold-cored systems, to warm-cored tropical cyclones and “hybrid” systems. A preliminary 10 year climatology,
from 1992 to 2001, is presented that concentrates on those cyclones in open waters that threaten life and property as a result
of heavy coastal rain or the combined effects of wind, sea state and swell, including both long fetch and storm surges. There
are 28 systems in the 10-year climatology. In terms of their development, the most numerous were the 50% of storms that occurred
as systems within an easterly trough, followed by 21% that occurred as circulations on decaying Tasman Sea cold fronts.
In addition, a numerical weather prediction (NWP) modelling case study of the ‘hybrid’ sub-tropical cyclone system of March
2001 was carried out using archived real-time data. Operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecasts of this
system, which was not named in accordance with Australian classification policy, were all poor except for the US MRF model,
which provided marginally useful guidance. None of the operational global and regional models available to forecasters predicted
an intense cyclone, and only the US MRF model predicted landfall. A high-resolution forecast using all available data produced
significantly improved predictions over the operational models up to four days before landfall. 相似文献
12.
利用江苏近10 a（2005-2014年）暖季（5-9月）69站逐时降水资料,详细分析了短时强降水的空间分布、年际变化、季节内演变以及日变化特征。分析结果表明：短时强降水空间分布不均,整体上北部比南部活跃,最活跃区均位于沿淮西部,高强度短时强降水多发生在淮北东部,且空间分布集中。近10 a来江苏短时强降水整体呈减少趋势,主要表现为北部地区减少最为显著。短时强降水季节内分布不均匀,以7月最为活跃,高强度短时强降水在8月最为频繁;其逐候分布显示,梅期短时强降水骤增,于7月第2候达到峰值,盛夏期间高强度短时强降水增多,8月第3候达到峰值。江苏短时强降水的日变化整体呈双峰结构,主峰和次峰分别出现在傍晚17时（北京时间,下同）和清晨07时,高强度短时强降水多发于午后;短时强降水日变化存在季节内演变的阶段性特征和地域性差异,其中梅期和盛夏两个高发阶段均呈单峰结构,但梅期峰值出现在清晨,盛夏阶段峰值则出现在傍晚;由南向北,日变化特征由单峰向双峰、多峰演变,在淮河以南地区日峰值大多出现在午后至傍晚,而淮河以北地区多出现在夜间至清晨。 相似文献
13.
This study examines the impact of atmospheric and oceanic conditions during May–August of 2004 and 2010 on the frequency and genesis location of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. Using the WRF model, four numerical experiments were carried out based on different atmospheric conditions and SST forcing. The numerical experiments indicated that changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions greatly affect tropical cyclone activity, and the roles of atmospheric conditions are slightly greater than oceanic conditions. Specifically, the total number of tropical cyclones was found to be mostly affected by atmospheric conditions, while the distribution of tropical cyclone genesis locations was mainly related to oceanic conditions, especially the distribution of SST. In 2010, a warmer SST occurred west of 140°E, with a colder SST east of 140°E. On the one hand, the easterly flow was enhanced through the effect of the increase in the zonal SST gradient.The strengthened easterly flow led to an anomalous boundary layer divergence over the region to the east of 140°E, which suppressed the formation of tropical cyclones over this region. On the other hand, the colder SST over the region to the east of 140°E led to a colder low-level air temperature, which resulted in decreased CAPE and static instability energy. The decrease in thermodynamic energy restricted the generation of tropical cyclones over the same region. 相似文献
14.
Summary Based on the six-hourly re-analysis sea-level pressure data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF)
a cyclone statistics for the Arctic region north of 60° is elaborated for the period 1 November 1986 to 31 October 1991. For
each low pressure center on a weather map its location, central pressure and horizontal pressure gradients in E, W, N, and
S direction are determined. Furthermore, cyclone centers are followed with time to calculate trajectories, pressure tendencies,
and lifetimes.
A horizontal grid of 300 km × 300 km is used as unit area for the statistical computations. A unit area experiences about
20 cyclone passages per year (range 5–40). On the average, six cyclones occur simultaneously in the Arctic region. Lifetimes
vary from 6 h to 15 days.
The annual cyclone activity over the 5-year period is nearly the same. Cyclones are more frequent in summer (about 94 per
month) than in winter (77 per month). In general summer cyclones are weaker than winter cyclones. On the average, the minimum
central pressure during the lifetime of a cyclone is about 1000 hPa (typical range 980–1020) in summer and about 988 hPa (typical
range 940–1030) in winter.
In winter, a zone of high cyclone frequency extends from the region near Iceland over the Greenland Sea, Barents Sea, and
Kara Sea to the Laptev Sea while the interior of the Arctic shows little cyclone frequency. In summer, the region near Iceland
and the interior of the Arctic are separate centers of high cyclone frequency. Both in winter and summer very high cyclone
frequencies are observed over the northern Baffin Bay. The regional distribution of mean central pressures and maximum pressure
gradients roughly follows the distribution of cyclone frequencies except for the Baffin Bay cyclones which are generally weak.
Cyclolysis dominates cyclogenesis over largest parts of the Arctic. Regions of high cyclone frequency are also regions of
frequent cyclogenesis and frequent cyclolysis. One third of all cyclones is generated in a region with an already existing
cyclonic circulation.
Cyclones in the Fram Strait are studied in more detail because of their special impact on the ice export from the Arctic Ocean
to the Atlantic Ocean. On the average, there are 5 cyclones per month. the cyclone frequency in the Fram Strait is higher
during the winter period than during the summer period. This is in contrast to the overall Arctic frequency which is higher
in summer than in winter. Cyclogenesis predominates in winter and cyclolysis in summer in the Fram Strait. The most frequent
direction of motion is from SW to NE.
Received November, 1999 Revised June 22, 2000 相似文献
15.
东亚温带低气压路径 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
本文利用1951—1960年的亚洲地面天气图,分月統計东亚地区(70°E以东,55°N以南)每2.5°×2.5°經緯格內低压中心通过的頻数,繪制了頻数分布图,确定出低压移动的主要路径,此外,还繪制了冬半年和夏半年低压发生(初現)頻数分布图、頻数百分率的随緯度分布和沿120°E与110°E經线上低压中心通过頻数的各月綜合图。結果得出:1.东亚大陆中緯度西风带的低压主要出現在蒙古人民共和国中部到我国的东北地区,20°N以南不出現溫带低气压;2.45°N以南的我国大陆上低压很弱,大多数不閉合,只有在我国东部或入海后才发展;3.日本东南面海上是低压路径的集中带;4.春季低压出現最为頻繁,秋季次之,夏季我国江淮流域低压有所增多。 最后,对低压路径进行了分类,把东亚的溫带低气压划为五大类和十一亚类,并对各类低压分别作了簡要的叙述。 相似文献
16.
Trajectories of surface cyclones and anticyclones were constructed using an automated scheme by tracking local minima and maxima of mean daily sea level pressure data in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques coupled global climate Model (CNRM-CM3) SRES A2 integration. Mid-latitude lows and highs traveling in the North Pacific were tracked and daily frequencies were gridded. Transient activity in the CNRM-CM3 historical simulation (1950–1999) was validated against reanalysis. The GCM correctly reproduces winter trajectories as well as mean geographical distributions of cyclones and anticyclones over the North Pacific in spite of a general under-estimation of cyclones’ frequency. On inter-annual time scales, frequencies of cyclones and anticyclones vary in accordance with the Aleutian Low (AL) strength. When the AL is stronger (weaker), cyclones are more (less) numerous over the central and eastern North Pacific, while anticyclones are significantly less (more) numerous over this region. The action of transient cyclones and anticyclones over the central and eastern North Pacific determines seasonal climate over the West Coast of North America, and specifically, winter weather over California. Relationships between winter cyclone/anticyclone behavior and daily precipitation/cold temperature extremes over Western North America (the West) were examined and yielded two simple indices summarizing North Pacific transient activity relevant to regional climates. These indices are strongly related to the observed inter-annual variability of daily precipitation and cold temperature extremes over the West as well as to large scale seasonally averaged near surface climate conditions (e.g., air temperature at 2 m and wind at 10 m). In fact, they represent the synoptic links that accomplish the teleconnections. Comparison of patterns derived from NCEP-NCAR and CNRM-CM3 revealed that the model reproduces links between cyclone/anticyclone frequencies over the Northeastern Pacific and extra-tropical climate conditions but is deficient in relation to tropical climate variability. The connections between these synoptic indices and Western weather are well reproduced by the model. Under advanced global warming conditions, that is, the last half of the century, the model predicts a significant reduction of cyclonic transients throughout the mid-latitude North Pacific with the exception of the far northern and northeastern domains. Anticyclonic transients respond somewhat more regionally but consistently to strong greenhouse forcing, with notably fewer anticyclones over the Okhotsk/Kamchatka sector and generally more anticyclones in the Northeastern Pacific. These modifications of synoptic weather result in regional feedbacks, that is, regional synoptic alterations of the anthropogenic warming signal around the North Pacific. In the eastern Pacific, for example, synoptic feedbacks, having to do especially with the northward shift of the eastern Pacific storm-track (responding, in turn, to a weaker equator-to-pole temperature gradient), are favorable to more anticyclonic conditions off the American mid-latitude west coast and more cyclonic conditions at higher latitudes. These circulation feedbacks further reduce the equator-to-pole temperature gradient by favoring high-latitude mean winter warming especially over a broad wedge of the Arctic north of the Bering Sea and moderating the warming along the mid-latitude west coast of north America while also reducing precipitation frequencies from California to Northern Mexico. 相似文献
17.
Climatic regime shift and decadal anomalous events in China 总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15
Climatic time series from historical documents and instrumental records from China showed temporal and regional patterns in
the last two to three centuries, including two multidecadal oscillations at quasi-20-year and quasi-70-year timescales revealed
by signal analysis from wavelet transform. Climatic anomalous events on the decadal timescale were identified based on the
two oscillations when their positive (or negative) phases coincide with each other to amplify amplitude. The coldest event
occurred in the decade of 1965–1975 in eastern China, while the periods of 1920–1930, 1940–1950, and 1988–2000 appeared to
be warmer in most parts of China. For the precipitation series in northern China, the dry anomalous event was found in the
late 1920s, while the wet anomalous event occurred in the 1950s. A severe drought in 1927–1929 in northern China coincided
with the anomalous warm and dry decade, caused large-scale famine in nine provinces over northern China. Climatic anomalous
events with a warm-dry or cold-wet association in the physical climate system would potentially cause severe negative impacts
on natural ecosystem in the key vulnerable region over northern China. The spatial pattern of summer rainfall anomalies in
the eastern China monsoon region showed an opposite variations in phase between the Yellow River Valley (North China) and
the mid-low Yangtze River Valley as well as accompanied the shift of the northernmost monsoon boundary. Climatic regime shifts
for different time points in the last 200 years were identified. In North China, transitions from dry to wet periods occurred
around 1800, 1875, and 1940 while the transitions from wet to dry periods appeared around 1840, 1910, and the late 1970s.
The reversal transition in these time points can also be found in the lower Yangtze River. Climatic regime shifts in China
were linked to the interaction of mid- and low latitude atmospheric circulations (the westerly flow and the monsoon flow)
when they cross the Tibetan Plateau in East Asia. 相似文献
18.
基于1948~2013年NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,采用850 hPa相对涡度场气旋追踪方法,统计了春季蒙古气旋的活动特征,包括其源地、盛期位置、消亡地以及路径的分布。在此基础上,根据蒙古气旋的不同移动路径,界定了蒙古气旋的两种路径,即向东路径和东南路径,并统计了这两类气旋的频数与强度的年际和年代际变化。同时还揭示了这两类蒙古气旋的低频背景环流特征。本文主要结论如下:(1)蒙古气旋主要生成于贝加尔湖南侧和东侧的山脉背风坡,并在蒙古东部地区以及我国东北地区达到盛期,多数气旋消亡于东北亚及其临海区域;(2)两类气旋的生成个数均有显著的年代际变化。向东路径气旋在1950年代的个数偏少,1970年代至1990年代的个数整体偏多,之后有所减少,但进入21世纪后气旋有个数呈现增多的趋势。东南路径气旋在1970年代以前一直处于偏少阶段,1970年代至1980年代中期处于偏多阶段,2005年以后东南路径气旋个数有减少的趋势;(3)向东路径蒙古气旋的背景低频环流由斯堪的纳维亚半岛正异常中心、贝加尔湖及西侧的负异常中心以及环日本海地区的正异常中心所组成的正位相斯堪的纳维亚环流型为主要特征。东南路径蒙古气旋则以俄罗斯西部的负异常中心、拉普捷夫海附近延伸到我国西北地区的正高度异常区以及东北低涡环流为主要特征。 相似文献
19.
Stanley A. Changnon 《Climatic change》2011,106(2):129-140
The temporal distributions of the nation’s four major storm types during 1950–2005 were assessed, including those for thunderstorms,
hurricanes, tornadoes, and winter storms. Storms are labeled as catastrophes, defined as events causing $1 million or more
in property losses, based on time-adjusted data provided by the insurance industry. Most catastrophic storms occurred in the
eastern half of the nation. Analysis of the regional and national storm frequencies revealed there was little time-related
relationship between storm types, reflecting how storm types were reported. That is, when tornadoes occurred with thunderstorms,
the type producing the greatest losses was the one identified by the insurance industry, not both. Temporal agreement was
found in the timing of relatively high incidences of thunderstorms, hurricanes, and winter storms during 2002–2005. This resulted
in upward time trends in the national losses of hurricane and thunderstorm catastrophes, The temporal increase in hurricanes
is in agreement with upward trends in population density, wealth, and insurance coverage in Gulf and East coastal areas. The
upward trends in thunderstorm catastrophes and losses result from increases in heavy rain days, floods, high winds, and hail
days, revealing that atmospheric conditions conducive to strong convective activity have been increasing since the 1960s.
Tornado catastrophes and their losses peaked in 1966–1973 and had no upward time trend. Temporal variability in tornado catastrophes
was large, whereas the variability in hurricane and thunderstorm catastrophes was only moderate, and that for winter storms
was low. 相似文献
20.
Cyclone Phase Space Characteristics of the Extratropical Transitioning Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2 
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下载免费PDF全文 The cyclone phase space (CPS) method has been utilized to evaluate the extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones
(TCs) in many recent publications. However, these studies mainly focused over the North Atlantic basin. In this paper, the
CPS characteristics of all the cyclones over the western North Pacific are investigated and discussed, with three parameters
calculated from the best-track data of the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center in Tokyo and the Japanese 25-yr reanalysis
data. It is concluded that most TCs over the western North Pacific possess the non-frontal and warm-core structure, while
a larger number of cyclones that have undergone ET hold the frontal and cold-core structure. The spatial pattern of the CPS
parameters indicates that the areas of tropical and extratropical cyclone activities could be demarcated by 30°N. The composite
and individual series of three parameters of the CPS indicate that the transformation of −V
TU from positive to negative leads to the start of ET, and could be considered as a potential predictor in operationally forecasting
an ET event. 相似文献