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1.
A one-dimensional, time-dependent numerical cloud model is used to analyze the factors in the dynamic and thermodynamic equations which lead to a steady-state or nonsteady-state solution for the cloud vertical motion, buoyancy, precipitation, and cloud water fields. ‘Bulk water’ microphysical techniques are used for the cloud, rain, and hail variables. An atmospheric sounding from a severe storm situation is used as initial and environmental conditions, yielding model updrafts of 40 m sec?1 maximum and more than 10 m sec?1 over the entire cloud region. ‘Early conversion’ of the cloud water to rain leads to loading of lower portions of the updraft by rain, the formation of appreciable amounts of hail by freezing of the supercooled rain, and subsequent loading of the middle and upper portions of the updraft so that the updraft erodes throughout the cloud depth and the cloud dissipates, yielding a vigorous rain shower. A delay in the conversion of the cloud water to rain results in a steady-state solution, no rain or hail falling through the updraft. A two-dimensional cloud simulation of this same case shows rain and hail in the upper cloud regions recycled in the two-dimensional flow into the updraft near cloud base and a breakdown of the updraft with resultant rainout (negligible hail reaching the ground). The breakdown of the updraft has profound effects on the temperature field within the cloud, causing the lapse rate to deviate from the steady-state condition and approach the initial environmental conditions. The results emphasize the fact that the local change in temperature (and other dependent variables as well) is not independent of the vertical velocity, in general. This has implications for the interpretation of measurements made within clouds.  相似文献   

2.
The available buoyant energy (ABE, energy from the environment which becomes available to a parcel for buoyant accelerations) arising from glaciation is computed by integrating upward the differences in temperature between a parcel that undergoes instantaneous and isenthalpic freezing followed by an ice-saturation ascent, and one that experiences only a water-saturation ascent from the same initial cloud base conditions. This quantity is computed for three initial cloud base conditions representative of tropical, High Plains summertime, and Great Lakes wintertime cumuli. Substantial increases in parcel updraft speed are realized for all clouds if the ABE arising from glaciation is completely converted to parcel kinetic energy. Variations of the three components of parcel heating involved in the glaciation process (i.e., (1) release of latent heat of fusion from freezing of liquid water, (2) cooling or warming from sublimation or deposition as vapor pressure adjusts from water saturation to ice saturation at the post glaciation temperature, and (3) the additional warming or cooling relative to the intial water-saturation adiabat as the parcel follows an icesaturation ascent to a specified upper reference level) are also determined as functions of glaciation temperature. It is found that sublimation substantially counteracts the parcel warming arising from the freezing of liquid water in the case of warm moist cumuli. In addition, it is found that in some instances ice-saturation ascent following glaciation can produce cooling relative to the initial departure from the water saturation adiabat. This was indicated for Great Lakes wintertime cumuli and also for warm moist cumuli with glaciations at very cold temperatures. The effect upon the buoyancy force, of the change in the mass of condensate during glaciation, is small and can usually be neglected.  相似文献   

3.
Based on the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model that features charging and discharging parameterization, relationships between tornado, hail and lightning were investigated for a tornado-producing (EF4 intensity) supercell thunderstorm over Yancheng City in Jiangsu Province, China, on 23 June 2016. Based on a sounding at 0800, there was a low lifting condensation level, substantial convective available potential energy (CAPE), and strong vertical wind shear near Yancheng City, which promote supercell development. At 1400, observations revealed that hail production and a dramatic increase of positive cloud-to-ground flash rates occurred simultaneously, maximizing five minutes later. The tornado occurred 30 min after the hail production. The time of minimum positive cloud-to-ground flash rates was 15 min later. The simulation indicated that the tornadic supercell moved eastward and that positive cloud-to-ground flash rates increased dramatically at 1400, the same as observed, but their maximum was 5 min later than observed. The simulated updraft volume peaked at 1425 and the simulated downdraft volume maximized 5 min later, when the mesocyclone formed. Simulated reflectivities showed no hook echo and horizontal winds for different height at mid-low levels had a different cyclonic shear at 1430, favorable to mesocyclone formation. Based on the simulated results, the region of positively charged graupel ascended resulting from the region of high liquid water content was lifted by the strong updraft, forming a mid-level strong positive charge region. A lower negative charge region formed by the inductive charging mechanism of collisions between graupel and droplets at the bottom of the cloud, conducive to positive cloud-to-ground flashes.  相似文献   

4.
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5.
Understanding the history of Antarctic glaciation is important for interpreting paleoclimatic changes and estimating the changes in climate, sea level, and ice volume in the future. Ice core studies of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) and marine sediment cores from the entire Ross Sea have employed numerous proxies to reconstruct the glacial history of the Antarctic region. However, the ice and marine core records can be biased because of their specific locations, such as the uppermost accumulation zone or the terminus of the ablation zone, thereby introducing significant uncertainties in ice modeling. In this study, we analyzed 34 new 10Be and 26Al samples from four benches that were glaciated in the past by David glacier and incorporate the present ice-free flat surfaces. We suggest that the David glacier experienced monotonic and stepwise vertical lowering along the flanks of Mt. Priestley since the early Pleistocene. The uppermost bedrock benches on Mt. Priestley were exposed at 1.77 ± 0.32 Ma, with no evidence of subsequent overriding by readvancing ice. At Mt. Priestley, the David glacier has been characterized by a cold-based regime since 1.77 Ma, with a denudation rate of only ∼16 cm/Ma, corresponding to the regional transition from warm to cold-based glaciation at 3.5 Ma. Simple exposure ages from two lower benches date to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 7 (234.1 ± 13.1 ka; 545 m asl) and MIS 4 (64.8 ± 13.7 ka; 222 m asl), suggesting that, since MIS 8, the overall lowering of glaciers has remained monotonic. The upper bench marks the lower limit of the MIS 8 glacial period and the upper limit of Penultimate Glacial Maximum (MIS 6), while the lower landform defines the upper limit of the last glacial period (MIS 4–2). The magnitude of Quaternary ice thinning at the David glacier was the highest (∼990 m) in the present terminal area (i.e., the most sensitive ablation zone), in contrast to the other outlet glaciers draining into the Terra Nova Bay, which experienced less ice lowering. The combination of the terrestrial (in situ 10Be and 26Al) and previous marine (authigenic 10Be) cosmogenic data used in our study document the history of lowering of the David glacier driven by climatic changes during the Pleistocene. Both deglaciation and glaciation were limited during the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT) and prior to the mid-Bruhnes event (MBE), due to the prevailing cold and arid climate, whereas deglaciation was dominant during other warm periods.  相似文献   

6.
The purpose of this study was to understand the reasons why frequent positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) flashes occur in severe thunderstorms. A three-dimensional dynamics-electrification coupled model was used to simulate a severe thunderstorm to permit analysis of the conditions that might easily cause +CG flashes. The results showed that strong updrafts play an important role in the occurrence of intracloud flashes. However, frequent +CG flashes require not only strong updrafts but also strong downdrafts in the lower cloud region, conditions that correspond to the later phase of the mature stage and the period of the heaviest solid precipitation of a thunderstorm. During this stage, strong updrafts elevated each charge area in the updraft region to a higher level, which resulted in an inverted tripole charge structure. A wide mid-level region of strong positive charge caused largely by positively charged graupel, presented in the middle of the updraft region because of a non-inductive ice-ice collisional charging mechanism. The charge structure in the downdraft region was consistently more complex and revealed several vertically stacked charge regions, alternating in polarity. Much of the graupel/hail outside the updrafts was lowered to cloud-base by strong downdrafts. In this area, the graupel/hail was charged negatively because of the transportation of negatively charged graupel/hail from higher regions of negative charge in the updrafts, and via the inductive charging mechanism of collisions between graupel/hail and cloud droplets at the bottom of the cloud. Consequently, a large region of negative charge formed near the ground. This meant that +CG flashes were initiated more easily in the lower inverted dipole, i.e., the middle region of positive charge and lower region of negative charge. Frequent +CG flashes began almost synchronously with dramatic increases in the storm updrafts, hail volume, and total flash rate. Therefore, the occurrence of +CG flashes appears a good indicator of storm intensification and it could have some use as a predictor of severe weather in the form of hail.  相似文献   

7.
Summary The results of a recent investigation on the free growth rate and the growth forms of ice in supercooled water and aqueous solutions are presented. The results are used to discuss the structure of frozen drops, the structure of hailstones, the mechanisms which are responsible for the glaciation of atmospheric clouds and the mechanisms which cause cloud electrification. It was found that the presence of dissolved salts and dust particles in cloud drops favor the formation of spongy and polycristalline ice, that it is unlikely for frozen cloud drops to develop into hexagonal shaped ice single-crystals, and that it is also unlikely that in atmospheric clouds freezing drops shatter and splinter. The latter result casts serious doubts on the splintering mechanism to contribute to thunderstorm electrification and to promote glaciation of clouds.This work was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. GP 2922.  相似文献   

8.
A study of severe convective storms, including tornadoes, indicates that hail is almost always associated with them. Large hail, often having physical characteristics which denote wet growth, is frequently observed to fall in advance of large, damaging tornadoes. Results obtained from a cumulus model, which includes hail growth by stochastic coalescence, support these observations. Hail, rather than rain, is responsible for the large radar reflectivities, and primarily responsible for the mass loading of the updraft, because its size is not dynamically limited as is that of a large raindrop. The applicability of the model, a one-dimensional, time dependent model, is discussed and then the characteristics of hail growth are examined in a variety of conditions, which are determined in nature by aerosols through their capability to initiate condensation, coalescence and drop freezing. Conditions favorable for both dry and wet growth are simulated, corresponding to a cumulonimbus which develops in a shearing environment.  相似文献   

9.
The inverted charge structure formation of a hailstorm was investigated using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF-ARW) model coupled with electrification and discharge schemes. Different processes may be responsible for inverted charge structure in different storms and regions. A dynamical-derived mechanism of inverted charge structure formation was confirmed by the numerical model: the inverted structure was formed by strong updraft and downdraft under normal-polarity charging conditions such that the graupel charged negatively in the main charging region in the middle-upper level of the cloud. The simulation results showed the storm presented a normal charge structure before and after hail-fall; while during the hail-fall stage, it showed an inverted charge structure—negative charge region in the upper level of the cloud and a positive charge region in the middle level of the cloud—appearing at the front edge near the strong updraft in the hailstorm. The charging processes between the two particles mainly occurred at the top of the cloud, where the graupel charged negatively and ice crystals positively due to the strong updraft. When the updraft air reached the top of the storm, it would spread to the rear and front. The light ice crystals were transported backward and forward more easily. Meanwhile, the positively charged ice crystals were transported downward by the frontal subsidence, and then a positive charge region formed between the ?10 and ?25°C levels. Subsequently, a negative charge region materialized in the upper level of the cloud, and the inverted charge structure formed.  相似文献   

10.
A 3-D convective cloud model with compressible non-hydrostatic dynamics and the spectral bin microphysics of a 2-D slab-symmetric model has been used to simulate an observed supercell storm occurring on 29 June, 2000 near Bird City, Kansas, USA. The main objective of this paper is to study the evolution of particles in this convective storm with bin spectral microphysics scheme. Graupels form and grow through two mechanisms, deposition and riming, with the riming process dominant on top of the inflow and in the upper portion of main updraft. Over the outflow and during the developing and mature stages of the storm, graupel particles mainly grow through deposition with dominant unimodal spectra. Most fall out after growing up. Reducing initial relative humidity disturbance (increasing initial potential temperature disturbance) has negative impact on the formation and growth of graupels over the inflow (outflow). This study shows that large graupel and hail could be suppressed by altering the deposition and coalescence process over the inflow and main updraft. At different locations of the convective cells and with different initial humidity and potential temperature disturbance, the graupel formation and growth mechanisms are different, so as to the feasible hail suppression locations and methods. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40537034, 40805057), and Foundation of Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education in Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (Grant No. KLME060202)  相似文献   

11.
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12.
Understanding natural soil redistribution processes is essential for measuring the anthropogenic impact on landscapes. Although meteoric beryllium-10 (10Be) has been used to determine erosion processes within the Pleistocene and Holocene, fewer studies have used the isotope to investigate the transport and accumulation of the resulting sediment. Here we use meteoric 10Be in hilltop and valley site soil profiles to determine sediment erosion and deposition processes in the Christina River Basin (Pennsylvania, USA). The data indicate natural erosion rates of 14 to 21 mm 10−3 yr and soil ages of 26 000 to 57 000 years in hilltop sites. Furthermore, valley sites indicate an alteration in sediment supply due to climate change (from the Pleistocene to the Holocene) within the last 60 000 years and sediment deposition of at least 0.5–2 m during the Wisconsinan glaciation. The change in soil erosion rate was most likely induced by changes in geomorphic processes; probably solifluction and slope wash during the cold period, when ice advanced into the mid latitudes of North America. This study shows the value of using meteoric 10Be to determine sediment accumulation within the Quaternary and quantifies major soil redistribution occurred under natural conditions in this region. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
The reconstruction of former mountain glaciers has long been used to examine the implications of rapid climate shifts, for example at the last glacial–interglacial transition, and for evaluating asynchronous behaviour of mountain glaciers compared with mid‐latitude ice sheets during the Late Quaternary. Glacier reconstruction has also been used as a source of palaeoclimatic information, based on the recognition of empirical relationships between glaciers and climate. This paper reviews the application and implications of a recently revised method of glacier reconstruction (Carr and Coleman, 2007 ), based around glaciological principles of mass‐balance. This study examines how this approach can be used to test geomorphological interpretations of former mountain glaciation and also to infer precipitation fields at sites of former glaciation. Sites of Younger Dryas niche and icefield glaciation in the British Isles demonstrate how this method can verify interpretations of marginal glaciation and begin to understand the different behaviour of outlet glaciers within the same environmental regime. Examination of a site of former niche glaciation in Southern Africa demonstrates how glacier reconstruction may be used to infer annual and seasonal precipitation values and strongly supports the idea that winter precipitation in Lesotho and SE South Africa was substantially greater than present‐day values during the last glacial cycle. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Some areas within ice sheet boundaries retain pre-existing landforms and thus either remained as ice free islands (nunataks) during glaciation, or were preserved under ice. Differentiating between these alternatives has significant implications for paleoenvironment, ice sheet surface elevation, and ice volume reconstructions. In the northern Swedish mountains, in situ cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al concentrations from glacial erratics on relict surfaces as well as glacially eroded bedrock adjacent to these surfaces, provide consistent last deglaciation exposure ages (∼8-13 kyr), confirming ice sheet overriding as opposed to ice free conditions. However, these ages contrast with exposure ages of 34-61 kyr on bedrock surfaces in these same relict areas, demonstrating that relict areas were preserved with little erosion through multiple glacial cycles. Based on the difference in radioactive decay between 26Al and 10Be, the measured nuclide concentration in one of these bedrock surfaces suggests that it remained largely unmodified for a minimum period of 845−418+461 kyr. These results indicate that relict areas need to be accounted for as frozen bed patches in basal boundary conditions for ice sheet models, and in landscape development models. Subglacial preservation also implies that source areas for glacial sediments in ocean cores are considerably smaller than the total area covered by ice sheets. These relict areas also have significance as potential long-term subglacial biologic refugia.  相似文献   

15.
Controversy exists over the extent of glaciation in Eastern Asia at the Last Glacial Maximum: complete ice sheet cover vs. restricted mountain icefields (an area discrepancy equivalent to 3.7 Greenland Ice Sheets). Current arguments favour the latter. However, significant last glacial ice-rafted debris (IRD) exists in NW Pacific ocean cores, which must have been sourced from a major ice sheet somewhere bordering the North Pacific. The origin of this IRD is addressed through a combination of marine core analysis, iceberg trajectory modelling and remote sensing of glacial geomorphology. We find compelling evidence for two stages of glaciation centred on the Kamchatka area of maritime southeast Russia during the last glacial, with ice extent intermediate in size between previous maximum and minimum reconstructions. Furthermore, a significant increase in iceberg flux precedes, and accompanies, a substantial marine core ash deposit at around 40 ka BP. We speculate that rapid decay of the first stage of the ice sheet may have triggered substantial volcanic activity.  相似文献   

16.
Glacial geomorphology and ice ages in Tibet and the surrounding mountains   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Matthias  Kuhle 《Island Arc》2005,14(4):346-367
Abstract   Since 1973 new data have been obtained on the maximum extent of glaciation in High Asia. Evidence for an ice sheet covering Tibet during the last glacial period means a radical rethinking about glaciation in the northern hemisphere. The ice sheet's subtropical latitude, vast size (2.4 million km2) and high elevation (6000 m a.s.l.) are supposed to have resulted in a substantial, albedo-induced cooling of the Earth's atmosphere and the disruption of summer monsoon circulation. Moraines were found to reach down to 460 m a.s.l. on the southern flank of the Himalayas and to 2300 m a.s.l. on the northern slope of the Tibetan Plateau, in the Qilian Shan region. On the northern slopes of the Karakoram, Aghil and Kuen-Lun Mountains, moraines occur as far down as 1900 m a.s.l. In southern Tibet, radiographic analyses of erratics suggest a former ice thickness of at least 1200 m. Glacial polish and roches moutonnées in the Himalayas and Karakoram suggest former glaciers as thick as 1200–2700 m. On the basis of this evidence, a 1100–1600-m lower equilibrium line has been reconstructed, resulting in an ice sheet of 2.4 million km2, covering almost all of Tibet. Radiometric ages, obtained by different methods, classify this glaciation as isotope stage 3–2 in age (Würmian, the last glacial period, ca  60 000–18 000 years ago).  相似文献   

17.
The Kverkfjöll area, NE Iceland is characterised by subglacial basalt pillow lavas erupted under thick ice during the last major glaciation in Iceland. The water contents of slightly vesiculated glassy rims of pillows in six localities range from 0.85±0.03 to 1.04±0.03 wt %. The water content measurements allow the ice thickness to be estimated at between 1.2 and 1.6 km, with the range reflecting the uncertainty in the CO2 and water contents of the melt. The upper estimates agree with other observations and models that the ice thickness in the centre of Iceland was 1.5–2.0 km at the time of the last glacial maximum. Many of the pillows in the Kverkfjöll area are characterised by vesiculated cores (40–60% vesicles) surrounded by a thick outer zone of moderately vesicular basalt (15–20% vesicles). The core contains ～1 mm diameter spherical vesicles distributed uniformly. This observation suggests a sudden decompression and vesiculation of the still molten core followed by rapid cooling. The cores are attributed to a jökulhlaup in which melt water created by the eruption is suddenly released reducing the environmental pressure. Mass balance and solubility relationships for water allow a pressure decrease to be calculated from the observed change of vesicularity of between 4.4 and 4.7 MPa depressurization equivalent to a drop in the water level in the range 440–470 m. Consideration of the thickness of solid crust around the molten cores at the time of the jökulhlaup indicates an interval of 1–3 days between pillow emplacement and the jökulhlaup. Upper limits for ice melting rates of order 10?3 m/s are indicated. This interpretation suggests that jökulhlaups can reactivate eruptions.  相似文献   

18.
Summary Working on the hypothesis that atmospheric ice-forming nuclei are largely of terrestrial origin, the nucleating ability of various types of soil particles and mineral dusts has been investigated. Of the thirty substances tested, twenty-one, mainly silicate minerals of the clay and mica groups, were found to produce ice crystals in supercooled clouds and also on supercooled soap films at temperatures of – 18° C, or above, and of these, ten were active above – 12° C. The most abundant of these is kaolinite with a threshold temperature of – 9° C. Ten natural substances, again mainly silicates, were found to become more efficient ice nuclei having once been involved in ice-crystal formation, i.e. they could be pre-activated or «trained». Thus, ice crystals grown on kaolinite nuclei, which are initially active at –9° C, when evaporated and warmed to near 0° C in a dry atmosphere, leave behind nuclei which are thereafter effective at – 4° C. Particles of montmorillonite, another important constituent of some clays, and which are initially inactive even at –25° C, may be pre-activated to serve as ice nuclei at temperatures as high as –10° C. It is suggested that although such particles can initially form ice crystals only at cirrus levels, when the ice crystals evaporate they will leave behind some «trained» nuclei which may later seed lower clouds at temperatures only a few degrees below 0° C. On this hypothesis, the fact that efficient nuclei are occasionally more abundant at higher levels would not necessarily imply that they originate from outer space. Indeed, in view of our tests on products of stony meteorites, produced both by grinding and vaporization, which show them to be ineffective at temperatures above – 17° C, it seems likely that atmospheric ice nuclei are produced mainly at the earth's surface, the clay minerals, particularly kaolinite, being a major source.Although a good deal of work has been carried out in different laboratories on the ice-nucleating ability of a wide variety of inorganic compounds, there has been little agreement in the results. Careful tests carried out in our laboratory have revealed a number of reasons for this. Spurious results may be obtained because of the presence, in the air or the chemicals, of small traces of silver or free iodine, leading to the formation of silver iodide: if all such trace impurities are removed, many of the substances that have been claimed to provide efficient ice nuclei are found to be quite ineffective. It is dangerous to infer that all twinkling particles in a water cloud are ice crystals since particles of some seeding agents glitter even at positive temperatures. The threshold temperature of a nucleant will depend upon the criterion adopted for the onset of nucleation, i.e. upon the fraction of the total number of particles of seeding agent which are activated; this, in turn, will depend upon the fraction of particles which happen to possess suitable crystallographic faces for nucleation. Much may also depend upon the manner in which the test is performed. Since some nucleating materials produce ice crystals only after a delay of 30 seconds or more, they may appear to be ineffective if tested in the transient cloud of an expansion chamber but highly effective if allowed to remain in an ice-supersaturated atmosphere for a minute or more. Again, we have found that the efficiency of some nuclei is governed by the supersaturation as well as the temperature of the environment, and the supersaturation regimes in expansion, diffusion, and mixing-cloud chamber may be widely different. Highly soluble particles, although able to act as «sublimation» nuclei in atmospheres super-saturated relative to ice but sub-saturated relative to water, on entering a water cloud go quickly into solution and lose their nucleating ability.Inorganic substances which definitely nucleate a supercooled water cloud in a mixing-cloud chamber at temperatures of –15° C and above are: AgI (–4° C), PbI2 (–6° C), CuS (–6° C), Ag2S (–8° C), Ag2O (–9° C), HgI2 (–8° C), V2O5 (–14° C), Cu2I2 (–15° C), the figures in brackets indicating the threshold temperatures at which about one particle in 104 becomes active as an ice nucleus. Cadmium iodide (–12° C), ammonium fluoride (–9° C) and iodine (–14° C) are examples of salts which will act as sublimation nuclei in an ice-supersaturated atmosphere and will nucleate a supercooled soap film, but which are ineffective in a water cloud because of their solubility.Although the most efficient nucleating agents tend to be hexagonal in structure, there are some striking exceptions e.g. Ag2S, Ag2O, HgI2, but in most cases, we have been able to find a low-index crystal surface on which the ice lattice could grow with a misfit of only a few per cent.In an attempt to investigate the nucleation mechanism in more detail, we have studied the growth of ice on single crystals of various nucleating agents. Perfect orientation of ice crystals has so far been observed on the basal faces of silver iodide, lead iodide, cupric sulphide, cadmium iodide, and freshly-cleaved mica, on the (001) plane of iodine, and on the (010) plane of mercuric iodide.  相似文献   

19.
A comparison is carried out between historical records of the flow measured in Kinneret watershed during and prior to the time of cloud seeding for rainfall enhancement. Precipitation series for the control area of the meteorological experimentation serve as a reference for the comparison. The fluctuations of the flow, which would have occurred unless the effect of the seeding, are estimated by a linear regression on the precipitation as the control. The regression parameters are calibrated separately for the unseeded and for the seeded time series. The model with the parameters calibrated for the unseeded series is applied on the rainfall recorded during the seeded time, and vice versa. The difference between the measured and the computed data is attributed to the effect of cloud seeding. Similar comparisons are carried out with respect to rainfall series recorded at the target area and at the edge of the enhanced area.The results indicate that the flow from the affected sector of the watershed has been enhanced, with respect to the control, by 31×106 m 3/year, at a significance level of 31. This enhancement is 5% of the volume which is generated in that area. The rates found with respect to the rainfall at the edge are higher than those found with respect to the control, while those with respect to the rainfall at the center of the target area are lower.  相似文献   

20.
A comparison is carried out between historical records of the flow measured in Kinneret watershed during and prior to the time of cloud seeding for rainfall enhancement. Precipitation series for the control area of the meteorological experimentation serve as a reference for the comparison. The fluctuations of the flow, which would have occurred unless the effect of the seeding, are estimated by a linear regression on the precipitation as the control. The regression parameters are calibrated separately for the unseeded and for the seeded time series. The model with the parameters calibrated for the unseeded series is applied on the rainfall recorded during the seeded time, and vice versa. The difference between the measured and the computed data is attributed to the effect of cloud seeding. Similar comparisons are carried out with respect to rainfall series recorded at the target area and at the edge of the enhanced area.The results indicate that the flow from the affected sector of the watershed has been enhanced, with respect to the control, by 31×106 m 3/year, at a significance level of 31. This enhancement is 5% of the volume which is generated in that area. The rates found with respect to the rainfall at the edge are higher than those found with respect to the control, while those with respect to the rainfall at the center of the target area are lower.  相似文献   

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