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1.
Assimilating recent observations improves model outcomes for real-time assessments of groundwater processes. This is demonstrated in estimating time-varying recharge to a shallow fractured-rock aquifer in response to precipitation. Results from estimating the time-varying water-table altitude (h) and recharge, and their error covariances, are compared for forecasting, filtering, and fixed-lag smoothing (FLS), which are implemented using the Kalman Filter as applied to a data-driven, mechanistic model of recharge. Forecasting uses past observations to predict future states and is the current paradigm in most groundwater modeling investigations; filtering assimilates observations up to the current time to estimate current states; and FLS estimates states following a time lag over which additional observations are collected. Results for forecasting yield a large error covariance relative to the magnitude of the expected recharge. With assimilating recent observations of h, filtering and FLS produce estimates of recharge that better represent time-varying observations of h and reduce uncertainty in comparison to forecasting. Although model outcomes from applying data assimilation through filtering or FLS reduce model uncertainty, they are not necessarily mass conservative, whereas forecasting outcomes are mass conservative. Mass conservative outcomes from forecasting are not necessarily more accurate, because process errors are inherent in any model. Improvements in estimating real-time groundwater conditions that better represent observations need to be weighed for the model application against outcomes with inherent process deficiencies. Results from data assimilation strategies discussed in this investigation are anticipated to be relevant to other groundwater processes models where system states are sensitive to system inputs.  相似文献   

2.
This study synthesizes two different methods for estimating hydraulic conductivity (K) at large scales. We derive analytical approaches that estimate K and apply them to the contiguous United States. We then compare these analytical approaches to three-dimensional, national gridded K data products and three transmissivity (T) data products developed from publicly available sources. We evaluate these data products using multiple approaches: comparing their statistics qualitatively and quantitatively and with hydrologic model simulations. Some of these datasets were used as inputs for an integrated hydrologic model of the Upper Colorado River Basin and the comparison of the results with observations was used to further evaluate the K data products. Simulated average daily streamflow was compared to daily flow data from 10 USGS stream gages in the domain, and annually averaged simulated groundwater depths are compared to observations from nearly 2000 monitoring wells. We find streamflow predictions from analytically informed simulations to be similar in relative bias and Spearman's rho to the geologically informed simulations. R-squared values for groundwater depth predictions are close between the best performing analytically and geologically informed simulations at 0.68 and 0.70 respectively, with RMSE values under 10 m. We also show that the analytical approach derived by this study produces estimates of K that are similar in spatial distribution, standard deviation, mean value, and modeling performance to geologically-informed estimates. The results of this work are used to inform a follow-on study that tests additional data-driven approaches in multiple basins within the contiguous United States.  相似文献   

3.
Groundwater models developed for specific sites generally become obsolete within a few years due to changes in: (1) modeling technology; (2) site/project personnel; (3) project funding; and (4) modeling objectives. Consequently, new models are sometimes developed for the same sites using the latest technology and data, but without potential knowledge gained from the prior models. When it occurs, this practice is particularly problematic because, although technology, data, and observed conditions change, development of the new numerical model may not consider the conceptual model's underpinnings. As a contrary situation, we present the unique case of a numerical flow and trichloroethylene (TCE) transport model that was first developed in 1993 and since revised and updated annually by the same personnel. The updates are prompted by an increase in the amount of data, exposure to a wider range of hydrologic conditions over increasingly longer timeframes, technological advances, evolving modeling objectives, and revised modeling methodologies. The history of updates shows smooth, incremental changes in the conceptual model and modeled aquifer parameters that result from both increase and decrease in complexity. Myriad modeling objectives have included demonstrating the ineffectiveness of a groundwater extraction/injection system, evaluating potential TCE degradation, locating new monitoring points, and predicting likelihood of exceedance of groundwater standards. The application emphasizes an original tenet of successful groundwater modeling: iterative adjustment of the conceptual model based on observations of actual vs. model response.  相似文献   

4.
Submarine groundwater discharges (SGD) were investigated in a marine watershed in south‐eastern Korea using water budget analysis and a 222Rn mass balance model. Multi‐layered TOPMODEL added hydrological assumption was used to estimate groundwater components in the water budget analysis. Field observations of soil moisture, rainfall, runoff and groundwater fluctuations were used for calibration and validation of the hydrologic model. Based on observed hydrological data and terrain analyses, parameters for the hydrologic model were delineated and used to describe several hydrologic responses in the watershed. SGD estimations by 222Rn mass balance method were also performed at Il‐Gwang bay in July, 2010, and May, June, July and Nov. 2011. The estimated groundwater through hydrologic modeling and water balance analysis was 1.3x106 m3/year, which rapidly increased during typhoon season due to heavy rainfall and permeable geologic structure. The estimated groundwater was approximately 3.7–27.1% of SGD as evaluated by 222Rn mass balance method ranges 3.44 and 17.45 m3m?2year?1. Even though SGD is predominantly influenced by tide fluctuation, the head gradient (difference) from hydrologic processes associated with heavy rainfalls can also have extra significant influences. Comprehensive understanding of SGD evaluation can be improved through a simultaneous application of both these approaches. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Hydrologic models have increasingly been used in forest hydrology to overcome the limitations of paired watershed experiments, where vegetative recovery and natural variability obscure the inferences and conclusions that can be drawn from such studies. Models are also plagued by uncertainty, however, and parameter equifinality is a common concern. Physically‐based, spatially‐distributed hydrologic models must therefore be tested with high‐quality experimental data describing a multitude of concurrent internal catchment processes under a range of hydrologic regimes. This study takes a novel approach by not only examining the ability of a pre‐calibrated model to realistically simulate watershed outlet flows over a four year period, but a multitude of spatially‐extensive, internal catchment process observations not previously evaluated, including: continuous groundwater dynamics, instantaneous stream and road network flows, and accumulation and melt period spatial snow distributions. Many hydrologic model evaluations are only on the comparison of predicted and observed discharge at a catchment outlet and remain in the ‘infant stage’ in terms of model testing. This study, on the other hand, tests the internal spatial predictions of a distributed model with a range of field observations over a wide range of hydroclimatic conditions. Nash‐Sutcliffe model efficiency was improved over prior evaluations due to continuing efforts in improving the quality of meteorological data collection. Road and stream network flows were generally well simulated for a range of hydrologic conditions, and snowpack spatial distributions were well simulated for one of two years examined. The spatial variability of groundwater dynamics was effectively simulated, except at locations where strong stream–groundwater interactions exist. Model simulations overall were quite successful in realistically simulating the spatiotemporal variability of internal catchment processes in the watershed, but the premature onset of simulated snowmelt for one of the simulation years has prompted further work in model development. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
The spatial variability of snow water equivalent (SWE) can exert a strong influence on the timing and magnitude of snowmelt delivery to a watershed. Therefore, the representation of sub-grid or sub-watershed snow variability in hydrologic models is important for accurately simulating snowmelt dynamics and runoff response. The U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrologic Model infrastructure with the precipitation-runoff modelling system (NHM-PRMS) represents the sub-grid variability of SWE with snow depletion curves (SDCs), which relate snow-covered area to watershed-mean SWE during the snowmelt period. The main objective of this research was to evaluate the sensitivity of simulated runoff to SDC representation within the NHM-PRMS across the continental United States (CONUS). SDCs for the model experiment were derived assuming a range of SWE coefficient of variation values and a lognormal probability distribution function. The NHM-PRMS was simulated at a daily time step for each SDC over a 14-year period. Results highlight that increasing the sub-grid snow variability (by changing the SDC) resulted in a consistently slower snowmelt rate and longer snowmelt duration when averaged across the hydrologic response unit scale. Simulated runoff was also found to be sensitive to SDC representation, as decreases in simulated snowmelt rate by 1 mm day−1 resulted in decreases in runoff ratio by 1.8% on average in snow-dominated regions of the CONUS. Simulated decreases in runoff associated with slower snowmelt rates were approximately inversely proportional to increases in simulated evapotranspiration. High snow persistence and peak SWE:annual precipitation combined with a water-limited dryness index was associated with the greatest runoff sensitivity to changing snowmelt. Results from this study highlight the importance of carefully parameterizing SDCs for hydrologic modelling. Furthermore, improving model representation of snowmelt input variability and its relation to runoff generation processes is shown to be an important consideration for future modelling applications.  相似文献   

7.
This research was conducted to develop relationships among evapotranspiration (ET), percolation (PERC), groundwater discharge to the stream (GWQ), and water table fluctuations through a modeling approach. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic and crop models were applied in the Big Sunflower River watershed (BSRW; 7660 km2) within the Yazoo River Basin of the Lower Mississippi River alluvial plain. Results of this study showed good to very good model performances with the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index from 0.4 to 0.9, respectively, during both hydrologic and crop model calibration and validation. An empirical relationship between ET, PERC, GWQ, and water table fluctuations was able to predict 64% of the water table variation of the alluvial plain in this study. Thematic maps were developed to identify areas with overuse of groundwater, which can help watershed managers to develop water resource programs.  相似文献   

8.
Mexico City is situated in the Valley of Mexico on the extensive lacustrine clays that overlay highly productive aquifers of both volcanic and sedimentary origin. The Valley is closed by volcanic mountains. The natural hydraulic boundary conditions associated withe mountain ranges and their relationship to the important aquifers were studied using a two-dimensional, steady-state finite-element model in cross section. Four cross sections were analysed under hydrologic conditions existing prior to the large scale pumping of the aquifers. Factors such as bulk hydraulic conductivities and regional infiltration rates were obtained from field observations and the literature to assess location of the associated groundwater divides, and the water-table in the mountains. The modeled flow patterns are consistent with the historical hydrologic records piezometric characteristics and observed surface features of the groundwater in the Basin of Mexico. From the modeling results, the groundwater recharge in the mountains is 30–50% of the mean average precipitation. Higher and lower rates result in a flow regime that is not compatible with field observations. In general the location of the divides in the mountains is displaced towards the Valley of Mexico, which influences the groundwater budget of the Valley. The water table in places is several hundred metres below ground surface, in accordance with field observations of a very thick unsaturated zone. Before major aquifer exploitation began about 50 years ago, 40–50% of the total discharge into the Valley was by upward flow through the lacustrine deposits. The best results were obtained using a subsurface distribution of hydrostratigraphic units based on recently published geological interpretations.  相似文献   

9.
Groundwater supplies a significant proportion of water use in the United States and is critical to the maintenance of healthy ecosystems and environmental processes, thus characterizing aquifer hydrology is important to managing and preserving these resources. While groundwater isotopes provide insight into hydrologic and ecologic processes, their application is limited to where measurements exist. To help overcome this limitation, we used the random forest algorithm to develop a predictive model for shallow groundwater isotopes in the conterminous United States. Our model uses environmental variables (e.g. temperature, elevation, precipitation isotopes) as predictors. We used our model to develop the first shallow groundwater isoscape of δ2H and δ18O for the conterminous United States. We describe the patterns in groundwater isotopes using both observations and our modelled isoscape. We find that throughout much of the Eastern United States, groundwater isotopes are close to annual amount weighted precipitation, while groundwater isotopes are significantly depleted relative precipitation across much of the High Plains and Western United States. Furthermore, we compare the observations compiled for this study to isotopes of precipitation, which allows us to determine the relative recharge efficiency (i.e. ratio of groundwater recharge to precipitation) between seasons and the proportion of annual recharge that occurs in a given season. Our findings suggest that winter recharge is generally more efficient than summer recharge; however, the dominant recharge season is more varied as it is the product of both seasonal recharge efficiency and the seasonal timing of precipitation. Parts of the central United States have summer dominant recharge, which is likely the result of heavy summer precipitation/nocturnal summer precipitation. Interestingly, parts of coastal California appear to have summer dominant recharge, which we suggest could be due to recharge from fog-drip. Our results summarize spatial patterns in groundwater isotopes across the conterminous United States, provide insight into the hydrologic processes affecting shallow groundwater, and are valuable information for future ecologic and hydrologic studies.  相似文献   

10.
Most rivers worldwide have a strong interaction with groundwater when they leave the mountains and flow over alluvial plains before flowing into the seas or disappearing in the deserts, and in New Zealand, typically, rivers lose water to the groundwater in the upper plains and generally gain water from the groundwater in the lower plains. Aiming at simulating surface water–groundwater interaction nationally in New Zealand, we developed a conceptual groundwater module for the national hydrologic model TopNet to simulate surface water–groundwater interaction, groundwater flow, and intercatchment groundwater flow. The developed model was applied to the Pareora catchment in South Island of New Zealand, where there are concurrent spot gauged flows. Results show that the model simulations not only fit quite well to flow measurement but also to concurrent spot gauged flows, and compared to the original TopNet, it has a significant improvement in the low flows. Sensitivity analysis shows river flow is sensitive to the river losing/gaining rate instead of groundwater characteristic, while groundwater storage is sensitive to both river losing/gaining rate and groundwater characteristic. This indicates our conceptual approach is promising for nationwide modeling without the large amount of geology and aquifer data typically required by physically‐based modeling approaches.  相似文献   

11.
Over the past century, groundwater levels in California's San Joaquin Valley have dropped by more than 30 m in some areas mostly due to excessive groundwater extraction used to irrigate agricultural lands and sustain a growing population. Between 2012 and 2015, California experienced the worst drought in its recorded history, depleting surface water supplies and further exacerbating groundwater depletion in the region. Due to a lack of groundwater regulation, exact quantities of extracted groundwater in California are unknown and hard to quantify. Recent adoption of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act has intensified efforts to identify sustainable groundwater use. However, understanding sustainable use in a highly productive agricultural system with an extremely complex surface water allocation system, variable groundwater use, and spatially extensive and diverse irrigation practices is no easy task. Using an integrated hydrologic model coupled with a land surface model, we evaluated how water management activities, specifically a suite of irrigation and groundwater pumping scenarios, impact surface water–groundwater fluxes and storage components and how those activities and the relationships between them change during drought. Results showed that groundwater pumping volume had the most significant impact on long-term water storage changes. A comparison with total water storage anomaly (TWSA) estimates from NASA's Gravity Recover and Climate Experiment (GRACE) provided some insight regarding which combinations of pumping and irrigation matched the GRACE TWSA estimates, lending credibility to these scenarios. In addition, the majority of long-term water storage changes during the recent drought occurred in groundwater storage in the deeper subsurface.  相似文献   

12.
A physically constrained wavelet-aided statistical model (PCWASM) is presented to analyse and predict monthly groundwater dynamics on multi-decadal or longer time scales. The approach retains the simplicity of regression modelling but is constrained by temporal scales of processes responsible for groundwater level variation, including aquifer recharge and pumping. The methodology integrates statistical correlations enhanced with wavelet analysis into established principles of groundwater hydraulics including convolution, superposition and the Cooper–Jacob solution. The systematic approach includes (1) identification of hydrologic trends and correlations using cross-correlation and multi-time scale wavelet analyses; (2) integrating temperature-based evapotranspiration and groundwater pumping stresses and (3) assessing model prediction performances using fixed-block k-fold cross-validation and split calibration-validation methods. The approach is applied at three hydrogeologicaly distinct sites in North Florida in the United States using over 40 years of monthly groundwater levels. The systematic approach identifies two patterns of cross-correlations between groundwater levels and historical rainfall, indicating low-frequency variabilities are critical for long-term predictions. The models performed well for predicting monthly groundwater levels from 7 to 22 years with less than 2.1 ft (0.7 m) errors. Further evaluation by the moving-block bootstrap regression indicates the PCWASM can be a reliable tool for long-term groundwater level predictions. This study provides a parsimonious approach to predict multi-decadal groundwater dynamics with the ability to discern impacts of pumping and climate change on aquifer levels. The PCWASM is computationally efficient and can be implemented using publicly available datasets. Thus, it should provide a versatile tool for managers and researchers for predicting multi-decadal monthly groundwater levels under changing climatic and pumping impacts over a long time period.  相似文献   

13.
High‐elevation mountain catchments are often subject to large climatic and topographic gradients. Therefore, high‐density hydrogeochemical observations are needed to understand water sources to streamflow and the temporal and spatial behaviour of flow paths. These sources and flow paths vary seasonally, which dictates short‐term storage and the flux of water in the critical zone (CZ) and affect long‐term CZ evolution. This study utilizes multiyear observations of chemical compositions and water residence times from the Santa Catalina Mountains Critical Zone Observatory, Tucson, Arizona to develop and evaluate competing conceptual models of seasonal streamflow generation. These models were tested using endmember mixing analysis, baseflow recession analysis, and tritium model “ages” of various catchment water sources. A conceptual model involving four endmembers (precipitation, soil water, shallow, and deep groundwater) provided the best match to observations. On average, precipitation contributes 39–69% (55 ± 16%), soil water contributes 25–56% (41 ± 16%), shallow groundwater contributes 1–5% (3 ± 2%), and deep groundwater contributes ~0–3% (1 ± 1%) towards annual streamflow. The mixing space comprised two principal planes formed by (a) precipitation‐soil water‐deep groundwater (dry and summer monsoon season samples) and (b) precipitation‐soil water‐shallow groundwater (winter season samples). Groundwater contribution was most important during the wet winter season. During periods of high dynamic groundwater storage and increased hydrologic connectivity (i.e., spring snowmelt), stream water was more geochemically heterogeneous, that is, geochemical heterogeneity of stream water is storage‐dependent. Endmember mixing analysis and 3H model age results indicate that only 1.4 ± 0.3% of the long‐term annual precipitation becomes deep CZ groundwater flux that influences long‐term deep CZ development through both intercatchment and intracatchment deep groundwater flows.  相似文献   

14.
Water balances have been constructed for three catchments using monthly data on rainfall (P), evapotranspiration (ET), stream discharge (Q) and groundwater levels. Length of record on the three catchments is 12, 8 and 6 years. Monthly, seasonal, and annual residuals (R) of the surface water balance equation R = PQET are used to infer changes in groundwater storage and are plotted against observed changes in groundwater storage (WTD). Linear regression analysis between R and WTD is used to examine the nature of the catchments' storage characteristics, the watertightness of the catchments, and the possibility that systematic measurement errors accumulate as the balance period lengthens.  相似文献   

15.
Groundwater elevation fluctuation has been recognized as one mechanism causing temporal indoor air volatile organic chemical (VOC) impacts in vapor intrusion risk assessment guidance. For dissolved VOC sources, groundwater table fluctuation shortens/lengthens the transport pathway, and delivers dissolved contaminants to soils that are alternating between water saturated and variably saturated conditions, thereby enhancing volatilization potential. To date, this mechanism has not been assessed with field data, but enhanced VOC emission flux has been observed in lab-scale and modeling studies. This work evaluates the impact of groundwater elevation changes on VOC emission flux from a dissolved VOC plume into a house, supplemented with modeling results for cyclic groundwater elevation changes. Indoor air concentrations, air exchange rates, and depth to groundwater (DTW) were collected at the study house during an 86-d constant building underpressurization test. These data were used to calculate changes in trichloroethylene (TCE) emission flux to indoor air, during a period when DTW varied daily and seasonally from about 3.1 to 3.4 m below the building foundation (BF). Overall, TCE flux to indoor air varied by about 50% of the average, without any clear correlation to changes in DTW or its change rate. To complement the field study, TCE surface emission fluxes were simulated using a one-dimensional model (HYDRUS 1D) for conditions similar to the field site. Simulation results showed time-averaged surface TCE fluxes for cyclic water-table elevations were greater than for stationary water-table conditions at an equivalent time-averaged water-table position. The magnitudes of temporal TCE emission flux changes were generally less than 50% of the time-averaged flux, consistent with the field site observations. Simulation results also suggested that TCE emission flux changes due to groundwater fluctuation are likely to be significant at sites with shallow groundwater (e.g., < 0.5 m BF) and permeable soil types (e.g., sand).  相似文献   

16.
This paper describes how climate influences the hydrology of an ephemeral depressional wetland. Surface water and groundwater elevation data were collected for 7 years in a Coastal Plain watershed in South Carolina USA containing depressional wetlands, known as Carolina bays. Rainfall and temperature data were compared with water‐table well and piezometer data in and around one wetland. Using these data a conceptual model was created that describes the hydrology of the system under wet, dry, and drought conditions. The data suggest this wetland operates as a focal point for groundwater recharge under most climate conditions. During years of below‐normal to normal rainfall the hydraulic gradient indicated the potential for groundwater recharge from the depression, whereas during years of above‐normal rainfall, the hydraulic gradient between the adjacent upland, the wetland margin, and the wetland centre showed the potential for groundwater discharge into the wetland. Using high‐resolution water‐level measurements, this groundwater discharge condition was found to hold true even during individual rainfall events, especially under wet antecedent soil conditions. The dynamic nature of the hydrology in this Carolina bay clearly indicates it is not an isolated system as previously believed, and our groundwater data expand upon previous hydrologic investigations at similar sites which do not account for the role of groundwater in estimating the water budget of such systems. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
One of the first and most important decisions facing practitioners when constructing a numerical groundwater model is vertical discretization. Several factors will influence this decision, such as the conceptual model of the system and hydrostratigraphy, data availability, resulting computational burden, and the purpose of the modeling analysis. Using a coarse vertical discretization is an attractive option for practitioners because it reduces data requirements and model construction efforts, can increase model stability, and can reduce computational demand. However, using a coarse vertical discretization as a form of model simplification is not without consequence; this may give rise to unwanted side-effects such as biases in decision-relevant simulated outputs. Given its foundational role in the modeled representation of the aquifer system, herein we investigate how vertical discretization may affect decision-relevant simulated outputs using a paired complex-simple model analysis. A Bayesian framework and decision analysis approach are adopted. Two case studies are considered, one of a synthetic, linked unsaturated-zone/surface-water/groundwater hydrologic model and one of a real-world linked surface-water/groundwater hydrologic-nitrate transport model. With these models, we analyze decisions related to abstraction-induced changes in ecologically important streamflow characteristics and differences in groundwater and surface-water nitrate concentrations and mass loads following potential land-use change. We show that for some decision-relevant simulated outputs, coarse vertical discretization induces bias in important simulated outputs, and can lead to incorrect resource management action. For others, a coarse vertical discretization has little or no consequence for resource management decision-making.  相似文献   

18.
19.
The transferability of hydrologic models is of ever increasing importance for making improved hydrologic predictions and testing hypothesized hydrologic drivers. Here, we present an investigation into the variability and transferability of the recently introduced catchment connectivity model (Smith et al., 2013 ). The catchment connectivity model was developed following extensive experimental observations identifying the key drivers of streamflow in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest (Jencso et al., 2009 ; Jencso et al., 2010 ), with the goal of creating a simple model consistent with internal observations of catchment hydrologic connectivity patterns. The model was applied across seven catchments located within Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest to investigate spatial variability and transferability of model performance and parameterization. The results demonstrated that the model resulted in historically good fits (based on previous studies at the sites) to both the hydrograph and internal water table dynamics (corroborated with experimental observations). The impact of a priori parameter limits was also examined. It was observed that enforcing field‐based limits on model parameters resulted in slight reductions to streamflow hydrograph fits, but significant improvements to model process fidelity (as hydrologic connectivity), as well as moderate improvement in the transferability of model parameterizations from one catchment to the next. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Process-based watershed models are useful tools for understanding the impacts of natural and anthropogenic influences on water resources and for predicting water and solute fluxes exported from watersheds to receiving water bodies. The applicability of process-based hydrologic models has been previously limited to small catchments and short time frames. Computational demands, especially the solution to the three-dimensional subsurface flow domain, continue to pose significant constraints. This paper documents the mathematical development, numerical testing and the initial application of a new distributed hydrologic model PAWS (Process-based Adaptive Watershed Simulator). The model solves the governing equations for the major hydrologic processes efficiently so that large scale applications become relevant. PAWS evaluates the integrated hydrologic response of the surface–subsurface system using a novel non-iterative method that couples runoff and groundwater flow to vadose zone processes approximating the 3D Richards equation. The method is computationally efficient and produces physically consistent solutions. All flow components have been independently verified using analytical solutions and experimental data where applicable. The model is applied to a medium-sized watershed in Michigan (1169 km2) achieving high performance metrics in terms of streamflow prediction at two gages during the calibration and verification periods. PAWS uses public databases as input and possesses full capability to interact with GIS datasets. Future papers will describe applications to other watersheds and the development and application of fate and transport modules.  相似文献   

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