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1.
Fire is an important disturbance agent for terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions where its occurrence is controlled by multiple biophysical and anthropogenic variables. We assessed the temporal and spatial patterns of active fire detections (MODIS product MCD14ML) in the Caribbean region of Colombia between 2003 and 2015, using time series, cross-correlation, hot spot and density techniques. We also assessed the environmental envelope of active fires by evaluating the effect of multiple biophysical and anthropogenic variables on fire presence/absence using generalized linear models (GLMs). Results show that fires follow a clear intra-annual cycle, with 86% of fire events taking place during the region's main dry season (December–March). There is also inter-annual variability related to the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) quasi-decadal climatic oscillation. Active fires exhibit a distinctive spatial pattern, with regional hotspots. The set of variables that best explain fire presence/absence include biophysical (TNA, temperature annual range, dry quarter precipitation), anthropogenic (minimum distance to towns and roads) and composite (NDVI) variables. The extensive and ongoing land cover transformation of this region, from forest to pasture and agriculture, will likely increase the extent of burned areas and future carbon fire emissions to the atmosphere. 相似文献
2.
自然和人为因素引发的植被火是全球生态系统的重要干扰因子,而基于卫星获取的活跃火（active fires）是探究人-火关系与活跃火发生机理、扩展机制的基础。相对于陆域活跃火,海上活跃火发生的时空动态及其强度、类型等研究较为薄弱。基于VIIRS活跃火和海洋地形等数据,通过分析中国东南海域活跃火发生的时间规律、强度特征、地形属性和距海岸线距离等特性,初步确定了海上活跃火类型界定体系。结果表明：(1)本区相同位置活跃火发生具有时序性。2015年前后两年内相同位置活跃火逐渐减少,且低纬地区更突出;而2015年前后三年内低纬地区活跃火发生强度稳定、高纬地区逐渐减少。(2)中国东南海域活跃火呈现明显的空间集-疏特征,即沿岸海域“条带状”聚集区、以曾母暗沙为中心的“团状”聚集区、南海诸岛周围的分散区。(3) 2012—2013年、2015年、2020年活跃火总强度与其月均强度变化一致,即其发生强度增强归因于活跃火的面状、分散发生;2014年、2016—2019年活跃火总强度与月均强度峰值不同步,即其强度增强归因于活跃火的点状、集中发生。(4)基于时空、强度和集聚特征,结合人类活动频繁区布局,将发生时... 相似文献
3.
Jonathan Corcoran Gary Higgs Chris Brunsdon Andrew Ware 《The Professional geographer》2007,59(4):521-536
This article reports on the results from a spatiotemporal analysis of disaggregate fire incident data. The innovative analysis presented here focuses on the exploration of spatial and temporal patterns for four principal fire incident categories: property, vehicle, secondary fires, and malicious false alarms. This research extends previous work on spatial exploration of spatiotemporal patterns by demonstrating the benefits of comaps and kernel density estimation in examining temporal and spatiotemporal dynamics in calls for services. Results indicate that fire incidents are not static in either time or space and that spatiotemporal variation is related to incident type. The application of these techniques has the potential to inform policy decisions both from a reactive, resource‐allocation perspective and from a more proactive perspective, such as through spatial targeting of preventive measures. 相似文献
4.
土地利用变化的多尺度空间自相关分析——以内蒙古翁牛特旗为例 总被引：52，自引：5，他引：47
用传统统计学方法模拟和解释土地利用变化的前提条件是研究分析的数据在统计上必须独立且均匀分布。但是空间数据相互之间通常具有依赖性 (即空间自相关),某一变量的值随着测定距离的缩小而变得更相似或更为不同。由于经典线性回归方法未能抓住数据的空间自相关特征,而空间自相关包含一些有用的信息,为了克服这一缺点,利用Moran的I系数自相关图来描述研究区土地利用变化的空间自相关,并且建立了不仅考虑回归而且又考虑空间自相关的混合回归-空间自相关回归模型 (即空间滞后模型)。研究得到：① 研究区土地利用变化模型中不但自变量之间而且因变量之间存在空间正自相关,这表明土地利用变化数据的空间自相关很强;② Moran的I系数随着尺度的变粗而减小,这是由于数据平均时的滤波特性和Moran的I系数对距离的非线性特征造成的;③ 经典线性回归模型的残差也表现出正相关,这表明标准的多元线性回归模型未能考虑土地利用数据所存在的空间依赖性;④ 混合回归-空间自相关回归模型 (即空间滞后模型) 的残差未存在空间自相关,并且有更好的拟合度;⑤ 相对于经典线性回归模型,混合回归-空间自相关回归模型 (即空间滞后模型) 对于存在空间自相关性的数据来说有着统计上的合理性,而经典线性回归模型未能考虑这些因素。 相似文献
5.
Hanbin Kwak Joachim Saborowski Si-Young Lee Myoung-Soo Won Kyo-Sang Koo 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(9):1589-1602
Most forest fires in Korea are spatially concentrated in certain areas and are highly related to human activities. These site-specific characteristics of forest fires are analyzed by spatial regression analysis using the R-module generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), which can consider spatial autocorrelation. We examined the quantitative effect of topology, human accessibility, and forest cover without and with spatial autocorrelation. Under the assumption that slope, elevation, aspect, population density, distance from road, and forest cover are related to forest fire occurrence, the explanatory variables of each of these factors were prepared using a Geographic Information System-based process. First, we tried to test the influence of fixed effects on the occurrence of forest fires using a generalized linear model (GLM) with Poisson distribution. In addition, the overdispersion of the response data was also detected, and variogram analysis was performed using the standardized residuals of GLM. Second, GLMM was applied to consider the obvious residual autocorrelation structure. The fitted models were validated and compared using the multiple correlation and root mean square error (RMSE). Results showed that slope, elevation, aspect index, population density, and distance from road were significant factors capable of explaining the forest fire occurrence. Positive spatial autocorrelation was estimated up to a distance of 32 km. The kriging predictions based on GLMM were smoother than those of the GLM. Finally, a forest fire occurrence map was prepared using the results from both models. The fire risk decreases with increasing distance to areas with high population densities, and increasing elevation showed a suppressing effect on fire occurrence. Both variables are in accordance with the significance tests. 相似文献
6.
以Fire_CCI51为主要数据源,应用GIS空间分析技术对呼伦贝尔地区2001—2019年草原火的时空分布进行了研究,结果发现：呼伦贝尔草原火时间上具有年际波动较大、循环周期不定和春、秋两季双峰式集中的特点;空间上集中分布在东部森林草原、边境线附近,呈现出东多西少、北多南少的格局。利用相关分析方法对主要气象因子（平均降水量、最高气温、最小相对湿度、最大风速）与草原火之间的关系进行了深入分析,发现气象因子与草原火之间不存在显著相关;通过对呼伦贝尔市1981—2015年的草原起火原因统计数据分析发现,人类活动是导致草原火发生的主要因素。应用空间分析方法对边境线20 km缓冲区内的草原火进行了提取,发现境外过火面积远高于境内而且俄罗斯的过火面积远高于蒙古和中国。 相似文献
7.
MODIS C6、VIIRS V1和VIIRS J1是NASA火灾信息资源管理系统（FIRMS）2020年首次同步发布的三套全球活跃火遥感产品。鉴于卫星过赤道时间、空间分辨率、火情监测算法有别,分析MODIS和VIIRS不同活跃火产品监测结果一致性和差异性,对明确不同火产品的适用性至关重要。利用中南半岛同年活跃火矢量产品,通过GIS渔网（1 km）定量分析不同时间尺度（全年、旱/雨季和昼/夜）活跃火发生的频次与强度特征,横向对比了三套活跃火产品的一致性与差异。结果表明：① 中南半岛三套产品逐月发生频次一致性最高,逐日次之,逐时最低。全年“有火区”格网占比37.23%,其中VIIRS相应比重三倍于MODIS,且J1略高于V1。三套产品两两比较时,VIIRS V1/VIIRS J1组合总体一致性最高,VIIRS J1/MODIS C6组合一致性最低。② 三套产品旱季“有火区”占比、活跃火发生频次与强度均显著高于雨季,且VIIRS V1与J1活跃火发生强度空间分布一致性更高。旱季V1活跃火累积发生频次最高、发生强度更强;雨季J1相应频次最高,发生强度较强。③ 三套产品白天“有火区”占比、活跃火累积发生频次均高于夜间,发生强度空间分布一致性亦高于夜间,其中VIIRS V1与J1夜间一致性最高。且昼/夜V1活跃火累积发生频次和“有火区”占比均最高,但J1发生强度最强。④ VIIRS V1与J1监测精度更高,空间覆盖范围更广,且VIIRS V1更适用于旱季、白天和夜间活跃火相关研究,而VIIRS J1对雨季活跃火的探测水平更高,但MODIS C6的优势在于历史数据丰富。 相似文献
8.
中南半岛旱季VIIRS活跃火的空间特征与国别差异 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
热带是全球活跃火(active fire)的集中发生区,客观认识其空间特征、国别差异及其动态变化对评估区域生物质燃烧及其碳排放等具有重要意义。作为热带季风气候典型区,中南半岛旱季活跃火发生发展空间特征及其动态变化仍缺乏清晰认识。为此,论文利用可见光红外成像辐射仪(VIIRS) S-NPP 2012—2019年活跃火矢量数据,基于核密度与空间自相关评价了中南半岛及国别旱季尤其是其特征月份(2—4月)活跃火发生发展的密集程度、集聚特征及其动态变化。结果表明：① 中南半岛活跃火核密度低值区占比最大(79%),高值区最小(4%);柬埔寨、缅甸、老挝等经济落后国家的核密度均值明显高于泰国和越南;2012—2019年核密度高值区具有朝高海拔、向内陆与趋边境等分布特征,且柬埔寨东北部长居高值区。② 活跃火核密度中值区变化集中在1—4月,且多分布在低、高值区周围;高值区变化集中在2—4月,由柬埔寨东北部逐渐向缅甸东/西部、泰国西北部以及老挝北/南部转移。③ 半岛与5国活跃火核密度在旱季具有显著空间正相关性,空间集聚类型以“高—高”型和“低—低”型集聚为主,越南、柬埔寨等国局部自相关性强于泰国和老挝。 相似文献
9.
KRISHNA PRASAD VADREVU 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2008,90(4):315-328
Vegetation fires are one of the most serious environmental problems in several ecoregions of India. The purpose of this study is to characterize spatio‐temporal characteristics of fire events in Orissa state, eastern India. In this study, ATSR satellite remote sensing data have been used to quantify fire events from 1997 to 2006. The spatial scan statistic that quantifies ‘hotspot’ areas of fire risk has been used to identify statistically significant fire clusters during the ten‐year time period. To assess the causative factors of fires, topographic, vegetation, climatic, anthropogenic and accessibility factors were used in a robust multivariate statistical framework. Results suggested a clear variation in hotspots of fire occurrences among districts. Of the several districts, the most likely cluster of fire events has been identified in Jharsuguda district followed by secondary clusters in Gajapati, Phulbani, Anugul, Debagarh, Balangir and Raygada. The first three principal components (PCs) from multivariate statistical analysis could explain 70.48% of variance in biophysical and socio‐economic indicators of fire events. The loadings were fairly large and highly positive for deciduous forest percentage, elevation, slope mean, aspect mean, and rural population density in the first PC explaining 40.21% of variance. The second PC included drought index, average temperature and illiteracy explaining nearly 19.2% variance. The third PC had a strong positive association with cropped area and forest cover explaining 10.98% of the total variance. Overall, by quantifying the disparities in fire events in space and time, this study demonstrates the utility of the spatial scan statistic in identifying priority areas of fire risk. Our results on fire hotspots and causative factors of risk can guide forest managers toward the best management strategies for avoiding damage to forests, human life, and personal property in the study area. 相似文献
10.
Amy Hessl Jennifer Miller James Kernan David Keenum Don McKenzie 《The Professional geographer》2007,59(1):87-104
Fire history studies have traditionally emphasized temporal rather than spatial properties of paleo‐fire regimes. In this study we compare four methods of mapping paleo‐fires in central Washington from binary point data: indicator kriging, inverse distance weighting, Thiessen polygons, and an expert approach. We evaluate the results of each mapping method using a test (validation) dataset and receiver operating characteristic plots. Interpolation methods perform well, but results vary with fire size and spatial pattern of points. Though all methods involve some subjectivity, automated interpolation methods perform well, are replicable, and can be applied across varying landscapes. 相似文献
11.
Natural disturbances such as fires have been widely studied, but less is known about their spatial ecology than about other aspects of them. We reconstructed and mapped pre–Euro‐American fire history in a subalpine forest landscape in southeastern Wyoming, and analyzed the fires using GIS. Mean fire interval varies little with topography (elevation, aspect, slope) and is spatially autocorrelated at distances of at least 2 km. Fires often spread downslope, and spread more than expected from the north and south and less than expected from the west, under the influence of particular synoptic climatic conditions. The landscape of 1868 a.d., at the time of Euro‐American settlement, was strongly influenced by fires. However, it contained large patches of connected forest and few high‐contrast edges, unlike the modern landscape, which is fragmented by industrial forestry and roads. The spatial ecology of the natural fire regime may be a useful guide for management. 相似文献
12.
《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2018,39(2):281-299
This paper examines spatial and temporal patterns of large to medium‐sized fires across the Indonesian Archipelago using remote sensing, particularly the MODIS fire products, over a 14 years period (2000–13 inclusive) in conjunction with climatic and land data in a GIS. Results showed fires (burned area and number of fires) were detected the most in year 2002 and least in 2010. The extent of burning was correlated with the annual Southern Oscillation Index with most burning occurring during times of sustained negative SOI values, which generally means drier conditions across the region. Most of the detected fires occurred in the middle of the dry season and in drier eastern Indonesia. Across Indonesia, approximately 1.5 per cent of available open vegetation area burned, whereas only 0.5 per cent of forest area burned. Most open vegetation burning was detected in the savanna with an area equivalent to 11.1 per cent of its extent being burned over the 14 years. On Sumba Island, where the pronounced dry season extends for at least four months, open vegetation is the most common land cover type, of which 99 per cent burned by area over the study period making it the island with the most burned areas in the Indonesian Archipelago. 相似文献
13.
Influences of forest roads on the spatial patterns of human- and lightning-caused wildfire ignitions 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ganapathy Narayanaraj Michael C. Wimberly 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2012,32(2):878-888
Understanding the spatial patterns of fire ignitions and fire sizes is essential for understanding fire regimes. Although previous studies have documented associations of human-caused fire ignitions with road corridors, less consideration has been given to understanding the multiple influences of roads on the fire regime at a broader landscape-scale. Therefore, we examined the difference between lightning- and human-caused fire ignitions in relation to forest road corridors and other anthropogenic and biophysical factors in the eastern Cascade Mountains of Washington State. We used geographical information systems and case-control logistic regression models to assess the relative importance of these explanatory variables that influence the locations of lightning versus human-caused ignitions.We found that human-caused ignitions were concentrated close to roads, in high road density areas, and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI). In contrast, lightning-caused ignitions were concentrated in low road density areas, away from WUI, and in low population density areas. Lightning-caused ignitions were also associated with fuels and climatic and topographic factors. A weak but significant relationship between lightning-caused fire and proximity to gravel roads may be related to fuels near roads or to bias in detection and reporting of lightning-caused fires near roads. Although most small fires occurred in roaded areas, they accounted for only a small proportion of the total burned area. In contrast, the large fires in roadless and wilderness areas accounted for most of the burned area. Thus, from the standpoint of the total area burned, the effect of forest roads on restricting fire size is likely greater than the impact of roads on increasing fire ignitions. The results of our study suggest that roads and their edge effect area should be more widely acknowledged as a unique type of landscape effect in fire research and management. 相似文献
14.
Stefania Bertazzon Isabelle Couloigner Fox E. Underwood 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(7):1335-1354
We analysed the spatial distribution of nitrogen dioxide over Calgary (Canada) in summer 2010 and winter 2011 and in summer 2015 and winter 2016, and estimated land use regressions for 2015–16 (2010–11 models were estimated previously). As nitrogen dioxide exhibited spatial clustering, we evaluated the following spatial specifications against a linear model: spatially autoregressive (lag), spatially autoregressive (error), and geographically weighted regression. The spatially autoregressive (lag) specification performed best, achieving goodness-of-fit aligned with or greater than values reported in the literature. We compared the 2015–16 spatially autoregressive models with the 2010–11 models and reparametrized them on the 2010–11 and the 2015–16 data. Finally, we identified a single set of predictors to best fit the data. Nitrogen dioxide concentration decreased over the 5 years, retaining consistent spatial and seasonal patterns, with higher concentrations over traffic corridors and industrial areas, and greater variation in summer than winter. The multi-temporal analysis suggested that spatial land use regressions were robust over the time interval, despite moderate land use change. Multi-temporal spatial land use regressions yielded consistent predictors for each season over time, which can aid estimation of air pollution at fine spatial resolution over an extended time period. 相似文献
15.
Katarina Pavlek Filip Bišćević Petra Furčić Ana Grđan Vesna Gugić Nino Malešić 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2017,117(1):22-35
Wildfires are an important factor of landscape dynamics in fire-prone environments of the world. In the Mediterranean, one of the most fire-susceptible environments globally, between 45,000 and 50,000 wildfires are recorded every year, causing disturbances in forest and grassland ecosystems. As a Mediterranean country, Croatia faces these problems, averaging over 1000 registered wildfires annually, with the coastal areas dominated by forest fires and continental Croatia by fires on agricultural lands. This research combines various landscape and socio-economic factors in the analysis of fire occurrence in Croatia’s southernmost region of Dalmatia. Around 275 of the largest fires (encompassing 98% of the total burnt area) registered in 2013 were investigated using OLS, and different spatial indices were employed to analyse regional variability in fire distribution. The results revealed that areas more prone to fires are the northern inland areas of Dalmatia and its entire coastal zone. Altitude and vegetation type demonstrated a correlation with fire occurrence, but an increase in population in the study area was also correlated with wildfire occurrence. Regarding vegetation, the grasslands and Mediterranean shrubland (maquis) were found to be the most fire-prone vegetation types in the study region, the distribution of which can be linked to different socio-economic and demographic processes occurring in the Eastern Adriatic. 相似文献
16.
Hourly wind data from a network of climate stations in the north-central United States (drawn from the states of Illinois, lowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin) are analyzed to evaluate the efficacy of spatial analyses of near-surface wind speed and power. Spatial autocorrelation functions (acfs) were calculated at a number of timescales: annual, monthly, daily, and hourly. Annual wind speeds have virtually no coherent distance-decay relationship; monthly data produce a more consistent relationship, but still exhibit a large amount of scatter. Both daily and hourly data have classical decay with increasing distance between stations and there appears to be an optimal level of temporal aggregation, near the daily timescale, for spatial analysis of wind. In general, however, spatial acfs overestimate the spatial coherence of both wind speed and power. Temporal nonstationarities in wind data (i.e., diurnal and annual cycles) bias spatial autocorrelation functions and need to be removed before using spatial acfs to estimate characteristics of wind fields. Because mean absolute differences (MAD) of interstation wind speed and power are less affected by temporal nonstationarities, they produce more-robust representations of the spatial variability of wind speed and power. As a result, spatial MADs are recommended over spatial acfs for analyzing spatial coherence and decay of any spatial variable that contains nonstationarities. Methods for improving the spatial analysis of wind are discussed. [Key words: wind energy, spatial autocorrelation, spatial analysis, nonstationarity, north-central United States.] 相似文献
17.
时空因素对中国城市火灾态势变化的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于空间动态面板数据模型,对2000～2009年中国市域城市火灾数据进行分析,探讨经济发展与气候变化共同作用下时空因素对中国城市火灾态势变化的宏观影响。结果显示:气候变干促使火灾恶化,而经济发展扭转了这种趋势并促使火灾态势整体改善。时空因素对中国城市火灾态势变化具有显著影响,并可被引申为火灾同化效应、火灾惯性效应、火灾警示效应。火灾安全管理部门应该充分利用这些效应,采取积极措施改善火灾态势。本文补充了城市地理学在城市火灾领域的研究不足;将抽象的时空因素引申为具有实际物理含义的虚拟变量,对相关研究具有借鉴意义。 相似文献
18.
Jenny E. Goldstein Laura Graham Sofyan Ansori Yenni Vetrita Andri Thomas Grahame Applegate Andrew P. Vayda Bambang H. Saharjo Mark A. Cochrane 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2020,41(2):190-208
Near-annual landscape-scale fires in Indonesia's peatlands have caused severe air pollution, economic losses, and health impacts for millions of Southeast Asia residents. While the extent of fires across the peatland surface has been widely attributed to widespread peatland drainage for plantation agriculture, fires that transition from surface into sub-surface soil-based fires are the source of the most dangerous air pollution. Yet the mechanisms by which this transition occurs have rarely been considered, particularly in diversely managed landscapes. Integrating physical geography methods, including active fire scene evaluations and hydrological monitoring, with qualitative methods such as retrospective fire scene evaluations and semi-structured interviews, this article discusses how and why sub-surface peat fire transition occurs in an intensively altered peatland ecosystem in Indonesia's Central Kalimantan province. We demonstrate that variable water table levels and flammable surface vegetation (fire fuels) are co-produced socio-political and biophysical phenomena that enable the conditions in which surface fire is likely to transition into peat fire and increase landscape vulnerability to ongoing, uncontrollable annual fires. This localized understanding of peat fire transition counters normative causal narratives of tropical fire such as ‘slash-and-burn’, with implications for the management of new fire regimes in inhabited landscapes. 相似文献
19.
地学信息图谱研究及其应用 总被引：96，自引：10，他引：86
地学信息图谱综合了景观综合图的简洁性和数学模型的抽象性,它是现代空间技术与我国传统研究成果结合的产物,它可反演过去、预测未来。在分析地学信息图谱、生态系统发展战略、DLU土地利用战略、数学模型与地理信息系统集成等研究成果的基础上,提出了一个区域可持续发展虚拟系统。在这个虚拟系统中,如何将区域可持续发展的有关信息转换为征兆图、诊断图和实施图是其核心理论问题。数学模型计算机程序自动生成软件和开放式地理信息系统的研究成果表明,这些理论问题在不久的将来是可以解决的。也就是说,这个区域可持续发展虚拟系统的进一步研究,能够形成一个可操作的、实用的决策支持系统。 相似文献
20.
Bo Huang Li Zhang Bo Wu 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(3):379-398
Understanding the complexity of urban expansion requires an analysis of the factors influencing the spatial and temporal processes of rural–urban land conversion. This study aims at building a statistical land conversion model to assist in understanding land use change patterns. Specifically, GIS coupled with a logistic regression model and exponential smoothing techniques is used for exploring the effects of various factors on land use change. These factors include population density, slope, proximity to roads, and surrounding land use, and their influence on land use change is studied for generating a predictive model. Methods to reduce spatial autocorrelation in a logistic regression framework are also discussed. Primarily, an optimal sampling scheme that can eliminate spatial autocorrelation while maintaining adequate samples to allow the model to achieve the comparable accuracy as the spatial autoregressive model is developed. Since many of the previous studies on modeling the spatial complexity of urban growth ignored temporal complexity, a modified exponential smoothing technique is employed to produce a smoothed model from a series of bi‐temporal models obtained from different time periods. The proposed model is validated using the multi‐temporal land use data in New Castle County, DE, USA. It is demonstrated that our approach provides an effective option for multi‐temporal land use change modeling and the modeling results help interpret the land use change patterns. 相似文献