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液化危害评价的模糊概率方法及其应用 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
本文在建筑抗震设计规范(GBJ11-89)中有关液化势判别和液化危害评价规定的基础上,提出了一种考虑随机性和模糊性的新液化危害评价方法,与以往的研究相比,此法有以下特点: 1.文中分析了整个土层柱状的液化概率,而不只是研究一定深度上土层的液化概率; 2.文中应用隶属函数关系将液化危害等级划分建立在模糊集合论的基础之上; 3.对整个土层柱状的液化危害评价采用了模糊概率方法,从而为考虑各种不确定性影响提供了可能性。 本文的研究为将地基基础抗震设计方法建立在可靠度理论的基础之上提供了一定的依据。 相似文献
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饱和砂土地震液化有可能诱发极为严重的破坏,已成为土动力学领域的重要研究课题之一。对液化的判别分为初判和复判。初判指根据已有的勘测资料或简单的测试手段,初步判别土层的液化可能。对于初判可能发生地震液化的土层,则再进行复判。鉴于土层液化的影响因素较多,我国规范建议采取经验方法,即标准贯入法,静力触探法,剪切波速法。单一判别方法都有局限性和适用范围,宜用各种方法综合判别。液化危害性评价使用危害性指标,分析液化对建筑物的危害程度。评价方法主要有液化指数法,震陷值法,谱强度比法和综合法。以评价指标为依据,划分液化影响的综合等级,全面反映液化危害程度。 相似文献
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饱和砂土地震液化有可能诱发极为严重的破坏,已成为土动力学领域的重要研究课题之一。对液化的判别分为初判和复判。初判指根据已有的勘测资料或简单的测试手段,初步判别土层的液化可能。对于初判可能发生地震液化的土层,则再进行复判。鉴于土层液化的影响因素较多,我国规范建议采取经验方法,即标准贯入法,静力触探法,剪切波速法。单一判别方法都有局限性和适用范围,宜用各种方法综合判别。液化危害性评价使用危害性指标,分析液化对建筑物的危害程度。评价方法主要有液化指数法,震陷值法,谱强度比法和综合法。以评价指标为依据,划分液化影响的综合等级,全面反映液化危害程度。 相似文献
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《地震工程与工程振动》2016,(5)
对以往曾经发生显著液化的唐山地区和巴楚地区的土动力学性能进行对比研究,包括两个地区砂土相对密度与剪切波速关系、剪切波速与标准贯入击数关系等,以此深入了解两个重要地区土层的动力性能,为研究区域化液化判别方法提供基础。结果表明:现行抗震规范液化判别方法数据来源主要为唐山地区,明显不适用于新疆巴楚地区的液化判别;唐山地区与巴楚地区液化场地砂土取相同相对密度时,两个地区液化场地砂土剪切波速差别很小;但唐山地区与巴楚地区液化层砂土平均标准贯入击数和V_s~N_(63.5)关系曲线差异显著,表明以V_s~N_(63.5)关系区分不同地区砂土抗液化能力是可能的。 相似文献
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剪切波速是评估无黏性土力学性质的重要参数。为探究现行剪切波速液化判别方法不适用于砾性土场地的原因,利用自主研发的无黏性土剪切波速与相对密度联合测试系统,以汶川地震液化场地实测资料为参考,通过对福建标准砂和花岗岩圆砾按比例混合配制不同含砾量的砾性土试样在控制相对密度下的K0状态剪切波速试验,研究其含砾量对含砾无黏性土的剪切波速影响规律。试验结果表明:相对密度相同的砾性土剪切波速大于砂土,二者剪切波速比值与砾性土的含砾量成指数函数关系,两者比值最大为1.4;对于砾性土试样,在含砾量40%-60%间存在阀值,当含砾量小于该值,剪切波速随含砾量的增加明显增大,当含砾量大于该值,剪切波速的增长趋势放缓。试验研究指出了现行剪切波速判别方法不适用于砾性土场地的原因,揭示了含砾量与砾性土剪切波速的相互关系,提出了相同相对密度砾性土相对砂土的剪切波速修正公式,为建立新的判别方法提供了理论基础,也为岛礁珊瑚吹填土等宽级配无黏性新工程材料的性能研究拓展了技术手段。 相似文献
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《地震工程与工程振动》2016,(5)
从砾性土的定义出发,回顾了砾性土从被认为不会液化到其液化现象引起工程师关注的研究历程及国内外研究进展。总结了含砾量、相对密度等因素对砾性土抗液化能力影响关系的研究现状。介绍了国际上对砾性土场地液化判别的研究成果及各种主流方法的优势与不足;分析了剪切波速方法应用于砾性土场地液化判别的可行性。研究认为:砾性土的液化现象正逐渐被科学界及工程界接受;含砾量对砾性土抗液化能力的影响研究仍然存在较大矛盾,相对密度等影响砂土抗液化能力的因素同样影响砾性土抗液化能力;砂土场地应用的标准贯入、静力触探等液化判别方法不适用于砾性土场地,国际上发展了基于动力触探和贝克尔贯入试验的液化判别方法;剪切波速判别方法在砾性土场地的液化判别中具有优势和潜力,是今后研究的方向之一。 相似文献
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The current simplified methods for assessing soil liquefaction potential use a deterministic safety factor in order to judge whether liquefaction will occur or not. However, these methods are unable to determine the liquefaction probability related to a safety factor. An answer to this problem can be found by reliability analysis. This paper presents a reliability analysis method based on the popular Seed'85 liquefaction analysis method. This reliability method uses the empirical acceleration attenuation law in the Taiwan area to derive the probability density distribution function (PDF) and the statistics for the earthquake-induced cyclic shear stress ratio (CSR). The PDF and the statistics for the cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) can be deduced from some probabilistic cyclic resistance curves. These curves are produced by the regression of the liquefaction and non-liquefaction data from the Chi-Chi earthquake and others around the world, using, with minor modifications, the logistic model proposed by Liao [J. Geotech. Eng. 114 (1988) 389]. The CSR and CRR statistics are used in conjunction with the first order and second moment method, to calculate the relation between the liquefaction probability, the safety factor and the reliability index. Based on the proposed method, the liquefaction probability related to a safety factor can be easily calculated. The influence of some of the soil parameters on the liquefaction probability can be quantitatively evaluated. 相似文献
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A. Marcellini R. Daminelli G. Franceschina M. Pagani 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2001,21(5)
Recent earthquakes such as the MJMA 7.2 Hyogo-ken Nambu earthquake and the M 7.4 Kocaeli earthquake demonstrate once again the need to include detailed soil investigation into hazard evaluation, that is the need of microzonation. Seismic hazard assessment evaluated at a regional scale generally does not consider soil effects but only in a limited way using an attenuation law that can be ‘soft soil’ or ‘rock’. However, the relevant role of seismic hazard in the assessment of seismic coefficients for the definition of the actions in seismic codes must be properly considered. That is to say, the level of protection of buildings is proportional to a definite level of hazard (generally considered to be the ground motion with 10% probability of exceedence in 50 years). When a microzonation is performed, this criterion cannot be ignored, therefore, a clear linkage must be established between hazard (regional scale) and microzonation. The crucial point is represented by the reference motion (or input motion) to be used for site effects analysis, that must be compatible with the regional seismic hazard. In this paper, three different approaches for reference motion evaluation are analysed: probabilistic; stochastic; and deterministic. Through the case history of Fabriano microzonation the three approaches are compared. It is shown that each approach presents advantages and disadvantages with respect to the others. For example, the probabilistic approach (the reference motion is directly derived from the expected response spectra for a given return period) is linked with hazard, but produces an overestimation in short periods range, while the deterministic approach correctly simulates the wave propagation, but it ends with a kind of conditional probability. Until now, clear criteria to choose the right approach do not appear to exist and the expert experience is of fundamental importance. 相似文献
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Spatial variability of liquefaction potential in regional mapping using CPT and SPT data 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Cone penetration test (CPT) and standard penetration test (SPT) are widely used for the site specific evaluation of liquefaction potential and are getting increased use in the regional mapping of liquefaction hazard. This paper compares CPT and SPT-based liquefaction potential characterizations of regional geologic units using the liquefaction potential index (LPI) across the East Bay of the San Francisco Bay, California, USA and examines the statistical and spatial variability of LPI across and within geologic units. Overall, CPT-based LPI characterizations result in higher hazard than those derived from the SPT. This bias may result from either mis-classifications of soil type in the CPT or a bias in the CPT simplified procedure for liquefaction potential. Regional mapping based on cumulative distribution of LPI values show different results depending on which dataset is used. For both SPT and CPT-based characterizations, the geologic units in the area have broad LPI distributions that overlap between units and are not distinct from the population as a whole. Regional liquefaction classifications should therefore give a distribution, rather than a single hazard rating that does not provide for variability within the area. The CPT-based LPI values have a higher degree of spatial correlation and a lower variance over a greater distance than those estimated from SPTs. As a result, geostatistical interpolation can provide a detailed map of LPI when densely sampled CPT data are available. The statistical distribution of LPI within specific geologic units and interpolated maps of LPI can be used to understand the spatial variability of liquefaction potential. 相似文献
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饱和砂土地震液化判别的分形插值模型 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
借鉴分形基本理论,提出了基于分形插值模型的饱和砂土地震液化判别方法.该方法首先选取影响饱和砂土地震液化判别的7个主要因素,根据分类标准,采用在每级标准中随机内插的方法,得到40个标准样本,用于构建饱和砂土地震液化判别的分形插值模型;其次根据最大似然分类原则确定每个饱和砂土地震液化判别指标的评价分维数;然后利用加权求和法计算样本的综合评价值,并根据样本综合评价值与经验等级之间的关系建立分形插值评价模型;最后,进行了实例分析结果表明:该模型的评价结果合理、客观,计算得到的每个样本具体得分值,即使对属于同一级的样本也可以给出其地震液化程度的顺序,为饱和砂土地震液化评价工作提供了一种新的研究方法与思路. 相似文献
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1976年唐山地震期间,附近一些地区出现了砂土液化现象。本文根据工程勘探中的实例及实验数据,进行了砂土液化作用的统计和综合预测。文章中采用贝叶斯准则下的逐步判别分析方法,对唐山地区已知液化地点和非液化地点,作了五种检验计算,挑选出准确度及可靠性最高的变量模式。从而,对于当地震为Ⅷ度烈度时的砂土液化进行了预测。五种预测结果相同,互相印证,可靠性高,分组最大后验概率大多在0.99以上。在此条件下,外推预测结果可信。工程实践中,迫切需要对砂土液化进行综合性预测,而一般采用地质学或试验方法,仅能对砂土液化作单因素或少量因素下的预测,本文提出了综合性的通用预测方法,为砂土液化统计预测提供了新途径。砂土液化是平原地区的一种重要地震灾害。国内外多次大地震中,都曾因饱水砂土受到地震作用,引起孔隙水压增高及砂粒间的结合力和摩擦力降低,而使砂层发生液化状态的流动,并伴随有地基承载能力降低或失效。1964年以来,新潟地震及阿拉斯加地震时,由砂土液化造成了罕见的灾害。激发了各国、尤其是美国和日本对砂土液化预测的研究。但还多是单因素或少量因素影响下的分析方法。未能进行综合分析及推断。采用数理统计方法,可以综合分 相似文献
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Brendon A. Bradley Misko Cubrinovski Rajesh P. Dhakal Gregory A. MacRae 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2010,30(5):395-411
This paper presents the probabilistic seismic performance and loss assessment of an actual bridge–foundation–soil system, the Fitzgerald Avenue twin bridges in Christchurch, New Zealand. A two-dimensional finite element model of the longitudinal direction of the system is modelled using advanced soil and structural constitutive models. Ground motions at multiple levels of intensity are selected based on the seismic hazard deaggregation at the site. Based on rigorous examination of several deterministic analyses, engineering demand parameters (EDP's), which capture the global and local demand, and consequent damage to the bridge and foundation are determined. A probabilistic seismic loss assessment of the structure considering both direct repair and loss of functionality consequences was performed to holistically assess the seismic risk of the system.It was found that the non-horizontal stratification of the soils, liquefaction, and soil–structure interaction had pronounced effects on the seismic demand distribution of the bridge components, of which the north abutment piles and central pier were critical in the systems seismic performance. The consequences due to loss of functionality of the bridge during repair were significantly larger than the direct repair costs, with over a 2% in 50 year probability of the total loss exceeding twice the book-value of the structure. 相似文献
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De-yi Feng Jing-ping Gu Ming-zhou Lin Shao-xie Xu Xue-jun Yu 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1984,122(6):982-997
A probabilistic method and a retrieval method of fuzzy information are simultaneously studied for assessment of earthquake hazard, or earthquake prediction. Statistical indices of regional seismicity in three adjacent time intervals are used to predict an earthquake in the next interval. The indices are earthquake frequency, the maximum magnitude, and a parameter related to the average magnitude (orb-value) and their time derivatives. Applying the probabilistic method, we can estimate a probability for a large earthquake with magnitude larger than a certain threshold occurring in the next time interval in a given region. By using the retrieval method of fuzzy information we can classify time intervals into several classes according to the regional seismic activity in each time interval and then evaluate whether or not the next time interval belongs to seismically hazardous time interval with a large earthquake. Some examples of applying both methods to the North section of the North-South Seismic Zone in China are shown. The results obtained are in good agreement with actual earthquake history. A comparison of the probabilistic method with the method of fuzzy mathematics is made, and it is recommended that earthquake hazard be assessed by simultaneous use of both methods. 相似文献